For GM Jerry Dipoto, the 2017 season didn’t go exactly as planned. 

Fresh off a 2016 campaign that saw the Mariners finish 87-75 and eliminated from playoff contention on the second to last day of the regular season, Dipoto had visions of ending baseball’s longest playoff drought by bolstering the team’s starting pitching. To accomplish this, Dipoto boldly dealt away the talented, yet, inconsistent and long ball-prone Taijuan Walker; swiftly added Drew Smyly via a series of trades; swapped a pair of one-year contracts to acquire Yovani Gallardo; and added Christian Bergman, Chris Heston, and Chase De Jong to Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio as Triple A depth pieces. 

With expectations that ace James Paxton and former ace Felix Hernandez would be fully healthy, and Hisashi Iwakuma had at least one more season left in his arm that could produce something close to the 16 wins, 4.12 ERA, and 199 innings that he provided the year before, the Mariners felt pretty confident about their rotation heading into the new season. 

But that optimism was short lived, and came crashing down faster than pulling the wrong block in a game of Jenga.  

By the end of May, the rotation Dipoto assembled had been completely decimated by injuries.

Smyly’s season came to an end before it ever started as he was lost for the year during  Spring Training. Paxton was placed on the disabled list for four weeks just after his fifth start.  He would land there again in August for another five weeks.  

Hernandez promptly followed suit, being placed on the disabled list for two months after his fifth start.  And like Paxton, he would end up there again in July for six more weeks.  

Even the ever-reliable Iwakuma wasn’t immune to what was occurring to the starting staff.  After his sixth start, Iwakuma was placed on the disabled list and never returned.   

To really understand the dire nature of things, consider that Gallardo – acquired in hopes he could bounce back from his 6-8 record and a 5.82 ERA in 2016 – suddenly went from fifth starter to staff ace.  And as if all that wasn’t bad enough, Gallardo was replaced by rookie Andrew Moore in June due to ineffectiveness.

DEFCON level 1, anyone?

All said and told, the opening day rotation combined to start a total of just 68 games in 2017.  

Dipoto now heads into the offseason tasked with the same job as last offseason: upgrade the starting rotation.  Presumably, Iwakuma, Smyly, and Gallardo will not be back (although Iwakuma or Smyly could return on a minor league deal) leaving Dipoto the responsibility of finding three starting pitchers to join Paxton and Hernandez.  Dipoto got a head start in this endeavor by acquiring Mike Leake from the Cardinals at the end of August, who now heads into 2018 as the Mariners’ #3 starter.  Dipoto also made moves to acquire Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Albers, and Marco Gonzales, all of whom will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.

In addition to addressing the starting pitching, the Mariners will need to find a first baseman to replace departing free agents Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso.  Dipoto will also need to find a replacement for Jarrod Dyson who split time with Guillermo Heredia in center field. 

Dipoto has shown a preference – perhaps obsession – for filling needs via trade. However, with most of Dipoto’s draft picks still developing in the lower minors, and most of the “better” prospects left over from the Jack Zduriencik era having already been traded for players now at the major league level, Dipoto may have to bite the bullet and go the route of free agency to fill his team needs.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for 2018 that we believe can land the Mariners in the playoffs.  So, without further ado…

• Trade CL Edwin Diaz and OF Guillermo Heredia to the Atlanta Braves for SP Julio Teheran and OF Christain Pache.

Did we actually say the Mariners may have to go the route of free agency rather than trade to fill needs?  Scratch that.

Yes, dealing Diaz is a bold move, and one that would essentially create two needs at the cost of filling just one. But being able to acquire a #2 caliber pitcher at just $31M over the next three years is a bargain in today’s market.  Plus, there is no sense in retaining a young electric closer if you lack a rotation that can pitch well enough to help you win games.  Teheran is a #2/#3 type starter who over the past five seasons owns a 57-52 record, a 3.55 ERA, an average of 197.0 innings tossed, and a near 40% ground ball rate.   The two time All-Star struggled a bit in 2017, recording an 11-13 record with a 4.49 ERA, the highest of his career.  However, those numbers may be attributed to hitter-friendly SunTrust Stadium where Teheran went 3-10 with a 5.86 ERA.  On the road, Teheran profiled much closer to his career numbers by going 8-3 with a 3.14 ERA.  That kind of production would make the 27 year old Teheran the perfect fit right behind Paxton in the rotation.

The Mariners also acquire Atlanta’s #10 prospect in Pache.  Known for speed, defense, and athleticism, Pache is a younger version of Heredia.  Pache spent 2017 in Class A where he hit .281, produced a .335 on base percentage, and swiped 32 bases.  Pache is still a few seasons away from making the jump to the majors, but profiles as an everyday centerfielder.  However his current path is blocked by the presence of Atlanta’s top prospect (and baseball’s #10 overall rated prospect), center fielder Ronald Acuna, who slashed a .344/.393/.548 at Class AAA last season and is primed to break into the majors.  With Acuna projected to be Atlanta’s centerfielder for the foreseeable future, Pache would have to move to a corner outfield position where his lack of power (.343 slugging percentage in 2017) would diminish his overall value. 

