Tag Archives: James Paxton

Jerry Dipoto And Mariners Setting the Offseason Bar

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If there is one thing we can say about new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, it’s that he has a vision, and he’s not wasting any time turning that vision into a reality.

Fresh off completing his fourth trade of the offseason – acquiring shortstop Luis Sardinas from the Milwaukee Brewers for minor league outfielder Ramon Flores – and sixth overall transaction since the start to free agency on November 2nd, rumors of a possible Mariners-Marlins deal involving outfielder Marcell Ozuna heading to the Mariners in exchange for one of their young starting pitchers – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Roenis Elias or Nathan Karns – is lighting up the hot stove.

Now, we here at Mission Mariner don’t need to go into great detail about our thoughts of an Ozuna acquisition. We championed that idea over a year ago, and then again at last year’s trade deadline.  So it goes without saying that the idea of Ozuna patrolling the outfield is a strongly welcomed one, even if it means parting with Walker.   And before people take to their pitchforks over the thought of trading away Walker, let me just say that yes, Walker is a talent.  And, yes, Walker might be the next coming of Felix Hernandez.  But Ozuna is also a talent, and may be the next Carlos Gomez.  And when it comes to choosing between a future Felix Hernandez or a future Carlos Gomez, one is better off acquiring the player that will be playing every day rather than the player who will play just once every five days.

That said, should an Ozuna deal go down, it would highlight an incredible first month of roster-makeover activity from Dipoto.  It would punctuate a divergence from former GM Jack Zduriencik’s deliberate “wait out the market” approach.  Dipoto’s more aggressive “know what you want and go get it” style has already resulted in the acquisition of nine new players, at least seven of whom figure to be on the 25-man roster.  So far, Dipoto is this year’s A.J. Preller, but with a bit more restraint and pragmatism.  Consider:

In contrast, it was expected for Zduriencik not to get into the offseason game until the December Winter meetings or thereafter.   While this usually had no repercussion if one was targeting a blue chip free agent, it often meant that many of the second and third tier free agents – players often in the Mariners’ targeted price range – would be off the board by then.  This often resulted in ill-advised trades (see the Pineda deal), or signing low risk players who hopefully could provide high rewards (see Jack Cust).

Below is a list of Zduriencik’s first offseason transactions in each of his seven years as GM:

Of course, not all the deals were bad.  Kendrys Morales proved to be a productive hitter, and J.A. Happ provided solid innings as a middle of the rotation arm. The rest? A mixed bag mostly of disappointing returns.

More to the point, however, is the timetable of initial deals in contrast to what we are seeing now with Dipoto.

Zduriencik’s earliest notable offseason deal happened last season with the December 3rd trade of Michael Saunders, just over one month later than Dipoto’s first deal this offseason.  In 2012, it wasn’t until January 23rd – roughly two and one half months later than this year’s first transaction – when Zduriencik made his first notable offseason deal.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, for one, its clear Dipoto has a plan and he is quickly acting upon it.  Zduriencik might have had a plan as well, but, for whatever reason, he did not have the same urgency to put it into motion.  More importantly, though, by getting a jump on the offseason, Dipoto is getting the players he wants.  Conversely, it appeared most often that Zduriencik acquired players after most had already been picked through by the rest of baseball.  This seemingly was the result of Zduriencik choosing to wait out the market and then target players left over who could be signed at a lesser cost.

For seven years, that strategy never reaped much success.

Time will only tell if Dipoto’s “fast and furious” manner will provide the success he is looking for, and the results fans are expecting.  But whatever the outcome, Dipoto’s success or failure will rest with the players he wanted, not with players he didn’t.

And that, if anything, should be a welcomed change.

Assessing the Mariners’ Offseason Additions

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This past week marked the first full squad workouts for the Mariners this Spring Training, and unless you live off the grid, or are still mired in a post-Super Bowl depression, you know by now that most baseball news outlets and experts have Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer playoff bound for 2015. In a rare moment of togetherness, the Mariners have traditionalists and statisticians both jumping on the Mariner bandwagon and picking them as the trendy team to make some noise this upcoming season.   For example, Fangraphs projects the Mariners being the best team in the American League in 2015. ESPN has them as the second best team.   Baseball Prospectus foresees the Mariners as the third best team. Those certainly are lofty predictions – the kind the Mariners haven’t seen since the days of Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella.

Much of the ballyhoo stems from an off season that – on paper –has propelled the Mariners from just-not-quite-good-enough to one of the best in the league. Heck, even Robinson Cano has caught the “on paper” bug. But are all the accolades deserved and well placed?

Below is a quick run through of the Mariners’ major off season acquisitions; the hope for each player as seen through the eyes of the Mariners; and the red flags that each player brings with them that the Mariners hope don’t rear their ugly head.

Nelson Cruz, DH. Signed to a 4/$57M contract.

The Hope: Cruz led the A.L. in homeruns last season with 40, and provided potent cleanup hitter production with a .859 OPS and a 140 OPS+.   That type of production compelled Jack Zduriencik to commit four years to the to-be 35 year old to bat behind Cano. Moving to the power suppressing chamber known as Safeco Field, Zduriencik and McClendon surely do not expect Cruz to replicate those numbers. But 25 homeruns and an .800 OPS would be a huge and welcomed upgrade at a position that yielded a paltry .190/.266/.301 from 16 players last season.

