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Seattle Mariners 2020 Preview, Offseason Plan

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After six months of playing pretty ghastly baseball, the Seattle Mariners concluded their first year of “stepping back” with a much clearer vision of what the future may look like, and the success that will hopefully come with it.

Despite finishing the season with a 68-94 record, the Mariners saw improvement in many key areas important to their rebuilding effort thereby providing the organization, and fans alike, encouragement that the plan is progressing in the right direction.

The minor league system received strong performances from most of the organization’s top prospects, led by Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Jake Fraley, and Evan White.  As a result, a farm system ranked as one of the worst in baseball prior to the start of the 2019 season found itself in the top ten by year’s end.

Additionally, many of the prospects being counted upon in the rebuilding effort were not only able to make the jump to the majors, but also find some success in their first exposure against the game’s top talents.

JP Crawford and Shed Long displayed the offense, defense, and teamwork to affirm their status as the Mariners’ middle infield of the future.  Kyle Lewis’ torrent start to his MLB career reminded fans why he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball before suffering a devastating knee injury in 2016.  Despite inconsistency, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn showed flashes of dominance lending credence to each player’s top prospect billing.  And Erik Swanson, Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, and Sam Tuivailala provided a glimpse into the type of young talented arms that will comprise the team’s bullpen in the years to come.

The progress and achievements made by the Mariners’ minor leaguers and young rookies receiving their first taste of major league competition was about all Dipoto could have asked for in the first year of his abridged rebuilding plan.  Now, heading into the second phase of the step-back, the plan is to let the kids play.

Describing what to expect in 2020, Dipoto explained, “We’re looking at our young group and wanting to let them run with it. That’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

Dipoto continued, “As far as the position player group, I think most of what we’re going to do has already been done…that’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

In other words, the Mariners’ roster heading into 2020 is, for the most part, already set.  That is not to say Dipoto won’t be looking to add a few pieces.  A couple veteran relievers would be welcomed additions to a bullpen that will be short on experience.  In addition, a starting pitcher or two will be needed to help fill out a rotation that returns just two starters from last season.  However, while Dipoto has stated he will be keeping his eyes open for players that can help in either of those two areas, no one should be expecting any flashy acquisitions.  With the goal to give as much playing time as possible to the younger players, any veterans added will surely be on short-term deals so as to not block the progress of prospects, and to allow those veteran acquisitions to be easily traded should/when that need arises.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2020 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

The Moves 

  • Trade 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Dan Altavilla to the Cubs for SP/RP Tyler Chatwood

The Skinny:  Three reasons make this trade is a no-brainer: 1) The Mariners will be targeting a veteran starting pitcher for their rotation; 2) Dee Gordon is currently blocking Shed Long at 2B; and 3)  The Cubs are searching for stability at 2B.  With both Gordon and Chatwood in the final years of their respective contracts that pay each player nearly the same, a Gordon-for-Chatwood swap seems primed for the making.

  • Trade OF/DH Domingo Santana to the White Sox for LHP Jace Fry and INF Danny Mendick.

The Skinny:  Domingo Santana’s year-long defensive struggles in the outfield demonstrated that the power hitter’s best position is at DH.  However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at the position, the team finds itself with the less-than-ideal prospect of having to use Santana in the outfield again in 2020.  The White Sox finished the season ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in home runs, and are faced with losing a handful of hitters to free agency, including Jose Abreu and his 33 HRs and league leading 123 RBI.

  • Trade Tom Murphy to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Patrick Weigel 

The Skinny: With Brian McCann’s retirement and Francisco Cervelli a free agent, the Braves will be in the market for someone who, at the least, can share in the starting catcher duties should they pick up Tyler Flowers’ option.  With Tom Murphy’s surprise showing in 2019 (.858 OPS, 18 HRs) the Mariners have one to offer in exchange for something all rebuilding teams desire: a high upside major league ready pitching prospect.

  • Sign SP Kendall Graveman to a one year, $2.5M deal

The Skinny:  With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone free agents, the Mariners will need to find a few arms to fill out their rotation.  Baring trades, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi should be locks for the rotation, with top pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn given every chance to win rotation jobs out of Spring Training.  Kendall Graveman missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Projected to be healthy for 2020, Gravemen presents the ideal low risk/high reward player to slot into the back of the rotation.

  • Sign RHP Pedro Strop to a one year, $6M deal

The Mariners bullpen will rely on a handful of young high-octane arms age 26 and younger.  Adding an established veteran or two would help provide balance to a relief corps that lacks experience.  One of the better set-up men in baseball, Pedro Strop struggled through an injury plagued 2019 season where he posted some of the worst numbers of his career.  Looking to bounce back in 2020, Strop offers the Mariners an experienced arm that can bridge to the 9th inning or close.

  • Sign C’s Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training

With Tom Murphy traded to Atlanta, the Mariners will need to find someone to serve as a backup catcher to Omar Narvaez.  With Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre, the Mariners bring back two familiar faces to battle for the backup catcher role.  The Mariners do have top catching prospect Cal Raleigh knocking on the MLB door, but a call-up may not be in the cards until September.  Austin Nola is also capable of filling the backup catcher role, but he will most likely be the starting first baseman until Evan White is ready to take over, which should be sometime after July.

The 25-Man

Infield: 1B Austin Nola ($555K); 2B Shed Long ($555K); SS JP Crawford ($555K); 3B Kyle Seager ($19.5M); C Omar Narvaez ($2.9M)

Outfield: LF Kyle Lewis ($555K); CF Mallex Smith ($2.7M); RF Mitch Haniger ($3.0M)

Designated Hitter: Daniel Vogelbach ($559M)

Bench: OF Jake Fraley ($555K); UT Danny Mendick ($555K); C Jesus Sucre/Jose Lobaton ($750K)

Rotation: Marco Gonzales ($1.0M); Yusei Kikuchi ($16.0M); Justus Sheffield ($555K); Justin Dunn ($555K); Tyler Chatwood ($13.0M)

Bullpen: Tyler Guilbeau (L) ($555K); Jace Fry (L) ($569K); Erik Swanson ($555K); Sam Tuivailala ($900K); Art Warren ($555K); Gerson Bautista ($555K); Patrick Weigel ($555K); Pedro Strop ($6.0M).

