Tag Archives: Hisashi Iwakuma

Three Weeks Down, Mariners’ Progress Report 04/19/14

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The Seattle Mariners are nearly three weeks into the 2014 season, and what began as a promising 6-3 start that found the Mariners sitting at the top of American League West standings roughly one week ago, has quickly dissolved into a 7-9 record, fourth place in the American League West, and four games back of the division leading Oakland Athletics. The season is only 16 games young, so it’s far too early to be conclusive about anything. As we all know, the MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. But 16 games are enough to get a feeling for what’s working, and what is not.   Below is a quick look at what’s been good, what’s been bad, and what’s been downright ugly for the Mariners thus far in 2014.

The Good:

Dustin Ackley. Ackley is off to his best start since his initial call to the big leagues in 2011. Through 16 games this season, Ackley is leading the team in batting average (.291) and on-base percentage (.328), is tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and is 3rd in hits (16), slugging percentage (.455) and on-base plus slugging (.782). In addition to his hitting, Ackley has played a steady left field, reassuring management’s decision to move him from second base to the outfield.

Mike Zunino. After just 52 games in Class AAA Tacoma last season where he posted a paltry .227/.297/.478, Zunino was (surprisingly) called up by the Mariners to take over the team’s starting catching duties. While his defense and handling of the staff was solid, Zunino showed that he wasn’t ready to hit major league pitching. Over the next 52 games and 193 plate appearances, Zunino slashed a .214/.290/.329. Such a season had many thinking (including Mission Mariner) that Zunino needed more time to hone his hitting at Tacoma, and acquiring a starting catcher for 2014 should be on the to-do list. However, Zunino is proving otherwise.   Although he has drawn only one walk in 51 plate appearances, Zunino has emerged as one of the team leaders in hitting through the early season, ranking 1st for the Mariners in slugging percentage (.540), tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and 2nd in batting average (.280) and on-base plus slugging (.834).

Roenis Elias. With Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker saddled on the disabled list to begin the season, the rotation was a major concern for the Mariners. Let’s not be fooled, it still is, especially with James Paxton having now joined Iwakuma and Walker on the DL. But from the patchwork of arms assembled by GM Jack Zduriencik, Cuban rookie southpaw Elias has taken advantage of the window of opportunity granted to him by the rash of injuries and has helped keep a depleted rotation somewhat afloat. In his three starts thus far, Elias has pitched 16.2 innings with a 2.16 ERA, and a 1.020 WHIP. He’s held opposing hitters to a .196/.286/.304 and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits in any start. Elias most likely won’t be able to keep up this kind of pace, and will certainly regress closer to the mean. But he may have shown enough to keep him in the rotation once Iwakuma, Walker, and Paxton all return from injury.

Felix Hernandez. Felix is good. Really good. It’s pretty much a lifetime given, so it may be redundant and unnecessary to mention him here. But the thing is, Hernandez if off to the best early season start of his career. Through four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.741), strikeouts (39) and strikeouts per 9 innings (12.4). Hernandez is also holding opposing hitters to a .171/.209/.305 and has walked a mere three batters. As great as we all know Hernandez to be, such a start to 2014 is worth tipping our cap to.

The Bad:

The Top of the Batting Order. Finding a centerfield and a leadoff hitter were two areas of need for the Mariners entering the offseason. Somewhere along the way, Mariner management decided that rookie Abraham Almonte was the answer to fulfilling both of these wants. When that occurred exactly is difficult to pin-point. Spring training would be the logical guess, but Almonte’s play didn’t really support such a decision. Manager Lloyd McClendon praised Almonte’s speed and ability to put solid wood on the ball, but speed and making contact doesn’t account for much if the result is a failure to get on base. And all the spin in the world can’t cover the fact that Almonte failed to get on base, scuffling to a .178/.256/.301 in 23 Cactus League games. And with the start of the regular season, he hasn’t done much better, slashing a .246/.297/.377 while putting up a walk rate of 6.8% and a strikeout rate of 33.8%. Not exactly what you want in a leadoff hitter, let alone in the starting lineup. Following Almonte in the batting order is last season’s leadoff hitter, Brad Miller. Although Miller did an admirable job leading off in 2013 after being called up mid-season – slashing a .265/.318/.418 – this year has been a different story. Miller has struggled right out of the gate, putting up a .203/.247/.377 to go along with a 2.7% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