The Red Flag: The knock on Cruz has been that his career numbers are propelled by playing in hitter friendly ball parks. The criticism bears merit, especially when looking at his overall numbers in pitcher friendly A.L. West ballparks where Cruz owns a career .749 OPS at Safeco, a .571 OPS at Oakland Coliseum, and a .654 OPS at Angel Stadium.   Those stadiums will be home to roughly 60% of Cruz’s games in 2015, and if his numbers in those parks remain near his career averages, the Mariners will have spent a lot of money for production they could have received by merely moving Michael Saunders to DH.

Seth Smith, RF. Acquired from San Diego for Brandon Maurer  

The Hope: After the perplexing Saunders saga and trade, and then the inability to sign Melky Cabrera, Zduriencik acquired Smith to be the everyday right fielder against RHP. Smith is not the defender that Saunders is, but he ostensibly brings a few key upgrades to right field, namely the ability to stay healthy, a career .800 OPS, a career .839 OPS against RHP, and the proven ability to hit in a spacious ballpark (.841 OPS hitting in Petco Park last season).

The Red Flag: The past three seasons, Smith has displayed some fairly concerning first/second half splits. Consider the following:

2014 – First Half:  .895 OPS, Second half:  .685 OPS

2013 – First Half:  .742 OPS, Second Half:  .659 OPS

2012 – First Half:  .789 OPS, Second Half:  .702 OPS

This penchant for tailing-off in the second half should be worrisome and could end up being problematic for a team relying on Smith to produce in order to contend for a playoff spot.   Smith seemingly represents an upgrade over the .721 OPS they received out of right field a year ago, but it should be noted that Saunders’ second half numbers the past three years have trumped those of Smith. Which begs the question: would one rather have an above average defensive player who starts off slow, finishes strong, but ends the year with average overall numbers? Or a below average defensive player who gets off to a hot start, fades badly in the second half, but still finishes with above average overall numbers?  According to advanced metrics, it seems the answer would be the former, as Saunders’ rWAR the past three seasons matches that of Smith’s (5.8) but tops Smith’s fWAR during this same time (5.3 to 4.9).

Justin Ruggiano, OF. Acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Matt Brazis.

 The Hope: Ruggiano’s acquisition was premised on one main attribute: his ability to mash left handed pitching. Over his career, Ruggiano owns an .836 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners hope Ruggiano continues that trend helping to form a potent platoon with Smith in right field. Defensively, Ruggiano has been adequate across all three outfield positions and will backup Dustin Ackley in left and Austin Jackson in center.

The Red Flag. Zduriencik has gone on record stating that Ruggiano is not just a part-time platoon player, but someone who could play every day if needed. That’s a fairly big leap of faith for someone who has played more than 91 games in a season just once. And when he did (128 games in 2013) Ruggiano struggled greatly against RHP, slashing a .210/.283/.347 in 322 plate appearances.

Rickie Weeks, Utility. Signed to a 1/$2M contract.

 The Hope: Weeks brings another right handed bat to the Mariners, one that has produced a career .834 OPS against lefties including an .865 OPS last season. Although never having spent a moment in the outfield, Zduriencik and the Mariners envision Weeks platooning with Ackley in left field, as well as providing a right handed alternative at 3B, 2B and 1B if needed.

The Red Flag: Did we mention that Weeks has never played the outfield before during his career? In addition, Weeks will turn 33 in 2015 and has been nothing short of a below average to poor defensive second baseman the past three seasons due to his declining ability to get to balls put in play. Those are not good signs for someone who is expected to log most of his time in left field.

J.A. Happ, SP. Acquired from Toronto for Michael Saunders.    

The Hope: An obvious need for the Mariners during the offseason was acquiring starting pitching depth, and the Mariners believe Happ’s addition adds just that. Despite being used as a reliever at times last year, Happ managed 26 starts going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and averaged close to six innings per start.  Projected as this year’s fourth starter, the Mariners would be happy to receive that type of production from Happ again.

The Red Flag: Happ represents more of a replacement for the departed Chris Young than he does added depth. More concerning, however, is Happ’s injury history. Happ missed significant time in 2012 and 2013 due to injuries including a skull fracture suffered in 2013 after being struck in the head by a line drive. A sore back then landed Happ on the disabled list to the start of 2014. With the rotation likely featuring two inexperienced rookies (James Paxton and Taijuan Walker) coming off arm injuries, and their only other viable starter (Roenis Elias) also coming off arm injury, the Mariners will need Happ to stay healthy to provide “depth” and rotation stability.

Zduriencik, Mariners Miss the Boat on Matt Kemp

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Yesterday was a bad day for Jack Zduriencik.

During the final day of the Winter Meetings, the Mariners’ quest to land a big-ticket hitter to fill their void in right field came up empty.

The Mariners had three players in their cross-hairs: Justin Upton, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Kemp. Any one of the three would have represented an offensive upgrade. None of the three went home with the Mariners.

Rather, the Braves refused to lower their asking price of Taijuan Walker or James Paxton for just one year of Upton, Cabrera spurned the idea of a three year deal with the Mariners in lieu of the five years he is trying to secure, and Kemp was traded to the San Diego Padres for a trio of decent yet fairly insignificant prospects.

Yes, it was a very bad day.

Of course, there is still time to try and work out deals for either Upton or Cabrera. If the Braves are willing to take Walker or Paxton off the table, the Mariners surely would press hard to acquire Upton’s services. And if Cabrera would be amenable to a four year deal, the Mariners may be willing to add another year to their offer. But the likelihood of either of those deals happening becomes bleaker by the day.

