Re-imagine.

That is the word of the day.

No, not because the Mariners would like to re-imagine a 2018 season that saw the team sprint out to a 59-38 first half record giving fans visions of their first playoff appearance since 2001, only to then stumble to a 31-34 second half record that resulted in a 17^th straight year of missing the post season.

Rather, re-imagine, as in GM Jerry Dipoto’s stated offseason plan heading into the 2019 season.

At the General Managers Meeting in Carlsbad, California, Dipoto talked about his offseason intentions to re-imagine the state of the Mariners.

“We’re open-minded to different ways we can get better, but what we’re hoping to achieve is to re-imagine our roster to look at it in terms of what is our quickest path to a championship club.”

Dipoto continued.

“We know what the Astros, Red Sox, A’s, Yankees and Indians look like. We don’t want to be a perpetual competitor for the second Wild Card. We want to build a championship roster…[w]hether through free agency or trade, we want to gather as much talent as we can.”

In other words, the Mariners are at a crossroads.

For the most part, Dipoto has maximized the dreadful minor league system he inherited by flipping the best of the worst prospects for a young core of MLB producers such as Ben Gamel, James Pazos, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales. And with James Paxton finally establishing himself as a true ace, Edwin Diaz transforming into an elite closer, and Robinson Cano still a very productive hitter, the Mariners have the talent to compete for a Wild Card. But Dipoto has his eyes set on being a World Series contender, and he is astute enough to know that his roster is a few pieces short of moving up to that level.

And therein lies the challenge.  With a reticence towards trading away top prospects due to the organization’s goal of rebuilding the minor league system, and the unlikelihood of being able to move any of the team’s veterans due to their hefty contracts, how does one make the necessary moves to elevate to the class of World Series contender?

The answer is to either raise payroll to allow for the acquisition of premiere free agents, or to deal off one or two of your young productive core players in exchange for a handful of highly rated MLB-ready prospects who you hope will reach their projected star potential.

Based on Dipoto’s track record and recent comments, it appears he is planning to go the route of the latter.

Last season we contended that the Mariners starting rotation merely had to stay healthy in order to provide the type of production needed for a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  And that notion held true.

In a reversal from 2017, Mariners starting pitchers avoided injury and, as a result, produced 77 quality starts, raising their near league worst number from the year before to the 8th best mark last season. With the rotation healthy and able to provide quality starts throughout the season, the starting staff was worth 11.7 fWAR, ranking them 5th in the league.  In addition, the bullpen, led by Edwin Diaz’s MLB-best 57 saves, tallied a 5.1 fWAR, also ranking them 5th in the league.

The offense, however, was a different story.

Despite receiving solid run production during the first three months of the season (4.4 runs/game through June), injuries to Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon, an 80 game PED suspension to Cano, and year-long struggles by Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino eventually became a weight too heavy to bear.  July slumps by Haniger, Segura, and Cruz would then bring the offense to its knees,  and the Mariners would go on to score just 3.3 runs/game over the  final three months of the season.

Most concerning, however, was the realization that once through the top half of the order (Haniger, Segura, Cruz and Cano) the Mariners received minimal production from the rest of the lineup.  In other words, the offense lacked length and, as a result, once an opposing pitcher worked past the first few hitters of the lineup, the rest posed little threat.

While the starting rotation and bullpen are two areas that can always benefit from another addition or two, Dipoto’s main objective heading into the offseason must be to create a more balanced batting order that will receive production throughout the entire lineup, not just from a few players.  With limited resources at his disposal, Dipoto may need to be creative in how he re-imagines his roster into one that can challenge the elite teams like Houston, Boston and New York.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2019 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade SP James Paxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers for SP Alex Wood, OF Alex Verdugo, and SP Dustin May

The Skinny: James Paxton and Edwin Diaz are Dipoto’s two most valuable trade assets. And with Paxton being a free agent in two years, the decision is to maximize his trade value by dealing him to a team looking to win it all in 2019.  Here, the key returns for the Mariners are center fielder Alex Verdugo and starting pitcher Dustin May, the #32 and #69 rated MLB prospects coming into 2018.  Verdugo, 22, is MLB-ready and possesses all the attributes Dipoto is looking for in a young player: athleticism, pure hitting ability, zone control, and plus defense. Blocked in Los Angeles due to a crowded outfield, Verdugo would immediately be penciled in as the Mariners opening day center fielder.  May, 21, is a lanky 6’6” 21-year-old righty who contains four quality pitches including a plus fastball that touches upper 90’s. A projected frontline starter, May would require another year of development in the minors before joining the Mariners rotation. To help bridge that one-year gap while also replacing Paxton’s productivity, the Mariners acquire 27-year-old Alex Wood who will enter free agency after the 2019 season. A fixture atop the Dodgers rotation the past several years, Wood made 27 starts in 2018 and produced a 3.65 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.72 xFIP, a 3.36 K/BB ratio, and a 49.2% ground ball rate.  Despite having Wood in the rotation for just one season, the Mariners would have the option of offering Wood a qualifying offer at season’s end where they would be in position to possibly receive a compensatory first-round draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming his contract is for at least $50M).

