The only thing that could have gone better for the Mariners in 2022 was figuring out a way to defeat the Houston Astros in the American League Divisional Series playoffs. And let’s be real, the challenge was figuring out how to beat Yordan Alvarez. Outside of that one gigantic slugging unsolved mystery, the season couldn’t have been scripted any better.
The Mariners finally ended the longest active playoff drought among the four major North American sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA NHL) that had been dogging them since 2001. And in doing so they captured the attention (and hearts?) of fans nationwide. From the play of their charismatic rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez; to stringing together a 14-win streak that catapulted the team from 10 games below .500 in late June to 18 game above .500 at seasons end; to sweeping the Blue Jays out of the playoffs in the 3-game Wild Card series…the Mariners took their faithful on the type of ride last experienced in 1995.
Heading into the offseason, the Mariners will be focused on closing the gap with their AL West champion rivals, who finished 16 games ahead of them in the standings and swept them in the ALDS en route to winning their second World Series title in the past six seasons. To help accomplish that feat, the Mariners will need to lengthen their lineup and add another high leverage arm, specifically a left-hander. As was exposed during the playoffs, the Mariners far too often struggled to manufacture runs from the bottom half of their lineup which, in turn, caused the top part of their order to rely too heavily on the long ball. And not having that go-to lefty in their stable of hard throwing arms to come in and face someone in a high leverage moment like, oh, say…Alvarez in the 9th? Yeah.
What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2023 Mariners. So, without further ado…
Sign OF Brandon Nimmo to a 5 year/$120M contract
The M’s need to add offense and corner outfield is one place they can do that. While Aaron Judge is available and would look marvelous roaming the T-Mobile outfield grass, the idea of the Mariners adding another $300M+ contract to their payroll is simply not going to happen. Not when the M’s will surely be looking to lock up several more of their notable young players like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Ty France.
As great as Judge is, Brandon Nimmo arguably represents the type of hitter the M’s value and need most: patient and disciplined, high on-base abilities, and good bat-to-ball skills. Yes, Nimmo isn’t going to provide the kind of power someone like Judge will but the Mariners already have power with the likes of Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Julio, and even France. Rather, Nimmo’s value for the Mariners is his ability to put the ball in play and get on base (.384 OBP average over the past three seasons), a component sorely lacking from the team’s offense last year. In 2022, Nimmo slashed .274/.367/.433, which was considered a “down” year for him. Over the prior two seasons, Nimmo averaged a .288/.402/.454. Again, that’s a .402 on base average! His 5.4 fWAR would have led the team, and Nimmo’s 134 wRC+ would have been just below Julio’s 146. As a bonus, Nimmo is also a solid defender who can play all three outfield positions.
Sign LHP Andrew Chafin to a 2 year/$20M contract
The Mariners boasted one of the best bullpens in the American League last season, but the one weakness within their formidable cache of arms was the absence of a reliable left-handed reliever. Anthony Misiewicz started the year as the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, but was eventually demoted to the minors and then traded to Kansas City for cash. Tommy Milone and Ryan Borucki each tried to fill the void but neither were successful. The Mariners acquired Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline – who was coming off the IL for a torn flexor tendon – hoping he could transition from starter to reliever. Although Boyd showed better by posting a 1.35 ERA and 3.19 FIP, he was used sparingly (trust? health?) by manager Scott Servais.
With Boyd now a free agent and reportedly looking for a rotation job, the Mariners find themselves again seeking a proven left-hander for their pen. Veteran Andrew Chafin has been one of the better left-handed relievers throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, Chafin has averaged a 2.59 ERA and 3.14 FIP including a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP with the Tigers last year. Chafin doesn’t have the same velocity (91-92 mph) as fellow free agent lefty Taylor Rogers (95-96 mph) so it’s possible the Mariners could choose to go after the better power arm. But Chafin’s ability to tunnel his sinker/slider combo results in missing bats (87th percentile) and limiting hard contact (81st percentile). Additionally, Chafin keeps the ball on the ground where he produced a 51.3% ground ball rate in 2022 and has a 50.9% ground ball rate for his career. Perhaps most important, Chafin rocks an epic 80’s mustache. Done deal.
