Last season, Jerry Dipoto’s first foray into the offseason as GM of the Seattle Mariners involved reconstructing an entire bullpen, finding two starting pitchers, and filling holes at first base, catcher, left field, and center field. His offseason moves translated into an 86 win season, second place in the AL West, and just missing out on the playoffs.

Heading into 2017, Dipoto still has work to do but the challenges are not near as daunting. At the top of Dipoto’s wish list are finding a right handed bat to platoon at first base with rookie Dan Vogelbach, a left-handed reliever, and a corner outfielder.

As was the case last season, Dipoto has come out of the offseason gates quickly, having already made trades for catcher Carlos Ruiz, first baseman/designated hitter Danny Valencia, and shortstop Jean Segura. Below is our offseason plan, with corresponding updates.

So, without further ado…

• Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B/OF Stefan Romero and minor league RHP Brandon Miller to the Miami Marlins for OF Marcel Ozuna and SS Adeiny Hechavarria. 

Dipoto enters the offseason with only one everyday outfielder on his 25-man roster: center fielder Leonys Martin. With Nelson Cruz set to see even more time at designated hitter, Seth Smith strictly a platoon player, and Franklin Gutierrez most likely having played his last game wearing blue and green, the Mariners find themselves short on experienced outfielders.  Youngsters Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel showed flashes of being solid everyday players, however, the two have a total of 164 at-bats between them at the mlb level.

To address this problem, Dipoto revisits the Ozuna trade talks from last offseason, this time agreeing to part with the talented, yet inconsistent and injury-prone Walker. Last season was another up and down year for Walker, one in which he showcased stretches of pure dominance as well as looking completely lost.  Still, Walker is young, cost-controlled, and has a high ceiling.  In a market where average starting pitching commands big dollars and multi-year contracts, Walker’s young age and high ceiling still renders him a desirable asset.  In Romero, the Marlins acquire a young hitter who can compete for the team’s need for a right-handed platoon bat at first base. Romero has produced against minor league pitching throughout his career, averaging a .299/.347/.514 at Tacoma, but is out of options with the Mariners.  Romero could fill the Mariners own platoon need at first base, however, having two inexperienced players at that position is not ideal. And should Romero struggle, the Mariners would be left with no alternative but to release him.

With the addition of Ozuna, Dipoto adds another young, athletic outfielder who can hit and play superb defense. Dipoto has expressed his preference to have Ketel Marte begin 2017 in Tacoma so he can further hone his shortstop skills.  Inserting Hechavarria as the everyday shortstop will allow such a wish.  Hechavarria struggled at the plate last year, slashing a .236/.283/.311, but some of that could be attributed to a slight dip in his babip, down from his career mark of .310 to .269.  In his previous two seasons, Hechavarria averaged a .278/.311/.676 so the ability to be a league average hitter exists.  And with Hechavarria’s defense, league average offensive production would be more than enough.  All Hechavarria did defensively last season was put up an 8.3 UZR and +9 DRS.  The year before, a 15.8 UZR and +9 DRS.  Even with his dismal showing at the place, Hechavarria was still worth 0.4 fWAR in 2016.  In comparison, Marte’s value came in at -0.7 fWAR.

Update: Dipoto pulled the trigger on the biggest deal of the offseason so far, trading Walker and Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for all-star shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-handed pitcher Zac Curtis.  While we felt finding an upgrade in the outfield should be priority number one – with Walker the asset to accomplish such a need – it’s hard to argue with the addition of Segura.   

Swapping out Marte for Segura (319/.368/.499, 20 homeruns, 33 steals shortstop, 5.0 fWAR in 2016) provides an instant upgrade and a legitimate leadoff hitter to the lineup. Haniger brings defense at all three outfield positions and a right handed bat that can spell Gamel and/or Smith against left handed pitching, and Curtis provides much needed left handed pitching depth, with the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Mariners’ bullpen.   

