Tag Archives: Jerry Dipoto

Seattle Mariners 2025 Offseason Plan

After the Mariners fell one game short of the playoffs in 2023, Cal Raleigh had some choice words for ownership: Go get us players for 2024.

Cal’s request was a bit more of a “where’s the commitment” shade thrown at the front office, but bringing in better players was the general theme.

“We’ve got to commit to winning, we have to commit to going and getting those players you see other teams going out and getting — big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up…we’ve done a great job of growing some players here and within the farm system, but sometimes you’ve got to go out and you have to buy.”

The Mariners seemingly took Raleigh’s words to heart. No, they didn’t go spend $700M on Shohei Ohtani. But President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, and General Manager, Justin Hollander, did go out and acquire a handful of solid players with proven track records.

Jorge Polanco, coming off a 117 wRC+, was acquired from the Twins to take over second base. Mitch Garver was signed away from the division rival Rangers where his 140 wRC+ in ’23 looked to be the perfect fit at designated hitter. Luke Raley, fresh of a career high 129 wRC+, was acquired from the Rays to provide left-handed thump from the outfield, first base, or designated hitter. And in a swap of contracts, the Mariners parted with Robbie Ray and brought back Mitch Haniger to reclaim his spot in right field. Haniger suffered through his second straight injury-plagued season in ’23, but the Mariners hoped an injury-free Haniger would provide offense closer to his last healthy season in ’21 where he posted a 120 wRC+ across 157 games.

The additions didn’t stop with the offense. Dipoto added much needed late inning depth to the bullpen by adding 98 mph heat in the form of Gregory Santos to join fellow leverage relievers Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. The 25-year-old was coming off a season where he posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 66 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched.

Despite a slow start by the offense, the Mariners jumped out to a 10-game lead over the second place Astros in the AL West by the middle of June thanks to the M’s dominant starting pitching. However, persisting offensive struggles up and down the lineup would eventually catch up to the team.

Polanco, Garver and Haniger never got on track, and Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and JP Crawford all struggled for the majority of the season. Even Raleigh struggled for the first three months of the year with an underwhelming .202/.289/.390 and 97 wRC+ through June.

And making matters even worse, Rodriguez, France, and Crawford all ended up missing significant time due to injuries.

By the middle of July, that cushy 10-game lead in mid-June had been surrendered to the Astros despite a starting rotation ranking 1st in ERA (3.36) and 2nd in FIP (3.63) in the American League.

Several in-season moves were made to try and awaken a dormant offense. Among those moves:

May 31: Bench coach and offensive coordinator Brant Brown was fired.
July 30 trade deadline: Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner – two of the top hitters available – were acquired. Arozarena took over LF and Turner replaced Ty France at 1B, who was then DFA’d and traded to the Reds.
August 22: Manager Scott Servais and Director of Hitting Jarret DeHart were given pink slips. Former Mariners players Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over as manager and hitting coach.

After the firings of Servais and DeHart, the offense finally showed life where the team put up a 125 wRC+ over the final two months of the season, a performance good enough to rank 3rd in the MLB over that time. However, it was too little too late as the Mariners fell a game shy of making the playoffs.

At his end of the season presser, Dipoto and Hollander spoke about their realization of the type of adjustments that need to be made in order to have a better suited roster for T-Mobile Park. It wasn’t quite clear what these adjustments were, but the inference seemed to be an offense less reliant on right-side fly ball pull hitters and more focus on contact hitters who can spray the ball from gap to gap.

“We learned where we may be doing things the wrong way and we have to make adjustments,” Dipoto said. “Not just an approach on the field, but in how we put the roster together and maybe in some of the things we’re looking for and in how those things fit in our ballpark – maybe that’s been the greatest lesson for us this year. Hopefully, we’re able to adapt the lessons we’ve learned to building the ’25 team.”

Moments later, however, Dipoto raised a few eyebrows by suggesting any “lessons we’ve learned” may simply come from the players already on the roster.

“We’ve been a good run-scoring offense on the road,” Dipoto said. “I think we can be a good run-scoring offense both at home and on the road with a more balanced approach. … The team has shown that they are capable of doing this – that we don’t need to to go out and revamp our roster. There’s a reason we’ve had a good team for a handful of years now, and it’s because our players are good.”

As most fans know, having a “good team” hasn’t been good enough for the Mariners over the past two seasons. The challenge facing Dipoto and Hollander will be getting a good team back to being a playoff team, and that type of task is rarely solved by relying on the status quo. Changes in player personnel will be needed, especially for a team that will enter the offseason with question marks at third base, second base, and first base.

Of course, any meaningful changes will be dictated by ownership’s willingness to increase payroll. While it has been reported that spending will go up from last year, it is also believed it won’t go up significantly. Most speculation has landed on the front office having about $15M to $20M to spend.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2025 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Logan Evans and LHP Brandyn Garcia to the Cardinals for 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Brendan Donovan, and $12M

The skinny: After falling short of the playoffs in 2024, the Cardinals have decided to undergo a “reset” with a focus on developing their next core group of young players to lead them to playoff contention starting in 2027. Naturally, veteran Nolan Arenado should be available if he is willing to waive his no trade clause, and if any team is willing to take on all – or a good portion of – the remaining $74M owed over the next three years. While no longer the offensive player he once was, Arenado is still a solid hitter who possesses the bat-to-ball skills the Mariners desire. He can also flash the leather at the hot corner with the best of them. Twenty-seven-year-old Brendan Donavan also possesses excellent bat skills and is a strong defender. In return, the Mariners part with a pair of top organizational starting pitchers in No. 10 prospect Logan Evans and No. 16 prospect Brandyn Garcia. Mitch Haniger and his remaining one year and $15.5M is also sent to St. Louis to offset Arenado’s contract.

Trade C/DH Mitch Garver, LF Dominic Canzone, and RHP Hunter Cranton to the Padres for 2B Luis Arraez

The skinny: The Mariners signed Garver last offseason to be their primary designated hitter but after struggling early on to get on track, the Mariners relegated Garver to backup catcher and went with Luke Raley and Justin Turner at designated hitter for the majority of the second half. The Padres acquired Luis Arraez mid-season to fill their need at second base. But Arraez’s poor defense led him to being moved to first base, and then eventually to designated hitter. With the Padres in the market for a catcher and both Arraez and Garver set to make similar salaries in 2025, the stars seemed aligned for the two teams to make a swap to fill each team’s respective needs.

Sign 1B/DH Justin Turner to a 1 year, $8M contract

The skinny: The Mariners traded for Turner at the deadline to fill their first base and designated hitter needs and the 39-year-old responded by producing a slash line of .264/.363/.403, a 126 wRC+, and continued to display above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. At age 40, the question is whether Turner has another productive year left in the tank? The Mariners seemingly believe there’s at least one more productive year as they’ve stated an interest in bringing Turner back for the ’25 season.

Sign LHP Caleb Ferguson to a 1 year, 1.5M contract

The skinny: Caleb Ferguson is coming off a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season where he posted a 4.28 FIP and allowed 1.35 HR/9 with the Yankees, but then a 2.88 FIP and 0.43 HJR/9 after getting traded to the Astros. Ferguson did see his average velo on his four-seamer drop a few ticks to 93.6 mph, but he still ranked well above average in limiting hard contact and missing bats, something the Mariners haven’t had from a southpaw since maybe Arthur Rhodes toed the rubber nearly two decades ago.

Sign C Yasmani Grandel to 1 year, $1M contract

The skinny: The Mariners will need to restock their catching depth behind starter Cal Raleigh and the recently departed Seby Zavala. Grandel no longer wields the bat like he once did, but he is a solid defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff well and is lauded for his leadership and ability to make in game adjustments. It’s possible that Grandel could be had on a minor league deal, but given the dearth of viable catching options behind Raleigh, it may require a MLB deal to ensure the Mariners secure Grandel’s services.

The Wrap

The Mariners, again, find themselves heading into the offseason with the task of putting together an offensive lineup that can match their talented pitching staff. Dipoto and Hollander believed they had accomplished that after focusing much of last year on acquiring hitter’s better skilled at not striking out. That never materialized, though, as the Mariners led the MLB last season with a 26.8% K-rate.

Dipoto and Hollander now claim to know the secret recipe for hitting at T-Mobile Park. Again, it’s uncertain what those exact adjustment are since neither went into specifics. But staying away from strikeouts will likely remain a priority. And with there no longer being a need to hit the ball over the shift, adding more contact hitters would be a good bet.

The first move in our offseason plan is nabbing Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. This is reminiscent of the Mariners acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker where the Mariners not only filled two needs, but also lowered the asking price on Winker by agreeing to take on the contract of Suarez. Assuming Arenado is willing to be traded, the $74M still owed to him over the next three years would have to be figured out for a Mariners ownership unwilling to take on that amount of money. The Rockies are on the hook for $10M of that sum, and another $12M will be deferred to 2038. That would leave the Mariners on the hook for $21M in 2025, $16M in 2026, $15M in 2027 and then $12M in deferred money.

Salary-wise, $52M over three years is probably still too rich for ownership. So to offset Arenado’s contract, the Mariners include Haniger who no longer appears to have a role on the team after the acquisitions of Arozarena and Robles. That would reduce the overall money owed to $36.5M over three years which is about the price ownership was willing to pay for Eugenio Suarez. The Cardinals would also chip in $12M to cover the deferred money owed in 2038.

