Tag Archives: Dillon Gee

Seattle Mariners 2015 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Question: How do the Mariners pick up six more wins?

That was the inquiry posed by ownership in the afterglow of missing the playoffs by one game.  Not the standard boiler plate spin from years past such as “we made positive strides forward” and “our young players received valuable experience.”

No hinting towards payroll cuts.

No, this time, it was about wins, and how to get more.  Specifically, it was about finding two more bats for the middle of the order and raising payroll to accomplish that goal.

How GM Jack Zduriencik goes about addressing the need for offense is another big question, with the answer predicated upon where payroll will be set.

For the purposes of our projected 25-man roster for 2015, we’re raising payroll to $125M.   Why $125M, you ask?  Simple. The Mariners can afford it.  Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano are the team’s only two long-term contracts.  And the revenues from their own Regional Sports Network and MLB’s profit sharing is undoubtedly enough to allow for upwards to a $150M payroll. But even without the RSN and profit sharing, the increase in attendance alone last season – roughly 300,000 – amounts to around $30M in additional revenue from gate and concession receipts.  The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game sporting a $107M payroll for the second half.  If the Mariners are truly intent about raising payroll in order to pick up more wins, it’s logical that payroll should increase from the $107M they ended the season with.  Of course, ownership’s intent could be to increase from the $91M they broke camp with.  Which one they will use as their starting point, no one really knows.  But ownership expressed a desire to pick up six more wins, and in terms of win values – where teams are paying roughly $6M per win – that would mean a bump of $36M, or a $127M or $143M payroll. For the sake of erroring on the safe side, we are using the season starting payroll as our launch point, and come in $2M under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, C John Hicks, and RP Tom Wilhelmsen to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and $30M.

The Skinny:  The Mariners are in the market for a “big” bat. Someone who can provide pop from the right side, play a corner outfield position, and hit cleanup behind Robinson Cano. The Dodgers are looking to clear room in their uber-crowded outfield, and have needs in their rotation, bullpen and at catcher. Can you say match made in heaven?

Trade OF Michael Saunders and SS Chris Taylor to the Mets for SP Dillon Gee and OF Matt den Dekker

The Skinny:  Saunders has mysteriously fallen out of favor with Zduriencik, Brad Miller and  Taylor are redundant, and the Mariners need a mid-rotation arm and fourth outfielder.  The Met’s desire ground ball and strikeout type pitchers, both of which Gee is not, seek a young shortstop and corner outfielder with pop, and have an excess of young center fielders. The stars seem aligned for a Mariners-Mets deal.

Sign DH/1B Billy Butler to a 3/$24M contract

The Skinny: Every year Zduriencik looks into trading for Butler. And every year the Royals hang on to him. Not this year. The Royals declined Butler’s $12.5M option, casting him out into the free agency pool ripe for Zduriencik’s picking.

Sign SP/RP Chris Capuano to a 1/$2M contract

The Skinny: Last season the Mariners learned the hard way that you shouldn’t  rely on and expect untested rookies and reclamation projects to pitch a full season. Lesson learned.   Capuano serves as the perfect safety net: a reliable arm that can pitch out of the bullpen and transition seemlessly into the rotation if needed.

Sign 3B Kyle Seager to a 5/$60 extension with an option for a sixth year.

The Skinny: Seager has emerged as the game’s top all-around third basemen not named Beltre. And he’s just entering his prime.  Locking him up for the foreseeable future is a no-brainer.

The Lineup

Position Players
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Matt Kemp, RF
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Billy Butler, DH
7. Logan Morrison, 1B
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller, SS

Bench
1. Matt den Dekker, OF
2. Willie Bloomquist, INF/OF
3. Jesus Sucre, C
4. Carlos Rivera, INF

Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Hisashi Iwakuma
3. Dillon Gee
4. James Paxton
5. Roenis Elias

Bullpen
1. Charlie Furbush (L)
2. Chris Capuano (L)
3. Brandon Maurer
4. Danny Farquhar
5. Yoervis Medina
6. Dominic Leone
7. Fernando Rodney