The Wrap 

With the plan to hand the reins over to the organization’s young players while filling needs in-house, the Mariners won’t be looking to add a whole lot during the offseason other than a handful of players who can supplement a youthful roster and serve as safety nets in case any struggle.  The Mariners still have a couple trade chips in Marco Gonzales and Mitch Haniger, both of whom could bring back significant returns.  But the Mariners would be best to hold onto both players as Gonzales has established himself as a quality (and affordable) starter for a rotation short on quality (and affordable) starters and, after an injury plagued 2019 season, a trade of Haniger would see the Mariners selling low(er) on the former All-Star and MVP candidate.

In assessing the Mariners needs, the first order of business is to find a taker for Dee Gordon who is blocking Shed Long at 2B.

In his first taste of MLB action, Long slashed a .263/.333/.454 in 42 games, including a .289/.337/.518 in 23 September games, and formed a productive keystone combination with SS JP Crawford.  Gordon has never produced with the Mariners as he did with Miami where he won a batting title and two stolen base crowns.  However, some (much?) of that can be blamed on injuries.  After his first 45 games in 2018, Gordon fractured his toe and was placed on the injured list along with a .304 batting average and league leading 16 stolen bases.  The toe never fully healed, and Gordon struggled for the rest of year as a result.  Last season Gordon, again, got off to a solid start hitting .304 with 10 stolen bases in his first 38 games.  However, a JA Happ fastball off his right wrist, again, landed Gordon on the injured list.  Then in July, Gordon found himself back on the injured list with a strained quad.

Nevertheless, when healthy, Gordon displayed the type of speed, defense, and hitting ability that saw him average a .309/.340/.384 and 49 stolen bases over three seasons with the Marlins. Gordon’s biggest drawback, of course, is a contract that owes him $14.5M for the 2020 season including a $1M buyout in 2021.  To trade him, Seattle would have to cover a large portion of the money owed to Gordon, or take on a similar contract.

The Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood to a 3 year/$38M deal as a free agent in 2017.  However, Chatwood struggled in his first year as a starter, producing a 4-6 record and a 5.16 ERA in 20 starts.  Relegated to the bullpen for most of last season, Chatwood found greater success as a reliever posting a 3.67 ERA in 33 appearances. Now in the final year of his deal, Chatwood is set to earn $13M in 2020 from a Cubs team looking to find some consistency at 2B where seven players started at least 13 games at the position in 2019.

With Gordon due $1.5M more than Chatwood, the Cubs may not be willing to take on additional money in a straight across trade, or may feel that Gordon, alone, is not enough in return for a player who did produce decent numbers as a long reliever.  In any event, the Mariners may have to include an extra piece in the deal such as Dan Altavilla who, despite a tantalizing 98 mph fastball and some success at the MLB level, is now out of options and still looking to establish himself as a major league reliever.

The Mariners acquired Domingo Santana with the hope that the slugger could revert to the offensive force he was in 2017 when he slashed .278/.371/.505 and 30 HRs.  To the delight of the Mariners, Santana was on pace to replicate those numbers with a .286/.354/.496 and 18 home runs in his first 90 games.  However, right elbow inflammation suffered in July and a subsequent month-long stint on the injured list in August derailed what had been an impressive offensive showing to that point.

While Santana’s offense was a bright spot, his defense was a different story.  Santana produced a -23.8 UZR/150 and -10 DRS in left field, and -18.1 UZR/150 and -7 DRS in right field. Now knowing these defensive shortcomings, a move to DH is in order. However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at DH, getting Santana into the everyday lineup would require playing him in the field where his porous defense negates any offensive value.

The White Sox primarily employed Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, and Wellington Castillo at DH in 2019.  However, with Abreu and Castillo both free agents, and Alonso released mid season, the White Sox will be in the market for a few bats to help bolster an offense that was one of the worst in the American League.  Specifically, adding power to its lineup should be on the White Sox’s to-do list, where Santana’s bat would fit nicely into the team’s opening at DH.

In return, the Mariners would receive left-handed reliever Jace Fry.  Despite an underwhelming 4.75 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 2019, Fry still managed to carry an 11.13 K/9 and a 57% ground ball rate.  More importantly, Fry held left-handed batters to just a .193 average while producing an 11.25 K/9 and a 63% ground ball rate.  Fry would join Taylor Guilbeau as the other lefty out of the bullpen.  Additionally, the Mariners also receive utility player Danny Mendick who, prior to last season, never ranked among the White Sox’s top 30 prospects.  However, the 26 year old’s surprising .279/.368/.444 at Triple A landed him at No. 26 by year’s end.  The White Sox rewarded Mendick with a September call-up where he produced a respectable .308/.325/.462 in 16 games.  With the White Sox already having Leury Garcia in the utility role, Mendick’s ability win a roster spot in the coming seasons could be difficult. With the Mariners, Mendick would represent an upgrade over Dylan Moore who served the utility role for the team last year.

Acquiring Tom Murphy from the Giants for minor leaguer Jesus Ozoria may have been one of the top unheralded moves in baseball last year.  Failing to establish himself with Colorado over four seasons, the Rockies released Murphy prior to the 2019 season.  The Giants picked him up and promptly flipped him to Seattle where the former top prospect produced the best numbers of his career with a .273/.324/.535 and 18 HRs in 75 games.  With Omar Narvaez returning as the starting catcher, and Austin Nola capable of catching if needed, the Mariners should look to take advantage of a thin free agent catching market where several teams are searching for upgrades.

With Atlanta one of those teams, the Mariners would be wise to sell high on Murphy.  Here, the Mariners send Murphy to the Braves for the team’s No. 12 rated prospect in Patrick Weigel.  The 25-year-old was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2016 when Weigel went a combined 11-6 with a 2.47 ERA between Single-A and Double-A.  Primed to break into the Braves rotation in 2017, Weigel underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his throwing elbow.  In his first full season back last season, Weigel split time between Double-A and Triple-A where he made a combined 18 starts with a 3.20 ERA, and 10 relief appearances with a 1.35 ERA.  With a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s, Weigel projects as a middle to backend starter.  Yet, in shorter outings, Weigel can run his fastball up into the high 90’s thereby making scouts believe he could thrive in a late inning set-up role or even as a closer.