Arenado may no longer be the yearly all-star and MVP caliber player he once was, but the eight-time all-star is still a fairly productive player. While his power dipped a fair amount in ’24 (.394 slugging, 16 HRs) Arenado still produced a .272 average, a .325 OBP, struck out just 14.5% of the time, and sported an 84.4% contact rate. Arenado can also still provide elite level defense where he was worth +6 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average at the hot corner. That all added up to Arenado being a 3.1 fWAR player last year, and if the Mariners can obtain close to that type of value in each of the next three seasons for $12M per, then they should be all over it.

While Arenado fills the need at third base, the primary target in the trade is Donovan who slashed a .278/.342/.417 with 14 HRs, 34 doubles, and struck out just 13.5% of the time in ’24. Donovan’s contact rate of 86.6% was nearly 10% better than league average. In addition, Donovan is a plus defender who can fill the Mariners second base needs until top prospect Cole Young is ready to be called up. When that happens, the versatile Donovan can move to another position either in the infield or outfield. And with Donovan’s three years of control, the Mariners can take their time with Cole and move him up only when they are certain he is ready.

With the Cardinals undergoing what they call a two-year “reset,” Haniger would be able to provide a year of veteran leadership for what will be a very young lineup in ’25, with the possibility of being a movable piece at the trade deadline. The far more enticing acquisitions for the Cardinals, though, is Mariners’ No. 10 and top pitching prospect, Logan Evans, and No. 16 prospect, pitcher Brandyn Garcia. Both are viewed as future rotation arms about a year away, which perfectly fits the Cardinals competitive time-table.

Evans features a two-seamer that sits mid 90’s and is complimented by a slider that misses bats and an effective cutter against righties. The Mariners toyed with the idea of moving Evans to the bullpen last year so he could come up late in the season and add relief help. But the organization decided to keep him as a starter and the righty responded by going 6-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 22 starts and striking out 102 batters in 105.2 innings for Class AA Arkansas.

Garcia sports three plus pitches including a fastball that can amp up to 98 mph. His other offerings include a sharp cutter and a big sweeping slider. The 6′ 4″ lefty made a combined 27 starts for Class High A Everett and Class AA Arkansas and recorded a 2.01 ERA while striking out 132 batters in 116.1 innings. Some question whether the rotation is where Garcia will be most effective as a major leaguer, but so far Garcia has shown nothing to support a move to the bullpen.

Last season’s “big” free agent signing, Mitch Garver, also appears to be in a bit of positional limbo. The Mariners are banking on Garver bouncing back after producing a .172/.286/.341 and a 30.9% strikeout rate. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Garver regress closer to his career norm, but with Luke Raley now pushed into a first base/designated hitter role against right-handed pitching, and Dipoto eyeing Justin Turner to return to the first base/designated hitter role he played last year, it begs the question as to how Garver will be used in the coming season? If the Mariners are looking to sign Turner – or perhaps Carlos Santana who is also reportedly on Dipoto’s wish list – then Garver would end up being, once again, a very pricey backup catcher.

About a day’s drive south of Seattle, the Padres are also undergoing a similar “where to play him” situation with their second baseman turned first baseman turned designated hitter. The Padres made an in-season trade for Luiz Arraez and plugged the (then) two-time batting champion in at second base. However, Arraez’s defensive struggles forced the Padres to move him to first base and, when those struggles persisted, they consigned him to be their designated hitter.

Arraez finished the year winning his third straight batting title with a .314 average to go along with a .346 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. All of which makes one question why the Padres would entertain trading Arraez? Reportedly, the Padres would like to give Manny Machado more time at designated hitter and wouldn’t be able to do so with Arraez entrenched at that spot. Additionally, the Padres are not fully convinced that Arraez – a singles and doubles hitter – is who they want occupying a power position.

Garver would help fill the Padres catching needs where Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz are both free agents, and returning catcher Luis Campusano (.227/.281/.361) looks more like a part-time player rather than someone capable of everyday duty. When not catching, Garver could also provide time at designated hitter and take a few innings at first base, if needed.

Of course, any interest in Garver from the Padres would hinge on the belief that 2024 was just an offensive outlier. A .216 BABIP would suggest a certain amount of bad luck was at play. And there have been comments from around the league – most recently by Teoscar Hernandez – about an unidentifiable uncomfortableness when hitting at T-Mobile Park. A change of scenery for Garver could result in a return to more career-type production, much like was the case for Hernandez.

With the Padres also looking for a left fielder, the Mariners part with Dominic Canzone who has shown flashes of offensive & defensive upside but just hasn’t had the opportunity to establish himself yet. With the M’s outfield already set for next year, the odds of Canzone finding more opportunity with the team is slim to none. ZiPS projections has Canzone producing a slightly better than average .242/.299/.415 and a 106 OPS+ across 402 plate appearances in 2025, which could suit the Padres just fine given Canzone is still pre-arbitration. Those saving would allow the Padres to allocate more money to filling their other needs such as shortstop and first base.

The Mariners also include their No. 30 ranked prospect in RHP Hunter Cranton. The 24-year-old made waves during his first taste of professional ball last year by showcasing a 98 mph fastball that hit triple digits. That type of heat resulted in Cranton being ranked by Baseball America as possessing the best arm in the Mariners organization. In a limited action after being drafted in the 3rd round, Cranton pitched to a 3.24 ERA and racked up 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings for Class A Modesto. Cranton is projected as future late inning reliever who shouldn’t require much time in the minors.

For the Mariners, Arraez represents what the team is sorely lacking. The 27-year-old had a 94.1% contact rate and sprayed the ball evenly to all parts of the field (32.7% LF, 37.5% CF, 29.8% RF). Arraez’s high contact rate does come with downside as he rarely strikes out (4.3% K rate in 2024) and walks are far and few between (3.6% BB rate). Additionally, there won’t be much in the longball department either. But Arraez would certainly provide the type of “adjustment” that Dipoto and Hollander are seemingly seeking and – kicking traditionalism out the window – the three-time batting champion could slot in nicely as the Mariners primary designated hitter.

Justin Turner was a player I had hoped the M’s would sign last offseason (as well as Arozarena) so I was quite pleased when Turner (and Arozarena) was acquired at the trade deadline. Not only did he produce, but Turner provided a veteran presence that had been sorely missing since Carlos Santana was let go after 2022. Turner showed to be the type of player Cal Raleigh asked the front office to go get – a “been there, done that” veteran. With both Turner and Dipoto expressing mutual interest in a reunion, it seems quite likely that a deal will get done.

Last season saw Matt Brash and Gregory Santos – two of the team’s top leverage arms – go down with injuries, forcing the Mariners to lean heavily on Andres Munoz in late inning situations. It seemed like Dan Wilson relied on Munoz to save every game down the stretch, creating anxiety among fans that Munoz’s arm would fall off at any moment. With both Brash and Santos expected to be recovered from injuries, the Mariners bullpen shouldn’t require much tinkering prior to opening day. At the same time, however, with Brash and Santos both coming back from injuries, adding one more proven relief arm wouldn’t be the worst idea.

For most of his career, Caleb Ferguson has been one of the better – and underrated – relief arms in baseball. For the first six seasons of his career, Ferguson produced a 3.43 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 10.7 K/9 serving primarily as the Dodgers’ 7^th inning bridge to setup men like Pedro Baez and Blake Treinen. The Yankees acquired Ferguson last year to bolster their bullpen but Ferguson struggled to get on track, posting a 5.13 ERA and 4.29 FIP over his first 42 appearances. Ferguson was then acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline where he regressed closer to his career norms with a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 20 appearances.

With the trade of Garver to the Padres, and Seby Zavala signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox, Cal Raleigh would enter spring training as the only catcher with any substantial MLB experience. The Mariners do have highly rated prospect Harry Ford percolating in the minors, and while Ford might see his first MLB action sometime in ’25, he is probably a year away from any sort of meaningful playing time.

To address this, the Mariners tap Yasmani Grandel to serve as Raleigh’s backup for 2025. The 35-year-old Grandel split time at catcher for the Pirates last year where he slashed an underwhelming .228/.304/.400. But Grandel still showed a solid approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate, and an above average 81.3% contact rate. Additionally, Grandel received praise for his game calling, defense, and the way he handled the pitching staff. For a Mariners team needing just a start or two per week from their backup catcher, Grandel would adequately fill such a role.

All said and told, the above transactions would put the Mariners just over the $160M payroll mark for 2025. According to Roster Resource, the Mariners finished the 2024 season with a $144M payroll so that should fit within budget.

Seattle Mariners 2024 Offseason Plan

Leave a reply

The Seattle Mariners entered the 2023 season picked by most experts to make the playoffs. At season’s end, the M’s fell short of expectations, finishing one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card berth.

President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, fell on the proverbial baseball sword, conceding he didn’t do enough during the offseason to improve the lineup. Of his four main offensive acquisitions – Teoscar Hernandez, AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong, and Tommy La Stella – only Hernandez came close to his expected production and remained with the team for the entire season.

Pollock, acquired to crush left handed pitching, produced a woeful .135/.188/.363 against lefties and was dealt to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline for a player to be named later. The Mariners couldn’t find takers for Wong, .165/.241/.227, or La Stella, .190/.292/.238, and both were released, the latter just 31 games into the season.

