After the Mariners fell one game short of the playoffs in 2023, Cal Raleigh had some choice words for ownership: Go get us players for 2024.

Cal’s request was a bit more of a “where’s the commitment” shade thrown at the front office, but bringing in better players was the general theme.

“We’ve got to commit to winning, we have to commit to going and getting those players you see other teams going out and getting —  big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up…we’ve done a great job of growing some players here and within the farm system, but sometimes you’ve got to go out and you have to buy.”

The Mariners seemingly took Raleigh’s words to heart. No, they didn’t go spend $700M on Shohei Ohtani. But President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, and General Manager, Justin Hollander, did go out and acquire a handful of solid players with proven track records.

Jorge Polanco, coming off a 117 wRC+, was acquired from the Twins to take over second base. Mitch Garver was signed away from the division rival Rangers where his 140 wRC+ in ’23 looked to be the perfect fit at designated hitter. Luke Raley, fresh of a career high 129 wRC+, was acquired from the Rays to provide left-handed thump from the outfield, first base, or designated hitter. And in a swap of contracts, the Mariners parted with Robbie Ray and brought back Mitch Haniger to reclaim his spot in right field. Haniger suffered through his second straight injury-plagued season in ’23, but the Mariners hoped an injury-free Haniger would provide offense closer to his last healthy season in ’21 where he posted a 120 wRC+ across 157 games.

The additions didn’t stop with the offense. Dipoto added much needed late inning depth to the bullpen by adding 98 mph heat in the form of Gregory Santos to join fellow leverage relievers Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. The 25-year-old was coming off a season where he posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 66 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched.

Despite a slow start by the offense, the Mariners jumped out to a 10-game lead over the second place Astros in the AL West by the middle of June thanks to the M’s dominant starting pitching. However, persisting offensive struggles up and down the lineup would eventually catch up to the team.  

Polanco, Garver and Haniger never got on track, and Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and JP Crawford all struggled for the majority of the season. Even Raleigh struggled for the first three months of the year with an underwhelming .202/.289/.390 and 97 wRC+ through June.

And making matters even worse, Rodriguez, France, and Crawford all ended up missing significant time due to injuries. 

By the middle of July, that cushy 10-game lead in mid-June had been surrendered to the Astros despite a starting rotation ranking 1st in ERA (3.36) and 2nd in FIP (3.63) in the American League.

Several in-season moves were made to try and awaken a dormant offense. Among those moves:

• May 31: Bench coach and offensive coordinator Brant Brown was fired.
• July 30 trade deadline: Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner – two of the top hitters available – were acquired. Arozarena took over LF and Turner replaced Ty France at 1B, who was then DFA’d and traded to the Reds.
• August 22: Manager Scott Servais and Director of Hitting Jarret DeHart were given pink slips. Former Mariners players Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over as manager and hitting coach.

After the firings of Servais and DeHart, the offense finally showed life where the team put up a 125 wRC+ over the final two months of the season, a performance good enough to rank 3rd in the MLB over that time. However, it was too little too late as the Mariners fell a game shy of making the playoffs. 

At his end of the season presser, Dipoto and Hollander spoke about their realization of the type of adjustments that need to be made in order to have a better suited roster for T-Mobile Park. It wasn’t quite clear what these adjustments were, but the inference seemed to be an offense less reliant on right-side fly ball pull hitters and more focus on contact hitters who can spray the ball from gap to gap.   

“We learned where we may be doing things the wrong way and we have to make adjustments,” Dipoto said. “Not just an approach on the field, but in how we put the roster together and maybe in some of the things we’re looking for and in how those things fit in our ballpark – maybe that’s been the greatest lesson for us this year. Hopefully, we’re able to adapt the lessons we’ve learned to building the ’25 team.”

Moments later, however, Dipoto raised a few eyebrows by suggesting any “lessons we’ve learned” may simply come from the players already on the roster.

“We’ve been a good run-scoring offense on the road,” Dipoto said. “I think we can be a good run-scoring offense both at home and on the road with a more balanced approach. … The team has shown that they are capable of doing this – that we don’t need to to go out and revamp our roster. There’s a reason we’ve had a good team for a handful of years now, and it’s because our players are good.”

As most fans know, having a “good team” hasn’t been good enough for the Mariners over the past two seasons.  The challenge facing Dipoto and Hollander will be getting a good team back to being a playoff team, and that type of task is rarely solved by relying on the status quo.  Changes in player personnel will be needed, especially for a team that will enter the offseason with question marks at third base, second base, and first base. 

