Tag Archives: Corey Hart

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.

What’s Next for the Seattle Mariners?

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It’s been five weeks since the Mariners went on an acquisition binge by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and trading for Logan Morrison all within a span of five days.  But since that bender, all has gone relatively silent from GM Jack Zduriencik, raising question as to whether the Mariners have exhausted their available offseason funds to make further significant moves, or are simply waiting for their next opportunity to strike?  The question looms large, as the Mariners – despite adding Cano, Hart and Morrison – find themselves still needing to address several weak points in their lineup.

The Mariners entered the offseason primarily in want of an everyday center fielder, a designated hitter, a backup catcher, and a #3 pitcher for the rotation.  Ideally, they also sought an everyday power hitting corner outfielder, and help in the bullpen.  Depending on how Hart and Morrison are used, the designated hitter position could be filled.  The Mariners reportedly signed veteran catcher John Buck to a one year deal to be the backup to Mike Zunino.  But despite these moves, the Mariners still find themselves with a fairly large to-do list.

A few big name free agents still remain on the market who could help the Mariners in 2014.   Designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, right fielder Nelson Cruz, starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka, and relief pitchers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are all available, would fill needs, but each would come at a fairly significant price.   If the Mariners truly are strapped for cash, and with a mostly depleted free agent market limiting their options, the Mariners will presumably have to rely on trades if they want to further upgrade their lineup.

Let’s take a look at where the Mariners stand in regard to their remaining areas of concern.

Centerfield:  Rumor is that Zduriencik and company are looking to Michael Saunders to be their everyday center fielder.  Back in 2011, Saunders appeared to be on his way to establishing himself as an above average defensive center fielder, putting up a 3.2 UZR in 44 games.  But since then, his defense has regressed as a starter.  In 2012, Saunders’ UZR as a center fielder fell to -3.7.   Last year it fell even further, to -9.6.   Not exactly what you want in a center fielder.  Perhaps the Mariners believe Saunders will rebound.  That certainly could happen. But it’s difficult to imagine any ball club, aware of such a downward defensive trend, being comfortable heading into the season with that type of uncertainty at one of their most important defensive positions, with no real backup plan.

The Mariners did resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year deal.   But injury has now reduced the former starting center fielder to being a fourth outfielder only capable of playing three – maybe four – times a week, if lucky.   During his on-the-job training last season, Dustin Ackley showed the ability to play centerfield on a regular basis, but in his limited time there (48 games) he proved to be less than good, producing a -6.3 UZR.  Ackley should improve as he acquires more innings and becomes more comfortable roaming the outfield.  The question, however, is by how much, and how quickly?  And can the Mariners afford to gamble on Ackley developing into an adequate center fielder should that need arise?

If all else fails, Abraham Almonte is another option for the Mariners in centerfield.  In his first call-up to the bigs last season after being acquired via trade with the Yankees, Almonte showed speed and promise in limited action, producing a -1.2 UZR in 25 games.  But, like Ackley, it is unknown whether Almonte can handle the grind of playing on a regular basis.

Designated Hitter: Corey Hart would appear to be the new designated hitter, the position best suited for him.  But Zduriencik has gone on record stating the intention is for Hart to see time in right field.  Hart running around the outfield would be a precarious sight for anyone’s eyes.   Besides his less than desired defensive prowess (a career -15.0 UZR in RF), Hart sat out the entire 2013 season recovering from injuries to both knees.  Although now deemed healthy, it’s absolutely impossible to know how Hart will hold up to playing on a regular basis, which is why the Mariners signed Hart to an incentive laden contract.

If Hart does find himself in right field, the Mariners could use Logan Morrison at designated hitter.  Morrison is best suited as a designated hitter or first baseman, but, like Hart, Zduriencik has said that he, too, will see time in the outfield.  Could we see Morrison and Hart roaming the corner outfield positions at the same time?  One would hope not, but if the Mariners can have Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse starting in the outfield together, then anything is possible.

Jesus Montero, if he isn’t traded, will surely be given a chance to win a roster spot this coming season.  How big of a chance remains to be seen.  After being demoted to the minors last year, and serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, questions linger whether the catcher-now-turned-designated hitter/first baseman can find that stroke that made him one of the top all-around hitting prospects in baseball?  He’ll have to if Montero wants to find his way back onto the Mariners 25-man roster.  However, Montero’s only realistic hope of making the team is as the starting designated hitter.  With Hart, Morrison, and Smoak sure to be on the opening day roster, the Mariners do not have room for a reserve player whose utility is limited to designated hitter and first base.