Trade RHP Chris Flexen, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Emerson Hancock, and SS Michael Arroyo to the Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds
Since the end of the season, the Mariners and Mitch Haniger have publicly stated their mutual desire to work out a new contract to keep the veteran outfielder in Seattle for the 2023 season and beyond. However, statements by President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto indicating Haniger has “earned the right” to explore free agency throws into question whether the right fielder will be returning. One would think that if the mutual interest was as strong as both sides have presented it to be, then a deal would have been completed by now. Or, at the least, there would be reports that the two sides were working on a new agreement. However, it appears both sides are exploring other options first.
Should Haniger sign elsewhere, a second outfielder will need to be acquired, and the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds should be near the top of the list. The Mariners looked into trading for Reynolds at the 2021 trade deadline but those talks quickly ended after the Pirates insisted on Julio being included in any potential deal. Reynolds’ 2022 numbers were not quite at the level of last season when he produced a .912 OPS and was worth 6.1 fWAR. But they were still solid ( 807 OPS, 2.9 fWAR) and with three seasons of team control left, the price will still be high to acquire the outfielder’s services.
With the Pirates reportedly seeking starting pitching help, the Mariners have the rotation pieces that should be able to meet that need: Chris Flexen and Emerson Hancock. Flexen is a solid mid-rotation starter who is durable, eats innings, and can immediately slot into the starting rotation. Since signing with Seattle two seasons ago, Flexen has averaged a 3.66 ERA and 4.15 FIP.
Hancock, the Mariners No. 2 organizational prospect as well as top pitching prospect, possesses top-of-the rotation stuff. Hancock was the 6th player chosen in the 2020 draft and entered 2021 as the No. 57 ranked prospect in all of baseball. Early arm issues limited Hancock to just 12 games in 2021 causing him to fall off several top prospect lists. However, with those arm issues resolved in 2022, Hancock was back to form and posted a 3.75 ERA in 21 games at Class AA. Hancock is projected to join the Mariners rotation some time in 2023.
In addition to Flexen and Hancock, the Mariners include outfielder Jarred Kelenic, the former No. 4 MLB prospect. Kelenic has yet to establish himself at the MLB level, but at the young age of 23 and just 147 MLB games under his belt, the Mariners believe it is just a matter of needing a bit more time at the MLB level before Kelenic starts to fulfill his lofty projections. Kelenic could turn the corner next season, or it may not be until 2024. Although the Mariners still believe in Kelenic, the team is firmly in “win-now” mode and one has to question how long the organization can afford to wait? Finishing at 62-100 last season, the Pirates are still a few seasons away from being playoff contenders. Kelenic would be able to step right into the everyday lineup – joining fellow youngsters Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Calvin Mitchel – and continue his development while not being faced with the pressure of having to produce immediately.
Lastly, the Mariners include their No. 12 organizational prospect, Michael Arroyo, who was one of the top shortstops of this past international signing period. Arroyo was considered one of the more advanced pure hitters of his class and projects as a future five-tool player with above average power and hit skills. The Mariners thought highly enough of Arroyo to sign him for $1.3M and in his first taste of professional ball, the 17-year old did not disappoint, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, 2 triples and 4 home runs in the Dominican Summer League.
Trade RHP Diego Castillo and OF Jesse Winker to the New York Yankees for 2B Gleyber Torres and RHP Randy Vasquez
With Adam Frazier leaving as a free agent, second base becomes another position where the Mariners can upgrade offensively. While much speculation has been about the Mariners signing Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaert or Dansby Swanson to play shortstop and then moving JP Crawford to 2B, the reality is that the Mariners are unlikely to offer the required 7 to 9 year contract to land any of the four aforementioned players. Rather, the Mariners will look to acquire a second baseman from a team that has a surplus at that position. One of those teams is the New York Yankees who have Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and top prospect Oswald Peraza all capable of playing second base.