Stefen Romero: Romero probably should be in the “ugly” category, but I just can’t get myself to place him there seeing how Romero is only on the 25-man roster due to the fact that Zduriencik rolled the dice on Franklin Gutierrez staying healthy, and neglected to acquire any other viable right-handed hitting outfielders. But Zduriencik did, and Gutierrez couldn’t, and Romero – who should be marinating down at Tacoma for another season – found himself as the starting right fielder against left handed pitching. The result: a .158/.200/.211, with one extra base hit, no walks, and a 30.0% strikeout rate.  

Erasmo Ramirez: Ramirez began the season looking like he was a legitimate #2 pitcher rather than a temporary fill-in for the injured Iwakuma. In his first start, Ramirez bested the Angels by going seven innings and allowing only six hits, two earned runs, with six strikeouts and no walks. Since then, however, Ramirez lost all three of his ensuing starts. Reverting back to his old habit of not being able to locate his pitches consistently, Ramirez was abused by opposing hitters to the tune of a .383 batting average and a 1.124 OPS. Unable to go deep into games, Ramirez totaled just a mere 11 innings pitched, while allowing 18 hits, 8 walks and posting a 10.64 ERA.

The Ugly:

Logan Morrison.   Zduriencik’s acquisition of the recovering-from-knee-surgery 1B/DH Morrison was odd considering the fact that just hours before, the Mariners had just signed another recovering-from-knee-surgery(s) 1B/DH in Corey Hart. The plan seemingly was for Morrison to provide a left handed power bat off the bench to compliment the right handed power hitting Hart at DH, and the right handed power hitting outfielder that was sure to be acquired. That power hitting outfielder, as we know, was never acquired. And despite his defensive liabilities, Morrison somehow garnered the majority of innings in right field, posting a lowly .150/.227/.150, with no extra base hits, before landing back on the disabled list, this time with a right hamstring injury.

Kyle Seager. Over the last two years, Seager has been the one constant in the Mariners lineup, providing a solid bat in addition to passable defense at third base. Among the handful of young Mariner prospects rushed up to the major leagues since 2010, Seager has been the only one to make the necessary adjustments and provide consistent production at the major league level. However, so far in 2014, that has not been the case. Through the early going, Seager is slashing a .170/.302/.245, with no homeruns and just two runs batted in. However, Seager’s walk rate is up to a career high 14.3%, and his BABIP is at a career low .225, indicating that perhaps Seager’s slow start may be the result of bad luck rather than bad hitting.

Lloyd McClendon. As former Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox used to say, you have to play the cards you’re dealt. And that’s exactly what McClendon has been doing. Except, he has been playing the wrong cards. For whatever inexplicable reason, McClendon relegated Michael Saunders to the bench as the fourth outfielder, and gave Morrison the starting right fielder’s job. With Saunders arguably the better hitter, defender, and base runner, the decision to take at-bats away from Saunders in favor of the slow footed and defensively challenged Morrison is, for lack of a better word, incomprehensible. As if that wasn’t enough, McClendon’s continuous use of the struggling Almonte and Miller at the top of the batting order has been just as puzzling. As noted above, Almonte and Miller are producing respective on-base percentages of .297 and .247. And after three weeks of play, their continued inability to get on base leaves little reasonable argument as to why one, or both, shouldn’t be dropped lower in the batting order. Meanwhile, Ackley has been one of the Mariners’ top hitters, yet continues to find himself buried at the bottom of the order.  If that isn’t enough, we could address a handful of questionable non-pitching moves made by McClendon as well. But, as they say, enough is enough, and we think enough has already been said.

