Monthly Archives: April 2018

The Mariners Have An Outfielder Problem. And It’s Not Ichiro.

Leave a reply

The Mariners find themselves with an outfielder problem.

And despite the passionate opinion of a vocal segment of fans, no, it’s not Ichiro.

After being called up from Tacoma at the end of April last year to fill in for the injured Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel introduced himself to opposing pitchers by blistering the baseball to the tune of .348/.405/.489 in his first 55 games. However, Gamel finished out the remainder of his 2017 season by slashing a sub par .219/.255/.354 over the final 77 contests.

Ostensibly, the Mariners hoped that their projected starting left fielder for 2018 would shake off that 77 game slump in spring training and start the new season closer to how he began it in 2017. However, that did not happen as Gamel missed most all of spring training (and the first two weeks of the regular season) due to a right oblique strain suffered at the beginning of March.

After five weeks on the disabled list, Gamel returned April 18 but the results, so far, have been more of how he ended last year.

In his nine games since returning to the starting lineup, Gamel is slashing a lowly .125/.192/.250 with a .198 wOBA, 22 wRC+, and a -0.2 WAR.

Of course, one must point out the fact this is just a sample size of 24 at-bats in 2018. But when added to that 77 game slash line of .219/.255/.354. (.271 wOBA and a 68 wRC+ during that second half of play) the sample size becomes much more worrisome.

Making matters worse, Gamel’s continuing struggles seem to be affecting how the Mariners are managing their 25-man roster.

With Gamel’s injury, the Mariners brought Ichiro back on a near league-minimum one year deal to temporarily serve as a fill-in. As anyone who has spent any amount of time on social media can tell you, the signing of Ichiro caused much skepticism among certain fans.

That skepticism quickly turned to anger last week when the Mariners decided to demote Gamel’s platoon partner, Guillermo Heredia, along with his .968 OPS, to Tacoma in favor of keeping Ichiro with team.

The Mariners rationalized the move by explaining how the abundance of right-handed starters coming up over the next 10 games would limit Heredia’s playing time.

In baseball reasoning, the move made some sense.

However, while the initial plan was for Ichiro to platoon with Heredia in left field until Gamel returned, at which point the Mariners would then provide Ichiro his walking papers, Gamel’s continuing struggles – at least in part – seem to be causing the Mariners some reluctance to cut ties with the future Hall of Famer.

Ichiro is slashing just a .250/.289/.250 in 38 plate appearances in 2018, but over his last 20 at-bats Ichiro is hitting .300 with a .364 OBP, which is akin to what he produced in the second half of last season when he slashed a .299/.384/.379 with a 108 wRC+.

Although the Mariners surely still see the 25-year-old Gamel as the long-term plan in left field, complicating matters is the fact that at some point Jerry Dipoto is going to have to decide whether continuing to pencil the struggling Gamel into the everyday lineup is not just in Gamel’s best interests, but the Mariners’ best interests as well.

And if Dipoto does choose to, say, send Gamel down to Tacoma to work on his swing much like he did with Mike Zunino last season, the Mariners will need a left-handed hitting outfielder to pair with Heredia.

Hence, Ichiro still being on the roster as insurance.

The wild card factor in all of this comes in the form of the all-star and four-time MVP candidate the Mariners have percolating down in the Rainiers outfield.

Before suffering a series of injuries last season that sidelined him for roughly three months, Jayson Werth was slashing a .262/.367/.446 (.814 OPS) as the everyday left fielder for the Washington Nationals.

Despite being 38 years of age, the Mariners are hoping there is still some of that production left in Werth’s bat shown last season.

With Gamel laboring, Ichiro seemingly on borrowed time, and Heredia not yet showing his is capable of playing every day, it would not be a surprise to see the right-handed hitting Werth eventually up with the Mariners as their everyday starter in left field.

One would surmise that Heredia would then serve as the team’s fourth outfelder, with Ichrio being released and Gamel demoted to Tacoma.