Torres has yet to live up to the high expectations that made him the No. 6 MLB prospect entering 2018. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2019 with a .278/.337/.535 and 38 home runs, causing many to believe he was the next great Yankees superstar. But since then, Torres has averaged a .256/.325/.406 and just 12 home runs. Most of the issues and frustrations regarding Torres since that breakout season have revolved around swing and miss tendencies resulting in high strikeouts and low walks. For all his talent and ability, Torres just hasn’t been able to find consistency with the bat. Reportedly, the Yankees were prepared to move on from Torres at last year’s trade deadline with a deal in place to acquire Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. For whatever reason, the Yankees nixed the deal at the last moment.
Despite the concerns, however, there is still much to like about Torres. First is the .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs he produced in 2022, which would represent a significant upgrade over the .238/.301/.311 and three home runs the Mariners received from Adam Frazier. Additionally, Torres showed significant improvement in hitting the ball hard last season – evidenced by an average exit velocity, hard hit%, and barrel% that ranked in the 75th percentile or better. Exit velocity has become the golden measurement in today’s game when projecting future outcomes, and Torres’ average exit velocity last season was 90.4 mph which was above the major league average. Lastly, Torres produced a 4.1 UZR and 9 defensive runs saved playing the key stone last year. With the shift going away in 2023, the Mariners have stated a priority on acquiring a second baseman who has the range and defensive chops of a shortstop. Torres, whose natural position is shortstop, seemingly fits that requirement.
The Mariners also receive right-handed pitcher Randy Vazquez, New York’s No. 14 organizational prospect. Projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, Vasquez possesses a mid-90’s fastball along with a curveball whose high spin rate results in wicked drop. He also utilizes a lower arm slot that results in above average vertical break. That latter quality is something the Mariners would seemingly love to get their hands on and tinker with, much like how they did with Paul Sewald where they lowered his arm slot to increase his vertical approach angle. Vasquez lacks experience pitching in the upper minors, having logged just 21.1 innings at Class AA. But the Mariners have the depth to bring along Vasquez as they did with Matt Brash last year – spending the first few months in the minors transitioning him to a reliever, and then moving him up into their bullpen by mid-season.
With the Yankees looking to bolster their bullpen while also seeking a left fielder, the Mariners part with Diego Castillo and Jesse Winker. Castillo still possesses above average stuff, and produced solid numbers last season with a 3.64 ERA and 3.68 FIP over 59 appearances. However, Castillo never seemed to fully settle in with the Mariners “closer by committee” scheme where the team deployed their high leverage relievers anywhere from the 7th to 9th innings depending on matchups. Every so often, Castillo struggled in situations where the game was not necessarily on the line. A switch back to a more defined 8th inning setup and/or 9th inning closer role would arguably be a better fit for Castillo.
One of the biggest disappointments for the Mariners last season was Jesse Winker’s sudden drop in offense. Winker still got on base (.344 OBP) and showed high plate discipline (15.4% walk rate), but he struggled to drive the ball. It was a highly unexpected and perplexing turn of events for a player who came to Seattle as a career .288/.385/.504 hitter. The Mariners recently disclosed Winker dealt with neck and knee injuries throughout the season which may explain the sudden fall in production. Having already undergone minor surgeries to address both issues, the Mariners believe Winker’s bat will rebound next year. If that belief holds true, then moving on from Winker may not be the wisest move for a team needing more offense. However, with the spacious Seattle outfield amplifying Winker’s defensive shortcomings last year, the Mariners are looking to improve their left field defense and have stated Winker will see the majority of time at designated hitter, which is counter to the team’s preference of not carrying a full-time designated hitter. With Yankee Stadium being the fifth-smallest outfield in all of baseball, Winker’s defensive flaws would not be as big of a factor.
