Monthly Archives: July 2014

Mariners Acquire Kendrys Morales, Try to Trade for Drew Stubbs

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GM Jack Zduriencik’s ears must have been burning. That, or he is an avid follower of Mission Mariner.

Just hours after we questioned why the Mariners were waiting so long to acquire a desperately needed bat before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, Zduriencik promptly went out and traded for former Mariner Kendrys Morales to take over the designated hitter duties.

Coincidence?

All kidding aside, the Mariners made a deft move by picking up the switch hitting Morales. Not only did they acquire a bona fide hitter that is proven at Safeco Field (.811 OPS at home for the Mariners last season) but Zduriencik only had to part with relief pitcher Stephen Pryor, who has been recovering from an arm injury all season. When healthy, Pryor is a solid bullpen arm, but his departure had no adverse effect on the Mariners relief corps.  And by not having to give up any of their top prospects, the Mariners retain the ability to pursue additional trades.

Morales will join the Mariners tonight for the second of four game series against the Baltimore Orioles. And none too soon. The Mariners offense has been struggling the past month, averaging a mere 2 runs per game.  They have lost 12 of their last 19, including last nights 4-0 loss to the Orioles.   The Mariners managed just 5 hits, and were shut out for the 12th time this season, second most in the American League.  Worse, the loss dropped the Mariners out of sole possession of the second wild card – a spot they’ve held since June 24 – and now find themselves 0.5 games behind both the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

Adding another hitter appears to be on the agenda for Zduriencik, as recent reports indicate the Mariners made a formal trade offer to Colorado for centerfielder Drew Stubbs. The former top prospect for the Cincinnati Reds has resurrected his career with the Rockies this season, slashing a .297/.335/.498. However, Colorado’s thin air is notorious for inflating offensive numbers, and that appears to be the case with Stubbs. At Coors Field this season, Stubbs is slashing a monstrous .351/.379/.619. But away from Coors, Stubbs is putting up a meager .229/.277/.343.   With those kinds of home/road splits, one would have to wonder why Zduriencik would be interested in acquiring Stubbs? Yes, Stubbs would provide manager Lloyd McClendon another right handed hitter who could provide above average defense in the outfield. But for a team needing offense, such drastic splits should be a gigantic red flag.

While other teams find themselves gaining momentum, the wind has left the Mariners sails. The Mariners finally added some offensive help, and Morales is a definite upgrade. But the addition of another hitter or two will be needed if the Mariners have any hope of keeping pace with their competition. With six days still to go before the deadline, there is time for the Mariners add more offensive pieces.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t take as long to do so as it did for Zduriencik to add Morales.

As the Mariners Continue to Sink, Zduriencik Continues to Wait

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It’s like a scene out of the movie, Titanic.

The ship is sinking; passengers are drowning; and those few who were able to escape into the safety of life boats – knowing they need to go back and help those struggling to keep their heads above the frigid waters – are hesitant to do so for fear of a worst-case scenario taking place. And with each passing minute that goes by while those in charge debate over how and when the best time to act is, the situation simply becomes direr for those fighting to stay alive.

Unlike the Titanic, the Mariners haven’t hit a massive iceberg, quickly sinking them in their quest for the playoffs. Rather, it’s been more like a small leak in their hull since setting sail. One that the captain decided to patch with duct tape believing their destination could be reached before the situation became too critical.

But now, a little more than half-way to their terminus, it’s become apparent the duct tape isn’t holding; the good ship Mariner is quickly taking on water; and without addressing the problem, the ship and its crew will submerge before reaching port.

For most of the season, the Mariners have been carried by its pitching, where they currently rank 1st in the American League in BA against (.230), OBP against (.291), and WHIP (1.15); and 2nd in ERA (3.45) and OPS against (.644).  The Mariner offense, however, has been a far different story, ranking last in OBP (.300) and OPS (.675), and second to last in BA (.246) and RS per game (3.94).

And while the pitching continues to perform, the offense – as unfathomable as it may sound – finds itself in further decline.

As noted in a previous post, the Mariners offense this season has thrived in hitting with runners in scoring position. Upon concluding their three game series against the Astros on July 2nd, the Mariners were producing a .686 OPS and 4.2 runs per game. However, in their last 16 games since then, the Mariners have produced a .619 OPS and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. During that 16 game span, the Mariners have gone 6-10.

With such lackluster hitting, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should feel fortunate to find themselves in the position they are in, and should feel confident about their playoff chances with the addition of an offensive piece or two.   The need for more offense is no secret, as the Mariners have been linked to nearly every available hitter out there. But with the trade deadline just over a week away, the Mariners continue to wait for the “right” deal to present itself while their competitors – the Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Royals, Tigers – have already made moves to strengthen their respective teams.