From 2015 to 2017, Kendall Graveman posted a record of 22-24 with a 4.11 ERA over 71 starts while with the Athletics.  However, in July of 2018, Graveman underwent Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his throwing arm requiring him to miss most of the 2019 season.  The Cubs signed Graveman that offseason to a league minimum one-year deal with a $3M option for 2020.  The hope was for Graveman to be able to recover by the end of last year and then help the Cubs the following season as a starter or reliever. Ultimately, however, the Cubs decided not to pick up Graveman’s option.

With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone all free agents, the Mariners need to find a few arms to round out their rotation.  Justus Sheffield is being counted on to fill one of the spots behind returning starters Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi. And Justin Dunn will be provided every opportunity to earn another rotation job.  The proposed trades for Tyler Chatwood and Patrick Weigel could result in one or both winning spots in the rotation. Additionally, the Mariners will take long looks at prospects Logan Gilbert, Ricardo Sanchez, and Anthony Misiewicz.  Of course, any starting staff relying on a handful of untested rookies and/or veterans trying to recapture past glory should recognize the inherent risks associated with such a plan.  Therefore, adding depth  to the rotation will be important.  Graveman provides the ideal veteran to stash in Triple-A due to the fact he will need to spend some time in the minors to build up arm strength, but also has a minor league option left.  As such, the Mariners can offer Graveman a major league deal, send him to Tacoma to start the season, and then bring him up when ready and needed.

One area the Mariners could see the most improvement in during the 2020 season is the bullpen. Much of 2019 was spent auditioning young’ish relievers who, despite still offering some upside, were released by other teams.  By August, the auditioning seemingly stopped and the Mariners settled on a group of relievers that included Sam Tuivailala, Erik Swanson, Art Warren, Matt Magill, Austin Adams, and Taylor Guilbeau.  Over the last two months of the season, that group helped combine for a 4.54 ERA and 4.48 FIP ranking them 8th and 9th respectively in the American League.  While far from dazzling, those numbers proved to be an improvement over the 4.90 ERA and 5.08 FIP produced by the Mariners bullpen in the four preceding months, ranking them near the bottom in the AL.

A quality veteran reliever (or two) should be targeted to bolster a projected young and inexperienced bullpen. Over the past six seasons, Pedro Strop has been one of the top relievers in baseball.  However, 2019 saw Strop turn in one of the worst seasons of his career.  Whether it was age finally catching up to the 34-year-old, or the nagging hamstring issues that landed him on the injured list twice, Strop’s 4.97 ERA was a far cry from the 2.61 ERA he had averaged over the prior five seasons. Still, Strop managed a 10.58 K/9 and induced ground balls at a 52.9% rate.  It’s not unreasonable to believe that a return to health from his leg issues should result in Strop getting back to numbers closer to his career norms. Moreover, Strop’s experience closing – where he has racked up 23 saves over the past two seasons – could prove vital for a Mariners bullpen hoping to find a closer among its many relief prospects.

Mariners’ fans may remember Jesus Sucre’s tenure with the team when he served as a backup for parts of four seasons from 2013 to 2016.  Sucre doesn’t bring much with the bat, but he has always been an above average defender. Sucre began 2019 with the Orioles big league team but after producing a .210/.269/.242 in 20 games he accepted an assignment to Triple-A.  Labaton spent most of 2019 as the starting catcher at Tacoma until traded to the Dodgers in August for cash considerations. A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Lobatan does not offer the type of defense that Sucre brings, but his bat is a bit more potent, and his ability to switch-hit offers the Mariners a left-handed compliment to the right-handed hitting Narvaez.  Either catcher would offer affordable veteran depth until top catching prospect Cal Raleigh joins the Mariners, presumably at some point during the second half of the season.

Conclusion       

The Mariners two biggest question marks heading into 2020 will be the rotation and bullpen.  Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will try to win jobs behind Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi.  Not taking any chances, the Mariners hedge their bets with the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, and Patrick Weigel, all of whom are capable of starting but could also be used in relief.   Jace Fry adds experience to a bullpen that will consist mainly of relievers with no more than one year of MLB service time to their name.  And Pedro Strop’s experience in the closer’s role could help alleviate any possible problems should the Mariners not find a closer among their group of young, high upside relievers.

Moreover, none of the acquisitions hinder prospect development, and all come with team friendly contracts that allow each to be easily traded if need be.

Dipoto has made it clear that most of the playing time in the coming season will be provided to those players who figure prominently in the organization’s foreseen 2021 launching point for playoff contention.  As such, the Mariners primary focus should be to acquire players who can support, guide, and nurture the inexperience that will seemingly saturate the 25-man roster, and the offseason moves mentioned above hopefully do just that.

Seattle Mariners 2019 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Re-imagine.

That is the word of the day.

No, not because the Mariners would like to re-imagine a 2018 season that saw the team sprint out to a 59-38 first half record giving fans visions of their first playoff appearance since 2001, only to then stumble to a 31-34 second half record that resulted in a 17th straight year of missing the post season.

Rather, re-imagine, as in GM Jerry Dipoto’s stated offseason plan heading into the 2019 season.

At the General Managers Meeting in Carlsbad, California, Dipoto talked about his offseason intentions to re-imagine the state of the Mariners.

“We’re open-minded to different ways we can get better, but what we’re hoping to achieve is to re-imagine our roster to look at it in terms of what is our quickest path to a championship club.”

Dipoto continued.

“We know what the Astros, Red Sox, A’s, Yankees and Indians look like. We don’t want to be a perpetual competitor for the second Wild Card. We want to build a championship roster…[w]hether through free agency or trade, we want to gather as much talent as we can.”

In other words, the Mariners are at a crossroads.