The Braves understand that they are under no urgency to trade Upton and would be content to hold onto him if their asking price is not met. By doing so, the Braves would have the option of dealing Upton at the July 31 trade deadline, or just let him play out his final contract year and then attach a qualifying offer to him at season’s end. If the Braves did lower their asking price on Upton, one can be sure that the number of interested teams would increase dramatically.

After the free agent signings of Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Pablo Sandoval, Cabrera remains as the best free agent hitter left on the market. Cabrera probably will end up receiving a four year offer close to $60M from one of the handful of teams still searching for offensive upgrades. If that should happen, the Mariners would surely have to give Cabrera the five years he is looking for in order to lure him to the far reaches of the Pacific Northwest (where he initially indicated he did not want to play).

Which brings us to Kemp. The Mariners have long been linked to the all-star slugger ranging all the back to the beginning of 2014, and then during last year’s trade deadline. Prior to the Winter Meetings, the Mariners and Dodgers were reportedly close to a deal that had Kemp and $53.5M going to Seattle in exchange for Brad Miller, Michael Saunders and a prospect not named Walker or Paxton.   But the Dodgers ultimately insisted on Walker or Paxton while also deciding that paying half of Kemp’s remaining salary was too much compensation. Unwilling to part with either Walker or Paxton, and reluctant to take on more than half of Kemp’s remaining salary, Zduriencik walked away from the deal.

The Mariners and Dodgers continued to try to work something out during the Winter Meetings, but the impasse over Walker or Paxton ultimately prevented such a happening. The Dodgers ended up trading Kemp, catcher Tim Federowicz and $32M to the Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal and minor league pitchers Joe Wieland and Zach Eflin.

Again, that was Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland (who?) and Zach Eflin (again, who?) for Kemp at a yearly cost of $15M.

In other words, Zduriencik and the Mariners completely missed the boat on Kemp.

Look, Grandal is a decent prospect, if you can call him that. This coming year will be Grandal’s age 27 season, and he has just 216 MLB games and 777 plate appearances to his credit. Translation: he is far from a proven entity. That said, Grandal has always been seen as someone possessing good offensive upside, but questionable defensive and receiving skills behind the plate. Think Jesus Montero, minus the ice cream sandwich, PED’s and slightly better defense. Like Montero, Grandal’s value is highest as a catcher, but most believe his future is at first base or designated hitter. The Padres were one of those believers, splitting his time at catcher and first base.   With Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first, the Dodgers seemingly believe his future is at catcher.

As for Wieland and Eflin, the former is a 24 year old profiled with having “average stuff” and back of the rotation potential. Wieland missed all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but, after a solid minor league showing last year, was recalled to the big leagues where he made two starts and two relief appearances, posting a 7.15 ERA. Eflin, 20, has the higher ceiling of the two. But having spent 2014 at Class A+ where he tossed 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA, the 6-foot-4, right-hander is several years away from contributing at the major league level.

Clearly not an inspiring haul by the Dodgers considering they just parted with one of the top right handed hitters in all of baseball. And certainly a package the Mariners could have topped.

All of which begs the question: What is the love affair between Zduriencik and Walker?

Yes, Walker is a blue chip prospect. And, yes, he may one day blossom into a top of the rotation arm. But right now, reality defines Walker as an unproven player who at an early stage of his career is already experiencing the type of arm injury that should warrant some concern. Walker missed most of 2014 due to reoccurring shoulder soreness and inflammation.  Moving forward, the Mariners are going to proceed cautiously with Walker, and it’s questionable whether Walker makes the starting rotation out of spring training.  If he should, it’s almost a guarantee Walker won’t be allowed to pitch an entire year due to the standard innings and pitch limitations that are placed on a young pitcher coming back from injury.

Oddly, the rationale of the Mariners’ reluctance to part with any of its pitching is Zduriencik’s concerns surrounding the health of Walker, Paxton and fellow starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Roenis Elias, and his trepidations than one or more of the aforementioned may not be able to pitch a complete season next year. The possibility of such an occurrence has Zduriencik believing that trading away Walker (or Paxton) would be foolish.

I get that Walker has immense potential. I understand today’s “value” placed on team control. But I also recognize that the Mariners are fairly deep in pitching prospects; have a shortage of quality hitters both in the minors and at the MLB level; and that if the Mariners truly have concerns over Walker’s health and ability to pitch an entire season, trading him would actually be the opposite of foolish.

I also understand that the Mariners have created a five-year window for themselves to make as many runs at the World Series as possible before age begins to take an ill-effect on Robinson Cano, Cruz, Hernandez and Iwakuma .

Knowing all of this, the question Zduriencik and the Mariners should be asking themselves is who makes this team better over the next five years: Kemp or Walker?

Now let’s remember, this isn’t a Walker for one year of Upton type of situation. That would be foolish. Rather, this is Walker for five years of one of the elite hitters in the game who – with Cano, Cruz, and Kyle Seager – would have helped form arguably the most potent offensive lineup in the game.

Last year, all Kemp did was produce a .287/.346/.506 with a 140 wRC+. In a division that contains three of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball, Kemp dismissed adverse park factors, lighting up Dodger Stadium, Petco and AT&T with OPS’s of.850, .780 and 1.069, respectively.