Of course, any meaningful changes will be dictated by ownership’s willingness to increase payroll.  While it has been reported that spending will go up from last year, it is also believed it won’t go up significantly. Most speculation has landed on the front office having about $15M to $20M to spend.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2025 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Logan Evans and LHP Brandyn Garcia to the Cardinals for 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Brendan Donovan, and $12M

The skinny:  After falling short of the playoffs in 2024, the Cardinals have decided to undergo a “reset” with a focus on developing their next core group of young players to lead them to playoff contention starting in 2027.  Naturally, veteran Nolan Arenado should be available if he is willing to waive his no trade clause, and if any team is willing to take on all  – or a good portion of – the remaining $74M owed over the next three years. While no longer the offensive player he once was, Arenado is still a solid hitter who possesses the bat-to-ball skills the Mariners desire. He can also flash the leather at the hot corner with the best of them. Twenty-seven-year-old Brendan Donavan also possesses excellent bat skills and is a strong defender.  In return, the Mariners part with a pair of top organizational starting pitchers in No. 10 prospect Logan Evans and No. 16 prospect Brandyn Garcia. Mitch Haniger and his remaining one year and $15.5M is also sent to St. Louis to offset Arenado’s contract.

Trade C/DH Mitch Garver, LF Dominic Canzone, and RHP Hunter Cranton to the Padres for 2B Luis Arraez

The skinny:  The Mariners signed Garver last offseason to be their primary designated hitter but after struggling early on to get on track, the Mariners relegated Garver to backup catcher and went with Luke Raley and Justin Turner at designated hitter for the majority of the second half. The Padres acquired Luis Arraez mid-season to fill their need at second base.  But Arraez’s poor defense led him to being moved to first base, and then eventually to designated hitter. With the Padres in the market for a catcher and both Arraez and Garver set to make similar salaries in 2025, the stars seemed aligned for the two teams to make a swap to fill each team’s respective needs. 

Sign 1B/DH Justin Turner to a 1 year, $8M contract

The skinny:  The Mariners traded for Turner at the deadline to fill their first base and designated hitter needs and the 39-year-old responded by producing a slash line of .264/.363/.403, a 126 wRC+, and continued to display above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills.  At age 40, the question is whether Turner has another productive year left in the tank?  The Mariners seemingly believe there’s at least one more productive year as they’ve stated an interest in bringing Turner back for the ’25 season.

Sign LHP Caleb Ferguson to a 1 year, 1.5M contract

The skinny: Caleb Ferguson is coming off a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season where he posted a 4.28 FIP and allowed 1.35 HR/9 with the Yankees, but then a 2.88 FIP and 0.43 HJR/9 after getting traded to the Astros. Ferguson did see his average velo on his four-seamer drop a few ticks to 93.6 mph, but he still ranked well above average in limiting hard contact and missing bats, something the Mariners haven’t had from a southpaw since maybe Arthur Rhodes toed the rubber nearly two decades ago. 

Sign C Yasmani Grandel to 1 year, $1M contract

The skinny: The Mariners will need to restock their catching depth behind starter Cal Raleigh and the recently departed Seby Zavala.  Grandel no longer wields the bat like he once did, but he is a solid defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff well and is lauded for his leadership and ability to make in game adjustments.  It’s possible that Grandel could be had on a minor league deal, but given the dearth of viable catching options behind Raleigh, it may require a MLB deal to ensure the Mariners secure Grandel’s services.

The Wrap

The Mariners, again, find themselves heading into the offseason with the task of putting together an offensive lineup that can match their talented pitching staff.  Dipoto and Hollander believed they had accomplished that after focusing much of last year on acquiring hitter’s better skilled at not striking out. That never materialized, though, as the Mariners led the MLB last season with a 26.8% K-rate.

Dipoto and Hollander now claim to know the secret recipe for hitting at T-Mobile Park. Again, it’s uncertain what those exact adjustment are since neither went into specifics. But staying away from strikeouts will likely remain a priority. And with there no longer being a need to hit the ball over the shift, adding more contact hitters would be a good bet.

The first move in our offseason plan is nabbing Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. This is reminiscent of the Mariners acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker where the Mariners not only filled two needs, but also lowered the asking price on Winker by agreeing to take on the contract of Suarez. Assuming Arenado is willing to be traded, the $74M still owed to him over the next three years would have to be figured out for a Mariners ownership unwilling to take on that amount of money.  The Rockies are on the hook for $10M of that sum, and another $12M will be deferred to 2038. That would leave the Mariners on the hook for $21M in 2025, $16M in 2026, $15M in 2027 and then $12M in deferred money. 

