Tag Archives: Jack Zduriencik

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.

It’s Time for the Mariners to End the Almonte Experiment

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Last Wednesday, the Mariners finally ended their eight game losing streak by defeating the Houston Astros 5-3 on a dramatic bottom of the ninth inning 3-run homerun by Kyle Seager. The win prevented the free falling Mariners from being swept at home by the worst team in baseball, and sent the reported 13,739 fans in attendance home with a bit of long forgotten joy.

But lost in all the excitement of the Mariners’ victory and Seager’s heroics, was the continuation of another streak that has become an impossible-to-ignore predicament.  At least to anyone not named Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, that is.

Last night saw an all too familiar performance this season – a box score line of 0 for 4, two strikeouts, and no walks by Abraham Almonte. The two strikeouts marked the 11th time in 21 games that Almonte has struck out multiple times in a game, and added to his league leading 33 strikeouts this season, which are nearly double of what he totaled last season after his first 21 games.  And if the strikeouts weren’t bad enough, Almonte is now slashing a .213/.255/.326 with an OPS+ of 68. His walk rate has dropped to 5.3%, while his strikeout rate of 35.1% ranks fourth worst in all of baseball.   In the series against Houston alone – against some fairly mediocre pitching – Almonte went 2 for 12 with six strikeouts and no walks.

To be fair, Almonte’s struggles shouldn’t be unexpected. Up until last year, Almonte was a fringe prospect whose career minor league numbers were average at best. After being acquired from the Yankee’s in exchange for reliever Shawn Kelley, Almonte caught fire in the Pacific Coast League, slashing a .314/.403/.491 in 94 games. That would result in a late season call-up with the Mariners where he produced a respectable .264/.313/.403 in 25 games.   Such a performance was enough to lead many to believe Almonte could possibly vie for a backup outfielder role with the Mariners in 2014. But in 23 Cactus League games, Almonte struggled to a .178/.256/.301 to go with some shaky defense.   It was the kind of performance that would normally result in a reassignment to minor league camp.  But, somewhere within the mist of Spring Training underachievement, Zduriencik and McClendon decided Almonte would be the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. A surprising decision, to say the least, considering the fact that returning center fielder, Michael Saunders, who overcame an early season injury in 2013 to post a .790 OPS in the second half, continued his hitting with a .296/.375/.407 in 22 Cactus League games.

And while Michael Saunders has been relegated to the bench this season in favor of Logan Morrison, Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and presumably the recently promoted Cole Gillespie, the struggling and ineffective Almonte continues to get the everyday call in centerfield and as the leadoff hitter.

Despite his offensive malaise, Almonte’s play in centerfield has been passable, which perhaps explains his prolonged tenure in the starting lineup. Despite committing three fielding errors and some precarious routes taken on fly balls, Almonte’s defensive metrics – albeit a limited sample size – come in at average to above average with a 3.9 UZR in 184.2 innings. This would certainly account for why his fWAR is at 0.3 and not below replacement level. But for a player who is contributing nothing offensively, Almonte should be putting up gold glove caliber defense in centerfield – or around a 15.0 UZR – in order to justify his continued use as a poor hitting everyday player.

For comparison, Juan Lagares put up an astounding 21.5 UZR for the Mets last season. But at the plate, he produced only a .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for center fielders.   As brilliant as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcomings had the Mets, and baseball pundits alike, questioning whether he was anything more than a serviceable fourth outfielder.

So if a 21.5 UZR isnt enough to quell questions over a .242/.281/.352, what are we to think about a 3.9 UZR and a  .213/.255/.326?

All this isn’t to say that Almonte cannot become an average to above average everyday player. He probably will never be a gold glove caliber center fielder, and right about now, a .242/.281/.352 from him seems like it would be considered nothing less than a triumph. The Mariners would be happy to get above average defense and average hitting out of Almonte, and one day that may be the case. But right now, Almonte is what he is, and that’s an average defender and poor hitter. And that just isn’t good enough to justify consistent playing time, especially when the better all-around player in Saunders is available on the bench.

It’s time for the Mariners to do the right thing and end the Almonte experiment in center field and at leadoff.

 

Three Weeks Down, Mariners’ Progress Report 04/19/14

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The Seattle Mariners are nearly three weeks into the 2014 season, and what began as a promising 6-3 start that found the Mariners sitting at the top of American League West standings roughly one week ago, has quickly dissolved into a 7-9 record, fourth place in the American League West, and four games back of the division leading Oakland Athletics. The season is only 16 games young, so it’s far too early to be conclusive about anything. As we all know, the MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. But 16 games are enough to get a feeling for what’s working, and what is not.   Below is a quick look at what’s been good, what’s been bad, and what’s been downright ugly for the Mariners thus far in 2014.

The Good:

Dustin Ackley. Ackley is off to his best start since his initial call to the big leagues in 2011. Through 16 games this season, Ackley is leading the team in batting average (.291) and on-base percentage (.328), is tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and is 3rd in hits (16), slugging percentage (.455) and on-base plus slugging (.782). In addition to his hitting, Ackley has played a steady left field, reassuring management’s decision to move him from second base to the outfield.

Mike Zunino. After just 52 games in Class AAA Tacoma last season where he posted a paltry .227/.297/.478, Zunino was (surprisingly) called up by the Mariners to take over the team’s starting catching duties. While his defense and handling of the staff was solid, Zunino showed that he wasn’t ready to hit major league pitching. Over the next 52 games and 193 plate appearances, Zunino slashed a .214/.290/.329. Such a season had many thinking (including Mission Mariner) that Zunino needed more time to hone his hitting at Tacoma, and acquiring a starting catcher for 2014 should be on the to-do list. However, Zunino is proving otherwise.   Although he has drawn only one walk in 51 plate appearances, Zunino has emerged as one of the team leaders in hitting through the early season, ranking 1st for the Mariners in slugging percentage (.540), tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and 2nd in batting average (.280) and on-base plus slugging (.834).