• Trade minor league prospects SP Zach Lee and OF Gareth Morgan to the New York Yankees for OF Brett Gardner, and 
• Trade OF Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for RP Trevor Rosenthal. 

With Ozuna set as the new right fielder, the Mariners turn their focus towards left field. Gamel is slated to start in one of the corner outfield positions, but the to-be 25 year old rookie has only 33 major league games under his belt and a .188/.278/.292 to show for it.  Given those facts, it would be difficult to believe Dipoto wouldn’t go with someone better if available.

That “someone better” would be Gardner, as it is reported the Yankees are listening to offers for the veteran outfielder. In Gardner, Dipoto is able to fill two glaring needs: finding an established left fielder and someone to hit at the top of the batting order.  Last year, Gardner split time with Jacoby Ellsbury at the leadoff spot, slashing a 261/.351/.362 with 16 stolen bases.  Gardner still possesses one of the better hitter’s eyes in baseball, posting a 0.66 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  And the former center fielder showed he can still flash the leather, producing a 5.7 UZR/150 while winning his first gold glove.

In exchange, the Mariners part with minor league pitcher Zach Lee and outfielder Gareth Morgan. Lee, 25, a former first round draft pick and top 100 prospect, came to the Mariners in last year’s trade that sent Chris Taylor to the Dodgers and should be able to compete for a spot in the Yankees rotation.   Lee struggled some in 2016 going a combined 7-14 with a 6.14 ERA with Triple-A Oklahoma City and Tacoma.  His 2015 season with Oklahoma City was much more akin to his top prospect billing as he went 11-6 with a 2.70 ERA, 81 strikeouts and only 19 walks.  The 6’4, 220 pound Morgan, 20, was a second round pick in 2014 and possesses a quick bat and impressive power.  Morgan’s swing and miss tendencies have hurt his overall ability as a hitter. However, scouts believe should Morgan improve his contact ability, he profiles as a legitimate middle of the order bat.

With Gardner and Ozuna set in the corner outfield positions, the Mariners look to deal from their excess of outfielders, sending Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for reliever Trevor Rosenthal.   Smith, used primarily against right handed pitching, produced a .758 OPS with 16 homeruns in 2016.  Rosenthal served as the Cardinals closer in 2014 and 2015, averaging 46 saves and a 2.65 ERA.  But last season Rosenthal struggled with his command in save situations, issuing 14 walks in 16 innings and four blown saves to start the season.  Rosenthal eventually lost his closer role to Seung Hwan Oh who went on to save 19 games with a 1.92 ERA.  With Oh set to be Cardinal closer in 2017, and Smith and Rosenthal due to make roughly the same amount in salary ($7M), the two teams swap contracts allowing the Mariners to add another high octane arm to their bullpen, and the Cardinals filling their need for a productive outfielder.   

• Trade UT Mike Freeman to the San Diego Padres for LHR Brad Hand. 

Last season’s deadline deal sending Mike Montgomery to the Chicago Cubs for Vogelbach left Vidal Nuno as the lone left hander in the Mariners’ bullpen. In his quest to find a replacement, Dipoto turns to San Diego left-hander Brad Hand.  Claimed off waivers from the Miami Marlins at the beginning of last season, Hand proceeded to go 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA for the Padres and limited lefty swingers to just a .125/.221/.200.   In exchange for Hand, the Mariners send the Padres utility infielder Mike Freeman who saw time at second base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions between stops in Arizona and Seattle last year.  With former Mariner Luis Sardinas in line to be the Padres opening day starter at shortstop, the addition of Freeman adds extra depth and insurance in case Sardinas struggles.

• Sign 1B/OF Steve Pearce to a 2 year/$11M contract.