Analysis

The Mariners need offense, and they need a big time run producer to hit behind Robinson Cano.  Kemp fills that need in every way: a cleanup hitter with right handed power, capable of slotting into a corner outfield position, and a proven track record against mlb pitching. Yes, trading away one of the top pitching prospects in baseball may seem steep. Let alone the team’s most effective reliever from last season as well as the Mariners’ top mlb-ready catching prospect. But the key to this deal is getting the Dodgers to kick in enough money to get Kemp’s annual average salary down to $15M. And the Dodgers aren’t going to do that for nothing. While Walker, Hicks and Wilhelmsen seem like a lot to give up, all three come from organizational positions of strength, thereby minimizing their ill-effect on depth. Yes, there is some risk with Kemp due to his injury history and remaining length of contract. But Kemp’s relatively young age (just turned 30 in September) and last season’s return to form (.287/.346/.506 and 25 home runs) should relieve any anxiety as to whether or not Kemp is worth acquiring. That said, the Dodgers have made no firm indication they are still in the market of trading one of their most productive hitters. But with Andrew Friedman now in control of things, you can bet the Dodgers will be looking to trade payroll for prospects. And if the Dodgers are intent on retaining Hanley Ramirez, freeing up $75M over the next five years may help in accomplishing that.

The next step is to find a replacement for Walker, ideally someone who can slot behind Hernandez and Iwakuma and give the team 200 innings.   With Citi Field being reconfigured into a more hitter friendly park, reports are that Gee and his fly ball pitching ways no longer fit in with the Mets’ rotation plans.  We profiled Gee last year as a target for the Mariners after he went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199 innings, and struck out 142 batters while walking only 47.   Gee struggled in 2014 after suffering a lat injury, but is again healthy and should benefit greatly from the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco.  The Mets continue to seek a young shortstop with offensive upside whom they can plug into their everyday lineup, as well as a right fielder with some power.  Saunders’ .800+ OPS potential should be enticing and could be a perfect fit in right field for the Mets.  And Taylor, while not projected to be a star, would certainly meet their wish for a young shortstop with plus potential.  The Mets may prefer Brad Miller, who some feel projects higher both offensively and defensively.  If that was the case, swapping out Taylor for Miller shouldn’t be a deal breaker.  With Ketel Marte perhaps just a year away, both Miller and Taylor are expendable.   As for den Dekker, the emergence of Juan Lagares has blocked his path to centerfield, relegating den Dekker, instead, to backup duties. A solid defender and line drive hitter, den Dekker lacks the power to fulfill the Mets’ everyday corner outfielder need.  And with Kirk Nieuwenhuis on the roster, the Mets already have a left handed hitting outfielder to backup left, center and right fields. With his ability to also play all three outfield positions, den Dekkar would provide the Mariners with an ideal left handed compliment in center and right fields, as well as someone who could step into the everyday lineup should someone go down with injury.

Last season, the Mariners produced just a .190/.266/.301 from their designated hitter position.  Unquestionably, Zduriencik will be looking for an upgrade here.  And possibly a big one.  Victor Martinez seems to be the perfect candidate.  But Martinez is reportedly looking for a deal starting in the three year, $15M per season range, and is attached to a compensation pick.  The Mariners would probably have to guarantee at least four years and upwards to $20M per year to land Martinez, not to mention surrending this years first round draft pick to the Tigers.   And that is a pretty risky commitment to give for someone who will be 36 at the start of the season.  Another option is Cuban sensation Yasmany Tomas. Only 24, Tomas has big power from the right side, and can also play a corner outfield position.  But Tomas is looking to break the seven year, $72.5M deal signed last season by fellow county man Rusney Castillo, and that price is probably too rich for the Mariners considering Tomas has never faced mlb pitching.