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to San Diego Padres for LF Wil Myers

The Skinny: The Mariners would love to get out from under Kyle Seager’s contract. However, without taking on most of the money still owed to him, trading Seager is a near impossibility.  In addition, the return they would receive would most likely be uninspiring.  So instead, the Mariners and Padres execute a one-for-one trade involving two historically productive players, signed to similarly bad contracts, who are both coming off down seasons.  Deals of this nature are somewhat unusual, but this one benefits both teams involved on several fronts.  With a crowded outfield and  Eric Hosmer – last year’s big free agent acquisition – entrenched at first base, the Padres no longer have to continue the Wil Myers experiment at third base as they now add a gold glover at the hot corner who is still in his prime and just a few years removed from a season where he received MVP consideration. Additionally, Seager’s remaining contract of three years/$56M is one year and $8M less than Myers’ outstanding commitment. For the Mariners, the 27-year-old Myers would be an upgrade over Gamel in left field, and although the Mariners would be taking on a contract that is slightly longer and more expensive than the one being giving up, the roster would get younger and Myers’ $3M owed in 2019 would free up $16M for Dipoto to spend elsewhere.

Trade RP Chasen Bradford & OF Guillermo Heredia to the Philadelphia Phillies for 3B Maikel Franco.

The Skinny: With Seager dealt to the Padres, the Mariners turn to Philadelphia to fill their third base vacancy. Once considered the future at third base after slashing a .280/.343/.497 his rookie season while also showing a strong arm and good range, Maikel Franco has underwhelmed since. Over the past three seasons, Franco has averaged a .250/.299/.431 and shown a propensity to chase pitches outside the strike zone. And his defense has declined from being slightly above average in 2016 (+2.5 UZR) to below average in 2018 (-5.0 UZR). With rumors circulating that the Phillies are looking to move on from their former top prospect, Franco’s young age (26), raw abilities, and control (free agent in 2022) should make him a target for the Mariners.

Sign Lonnie Chisenhall to a two year/$10M contract.

The Skinny: Can one (re)imagine what Lonnie Chisenhall could do if he just stayed healthy? To get a sense of what that could look like, one would have to go back to 2016 when Chisenhall slashed a solid .286/.328/.439 with 38 extra base hits in 418 plate appearances. Shoulder and nagging calf injuries have limited his playing time since then, but when healthy enough to step into the batter’s box (111 games, 365 at-bats) Chisenhall showed he can still wield a productive bat by putting up a rather gaudy .297/.368/.503.  With Nelson Cruz headed towards a free agent payday that will undoubtedly be too rich for the Mariners’ liking, and Dipoto hinting he would prefer to move away from a DH-only type of player, the more versatile Chisenhall can step in as the primary designated hitter where reduced field time will (hopefully) keep him off the disabled list, in addition to being able to play third base or a corner outfield position should the occasional need arise. 

Sign SP Charlie Morton to a three year, $48M contract.

The Skinny: At age 34, Charlie Morton continues to defy father time. Last year Morton produced one of the best seasons of his career by posting a record of 15-3 (30 starts) with a 3.13 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.42 xFIP and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. In addition, the right-hander continued to show impressive velocity (mid-90’s fastball) and a good ability to keep the ball on the ground (47%). While two years would be a preferred contract length for someone about to turn 35, offering three years is not unreasonable as Rich Hill, at age 36, signed a three year/$48M deal with the Dodgers just prior to the 2017 season. And with Morton showing no signs of slowing down, the Mariners should feel confident he will remain productive throughout the life of the contract.

Sign INF/OF Josh Harrison to a one year, $4M contract with a second year $4M player option and $2M team buyout.