Roenis Elias. With Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker saddled on the disabled list to begin the season, the rotation was a major concern for the Mariners. Let’s not be fooled, it still is, especially with James Paxton having now joined Iwakuma and Walker on the DL. But from the patchwork of arms assembled by GM Jack Zduriencik, Cuban rookie southpaw Elias has taken advantage of the window of opportunity granted to him by the rash of injuries and has helped keep a depleted rotation somewhat afloat. In his three starts thus far, Elias has pitched 16.2 innings with a 2.16 ERA, and a 1.020 WHIP. He’s held opposing hitters to a .196/.286/.304 and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits in any start. Elias most likely won’t be able to keep up this kind of pace, and will certainly regress closer to the mean. But he may have shown enough to keep him in the rotation once Iwakuma, Walker, and Paxton all return from injury.

Felix Hernandez. Felix is good. Really good. It’s pretty much a lifetime given, so it may be redundant and unnecessary to mention him here. But the thing is, Hernandez if off to the best early season start of his career. Through four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.741), strikeouts (39) and strikeouts per 9 innings (12.4). Hernandez is also holding opposing hitters to a .171/.209/.305 and has walked a mere three batters. As great as we all know Hernandez to be, such a start to 2014 is worth tipping our cap to.

The Bad:

The Top of the Batting Order. Finding a centerfield and a leadoff hitter were two areas of need for the Mariners entering the offseason. Somewhere along the way, Mariner management decided that rookie Abraham Almonte was the answer to fulfilling both of these wants. When that occurred exactly is difficult to pin-point. Spring training would be the logical guess, but Almonte’s play didn’t really support such a decision. Manager Lloyd McClendon praised Almonte’s speed and ability to put solid wood on the ball, but speed and making contact doesn’t account for much if the result is a failure to get on base. And all the spin in the world can’t cover the fact that Almonte failed to get on base, scuffling to a .178/.256/.301 in 23 Cactus League games. And with the start of the regular season, he hasn’t done much better, slashing a .246/.297/.377 while putting up a walk rate of 6.8% and a strikeout rate of 33.8%. Not exactly what you want in a leadoff hitter, let alone in the starting lineup. Following Almonte in the batting order is last season’s leadoff hitter, Brad Miller. Although Miller did an admirable job leading off in 2013 after being called up mid-season – slashing a .265/.318/.418 – this year has been a different story. Miller has struggled right out of the gate, putting up a .203/.247/.377 to go along with a 2.7% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

Stefen Romero: Romero probably should be in the “ugly” category, but I just can’t get myself to place him there seeing how Romero is only on the 25-man roster due to the fact that Zduriencik rolled the dice on Franklin Gutierrez staying healthy, and neglected to acquire any other viable right-handed hitting outfielders. But Zduriencik did, and Gutierrez couldn’t, and Romero – who should be marinating down at Tacoma for another season – found himself as the starting right fielder against left handed pitching. The result: a .158/.200/.211, with one extra base hit, no walks, and a 30.0% strikeout rate.  

Erasmo Ramirez: Ramirez began the season looking like he was a legitimate #2 pitcher rather than a temporary fill-in for the injured Iwakuma. In his first start, Ramirez bested the Angels by going seven innings and allowing only six hits, two earned runs, with six strikeouts and no walks. Since then, however, Ramirez lost all three of his ensuing starts. Reverting back to his old habit of not being able to locate his pitches consistently, Ramirez was abused by opposing hitters to the tune of a .383 batting average and a 1.124 OPS. Unable to go deep into games, Ramirez totaled just a mere 11 innings pitched, while allowing 18 hits, 8 walks and posting a 10.64 ERA.

The Ugly:

Logan Morrison.   Zduriencik’s acquisition of the recovering-from-knee-surgery 1B/DH Morrison was odd considering the fact that just hours before, the Mariners had just signed another recovering-from-knee-surgery(s) 1B/DH in Corey Hart. The plan seemingly was for Morrison to provide a left handed power bat off the bench to compliment the right handed power hitting Hart at DH, and the right handed power hitting outfielder that was sure to be acquired. That power hitting outfielder, as we know, was never acquired. And despite his defensive liabilities, Morrison somehow garnered the majority of innings in right field, posting a lowly .150/.227/.150, with no extra base hits, before landing back on the disabled list, this time with a right hamstring injury.

Kyle Seager. Over the last two years, Seager has been the one constant in the Mariners lineup, providing a solid bat in addition to passable defense at third base. Among the handful of young Mariner prospects rushed up to the major leagues since 2010, Seager has been the only one to make the necessary adjustments and provide consistent production at the major league level. However, so far in 2014, that has not been the case. Through the early going, Seager is slashing a .170/.302/.245, with no homeruns and just two runs batted in. However, Seager’s walk rate is up to a career high 14.3%, and his BABIP is at a career low .225, indicating that perhaps Seager’s slow start may be the result of bad luck rather than bad hitting.

Lloyd McClendon. As former Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox used to say, you have to play the cards you’re dealt. And that’s exactly what McClendon has been doing. Except, he has been playing the wrong cards. For whatever inexplicable reason, McClendon relegated Michael Saunders to the bench as the fourth outfielder, and gave Morrison the starting right fielder’s job. With Saunders arguably the better hitter, defender, and base runner, the decision to take at-bats away from Saunders in favor of the slow footed and defensively challenged Morrison is, for lack of a better word, incomprehensible. As if that wasn’t enough, McClendon’s continuous use of the struggling Almonte and Miller at the top of the batting order has been just as puzzling. As noted above, Almonte and Miller are producing respective on-base percentages of .297 and .247. And after three weeks of play, their continued inability to get on base leaves little reasonable argument as to why one, or both, shouldn’t be dropped lower in the batting order. Meanwhile, Ackley has been one of the Mariners’ top hitters, yet continues to find himself buried at the bottom of the order.  If that isn’t enough, we could address a handful of questionable non-pitching moves made by McClendon as well. But, as they say, enough is enough, and we think enough has already been said.

 

For Better or Worse, Mariners Ready to Open 2014 Season

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With just hours to go before the Mariner’s 2014 season opener, I thought I would quickly post the 25-man roster with corresponding payroll. As shown below, the Mariners will begin the year with a guaranteed payroll of $89.22M. If Logan Morrison, Corey Hart, Chris Young, and Fernando Rodney all reach their respective incentives, payroll will settle at $98.22M.