But, then again, if Werth is playing everyday, the Mariners may elect to have both Gamel and Heredia getting everyday at-bats in Tacoma rather than having either one sitting on the bench with the big league club.

And if that ended up being the case, one shouldn’t be surprised to still find Ichiro lingering on the roster serving as Werth’s back-up.

Mariners Benefitting from a “Good Enough” Rotation, and a Resilient Bullpen

Leave a reply

After taking two of three games from the Kansas City Royals, the Seattle Mariners find themselves with a 6-4 record and off to their best start through the first 10 games of a season since 2014 where they also began the year 6-4. 

The Mariners’ solid start to the 2018 season has them already four games better than this point last year, which saw the team struggle out of the gate with a 2-8 record.

So, what has been the difference between this year and last?

One could point to the offense, where the Mariners are averaging 4.4 runs scored per game, an increase from the 3.8 runs the team averaged last year over their first 10 contests.

The Mariners have also shown to be one of the better defensive units in the league, where their team UZR of 0.3 ranks 5th best in the American League, and their +6 DRS ranks 3rd best.  

There is also the fact that, unlike last season, the Mariners did not have the daunting challenge of facing the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros in seven of their first ten games.

While all of the above are factors, the biggest reason for the Mariners early season success has been their pitching.

Specifically, the ability of the rotation to hand the ball off to the bullpen with a lead, and the bullpen’s ability to, in turn, protect the lead and preserve the win.

Such an ability has been the plan GM Jerry Dipoto repeatedly talked about since the beginning of the offseason: to have a rotation good enough to get through a lineup two or three times, and then let the Mariners’ power bullpen take things from there.

And in the early going, the plan is working.

Mariners starters have pitched five or more innings seven times this season. In all seven games, the starter has been pulled with the game tied or with the Mariners in the lead. Only once has the bullpen given up the lead.

In other words, the Mariners are 6-1 when their starting pitcher goes at least five innings and leaves with the game tied or with the Mariners leading.

Compare that to the start of last season where the starting rotation was able to pitch five or more innings in all 10 games to start the year. In seven of those games, the bullpen was called upon either with the game tied or with the Mariners ahead. However, unlike what has occurred this season, the bullpen coughed up the lead in five of those seven games.

In other words, last season the Mariners went 2-5 when their starting pitcher went at least five innings and left the game tied or with the Mariners leading.

Of course, that is not to say the Mariners bullpen has been lights out this year. Their ERA (4.04) ranks eighth in the league, while their FIP (3.87) and WAR (0.3) both place 10th in the league.

Clearly, the bullpen is giving up runs here and there. The difference is that while they do give up a few runs, the Mariners bullpen has shown the resiliency to not give up the go ahead run(s) when the game is late and close.

The Mariners bullpen has been the beneficiary of a “bend but don’t break” strategy that has seen their relievers progressively diminish hitters in the 7-9 innings.

To illustrate, the Mariners are allowing a .317 batting average in the 6th inning. That average falls to .279 in the 7th inning, and to .237 in the 8th inning.  

In the 9th inning, with the electric Edwin Diaz closing things out, opponents are hitting just a miniscule 0.83.

Overall, in innings 7-9, Mariners pitchers have tossed 27 innings, are allowing just a .219 batting average against, have issued just 5 walks, and are producing a 6.40 SO/W ratio.

In high leverage situations, the Mariners are holding opposing batters to a .203 batting average and putting up a 5.00 SO/W ratio.

In late and close situations? A .194 batting average against and a 6.33 SO/W ratio.

With those type of numbers, the Mariners have essentially shorted the game to just six innings in the early going.

Despite the cries and complaints by critics of not adding “impact” to the rotation, or being “cheapskates” by not spending to acquire another middle to back end starter, Dipoto stayed true to his vision of a healthy rotation being good enough, and a talented bullpen able to take the ball and close things out.

Whether or not this early season success is sustainable over the next 152 games is unknown. But so far, the plan is showing to be effective for the Mariners.