While Dipoto was correct that more could have been done, a good share of the blame also rested on a veteran offensive core that failed to show for most of the first half.

Through June, the Mariners’ offense ranked 19^th in all of MLB with an underwhelming 95 wRC+. The likes of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez posted league average or worse offensive numbers that helped contribute to a 38-42 start.

A huge offensive turnaround in July and August (130 wRC+) saw the Mariners sitting atop the AL West as late as September 3. However, with the Mariners in control of their playoff destiny, the offense (95 wRC+), starting pitching (4.69 FIP), and bullpen (4.90 FIP) stalled over the final month resulting in 17 losses across the team’s final 29 games.

As the Mariners head into the offseason, Dipoto has stated the team’s primary objective is to upgrade the offense with hitter’s better skilled at making contact and putting the ball in play. Among all teams in ’23, the Mariners finished with the second most strikeouts and third fewest batted balls put in play. This combination proved detrimental when it came to moving runners into scoring position and driving them in. The front office has stated it will explore both trades and free agents to make this necessary improvement.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2024 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade SP Bryce Miller, OF Jarred Kelenic, and OF Zach DeLoach to the Rays for OF Randy Arozarena and 2B Brandon Lowe

The skinny: The Mariners are looking for offensive upgrades and would love another impact bat to pair with Julio Rodriguez. The Rays need starting pitching help and – as is their yearly tradition – are looking to cut payroll. Here, the Mariners help the Rays out by taking a projected $18M off their books for ’24 with the acquisitions of Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe. In return, the Mariners send the Rays young fireballer Bryce Miller who posted a 3.98 FIP over 25 starts in his rookie campaign, outfielder Jarred Kelenic who produced a .746 OPS, and minor league outfielder Zach DeLoach who slashed a .286/.387/.481 and hit 23 home runs at Class AAA.

Trade SP Emerson Hancock and OF Taylor Trammell to the Twins for OF Max Kepler and C Jair Camargo

The skinny: The Twins find themselves in the unenviable position of wanting to add starting pitching while needing to cut payroll by upwards of $25M. Max Kepler produced one of his best seasons last year by slashing .260/.332/.484 but the $10M he will earn in ’24 makes him a prime candidate to be moved. Former top prospect Emerson Hancock broke into the majors last season where he started three games and produced a 4.09 FIP. Despite being shut down for the year due to a shoulder strain, Hancock is expected to be fully recovered for the ’24 season.

The teams also swap outfielder Taylor Trammell, who is out of options with the Mariners and catcher Jair Camargo, who is likely to be left unprotected by the Twins in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

Sign P Yariel Rodriguez to a 4 year, $35M deal

The skinny: After trading Miller to the Rays, the Mariners add pitching depth by signing Yariel Rodriguez who features a high-90’s fastball and an array of above average secondary pitches. The 26-year-old was a starter during his playing days in Cuba (2015-2020) but after signing to play professionally in Japan with the Chunichi Dragons, Rodriguez was used exclusively in relief where he posted a 10-10 record, 3.03 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 79 relief appearances. Rodriguez joined Team Cuba’s rotation for the ’23 World Baseball Classic, making two starts and posting a 2.45 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings pitched.

Sign 3B Justin Turner to a 2 year, $20M deal

The skinny: Don’t let age fool you. The 38-year-old Justin Turner showed he still has the offensive goods in 2023 by slashing a .276/.345/.455 with 23 tanks and displaying above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. That type of production compelled the veteran to turn down a $13.4M player option for 2024 in hopes of landing a more lucrative multi-year deal. Turner should be able to find that with a Mariners team seeking Turner’s offensive production and skill-set.

Sign C Victor Caratini to a 2 year, $8M deal

The skinny: After producing an .879 OPS over the past two seasons, back-up catcher Tom Murphy finds himself in demand as a free agent. The Mariners would love to bring Murphy back, but retaining his services may prove too expensive and risky given Murphy’s recent struggles with health. Rather than overpay for the 32-year-old, the Mariners pivot and sign Victor Caratini. The switch hitter offers good plate discipline and solid contact skills where he slashed .259/.327/.383 with an 8.4% walk rate and just a 19.9% strikeout rate in 2023. Defensively, Caratini possesses a below average arm but is solid at blocking and framing pitches, and handles a pitching staff well.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with one main goal: to improve the offense by cutting down on strikeouts and improving contact.

While the organization has embraced high strikeouts over the past few years as long as those strikeouts were accompanied by power and impact, Dipoto has decided a new direction is needed after last year’s lineup was plagued by far too many whiffs. The Mariners’ front office has not delved into all the specifics for this philosophical change, but one would have to assume the new MLB rule changes – resulting in more base hits and stolen bases – were a prominent factor. These changes have placed less importance on homeruns and more importance on putting the ball in play.

The first move in this quest is pulling off a blockbuster trade. The 28-year-old Arozarena will be entering the second of four arbitration years and the ever cost-conscience Rays will be faced with paying their star outfielder more than double of what he earned last season, and more over each of the next two seasons. Arozarena produced a .254/.364/.425, 23 home runs, a 126 wRC+ last season, and would slot nicely into left field for the Mariners.

Given the fact the team already has the recently acquired Josh Rojas as well as Dylan Moore capable of handling the keystone, second baseman Brandon Lowe is a bit of a redundant acquisition. But the Mariners need more offense and Lowe represents a potentially significant offensive boost.

Two seasons ago the former all-star put up an .863 OPS and hit 39 homeruns. Since then, however, injuries have slowed Lowe as he’s dealt with neck and lower back issues. When healthy, Lowe is a highly productive hitter, and his 117 wRC+ last year would have been fourth best among the team’s regulars. In terms of where to use Lowe, he could be moved between second base, designated hitter, and perhaps even the outfield where he has previously logged time. Or, more likely, Lowe would become the primary option at second base with Rojas moving into a super utility role. In other words, if the Rays are open to including Lowe in a cost cutting deal, the Mariners shouldn’t be afraid of adding him as there are several ways he can be utilized in a lineup.

The decision to include Kelenic along with Miller could be controversial depending on how one envisions his ongoing development and fit with the team.

Kelenic showed improved production last season but still struggled with contact (69.7%) and continued to be susceptible to off-speed and breaking pitches. Still, the 24-year-old has an all-star player ceiling and Kelenic’s progress last season (.253/.327/.419, 108 wRC+) should be taken as a sign that such upside still exists. The Mariners, though, are in win-now mode and are looking for redemption after a disappointing 2023 season. As such, including Kelenic in a deal for two established hitters is a cost worth paying.

If Miller and Kelenic are not enough, the Mariners could sweeten the deal by adding a prospect like outfielder Zach DeLoach, the team’s 25th ranked prospect. DeLoach has long been favorably looked upon by Mariners coaches, and he should be ready to challenge for MLB playing time after a strong Class AAA season. However, DeLoach has fallen in the Mariners outfield depth rankings where he now finds himself behind Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe, both of whom made their MLB debuts last season and figure to have the inside track for spots on the ’24 roster.

With an emphasis on reducing strikeouts, the Mariners opted not to offer Teoscar Hernandez a qualifying offer as reports from MLB insiders surfaced that Hernandez’s willingness to accept a 1 year, $20.3M qualifying offer was greater than first expected. Seeking better contact skills, Max Kepler presents a much better option than Hernandez. The 30-year-old Kepler has consistently been a league average or better offensive player who possesses good plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Kepler is also solid defensively at all three outfield positions.

To acquire Kepler, the Mariners part with starting pitcher Emerson Hancock who was the No. 31 rated prospect in baseball. Hancock was considered a future top of the rotation starter when drafted, but shoulder injuries early in his career stalled his development and most scouts now peg him as a mid-rotation starter. Much like DeLoach, Hancock has been surpassed by other prospects within the Mariners organization as both Miller and Bryan Woo leap frogged Hancock last year and have established themselves in the Mariners rotation. Hancock did get called up mid season, but shoulder discomfort two innings into his third start shut him down for the remainder of the year. Hancock is expected to be ready for Spring Training and, presuming good health, he should have a strong chance of winning a spot in the Twins rotation.

Taylor Trammell’s skill set – both offensively and defensively – has tantalized Mariners coaches since coming over in trade from the Padres, and the former top prospect did nothing to dampen those expectations in ’23 by putting up another solid year with a .260/.390/.530 at Class AAA. Trammell, however, is out of minor league options and is faced with the task of breaking into a very crowded Mariners outfield. With the Twins faced with losing starting center fielder, Michael A Taylor, to free agency, Trammell could fill a need for the Twins in the upcoming season.

Somewhat similar to Trammell’s situation is Twins prospect Jair Camargo. The 23-year-old is a free-swinger (32.3% strikeout rate in ’23) who carries some pop in his bat (.503 slugging, 21 homeruns for the Twins’ AAA affiliate last year). The Twins would ideally love to keep Camargo in their system, but a 40-man roster crunch may mean the organization will have to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft. After the Mariners designated Bryan O’Keefe for assignment and Luis Torrens elected free agency over being reassigned to the minors, the addition of Camargo would offer the Mariners some sorely needed catching depth.

Perhaps the biggest source of angst last year came at the designate hitter position where fans watched Tommy La Stella, AJ Pollock, and Cooper Hummel contribute to a 52 wRC+ at DH for the first two months of the season. Things stabilized a bit after Mike Ford was called up and got off to a scorching first 30 games with a .944 OPS and 157 wRC+. But over his final 53 games Ford cooled off, producing a .709 OPS, 104 wRC+, and a 34.4% strikeout rate.