For the most part, Dipoto has maximized the dreadful minor league system he inherited by flipping the best of the worst prospects for a young core of MLB producers such as Ben Gamel, James Pazos, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales. And with James Paxton finally establishing himself as a true ace, Edwin Diaz transforming into an elite closer, and Robinson Cano still a very productive hitter, the Mariners have the talent to compete for a Wild Card. But Dipoto has his eyes set on being a World Series contender, and he is astute enough to know that his roster is a few pieces short of moving up to that level.

And therein lies the challenge.  With a reticence towards trading away top prospects due to the organization’s goal of rebuilding the minor league system, and the unlikelihood of being able to move any of the team’s veterans due to their hefty contracts, how does one make the necessary moves to elevate to the class of World Series contender?

The answer is to either raise payroll to allow for the acquisition of premiere free agents, or to deal off one or two of your young productive core players in exchange for a handful of highly rated MLB-ready prospects who you hope will reach their projected star potential.

Based on Dipoto’s track record and recent comments, it appears he is planning to go the route of the latter.

Last season we contended that the Mariners starting rotation merely had to stay healthy in order to provide the type of production needed for a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  And that notion held true.

In a reversal from 2017, Mariners starting pitchers avoided injury and, as a result, produced 77 quality starts, raising their near league worst number from the year before to the 8th best mark last season. With the rotation healthy and able to provide quality starts throughout the season, the starting staff was worth 11.7 fWAR, ranking them 5th in the league.  In addition, the bullpen, led by Edwin Diaz’s MLB-best 57 saves, tallied a 5.1 fWAR, also ranking them 5th in the league.

The offense, however, was a different story.

Despite receiving solid run production during the first three months of the season (4.4 runs/game through June), injuries to Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon, an 80 game PED suspension to Cano, and year-long struggles by Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino eventually became a weight too heavy to bear.  July slumps by Haniger, Segura, and Cruz would then bring the offense to its knees,  and the Mariners would go on to score just 3.3 runs/game over the  final three months of the season.

Most concerning, however, was the realization that once through the top half of the order (Haniger, Segura, Cruz and Cano) the Mariners received minimal production from the rest of the lineup.  In other words, the offense lacked length and, as a result, once an opposing pitcher worked past the first few hitters of the lineup, the rest posed little threat.

While the starting rotation and bullpen are two areas that can always benefit from another addition or two, Dipoto’s main objective heading into the offseason must be to create a more balanced batting order that will receive production throughout the entire lineup, not just from a few players.  With limited resources at his disposal, Dipoto may need to be creative in how he re-imagines his roster into one that can challenge the elite teams like Houston, Boston and New York.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2019 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade SP James Paxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers for SP Alex Wood, OF Alex Verdugo, and SP Dustin May

The Skinny: James Paxton and Edwin Diaz are Dipoto’s two most valuable trade assets. And with Paxton being a free agent in two years, the decision is to maximize his trade value by dealing him to a team looking to win it all in 2019.  Here, the key returns for the Mariners are center fielder Alex Verdugo and starting pitcher Dustin May, the #32 and #69 rated MLB prospects coming into 2018.  Verdugo, 22, is MLB-ready and possesses all the attributes Dipoto is looking for in a young player: athleticism, pure hitting ability, zone control, and plus defense. Blocked in Los Angeles due to a crowded outfield, Verdugo would immediately be penciled in as the Mariners opening day center fielder.  May, 21, is a lanky 6’6” 21-year-old righty who contains four quality pitches including a plus fastball that touches upper 90’s. A projected frontline starter, May would require another year of development in the minors before joining the Mariners rotation. To help bridge that one-year gap while also replacing Paxton’s productivity, the Mariners acquire 27-year-old Alex Wood who will enter free agency after the 2019 season. A fixture atop the Dodgers rotation the past several years, Wood made 27 starts in 2018 and produced a 3.65 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.72 xFIP, a 3.36 K/BB ratio, and a 49.2% ground ball rate.  Despite having Wood in the rotation for just one season, the Mariners would have the option of offering Wood a qualifying offer at season’s end where they would be in position to possibly receive a compensatory first-round draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming his contract is for at least $50M).

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to San Diego Padres for LF Wil Myers

The Skinny: The Mariners would love to get out from under Kyle Seager’s contract. However, without taking on most of the money still owed to him, trading Seager is a near impossibility.  In addition, the return they would receive would most likely be uninspiring.  So instead, the Mariners and Padres execute a one-for-one trade involving two historically productive players, signed to similarly bad contracts, who are both coming off down seasons.  Deals of this nature are somewhat unusual, but this one benefits both teams involved on several fronts.  With a crowded outfield and  Eric Hosmer – last year’s big free agent acquisition – entrenched at first base, the Padres no longer have to continue the Wil Myers experiment at third base as they now add a gold glover at the hot corner who is still in his prime and just a few years removed from a season where he received MVP consideration. Additionally, Seager’s remaining contract of three years/$56M is one year and $8M less than Myers’ outstanding commitment. For the Mariners, the 27-year-old Myers would be an upgrade over Gamel in left field, and although the Mariners would be taking on a contract that is slightly longer and more expensive than the one being giving up, the roster would get younger and Myers’ $3M owed in 2019 would free up $16M for Dipoto to spend elsewhere.

Trade RP Chasen Bradford & OF Guillermo Heredia to the Philadelphia Phillies for 3B Maikel Franco.

The Skinny: With Seager dealt to the Padres, the Mariners turn to Philadelphia to fill their third base vacancy. Once considered the future at third base after slashing a .280/.343/.497 his rookie season while also showing a strong arm and good range, Maikel Franco has underwhelmed since. Over the past three seasons, Franco has averaged a .250/.299/.431 and shown a propensity to chase pitches outside the strike zone. And his defense has declined from being slightly above average in 2016 (+2.5 UZR) to below average in 2018 (-5.0 UZR). With rumors circulating that the Phillies are looking to move on from their former top prospect, Franco’s young age (26), raw abilities, and control (free agent in 2022) should make him a target for the Mariners.

Sign Lonnie Chisenhall to a two year/$10M contract.