Starting Pitching:  At the top of their rotation, the Mariners boast two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  Last season, Hernandez and Iwakuma combined to go 26-16 with a 2.84 ERA.  At the bottom of the rotation, the Mariners have two of baseball’s best mlb-ready pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  During their late season call-up last year, Walker and Paxton combined to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA.  The problem for the Mariners is they have nothing in between.  As it stands now, the starting rotation consists of Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top, Walker and Paxton rounding out the bottom, and under achieving holdovers Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi and Brandon Maurer fighting it out for the #3 spot. As much talent as Walker and Paxton bring to the table, Zduriencik does not want to head into the season with three-fifths of his rotation relying heavily on inexperienced and untested arms.   And with Walker and Paxton most likely being limited to somewhere between 150-170 innings each in order to protect their arms in their first full season at the big league level, the Mariners lack the pitching depth when the time comes to shut them down for the year.

The acquisition of a solid #3 pitcher would allow Walker and Paxton to comfortably fill out the last two rotation spots, with Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan and/or Noesi able to step in if either struggle or reach their innings limit.  As it stands, the Mariners have several options that they could go in to acquire that mid rotation arm.  As mentioned, the Mariners could dip into free agency and sign Garza, Santana or Jimenez (Santana and Jimenez have draft pick compensation attached to them) or enter the Tanaka sweepstakes.  Of course, bringing aboard any of those players would take a financial commitment.  David Price, whom the Mariners have been linked to quite frequently this offseason, could come via trade with the Rays, giving the Mariners one of the best rotations in baseball.  Price is due to only make $10MM this season, is under team control until 2016, but would cost the Mariners a couple of top prospects, including one of Walker or Paxton.  Others like Bronson Arroyo and Chris Capuano are available, although at this stage in their respective careers, they both are closer to being #5 starters than they are solid #3 starters.

Bullpen:  Last season, Mariners relievers posted a 4.59 ERA, good enough to finish 29th in all of baseball.  They also blew 23 save opportunities, seventh worst in all of baseball.  Those two statistics alone stand as reason enough that upgrading the bullpen for 2014 is desperately needed.  Despite solid performances from Charlie Furbush (3.74 ERA), Oliver Perez (3.73 ERA) Yoervis Medina (2.91 ERA) and Danny Farquhar (2.23 ERA, 16 saves in the second half), the rest of the relievers –  Beavan (5.28 ERA), Noesi (7.83 ERA), Tom Wilhelmsen (4.12 ERA), Lucas Luetge (4.86 ERA), Bobby LaFromboise (5.91 ERA), and Carter Capps (5.49 ERA) – all proved to be ineffective.  Adding to the need to bring in help, Capps was traded this offseason to the Rays in exchange for Morrison, Perez elected to explore free agency, and hard throwing set-up man, Stephen Pryor, is still recovering from torn lat and triceps injuries that saw him miss most of last season.  Yet, despite the abuse that was taken by Mariners relievers in 2013, Zduriencik has yet to make any improvements.  The addition of Balfour or Rodney – both capable of serving as closers – would strengthen a questionable bullpen, but there are no indications that Zduriencik is interested in investing the type of money needed to secure the services of either player. If the Mariners elect to stand pat, Zduriencik will most likely be banking on Farquhar continuing to perform in the closers role as he did in the second half of last season, that Pryor will be healthy and able to hold down the set-up role, Wilhelmsen will return to form, and one of Luetge or LaFromboise will emerge as a competent second left-handed specialist to go with Furbush.

Corner Outfielder:  The Mariners have let it be known that they would like to add a power hitting outfielder into the mix for 2014.  But if the season were to begin today, the probable starting lineup would consist of Ackley in left field, Saunders in center field and either Hart or Morrison in right field.  Assuming Hart would begin the season at designated hitter, an Ackley/Saunders/Morrison outfield doesn’t quite provide that sought after power.  The Mariners have been linked to free agent Nelson Cruz for most of the offseason, with rumors being that Cruz already turned down a five-year, $75MM contract from the Mariners. Signing Cruz would be the easiest solution towards fulfilling the power corner outfield void, but Cruz’s suspect defense and the fact he is coming off a PED suspension, makes his acquisition risky and possibly unwise.  The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is another possibility the Mariners could explore.  Like Cruz, Ethier is a middle-of-the-order bat.  But unlike Cruz, Ethier would provide solid defense in right field.  But Ethier carries with him a $15MM annual salary, in addition to the fact the Mariners would probably have to give up a top prospect in return.  Both of those factors could make a trade of this kind unlikely for Zduriencik.  All things considered, the most plausible acquisition (not necessarily the best, mind you) would be the Mariners continuing to wait out the Morales market, and then signing him to a “qualifying offer-reduced” two or three-year deal at around $10MM per year to be the designated hitter, and then use the power hitting Hart as the regular right fielder.  Of course, as stated earlier, Hart running around the outfield on two bad knees is just a season-ending injury waiting to happen.

