With pitchers and catchers set to report to camp in roughly three weeks, the Mariners continue to keep an eye on the free agent market for the possibility of adding one more pitcher to their starting rotation.
GM Jerry Dipoto has gone on record to say he is “confident” with his current rotation. If that notion holds true, the Mariners will stroll into the 2018 season with James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez occupying the top four rotation positions, with the final spot being filled by Ariel Miranda, Andrew Moore, Marco Gonzales, or Max Povse.
While we have detailed how holding firm on the current state of the rotation could have merit, it is still our opinion that adding one more proven starting pitcher would be the prudent move to make.
Someone who could give the Mariners around 30 starts, close to 200 innings, and not go too far north of a 4.00 ERA would be the ideal candidate.
Certainly any one of the big four – Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – would be capable of meeting such wants. However, with those four pitchers having dealt with recent arm injuries and looking to sign four or five year deals for upwards of $100M or more, making that type of commitment to a 30-somethings pitcher with health concerns is a risky endeavor.
Jaime Garcia is someone whose asking price should be a bit more economical, and he comes close to meeting the criterion after having averaged 28 starts, 164 innings, and a 4.55 ERA over the past two seasons.
However, while a deal for Garcia should probably not exceed two years, Tyler Chatwood’s three-year deal with the Cubs still remains the market bench mark for starting pitching. As a result, the much more experienced Garcia is surely looking for a similar type contract, if not better. A three-year deal might be too much for a soon-to-be 32 year old pitcher who has already undergone the holy trinity of arm surgeries: Tommy John, rotator cuff, and thoracic outlet.
Outside of Garcia, there isn’t much left to choose from. Ostensibly, the Mariners would have to take a flyer on a bounce back candidate such as Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, or even Andrew Cashner. Yet, after enduring the not-so-good Yovanni Gallardo experiment, it would be difficult to see Dipoto dip back into that well again.
But what about R.A. Dickey?
Now, before you go all Jackie Moon on me, consider what the knuckle baller accomplished in 2017.
The 43-year-old Dickey started 31 games and tossed 190.0 innings for an average of 6.12 innings per start. In addition, Dickey produced a solid 4.26 ERA, struck out over twice as many batters than he walked, and kept the ball on the ground 46.9% of the time.
Not bad, right? Well, it gets better.
Digging into his game logs, Dickey managed to pitch at least six innings in 22 of his 31 starts, including seven or more innings in 11 of his starts.
Zoom out even more, and Dickey went at least five innings in 29 of his 31 starts, and allowed four earned runs or less in 26 of his 31 games.
Don’t look now, but that’s the type of return on investment one would expect from Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn.
And it would cost just a fraction of the price. Say, a one-year deal for $10M.
Such reliable production would be a huge stabilizer to a somewhat precarious Mariners rotation.
In addition, it would give Dipoto options, such as moving Ramirez to the bullpen, thereby adding another solid multi-inning reliever to Dipoto’s “wolfpack” relief corps. It would also take some of the pressure off a less experienced arm like Gonzales should he emerge from Spring Training as the fifth starter.
That all said, Dickey has hinted at retiring in order to spend more time with his family. Moreover, even if Dickey did decide to post-pone retirement for another season, would he even consider a team that is over 2,300 miles away from his home in Nashville?
Dickey has stated that any team he decides to play for in 2018 would have to present the “ideal situation” for him and his family. One would have to assume close proximity to Nashville would be a factor. If that were the case, it would be very hard to envision Dickey coming to Seattle.
Then again, Dickey is familiar with the Mariners organization after spending a season with them back in 2008. Perhaps Dickey misses the fresh ocean air and abundance of coffee houses, and would be interested in spending another year in the Pacific Northwest?
I mean, what could be better than riding off into the retirement sunset after having helped lead the Mariners to their first playoff appearance since 2001?
Sounds like it could be a pretty ideal situation for not only Dickey, but the Mariners as well.