Injuries to outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, and starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker created a few notable surprises to the 25-man roster. Rookie outfielder Abraham Almonte, expected to battle for a bench spot, will be the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. Fellow rookie outfielder Stefan Romero, considered a long-shot to make the club, will begin the season as the fourth outfielder. Rookie pitcher Roenis Elias will make the jump from Class AA and serve as the Mariners’ fourth starter in the rotation. Soon-to-be 35 year old veteran pitcher Chris Young, having logged only 4 2/3 innings for the Mariners this Spring after being picked up from the Washington Nationals, will anchor the rotation as the fifth starter. And underachieving starting pitcher Hector Noesi was assigned to the bullpen.

We here at Mission Mariner have more than adequately addressed our concerns with this year’s roster, so I will refrain from doing so again. But one look at the opening day lineup card and it is safe to say that the team GM Jack Zduriencik has put together is rife with questions and concerns. If the stars and planets somehow align, 82 wins might be attainable. But as things stand now, it’s doubtful the Mariners will be much improved over last season’s 71 win team. I do think the Mariners are good enough to avoid 90 losses, so a 73-89 season sounds about right.

Anyway, without further ado, your 2014 Seattle Mariners:

Position

Player

Salary

 

Position

Player

Salary

C

Zunino

$.500

SP

Hernandez

$22.587

1B

Smoak

$2.6375

SP

Ramirez

$.500

2B

Cano

$24.00

SP

Paxton

$.500

SS

Miller

$.500

SP

Elias

$.500

3B

Seager

$.500

SP

Young

$1.25/$4.725*

LF

Ackley

$1.70

CF

Almonte

$.500

RH

Medina

$.500

RF

Saunders

$2.30

RH

Noesi

$.500

DH

Morrison

$1.75/$2.125*

RH

Farquhar

$.500

RH

Wilhelmsen

$.500

Bench

Hart

$6.0/$10.65*

LH

Furbush

$.500

Bench

Buck

$1.00

LH

Beimel

$.500

Bench

Romero

$.500

CL

Rodney

$7.00/$7.50*

Bench

Bloomquist

$2.80

SP

Iwakuma

$6.50**

SP

Walker

$.500**

SP

Hultzen

$1.70^

RH

Pryor

$.500**

Total:

$44.6875/$49.7125

Total:

$44.537/$48.512

Total Payroll:

$89.2245/$98.2245

* Guaranteed salary/Salary based on reaching all performance incentives.  **Player to start season on Disabled List.  ^Player to miss season with injury.

Jack Zduriencik And His Baffling Roster Construction

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Usually during this stretch of Spring Training, optimism runs fairly high within me. As I previously wrote about, it’s around this time where I’m habitually stricken with an unchecked case of sanguinity, causing the unabated belief that that the Mariners will most certainly be playoff bound. And simply believing is never enough. Rather, the fervor becomes so prodigious it’s necessary to enlighten everyone within earshot. But as is the normal course of development, the Mariners will tail-spin out of contention, and I will then spend long hours trying to rationalize why another season failed to extend beyond September.

It’s a vicious cycle I fall prey to each year. My own form of personal purgatory. My Sisyphus, if you will.

But this year is different. This year, even after landing one of the top five hitters in all of baseball, I won’t be overcome with such delusions. This year, I’ve been reminded that I’m better than that.

The other day I was browsing through the Mariner’s blog section at the Seattle Times and came across this interesting snippet from a March 10 article regarding first baseman, Justin Smoak:

“But it’s the hitting that will define Smoak, and he knows it. You can’t be a light hitting first baseman. McClendon isn’t asking him to be Prince Fielder type, but he’d settle for Mark Grace….”

The comment was written by Times’ beat writer Ryan Divish, and was in reference to manager Lloyd McClendon’s announcement that Smoak would be his starting first baseman for the 2014 season. It wasn’t clear whether this was something derived from Divish’s own thoughts, or if he was simply paraphrasing McClendon. But considering the dearth of personal opinion found in any of Divish’s reporting, one can pretty much surmise this was born from McClendon himself.

What makes the statement interesting isn’t the fact that McClendon’s expectations for Smoak are no longer of the prototypical power hitting first baseman that GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners have touted Smoak as being since his acquisition from Texas (well, that is interesting, but a discussion for another day). Rather, its McClendon’s temperament and apparent willingness to, instead, settle for Smoak being Mark Grace.

That’s right, settle for Mark Grace.

The same Mark Grace who finished second in the rookie of the year voting in 1988, was a three time all-star, a three time gold glover, a four time MVP candidate, and one of the top hitters in all of baseball during the 1990’s, averaging a slash line of .311/.392/.462 from 1992 to 2001. Call me crazy, but I’m not sure there are many teams today that would look at that type of production as something to settle for.

Now, McClendon’s reconciliation with Smoak has to do with his willingness to trade homeruns for doubles. In fact, a lot more doubles. Forty to forty-five doubles to be exact. But seeing how Smoak’s career high in doubles is 24, as well as the fact he hit only 19 last year, jumping to 40-45 doubles in 2014 would be nothing less than a major achievement. Perhaps even a miracle.

But in the eyes of the Mariners, Grace-like production from Smoak would be settling. And it’s with this one singular verb where clairvoyance materializes, cutting through my haze of romanticism like a Felix Hernandez fastball burning through the night time air. For it’s a stark reminder that much of the Mariners’ success in 2014 teeters on hope and overcoming odds rather than meeting expectations. It’s a memorandum on the fact that although Zduriencik and the Mariners like to tout the possible, the 25-man roster is governed by the plausible.

And since 2009, the “possible” taking precedent over the “plausible” has been the modus operandi of Zduriencik’s roster construction. Whether it has been an undying faith in the progression of the youth, or relying on the rebirth of veterans two or three years past their last productive season, the assemblage of the 25-man roster has consistently been built on the backs of players expected to perform well beyond any sort of reasonableness. And nothing represents the kind of Hail-Mary hopefulness that has long defined Zduriencik’s roster formation than McClendon’s belief that Smoak can be a Grace-like .300/.390/.460, 45 doubles and 20 homerun hitter.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Such an evolution by Smoak is possible, and would pair very nicely with Robinson Cano in the middle of the batting order. And yes, it would be a huge boost for this team.