Salary-wise, $52M over three years is probably still too rich for ownership. So to offset Arenado’s contract, the Mariners include Haniger who no longer appears to have a role on the team after the acquisitions of Arozarena and Robles. That would reduce the overall money owed to $36.5M over three years which is about the price ownership was willing to pay for Eugenio Suarez. The Cardinals would also chip in $12M to cover the deferred money owed in 2038.

Arenado may no longer be the yearly all-star and MVP caliber player he once was, but the eight-time all-star is still a fairly productive player.  While his power dipped a fair amount in ’24 (.394 slugging, 16 HRs) Arenado still produced a .272 average, a .325 OBP, struck out just 14.5% of the time, and sported an 84.4% contact rate.  Arenado can also still provide elite level defense where he was worth +6 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average at the hot corner.  That all added up to Arenado being a 3.1 fWAR player last year, and if the Mariners can obtain close to that type of value in each of the next three seasons for $12M per, then they should be all over it.    

While Arenado fills the need at third base, the primary target in the trade is Donovan who slashed a .278/.342/.417 with 14 HRs, 34 doubles, and struck out just 13.5% of the time in ’24. Donovan’s contact rate of 86.6% was nearly 10% better than league average.  In addition, Donovan is a plus defender who can fill the Mariners second base needs until top prospect Cole Young is ready to be called up. When that happens, the versatile Donovan can move to another position either in the infield or outfield.  And with Donovan’s three years of control, the Mariners can take their time with Cole and move him up only when they are certain he is ready.

With the Cardinals undergoing what they call a two-year “reset,” Haniger would be able to provide a year of veteran leadership for what will be a very young lineup in ’25, with the possibility of being a movable piece at the trade deadline. The far more enticing acquisitions for the Cardinals, though, is Mariners’ No. 10 and top pitching prospect, Logan Evans, and No. 16 prospect, pitcher Brandyn Garcia. Both are viewed as future rotation arms about a year away, which perfectly fits the Cardinals competitive time-table.

Evans features a two-seamer that sits mid 90’s and is complimented by a slider that misses bats and an effective cutter against righties. The Mariners toyed with the idea of moving Evans to the bullpen last year so he could come up late in the season and add relief help. But the organization decided to keep him as a starter and the righty responded by going 6-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 22 starts and striking out 102 batters in 105.2 innings for Class AA Arkansas.

Garcia sports three plus pitches including a fastball that can amp up to 98 mph. His other offerings include a sharp cutter and a big sweeping slider. The 6′ 4″ lefty made a combined 27 starts for Class High A Everett and Class AA Arkansas and recorded a 2.01 ERA while striking out 132 batters in 116.1 innings. Some question whether the rotation is where Garcia will be most effective as a major leaguer, but so far Garcia has shown nothing to support a move to the bullpen.

Last season’s “big” free agent signing, Mitch Garver, also appears to be in a bit of positional limbo. The Mariners are banking on Garver bouncing back after producing a .172/.286/.341 and a 30.9% strikeout rate. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Garver regress closer to his career norm, but with Luke Raley now pushed into a first base/designated hitter role against right-handed pitching, and Dipoto eyeing Justin Turner to return to the first base/designated hitter role he played last year, it begs the question as to how Garver will be used in the coming season?  If the Mariners are looking to sign Turner – or perhaps Carlos Santana who is also reportedly on Dipoto’s wish list – then Garver would end up being, once again, a very pricey backup catcher. 

About a day’s drive south of Seattle, the Padres are also undergoing a similar “where to play him” situation with their second baseman turned first baseman turned designated hitter.  The Padres made an in-season trade for Luiz Arraez and plugged the (then) two-time batting champion in at second base.  However, Arraez’s defensive struggles forced the Padres to move him to first base and, when those struggles persisted, they consigned him to be their designated hitter.  

Arraez finished the year winning his third straight batting title with a .314 average to go along with a .346 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. All of which makes one question why the Padres would entertain trading Arraez?  Reportedly, the Padres would like to give Manny Machado more time at designated hitter and wouldn’t be able to do so with Arraez entrenched at that spot.  Additionally, the Padres are not fully convinced that Arraez – a singles and doubles hitter – is who they want occupying a power position.  

Garver would help fill the Padres catching needs where Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz are both free agents, and returning catcher Luis Campusano (.227/.281/.361) looks more like a part-time player rather than someone capable of everyday duty. When not catching, Garver could also provide time at designated hitter and take a few innings at first base, if needed.  