As for Butler, there’s no denying he had a down year in 2014. Butler produced just a .271/.323/.379, managed only nine home runs, and struggled against right handed pitching with a .255/.301/.352. But Butler’s BABIP against right handed pitching of .292 was well below his career mark of .322, suggesting he’s a candidate to return to something closer to his career norm. And despite his overall drop in offensive production, Butler still mashed lefties to the tune of .321/.387/.460. Butler is young (28), healthy, and provides power from the right side. He fills the void at DH, can take some innings at 1B, isn’t attached to a compensation pick, and should come at a much more reasonable price than either Martinez or Tomas.  For the Mariners, that checks all the boxes on the wish list.

If there was one area that hurt the Mariners playoff push more than anything season last year, it was a lack of pitching depth.  During the last part of the season, the Mariners’ starting rotation simply fell apart.  Hernandez fell into a three game slump, going 0-2, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and a .948 OPS against.  Iwakuma went winless during a four game stretch, allowing 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings.   And Roenis Elias simply ran out of gas and had to be shut down. Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer tried to salvage a sinking rotation, but both were erratic and ineffective. With playoff hopes teetering, set-up man Tom Wilhelmsen took the ball on the second to last game of the season hoping to give the Mariners a much needed quality start.  He lasted only two innings.  As a result, Zduriencik has stated acquiring greater pitching depth will be an importance this offseason.  The Mariners will almost certainly try to find some veteran reclamation arms that they can stash in Tacoma. But another option that should be explored is finding a reliable arm that can swing between the bullpen and rotation. Over the past two seasons, Capuano has 32 starts and 32 relief appearances to his credit. In 2014, Capuano pitched out of the pen for Red Sox, and then moved into the Yankees’ starting rotation after being dealt at the trade deadline.

In 2014, Seager slashed a .268/.334/.454, hit 25 home runs, and won his first Gold Glove award. Of all the hoopla over Zduriencik’s ability to evaluate and acquire young talent, Seager is the only position player drafted during the Zduriencik era to have established themselves as a productive everyday player.  With free agency looming in 2018 and offensive production becoming a rare premium, locking up Seager should be near the top of Zduriencik’s to-do list.  A five year, $60M contract with an option for a sixth year should be welcomed with open arms. The yearly payout: $5M; $8M; $12M; $17M; $18M; $21M option.

Conclusion

With the additions of Kemp and Butler to join Cano and Seager, the Mariners would dramatically upgrade their middle of the batting order.  Kemp would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter behind Cano, and Butler would be a solid hitter to slot behind Seager.  Dealing Walker to the Dodgers would be a hard and unpopular decision, but with Hernandez and Iwakuma again at the top of the rotation, and the emergence of Paxton and Elias to anchor the back end, Gee would fill the need for a #3 pitcher who can eat innings.   Capuano would provide flexibility and depth for the pitching staff, as would den Dekker for the outfield.   The bench would be deep and flexible, with Bloomquist able to play the infield or outfield, Rivera able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and den Dekkar able to fill in at any  outfield position.

Two Trade Possibilites for Nick Franklin and the Mariners

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It’s been no secret that upon their acquisition of Robinson Cano, Nick Franklin became an expendable commodity for the Mariners.  Soon after the Cano signing, teams seeking infield help – the Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees to name a few – began surfacing as possible suitors for the highly regarded 23 year-old.   Despite the early rumblings, however, it hasn’t been until this past week that the Franklin rumor mill has started to heat up.   In the past seven days, the Mets, Rays, and now Yankees have emerged as possible landing spots for Franklin.  In fact, if not for the injury to Rays starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson, a Mariners-Rays deal was reportedly close to being finalized that would have sent the young second baseman to Tampa in exchange for one of the Rays’ starting pitchers.

With Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez both officially off the free agent market, and Ervin Santana seeking a Jimenez-like 4 year $50M contract, trade is now the likely route the Mariners will take to fill their believed needs: a mid-rotation starting pitcher and a centerfielder.  And if it’s true Jack Zduriencik is willing to part with Franklin, the Mariners could fill one – or both – of those needs by dealing Franklin to either the Mets or the Twins.