The Mariners’ search for a right-handed bat to pair with Vogelbach at first base brings them to a player we advocated for last year. As we profiled in our 2016 offseason plan, Pearce lacks the traditional homerun power normally desired from the position, but brings with him a productive bat that put up a .288/.374/.492 last season as well as a track record of success against left-handed pitching. For his career, Pearce owns an .852 OPS against southpaws, including a 1.028 OPS last season. In addition, Pearce’s ability to play both corner outfield positions as well as second and third base provides valuable versatility.  At the end of the season, Pearce underwent surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm and may not be ready by the beginning of the season. So health is a consideration for any team interested in his services. However, all indications are that Pearce will be fully recovered by the first month of the season.

Update: Dipoto filled his need for a right-handed bat at first base by trading minor league pitcher Paul Blackburn to the Oakland Athletics for Danny Valencia. Like Pearce, Valencia lacks the traditional power of a first baseman but is productive against left-handed pitching and can play first, second and third base, as well as both corner outfield positions. For his career, Valencia has produced an .873 OPS against left-handed pitching, including a .924 OPS in 2016. Valencia is third year arbitration eligible and projected to make $5.3M this season, so his acquisition most likely saves Dipoto from having to lock into a multi-year deal for a near-equivalent type of player in Pearce. 

• Sign SP Jon Niese to a 1 year/$5M contract with incentives. 

With Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda all returning to the rotation, Dipoto reaches out to former Mets’ opening day starter, Jon Niese, in order to add depth to a rotation thinned by the trade of Walker to Miami. Niese, 30, struggled in 2016 going 8-7 with a 5.50 ERA with the Pirates and Mets before landing on the disabled list with a torn meniscus in his left knee.  Much of Niese’s struggles were attributed to a sudden spike in home runs allowed where he served up a career high 25 long balls.  Niese’s track record, though, shows much better as he averaged a 3.65 ERA and 174 innings pitched from 2012 to 2015.  Niese is projected to be healthy for the start of 2017, and should his 2016 simply be an outlier, the Mariners will have acquired a solid mid rotation arm that can eat up innings for well below market cost. It would also allow the hard throwing Miranda to be moved to the bullpen as the second left-handed reliever.

• Sign C Dioner Navarro to a 1 year/$4M contract. 

Having spent most of 2016 at Tacoma fine tuning his hitting mechanics, Mike Zunino will enter spring training as the starting catcher. After being recalled in July, Zunino showed improved plate discipline (.318 OBP) and power (.470 SLG) to go along with his usual strong defense.  However, Zunino ended the season batting just .207 with an astonishing 33.9% strikeout rate.  Those latter two stats remain as red flags heading into the new season, and should compel the Mariners to seek a backup catcher capable of stepping into the everyday role should Zunino struggle.  Navarro played in 101 games last season, but hasn’t done much with the bat since he put up an .856 OPS in 2013.  However, he’s still a solid defender who brings with him a track record of durability and veteran leadership in the clubhouse.

Update: The Mariners acquired veteran backup catcher Carlos Ruiz from the Dodgers in exchange for Vidal Nuno.  Ruiz played in 62 games last season producing a .264/.365/.34, and, like Navarro, is a solid defender and bring with him strong leadership qualities.   

The Lineup

Position Players 

1. Brett Gardner, LF
2. Steve Pearce, 1B
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Nelson Cruz, DH
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Marcel Ozuna, RF
7. Mike Zunino, C
8. Leonys Martin, CF
9. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Bench

1. Dioner Navarro, C
2. Dan Vogelbach, INF
3. Shawn O’Malley, UT
4. Ben Gamel/Guillermo Heredia, OF

Rotation

1. Felix Hernandez
2. James Paxton (L)
3. Hisashi Iwakuma
4. Jon Niese (L)
5. Nate Karns/ Ariel Miranda (L)

Bullpen

1. Brad Hand (L)
2. Vidal Nuno (L)
3. Dan Altavilla
4. Evan Scribner
5. Steve Cishek
6. Trevor Rosenthal
7. Edwin Diaz (CL)