Of course, any interest in Garver from the Padres would hinge on the belief that 2024 was just an offensive outlier. A .216 BABIP would suggest a certain amount of bad luck was at play. And there have been comments from around the league – most recently by Teoscar Hernandez – about an unidentifiable uncomfortableness when hitting at T-Mobile Park. A change of scenery for Garver could result in a return to more career-type production, much like was the case for Hernandez.

With the Padres also looking for a left fielder, the Mariners part with Dominic Canzone who has shown flashes of offensive & defensive upside but just hasn’t had the opportunity to establish himself yet. With the M’s outfield already set for next year, the odds of Canzone finding more opportunity with the team is slim to none. ZiPS projections has Canzone producing a slightly better than average .242/.299/.415 and a 106 OPS+ across 402 plate appearances in 2025, which could suit the Padres just fine given Canzone is still pre-arbitration. Those saving would allow the Padres to allocate more money to filling their other needs such as shortstop and first base.

The Mariners also include their No. 30 ranked prospect in RHP Hunter Cranton. The 24-year-old made waves during his first taste of professional ball last year by showcasing a 98 mph fastball that hit triple digits. That type of heat resulted in Cranton being ranked by Baseball America as possessing the best arm in the Mariners organization. In a limited action after being drafted in the 3rd round, Cranton pitched to a 3.24 ERA and racked up 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings for Class A Modesto. Cranton is projected as future late inning reliever who shouldn’t require much time in the minors.

For the Mariners, Arraez represents what the team is sorely lacking. The 27-year-old had a 94.1% contact rate and sprayed the ball evenly to all parts of the field (32.7% LF, 37.5% CF, 29.8% RF).  Arraez’s high contact rate does come with downside as he rarely strikes out (4.3% K rate in 2024) and walks are far and few between (3.6% BB rate).  Additionally, there won’t be much in the longball department either. But Arraez would certainly provide the type of “adjustment” that Dipoto and Hollander are seemingly seeking and – kicking traditionalism out the window – the three-time batting champion could slot in nicely as the Mariners primary designated hitter.

Justin Turner was a player I had hoped the M’s would sign last offseason (as well as Arozarena) so I was quite pleased when Turner (and Arozarena) was acquired at the trade deadline. Not only did he produce, but Turner provided a veteran presence that had been sorely missing since Carlos Santana was let go after 2022. Turner showed to be the type of player Cal Raleigh asked the front office to go get – a “been there, done that” veteran. With both Turner and Dipoto expressing mutual interest in a reunion, it seems quite likely that a deal will get done.

Last season saw Matt Brash and Gregory Santos – two of the team’s top leverage arms – go down with injuries, forcing the Mariners to lean heavily on Andres Munoz in late inning situations. It seemed like Dan Wilson relied on Munoz to save every game down the stretch, creating anxiety among fans that Munoz’s arm would fall off at any moment. With both Brash and Santos expected to be recovered from injuries, the Mariners bullpen shouldn’t require much tinkering prior to opening day. At the same time, however, with Brash and Santos both coming back from injuries, adding one more proven relief arm wouldn’t be the worst idea.

For most of his career, Caleb Ferguson has been one of the better – and underrated – relief arms in baseball. For the first six seasons of his career, Ferguson produced a 3.43 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 10.7 K/9 serving primarily as the Dodgers’ 7^th inning bridge to setup men like Pedro Baez and Blake Treinen. The Yankees acquired Ferguson last year to bolster their bullpen but Ferguson struggled to get on track, posting a 5.13 ERA and 4.29 FIP over his first 42 appearances. Ferguson was then acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline where he regressed closer to his career norms with a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 20 appearances.  

With the trade of Garver to the Padres, and Seby Zavala signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox, Cal Raleigh would enter spring training as the only catcher with any substantial MLB experience. The Mariners do have highly rated prospect Harry Ford percolating in the minors, and while Ford might see his first MLB action sometime in ’25, he is probably a year away from any sort of meaningful playing time.

To address this, the Mariners tap Yasmani Grandel to serve as Raleigh’s backup for 2025. The 35-year-old Grandel split time at catcher for the Pirates last year where he slashed an underwhelming .228/.304/.400. But Grandel still showed a solid approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate, and an above average 81.3% contact rate. Additionally, Grandel received praise for his game calling, defense, and the way he handled the pitching staff.  For a Mariners team needing just a start or two per week from their backup catcher, Grandel would adequately fill such a role.

All said and told, the above transactions would put the Mariners just over the $160M payroll mark for 2025. According to Roster Resource, the Mariners finished the 2024 season with a $144M payroll so that should fit within budget.