If the goal is to take advantage of the remaining prime years of Cano, Cruz, Hernandez and Iwakuma, hanging onto Walker doesn’t make a ton of sense if he could be used to acquire a player like Kemp who would substantially help the Mariners make a serious run at a World Series during the next four to five years.  Walker may become a top notch starter three to four years from now. But by that time, the Mariners will be flush with in-house pitching options.

By then, Paxton should be pitching from the top of the rotation with Elias settled in as a decent back end starter. Top prospect, Danny Hultzen, ought to be recovered from arm surgery and serving as a mid-rotation arm. And current prospects Jordan Pries and Edwin Diaz (the organization’s co-pitchers of the year in 2014) along with top organizational hurlers Forest Snow, Victor Sanchez, Luiz Gohara and Tyler Pike, will all be vying for a chance to break into the starting rotation.  And let’s not forget the many free agent pitchers that will be available during the coming seasons, and the fact the Mariners will still have Hernandez pitching in his prime.

That’s a solid list of projected top, middle and back end starters.  It’s a sound mix of talent already at the MLB level and in the minor leagues just a few years away. Had the Mariners chosen to trade Walker, his absence presumably would not have been felt all that much. At least not to the point where it would cripple the starting rotation, like so many argue it would.

Of course the biggest knock on Kemp is his defense, or lack thereof. And most cynics point to Kemp’s WAR and UZR totals to try and theorize that Kemp should not be in the outfield. But Kemp’s WAR and UZR are indicative of his play in center field which, indeed, has reached levels of despair. But that wouldn’t be the case in right field, where his deficiencies would be greatly reduced.

Last season, Kemp’s UZR/150 playing center field was -33.8. That type of defense would surely negate any type of offense that Kemp would provide. But after shifting to right field, Kemp improved to a -8.8 UZR/150. Still not great, but not nearly as bad as when patrolling the middle of the outfield.

Given more time to adjust to right field, Kemp’s defense probably would “improve” to below average range – somewhere between a 0 and -5 UZR. But if Kemp can produce a 130 to 140 wRC+ offensively, his defense becomes passable. In fact, it would ostensibly make Kemp a 3.0 WAR player. Maybe even a bit more. And seeing how teams are paying roughly $6.5M per WAR, $15M per year would have been a financial bargain considering the skyrocketing costs of offense.

A recent article by Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello offers similar projections of Kemp as a corner outfielder. Albeit far from a glowing recommendation, Petriello weighed Kemp’s defensive abilities, injury history and age, and concluded “given a full year of data and health in a corner, Kemp couldn’t be at least adequate as relates to the offense he provides, because he’s still got that arm and being slower isn’t the same as being slow.”

Yes, the Mariners passed on a rare opportunity to dramatically upgrade their offense. And they did so by idealizing the future of an unproven, injury prone prospect while, at the same time, taking a worst case approach towards one of the game’s elite right handed hitter. But luckily, there are still options available. But with one less viable hitter on the board, the price for acquiring a Cabrera or Upton has now gone up. And come next year, the cost for top free agents such as Upton, Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes will be even greater than it is today.

But hey, at least the Mariners still have Walker. Even if he might spend 2015 in Tacoma.

Melky Cabrera Makes Little Sense for Mariners

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The Winter Meetings begin tomorrow in San Diego, CA and all Mariner eyes will be on GM Jack Zduriencik as he continues his push to land a right fielder. With Michael Saunders recently traded to Toronto for starting pitcher J.A. Happ, and newly acquired Nelson Cruz slated to spend the majority of time as the team’s designated hitter, Zduriencik will undoubtedly be working the floor incessantly in order to land a second “big” bat for his offense.

The Mariners have been tied to the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp and the Braves’ Justin Upton for most of the offseason. Both players would represent huge upgrades in right field, but both also come with lofty costs as Los Angeles and Atlanta are said to be asking for blue chip prospects in return, including top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker. Complicating matters even more, Upton would be a one-year rental as he is set to hit free agency as season’s end, and Kemp is owed $107M over the next five seasons.

With the Mariners seemingly not comfortable with the current asking prices for Kemp or Upton (recent reports indicate the Mariners turned down a trade of Walker for Kemp plus $53.5M) Zduriencik is now entertaining the idea of signing free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

On the surface, Cabrera makes some sense for the Mariners. His acquisition wouldn’t require the Mariners to part with Walker or James Paxton. And coming off a 2014 season where he slashed a .301/.351/.458 with 16 homeruns, 35 doubles and 3 triples, Cabrera would seemingly fill the Mariners’ need for a right fielder who can wield a productive bat.

However, with dealing Saunders away, the intent of the Mariners presumably is to acquire a player that will significantly improve the offensive production out of right field.

Yet, when examing the numbers closer, Cabrera doesn’t really represent much of an upgrade.

Last year, Cabrera produced a 126 OPS+, a 125 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .458 slugging percentage. Saunders produced a near identical 128 OPS+, 126 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and a .450 slugging percentage. Cabrera did put up a solid .808 OPS, but his OPS was buoyed by two huge months in March/April (.935 OPS) and July (.956 OPS) while the rest of the year consisted of fairly pedestrial monthly OPS’s of .735, .751, .714, and .402.   Saunders ended the season with a lower .791 OPS but was a tad more consistent with OPS’s of .834, .862, and .952 in May, July and September/October.  Saunders’ down months, however, fared worse than Cabrera’s, with OPS’s of .600 and .651 in March/ April and June.

