As the Mariners Continue to Sink, Zduriencik Continues to Wait

It’s like a scene out of the movie, Titanic.

The ship is sinking; passengers are drowning; and those few who were able to escape into the safety of life boats – knowing they need to go back and help those struggling to keep their heads above the frigid waters – are hesitant to do so for fear of a worst-case scenario taking place. And with each passing minute that goes by while those in charge debate over how and when the best time to act is, the situation simply becomes direr for those fighting to stay alive.

Unlike the Titanic, the Mariners haven’t hit a massive iceberg, quickly sinking them in their quest for the playoffs. Rather, it’s been more like a small leak in their hull since setting sail. One that the captain decided to patch with duct tape believing their destination could be reached before the situation became too critical.

But now, a little more than half-way to their terminus, it’s become apparent the duct tape isn’t holding; the good ship Mariner is quickly taking on water; and without addressing the problem, the ship and its crew will submerge before reaching port.

For most of the season, the Mariners have been carried by its pitching, where they currently rank 1st in the American League in BA against (.230), OBP against (.291), and WHIP (1.15); and 2nd in ERA (3.45) and OPS against (.644).  The Mariner offense, however, has been a far different story, ranking last in OBP (.300) and OPS (.675), and second to last in BA (.246) and RS per game (3.94).

And while the pitching continues to perform, the offense – as unfathomable as it may sound – finds itself in further decline.

As noted in a previous post, the Mariners offense this season has thrived in hitting with runners in scoring position. Upon concluding their three game series against the Astros on July 2nd, the Mariners were producing a .686 OPS and 4.2 runs per game. However, in their last 16 games since then, the Mariners have produced a .619 OPS and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. During that 16 game span, the Mariners have gone 6-10.

With such lackluster hitting, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should feel fortunate to find themselves in the position they are in, and should feel confident about their playoff chances with the addition of an offensive piece or two.   The need for more offense is no secret, as the Mariners have been linked to nearly every available hitter out there. But with the trade deadline just over a week away, the Mariners continue to wait for the “right” deal to present itself while their competitors – the Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Royals, Tigers – have already made moves to strengthen their respective teams.

While it’s understandable that Zduriencik wants to be diligent with possibly dealing away a top prospect like Taijuan Walker, or taking on an aging veteran like Marlon Byrd, the waiting game can be a dangerous endeavor. Rather than identifying a need and quickly addressing it, the decision to wait for the perfect trade scenario can allow for circumstances to change and, thus, for opportunities to be lost.

The danger that can come from waiting too long should not be foreign to Zduriencik, as last year’s decision to try and wait out the market for Josh Hamilton ended up backfiring. While the Mariners appeared to be the only team willing to come close to Hamilton’s  asking price, Zduriencik’s drawn out negotiations with Hamilton allowed the Angels to have a change of heart and sign him in response to the Dodgers unexpected acquisition of Zack Greinke. Had the Mariners acted quickly and made their four-year plus two option years offer to Hamilton much earlier in the process, Zduriencik most likely would have gotten his man.

This past offseason, Zduriencik seemed to have learned from that mistake by jumping out into the forefront of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes. Rather than trying to wait out the market or prolong the negotiations by tinkering with low-ball offers – thereby allowing time for other teams to decide whether or not to join in the bidding – Zduriencik came out fast and furious by making an offer that just didn’t beat the Yankees 7-year, $160M offer, but obliterated it by an additional 3 years and $80M. For the first time in the Zduriencik era, the Mariners recognized a need, and then addressed that need quickly without allowing money to be an obstacle.

But that “see a need and immediately address it” approach has apparently gone by the wayside. With the Mariners’ grasp on the second wild card slowly slipping, and the need for offensive help resonating louder than a fog horn blaring through a midnight haze, Zduriencik continues to wait.

And so far, it’s been to the Mariners’ detriment.

With their starting pitching still hampered by injuries, and rookie Roenis Elias showing signs of wearing down, the Mariners had interest in acquiring Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel to shore up their rotation. However, before they could formulate an offer, the Athletics – also needing to bolster a rotation hit hard by the injury bug – quickly swooped in and traded for both players.

The Mariners then turned their sights on David Price and/or Ben Zobrist but wavered on the prospect of dealing Taijuan Walker and taking on Price’s contract. Those talks are now on hold as the once fading Rays suddenly find themselves winning, and now threatening the Mariners for the second wild card.

Early on, Byrd seemed like an obvious fit for the Mariners, as acquiring the 36-year old left fielder would probably not have required the Mariners to part with their top prospects. But interest in Byrd subsided as the Mariners pondered whether to agree to Byrd’s request to have his $8M option for 2016 guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In the meantime, the Royals and Reds have emerged as strong contenders for Byrd’s services, and the Yankees recent trade for OF/3B Chase Headley has eliminated one more hitter from the pool of available bats, thereby increasing Byrd’s value as a result.

Probably the worst consequence of the Mariners’ hesitation is they have allowed the competition for offensive help amongst playoff contending teams to grow considerably. Three weeks ago, there were only 4 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Two weeks ago, there were 5 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Today, 7 teams are now within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. By the July 31 deadline, 8 teams could be within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card, assuming of course the Mariners can hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays, both of whom are just 0.5 games back.

With their stellar pitching and defense, there is no question the Mariners could make a serious run in the playoffs. However, is there is enough offense, currently, to get them into October? Right now, all signs point to no. There are players available that would help right the ship. The question, though, is whether the Mariners will act in order to keep them afloat, or do nothing and risk plummeting in the wild card standings?   With only seven days to go before the trade deadline, the answer shall be known soon enough.

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