But so would Corey Hart being able to stay healthy enough to play a decent right field regularly, rookie Abraham Almonte proving to be a solid everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, and veteran pitchers Scott Baker and Randy Wolf regaining their old form and solidifying the middle of the rotation, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker out with injuries for at least the first month of the season.    And, of course, questions still remain whether a bullpen that ranked as one of the worst in 2013 can improve despite losing two of their best arms in Oliver Perez and Stephen Pryor, whether Mike Zunino can show he doesn’t warrant further time in Tacoma, whether Brad Miller can prove he has what it takes defensively to stick at shortstop, and whether Dustin Ackley can continue hitting in 2014 like he did during the second half of 2013.

All of which is possible, but, realistically speaking, not plausible. And if the Mariners hope to make any noise in a tough AL West division, they will need most of these possibilities to become realities. But with Zduriencik choosing to once again lean on untested youth and affordable free agent veterans looking to find the fountain of youth and good health, the results have been less than reassuring so far this spring.

Predictably, Hart and his knees have not shown the ability to play the outfield (or anywhere for that matter) regularly. Almonte’s defense in center field has been so-so while his bat at the top of the order has been meager, producing a .174/.237/.304.  And Baker and Wolf have both been released, leaving the Mariners with a questionable opening day rotation consisting of Hernandez, Erasmo Ramirez, rookie James Paxton, rookie Roneis Elias, and one of Blake Beavan or Hector Noesi.

However, recognizing the fragility of their pitching staff, the Mariners promptly went out today and bolstered their rotation by signing soon-to-be 35 year old veteran pitcher Chris Young who was released by the Nationals. Young is coming off shoulder surgery on his throwing arm, hasn’t pitched at the major league level since 2012, and whose last full season as a starter was in 2007 where he made 30 starts for the Padres.

Wait, did I say bolster? Scratch that.

The Mariners entered the offseason needing to address the starting pitching, the outfield and the bullpen. Outside of signing closer Fernando Rodney to replace closer Danny Farquhar, the Mariners elected to ignore all three areas, believing instead that somehow, something will transpire and provide resolution. Perhaps Zduriencik and the Mariners see something the rest of the baseball world cannot?

It’s possible.

Injuries May Have Seattle Mariners Rethinking Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana

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With pitchers and catchers reporting to Peoria, the Nelson Cruz “will he or won’t he be a Mariner” saga still has yet to reach a conclusion.  Rumors continue to swirl around the blogosphere that it’s only a matter of time before Cruz will be donning Mariner blue.  Recent reports indicate that a deal between the Mariners and Cruz is close, with only a difference in contract years standing in the way of a completed deal.  The Mariners seemingly do not want to go more than two guaranteed years, with a third vesting year being a possibility.  Cruz – initially looking for a five year deal at the beginning of the offseason – purportedly is looking for three or more guaranteed years.

The discourse over a possible Cruz acquisition continues to be one of heavy debate.  And the debate is noteworthy.  On one hand, Cruz represents that right-handed power hitting outfield bat the Mariners covet (career .823 OPS, 32 hr/season average). Not only would he help balance out a predominantly left-handed hitting lineup but would slot in nicely behind Robinson Cano and Corey Hart providing the Mariners with a potentially lethal middle of the order batting lineup.  On the other hand, Cruz brings with him some fairly heavy concerns, namely his questionable hitting outside of hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark, (a career road OPS of .734, compared to a career .912 OPS at home), his 50 game suspension in connection to the Biogenesis scandal, and his defensive regression in the outfield (-14.1 UZR in 3055.3 innings the past three seasons).

Both sides of the Cruz examination bring merit to the sign/don’t sign Cruz dialogue.  There’s no arguing that Cruz would be a risky signing for all the reasons mentioned above.  But at the same time, concerns over his career OPS away from Rangers Ballpark may be overblown, as his road OPS+ indicates above average production in three of the past five seasons.  Still, it’s a gamble that GM Jack Zduriencik has to make, and one he appears willing to roll the dice on if the number of years falls to his favor, thereby minimizing the long-term risk while maximizing the possible short-term benefits.

However, by waiting so long to address their outfield needs, the Mariners now find themselves – barring a trade – with really one of two options; sign Cruz, or go with what’s in-house.  And outside of prospect Abraham Almonte, there isn’t a ton of viable outfield options that are mlb ready within the Mariners organization.

So now, at this juncture, it’s Cruz or nothing.  It’s shopping for a tree on Christmas Eve, with Cruz akin to the best of the remaining mangled up and dried out Douglas Firs that no one really wants. Despite seriously questioning whether the tree would last through the New Year, you need something.  And you know coming home empty handed would most likely end up being more problematic than coming home with something.

Complicating the decision, however, is the recent rash of injuries to players expected to play a prominent role for the Mariners during the upcoming season.

Yesterday, Mariners officials announced that starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will miss 4-6 weeks with a strained tendon in his middle finger of his pitching hand.  Having your No. 2 pitcher sidelined with injury is never welcomed news.  But for a pitching staff trying to find viable arms to compete for the last three pitching spots in the rotation, losing Iwakuma couldn’t have come at a worse time. This setback may now force Zduriencik to reassess how he wants to allocate the team’s remaining offseason funds, opting to abandon his pursuit of Cruz in favor of acquiring one of the remaining top free agent pitchers in Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Mariners also announced today that outfielder Franklin Gutierrez will miss the 2014 season due to a relapse of the gastrointestinal issues that sidelined him for most of last season.  Although Gutierrez was looked upon as only a reserve outfielder, he was one of the few right handed hitters the team had, and was a potential platoon partner for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders, Logan Morrison, and/or Dustin Ackley, all of whom figure to be in the mix for at least two of the starting outfield jobs.  Gutierrez’s absence ostensibly increases the need to add another right handed hitting outfielder.  Cruz would fill that need, and the Mariners may now feel the need to compromise their previous position and give Cruz the three plus guaranteed years he’s looking for.