 

Injuries May Have Seattle Mariners Rethinking Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana

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With pitchers and catchers reporting to Peoria, the Nelson Cruz “will he or won’t he be a Mariner” saga still has yet to reach a conclusion.  Rumors continue to swirl around the blogosphere that it’s only a matter of time before Cruz will be donning Mariner blue.  Recent reports indicate that a deal between the Mariners and Cruz is close, with only a difference in contract years standing in the way of a completed deal.  The Mariners seemingly do not want to go more than two guaranteed years, with a third vesting year being a possibility.  Cruz – initially looking for a five year deal at the beginning of the offseason – purportedly is looking for three or more guaranteed years.

The discourse over a possible Cruz acquisition continues to be one of heavy debate.  And the debate is noteworthy.  On one hand, Cruz represents that right-handed power hitting outfield bat the Mariners covet (career .823 OPS, 32 hr/season average). Not only would he help balance out a predominantly left-handed hitting lineup but would slot in nicely behind Robinson Cano and Corey Hart providing the Mariners with a potentially lethal middle of the order batting lineup.  On the other hand, Cruz brings with him some fairly heavy concerns, namely his questionable hitting outside of hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark, (a career road OPS of .734, compared to a career .912 OPS at home), his 50 game suspension in connection to the Biogenesis scandal, and his defensive regression in the outfield (-14.1 UZR in 3055.3 innings the past three seasons).

Both sides of the Cruz examination bring merit to the sign/don’t sign Cruz dialogue.  There’s no arguing that Cruz would be a risky signing for all the reasons mentioned above.  But at the same time, concerns over his career OPS away from Rangers Ballpark may be overblown, as his road OPS+ indicates above average production in three of the past five seasons.  Still, it’s a gamble that GM Jack Zduriencik has to make, and one he appears willing to roll the dice on if the number of years falls to his favor, thereby minimizing the long-term risk while maximizing the possible short-term benefits.

However, by waiting so long to address their outfield needs, the Mariners now find themselves – barring a trade – with really one of two options; sign Cruz, or go with what’s in-house.  And outside of prospect Abraham Almonte, there isn’t a ton of viable outfield options that are mlb ready within the Mariners organization.

So now, at this juncture, it’s Cruz or nothing.  It’s shopping for a tree on Christmas Eve, with Cruz akin to the best of the remaining mangled up and dried out Douglas Firs that no one really wants. Despite seriously questioning whether the tree would last through the New Year, you need something.  And you know coming home empty handed would most likely end up being more problematic than coming home with something.

Complicating the decision, however, is the recent rash of injuries to players expected to play a prominent role for the Mariners during the upcoming season.

Yesterday, Mariners officials announced that starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will miss 4-6 weeks with a strained tendon in his middle finger of his pitching hand.  Having your No. 2 pitcher sidelined with injury is never welcomed news.  But for a pitching staff trying to find viable arms to compete for the last three pitching spots in the rotation, losing Iwakuma couldn’t have come at a worse time. This setback may now force Zduriencik to reassess how he wants to allocate the team’s remaining offseason funds, opting to abandon his pursuit of Cruz in favor of acquiring one of the remaining top free agent pitchers in Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Mariners also announced today that outfielder Franklin Gutierrez will miss the 2014 season due to a relapse of the gastrointestinal issues that sidelined him for most of last season.  Although Gutierrez was looked upon as only a reserve outfielder, he was one of the few right handed hitters the team had, and was a potential platoon partner for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders, Logan Morrison, and/or Dustin Ackley, all of whom figure to be in the mix for at least two of the starting outfield jobs.  Gutierrez’s absence ostensibly increases the need to add another right handed hitting outfielder.  Cruz would fill that need, and the Mariners may now feel the need to compromise their previous position and give Cruz the three plus guaranteed years he’s looking for.

The Mariners now find themselves in a pickle of a situation.  And it’s one that the Mariners could have avoided had they been more proactive in free agency when affordable free agents outfielders such as Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, David Murphy and Chris Young, as well as starting pitchers Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir were all readily available for the signing.