The Mets:

Lookout Landing recently did a nice piece on what the Mets have to offer as a potential trading partner, focusing much of their attention on whether young pitching prospects like Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero could be had in return for Franklin.  Both of those players would be solid returns for Franklin.  The question, however, is whether the Mariners should be targeting a young pitching prospect? It’s true that a team can never have enough young pitching talent.  And while Syndergaard or Montero meet that criteria and could be nice arms for the near future, neither help the Mariners’ current pitching needs for 2014.    The Mariners rotation will, presumably, contain two of baseball best young (and unproven) arms in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  An addition of Syndergaard or Montero would either replace one of Walker or Paxton, or simply add to the rotations expected youth and inexperience.  What the Mariners don’t have, and are in need of, is a solid veteran mid-rotation arm to slot in behind co-aces Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  As things stand now, the Mariners have to feel uncomfortable heading into the season with the prospect of having three untested and unproven young arms anchoring the back-end of the rotation.  And with Iwakuma still recovering from his finger injury and out for at least the next three weeks, the Mariners may be looking at having four young arms following Hernandez in the rotation to start the season.  Given that foreseeable abundance of youth and inexperience, a more established pitcher like Dillon Gee would be a better target for the Mariners than a Syndergaard or Montero.  Last season, Gee went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199.0 innings, posted a 1.281 WHIP, and is under team control for another three seasons.   Gee probably has reached his ceiling as a pitcher, but at just 27 years of age (Gee will turn 28 in April) he’s in the midst of his prime and should be expected keep producing those type of numbers for years to come.  That kind of production would be serviceable as a temporary #2 pitcher, and feature nicely as the Mariners’ #3 once Iwakuma returned to the rotation.

The other player Lookout Landing discussed was centerfielder Juan Lagares, whom we here at Mission Mariner believe could be a diamond in the making.  Lagares was signed by the Mets as a 17-year old amateur free agent in 2006, and began his professional career as a shortstop.   In 2009, the Mets moved him to the outfield where he logged time at all three outfield positions as he ascended through the minor league system.  Last year, after getting off to a sizzling .346/.378/.551 start at Triple-A, and after an injury to centerfielder Matt den Dekker,  Lagares was called up in late April, making his mlb debut at the age of 24.  In 121 games thereafter, Lagares would dazzle the league with his defensive range and throwing ability, posting a dWAR of 3.5, a 21.5 UZR (2nd in mlb), and 15 outfield assists (3rd in mlb).  Of course, it would be hard to imagine Lagares continuing to put up such astronomical defensive numbers.  But even with expected regression, Lagares would most likely still continue to provide above average defense at one of baseball’s most demanding and important positions.

While Lagares shined on defense, his offense, however, was a different story.  Lagares finished 2013 with a slash line of .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for centerfielders.  As good as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcoming is difficult to overlook for someone expected to account for 500+ plate appearances per season.  However, if there is a silver lining to take away from 2013 – perhaps a glint of potential to be found – Lagares’ offensive output was marred by early and late season swoons.  In May and September, Lagares slashed a .149/.184/.255 and .168/.216/.221 respectively.  During the three months in between, Lagares put up a respectable .288/.325/.420, highlighted by a .353/.408/.529 July.  Of course, it would be silly to make any sort of judgments or conclusions based on those numbers.  But it does beg the question whether Lagares was a below average hitter who just happened to get hot, or whether he was a potential league average hitter who got off to a slow start and then tired at the end of the season?  Truthfully, time will only tell.  But if the answer is foreseen to be closer to the latter than it is to the former, then Lagares would be a very valuable asset to have.

In assessing the trade availability of Gee and Lagares, the Mets have not let it be known whether either are available.  With the recent injury scare to opening day starter Jon Niese, and Lagares showing flashes of offensive potential, the Mets may have no intention of trading either player.   But with the likes of Syndergaard, Montero, Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zach Wheeler, Jenrry Meiji, and Jon Lannon all vying for rotation jobs in 2014, and with ace Matt Harvey expected back from injury next season, someone like Gee could be seen as a soon-to-be odd man out and therefore available.  As for Lagares, the Mets already have a handful of capable centerfielders in den Dekker, Chris Young, and Eric Young, Jr.  Prospect Cesar Puello, despite his connection to the Biogenesis scandal, is also an up-and-coming centerfielder who put up a .950 OPS last year at Double-A.   With center field seemingly covered, Lagares, like Dee, may be seen as an expendable commodity.  If both were to be true of Dee and Lagares, the Mariners could try and deal for both, possibly offering up a package of Franklin and one of Blake Beavan, Brandon Maurer, or Erasmo Ramirez, all of whom could be serviceable arms out of the Met’s bullpen and/or capable of filling in as back-end starters.