The Skinny: Last season, veteran Andrew Romine served as the Mariners primary utility player where he saw time at every position other than catcher and pitcher. In that role, Romine played in 75 games, slashed a .210/.260/.244, struck out at a near 30% clip, and produced a woeful 44 wRC+.  Looking for more offense, the Mariners ink the versatile Josh Harrison who is capable of playing second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and right field. A career .277/.317/.408 hitter, Harrison played in 97 games last season and slashed a .250/.293/.363 with a 78 wRC+. While those numbers are a slight dip from his career numbers, Harrison is just one-year removed from producing a .272/.339/.432, 104 wRC+, and a 2.6 fWAR playing 128 games played at second base, third base, and left field.  Even if Harrison repeats his numbers from last season, such production will be a fairly significant upgrade over Romine.

The 25-Man  

Infield: 1B Robinson Cano ($24M); 2B Dee Gordon ($13.3M); SS Jean Segura ($14.85M); 3B Maikel Franco ($5.1M); C: Mike Zunino ($4.2M)

Outfield: LF Wil Myers ($5.5M); CF Alex Verdugo ($500K); RF Mitch Haniger ($600K)

Designated Hitter: Lonnie Chisenhall ($5M)

Bench: UT Josh Harrison ($4M); OF Ben Gamel ($600K); C David Freitas ($500K)

Rotation: Charlie Morton ($16M); Alex Wood ($9M); Mike Leake ($11M); Marco Gonzales ($900K); Wade LeBlanc ($2.3M)/Felix Hernandez ($27.86M)

Bullpen: Roenis Elias ($1M); James Pazos ($500K); Matt Festa ($500K); Shawn Armstrong ($500K); Juan Nicasio ($9.25M); Alex Colome ($7.3M); Edwin Diaz ($500K); LeBlanc/Hernandez

The Wrap

Our offseason plan involves six moves that total $45.1M.  Adding in players already under contract and projected arbitration figures, this would bring the opening day 25-man payroll to roughly $166M, which would be an increase of about $8M from last year.

The plan is a two-prong approach that keeps in line with how Dipoto has gone about restructuring the Mariners. On one hand, Dipoto continues to add younger controlled players like Verdugo, May and Myers who project as productive foundational pieces moving forward. On the other hand, proven veterans are also brought in on reasonable short-term deals, such as Wood, Morton, and Harrison, who will provide upgraded production to help improve upon last seasons 89 wins. 

In addition, a few of the transactions are made with the intent of not just upgrading one particular position, but triggering a domino effect that upgrades other positions as well.

For example, while Verdugo’s offensive skills project highly at the MLB level, his defense should be an immediate upgrade over both Gordon and Guillermo Heredia in center field. With Verdugo in center, Gordon can remain at second base where he is a better defender than Cano, and Cano can then move to first base where he would be a significant upgrade over Healy.

Likewise, Myers’ offense (25 doubles, 11 homeruns in 2018) and defense (3.4 UZR, +4 DRS) is not only an upgrade in left field, but would then allow Gamel to become the team’s fourth outfielder where he should prove superior to Heredia, who slashed a meager .236/.318/.342 and provided a -10 DRS in the outfield.

On the pitching front, a Charlie Morton-Alex Wood tandem at the top of the rotation represents a much stronger one-two punch over last season’s Felix Hernandez-James Paxton duo, as the former combined for 5.7 fWAR while the latter totaled 4.1 fWAR. Moreover, the additions of Morton and Wood, followed by Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales, would then provide the Mariners the ability to use either Hernandez or Wade LeBlanc in a swing role, splitting their respective time between long relief and starting.

Of course, the offseason is not without taking  few chances on players looking to reach their upside on a consistent basis.  Throughout his career, Franco has flashed moments of his projected star ceiling, none more than last year when he carried the Phillies’ offense for the entire month of July by slashing a .330/.378/.593 with seven home runs.  And Chisenhall has shown he is more than capable of being an .800 OPS hitter when healthy.

One may have noticed no moves were made in regard to the Mariners’ bullpen.  This was by design as relievers are typically the most overpaid, yet most volatile, players on a roster and rarely live up to the contracts they are given.  Moreover, the organization’s minor league system is deep with hard throwing relievers nearing the majors, as well as the fact that the Mariners will return a bevy of solid bullpen arms who pitched for them last season.  

One decision Dipoto will have to make regarding the bullpen is whether to carry seven or eight relievers.  Such a decision will have a direct effect on what the team does with Healy and Dan Vogelbach, the latter of which is out of options.  If Dipoto chooses to carry seven relievers, then a choice will need to be made as to who to keep as a bench piece.  With Healy still having options, our preference would be to start him at Tacoma and give Vogelbach another opportunity to prove himself at the major league level.  However, the Mariners are sure to keep eight relievers meaning Vogelbach – at some point – will have to be traded, with Healy beginning the year as a Rainier.