In considering these numbers, we can not overlook the fact that Saunders played in only 78 games last season due to injury and perplexing decisions by manager Lloyd McClendon to keep him on the bench, stemming all the way back to spring training. With that in mind, if we are to look at the numbers from the past two seasons (i.e. Cabrera’s post PED years) Saunders comes out as the more valuable player, producing a 3.2 fWAR in 731 plate appearances to Cabrera’s 1.7 fWAR in 993 plate appearances.  And in looking at 2015, Saunders’ is projected by Steamer to produce a 1.8 fWAR compared to Cabrera’s projection of 1.7 fWAR.

Given those numbers, Cabrera’s asking price is steep; 5-years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $60M-$75M. But keeping in mind the recent contracts given to fellow right fielders Cruz (4 years, $57M) and Nick Markakis (4 years, $44M), such an asking price is not unreasonable.

While Cabrera would undoubtedly bring more expected reliability to the right field position, the numbers show that when on the field, Saunders was as good, or better, than Cabrera.  In addition, the Mariners reportedly would bat Cabrera second, which seems counter-productive considering the dire need for another run producer to hit in the middle of the batting order, as well as the fact the Mariners return Dustin Ackley who produced a .765 OPS serving as the Mariners #2 hitter from July 26th until the end of the season.

All of which begs the question: Is reliability worth paying Cabrera $12M-$15M per year over the next five years to be the Mariners #2 hitter when Saunders would have cost the Mariners merely $3M in arbitration?

If the Mariners are truly looking for a substantial upgrade in right field, Kemp or Upton should be the preferred targets.

Because when you consider that a player like Kemp – who posted an .800+ OPS in all but one month of the season last year, as well as a wRC+ of 140 – could be had for $10M per year over the next five years, even if it requires trading Walker, the idea of signing Cabrera for far more money in order to receive far less offensive production, over the exact same time span, is simply nonsensical.

Injuries May Have Seattle Mariners Rethinking Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana

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With pitchers and catchers reporting to Peoria, the Nelson Cruz “will he or won’t he be a Mariner” saga still has yet to reach a conclusion.  Rumors continue to swirl around the blogosphere that it’s only a matter of time before Cruz will be donning Mariner blue.  Recent reports indicate that a deal between the Mariners and Cruz is close, with only a difference in contract years standing in the way of a completed deal.  The Mariners seemingly do not want to go more than two guaranteed years, with a third vesting year being a possibility.  Cruz – initially looking for a five year deal at the beginning of the offseason – purportedly is looking for three or more guaranteed years.

The discourse over a possible Cruz acquisition continues to be one of heavy debate.  And the debate is noteworthy.  On one hand, Cruz represents that right-handed power hitting outfield bat the Mariners covet (career .823 OPS, 32 hr/season average). Not only would he help balance out a predominantly left-handed hitting lineup but would slot in nicely behind Robinson Cano and Corey Hart providing the Mariners with a potentially lethal middle of the order batting lineup.  On the other hand, Cruz brings with him some fairly heavy concerns, namely his questionable hitting outside of hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark, (a career road OPS of .734, compared to a career .912 OPS at home), his 50 game suspension in connection to the Biogenesis scandal, and his defensive regression in the outfield (-14.1 UZR in 3055.3 innings the past three seasons).

Both sides of the Cruz examination bring merit to the sign/don’t sign Cruz dialogue.  There’s no arguing that Cruz would be a risky signing for all the reasons mentioned above.  But at the same time, concerns over his career OPS away from Rangers Ballpark may be overblown, as his road OPS+ indicates above average production in three of the past five seasons.  Still, it’s a gamble that GM Jack Zduriencik has to make, and one he appears willing to roll the dice on if the number of years falls to his favor, thereby minimizing the long-term risk while maximizing the possible short-term benefits.

However, by waiting so long to address their outfield needs, the Mariners now find themselves – barring a trade – with really one of two options; sign Cruz, or go with what’s in-house.  And outside of prospect Abraham Almonte, there isn’t a ton of viable outfield options that are mlb ready within the Mariners organization.

So now, at this juncture, it’s Cruz or nothing.  It’s shopping for a tree on Christmas Eve, with Cruz akin to the best of the remaining mangled up and dried out Douglas Firs that no one really wants. Despite seriously questioning whether the tree would last through the New Year, you need something.  And you know coming home empty handed would most likely end up being more problematic than coming home with something.

Complicating the decision, however, is the recent rash of injuries to players expected to play a prominent role for the Mariners during the upcoming season.

Yesterday, Mariners officials announced that starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will miss 4-6 weeks with a strained tendon in his middle finger of his pitching hand.  Having your No. 2 pitcher sidelined with injury is never welcomed news.  But for a pitching staff trying to find viable arms to compete for the last three pitching spots in the rotation, losing Iwakuma couldn’t have come at a worse time. This setback may now force Zduriencik to reassess how he wants to allocate the team’s remaining offseason funds, opting to abandon his pursuit of Cruz in favor of acquiring one of the remaining top free agent pitchers in Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Mariners also announced today that outfielder Franklin Gutierrez will miss the 2014 season due to a relapse of the gastrointestinal issues that sidelined him for most of last season.  Although Gutierrez was looked upon as only a reserve outfielder, he was one of the few right handed hitters the team had, and was a potential platoon partner for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders, Logan Morrison, and/or Dustin Ackley, all of whom figure to be in the mix for at least two of the starting outfield jobs.  Gutierrez’s absence ostensibly increases the need to add another right handed hitting outfielder.  Cruz would fill that need, and the Mariners may now feel the need to compromise their previous position and give Cruz the three plus guaranteed years he’s looking for.