While it’s understandable that Zduriencik wants to be diligent with possibly dealing away a top prospect like Taijuan Walker, or taking on an aging veteran like Marlon Byrd, the waiting game can be a dangerous endeavor. Rather than identifying a need and quickly addressing it, the decision to wait for the perfect trade scenario can allow for circumstances to change and, thus, for opportunities to be lost.

The danger that can come from waiting too long should not be foreign to Zduriencik, as last year’s decision to try and wait out the market for Josh Hamilton ended up backfiring. While the Mariners appeared to be the only team willing to come close to Hamilton’s  asking price, Zduriencik’s drawn out negotiations with Hamilton allowed the Angels to have a change of heart and sign him in response to the Dodgers unexpected acquisition of Zack Greinke. Had the Mariners acted quickly and made their four-year plus two option years offer to Hamilton much earlier in the process, Zduriencik most likely would have gotten his man.

This past offseason, Zduriencik seemed to have learned from that mistake by jumping out into the forefront of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes. Rather than trying to wait out the market or prolong the negotiations by tinkering with low-ball offers – thereby allowing time for other teams to decide whether or not to join in the bidding – Zduriencik came out fast and furious by making an offer that just didn’t beat the Yankees 7-year, $160M offer, but obliterated it by an additional 3 years and $80M. For the first time in the Zduriencik era, the Mariners recognized a need, and then addressed that need quickly without allowing money to be an obstacle.

But that “see a need and immediately address it” approach has apparently gone by the wayside. With the Mariners’ grasp on the second wild card slowly slipping, and the need for offensive help resonating louder than a fog horn blaring through a midnight haze, Zduriencik continues to wait.

And so far, it’s been to the Mariners’ detriment.

With their starting pitching still hampered by injuries, and rookie Roenis Elias showing signs of wearing down, the Mariners had interest in acquiring Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel to shore up their rotation. However, before they could formulate an offer, the Athletics – also needing to bolster a rotation hit hard by the injury bug – quickly swooped in and traded for both players.

The Mariners then turned their sights on David Price and/or Ben Zobrist but wavered on the prospect of dealing Taijuan Walker and taking on Price’s contract. Those talks are now on hold as the once fading Rays suddenly find themselves winning, and now threatening the Mariners for the second wild card.

Early on, Byrd seemed like an obvious fit for the Mariners, as acquiring the 36-year old left fielder would probably not have required the Mariners to part with their top prospects. But interest in Byrd subsided as the Mariners pondered whether to agree to Byrd’s request to have his $8M option for 2016 guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In the meantime, the Royals and Reds have emerged as strong contenders for Byrd’s services, and the Yankees recent trade for OF/3B Chase Headley has eliminated one more hitter from the pool of available bats, thereby increasing Byrd’s value as a result.

Probably the worst consequence of the Mariners’ hesitation is they have allowed the competition for offensive help amongst playoff contending teams to grow considerably. Three weeks ago, there were only 4 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Two weeks ago, there were 5 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Today, 7 teams are now within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. By the July 31 deadline, 8 teams could be within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card, assuming of course the Mariners can hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays, both of whom are just 0.5 games back.

With their stellar pitching and defense, there is no question the Mariners could make a serious run in the playoffs. However, is there is enough offense, currently, to get them into October? Right now, all signs point to no. There are players available that would help right the ship. The question, though, is whether the Mariners will act in order to keep them afloat, or do nothing and risk plummeting in the wild card standings?   With only seven days to go before the trade deadline, the answer shall be known soon enough.

Forget Giancarlo Stanton, Mariners Should Deal for Marcell Ozuna

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With the All-Star Game now concluded, the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline looms large on the horizon. The Mariners find themselves holding one of the two wild card playoff spots, and are reportedly scouring the list of possible players that could be acquired to help them in their quest to make the post season for the first time since 2001. While trading for a starting pitcher is a need, the Mariners have been offensively-challenged for most of the season, and obtaining a (right handed) hitter to go with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager should be the priority.

The outfield is the obvious area of need, and the Mariners have been linked to a handful of players who would serve as immediate upgrades. Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Matt Kemp, Josh Willingham, Dayan Viciedo and Ben Zobrist are just a few of the names the Mariners have been rumored to be showing interest in. Each of these players would be welcomed second half additions, and would provide sorely needed pop from the right side.  What the Mariners are willing to give up in return is the unknown question. It’s been reported the Mariners either want a young player who can be a part of the future, or a veteran with an expiring contract. Either way, the Mariners have the blue chip prospects – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Nick Franklin and D.J. Peterson – to land virtually any available player on the trade market.

