To say the New Year has brought change to the Seattle Mariners would be a drastic understatement.  A flurry of transactions this off-season by GM Jerry Dipoto has resulted in 18 players being removed from the 40-man roster inherited from Jack Zduriencik.  A Mariners squad that went a disappointing 76-86 in 2015 has been reshaped into the type of team Dipoto envisions being playoff caliber.  Gone is a manager predisposed to “old school” thinking rather than advanced analytics. Gone are players deficient in athleticism, defense, and the ability to get on base.  Gone is a starting rotation lacking depth, and a bullpen lacking versatility.

In their places come a slew of new faces, most notably first time manager Scott Servais; starting pitchers Wade Miley and Nate Karns; relievers Steve Cishek and Joaquin Benoit; and position players Adam Lind, Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin, and Chris Iannetta.

It’s been nearly three weeks of inactivity since the surprise December 18^th resigning of Hisashi Iwakuma. By all accounts, Dipoto has finished making significant moves this off-season.  The question now is: are the Mariners really improved?

For many, Dipoto’s first off-season with the Mariners comes with skepticism.  No acquisition of a big bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. Nor the addition of a front line starter such as Zach Greinke or David Price.  Instead, fans saw the acquisition of players many were unfamiliar with, and a suspect bullpen becoming even weaker by dealing away Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith.

But acquiring expensive household names was never Dipoto’s plan.  Nor was investing the majority of available payroll into just one big time player. Rather, the plan was to spread the money around in order to assemble a defense better suited to the expanse of Safeco Field, to fashion a roster more athletic and consisting of a productive Plan B in case Plan A did not work out, to lengthen the starting rotation, and construct a more versatile bullpen with arms that had a propensity to miss bats.

And in that sense – at least on paper – Dipoto succeeded.

Martin and his 15.4 UZR/150 from last year should provide gold glove-caliber defense in center field, with Aoki providing plus defense in left field (7.0 UZR/150) and a solid ability to get on base (.353 OBP).  Lind and his .291/.364/.478 over that past three seasons will be a huge upgrade over Logan Morrison at first base.  Iannetta solidifies the catcher position with solid defense, excellent pitch framing abilities, and improved offensive output even if he repeats his .188/.293/.335 from last season. Miley and Karns add two solid starting rotation arms to the mix of Felix Hernandez, Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. And Cishek (2.98 ERA, 77 saves the past three seasons) and Benoit (1.98 ERA, 37 saves the past three seasons) fortify the back of a bullpen that amassed 24 blown saves in 2015.

Even wins above replacement (WAR) projections by Fangraphs’ Depth Charts (combining Steamer and ZiPS) show a marked improvement.  Last season, the Mariners finished with a team WAR of 24.4.  Depth Charts projects a team WAR of 36.1 for 2016, translating to an 84-78 record. The chart below shows positional WAR totals from 2015 and projections for the upcoming season.

	C	1B	2B	SS	3B	LF	CF	RF	DH	SP	RP
2015	-1.9	-0.7	1.6	2.2	3.9	3.2	1.1	7.4	4.6	8.7	1.1
2016	2.6	1.8	3.5	1.8	3.7	1.3	1.7	1.7	1.6	14.6	1.8

As indicated, Depth Charts projects improvements at catcher, first base, second base, center field, starting pitching, and the bullpen.  However, Depth Charts also foresees a slide at left field, right field and designated hitter.  Two interesting things to note is the fairly significant projected drop in WAR in right field and designated hitter, and the fairly significant projected increase in WAR from the starting pitching.

Depth Charts’ projections for Cruz are probably the major contributor for the decrease in WAR in right field and designated hitter where Cruz falls from 4.8 last season to a 1.6 in 2016.  This is surely based on the belief Cruz will spend the majority of time entrenched at designated hitter (546 plate appearances) and far less time in right field (70 plate appearances). Depending on how one views Cruz’s defensive prowess moving forward, keeping him off the field is probably a good thing.  But for the purposes of WAR, the lack of any defensive production at all probably accounts for the slip.  As for the starting rotation, Hernandez (5.0 WAR), Iwakuma (2.9 WAR), and Walker (2.4 WAR) lead a deep rotation that adds Miley (1.9 WAR) and Karns (1.3 WAR).  The wild card in the group is Paxton who is recovering from injury.  If healthy and able to pitch a full season, he most certainly would surpass the 0.8 WAR projected for him.

So, in terms of playoffs, what does this all mean?  Despite the overall team improvement, Depth Charts still has the Mariners finishing second in the division to the Houston Astros (39.7 WAR), and behind the Yankees (41.8 WAR) and Blue Jays (39.0 WAR) for one of the two wild card playoff spots. Does that mean Dipoto should go out and acquire a player like Cespedes and his projected 3.1 WAR?  I’m guessing most fans wouldn’t have a problem adding a player like Cespedes to the mix. But with a 15% margin of error, projecting the Mariners at a 36.1 WAR and the Astros at a 39.7 WAR could be projecting the Mariners at 41.5 WAR (+15%) and the Astros at 34.1 WAR (-15%), or somewhere in between. From an advanced analytics standpoint, a player such as Cespedes may be seen as an unnecessary expense.

Of course, all of this is really guesswork. Depth Charts is just one of many available projection systems. Others like Marcel or PECOTA may have the Mariners faring better or worse.  In addition, projected WAR totals are simply based on past production, and does not account for the myriad of unforeseen variables that can occur over the course of a regular season such as injuries.  But despite the uncertainties with WAR, it still remains a relevant (and fun) tool as every GM constructs their rosters using the same basic principal: utilizing a player’s past production to predict future success.  And if the projections for the players Dipoto has assembled hold fairly true, there’s no reason to believe the Mariners won’t find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt come the end of the season.