The Mariners now find themselves in a pickle of a situation.  And it’s one that the Mariners could have avoided had they been more proactive in free agency when affordable free agents outfielders such as Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, David Murphy and Chris Young, as well as starting pitchers Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir were all readily available for the signing.

Where the Mariners go from here is anyone’s guess.  But one thing is for sure; the Mariners will have to do something.  Heading into the season with a starting outfield of Morrison, Ackley and Saunders, with rookie Almonte serving as the fourth outfielder, and a starting rotation of Felix Hernandez followed by four from a selection of Scott Baker, Randy Wolf, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Hector Noesi, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, and Zach Minor is simply – to put it kindly – underperformance waiting to happen.

What’s Next for the Seattle Mariners?

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It’s been five weeks since the Mariners went on an acquisition binge by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and trading for Logan Morrison all within a span of five days.  But since that bender, all has gone relatively silent from GM Jack Zduriencik, raising question as to whether the Mariners have exhausted their available offseason funds to make further significant moves, or are simply waiting for their next opportunity to strike?  The question looms large, as the Mariners – despite adding Cano, Hart and Morrison – find themselves still needing to address several weak points in their lineup.

The Mariners entered the offseason primarily in want of an everyday center fielder, a designated hitter, a backup catcher, and a #3 pitcher for the rotation.  Ideally, they also sought an everyday power hitting corner outfielder, and help in the bullpen.  Depending on how Hart and Morrison are used, the designated hitter position could be filled.  The Mariners reportedly signed veteran catcher John Buck to a one year deal to be the backup to Mike Zunino.  But despite these moves, the Mariners still find themselves with a fairly large to-do list.

A few big name free agents still remain on the market who could help the Mariners in 2014.   Designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, right fielder Nelson Cruz, starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka, and relief pitchers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are all available, would fill needs, but each would come at a fairly significant price.   If the Mariners truly are strapped for cash, and with a mostly depleted free agent market limiting their options, the Mariners will presumably have to rely on trades if they want to further upgrade their lineup.

Let’s take a look at where the Mariners stand in regard to their remaining areas of concern.

Centerfield:  Rumor is that Zduriencik and company are looking to Michael Saunders to be their everyday center fielder.  Back in 2011, Saunders appeared to be on his way to establishing himself as an above average defensive center fielder, putting up a 3.2 UZR in 44 games.  But since then, his defense has regressed as a starter.  In 2012, Saunders’ UZR as a center fielder fell to -3.7.   Last year it fell even further, to -9.6.   Not exactly what you want in a center fielder.  Perhaps the Mariners believe Saunders will rebound.  That certainly could happen. But it’s difficult to imagine any ball club, aware of such a downward defensive trend, being comfortable heading into the season with that type of uncertainty at one of their most important defensive positions, with no real backup plan.

The Mariners did resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year deal.   But injury has now reduced the former starting center fielder to being a fourth outfielder only capable of playing three – maybe four – times a week, if lucky.   During his on-the-job training last season, Dustin Ackley showed the ability to play centerfield on a regular basis, but in his limited time there (48 games) he proved to be less than good, producing a -6.3 UZR.  Ackley should improve as he acquires more innings and becomes more comfortable roaming the outfield.  The question, however, is by how much, and how quickly?  And can the Mariners afford to gamble on Ackley developing into an adequate center fielder should that need arise?

If all else fails, Abraham Almonte is another option for the Mariners in centerfield.  In his first call-up to the bigs last season after being acquired via trade with the Yankees, Almonte showed speed and promise in limited action, producing a -1.2 UZR in 25 games.  But, like Ackley, it is unknown whether Almonte can handle the grind of playing on a regular basis.

Designated Hitter: Corey Hart would appear to be the new designated hitter, the position best suited for him.  But Zduriencik has gone on record stating the intention is for Hart to see time in right field.  Hart running around the outfield would be a precarious sight for anyone’s eyes.   Besides his less than desired defensive prowess (a career -15.0 UZR in RF), Hart sat out the entire 2013 season recovering from injuries to both knees.  Although now deemed healthy, it’s absolutely impossible to know how Hart will hold up to playing on a regular basis, which is why the Mariners signed Hart to an incentive laden contract.

If Hart does find himself in right field, the Mariners could use Logan Morrison at designated hitter.  Morrison is best suited as a designated hitter or first baseman, but, like Hart, Zduriencik has said that he, too, will see time in the outfield.  Could we see Morrison and Hart roaming the corner outfield positions at the same time?  One would hope not, but if the Mariners can have Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse starting in the outfield together, then anything is possible.

Jesus Montero, if he isn’t traded, will surely be given a chance to win a roster spot this coming season.  How big of a chance remains to be seen.  After being demoted to the minors last year, and serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, questions linger whether the catcher-now-turned-designated hitter/first baseman can find that stroke that made him one of the top all-around hitting prospects in baseball?  He’ll have to if Montero wants to find his way back onto the Mariners 25-man roster.  However, Montero’s only realistic hope of making the team is as the starting designated hitter.  With Hart, Morrison, and Smoak sure to be on the opening day roster, the Mariners do not have room for a reserve player whose utility is limited to designated hitter and first base.

