The 2020 Mariners baseball campaign was intended to be one of major league development for the team’s young core.  The goal was to let the youth take the reins, absorb some bumps and bruises in the first half of the year, and then show improvement and competitive play in the second half.  A big part of that plan involved the anticipated arrivals of top prospects Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic who were expected to be called up from the minors at some point during the latter half of the season.

But with the COVID19 pandemic canceling the minor league season and reducing the regular MLB season to just 60 games, the Mariners’ young core were left with just one-third of a normal MLB season to prime themselves for the Mariners projected playoff window starting in 2021. In addition, the organization’s top prospects had to settle for a year of competing against each other through intrasquad games.   

That’s not to say the MLB season was a complete loss for a rebuilding team like the Mariners.

GM Jerry Dipoto’s crew finished the season with a 27-33 record which, by most people’s accounts, surpassed expectations. More encouraging was the fact that the Mariners went 16-14 over their final 30 games.     

Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.10 ERA/3.32 FIP) and Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA/3.17 FIP) anchored a starting rotation that ranked a respectable 15th in baseball in ERA (4.41) and FIP (4.29), and graded out as the 10th most valuable rotation overall with a 4.9 fWAR. 

The offense was not quite as effective, finishing 21st in baseball with a 5.4 fWAR.  But the strong play of Kyle Lewis (.262/.364/.437, AL Rookie of the Year Award winner), JP Crawford (255/.336/.338, Gold Glove Award winner), Dylan Moore (.255/.358/.496 playing seven different positions), and mid-season acquisition Ty France (.302/.362/.453) provided far more optimism than what the overall numbers indicated.

The bullpen, however, was a far different story. With a 6-13 record, 5.92 ERA, 5.81 FIP and -1.5 fWAR, the Mariners relief corps was one of the worst in baseball.

Dipoto has gone on record stating that the primary focus will be on upgrading his bullpen. Specifically, Dipoto will be seeking three to four relievers who will help address last season’s late game struggles.

In addition, Dipoto further stated the Mariners would continue to use a six-man rotation, signaling that a starting pitcher could be an offseason target.

Having reduced payroll significantly over the past two seasons, Dipoto and the Mariners will have plenty of money to spend. And with many teams looking to cut costs after being hit with revenue losses due to the shortened season, the Mariners could find themselves at a financial advantage this offseason when it comes to free agent spending.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2021 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Joe Kelly and IN/OF Zach McKinstry.

The Skinny: With Justin Turner a free agent, the Dodgers enter the offseason needing to find a third baseman.  Resigning Turner is still an option but, at age 36, his defense is not quite what it used to be, and injuries have become more of a concern.  Acquiring the younger Kyle Seager to play alongside his brother Corey may be the more attractive option.  Seager is due $33M over the next two seasons, but that may not be an issue given his above average defense and a .789 OPS averaged over the past two seasons.  However, with the understanding that money can always be a concern, Joe Kelly’s contract offsets the amount owed to Seager by roughly $13M, which would reduce Seager’s AAV to just $10M per year.

The Dodgers signed Kelly prior to the 2019 season to a 3 year/$21M deal, including a $12M option and $4M buyout for 2022, to serve as the team’s primary set-up man for closer Kenley Jensen. Kelly’s tenure with the Dodgers has not lived up to expectations as he posted a subpar 4.56 ERA in 2019 and spent five weeks on the injured list this past season with shoulder inflammation, as well as being suspended eight games (reduced to five) for throwing at Alex Bregman in July. Still, Kelly’s 24.4 K% and 10.4 K/9 during his time with the Dodgers would be a welcomed upgrade for a Mariners bullpen that ranked 28th in K% (20.2) and 26th in K/9 (8.29) in 2020.

Coming into 2020, Zach McKinstry was the Dodgers No. 18 rated prospect according to MLB Pipeline. McKinstry broke out in 2019 at the AA and AAA levels where he combined to slash .300/.366/.516 with 19 homeruns. That showing helped prompt a call up this past September where he slashed .286/.286/.428 in four games. McKinstry is often likened to Chris Taylor – someone who can play multiple positions with solid defense and has above average bat-to-ball skills. McKinstry’s versatility could see him challenge for time at second or third base, and/or provide depth at shortstop and in the outfield.  

Sign SP Marcus Stroman to a 4 year/ $64M deal.

The Skinny: Adding a frontline starting pitcher as one of the final pieces to the “step-back” would occur, ideally, after the 2021 season where the Mariners would have a better idea about the futures of Justin Dunn, Nick Marjevicius, Ljay Newsome, and Logan Gilbert.  However, the 2021 class of free agent starting pitchers does not leave much to be desired. There’s Noah Syndergaard, and then a handful of past-their-prime starters in Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke, to name a few. Of course, there still may be one or even two decent years left in one of those aforementioned names.  But if one is looking to add a front line pitcher in the next year or so who is still in their prime, this offseason may be the time to do that.

Stroman sat out the 2020 season due to COVID19 concerns but has always been one of the better starting pitchers throughout his career.  Over the past three seasons, Stroman has averaged a 3.65 ERA and 3.83 FIP.  In 2019 Stroman produced a 3.22 ERA/3.72 FIP across 32 starts and 184.1 innings for Blue Jays and Mets.  Stroman would slide right in between left-handers Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield as the Mariners No. 2 starter.