Not wanting to repeat this mistake two years in a row, the Mariners tap Justin Turner to become their primary designated hitter. Turner proved Father Time has yet to catch up to him as the veteran tallied an .800 OPS, 23 home runs, and 31 doubles in his 15th season in the bigs. While Turner is no longer an every day option defensively, his glove is still good enough to garner some games at either corner infield position if the need presented itself.

Tom Murphy has been one of the most productive backup catchers in baseball where he owns a .250/.324/.460 over the past four seasons. Murphy has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching where he has a career .262/.352/.489. However, Murphy has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons and will be another year older. Additionally, his propensity for strikeouts no longer fits in with a team now looking for more contact.

That said, solid offensive production at the catcher position is a highly sought after commodity and teams will come calling for Murphy’s services. At age 32, Murphy may see this as his best chance at leveraging a lucrative contract, possibly even as a starter, and most likely will be drawn to the highest contract offered. With Cal Raleigh set to see the majority of games behind the dish, the Mariners probably won’t engage in a bidding war for Murphy’s services, and may view the younger, healthier, and arguably more well-rounded Cartini a better fit to serve as Raleigh’s backup.

The Mariners complete their offseason by signing the intriguing and versatile Yariel Rodriguez. The 26-year-old possesses a fastball that sits mid-90’s along with a cache of solid secondary offerings: slider, curveball, splitter and changeup. Scouts are mixed as to where Rodriguez would best be suited as an MLB pitcher. Some see Rodriguez as an effective fourth or fifth starter. Others see Rodriguez as a dominant set-up man out of a bullpen. Such flexibility works ideally for a Mariners team who, at this point, have yet to know if Marco Gonzales will be healthy enough to reclaim a spot in the starting rotation. If, as expected, Gonzales is healthy, Rodriguez would join Matt Brash and Andres Munoz as late inning leverage arm. However, should Gonzales need more time, the Mariners could slot Rodriguez into the rotation and then have the option of moving him to the bullpen once Gonzales is ready to go.

Seattle Mariners 2023 Offseason Plan

Leave a reply

The only thing that could have gone better for the Mariners in 2022 was figuring out a way to defeat the Houston Astros in the American League Divisional Series playoffs. And let’s be real, the challenge was figuring out how to beat Yordan Alvarez. Outside of that one gigantic slugging unsolved mystery, the season couldn’t have been scripted any better.

The Mariners finally ended the longest active playoff drought among the four major North American sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA NHL) that had been dogging them since 2001. And in doing so they captured the attention (and hearts?) of fans nationwide. From the play of their charismatic rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez; to stringing together a 14-win streak that catapulted the team from 10 games below .500 in late June to 18 game above .500 at seasons end; to sweeping the Blue Jays out of the playoffs in the 3-game Wild Card series…the Mariners took their faithful on the type of ride last experienced in 1995.

Heading into the offseason, the Mariners will be focused on closing the gap with their AL West champion rivals, who finished 16 games ahead of them in the standings and swept them in the ALDS en route to winning their second World Series title in the past six seasons. To help accomplish that feat, the Mariners will need to lengthen their lineup and add another high leverage arm, specifically a left-hander. As was exposed during the playoffs, the Mariners far too often struggled to manufacture runs from the bottom half of their lineup which, in turn, caused the top part of their order to rely too heavily on the long ball. And not having that go-to lefty in their stable of hard throwing arms to come in and face someone in a high leverage moment like, oh, say…Alvarez in the 9th? Yeah.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2023 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Sign OF Brandon Nimmo to a 5 year/$120M contract

The M’s need to add offense and corner outfield is one place they can do that. While Aaron Judge is available and would look marvelous roaming the T-Mobile outfield grass, the idea of the Mariners adding another $300M+ contract to their payroll is simply not going to happen. Not when the M’s will surely be looking to lock up several more of their notable young players like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Ty France.

As great as Judge is, Brandon Nimmo arguably represents the type of hitter the M’s value and need most: patient and disciplined, high on-base abilities, and good bat-to-ball skills. Yes, Nimmo isn’t going to provide the kind of power someone like Judge will but the Mariners already have power with the likes of Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Julio, and even France. Rather, Nimmo’s value for the Mariners is his ability to put the ball in play and get on base (.384 OBP average over the past three seasons), a component sorely lacking from the team’s offense last year. In 2022, Nimmo slashed .274/.367/.433, which was considered a “down” year for him. Over the prior two seasons, Nimmo averaged a .288/.402/.454. Again, that’s a .402 on base average! His 5.4 fWAR would have led the team, and Nimmo’s 134 wRC+ would have been just below Julio’s 146. As a bonus, Nimmo is also a solid defender who can play all three outfield positions.

Sign LHP Andrew Chafin to a 2 year/$20M contract

The Mariners boasted one of the best bullpens in the American League last season, but the one weakness within their formidable cache of arms was the absence of a reliable left-handed reliever. Anthony Misiewicz started the year as the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, but was eventually demoted to the minors and then traded to Kansas City for cash. Tommy Milone and Ryan Borucki each tried to fill the void but neither were successful. The Mariners acquired Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline – who was coming off the IL for a torn flexor tendon – hoping he could transition from starter to reliever. Although Boyd showed better by posting a 1.35 ERA and 3.19 FIP, he was used sparingly (trust? health?) by manager Scott Servais.

With Boyd now a free agent and reportedly looking for a rotation job, the Mariners find themselves again seeking a proven left-hander for their pen. Veteran Andrew Chafin has been one of the better left-handed relievers throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, Chafin has averaged a 2.59 ERA and 3.14 FIP including a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP with the Tigers last year. Chafin doesn’t have the same velocity (91-92 mph) as fellow free agent lefty Taylor Rogers (95-96 mph) so it’s possible the Mariners could choose to go after the better power arm. But Chafin’s ability to tunnel his sinker/slider combo results in missing bats (87^th percentile) and limiting hard contact (81^st percentile). Additionally, Chafin keeps the ball on the ground where he produced a 51.3% ground ball rate in 2022 and has a 50.9% ground ball rate for his career. Perhaps most important, Chafin rocks an epic 80’s mustache. Done deal.

Trade RHP Chris Flexen, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Emerson Hancock, and SS Michael Arroyo to the Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds

Since the end of the season, the Mariners and Mitch Haniger have publicly stated their mutual desire to work out a new contract to keep the veteran outfielder in Seattle for the 2023 season and beyond. However, statements by President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto indicating Haniger has “earned the right” to explore free agency throws into question whether the right fielder will be returning. One would think that if the mutual interest was as strong as both sides have presented it to be, then a deal would have been completed by now. Or, at the least, there would be reports that the two sides were working on a new agreement. However, it appears both sides are exploring other options first.

Should Haniger sign elsewhere, a second outfielder will need to be acquired, and the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds should be near the top of the list. The Mariners looked into trading for Reynolds at the 2021 trade deadline but those talks quickly ended after the Pirates insisted on Julio being included in any potential deal. Reynolds’ 2022 numbers were not quite at the level of last season when he produced a .912 OPS and was worth 6.1 fWAR. But they were still solid ( 807 OPS, 2.9 fWAR) and with three seasons of team control left, the price will still be high to acquire the outfielder’s services.

With the Pirates reportedly seeking starting pitching help, the Mariners have the rotation pieces that should be able to meet that need: Chris Flexen and Emerson Hancock. Flexen is a solid mid-rotation starter who is durable, eats innings, and can immediately slot into the starting rotation. Since signing with Seattle two seasons ago, Flexen has averaged a 3.66 ERA and 4.15 FIP.

Hancock, the Mariners No. 2 organizational prospect as well as top pitching prospect, possesses top-of-the rotation stuff. Hancock was the 6th player chosen in the 2020 draft and entered 2021 as the No. 57 ranked prospect in all of baseball. Early arm issues limited Hancock to just 12 games in 2021 causing him to fall off several top prospect lists. However, with those arm issues resolved in 2022, Hancock was back to form and posted a 3.75 ERA in 21 games at Class AA. Hancock is projected to join the Mariners rotation some time in 2023.

In addition to Flexen and Hancock, the Mariners include outfielder Jarred Kelenic, the former No. 4 MLB prospect. Kelenic has yet to establish himself at the MLB level, but at the young age of 23 and just 147 MLB games under his belt, the Mariners believe it is just a matter of needing a bit more time at the MLB level before Kelenic starts to fulfill his lofty projections. Kelenic could turn the corner next season, or it may not be until 2024. Although the Mariners still believe in Kelenic, the team is firmly in “win-now” mode and one has to question how long the organization can afford to wait? Finishing at 62-100 last season, the Pirates are still a few seasons away from being playoff contenders. Kelenic would be able to step right into the everyday lineup – joining fellow youngsters Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Calvin Mitchel – and continue his development while not being faced with the pressure of having to produce immediately.

Lastly, the Mariners include their No. 12 organizational prospect, Michael Arroyo, who was one of the top shortstops of this past international signing period. Arroyo was considered one of the more advanced pure hitters of his class and projects as a future five-tool player with above average power and hit skills. The Mariners thought highly enough of Arroyo to sign him for $1.3M and in his first taste of professional ball, the 17-year old did not disappoint, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, 2 triples and 4 home runs in the Dominican Summer League.