Where the Mariners go from here is anyone’s guess.  But one thing is for sure; the Mariners will have to do something.  Heading into the season with a starting outfield of Morrison, Ackley and Saunders, with rookie Almonte serving as the fourth outfielder, and a starting rotation of Felix Hernandez followed by four from a selection of Scott Baker, Randy Wolf, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Hector Noesi, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, and Zach Minor is simply – to put it kindly – underperformance waiting to happen.

What’s Next for the Seattle Mariners?

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It’s been five weeks since the Mariners went on an acquisition binge by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and trading for Logan Morrison all within a span of five days.  But since that bender, all has gone relatively silent from GM Jack Zduriencik, raising question as to whether the Mariners have exhausted their available offseason funds to make further significant moves, or are simply waiting for their next opportunity to strike?  The question looms large, as the Mariners – despite adding Cano, Hart and Morrison – find themselves still needing to address several weak points in their lineup.

The Mariners entered the offseason primarily in want of an everyday center fielder, a designated hitter, a backup catcher, and a #3 pitcher for the rotation.  Ideally, they also sought an everyday power hitting corner outfielder, and help in the bullpen.  Depending on how Hart and Morrison are used, the designated hitter position could be filled.  The Mariners reportedly signed veteran catcher John Buck to a one year deal to be the backup to Mike Zunino.  But despite these moves, the Mariners still find themselves with a fairly large to-do list.

A few big name free agents still remain on the market who could help the Mariners in 2014.   Designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, right fielder Nelson Cruz, starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka, and relief pitchers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are all available, would fill needs, but each would come at a fairly significant price.   If the Mariners truly are strapped for cash, and with a mostly depleted free agent market limiting their options, the Mariners will presumably have to rely on trades if they want to further upgrade their lineup.

Let’s take a look at where the Mariners stand in regard to their remaining areas of concern.

Centerfield:  Rumor is that Zduriencik and company are looking to Michael Saunders to be their everyday center fielder.  Back in 2011, Saunders appeared to be on his way to establishing himself as an above average defensive center fielder, putting up a 3.2 UZR in 44 games.  But since then, his defense has regressed as a starter.  In 2012, Saunders’ UZR as a center fielder fell to -3.7.   Last year it fell even further, to -9.6.   Not exactly what you want in a center fielder.  Perhaps the Mariners believe Saunders will rebound.  That certainly could happen. But it’s difficult to imagine any ball club, aware of such a downward defensive trend, being comfortable heading into the season with that type of uncertainty at one of their most important defensive positions, with no real backup plan.

The Mariners did resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year deal.   But injury has now reduced the former starting center fielder to being a fourth outfielder only capable of playing three – maybe four – times a week, if lucky.   During his on-the-job training last season, Dustin Ackley showed the ability to play centerfield on a regular basis, but in his limited time there (48 games) he proved to be less than good, producing a -6.3 UZR.  Ackley should improve as he acquires more innings and becomes more comfortable roaming the outfield.  The question, however, is by how much, and how quickly?  And can the Mariners afford to gamble on Ackley developing into an adequate center fielder should that need arise?

If all else fails, Abraham Almonte is another option for the Mariners in centerfield.  In his first call-up to the bigs last season after being acquired via trade with the Yankees, Almonte showed speed and promise in limited action, producing a -1.2 UZR in 25 games.  But, like Ackley, it is unknown whether Almonte can handle the grind of playing on a regular basis.

Designated Hitter: Corey Hart would appear to be the new designated hitter, the position best suited for him.  But Zduriencik has gone on record stating the intention is for Hart to see time in right field.  Hart running around the outfield would be a precarious sight for anyone’s eyes.   Besides his less than desired defensive prowess (a career -15.0 UZR in RF), Hart sat out the entire 2013 season recovering from injuries to both knees.  Although now deemed healthy, it’s absolutely impossible to know how Hart will hold up to playing on a regular basis, which is why the Mariners signed Hart to an incentive laden contract.