Trade RHP Prelander Berroa and C Luis Torrens to the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Jake McCarthy
With Jarred Kelenic included in the trade for Bryan Reynolds, the Mariners will need to determine who their fourth outfielder will be. They could stay in-house with Taylor Trammell who has all the tools but is still trying to put it all together at the MLB level. Another option is Jake McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks who finds himself in a log jam of young talented outfielders. Despite not having the same prospect pedigree as others within the Arizona farm system, McCarthy produced an encouraging .283/.342/.427, eight home runs, and 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts in his first extended stint at the MLB level. Despite that, though, the Diamondback will presumably head into 2023 with top prospect Corbin Carroll joining former top prospects Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho in the Arizona outfield. That would leave McCarthy fighting for playing time with another former top prospect, Pavin Smith.
With the Diamondbacks seeking bullpen help in addition to a backup catcher, the Mariners alleviate the outfield bottleneck by sending pitcher Prelander Berroa and catcher Luis Torrens to Arizona for McCarthy. Across three levels in 2022 that ended in Class AA, Berroa posted a 2.86 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings as a starter. His fastball sits mid-90s and touches 99, along with a plus slider. Like many young starting pitchers, Berroa needs to develop a reliable third pitch before landing in a MLB rotation. But his fastball/slider arsenal is considered major league ready. Berroa would probably need a bit of time to transition from starting pitcher to reliever, but by mid-season he could be a highly effective arm out of the Diamondbacks bullpen.
Torrens has logged 181 games primarily as the team’s backup catcher over the past few seasons, but with veteran Tom Murphy expected back in 2023 after missing most of last season to injury, Torrens appears to not have a roster spot for 2023. The Mariners like Torrens’ potential with the bat, and with his defense continuing to improve they could carry three catchers as they have in the past. But with Torrens out of minor league options, the smarter move would be to move Torrens in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing.
The Wrap
The Mariners enter the offseason with much of the same goals as last year: find a way to lengthen the lineup. The Mariners thought they had accomplished that by adding Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, but underperformance by Frazier and Winker, and yet another injury to Haniger, that cost him most of the season, left the offense far too reliant on the top half of the lineup to score runs.
With Brandon Nimmo and Bryan Reynolds added to the outfield, and Gleyber Torres sliding in at second base, the Mariners add three players who combined for 11 fWAR last season, an 8.7 fWAR upgrade over the three players they will be replacing in Haniger, Winker and Frazier. Additionally, the Mariners significantly boost their on base abilities where Nimmo, Reynolds and Torres averaged a combined .340 OBP in 2022. Nimmo and Reynolds could also be penciled into the top two spots of the lineup thereby pushing both Julio and France down in the order where they would have more opportunities to drive in runs.
The Mariners will go with the same five starting pitchers they ended the season with last year. In a bit of an aberration, the Mariners were able to get through the entire season without a starting pitcher going down with injury. That occurrence should not be counted on this year, and the team will turn to highly regarded prospects Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller in case of injury. The Mariners will also have the option of moving Matt Brash back into the rotation if that need presents itself.
While the bullpen was again a huge reason for the team’s success, the Mariners lacked a steadfast left-handed reliever. The addition Andrew Chafin gives the team that proven high-leverage arm from the left side. Randy Vasquez presents depth and a possible mid-season boost much like how Brash did last year. An argument could be made that one more reliever needs to be added, especially with the trading away of Diego Castillo. But reports are that the Mariners are super high on Isaiah Campbell’s mid-season transition from starter to reliever last year, where after moving to the bullpen Campbell flashed a 95 to 98 mph fastball and an elite slider resulting in a 1.61 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 28 relief innings. Look for Campbell to play a major role in the Mariners bullpen in 2023.
Mission:Mariner 