The Mariners now find themselves in a pickle of a situation.  And it’s one that the Mariners could have avoided had they been more proactive in free agency when affordable free agents outfielders such as Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, David Murphy and Chris Young, as well as starting pitchers Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir were all readily available for the signing.

Where the Mariners go from here is anyone’s guess.  But one thing is for sure; the Mariners will have to do something.  Heading into the season with a starting outfield of Morrison, Ackley and Saunders, with rookie Almonte serving as the fourth outfielder, and a starting rotation of Felix Hernandez followed by four from a selection of Scott Baker, Randy Wolf, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Hector Noesi, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, and Zach Minor is simply – to put it kindly – underperformance waiting to happen.

Seattle Mariners Finished Making Major Moves, Payroll Sits at $80 Million

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Last week at FanFest, Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik informed the Mariner faithful that the team is most likely finished making “major” moves this offseason, and will, instead, focus on “tweaking” the lineup that has been put together for the 2014 season.

Amongst the tweaking that needs to be done, the Mariners still seek a veteran pitcher to slot in behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma in the rotation.  As Mission Mariner previously wrote about, heading into the season with some combination of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi rounding out the final three rotation spots would be a hazardous path for the Mariners to venture.   In addition, a bullpen that ranked as one of the worst in all of baseball last season has been largely ignored, as has an outfield defense that ranked last in UZR (-58.8) and defensive runs saved (-70).

Newly promoted team President, Kevin Mather, recently reiterated that Zduriencik still has some financial flexibility left in order to make further additions to the roster.  The big question, of course, is how much financial flexibility does Zduriencik have?  Enough to land a legitimate #3 starter for the rotation such as Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana?  Or just a minimal amount, enough to tweak the rotation with recently signed low risk reclamation project, Scott Baker, to a minor league deal?

Since 2008, the Mariners have been cutting payroll by focusing on playing young, cost-controlled prospects and inexpensive veterans.  Last season, the Mariners’ front office proclaimed it was finally prepared to raise payroll, only to see team spending remain stagnant, settling at $85MM for a second straight season.  With the signing of Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240MM contract to begin this offseason, and with new revenue streams coming in from revised television deals from MLB and the Mariners own Regional Sports Network, many anticipated that 2014 would finally be the year payroll would increase to a more competitive level allowing the Mariners to acquire several high-end players.  But that seemingly will not be the case.  Unlike seasons prior, where available offseason funds were spread around to fill varying needs, this year’s plan consisted of investing most all of the funds into one player.  And with Zduriencik’s proclamation that major offseason moves are now finished, breaching the $85MM payroll mark doesn’t look to be plausible for 2014.  Rather, it appears payroll will once again fall around $85M.

Below is the Mariners’ current projected 25-man roster to begin the season with corresponding salary:

Position Player Salary   Position Player Salary
C Zunino $.500 SP Hernandez $22.587
1B Smoak $2.8/3.25* SP Iwakuma $6.5
2B Cano $24.0 SP Ramirez $.500
SS Miller $.500 SP Walker $.500
3B Seager $.500 SP Paxton $.500
LF Ackley $1.7
CF Saunders $2.3 RH Medina $.500
RF Morrison $1.7/2.5* LH Furbush $.500
DH Hart $5.0/13.0** RH Wilhelmsen $.500
LH Beimel $.500
Bench Buck $1.0 RH Pryor^ $.500
Bench Bloomquist $2.8 RH Beavan $.500
Bench Franklin $.500 CL Farquhar $.500
Bench Gutierrez $1.0/$3.0**  
SP Hultzen^^ $1.7
Total: $44.3/55.55 Total: $35.787
Total Payroll $80.087/91.337

*Projected arbitration award/ Full arbitration request award.  ** Guaranteed salary/Salary based on reaching all performance incentives.  ^Player currently recovering from injury. ^^Player to miss 2014 season with injury. 

Even with the signing of Cano, the Mariners’ current payroll based on guaranteed salary and projected arbitration awards to Smoak and Morrison comes in at $80.09MM for 2014.   If all performance incentives are met by Hart and Gutierrez, and arbitration requests are awarded in full to Smoak and Morrison, team payroll will reach $91.34MM.

With the Mariners still rumored to be interested in free agents Jimenez, Santana, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, and possible trade targets Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Colby Rasmus, and David Price, Zduriencik may still acquire a player that would have a significant impact on the field, as well as in the pocket book.  Recent rumors are that the Mariners could be ready to “turn loose,” showing renewed interest in both Rodney and Cruz. Such acquisitions would be far from merely “tweaking” the roster, so if we are to take Zduriencik at his word, such signings would seem unlikely.  But if there is one thing we know about Zduriencik, what he says he may do, and what he actually ends up doing, rarely go hand-in hand.

What’s Next for the Seattle Mariners?

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It’s been five weeks since the Mariners went on an acquisition binge by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and trading for Logan Morrison all within a span of five days.  But since that bender, all has gone relatively silent from GM Jack Zduriencik, raising question as to whether the Mariners have exhausted their available offseason funds to make further significant moves, or are simply waiting for their next opportunity to strike?  The question looms large, as the Mariners – despite adding Cano, Hart and Morrison – find themselves still needing to address several weak points in their lineup.

The Mariners entered the offseason primarily in want of an everyday center fielder, a designated hitter, a backup catcher, and a #3 pitcher for the rotation.  Ideally, they also sought an everyday power hitting corner outfielder, and help in the bullpen.  Depending on how Hart and Morrison are used, the designated hitter position could be filled.  The Mariners reportedly signed veteran catcher John Buck to a one year deal to be the backup to Mike Zunino.  But despite these moves, the Mariners still find themselves with a fairly large to-do list.

A few big name free agents still remain on the market who could help the Mariners in 2014.   Designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, right fielder Nelson Cruz, starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka, and relief pitchers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are all available, would fill needs, but each would come at a fairly significant price.   If the Mariners truly are strapped for cash, and with a mostly depleted free agent market limiting their options, the Mariners will presumably have to rely on trades if they want to further upgrade their lineup.