The Skinny: Can one (re)imagine what Lonnie Chisenhall could do if he just stayed healthy? To get a sense of what that could look like, one would have to go back to 2016 when Chisenhall slashed a solid .286/.328/.439 with 38 extra base hits in 418 plate appearances. Shoulder and nagging calf injuries have limited his playing time since then, but when healthy enough to step into the batter’s box (111 games, 365 at-bats) Chisenhall showed he can still wield a productive bat by putting up a rather gaudy .297/.368/.503.  With Nelson Cruz headed towards a free agent payday that will undoubtedly be too rich for the Mariners’ liking, and Dipoto hinting he would prefer to move away from a DH-only type of player, the more versatile Chisenhall can step in as the primary designated hitter where reduced field time will (hopefully) keep him off the disabled list, in addition to being able to play third base or a corner outfield position should the occasional need arise. 

Sign SP Charlie Morton to a three year, $48M contract.

The Skinny: At age 34, Charlie Morton continues to defy father time. Last year Morton produced one of the best seasons of his career by posting a record of 15-3 (30 starts) with a 3.13 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.42 xFIP and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. In addition, the right-hander continued to show impressive velocity (mid-90’s fastball) and a good ability to keep the ball on the ground (47%). While two years would be a preferred contract length for someone about to turn 35, offering three years is not unreasonable as Rich Hill, at age 36, signed a three year/$48M deal with the Dodgers just prior to the 2017 season. And with Morton showing no signs of slowing down, the Mariners should feel confident he will remain productive throughout the life of the contract.

Sign INF/OF Josh Harrison to a one year, $4M contract with a second year $4M player option and $2M team buyout.

The Skinny: Last season, veteran Andrew Romine served as the Mariners primary utility player where he saw time at every position other than catcher and pitcher. In that role, Romine played in 75 games, slashed a .210/.260/.244, struck out at a near 30% clip, and produced a woeful 44 wRC+.  Looking for more offense, the Mariners ink the versatile Josh Harrison who is capable of playing second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and right field. A career .277/.317/.408 hitter, Harrison played in 97 games last season and slashed a .250/.293/.363 with a 78 wRC+. While those numbers are a slight dip from his career numbers, Harrison is just one-year removed from producing a .272/.339/.432, 104 wRC+, and a 2.6 fWAR playing 128 games played at second base, third base, and left field.  Even if Harrison repeats his numbers from last season, such production will be a fairly significant upgrade over Romine.

The 25-Man  

Infield: 1B Robinson Cano ($24M); 2B Dee Gordon ($13.3M); SS Jean Segura ($14.85M); 3B Maikel Franco ($5.1M); C: Mike Zunino ($4.2M)

Outfield: LF Wil Myers ($5.5M); CF Alex Verdugo ($500K); RF Mitch Haniger ($600K)

Designated Hitter: Lonnie Chisenhall ($5M)

Bench: UT Josh Harrison ($4M); OF Ben Gamel ($600K); C David Freitas ($500K)

Rotation: Charlie Morton ($16M); Alex Wood ($9M); Mike Leake ($11M); Marco Gonzales ($900K); Wade LeBlanc ($2.3M)/Felix Hernandez ($27.86M)

Bullpen: Roenis Elias ($1M); James Pazos ($500K); Matt Festa ($500K); Shawn Armstrong ($500K); Juan Nicasio ($9.25M); Alex Colome ($7.3M); Edwin Diaz ($500K); LeBlanc/Hernandez

The Wrap

Our offseason plan involves six moves that total $45.1M.  Adding in players already under contract and projected arbitration figures, this would bring the opening day 25-man payroll to roughly $166M, which would be an increase of about $8M from last year.

The plan is a two-prong approach that keeps in line with how Dipoto has gone about restructuring the Mariners. On one hand, Dipoto continues to add younger controlled players like Verdugo, May and Myers who project as productive foundational pieces moving forward. On the other hand, proven veterans are also brought in on reasonable short-term deals, such as Wood, Morton, and Harrison, who will provide upgraded production to help improve upon last seasons 89 wins. 

In addition, a few of the transactions are made with the intent of not just upgrading one particular position, but triggering a domino effect that upgrades other positions as well.

For example, while Verdugo’s offensive skills project highly at the MLB level, his defense should be an immediate upgrade over both Gordon and Guillermo Heredia in center field. With Verdugo in center, Gordon can remain at second base where he is a better defender than Cano, and Cano can then move to first base where he would be a significant upgrade over Healy.

Likewise, Myers’ offense (25 doubles, 11 homeruns in 2018) and defense (3.4 UZR, +4 DRS) is not only an upgrade in left field, but would then allow Gamel to become the team’s fourth outfielder where he should prove superior to Heredia, who slashed a meager .236/.318/.342 and provided a -10 DRS in the outfield.

On the pitching front, a Charlie Morton-Alex Wood tandem at the top of the rotation represents a much stronger one-two punch over last season’s Felix Hernandez-James Paxton duo, as the former combined for 5.7 fWAR while the latter totaled 4.1 fWAR. Moreover, the additions of Morton and Wood, followed by Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales, would then provide the Mariners the ability to use either Hernandez or Wade LeBlanc in a swing role, splitting their respective time between long relief and starting.

Of course, the offseason is not without taking  few chances on players looking to reach their upside on a consistent basis.  Throughout his career, Franco has flashed moments of his projected star ceiling, none more than last year when he carried the Phillies’ offense for the entire month of July by slashing a .330/.378/.593 with seven home runs.  And Chisenhall has shown he is more than capable of being an .800 OPS hitter when healthy.

One may have noticed no moves were made in regard to the Mariners’ bullpen.  This was by design as relievers are typically the most overpaid, yet most volatile, players on a roster and rarely live up to the contracts they are given.  Moreover, the organization’s minor league system is deep with hard throwing relievers nearing the majors, as well as the fact that the Mariners will return a bevy of solid bullpen arms who pitched for them last season.  

One decision Dipoto will have to make regarding the bullpen is whether to carry seven or eight relievers.  Such a decision will have a direct effect on what the team does with Healy and Dan Vogelbach, the latter of which is out of options.  If Dipoto chooses to carry seven relievers, then a choice will need to be made as to who to keep as a bench piece.  With Healy still having options, our preference would be to start him at Tacoma and give Vogelbach another opportunity to prove himself at the major league level.  However, the Mariners are sure to keep eight relievers meaning Vogelbach – at some point – will have to be traded, with Healy beginning the year as a Rainier.  