If Hart does find himself in right field, the Mariners could use Logan Morrison at designated hitter.  Morrison is best suited as a designated hitter or first baseman, but, like Hart, Zduriencik has said that he, too, will see time in the outfield.  Could we see Morrison and Hart roaming the corner outfield positions at the same time?  One would hope not, but if the Mariners can have Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse starting in the outfield together, then anything is possible.

Jesus Montero, if he isn’t traded, will surely be given a chance to win a roster spot this coming season.  How big of a chance remains to be seen.  After being demoted to the minors last year, and serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, questions linger whether the catcher-now-turned-designated hitter/first baseman can find that stroke that made him one of the top all-around hitting prospects in baseball?  He’ll have to if Montero wants to find his way back onto the Mariners 25-man roster.  However, Montero’s only realistic hope of making the team is as the starting designated hitter.  With Hart, Morrison, and Smoak sure to be on the opening day roster, the Mariners do not have room for a reserve player whose utility is limited to designated hitter and first base.

Starting Pitching:  At the top of their rotation, the Mariners boast two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  Last season, Hernandez and Iwakuma combined to go 26-16 with a 2.84 ERA.  At the bottom of the rotation, the Mariners have two of baseball’s best mlb-ready pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  During their late season call-up last year, Walker and Paxton combined to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA.  The problem for the Mariners is they have nothing in between.  As it stands now, the starting rotation consists of Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top, Walker and Paxton rounding out the bottom, and under achieving holdovers Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi and Brandon Maurer fighting it out for the #3 spot. As much talent as Walker and Paxton bring to the table, Zduriencik does not want to head into the season with three-fifths of his rotation relying heavily on inexperienced and untested arms.   And with Walker and Paxton most likely being limited to somewhere between 150-170 innings each in order to protect their arms in their first full season at the big league level, the Mariners lack the pitching depth when the time comes to shut them down for the year.

The acquisition of a solid #3 pitcher would allow Walker and Paxton to comfortably fill out the last two rotation spots, with Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan and/or Noesi able to step in if either struggle or reach their innings limit.  As it stands, the Mariners have several options that they could go in to acquire that mid rotation arm.  As mentioned, the Mariners could dip into free agency and sign Garza, Santana or Jimenez (Santana and Jimenez have draft pick compensation attached to them) or enter the Tanaka sweepstakes.  Of course, bringing aboard any of those players would take a financial commitment.  David Price, whom the Mariners have been linked to quite frequently this offseason, could come via trade with the Rays, giving the Mariners one of the best rotations in baseball.  Price is due to only make $10MM this season, is under team control until 2016, but would cost the Mariners a couple of top prospects, including one of Walker or Paxton.  Others like Bronson Arroyo and Chris Capuano are available, although at this stage in their respective careers, they both are closer to being #5 starters than they are solid #3 starters.

Bullpen:  Last season, Mariners relievers posted a 4.59 ERA, good enough to finish 29th in all of baseball.  They also blew 23 save opportunities, seventh worst in all of baseball.  Those two statistics alone stand as reason enough that upgrading the bullpen for 2014 is desperately needed.  Despite solid performances from Charlie Furbush (3.74 ERA), Oliver Perez (3.73 ERA) Yoervis Medina (2.91 ERA) and Danny Farquhar (2.23 ERA, 16 saves in the second half), the rest of the relievers –  Beavan (5.28 ERA), Noesi (7.83 ERA), Tom Wilhelmsen (4.12 ERA), Lucas Luetge (4.86 ERA), Bobby LaFromboise (5.91 ERA), and Carter Capps (5.49 ERA) – all proved to be ineffective.  Adding to the need to bring in help, Capps was traded this offseason to the Rays in exchange for Morrison, Perez elected to explore free agency, and hard throwing set-up man, Stephen Pryor, is still recovering from torn lat and triceps injuries that saw him miss most of last season.  Yet, despite the abuse that was taken by Mariners relievers in 2013, Zduriencik has yet to make any improvements.  The addition of Balfour or Rodney – both capable of serving as closers – would strengthen a questionable bullpen, but there are no indications that Zduriencik is interested in investing the type of money needed to secure the services of either player. If the Mariners elect to stand pat, Zduriencik will most likely be banking on Farquhar continuing to perform in the closers role as he did in the second half of last season, that Pryor will be healthy and able to hold down the set-up role, Wilhelmsen will return to form, and one of Luetge or LaFromboise will emerge as a competent second left-handed specialist to go with Furbush.