Mariners Add Hart & Morrison, Position Themselves To Go After Carlos Gomez

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With Day 3 of the MLB Winter Meetings concluded, the Mariners added two more bats to their revamped lineup.  First, Jack Zduriencik signed Corey Hart to a guaranteed one-year, 6M contract with additional incentives that could push the deal to 13M.  Hart will take over the DH duties as well and spend time in the outfield and possibly at 1B.  Within an hour after signing Hart, reliever Carter Capps was sent packing to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Logan Morrison.  Morrison will replace Justin Smoak as the starting 1B.

Hart missed all of 2013 after having surgery on both knees, but he possesses big time power when healthy.  In 2012, he slashed a .270/.334/.507 to go along with 30 homeruns. From 2010 to 2012, Hart averaged a slash line of .279/.343/.514 and 29 homeruns.  That kind of production should slot nicely right behind newly acquired Robinson Cano, giving the Mariners two potent bats for the middle of their order.

Morrison was a highly rated prospect coming up through the Marlins organization, living up to expectations in his 2010 big league call-up by slashing a .283/.390/.447 in 62 games.  He followed that up the next season with a slightly lesser .247/.330/.468 despite hitting 23 homeruns.  The last two seasons, Morrison has been less than pedestrian, averaging a .236/.321/.387.  However, against RHP last season, Morrison put up a solid .261/.354/.423.   The Mariners could be looking to implement a platoon at 1B next season, with Morrison starting against RHP, and Hart against LHP.

While Hart and Morrison fill needs for the Mariners, their acquisitions may have also created an opportunity to land a needed centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Both Hart and Morrison were top targets for the Milwaukee Brewers who are looking to fill their need at 1B.  With both Hart and Morrison no longer available, the market for first basemen has thinned dramatically.  The Brewers’ current remaining options are trading for the Mets’ Ike Davis, or signing free agent James Loney.  However, the Mets are asking for top pitching prospect Tyler Thornburg in return for Davis, whom the Brewers are not willing to give up.  And Loney is seeking a three-year deal, also something the Brewers are not interested in providing.  To complicate matters even more, the Brewers are competing with both the Pirates and the Rays who are also looking to fill needs at 1B.

Enter the Mariners and newly available Justin Smoak.

By acquiring Hart and Morrsion, the Mariners not only added needed offense, but simultaneously positioned themselves for a possible trade with the Brewers.  But not just any trade.  Rather, a trade for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.  As we noted in our offseason lookout, Gomez is one of the games top up-and-coming players who would provide the Mariners with elite defense as well as production at the top of the batting order.  The Brewers have made no indication that they are willing to move Gomez, but the Mariners – via their acquisitions of Cano, Hart and Morrison – have created an abundance of tradeable pieces that could persuade the Brewers to think otherwise.

In return for Gomez, the Mariners could not only offer Smoak to fill the Brewers’ need at 1B, but also include any combination of Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, Jesus Montero, in addition to top pitching prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  We previously suggested a package of Walker, Smoak, Saunders, and top outfield prospect Stefen Romero.  But with the signing of Cano, the Mariners are now free to add Ackley or Franklin into the mix without creating a need in their own lineup.  Could a package centered around Walker, Smoak, and Ackley entice the Brewers to part with Gomez?  Maybe swap out Ackley for Franklin?  Perhaps offer Paxton instead of Walker, but include a few more prospects in the deal?  In any scenario, the Brewers would be receiving young cost-controlled players with upside, capable of stepping right into the starting lineup, and who would fill immediate needs.

Clearly, at this point, a possible Gomez trade is nothing more than conjecture.  But with the Brewers looking diligently to fill their need at 1B, the Mariners suddenly find themselves with a golden opportunity to make an offer to acquire that coveted center fielder and leadoff hitter, one that could find the Brewers hard pressed to pass up.