Trade RHP Diego Castillo and OF Jesse Winker to the New York Yankees for 2B Gleyber Torres and RHP Randy Vasquez

With Adam Frazier leaving as a free agent, second base becomes another position where the Mariners can upgrade offensively. While much speculation has been about the Mariners signing Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaert or Dansby Swanson to play shortstop and then moving JP Crawford to 2B, the reality is that the Mariners are unlikely to offer the required 7 to 9 year contract to land any of the four aforementioned players. Rather, the Mariners will look to acquire a second baseman from a team that has a surplus at that position. One of those teams is the New York Yankees who have Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and top prospect Oswald Peraza all capable of playing second base.

Torres has yet to live up to the high expectations that made him the No. 6 MLB prospect entering 2018. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2019 with a .278/.337/.535 and 38 home runs, causing many to believe he was the next great Yankees superstar. But since then, Torres has averaged a .256/.325/.406 and just 12 home runs. Most of the issues and frustrations regarding Torres since that breakout season have revolved around swing and miss tendencies resulting in high strikeouts and low walks. For all his talent and ability, Torres just hasn’t been able to find consistency with the bat. Reportedly, the Yankees were prepared to move on from Torres at last year’s trade deadline with a deal in place to acquire Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. For whatever reason, the Yankees nixed the deal at the last moment.

Despite the concerns, however, there is still much to like about Torres. First is the .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs he produced in 2022, which would represent a significant upgrade over the .238/.301/.311 and three home runs the Mariners received from Adam Frazier. Additionally, Torres showed significant improvement in hitting the ball hard last season – evidenced by an average exit velocity, hard hit%, and barrel% that ranked in the 75^th percentile or better. Exit velocity has become the golden measurement in today’s game when projecting future outcomes, and Torres’ average exit velocity last season was 90.4 mph which was above the major league average. Lastly, Torres produced a 4.1 UZR and 9 defensive runs saved playing the key stone last year. With the shift going away in 2023, the Mariners have stated a priority on acquiring a second baseman who has the range and defensive chops of a shortstop. Torres, whose natural position is shortstop, seemingly fits that requirement.

The Mariners also receive right-handed pitcher Randy Vazquez, New York’s No. 14 organizational prospect. Projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, Vasquez possesses a mid-90’s fastball along with a curveball whose high spin rate results in wicked drop. He also utilizes a lower arm slot that results in above average vertical break. That latter quality is something the Mariners would seemingly love to get their hands on and tinker with, much like how they did with Paul Sewald where they lowered his arm slot to increase his vertical approach angle. Vasquez lacks experience pitching in the upper minors, having logged just 21.1 innings at Class AA. But the Mariners have the depth to bring along Vasquez as they did with Matt Brash last year – spending the first few months in the minors transitioning him to a reliever, and then moving him up into their bullpen by mid-season.

With the Yankees looking to bolster their bullpen while also seeking a left fielder, the Mariners part with Diego Castillo and Jesse Winker. Castillo still possesses above average stuff, and produced solid numbers last season with a 3.64 ERA and 3.68 FIP over 59 appearances. However, Castillo never seemed to fully settle in with the Mariners “closer by committee” scheme where the team deployed their high leverage relievers anywhere from the 7^th to 9^th innings depending on matchups. Every so often, Castillo struggled in situations where the game was not necessarily on the line. A switch back to a more defined 8^th inning setup and/or 9^th inning closer role would arguably be a better fit for Castillo.

One of the biggest disappointments for the Mariners last season was Jesse Winker’s sudden drop in offense. Winker still got on base (.344 OBP) and showed high plate discipline (15.4% walk rate), but he struggled to drive the ball. It was a highly unexpected and perplexing turn of events for a player who came to Seattle as a career .288/.385/.504 hitter. The Mariners recently disclosed Winker dealt with neck and knee injuries throughout the season which may explain the sudden fall in production. Having already undergone minor surgeries to address both issues, the Mariners believe Winker’s bat will rebound next year. If that belief holds true, then moving on from Winker may not be the wisest move for a team needing more offense. However, with the spacious Seattle outfield amplifying Winker’s defensive shortcomings last year, the Mariners are looking to improve their left field defense and have stated Winker will see the majority of time at designated hitter, which is counter to the team’s preference of not carrying a full-time designated hitter. With Yankee Stadium being the fifth-smallest outfield in all of baseball, Winker’s defensive flaws would not be as big of a factor.

Trade RHP Prelander Berroa and C Luis Torrens to the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Jake McCarthy

With Jarred Kelenic included in the trade for Bryan Reynolds, the Mariners will need to determine who their fourth outfielder will be. They could stay in-house with Taylor Trammell who has all the tools but is still trying to put it all together at the MLB level. Another option is Jake McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks who finds himself in a log jam of young talented outfielders. Despite not having the same prospect pedigree as others within the Arizona farm system, McCarthy produced an encouraging .283/.342/.427, eight home runs, and 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts in his first extended stint at the MLB level. Despite that, though, the Diamondback will presumably head into 2023 with top prospect Corbin Carroll joining former top prospects Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho in the Arizona outfield. That would leave McCarthy fighting for playing time with another former top prospect, Pavin Smith.

With the Diamondbacks seeking bullpen help in addition to a backup catcher, the Mariners alleviate the outfield bottleneck by sending pitcher Prelander Berroa and catcher Luis Torrens to Arizona for McCarthy. Across three levels in 2022 that ended in Class AA, Berroa posted a 2.86 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings as a starter. His fastball sits mid-90s and touches 99, along with a plus slider. Like many young starting pitchers, Berroa needs to develop a reliable third pitch before landing in a MLB rotation. But his fastball/slider arsenal is considered major league ready. Berroa would probably need a bit of time to transition from starting pitcher to reliever, but by mid-season he could be a highly effective arm out of the Diamondbacks bullpen.

Torrens has logged 181 games primarily as the team’s backup catcher over the past few seasons, but with veteran Tom Murphy expected back in 2023 after missing most of last season to injury, Torrens appears to not have a roster spot for 2023. The Mariners like Torrens’ potential with the bat, and with his defense continuing to improve they could carry three catchers as they have in the past. But with Torrens out of minor league options, the smarter move would be to move Torrens in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with much of the same goals as last year: find a way to lengthen the lineup. The Mariners thought they had accomplished that by adding Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, but underperformance by Frazier and Winker, and yet another injury to Haniger, that cost him most of the season, left the offense far too reliant on the top half of the lineup to score runs.

With Brandon Nimmo and Bryan Reynolds added to the outfield, and Gleyber Torres sliding in at second base, the Mariners add three players who combined for 11 fWAR last season, an 8.7 fWAR upgrade over the three players they will be replacing in Haniger, Winker and Frazier. Additionally, the Mariners significantly boost their on base abilities where Nimmo, Reynolds and Torres averaged a combined .340 OBP in 2022. Nimmo and Reynolds could also be penciled into the top two spots of the lineup thereby pushing both Julio and France down in the order where they would have more opportunities to drive in runs.

The Mariners will go with the same five starting pitchers they ended the season with last year. In a bit of an aberration, the Mariners were able to get through the entire season without a starting pitcher going down with injury. That occurrence should not be counted on this year, and the team will turn to highly regarded prospects Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller in case of injury. The Mariners will also have the option of moving Matt Brash back into the rotation if that need presents itself.

While the bullpen was again a huge reason for the team’s success, the Mariners lacked a steadfast left-handed reliever. The addition Andrew Chafin gives the team that proven high-leverage arm from the left side. Randy Vasquez presents depth and a possible mid-season boost much like how Brash did last year. An argument could be made that one more reliever needs to be added, especially with the trading away of Diego Castillo. But reports are that the Mariners are super high on Isaiah Campbell’s mid-season transition from starter to reliever last year, where after moving to the bullpen Campbell flashed a 95 to 98 mph fastball and an elite slider resulting in a 1.61 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 28 relief innings. Look for Campbell to play a major role in the Mariners bullpen in 2023.

Seattle Mariners 2022 Preview, Offseason Plan

Leave a reply

The Mariners head into the offseason after a Rocky-esque 2021 that saw the young title wannabe’s go the distance and nearly pull off the unthinkable. However, the team could do nothing but watch as their dream of ending a 19-year playoff drought fell short on the last day of the season as the Boston Red Sox clinched the final Wild Card berth with a victory over the Washington Nationals.

After a dramatic 12-4 run to close out the season, the Mariners near playoff miss created a buzz around the greater Puget Sound last felt since 1995. Shortly after the season concluded, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto added to the excitement by declaring the team’s rebuild had turned a corner and ownership would increase payroll “substantially” for 2022.

If that wasn’t enough, Mitch Haniger “turned it up to eleven” with his issuance of a letter in The Players’ Tribune indicating he and his teammates were not only going to “get after it” this offseason in preparation for the 2022 season, but would also be “coming for one of those playoff spots – and more.” Haniger doubled down on the news of an increased payroll by calling for Dipoto and his front office to “go all-in” and “make some impact moves” in order to “put this group over the top.”

After three years of rebuilding, Dipoto has now sounded the bell, signaling it is time to “Win!” with Haniger channeling his inner Mickey with a “What are we waiting for?!”