Starting Pitching:  At the top of their rotation, the Mariners boast two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  Last season, Hernandez and Iwakuma combined to go 26-16 with a 2.84 ERA.  At the bottom of the rotation, the Mariners have two of baseball’s best mlb-ready pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  During their late season call-up last year, Walker and Paxton combined to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA.  The problem for the Mariners is they have nothing in between.  As it stands now, the starting rotation consists of Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top, Walker and Paxton rounding out the bottom, and under achieving holdovers Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi and Brandon Maurer fighting it out for the #3 spot. As much talent as Walker and Paxton bring to the table, Zduriencik does not want to head into the season with three-fifths of his rotation relying heavily on inexperienced and untested arms.   And with Walker and Paxton most likely being limited to somewhere between 150-170 innings each in order to protect their arms in their first full season at the big league level, the Mariners lack the pitching depth when the time comes to shut them down for the year.

The acquisition of a solid #3 pitcher would allow Walker and Paxton to comfortably fill out the last two rotation spots, with Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan and/or Noesi able to step in if either struggle or reach their innings limit.  As it stands, the Mariners have several options that they could go in to acquire that mid rotation arm.  As mentioned, the Mariners could dip into free agency and sign Garza, Santana or Jimenez (Santana and Jimenez have draft pick compensation attached to them) or enter the Tanaka sweepstakes.  Of course, bringing aboard any of those players would take a financial commitment.  David Price, whom the Mariners have been linked to quite frequently this offseason, could come via trade with the Rays, giving the Mariners one of the best rotations in baseball.  Price is due to only make $10MM this season, is under team control until 2016, but would cost the Mariners a couple of top prospects, including one of Walker or Paxton.  Others like Bronson Arroyo and Chris Capuano are available, although at this stage in their respective careers, they both are closer to being #5 starters than they are solid #3 starters.

Bullpen:  Last season, Mariners relievers posted a 4.59 ERA, good enough to finish 29th in all of baseball.  They also blew 23 save opportunities, seventh worst in all of baseball.  Those two statistics alone stand as reason enough that upgrading the bullpen for 2014 is desperately needed.  Despite solid performances from Charlie Furbush (3.74 ERA), Oliver Perez (3.73 ERA) Yoervis Medina (2.91 ERA) and Danny Farquhar (2.23 ERA, 16 saves in the second half), the rest of the relievers –  Beavan (5.28 ERA), Noesi (7.83 ERA), Tom Wilhelmsen (4.12 ERA), Lucas Luetge (4.86 ERA), Bobby LaFromboise (5.91 ERA), and Carter Capps (5.49 ERA) – all proved to be ineffective.  Adding to the need to bring in help, Capps was traded this offseason to the Rays in exchange for Morrison, Perez elected to explore free agency, and hard throwing set-up man, Stephen Pryor, is still recovering from torn lat and triceps injuries that saw him miss most of last season.  Yet, despite the abuse that was taken by Mariners relievers in 2013, Zduriencik has yet to make any improvements.  The addition of Balfour or Rodney – both capable of serving as closers – would strengthen a questionable bullpen, but there are no indications that Zduriencik is interested in investing the type of money needed to secure the services of either player. If the Mariners elect to stand pat, Zduriencik will most likely be banking on Farquhar continuing to perform in the closers role as he did in the second half of last season, that Pryor will be healthy and able to hold down the set-up role, Wilhelmsen will return to form, and one of Luetge or LaFromboise will emerge as a competent second left-handed specialist to go with Furbush.

Corner Outfielder:  The Mariners have let it be known that they would like to add a power hitting outfielder into the mix for 2014.  But if the season were to begin today, the probable starting lineup would consist of Ackley in left field, Saunders in center field and either Hart or Morrison in right field.  Assuming Hart would begin the season at designated hitter, an Ackley/Saunders/Morrison outfield doesn’t quite provide that sought after power.  The Mariners have been linked to free agent Nelson Cruz for most of the offseason, with rumors being that Cruz already turned down a five-year, $75MM contract from the Mariners. Signing Cruz would be the easiest solution towards fulfilling the power corner outfield void, but Cruz’s suspect defense and the fact he is coming off a PED suspension, makes his acquisition risky and possibly unwise.  The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is another possibility the Mariners could explore.  Like Cruz, Ethier is a middle-of-the-order bat.  But unlike Cruz, Ethier would provide solid defense in right field.  But Ethier carries with him a $15MM annual salary, in addition to the fact the Mariners would probably have to give up a top prospect in return.  Both of those factors could make a trade of this kind unlikely for Zduriencik.  All things considered, the most plausible acquisition (not necessarily the best, mind you) would be the Mariners continuing to wait out the Morales market, and then signing him to a “qualifying offer-reduced” two or three-year deal at around $10MM per year to be the designated hitter, and then use the power hitting Hart as the regular right fielder.  Of course, as stated earlier, Hart running around the outfield on two bad knees is just a season-ending injury waiting to happen.

Revisiting Zduriencik’s Infamous 2010 Letter

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As the Mariners begin their search for their third manager in five seasons, we at Mission Mariner are reminded of the letter Jack Zduriencik e-mailed to season ticket holders the last time the Mariners found themselves in this very position.

The letter written after the fateful 2010 season, which saw the Mariners lose 101 games, and was highlighted by the firing of manager Don Wakamatsu midway through the season.