R.A. Dickey Could Be The Pitcher The Mariners Need

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With pitchers and catchers set to report to camp in roughly three weeks, the Mariners continue to keep an eye on the free agent market for the possibility of adding one more pitcher to their starting rotation.

GM Jerry Dipoto has gone on record to say he is “confident” with his current rotation. If that notion holds true, the Mariners will stroll into the 2018 season with James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez occupying the top four rotation positions, with the final spot being filled by Ariel Miranda, Andrew Moore, Marco Gonzales, or Max Povse.

While we have detailed how holding firm on the current state of the rotation could have merit, it is still our opinion that adding one more proven starting pitcher would be the prudent move to make.

Someone who could give the Mariners around 30 starts, close to 200 innings, and not go too far north of a 4.00 ERA would be the ideal candidate.

Certainly any one of the big four – Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – would be capable of meeting such wants. However, with those four pitchers having dealt with recent arm injuries and looking to sign four or five year deals for upwards of $100M or more, making that type of commitment to a 30-somethings pitcher with health concerns is a risky endeavor.

Jaime Garcia is someone whose asking price should be a bit more economical, and he comes close to meeting the criterion after having averaged 28 starts, 164 innings, and a 4.55 ERA over the past two seasons.

However, while a deal for Garcia should probably not exceed two years, Tyler Chatwood’s three-year deal with the Cubs still remains the market bench mark for starting pitching. As a result, the much more experienced Garcia is surely looking for a similar type contract, if not better. A three-year deal might be too much for a soon-to-be 32 year old pitcher who has already undergone the holy trinity of arm surgeries: Tommy John, rotator cuff, and thoracic outlet.

Outside of Garcia, there isn’t much left to choose from. Ostensibly, the Mariners would have to take a flyer on a bounce back candidate such as Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, or even Andrew Cashner. Yet, after enduring the not-so-good Yovanni Gallardo experiment, it would be difficult to see Dipoto dip back into that well again.

But what about R.A. Dickey?

Now, before you go all Jackie Moon on me, consider what the knuckle baller accomplished in 2017.

The 43-year-old Dickey started 31 games and tossed 190.0 innings for an average of 6.12 innings per start. In addition, Dickey produced a solid 4.26 ERA, struck out over twice as many batters than he walked, and kept the ball on the ground 46.9% of the time.

Not bad, right? Well, it gets better.

Digging into his game logs, Dickey managed to pitch at least six innings in 22 of his 31 starts, including seven or more innings in 11 of his starts.

Zoom out even more, and Dickey went at least five innings in 29 of his 31 starts, and allowed four earned runs or less in 26 of his 31 games.

Don’t look now, but that’s the type of return on investment one would expect from Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn.

And it would cost just a fraction of the price. Say, a one-year deal for $10M.

Such reliable production would be a huge stabilizer to a somewhat precarious Mariners rotation.

In addition, it would give Dipoto options, such as moving Ramirez to the bullpen, thereby adding another solid multi-inning reliever to Dipoto’s “wolfpack” relief corps.  It would also take some of the pressure off a less experienced arm like Gonzales should he emerge from Spring Training as the fifth starter.

That all said, Dickey has hinted at retiring in order to spend more time with his family. Moreover, even if Dickey did decide to post-pone retirement for another season, would he even consider a team that is over 2,300 miles away from his home in Nashville?

Dickey has stated that any team he decides to play for in 2018 would have to present the “ideal situation” for him and his family. One would have to assume close proximity to Nashville would be a factor. If that were the case, it would be very hard to envision Dickey coming to Seattle.

Then again, Dickey is familiar with the Mariners organization after spending a season with them back in 2008. Perhaps Dickey misses the fresh ocean air and abundance of coffee houses, and would be interested in spending another year in the Pacific Northwest?

I mean, what could be better than riding off into the retirement sunset after having helped lead the Mariners to their first playoff appearance since 2001?

Sounds like it could be a pretty ideal situation for not only Dickey, but the Mariners as well.

Seattle Mariners 2016 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Nearly a year after being pegged by most MLB experts as strong World Series contenders, the Mariners find themselves regrouping after a disappointing 76-86 season that resulted in the dismissal of General Manager, Jack Zduriencik.  To right the ship, President & Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mather turned the reigns over to ex-Los Angeles Angels GM, Jerry Dipoto, hoping his expertise in analytics and scouting will accomplish what Zduriencik was unable to do after seven (mostly) forgettable seasons: propel the Mariners into the post season.

Dipoto’s first step toward the playoffs was to revamp his coaching staff. Dipoto tapped Scott Servais to replace Lloyd McClendon as manager.  Dipoto then added Tim Bogar to serve as bench coach, Mel Stottlemyer Jr. as pitching coach, Manny Acta as third base coach, retained Edgar Martinez as hitting coach, and retained Chris Woodward as first base coach (Woodward has since turned down the offer in order to find a coaching position closer to his Florida home.)

Entering the offseason, Dipoto has made clear his priorities: more depth in his starting pitching, a stronger bullpen, more athletic defenders better suited to the dimensions of Safeco Field, and a better ability by hitters to get on base.  In other words, a roster completely opposite than what was previously put together under Zduriencik.

Of course, that won’t be an easy task as the Mariners are short on starting pitching, and possess an over-abundance of athletically-challenged, non-versatile, and strike-out prone position players better suited to the tidy confines of a Fenway Park rather than spacious Safeco Field.  To make matters worse, the minors fail to offer much in the way of MLB-ready pitching and position players who fit the Dipoto mold.  And with a to-do list that includes finding help at catcher, first base, all three outfield positions, a couple starting pitchers, and bullpen reinforcements, it’s no exaggeration to say Dipoto has his work cut out for him.