Of course, the question now looming over T-Mobile Park is how much money constitutes a substantial increase? And what does that mean in terms of players sought and acquired, especially if Dipoto heeds Haniger’s advice and looks to add impact?

The Mariners last substantial impact signing occurred in 2013 when former GM Jack Zduriencik signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year/$240M free agent contract. Nelson Cruz, who was signed the following year, was certainly an impact player. But his 4 year/$57M contract was far more palatable than Cano’s contract.

Dipoto has never been a fan of long-term “mega” contracts due the nature of those type of deals: paying a player a large sum of money well beyond their prime years. As GM of the Angels, Dipoto reportedly did share in owner Arte Moreno’s insistence of signing Albert Pujols at any cost, resulting in a 10 year/$254M contract to secure the services of the star slugger. In addition, one of Dipoto’s top priorities when initiating the Mariners “step back” plan was to get out from under the remaining five years of the Cano deal.

Given that precedent, it would seem unlikely that Dipoto shows much interest in dishing out a 10-year deal for someone like Carlos Correa who is considered the top free agent on the market.

When describing the type of offensive players the Mariners may target this offseason, manager Scott Servais provided some insight:

“I would like to see us add a couple of players. I don’t think it’s just one big fish, so to speak; I think it’s a couple of guys to balance out the lineup, create some length of the lineup. And I think some help in the starting rotation is key.”

Dipoto also dropped a few hints as to how the Mariners may proceed when it comes to the rotation:

“We don’t naturally want to block the young guys from having an opportunity. But I say that, and this year is a great example of don’t plan on five guys running through the season without hitting a bump in the road, either from an effectiveness or an injury perspective. So we’re going to go out, and we’re going to see if we can stabilize or add to our starting rotation.”

Adding a couple productive hitters would be the most obvious area of need for a Mariners offense that finished near the bottom of baseball with a slash line of .226/.303/.385, .688 OPS, and a 93 wRC+.

And with mid-season acquisition Tyler Anderson a free agent, and both the Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi declining their respective options thereby casting Kikuchi off into free agency, adding at least one, but preferably two, starting pitchers should also be near the top of the shopping list.

On the flip side, the Mariners bullpen should be in fine shape as it was one of baseball’s best in 2021, and will see youngster Andres Munoz and veteran closer Brian Giles return from injury and join the team’s cache of hard throwing arms in 2022. An argument exists for another left-handed reliever to either join or replace incumbent southpaw Anthony Misiewicz, although the Mariners could look within the organization for that addition.

With the Mariners declining Kyle Seager’s $20M option, and Kikuchi entering the free agent market, the Mariners project to roll into the offseason with roughly $22M committed to payroll (including pre-arbitration and arbitration eligible players). That payroll figure should open up many interesting options for a team that has said it will explore any and all available avenues to improve the team for 2022 and beyond.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2022 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade INF/OF Dylan Moore and RHP Devin Sweet for 3B Josh Donaldson, LHP Taylor Rogers, and $15M.

Maybe the biggest question among Mariners fans has been whether the team should pick up Kyle Seager’s option for 2022? On one hand, Seager produced career highs in homeruns (35), RBI (101) and provided his usual solid defense with a +3.7 UZR. As a kicker, Seager also hit a robust .308/.372/.643 with runners in scoring position.

On the other hand, Seager produced one of the worst overall offensive outputs in his career with a .212/.285/.438 and a 99 wRC+. A bit more worrisome is the 34-year old struck out a career high 24% of the time, and his contact rate dip to a career low 72.4%, marking the first time in Seager’s career that his ability to make contact fell below the MLB average.

This past week, the Mariners made it official they would not be retaining Seager’s services for one more season, electing instead to allow the long-time Mariner to seek employment elsewhere as a free agent.

The move signals that the front office believes there are better options available at third base to invest $20M into. But who?

The most obvious fit is Kris Bryant who the Mariners reportedly tried to acquire at the trade deadline. Bryant could not only take over at third base, but he has also added left and center field to his defensive resume. Eduardo Escobar is another option. Escobar does not come with the same offensive pop as Bryant, but he would cost less and has the ability to play second base as well. A few of the marque shortstops, such as Correa, Trevor Story or Marcus Semein, have all mentioned at one point they would be willing to move to third base, so the Mariners could look into those options as well.

While all of the aforementioned would upgrade the hot corner, the Mariners best option may be to acquire Josh Donaldson from the Minnesota Twins.

Granted, this could be a bit of a risky move for the Mariners due to the money still owed to the veteran third baseman ($51.5M over the next two years) along with Donaldson’s age (35) and injury history.

The risk, however, could pay off big as the former MVP slashed a .247/.352/.475, hit 26 home runs, and produced a 124 wRC+ in 135 games in 2021. Donaldson also finished in the 92^nd percentile or better in exit velocity, hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, walk rate, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage.

If the Mariners believe Donaldson can continue to stay healthy – as he mostly did this past season – Donaldson would be a huge offensive presence in the middle of the lineup, yet would cost a fraction of what it would take to land one of the available free agents who could produce similar offensive numbers.

And with Donaldson under contract for two more years, he would serve as a perfect stop gap until top prospect Noelvi Marte arrives sometime in 2023.

In addition to Donaldson, the Mariners also snag lefty reliever Taylor Rogers who is due to earn $6.7M in his final year of arbitration. Rogers missed the second half last year due to a finger injury on his throwing hand, but he was quite effective prior to that, producing a 3.35 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 13.2 K/9, and limiting opposing batters to a .247/.280/.370 over 40 appearances. The addition of Rogers would give the Mariners a sorely needed second lefty option, and serve as an upgrade over Anthony Misiewisz who produced so-so results with a 4.61 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.7 K/9, and a .280/.328/.431 against.

In exchange for Donaldson, Rogers, and a kicker of $15M in salary relief, the Mariners send the Twins infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore and minor league pitching prospect Devin Sweet.

Moore, 29, has played every position other than pitcher and catcher for the Mariners. He has teased with his speed/power combo potential, with the Mariners finally believing Moore was tapping into that promise in 2020 when he slashed a .255/.358/.496. But after being given the starting gig at second base for 2021, Moore could not capitalize on the opportunity as he posted a .181/.276/.334 and eventually lost his job to mid-season acquisition Abraham Toro.

While Moore can provide immediate utility, the main attraction for the Twins is Devin Sweet. With a fastball that continues to increase in velocity – currently sitting in the 93-95 mph range – along with a wipeout changeup, the Twins add an intriguing young arm who has turned heads of late as both a starter and reliever. In 2019, Sweet posted a 2.26 ERA over 15 starts at Class A. In 2021, Sweet was promoted to Class AA where as a reliever, Sweet posted a 0.63 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 12 relief appearances.

Trade OF Kyle Lewis and RP Casey Sadler for 2B/OF Whit Merrifield.

If there is one thing that may be more reliable in Kansas City than finding really good barbeque, it is hearing the Royals announce each season that they will not trade Whit Merrifield. Yet, every season, Merrifield’s name comes up in trade discussions.

This past trade deadline saw, again, Merrifield’s name spun through the rumor mill and, most notably, connected to the Mariners. Days before the trade deadline were reports indicating the Mariners were “making a push” to acquire the versatile infielder/outfielder. However, the trade deadline passed with no deal struck between the two teams.

The 2021 all-star finished the season batting .277/.317/.395 with 10 homeruns and 40 stolen bases. In the field, Merrifield saw time at second base and both corner outfield positions where he produced solid defensive marks at three positions, and where he was named a gold glove finalist at second base.

The Mariners attraction to Merrifield is understandable. The life-long Royal is under contract for two more seasons, and brings a skill set valued by Dipoto and his front office: good bat-to-ball skills, ability to hit to all fields, speed, and defensive versatility. And while the Mariners like the upside of Abraham Toro, who they acquired at the trade deadline, Merrifield would offer a clear upgrade at second base while also improving the team’s bench options as Toro would move into a reserve role. The Mariners could also utilize Merrifield in either corner outfield position, thereby affording the team a good deal of lineup flexibility.

The cost to pry Merrifield away from Kansas City would be fairly steep. The Royals are still in a win-now mode, so they will presumably want MLB ready or near ready players in return.

To accommodate this need, the Mariners offer up former top prospect and 2020 Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis as the centerpiece. Lewis’ quick and powerful bat has already resulted in a .258/.343/.450 (.792 OPS) and 22 home runs in just 464 plate appearances over parts of three seasons.

If this were 2019 or 2020, Lewis would surely be off limits for the Mariners. But last season’s injury to Lewis’ knee could change that outlook in the eyes of the Mariners. While Lewis expects to be healthy and ready for the 2022 season, it is unknown how much time Lewis can be expected to play in the field. Most see Lewis’ days in centerfield now over, with his likely destination to be in a corner outfield position with the occasional game in center. At worst, Lewis is a designated hitter who can play an occasional outfield. Lewis most likely will fall somewhere in between, but where that is cannot be known for sure until he is back out on the field playing regularly.

With Ken Giles and Andres Munoz expected to join the bullpen after spending last season rehabbing from injury, the Mariners are able to deal from an area of strength by including reliever Casey Sadler in the package for Merrifield. Relying on a 94 mph cutter and one of the better curveballs in the league, Sadler had a breakout 2021 season where he appeared in 40 games and posted a 0.67 ERA/2.48 FIP and a 0.719 WHIP, including a franchise record 29 consecutive scoreless appearances to close out the season.