Let’s take a look at where the Mariners stand in regard to their remaining areas of concern.

Centerfield:  Rumor is that Zduriencik and company are looking to Michael Saunders to be their everyday center fielder.  Back in 2011, Saunders appeared to be on his way to establishing himself as an above average defensive center fielder, putting up a 3.2 UZR in 44 games.  But since then, his defense has regressed as a starter.  In 2012, Saunders’ UZR as a center fielder fell to -3.7.   Last year it fell even further, to -9.6.   Not exactly what you want in a center fielder.  Perhaps the Mariners believe Saunders will rebound.  That certainly could happen. But it’s difficult to imagine any ball club, aware of such a downward defensive trend, being comfortable heading into the season with that type of uncertainty at one of their most important defensive positions, with no real backup plan.

The Mariners did resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year deal.   But injury has now reduced the former starting center fielder to being a fourth outfielder only capable of playing three – maybe four – times a week, if lucky.   During his on-the-job training last season, Dustin Ackley showed the ability to play centerfield on a regular basis, but in his limited time there (48 games) he proved to be less than good, producing a -6.3 UZR.  Ackley should improve as he acquires more innings and becomes more comfortable roaming the outfield.  The question, however, is by how much, and how quickly?  And can the Mariners afford to gamble on Ackley developing into an adequate center fielder should that need arise?

If all else fails, Abraham Almonte is another option for the Mariners in centerfield.  In his first call-up to the bigs last season after being acquired via trade with the Yankees, Almonte showed speed and promise in limited action, producing a -1.2 UZR in 25 games.  But, like Ackley, it is unknown whether Almonte can handle the grind of playing on a regular basis.

Designated Hitter: Corey Hart would appear to be the new designated hitter, the position best suited for him.  But Zduriencik has gone on record stating the intention is for Hart to see time in right field.  Hart running around the outfield would be a precarious sight for anyone’s eyes.   Besides his less than desired defensive prowess (a career -15.0 UZR in RF), Hart sat out the entire 2013 season recovering from injuries to both knees.  Although now deemed healthy, it’s absolutely impossible to know how Hart will hold up to playing on a regular basis, which is why the Mariners signed Hart to an incentive laden contract.

If Hart does find himself in right field, the Mariners could use Logan Morrison at designated hitter.  Morrison is best suited as a designated hitter or first baseman, but, like Hart, Zduriencik has said that he, too, will see time in the outfield.  Could we see Morrison and Hart roaming the corner outfield positions at the same time?  One would hope not, but if the Mariners can have Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse starting in the outfield together, then anything is possible.

Jesus Montero, if he isn’t traded, will surely be given a chance to win a roster spot this coming season.  How big of a chance remains to be seen.  After being demoted to the minors last year, and serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, questions linger whether the catcher-now-turned-designated hitter/first baseman can find that stroke that made him one of the top all-around hitting prospects in baseball?  He’ll have to if Montero wants to find his way back onto the Mariners 25-man roster.  However, Montero’s only realistic hope of making the team is as the starting designated hitter.  With Hart, Morrison, and Smoak sure to be on the opening day roster, the Mariners do not have room for a reserve player whose utility is limited to designated hitter and first base.

Starting Pitching:  At the top of their rotation, the Mariners boast two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  Last season, Hernandez and Iwakuma combined to go 26-16 with a 2.84 ERA.  At the bottom of the rotation, the Mariners have two of baseball’s best mlb-ready pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  During their late season call-up last year, Walker and Paxton combined to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA.  The problem for the Mariners is they have nothing in between.  As it stands now, the starting rotation consists of Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top, Walker and Paxton rounding out the bottom, and under achieving holdovers Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi and Brandon Maurer fighting it out for the #3 spot. As much talent as Walker and Paxton bring to the table, Zduriencik does not want to head into the season with three-fifths of his rotation relying heavily on inexperienced and untested arms.   And with Walker and Paxton most likely being limited to somewhere between 150-170 innings each in order to protect their arms in their first full season at the big league level, the Mariners lack the pitching depth when the time comes to shut them down for the year.

The acquisition of a solid #3 pitcher would allow Walker and Paxton to comfortably fill out the last two rotation spots, with Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan and/or Noesi able to step in if either struggle or reach their innings limit.  As it stands, the Mariners have several options that they could go in to acquire that mid rotation arm.  As mentioned, the Mariners could dip into free agency and sign Garza, Santana or Jimenez (Santana and Jimenez have draft pick compensation attached to them) or enter the Tanaka sweepstakes.  Of course, bringing aboard any of those players would take a financial commitment.  David Price, whom the Mariners have been linked to quite frequently this offseason, could come via trade with the Rays, giving the Mariners one of the best rotations in baseball.  Price is due to only make $10MM this season, is under team control until 2016, but would cost the Mariners a couple of top prospects, including one of Walker or Paxton.  Others like Bronson Arroyo and Chris Capuano are available, although at this stage in their respective careers, they both are closer to being #5 starters than they are solid #3 starters.

Bullpen:  Last season, Mariners relievers posted a 4.59 ERA, good enough to finish 29th in all of baseball.  They also blew 23 save opportunities, seventh worst in all of baseball.  Those two statistics alone stand as reason enough that upgrading the bullpen for 2014 is desperately needed.  Despite solid performances from Charlie Furbush (3.74 ERA), Oliver Perez (3.73 ERA) Yoervis Medina (2.91 ERA) and Danny Farquhar (2.23 ERA, 16 saves in the second half), the rest of the relievers –  Beavan (5.28 ERA), Noesi (7.83 ERA), Tom Wilhelmsen (4.12 ERA), Lucas Luetge (4.86 ERA), Bobby LaFromboise (5.91 ERA), and Carter Capps (5.49 ERA) – all proved to be ineffective.  Adding to the need to bring in help, Capps was traded this offseason to the Rays in exchange for Morrison, Perez elected to explore free agency, and hard throwing set-up man, Stephen Pryor, is still recovering from torn lat and triceps injuries that saw him miss most of last season.  Yet, despite the abuse that was taken by Mariners relievers in 2013, Zduriencik has yet to make any improvements.  The addition of Balfour or Rodney – both capable of serving as closers – would strengthen a questionable bullpen, but there are no indications that Zduriencik is interested in investing the type of money needed to secure the services of either player. If the Mariners elect to stand pat, Zduriencik will most likely be banking on Farquhar continuing to perform in the closers role as he did in the second half of last season, that Pryor will be healthy and able to hold down the set-up role, Wilhelmsen will return to form, and one of Luetge or LaFromboise will emerge as a competent second left-handed specialist to go with Furbush.