Sign RP Trevor May to a 3 year/$16M deal.

The Skinny: Among all the relievers available on the free agent market, Trevor May is probably the one guy who checks the most boxes for Dipoto and the Mariners.  A power pitcher who touches upper 90’s with good command, May’s strikeout rates (top 2%), whiff rates (top 1%) spin rates (top 25%) and velocity (top 11%) are among the best in baseball and, therefore, should draw a great deal interest from Dipoto and his analytics-driven team.   

While May does have a tendency to give up the long ball due to an exit velocity and barrel% not near as shiny as his missed bats rates, he has been highly effective since making the switch from starting pitcher to full-time reliever in 2016.  Since that time, May has produced a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP and 12.3 K/9.  This past season, May produced a 3.86 ERA/3.62 FIP and 14.7 K/9. 

Sign OF Robbie Grossman to a 1 year/$4M deal

The Skinny: By the end of June, the Mariners expect to be running out a starting outfield of Kelenic, Lewis, and Mitch Haniger. However, the question needing to be answered by the start of the season is who will be holding down left field until Kelenic is ready?

A switch hitter, Grossman has consistently been one of the more underrated players in the game. Grossman is not going to challenge for any homerun or batting titles, but he will do what he has done throughout his career: get on base.  Since 2016, Grossman has averaged a .257/.359/.395.  In 2020 alone, he slashed a .241/.344/.482.  Grossman can play all three outfield positions, but is best suited in the corners where he provides average to above-average defense.  

The 26-Man

Infield: 1B Evan White; 2B Dylan Moore; SS JP Crawford; 3B Ty France; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Robbie Grossman; CF Kyle Lewis; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Jake Fraley

Bench: C Luis Torrens; IN/OF Shed Long; IN/OF Tim Lopes; IN/OF Zach McKinstry

Rotation: Marco Gonzales; Marcus Stroman; Yusei Kikuchi; Justus Sheffield; Justin Dunn; Logan Gilbert

Bullpen: Kendall Graveman; Joe Kelly; Trevor May; Yohan Ramirez; Joey Gerber; Nick Margevicius; Anthony Misiewicz.   

The Wrap

In the expanded playoff format of 2020, the Mariners finished just two games behind the Astros for the AL West’s second best record and a berth into the playoffs. At the same time, the Mariners bullpen tallied nine blown saves.

See what we are getting at?     

Dipoto has already taken the first step at renovating the bullpen by resigning Kendall Graveman to a $1.5M incentive laden contract for next season. Graveman moved from the rotation to the bullpen last year after discovering a benign bone tumor in his neck.  After making that switch, Graveman made nine relief appearances and produced a 3.60 ERA/3.09 FIP and a 55.2% ground ball rate. A return to that role for an entire season should be a nice boost for the Mariners.

Joining Graveman in the bullpen will be right-handers Joe Kelly and Trevor May.  Kelly and May bring upper 90’s heat, miss bats, and do a good job of limiting hard contact.  Most importantly, both Kelly and May have experience (and success) bridging to the ninth inning and either (as well as Graveman) could be utilized as the team’s closer. The trio of Graveman, Kelly and May should provide manager Scott Servais with sufficient late inning options, something he did not have in 2020.

Stroman has generally been considered a top of the rotation starter throughout his career. However, unlike his counterparts tagged with the same designation, he is not a strikeout pitcher and, instead, is a ground ball specialist who relies on his defense.  That’s not to say Stroman can’t bring some heat. Stroman sits 92-93 with his fastball and can occasionally crank it up to 95. But his success comes from his sinker/slider combo that limits hard contact and results in a lot of ground ball outs. 

With so much focus nowadays placed on pitchers who tally big strikeout numbers – combined with the fact Stroman has been tagged with a qualifying offer – teams looking for rotation upgrades may be drawn more to the likes of Gausman, Tanaka, or even James Paxton. That bodes well for the Mariners who have the defense to support Stroman’s ground ball ways, and whose right arm would slot in nicely between lefties Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield.

Outside of the bullpen, the one area that will see the most change in 2021 is the outfield.  The Mariners used Jose Marmolejos and Philip Ervin in the outfield corners on most nights in 2020. However, neither player impressed as Marmolejos produced a .206/.261/.411 and Ervin a .205/.340/.282.  With both players out of options, Haniger slated to return to right field, and Kelenic expected to move into the starting outfield sometime in June, it is difficult to see Marmolejos and Ervin being with the team next year.

The Mariners have a handful of in-house options like Jake Fraley, Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, and Braden Bishop who can be plugged into the outfield as needed. McKinstry could also figure into the outfield mix. But with uncertainties surrounding Haniger’s ability to stay healthy, and Kelenic’s timeframe to adjust to MLB competition, adding someone who is proven and can play every day should be on Dipoto’s to-do list.

Grossman would serve as a reliable placeholder until Kelenic is ready to be called up and take a spot in the Mariners outfield. If and when that occurs, Grossman could then move into the designated hitter role, and occasionally spell Haniger and Kelenic as needed.  More importantly, Grossman would serve as an fallback plan should something happen to either Haniger or Kelenic, and the Mariners find themselves needing an everyday outfielder.