Corner Outfielder:  The Mariners have let it be known that they would like to add a power hitting outfielder into the mix for 2014.  But if the season were to begin today, the probable starting lineup would consist of Ackley in left field, Saunders in center field and either Hart or Morrison in right field.  Assuming Hart would begin the season at designated hitter, an Ackley/Saunders/Morrison outfield doesn’t quite provide that sought after power.  The Mariners have been linked to free agent Nelson Cruz for most of the offseason, with rumors being that Cruz already turned down a five-year, $75MM contract from the Mariners. Signing Cruz would be the easiest solution towards fulfilling the power corner outfield void, but Cruz’s suspect defense and the fact he is coming off a PED suspension, makes his acquisition risky and possibly unwise.  The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is another possibility the Mariners could explore.  Like Cruz, Ethier is a middle-of-the-order bat.  But unlike Cruz, Ethier would provide solid defense in right field.  But Ethier carries with him a $15MM annual salary, in addition to the fact the Mariners would probably have to give up a top prospect in return.  Both of those factors could make a trade of this kind unlikely for Zduriencik.  All things considered, the most plausible acquisition (not necessarily the best, mind you) would be the Mariners continuing to wait out the Morales market, and then signing him to a “qualifying offer-reduced” two or three-year deal at around $10MM per year to be the designated hitter, and then use the power hitting Hart as the regular right fielder.  Of course, as stated earlier, Hart running around the outfield on two bad knees is just a season-ending injury waiting to happen.

Hisashi Iwakuma and the Cy Young Award

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After a season like the one the Mariners just completed, I often feel like a part of me has been ripped from my core, tarred and feathered, and then thrown over a telephone wire for all to see.  Because at the beginning of every season, despite knowing better, I will lock away rational thought and say to anyone who will listen, “this is the year the Mariners could make some noise!”  And because I never learn my lesson, today after a 91 loss campaign, all I’m left with is the annual walk-of-shame where I offer up a “my bad” to all those who dared to not see the Mariners playing in October.

But in the midst of this shame, there comes a sliver of light in the form of post-season awards.  Because no matter how awful one’s team played, there is always the chance that someone will rise above the fog of ineptitude and actually perform their god-given talent better than anyone else.  And while it doesn’t change the past or necessarily offer hope for the future, it does something much more important.  It recoups a bit of lost dignity. It resurrects buried pride, even if for just a moment.

And that’s big.  It’s huge.

Because the next time you’re at a party, and your friends are giving you grief over Henry Blanco, or Aaron Harang, or any of the numerous choices the Mariners have to offer as examples of how to achieve 91 losses, you can hold your head high, stick out your chest, and utter the words Hisashi Iwakuma.  Because by doing so, I can almost guarantee you the room will suddenly go silent, your friends will take a step back, and that beautiful blonde you’ve been eyeing from across the room will finally take notice.

In a season full of disappointment, Kuma was anything but.  He not only established himself as a bona fide ace for a team that already had one in the form of King Felix, but he also proved to be one of the best pitchers in league.  Arguably, he was the lone bright spot for the Mariners this season.  Sure, Felix also had a good season.  But Felix wasn’t quite Felix.  And Kuma, this year, was simply better.

Which brings us to the Cy Young Award.  Now, I’m under no delusions that Kuma will actually win it.  Nor do I believe he should win it.  He certainly deserves to be mentioned, but there really is no sensible argument that would support Kuma winning the award.