Corner Outfielder:  The Mariners have let it be known that they would like to add a power hitting outfielder into the mix for 2014.  But if the season were to begin today, the probable starting lineup would consist of Ackley in left field, Saunders in center field and either Hart or Morrison in right field.  Assuming Hart would begin the season at designated hitter, an Ackley/Saunders/Morrison outfield doesn’t quite provide that sought after power.  The Mariners have been linked to free agent Nelson Cruz for most of the offseason, with rumors being that Cruz already turned down a five-year, $75MM contract from the Mariners. Signing Cruz would be the easiest solution towards fulfilling the power corner outfield void, but Cruz’s suspect defense and the fact he is coming off a PED suspension, makes his acquisition risky and possibly unwise.  The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is another possibility the Mariners could explore.  Like Cruz, Ethier is a middle-of-the-order bat.  But unlike Cruz, Ethier would provide solid defense in right field.  But Ethier carries with him a $15MM annual salary, in addition to the fact the Mariners would probably have to give up a top prospect in return.  Both of those factors could make a trade of this kind unlikely for Zduriencik.  All things considered, the most plausible acquisition (not necessarily the best, mind you) would be the Mariners continuing to wait out the Morales market, and then signing him to a “qualifying offer-reduced” two or three-year deal at around $10MM per year to be the designated hitter, and then use the power hitting Hart as the regular right fielder.  Of course, as stated earlier, Hart running around the outfield on two bad knees is just a season-ending injury waiting to happen.

Mariners Add Hart & Morrison, Position Themselves To Go After Carlos Gomez

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With Day 3 of the MLB Winter Meetings concluded, the Mariners added two more bats to their revamped lineup.  First, Jack Zduriencik signed Corey Hart to a guaranteed one-year, 6M contract with additional incentives that could push the deal to 13M.  Hart will take over the DH duties as well and spend time in the outfield and possibly at 1B.  Within an hour after signing Hart, reliever Carter Capps was sent packing to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Logan Morrison.  Morrison will replace Justin Smoak as the starting 1B.

Hart missed all of 2013 after having surgery on both knees, but he possesses big time power when healthy.  In 2012, he slashed a .270/.334/.507 to go along with 30 homeruns. From 2010 to 2012, Hart averaged a slash line of .279/.343/.514 and 29 homeruns.  That kind of production should slot nicely right behind newly acquired Robinson Cano, giving the Mariners two potent bats for the middle of their order.

Morrison was a highly rated prospect coming up through the Marlins organization, living up to expectations in his 2010 big league call-up by slashing a .283/.390/.447 in 62 games.  He followed that up the next season with a slightly lesser .247/.330/.468 despite hitting 23 homeruns.  The last two seasons, Morrison has been less than pedestrian, averaging a .236/.321/.387.  However, against RHP last season, Morrison put up a solid .261/.354/.423.   The Mariners could be looking to implement a platoon at 1B next season, with Morrison starting against RHP, and Hart against LHP.

While Hart and Morrison fill needs for the Mariners, their acquisitions may have also created an opportunity to land a needed centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Both Hart and Morrison were top targets for the Milwaukee Brewers who are looking to fill their need at 1B.  With both Hart and Morrison no longer available, the market for first basemen has thinned dramatically.  The Brewers’ current remaining options are trading for the Mets’ Ike Davis, or signing free agent James Loney.  However, the Mets are asking for top pitching prospect Tyler Thornburg in return for Davis, whom the Brewers are not willing to give up.  And Loney is seeking a three-year deal, also something the Brewers are not interested in providing.  To complicate matters even more, the Brewers are competing with both the Pirates and the Rays who are also looking to fill needs at 1B.

Enter the Mariners and newly available Justin Smoak.

By acquiring Hart and Morrsion, the Mariners not only added needed offense, but simultaneously positioned themselves for a possible trade with the Brewers.  But not just any trade.  Rather, a trade for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.  As we noted in our offseason lookout, Gomez is one of the games top up-and-coming players who would provide the Mariners with elite defense as well as production at the top of the batting order.  The Brewers have made no indication that they are willing to move Gomez, but the Mariners – via their acquisitions of Cano, Hart and Morrison – have created an abundance of tradeable pieces that could persuade the Brewers to think otherwise.

In return for Gomez, the Mariners could not only offer Smoak to fill the Brewers’ need at 1B, but also include any combination of Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, Jesus Montero, in addition to top pitching prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  We previously suggested a package of Walker, Smoak, Saunders, and top outfield prospect Stefen Romero.  But with the signing of Cano, the Mariners are now free to add Ackley or Franklin into the mix without creating a need in their own lineup.  Could a package centered around Walker, Smoak, and Ackley entice the Brewers to part with Gomez?  Maybe swap out Ackley for Franklin?  Perhaps offer Paxton instead of Walker, but include a few more prospects in the deal?  In any scenario, the Brewers would be receiving young cost-controlled players with upside, capable of stepping right into the starting lineup, and who would fill immediate needs.

Clearly, at this point, a possible Gomez trade is nothing more than conjecture.  But with the Brewers looking diligently to fill their need at 1B, the Mariners suddenly find themselves with a golden opportunity to make an offer to acquire that coveted center fielder and leadoff hitter, one that could find the Brewers hard pressed to pass up.

Mariners Need to Emulate Red Sox, Invest Wisely in Free Agency

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One can only imagine that while the Boston Red Sox were celebrating their 2013 World Series championship, there alone sitting in a dark corner office was Jack Zduriencik, astonished from what he was seeing transpire on the TV.

Because that night, Zduriencik had to witness a Red Sox team – one that finished 69-93 just a year ago – be crowned the best team in all of baseball for 2013.