For Atlanta, Diaz allows the Braves the option of moving Arodys Vizcaino back to his setup role after taking over the closer role from 34 year old Jim Johnson, who struggled with eight blown saves and a 5.56 ERA.  Heredia provides the Braves youth, speed, defense, and athleticism to an aging outfield that saw 32 year old Matt Kemp (115 games) and 33 year old Nick Markakis (160 games) handle most of the duties in left and right fields.  

• Sign 1B Carlos Santana to a 4 year/$56M contract.

The Mariners haven’t been able to find a long(ish) term solution at first base since Richie Sexson played the position from 2005 to 2008. In the nine seasons since the Sexson era, the Mariners have seen six different players start a season at first base, including last year’s starter, Danny Valencia, who slashed a .256/.314/.411 with 15 home runs.  The Mariners did pick up Yonder Alonso in the second half in an attempt to increase production at the position, and were rewarded with a .265/.353/.439 and six home runs in 42 games.  With both Valencia and Alonso free agents, the Mariners end the revolving door at first base by signing the switch hitting 31 year old Santana to a four year deal. Over the past five seasons, Santana has averaged a .250/.366/.447, 25 home runs, and gold glove type defense.  Last year alone, Santana slashed a .259/.363/.455 and 23 home runs. 

• Sign OF Jon Jay to a 2 year/$15M contract. 

With the trade of Heredia to the Braves, and Jarrod Dyson’s pending departure via free agent, the Mariners turn to Jay for outfield help.  Jay, 32, is no longer an every day player, and cannot cover the same amount of ground he once did in his younger days. However, Jay is still capable of providing average defense at all three outfield positions. And with Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel both capable of playing center, the Mariners have the option of utilizing a rotation at the position to alleviate the need for any one person to play there full time.  While Jay would be a step down from Heredia and Dyson in terms of defense and speed, he would be an offensive upgrade over both players.  Jay slashed a .296/.374/.375 in 141 games in 2017, and because he doesn’t carry significant hitting splits, Jay can be used against left and right handed pitching.

• Sign SP Jaime Garcia to a 2 year/$20M contract with $12M option.

Dipoto has developed an appetite for ground ball pitchers.  After the 2016 season, Dipoto flipped the script by announcing that Safeco Field is actually not a good home for fly ball pitchers.  Under this new assessment, Dipoto focused his attention on ground ball pitchers, picking up Leake and his career 51.1% ground ball rate, as well as Ramirez and his 44.8% ground ball rate.  With trips to the disabled list by Paxton and/or Hernandez a likely possibility in 2018, adding some more rotation should be on Dipoto’s to-do list.  The 31 year old Garcia brings with him a career 56.2% ground ball rate, and fits right in with Dipoto’s growing number of starters who can keep the ball on the ground.  While Garcia’s past has seen him deal with his fair share of injuries, he’s been a model of good health for the past two seasons, averaging 29 starts and 164 innings pitched. 

• Trade SP Oliver Jaskie and OF Chuck Taylor to Kansas City for RP Joakim Soria.

With Diaz gone to Atlanta, Dipoto must find someone to anchor the back of the bullpen.  Several in-house candidates do exist for Dipoto to choose from.  Veteran setup men David Phelps and Nick Vincent could slide into the closers role.  The hard throwing James Pazos, who tallied a 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings last year, is a viable option, as are fellow fire ballers Tony Zych, Dan Altavilla, and Shae Simmons.  But rather than weaken a strong setup tandem, or roll the dice that one of his young high-octane relievers can suddenly step in and handle the pressures that comes with the closer’s gig, Dipoto opts to trade for the veteran Soria to stabilize the back of the bullpen.  With one year and $9M remaining on his contract (plus a $10M mutual option for 2018) Soria provides the Mariners another proven veteran arm at the back end of the bullpen with plenty of closing experience.  After solidifying himself as one of baseball’s dominant closers during his first nine seasons, averaging 25 saves and a 2.57 ERA, Soria served as the Royals’ late inning setup man to closers Wade Davis (2016) and Kelvin Herrera (2017) the past two years where he averaged a 3.89 ERA and 9.7 strikeouts per 9 innings. 

• Sign OF Leonys Martin to a 1 year/$1M contract.