It could be possible that the Royals may want a bit more in return, in which case the Mariners could also throw in someone like minor league reliever Will Vest who has an electric arm and some experience pitching at the MLB level. But it’s difficult to imagine that acquiring two players who could immediately slot into the Royals’ lineup and produce, and who are under team control for three (Sadler) and four (Lewis) more years wouldn’t be enough to get the deal done.

Sign SP Max Scherzer to a 3 year/$125M contract.

In an interview with 710 ESPN last September, MLB analyst Jeff Passan offered his take on what the Mariners should do to push them to being a playoff team in 2022:

“Listen, I don’t think they’re going to do this, but is there a better person than Max Scherzer for this team (the Mariners) right now?”

Passon continued:

“If you want to build, to me there’s no better guy to build around than Max Scherzer at this point. You’re not going to be hemmed into a super long-term deal. Yeah, you’re going to have to pay $40 something million dollars a year, which is hefty, but can you imagine a rotation that starts with Scherzer and goes to (Chris) Flexen and continues with Marco Gonzales and then have Logan Gilbert and then you can slowly bring along (George) Kirby and (Emerson) Hancock or whoever else there is? I don’t know, man, I love the idea, and you have the money to go out and do it.”

You know what, Jeff? We love the idea too.

The free agent starting pitching market offers a handful of quality rotation arms such as Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, and Eduardo Rodriguez. However, let’s cut right to the chase. None are aces. None are stoppers.

Conversely, Scherzer is.

Even at age 37, Scherzer has shown no signs of slowing down. He still sits mid 90’s with his fastball, and is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award (his fourth) after posting a 15-4 record, a 2.46 ERA/2.97 FIP, and a 0.864 WHIP.

The Mariners have not had that kind of pitcher leading their starting staff since the days of Randy Johnson. And if Scherzer is on the same path as the Big Unit was at this same stage of his career, then one can expect Scherzer to continue putting up Cy Young caliber for several more years.

Yes, Scherzer will be incredibly pricey. But he will not command the length of contract that other free agent pitchers will. And let’s be real – if you have $125M to spend on a pitcher, would you rather give that to Scherzer over 3 years or someone like Gausman over 6 years? Yeah, us too.

Sign INF/OF Chris Taylor to a 4 year/$60M deal.

After Kyle Lewis was lost for the year with a knee injury, the Mariners went primarily with an outfield of Haniger in right, Jarred Kelenic in center, and a Jake Fraley/Dylan Moore/Jake Bauers/Shed Long/Jose Marmolejos rotation in left. That merry-go-round in left field resulted in an offensive output of ugly proportions: .191/.285/.333 (.617 OPS) and a 76 wRC+.

If the Mariners are serious about the playoffs in 2022, they will have to do something to address that malaise.

Their approach in doing so will require working around the arrival of top prospect Julio Rodriguez who is expected to make his debut sometime around midseason, and will surely be given a good deal of playing time.

With the potential of Rodriguez joining the outfield mix at some point during the season, acquiring an outfielder with positional flexibility would make a great deal of sense. And who better than the player Dipoto traded away and calls “the worst deal I’ve ever made.”

Last season Taylor slashed .254/.344/.438 (.782 OPS) and hit 20 home runs while covering six positions for the Dodgers: second base, shortstop, third base, and all three outfield positions. That production and versatility would be vital as it would allow the Mariners to use Taylor at a number of positions both in the outfield and the infield.

Sign INF/OF Leury Garcia to a 2 year/$10M deal.

With Moore traded to the Twins, the Mariners will need to find his utility replacement. And even if Moore were not traded to the Twins, the Mariners should find his utility replacement.

While most of the attention this offseason will be drawn towards finding upgrades for the starting lineup, the Mariners would be amiss if they failed to give their bench a little love as well. Besides Moore, the Mariners bench last season comprised some combination of Sam Haggerty (.186/.247/.291), Donovan Walton (.206/.254/.365), Bauers (.220/.297/.275) and Marmolejos (.160/.262/.311).

With a far from stellar collection of reserves to pick from, Mariners treat themselves to the versatile Garcia, 30, who hit .267/.335/.376 in 126 games last year for the White Sox while being penciled in at every position except first base, catcher and pitcher.

Resign Tyler Anderson to a 2 year/$12M deal

The Mariners picked up Tyler Anderson at the trade deadline to help stabilize the back end of their rotation after Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield were lost for the season with injuries. Using a spasmodic motion and a variety of different arm angles, Anderson lived up to expectations and more through his first 10 starts, producing a 3.38 ERA/3.92 FIP. However, the wheels would then come off as Anderson allowed 13 earned runs over his final three turns through the rotation. That dreadful number can be mitigated by the fact that the majority of those runs came in one outing against the Angels where Anderson surrendered 9 earned runs over 2.0 innings. Absent that one outing, Anderson posted a solid 3.68 ERA for the Mariners.

There isn’t much upside (or mystery) when it comes Anderson. He is who he is: a savvy veteran pitcher who does not miss many bats, but does not walk a lot of people, and has the ability to keep his team in a game for five to six innings each time out. For any team looking to fill out the back end of their rotation, Anderson is that perfect fit. And with Servais indicating he would like Anderson to come back, and Anderson stating he would like to return, it seems like the stars are aligned on this one.

The 26-Man

Infield: 1B: Ty France; 2B Whit Merrifield; SS: JP Crawford; 3B Josh Donaldson; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Chris Taylor; CF Jarred Kelenic; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Luis Torrens

Bench: C Cal Raleigh; INF/OF Leury Garcia; OF Jake Fraley; INF Abraham Toro

Rotation: SP1 Max Scherzer; SP2 Marco Gonzales; SP3 Chris Flexen; SP4 Logan Gilbert; SP5 Tyler Anderson

Bullpen: LHP Taylor Rogers; LHP Anthony Misiewicz; RHP Erik Swanson; RHP Andres Munoz; RHP Drew Steckenrider; RHP Paul Sewald; RHP Diego Castillo; RHP Ken Giles

The Wrap

The goal for the 2022 season seems to be unanimous: find a way to lengthen the lineup. “Top heavy” would be an understatement when describing the Mariner’s batting lineup in 2021 where the majority of the team’s runs came by way of their first four hitters – Crawford, France, Seager, and Haniger. In fact, outside of those four players, only one other Mariner with at least least 300 plate appearances tallied a 100 wRC+ or better (Luis Torrens).

If the Mariners intend to play meaningful games in October, then expanding their offensive attack will be a must. Far too often last year did the Mariners have to wait for the top of the order to roll back around for there to be any chance at putting some runs on the scoreboard. By adding Donaldson, Merrifield and Taylor, the Mariners do just that, allowing Servais to fill out a lineup card that will contain six proven run producers. And with the expected progression of Kelenic and perhaps even Torrens, the lineup has the potential to get even longer.

In addition, Taylor, Merrifield, and Garcia will provide the Mariners a great deal of positional flexibility. Having a multitude of players who can play several positions will not only provide the Mariners the advantage of being better able to mix and match their lineups, but also make more frequent in-game switches and be able to more easily cover positions when injuries occur. On the pitching side of things, the Mariners return just three regular starters in Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, and Logan Gilbert, with the latter of the three being the only one who has the ceiling of a true top of the rotation starter. Expecting Gilbert to reach the ceiling on a consistent basis in 2022 may be a bit of a stretch. The addition of Scherzer adds a bona fide ace to the pitching staff while retaining Anderson shores up the back end of the rotation. Scherzer and Anderson also create pitching depth as they allow the Mariners to start the year with Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield in Tacoma. A bullpen that was one of the best in baseball will return most all of their top arms from 2021. However – and with apologies to Hector Santiago and “rosin gate” – the one missing ingredient from the relief corp was a reliable second lefthander to pair with Misiewicz. The addition of Taylor Rogers fills that need.

The Mariners Have An Outfielder Problem. And It’s Not Ichiro.

Leave a reply

The Mariners find themselves with an outfielder problem.

And despite the passionate opinion of a vocal segment of fans, no, it’s not Ichiro.

After being called up from Tacoma at the end of April last year to fill in for the injured Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel introduced himself to opposing pitchers by blistering the baseball to the tune of .348/.405/.489 in his first 55 games. However, Gamel finished out the remainder of his 2017 season by slashing a sub par .219/.255/.354 over the final 77 contests.

Ostensibly, the Mariners hoped that their projected starting left fielder for 2018 would shake off that 77 game slump in spring training and start the new season closer to how he began it in 2017. However, that did not happen as Gamel missed most all of spring training (and the first two weeks of the regular season) due to a right oblique strain suffered at the beginning of March.

After five weeks on the disabled list, Gamel returned April 18 but the results, so far, have been more of how he ended last year.

In his nine games since returning to the starting lineup, Gamel is slashing a lowly .125/.192/.250 with a .198 wOBA, 22 wRC+, and a -0.2 WAR.

Of course, one must point out the fact this is just a sample size of 24 at-bats in 2018. But when added to that 77 game slash line of .219/.255/.354. (.271 wOBA and a 68 wRC+ during that second half of play) the sample size becomes much more worrisome.

Making matters worse, Gamel’s continuing struggles seem to be affecting how the Mariners are managing their 25-man roster.