The Twins:

The other possibility for the Mariners is centerfielder Aaron Hicks of the Twins.  Hicks is a five-tool player taken 14th overall in the 2008 draft, and the player the Mariners tried to get Minnesota to include with catcher Wilson Ramos back in 2010 when Cliff Lee was being dangled at the trade deadline.   Hicks started off his pro career by scorching Gulf Coast League pitching to the tune of .318/.409/491 in 45 games, and giving Twins’ management early validation that Hicks was indeed a future star.  But over the next three seasons, Hicks’ star would dim a bit, posting OPS’s of .735 and .829 during two years at the Class A, and then a .722 OPS at Advanced Class A.  Promoted to Double-A in 2012, Hicks lit up the Eastern League with a .285/.382/.459, 13 homeruns and 32 stolen bases.  Hicks would carry that hot hitting over to the Twins’ 2013 Spring Training, where he blistered the Grapefruit League with a .370/.407/.644, four homeruns, and gold glove caliber defense.  That encore led Twins management to believe that Hicks had arrived, and named him the starting centerfielder.  But come the start of the regular season, Hicks struggled right out of the gate, seemingly never being able to get comfortable at the mlb level.  In 81 games, Hicks struggled to a .192/.259/.338.  His strikeouts were steep (26.8%) and his walks scant (7.7%).  And most surprising, Hicks’ vaunted defense was shaky, making the difficult play look routine, and the routine play look difficult.  After five disappointing months, Hicks was demoted to Triple-A.

Naturally, 81 games at the mlb level does not a career make.  And it’s certainly not enough time to warrant giving up on a player, especially a player with great upside.  But Hicks’ future with the Twins seems to be unclear.  With Hicks’ demotion back to the minors, the Twins went out and traded for Alex Presley, who is now slated to be the Twins starting centerfielder.  Presley, though, is merely keeping center field warm until highly touted Byron Buxton arrives in a few years, at which point Presley will move to whichever corner outfield spot is not being occupied by Oswaldo Arcia.  That ostensibly leaves Hicks on the outs, or at least in an up hill fight with Presley or Acia to win back an outfield job.  And if top power hitting prospect Miguel Sano is moved from third base to the outfield, that could make it even tougher for Hicks to work his way back into the starting lineup.

In assessing a possible trade, the question is whether Hicks would be enough of a return in the eyes of the Mariners?  Both Hicks and Franklin were highly rated prospects, both are under team control for similar amount of years, and both would be obtained to play elite positions.  But because of Hicks’ underachieving 2013, questions now surround his future prognosis as a mlb regular.  Fangraphs’ Oliver projects a five-year WAR of 17.5 for Franklin, but only a  12.3 for Hicks.  For 2014 alone, Oliver projects a 3.1 WAR for Franklin and a 2.4 WAR for Hicks.  In addition, Zduriencik’s penchant for valuing quantity over quality may make a one-for-one trade not so appealing to the Mariners.

Despite what the numbers say, though, its difficult to ignore the huge upside that Hicks possesses.  Like the Mets’ Lagares, Hicks would provide – at a minimum – above average defense in center field, something sorely needed for the Mariners especially if Corey Hart and/or Logan Morrison end up in the outfield.  But unlike Lagares, Hicks would offer considerable offensive upside, including the ability to get on base (career 14.7% walk rate, .376 OBP in the minors).  If his minor league walk rate and OBP are anywhere close to being indicative of what it would be at the mlb level, Hicks would fill another huge need for the Mariners as a leadoff hitter capable of swiping a base or two.

Franklin for Hicks?  Another interesting possibility.  And one the Mariners would be fools not to explore.