And as second year Boston GM Ben Cherington conveyed to the world that he simply was “just happy to be along for the ride,” one can be sure at that very moment, Zduriencik’s blood pressure began to rise ever so slightly, realizing that, entering his sixth year as GM of the Seattle Mariners, he had yet to put together a team that has allowed him to feel – even for just a moment – “happy to be along for the ride.”

2013 was supposed to be that type of season for Zduriencik and the Mariners.  No, not one that would be punctuated with a World Series Championship.  But one that would see the Mariners continue to grow and reach expectations of surpassing the .500 mark and even possibly contend for a playoff spot.  The type of season that would validate the prolonged rebuilding plan that Zduriencik and Howard Lincoln have vowed was the right path to winning.

But 2013 ended up being quite the opposite.  And the Red Sox World Series championship season only provided further testimony that perhaps Zduriencik needs to re-evaluate the Mariners’ rebuild approach, and maybe take some notes from the Red Sox’s second year GM.

Unlike Zduriencik and the Mariners, Cherington utilizes a develop and contend at the same time approach by placing an importance upon both cultivating homegrown talent, and investing in quality free agents who can facilitate winning in the immediate and in the years to come .

Cherington’s belief, of course, should be nothing new to the Mariners.  It was the same method used by former GM Pat Gillick who dipped heavily into free agency while refraining from trading away top prospects.  But despite the string of 90+ win seasons and playoff appearances accomplished during the Gillick years, these days what is heard from Mariners headquarters is that developing from within, while acquiring cheap disposable stopgap free agents, is the smarter approach.   The theory being that if a low cost veteran acquisition doesn’t pan out, the team can simply cut them mid-season and eat the remaining money owed without being hamstrung by multi-year contract obligations.   Of course, if and when that happens, what truly has occurred is wasted valuable payroll, and a team struggling as a result of poor veteran acquisitions.  And as Mariner fans can attest to the past five seasons, wasted payroll and poor veteran acquisitions has summed up the Mariners and their free agent acquisitions.

What the Mariners need to remember is that if a team goes about free agency with intelligence, the cost-benefit analysis will play to the investor’s favor despite the money spent up front.

The 2013 Boston Red Sox were a prime example of this, and one way this is revealed is via team WAR.

While Zduriencik and the Mariners were busy offering up a king’s ransom for Josh Hamilton, the Red Sox went out and focused their efforts on second-tier free agents. Among those that they signed were Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and David Ross – two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher.  The foursome would fill holes in the Red Sox lineup at a cost of 34.1 million for 2013.

Now, before we go any further, there is the argument that the Mariners were unable to spend 34.1 million on free agents, which would have raised payroll upwards to 100 million.  But let’s not forget that the Mariners were prepared to drop 20 million on Hamilton.  Such a signing would have put payroll around 95 million assuming that a Hamilton acquisition would have eliminated the need to trade for Michael Morse.  As the attempted Hamilton signing illustrates, the money is there to spend.  It’s just a matter of how the Mariners choose to spend it.

After the Mariner’s all-or-nothing pursuit of Hamilton came up empty, Zduriencik – like the Red Sox – acquired two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher to fill holes for 2013. Morse, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Kelly Shoppach would end up costing half as much as the Red Sox’s four acquisitions; 16.25 million for the upcoming season.

According to Baseball-Reference, Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach wound up combining for a dismal 1.8 WAR for the Mariners in 2013. Shoppach ended up being designated for assignment mid-season, and Morse lived up to his can’t-stay-healthy reputation by spending much of the time on the disabled list before being traded to the Orioles.   Despite paying out less than half as much as Boston, Zduriencik spent a whopping 9 million per WAR produced from his veteran acquisitions.

Conversely, Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross would become central players for the Red Sox, combining for 12.1 WAR.  Despite spending over twice as much as the Mariners, Cherington not only received better production, but ended up paying a mere 2.8 million per WAR produced.

The Mariners’ investment costs may have been considerably less, but their returns were practically non-existent.  As the old saying goes, the Mariners got what they paid for.

The Mariners 2013 payroll landed somewhere in the neighborhood of 82 million and finished with a team WAR of 23.2, resulting in a 3.53 million spent per WAR produced.  If, say, the Mariners had acquired Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross instead of Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach, their payroll would have been 99 million, their team WAR would have increased to 33.5, and their per WAR expenditure would have dropped to 2.96 million.

Yes, the Mariners would have needed to spend more money, but in the end, a far better return on their investment would have been achieved.  And any successfully run business will place more importance on returns than on investment costs.

Now, a team WAR of 33.5 would not have been enough to expect a playoff berth.  Normally playoff-caliber teams produce a team WAR of 40 or more.  The average team WAR of the five American League playoff teams this year was 47.12, with Cleveland coming in at the lowest with a team WAR of 39.3.

But a team WAR or 30 or better should result in a .500 or better season.  If we look at the four teams that didn’t make the American League playoffs but who finished with an above .500 record – the Rangers, Orioles, Yankees and Royals – their average team WAR was 38.65 with the Yankees coming in with the lowest team WAR of 30.3 and finishing 85-77.

Accordingly, it can be fairly surmised that if the Mariners had produced a 33.5 team WAR, they would have finished 2013 with at least 81 wins.  With a solid core of returning veterans and expected growth from their blossoming group young players, the Mariners would seemingly be in good position to take the next step towards playoff contention.  But instead, the Mariners went the opposite direction, and ended up distancing themselves as a playoff caliber contender.

There’s no question that the Mariners have a lot of areas that need to be fixed, heading into 2014.  The Mariners currently have no manager, are riddled with holes throughout their starting lineup, rotation, and bullpen, and are being led by a GM whose future with the Mariners is, at best, questionable.

But one area that should be easily corrected entering 2014 is the methodology behind Zduriencik’s veteran acquisitions.  Cheap and safe have not delivered.  It’s time the Mariners take a page out of the Red Sox financial playbook, and begin making shrewd intellectual investments that will generate cost-effective results rather than acquisitions premised primarily on reduced risk, minimal contract obligations, and lowered payroll.