Of course, the biggest name out there is the Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton. The 24-year old outfielder has been the most sought-after player the past few seasons. And while the Marlins have thus far been reluctant to move him, most figure it’s just a matter of time before Stanton is traded.

Stanton, obviously, would be an incredible addition for the Mariners. A Cano-Stanton-Seager middle of the order would be one of the best hitting trios in baseball.   But Miami has made it clear that Stanton is staying put this season, and any ideas of a trade is simply wishful thinking. Even if Stanton were available, the bidding war that would surely ensue would almost certainly require the Mariners to part with most of their top prospects, and maybe a young major leaguer or two. And after spending years rebuilding their minor league system, it’s hard to imagine GM Jack Zduriencik depleting his farm for just a single player.

The Marlins, however, do have another outfielder on their roster who isn’t just a fantastic notion, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Stanton, and who is the player the Mariners should be targeting above all others. That player is centerfielder Marcell Ozuna.

For the Mariners, centerfield has been an Achilles heel this season. First, it was the failed experiment of rookie Abraham Almonte. After producing a disastrous .198/.248/.292 in his first 27 games, the Mariners demoted Almonte and called up fellow rookie James Jones to take over the centerfield duties. While Jones has been an improvement offensively, slashing a .287/.318/.352, his defensive metrics (so far) grade out to being below average to poor with a -5.8 UZR and a -10 DRS.

A quality defensive centerfielder with offensive upside should have been the first priority for Zduriencik during the offseason. At the time, we here at Mission Mariner believed there was a window of opportunity for the Mariners to try and deal for the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez. With the Brewers now leading their division, any chance of landing Gomez has vanished. But with Ozuna, the Mariners may have another opportunity to solidify centerfield and upgrade the offense with a player who could be as good as, or even better, than Gomez.

Entering 2013, the, then, 22-year old Ozuna was ranked 75th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list. He was called up near the end of April after Stanton was placed on the disabled list, and in his 70 games thereafter, Ozuna produced a respectable .265/.303/.389, a 90 wRC+, and provided above average defense in centerfield (2.7 UZR, -2 DRS) and right field (6.9 UZR, 4 DRS).

This season, Ozuna was named the starting centerfielder for the Marlins over Jake Marisnick (more on him later) and is currently slashing a .276/.323/.463, has hit 15 homeruns, and is tied for 7th among all MLB centerfielders with a 117 wRC+. Ozuna has shined on defense as well, ranking 3rd among all MLB centerfielders with a DRS of 9.

Naturally, one would have to ask why the money-conscious Marlins would want to part with a young, up-and-coming, cost-controlled player who won’t be eligible for free agency until 2020? One look would tell anyone that Miami’s outfield is set for the foreseeable future with Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton.

Enter, Marisnick.

Marisnick is a five-tool player rated as the top hitting and defensive outfield prospect in the Marlins’ minor league system. Coming into this season, the 23-year old was ranked 79th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, and is the player most within the Marlins organization consider to be the team’s centerfielder of the future. With Marisnick now ready to break into the Marlin’s starting lineup, Ozuna could be expendable especially if it means obtaining top MLB ready prospects in return. The Marlins have been said to be seeking a young, cost controlled pitcher as well as a second baseman of the same stature.  The Mariners have both at their disposal.  

To obtain Ozuna, the Mariners could put together an attractive package centered around top prospects Walker and Franklin, both of whom could contribute immediately for the Marlins. Given the fact the Athletics recently traded the #14 rated MLB prospect plus some secondary pieces to acquire Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, trading the #11 MLB prospect in Walker plus last year’s #79 rated MLB prospect in Franklin should be enough to acquire Ozuna’s services.

However, Ozuna’s age, upside, and success at the MLB level could compel the Marlins to try and leverage the Mariners to part with, say, Walker and Peterson. Is Walker and Peterson too steep a price to pay? Possibly. But with all-star Seager entrenched at 3B, Peterson will ostensibly have to move to 1B, thereby decreasing his overall value to the Mariners. If Seattle were to be reluctant to include Peterson, they could sweeten the deal by throwing in a second tier prospect such as 3B Patrick Kivlehan, or perhaps include another young MLB arm with upside like Erasmo Ramirez or Brandon Maurer to go along with Walker and Franklin.

Giving up such players may seem a bit steep.   But the Mariners would be trading from positions of organizational strength to fill an area of organizational weakness. As the old adage goes, one has to give up talent to acquire talent. And Ozuna, at a very young age, is showing to be the kind of talent that can not only help the Mariners win today, but help them win for many years to come.

And that is a price worth paying for.

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.