Which is most likely why Dipoto got an early jump to the offseason already by dealing shortstop Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for starting pitcher Nathan Karns, reliever C.J. Riefenhauser & minor league centerfielder, Boog Powell.  True to his vision, Dipoto’s first move as the Mariners GM saw him trade away a slow footed first baseman, a shortstop with glaring defensive shortcomings, and an inconsistent right handed reliever.  In return, the Mariners received a mid-rotation arm who immediately plugs into the starting rotation, left handed depth for the bullpen, and an athletic MLB-ready outfielder who can flash the leather and get on base.

Moving forward, Dipoto has much more work to do.  But as we previously wrote about, the right type of players are available in order to lift the Mariners into the playoffs.   Dipoto prefers acquiring players via trade rather than the free agent market.  But Dipoto simply does not have enough tradeable pieces to fix the Mariners through trade only.  To upgrade, Dipoto will have to dip into the free agent market.  Luckily, with a projected payroll of $130M (or more) for the 2016 season, Dipoto should have the necessary flexibility to acquire the resources he needs.

Without further ado…

  • Resign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a three year, $33M contract.
  • Resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year, $1M contract
  • Trade SP Roenis Elias, RP Tom Wilhelmsen, and 3B/OF Patrick Kivlehan to the New York Yankees for CF Brett Gardner.
  • Trade 1B Mark Trumbo to the Baltimore Orioles for RP Brian Matusz.
  • Sign RP Tyler Clippard to a three year, $18M contract
  • Sign OF Nori Aoki to a two year, $15M contract
  • Sign 1B Steve Pearce to a two year, $12M contract.
  • Sign C Chris Iannetta to a one year, $5M contract with an option year.
  • Sign RP Mark Lowe to a one year, $800K contract.

The Lineup

Position Players

  1. Brett Gardner, CF
  2. Nori Aoki, LF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Seth Smith, RF
  7. Steve Pearce, 1B
  8. Ketel Marte, SS
  9. Chris Iannetta, C

Bench

  1. Franklin Gutierrez, OF
  2. Chris Taylor, INF
  3. Jesus Sucre, C
  4. Jesus Montero, INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Taijuan Walker
  5. Nate Karns

Bullpen

  1. Tony Zych
  2. Mayckol Guaipe
  3. Mark Lowe
  4. Brian Matusz (L)
  5. Charlie Furbush (L)
  6. Carson Smith
  7. Tyler Clippard

Analysis

Here, Dipoto makes a series of moves to address his desire of making the Mariners a much deeper team both in starting pitching and athletic defenders who can get on base.  Last season the Mariners finished 11th in the American League in on-base percentage (OBP) and tallied the second highest strikeout totals.  The Mariners also produced the third worst ultimate zone rating (UZR ) in the American League with a -29.6. Worse, the Mariners finished dead last in defensive runs saved (DRS) with -60, while the next closest team was the White Sox with -39.

Dipoto has stated his first order of business is to resign Iwakuma for the rotation.  For the past three seasons, Iwakuma has teamed with Felix Hernandez to form one of the best pitching duos in the American League.  Iwakuma missed roughly two months last year due to a strained lat muscle, but dominated hitters after he returned by posting a 9-4 record in 17 starts, a 3.10 era, a .230 BA against, with 100 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 113.1 innings pitched.  Yes, Iwakuma will turn 35 in 2016, but even if he starts to decline from his former ace-like self, he will still serve as a valuable middle of the rotation arm.

After resigning Iwakuma, Dipoto must turn his attention to two major areas of need: center field and catcher.

By acquiring Gardner, Dipoto not only finds a capable center fielder, but someone who can leadoff and allow rookie Ketel Marte to move down in the batting order.  Last season, Gardner produced a .259/.343/.399 including a .291/.373/.462 up through the end of July.  However, Gardner slumped badly the final two months of the season, producing a combined .203/.288/.290 in August and September that tempered what had been one of the best offensive outputs of his career.  Defensively, Gardner spent most of 2015 in left field where he posted a -0.9 UZR and +1 DRS.  No longer the player he was back in 2008 and 2009, Gardner still has plenty of value (2.6 WAR last year) and a move back to his natural center field position may result in numbers closer to those of his last stint as an everyday center fielder (2013) where he posted a -0.5 UZR and a +6 DRS.  The Yankees may not be keen on trading away that type of production, but with Gardner mirroring the same skill-set as Jacoby Ellsbury, and still owed $39.5M over the next three years, moving Gardner to acquire needed pitching and payroll relief makes sense.  Of course, dealing away Elias who is cost controlled and who has shown success at the MLB level, along with a late-inning reliever in Wilhelmsen who has dominating stuff, may be dangerous territory for the Mariners.  But the addition of Karns to the rotation and the emergence of Carson Smith as a viable set-up man allows Dipoto the ability to move some pitching.

With Mike Zunino set to spend 2016 in the minors trying to reinvent himself as a hitter, the Mariners are in need an everyday catcher.  Dipoto’s first move as GM of the Angels back in 2011 was to acquire Iannetta from the Rockies, so a reunion of the two would make sense.  A solid defensive player who works well with pitchers, Iannetta suffered through a down offensive year in 2015 where he slashed a .188/.293/.335 in 92 games.  However, the previous three seasons, Iannetta averaged a .238/.357/.386.  Odds are that Iannetta will revert back to something closer to those numbers, but even if he doesn’t, his 2015 numbers would still be a fairly large upgrade over the .159/.205/.258 the Mariners received out of catcher position last year.

If there was one area last season that killed the Mariners, it was the regression of the bullpen, specifically its inability to hold leads.  Upgrading the bullpen will be a must.  Here, the Mariners bring in Clippard to bolster their late inning relief corps.  A proven set-up man, Clippard also has success closing out games, as seen by his 32 saves for the Nationals in 2012, and 19 saves this past season for the Athletics and Mets.  Depending on how the Mariners use Carson Smith, Clippard will prove invaluable in the late innings either by bridging the gap to the closer, or as the closer himself.

With first baseman Mark Trumbo symbolizing everything Dipoto is not looking for in a player, dealing him to a team looking for power makes sense.  With first baseman Chris Davis a free agent and sure to land a contract out of the Orioles’ price range, the Mariners are able to offer Trumbo as a replacement for Davis at a fraction of the cost.   A former starter, Matusz has spent the last few years pitching out of the Orioles bullpen.  With the Mariners, Matusz would continue to serve that role while also offering the ability to move to the starting rotation if needed.