Yes, we know that Martin hit a horrendous .174/.221/.287 with the Mariners last year.  And, yes, we know he was released as a result.  And double yes, we realize Martin hit even worse after being picked up by the Cubs.  But we’re not eyeing Martin as a starting outfielder.  Rather, we’re talking fourth outfielder here.  One who can spell Gamel, Jay, or Haniger.  And even though Martin was pretty atrocious at the plate in 2017, the guy plays all three outfield positions, can flash the leather, and runs the bases well.  Those attributes alone make Martin a decent (and affordable) option as a late inning defensive replacement, a pinch runner, and occasional starter even if his bat should remain dormant for s second straight year.  But with 2018 being just his age 30 season, odds are Martin’s offense will return closer to his career .247/.300/.360 numbers, which isn’t great by any means, but more than fine given what the rest of his game brings.

The Ohtani Factor

We should let it be understood that our offseason plan excludes the possibility of winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.  Why?  Well, because Ohtani is a complete wild card.  Since money is not an issue (Ohtani is subject to the league minimum) every team is a possible destination thereby making the answer to where Ohtani will end up anyone’s guess.  With the final decision completely out of the control of the teams wanting him and, instead, resting solely with Ohtani himself, for reasons that are only known to him, we decided it best to just eliminate Ohtani altogether.  To include him in our offseason plan would be like formulating a Seahawks offseason plan for the 1988 season centered around the acquisition of Brian Bosworth even though the supplemental draft lottery hadn’t taken place yet.  A bit nonsensical, to say the least. 

The 25-Man

Infield:  1B Carlos Santana ($14M); 2B Robinson Cano ($24M); SS Jean Segura ($9.5M); 3B Kyle Seager ($19M); C Mike Zunino ($3.2M)

Outfield:  LF Ben Gamel ($.50M); CF Jon Jay ( $7.5M); RF Mitch Haniger ($.50M) 

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz ($14.25M)

Bench:  UT Andrew Romine ($1.9M); OF Leonys Martin ($1M); C Mike Marjama ($.50M)

Rotation:  James Paxton ($5.6M); Julio Teheran ($8M); Mike Leake ($11M); Felix Hernandez ($26.8M); Jaime Garcia ($10M)

Bullpen: Marco Gonzales ($.50M); James Pazos ($.50M); Marc Rzepczynski ($5.5M); Erasmo Ramirez ($4.7M); Tony Zych ($.50M); David Phelps ($5.8M); Nick Vincent ($2.7M); Joakim Soria ($9.0M)

The Wrap 

Our offseason plan involves six moves that come in at a total cost of $49.5M.  This brings the total payroll to $186.45M, which would be an increase of just over $31M from last year.  That’s a pretty lofty jump in payroll, one that would have made the Mariners the fifth highest payroll team entering 2017.  But with roughly $42M coming off the books in the next two seasons due to the looming free agencies of Nelson Cruz and Felix Hernandez, the increase in payroll is manageable as the Mariners will have the option to bring that number down beginning in 2019 without having to drastically alter their roster.  

The big move, of course, was to acquire Teheran in order to pair another young top flight arm with Paxton.  With there still being some volatility with the rotation, adding a top shelf pitcher was a priority.  The other big move was the signing of Santana to a four year deal, which surpasses any other free agent deal handed out by Dipoto during his tenure as Mariners GM by two years.  In acquiring the switch hitter, the Mariners add another hitter who fits in with the team’s emphasis on controlling the hitting zone and getting on base.  In addition, Santana brings some power, evidenced by his 57 home runs and .477 slugging percentage the past two seasons.  And with his ability to hit from both sides of the plate eliminates the need to use a platoon at first base, thereby freeing up a bench spot for someone with a bit more versatility. 

Despite the addition of Teheran, the potential of injury to Paxton and/or Hernandez has us add further depth to the rotation with Garcia.  A proven veteran starter, Garcia would also allow Dipoto to use Erasmo Ramirez and/or Marco Gonzales out of the bullpen, where their respective abilities to toss multiple innings will help ease the burden of the rotation and bullpen.  (More on that later)

The outfield will see Jon Jay take over as the primary starting center fielder, although both Gamel and Haniger can see time there as well.  Leonys Martin returns to take over the fourth outfielder duties.  And utility man Andrew Romine, picked up off waives from Detroit after the season, will be able to slot in at a corner outfield position as well.  If the Mariners go with a four man bench, fellow utility man Taylor Motter could make the team again and see time in the outfield.  However, we’re guessing Dipoto goes with a three man bench in order to utilize an eight man bullpen during the season.

Ok, so it’s not really a “guess” that the Mariners may go with and eight man bullpen.  Dipoto has already stated that next year’s starters may be limited to going through a batting lineup just three times in an attempt to prevent wear and tear.  It has also been  indicated that relievers will be looked upon to toss multiple innings.  With all signs pointing to a bullpen expected to work more innings than it has in the past, carrying an additional reliever seems like the logical move.  And the acquisition of Joakim Soria not only adds a proven closer to replace Diaz, but someone who has had success in a set-up role as well.

So there you have it.  Six moves, a bump of $31M in payroll, and a team that is even deeper and more versatile than the one Dipoto put on the field in 2017.  Is it good enough to see the playoffs?   We believe so.