But over at USS Mariner, Jeff Sullivan takes a stab at trying to convince otherwise.  Before I go any further, let me just say I enjoy Sullivan’s writing and analysis on the Mariners.  Lookout Landing has always been in my radius of interesting reads.  USSM? Well, that’s a discussion for another day.  But certainly LL.

In a nutshell, Sullivan relies on RA/9 to make his case for Kuma and the Cy Young.  And specifically, he focuses much of the attention on wOBA.   Now, I love wOBA.  It’s the stat I normally turn to first when evaluating players, especially from an offensive standpoint.  And it certainly is an important stat when evaluating pitching.  So I understand why Sullivan chose to go with it.

Sullivan assures us that there is an argument to be made for Kuma winning the Cy Young based on RA/9 and wOBA.  And I don’t necessarily doubt that.  The problem, though, is that an argument can be made for just about anything.  Just ask my 10-year-old daughter.  She does a fantastic job of making arguments…in regard to just about everything.  This is not to say Sullivan is on equal footing as my daughter, but, more to the point, just because an argument can be made, doesn’t really mean there is an actual argument to be made.

Sullivan’s position is that preventing runners from scoring is a pitcher’s most important job.  And a pitcher does that by preventing batters from getting on base, especially when runners are already occupying the base paths.

And clearly Kuma excelled in this category in 2013.  As Sullivan points out, Kuma’s RA/9 was a league best 2.83, buoyed by a wOBA with runners on base of .248.  And if RA/9 and wOBA were the sole criteria to be used in judging the Cy Young Award, then Kuma should win it.  By a landslide.

And this is where Sullivan goes a bit astray – by relying solely on RA/9 and, more narrowly, wOBA with runners on base, to make his case.

Now, if you are familiar with the guys over at USSM, they like to pride themselves of being objective via their focus on advanced metrics.  Try and infuse debate that isn’t premised in advanced metrics?  It’s a sure way to get mocked and laughed at.

Or banned.

Don’t believe me?  Just go over there and argue for something like, say, lineup protection. Or clutch hitting.  Or the importance of wins by a pitcher.

You’ll become enemy #1 faster than Pat Gillick can put together a playoff caliber MLB roster.

Which is why I’m surprised at how Sullivan chose to approach his position.  Because unless my liberal studies degree has failed me, I’m pretty sure looking at just one – or even two – statistical measures is anything but objective analysis.  Especially when it comes to an award given to the best overall pitcher in each league.  And I say best overall pitcher because the award should be based on multiple factors, not just one, regardless of how important you believe that one factor is.

If we look at Kuma’s wOBA with the bases empty, he falls to 10th in the league at .287.  Not that 10th in the league is horrible, but it’s also not stellar.  Clearly Kuma’s elevated wOBA with the bases empty is attributed to his serving up 19 home runs – 7th most in the league (also, not stellar).  But Kuma also gave up 124 hits in 139.2 innings pitched.  If we look at, say, Max Scherzer – who ranked 1st in wOBA with the bases empty, he gave up 19 fewer hits while pitching only one less inning.

Broaden the voting criteria a little bit and Kuma ranks 5th in OPS against (not bad), 9th in Quality Starts Percentage (uh oh), 11th in SLG against (yikes), and 12th in WAR (ouch).

Still think Kuma should win the Cy?

Scherzer led the league in WHIP, OBP against, OPS against, and WAR, while finishing 2nd in Quality Starts Percentage, BA against, and SLG against.

Which isn’t to say Scherzer should win the Cy.  But, rather, the more you add to the equation, the less Kuma looks like a Cy Young Award winner, even with his league leading RA/9.

So, with the whole wOBA discussion, perhaps it’s just best to say that Kuma excelled at cleaning up his own mess.  Which is still fantastic.  Just maybe not ideal.  And probably not enough to try to convince anyone that Kuma should win the Cy Young.

Because, personally, one walk-of-shame this season is enough.