The letter where Zduriencik stood tall and defied all those know-it-all arm chair general managers by confidently assuring everyone that there were “plenty of reasons to believe that our long-term plan is working.”

It’s now been three years since that bold assertion made by Zduriencik. An assertion that teetered   on arrogance considering the calamity that transpired both on and off the field that season. Nonetheless, it served as a direct response to the cynics who now had 2010 to use as confirmation for their dissension, while providing reason, for those thinking of jumping ship, to stay on board a little while longer.

First, the farm system.

“We’ve got a flock of top-rated prospects on their way to the big club. These include position players Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Carlos Peguero, Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Johermyn Chavez, Greg Halman and Matt Mangini, along with hard-throwing pitchers like Michael Pineda, Blake Beavan, Dan Cortes, Mauricio Robles, Maikel Cleto and Anthony Varvaro. Many of our best prospects are headed for winter ball and the fall instructional league – they’re driven to improve and play at the next level.

Some of these youngsters will develop faster than others, but we’ve got a rich pipeline of talent. Impressive, considering how thin our minor league system was just a couple of years ago. Plus there are more top prospects coming: We have the #2 pick in the 2011 June draft and we continue to scout and sign top international players.”

Now, fourteen “top prospects” and a top draft pick – eventual selection Danny Hultzen – coming down a “rich pipeline” all of whom are “driven to improve and play at the next level” is pretty impressive.  Most every franchise would be lucky to have such talent in their farm system.

Except, today, eight of those top prospects are no longer with the team (Chavez, Halman, Mangini, Pineda, Cortes, Robles, Cleto and Varvaro), one is still in the minors (Peguero), one is dealing with a serious rotator injury (Hultzen), and four are still trying to prove they should stick on a big league roster (Smoak, Ackley, Franklin and Beavan).

Of that group of fourteen, only one has solidified himself as a productive everyday major league player (Seager).

So, the minor league talent hasn’t panned out as Zduriencik projected back in 2010.  No problem. There’s talent on the big league club, right?

“At the big league level, Mariners pitchers tied for the third best ERA in the American League in 2010. Felix Hernandez has fulfilled his potential as a perennial Cy Young candidate. Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Luke French made major strides in 2010. We like our pitching; our staff is young, developing and hungry.

Two young players, catcher Adam Moore and outfielder Michael Saunders, got valuable playing time and impressed scouts around the league. Meanwhile, our four core players – Ichiro, Felix, Guti and Chone Figgins  – are signed to long-term deals.”

This time, Zduriencik names nine major league players, four of whom he specifically labels as “core” players, as well as group of pitchers singled out as essentially young, developing, top flight rotation arms.

And what franchise wouldn’t want that?   Not knowing any better, one would surmise the Mariners were sporting a solid core group of players to build around, two young impressive up-the-middle defenders, and one of the best young rotations in baseball.

Unfortunately, of those nine players named, six are no longer with the team (Vargas, Fister, French, Moore, Ichiro, Figgins), one spends more time on the DL than on the field (Guti), and one is still struggling to show he belongs on a big league roster (Saunders).

Of the four deemed “core” players, only Felix has lived up to the billing.  Regarding those Mariners pitchers who tied for the third best ERA in the American League?  Just Felix remains.

So, what does all this mean?

It means you can crumble up that letter from 2010 and throw it into the recycle bin.  Because all that’s really remaining from all of those “top prospects” and “core” major league players that Zduriencik boasted about is Seager, Felix and, um, well…that’s about it.

Seager and Felix.

It also means that for as much hope and excitement the Mariners want you to feel with the newest wave of top prospects to have reached the big leagues – Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Nick Franklin – the 2010 season and the Zduriencik letter is a yet another stark reminder that prospect rankings are meaningless as it relates to future MLB success.

Because when the 2013 season kicked off, the Mariners started four of the top 30 prospects from 2010 – Montero (4), Ackley (11), Smoak (13) and Saunders (30).

All of whom were collectively ranked higher than the next subsequent catcher/infielder/first baseman/outfielder quartet ranked on that list – Buster Posey (7), Alceides Escobar (12), Logan Morrison (20) and Todd Frazier (43).  A group of players that every GM in baseball today would probably take over the foursome the Mariners had accumulated.

And if we are keeping it real, most every GM in baseball would probably just take Posey over Montero, Ackley, Smoak and Saunders

Which isn’t to say that those four can’t eventually live up to expectations.  Or that Zunino, Miller, Walker, Paxton, or Franklin won’t end up being productive major league players.  Rather, audacious boasting of unproven players will prove foolhardy more often than not, no matter what number precedes a player’s name on some prospect rankings list.

Which is probably why Howard Lincoln talked strictly about baseball operations instead of player evaluations when recently asked his personal thoughts on the current state of the team.  And considering how Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team has seemingly adopted a dormant approach when it comes to expounding on organizational decision making, it’s not really surprising that Lincoln quickly side-stepped the opportunity to offer his opinion regarding the young players on the big league roster.

Or maybe Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team learned their lesson from 2010, and are not prepared to make the same mistake twice.

Because Zduriencik’s 2010 letter – that infamous letter meant to show season ticket holders that the Mariners were, in fact, doing things right despite losing 101 games – now stands as a glaring beacon of irony, warning the baseball world of the dangers that come from prognosticating the future of prospects, especially by a franchise who’s successful return to playing competitive and meaningful baseball hinges on an uncompromising prospect-only rebuild methodology.