To fill the void at first base, the Mariners turn to Steve Pearce. Pearce lacks the raw power of Trumbo, but he provides more versatility due to his ability to play a corner outfield position as well as at second or third base.  In addition, Pearce doesn’t come with all the strikeouts that Trumbo does, and he costs half as much.  The downside is that Pearce struggled to a .218/.289/.422 last year (which, really, isn’t that far off from what Trumbo would give you).   The good new, however, is that Pearce’s track record shows much better, as seen by his .292/.373/.556 in 2014, and his .261/.362/.420 in 2013.

Lowe’s return to the Mariners last year resulted in one of his best seasons before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.   In 36 innings pitched for the Mariners, Lowe posted an impressive 1.00 ERA while striking out 47 batters and walking just 11.  Lowe made it known he wouldn’t mind returning to the Mariners in 2016. Dipoto places a great deal of value on strikeout and walk ratios.  With those numbers, the Mariners would be smart to bring the veteran reliever back.

Revamping the outfield will be an important ask for Dipoto.  Seth Smith returns as the regular right fielder against right handed pitching.  Gutiérrez showed last year that he can still wield a potent bat when healthy, producing a .292/.354/.620 and 15 home runs primarily against left handed pitching. Gutiérrez wants to return, and should the Mariners believe he can stay healthy for a second consecutive season, he would, once again, serve as the ideal compliment to Smith in right field.

The Mariners round out their outfield with the underrated Aoki.  While not a power hitter, all Aoki did last year was put up a solid .287/.353/.380 along with a 3.6 UZR in left field.  With Dipoto looking for defense, athleticism, and the ability to get on base, he’ll find all three with Aoki.

Conclusion

With the additions of Iwakuma, Clippard, Matusz and Lowe, the Mariners keep their starting pitching in tact while upgrading their bullpen.  Clippard would provide a closer option, thereby allowing Carson Smith to set-up in the 7th or 8th innings, and Matusz would provide added insurance for the starting rotation.  Dealing Elias and Wilhelmsen could prove risky considering the issues that took place with the starting rotation and bullpen in 2015. But the addition of Gardner in center field and Aoki in left field drastically upgrades an outfield that has been plagued defensively by the likes of Trumbo, Raul Ibanez, Logan Morrison and Nelson Cruz in years past.   While far from flashy, Iannetta and Pearce provide steady play at catcher and first base, with Gutierrez providing right handed thump against left handed pitching for below market cost.

Mariners’ Ownership Ready to Spend for Offense

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If anyone is wondering where the Mariners fell short in 2014, look no further than this.

The Seattle Mariners lost 17 games in which the other team scored two runs or less.  Of those 17 losses, the Mariners were shut out 11 times.  Of those 11 shut outs, the Mariners lost five games where the opposing team scored just once.

Those numbers should haunt GM Jack Zduriencik all off season.  They should cause Zduriencik to wake up in the middle of the night, covered in a cold sweat, wondering what could have been had he constructed a mere below average offense rather than the horrid one that took the field game in and game out.  The haunt of a “what if” had Zduriencik addressed, say, the teams need in center field rather than handing the position on a silver platter to rookie Abraham Almonte.   Or, perhaps, acquired one more productive bat to be inserted into a corner outfield position.   Maybe played a healthy Michael Saunders every day during the first part of the season rather than relegating him to fifth outfielder duties.  Or – and this one hurts the most – had Zduriencik not allowed ownership to squash the Nelson Cruz deal?

Ok, that last one probably was out of Zduriencik’s control, but you get the idea.

Ostensibly, any one of the above-mentioned could have resulted in just one more run scored, and thus one more win.  Feasibly, any one of the above-mentioned could have resulted in the Mariners first playoff appearance since 2001.

With the off season now upon us, clearly offense is the priority.  And from all accounts, this time around, Zduriencik, manager Lloyd McClendon, and team President and Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mathers all understand the importance of acquiring middle of the order run producers.

At least they say they do.

Zduriencik and McClendon are already on record stating two bats will be sought in the off season.  And Mathers is on record stating payroll will be increased.  So far, all the right things are being said by all the right people.  But how do we know this isn’t just more hot air being exhausted like in seasons past?  We don’t.

Except, consider this.

The other week I was frequenting my friend’s bar where, low and behold, Mariners’ “majority” minority owner Chris Larson happened to be taking in a few drinks.  Long story short, my buddy asked Larson straight up, “What are the Mariners going to do to address the offense?”

Reciprocating the candor of the question posed, Larson responded, “Don’t worry, ownership is prepared to bring in two big bats.”

That’s right, not one, but two big bats.

I don’t know about you, but hearing this straight from an owner’s mouth not only brought about a jolt of adrenaline and excitement for the upcoming season, but seemingly legitimized everything that’s been reported concerning the Mariners’ off season plans.

I mean, you have the general manager and manager both saying they want two bats to hit in the middle of the order.  You have the team’s President and Chief Operating Office saying the organization is going to raise payroll to accommodate the off season needs.  And now you have a majority owner saying the ownership group is prepared to spend the necessary means to carry out the Zduriencik’s off season wish list.

If my math skills are still up to par, all the players necessary to landing two big bats seem to be in-sync and on the same page.  And that bodes well heading into the off season.  Because whether two bats are acquired via free agency or trade, the Mariners will need to act quickly considering the dearth of quality hitters available in this year’s free agent class coupled with the number of teams looking to upgrade offensively.  And acting quickly during the off season has been something Zduriencik and the Mariners have not been very good at.  Rather, their modus operandi has been to proceed with caution, leisurely measuring each and every possibility to the point where when a decision is finally ready to be made, all that is left are the free agent bar flys.

If the Mariners are indeed planning on being major players in the off season, then they will be tied to such free agents as Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis, and Yasmany Tomas.  Possible trades for players like Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Starling Marte, Billy Butler or Justin Upton will also fill the rumor mill.

These are all distinct possibilities, and we will discuss these options in the days to follow.  But for now, the wheels seem to be in motion  for a consequential off season.