With Gamel’s injury, the Mariners brought Ichiro back on a near league-minimum one year deal to temporarily serve as a fill-in. As anyone who has spent any amount of time on social media can tell you, the signing of Ichiro caused much skepticism among certain fans.

That skepticism quickly turned to anger last week when the Mariners decided to demote Gamel’s platoon partner, Guillermo Heredia, along with his .968 OPS, to Tacoma in favor of keeping Ichiro with team.

The Mariners rationalized the move by explaining how the abundance of right-handed starters coming up over the next 10 games would limit Heredia’s playing time.

In baseball reasoning, the move made some sense.

However, while the initial plan was for Ichiro to platoon with Heredia in left field until Gamel returned, at which point the Mariners would then provide Ichiro his walking papers, Gamel’s continuing struggles – at least in part – seem to be causing the Mariners some reluctance to cut ties with the future Hall of Famer.

Ichiro is slashing just a .250/.289/.250 in 38 plate appearances in 2018, but over his last 20 at-bats Ichiro is hitting .300 with a .364 OBP, which is akin to what he produced in the second half of last season when he slashed a .299/.384/.379 with a 108 wRC+.

Although the Mariners surely still see the 25-year-old Gamel as the long-term plan in left field, complicating matters is the fact that at some point Jerry Dipoto is going to have to decide whether continuing to pencil the struggling Gamel into the everyday lineup is not just in Gamel’s best interests, but the Mariners’ best interests as well.

And if Dipoto does choose to, say, send Gamel down to Tacoma to work on his swing much like he did with Mike Zunino last season, the Mariners will need a left-handed hitting outfielder to pair with Heredia.

Hence, Ichiro still being on the roster as insurance.

The wild card factor in all of this comes in the form of the all-star and four-time MVP candidate the Mariners have percolating down in the Rainiers outfield.

Before suffering a series of injuries last season that sidelined him for roughly three months, Jayson Werth was slashing a .262/.367/.446 (.814 OPS) as the everyday left fielder for the Washington Nationals.

Despite being 38 years of age, the Mariners are hoping there is still some of that production left in Werth’s bat shown last season.

With Gamel laboring, Ichiro seemingly on borrowed time, and Heredia not yet showing his is capable of playing every day, it would not be a surprise to see the right-handed hitting Werth eventually up with the Mariners as their everyday starter in left field.

One would surmise that Heredia would then serve as the team’s fourth outfelder, with Ichrio being released and Gamel demoted to Tacoma.

But, then again, if Werth is playing everyday, the Mariners may elect to have both Gamel and Heredia getting everyday at-bats in Tacoma rather than having either one sitting on the bench with the big league club.

And if that ended up being the case, one shouldn’t be surprised to still find Ichiro lingering on the roster serving as Werth’s back-up.

Mariners Benefitting from a “Good Enough” Rotation, and a Resilient Bullpen

Leave a reply

After taking two of three games from the Kansas City Royals, the Seattle Mariners find themselves with a 6-4 record and off to their best start through the first 10 games of a season since 2014 where they also began the year 6-4.

The Mariners’ solid start to the 2018 season has them already four games better than this point last year, which saw the team struggle out of the gate with a 2-8 record.

So, what has been the difference between this year and last?

One could point to the offense, where the Mariners are averaging 4.4 runs scored per game, an increase from the 3.8 runs the team averaged last year over their first 10 contests.

The Mariners have also shown to be one of the better defensive units in the league, where their team UZR of 0.3 ranks 5th best in the American League, and their +6 DRS ranks 3rd best.

There is also the fact that, unlike last season, the Mariners did not have the daunting challenge of facing the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros in seven of their first ten games.

While all of the above are factors, the biggest reason for the Mariners early season success has been their pitching.

Specifically, the ability of the rotation to hand the ball off to the bullpen with a lead, and the bullpen’s ability to, in turn, protect the lead and preserve the win.

Such an ability has been the plan GM Jerry Dipoto repeatedly talked about since the beginning of the offseason: to have a rotation good enough to get through a lineup two or three times, and then let the Mariners’ power bullpen take things from there.

And in the early going, the plan is working.

Mariners starters have pitched five or more innings seven times this season. In all seven games, the starter has been pulled with the game tied or with the Mariners in the lead. Only once has the bullpen given up the lead.

In other words, the Mariners are 6-1 when their starting pitcher goes at least five innings and leaves with the game tied or with the Mariners leading.

Compare that to the start of last season where the starting rotation was able to pitch five or more innings in all 10 games to start the year. In seven of those games, the bullpen was called upon either with the game tied or with the Mariners ahead. However, unlike what has occurred this season, the bullpen coughed up the lead in five of those seven games.

In other words, last season the Mariners went 2-5 when their starting pitcher went at least five innings and left the game tied or with the Mariners leading.

Of course, that is not to say the Mariners bullpen has been lights out this year. Their ERA (4.04) ranks eighth in the league, while their FIP (3.87) and WAR (0.3) both place 10^th in the league.

Clearly, the bullpen is giving up runs here and there. The difference is that while they do give up a few runs, the Mariners bullpen has shown the resiliency to not give up the go ahead run(s) when the game is late and close.

The Mariners bullpen has been the beneficiary of a “bend but don’t break” strategy that has seen their relievers progressively diminish hitters in the 7-9 innings.

To illustrate, the Mariners are allowing a .317 batting average in the 6^th inning. That average falls to .279 in the 7^th inning, and to .237 in the 8^th inning.

In the 9^th inning, with the electric Edwin Diaz closing things out, opponents are hitting just a miniscule 0.83.

Overall, in innings 7-9, Mariners pitchers have tossed 27 innings, are allowing just a .219 batting average against, have issued just 5 walks, and are producing a 6.40 SO/W ratio.

In high leverage situations, the Mariners are holding opposing batters to a .203 batting average and putting up a 5.00 SO/W ratio.

In late and close situations? A .194 batting average against and a 6.33 SO/W ratio.

With those type of numbers, the Mariners have essentially shorted the game to just six innings in the early going.

Despite the cries and complaints by critics of not adding “impact” to the rotation, or being “cheapskates” by not spending to acquire another middle to back end starter, Dipoto stayed true to his vision of a healthy rotation being good enough, and a talented bullpen able to take the ball and close things out.

Whether or not this early season success is sustainable over the next 152 games is unknown. But so far, the plan is showing to be effective for the Mariners.

The Mariners’ Rotation, Jason A. Churchill, and Quality vs. Impact Starts

Leave a reply

With the Mariners opening up Cactus League play today, much trepidation still exists as to whether or not GM Jerry Dipoto needs to go out and secure another starting pitcher for his rotation.

Since the beginning of the free agent period, Dipoto has repeatedly stated his comfort rolling into 2018 with his current rotation of James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Erasmo Ramirez, and presumably Marco Gonzales. This “stand pat” rhetoric continues to draw the ire of many who believe that by not acquiring another impact pitcher (a #3 starter or better) the Mariners are simply sealing their fate of missing the playoffs for the 17^th year in a row.

While signing a Yu Darvish (update: now signed by the Cubs), Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn certainly would be an upgrade to the rotation, the Mariners believe spending big money on any one of the aforementioned players is not necessary in order to reach their goal of playing meaningful games in October.

Rather, the general thought is that continued advancement by Paxton, a return to health by Hernandez, and full seasons from Leake and Ramirez to go along with a very solid bullpen and a potent offense, the Mariners will have enough fire power to end their playoff drought.

As we detailed in an earlier piece, Dipoto is most likely correct in his rotation assessment (health permitting) given the high quality of his offense, defense and relief corps. Such a standpoint relies on the notion that with increased health will come increased games started. Which, in turn, will result in more quality starts (at least six innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs given up) and thereby leading to more wins.

In other words, while investing a ton of years and dollars into an impact pitcher like Darvish would help the Mariners’ efforts of getting into the playoffs, so too would a mere increase in quality starts from the Mariners’ projected rotation.

One of those who is a steadfast believer of needing such impact starting pitching is Jason Churchill over at Prospect Insider. In a recent article describing what one could expect to receive if the Mariners – heading towards another non-playoff season in 2018 – decided to blow things up and trade off its veterans for prospects, Churchill makes the following conclusory statement:

“Of course, all of the above becomes 100 percent moot if the Mariners are the upstart and end up legitimate contenders in July. But this year it would be a surprise due to a lack of impact additions this winter, and the time to connect the two ends of the hoop is near.”

It was an interesting comment for a couple of reasons. First, it went against one of Churchill’s earlier podcasts where he proposed fixing the Mariners rotation by signing free agent pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Jhouyls Chacin, both of whom would be anything but impact additions. And second, it disregarded the significance (if any) of receiving the type of expected production from a starting rotation not stricken with catastrophic levels of injuries, as was the case last season.

Accordingly, we decided to reach out to Churchill via Twitter to get his take on what a healthy rotation could mean for the Mariners in 2018. What transpired was an interesting tit-for-tat on the subject of quality starts versus impact starts as it relates to the Mariners rotation and their chances of reaching the playoffs.

Quality starts versus impact starts is an important examination because not only will the issue intensify as the remaining top three free agent pitchers – Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn – ostensibly sign with other teams, but the success of the Mariners’ season will hinge greatly on whether the projected rotation can stay healthy and provide the team the type of quality starts that last year’s rotation could not.

Of course, there is great validity of what the addition of a bona fide ace can do for a team looking to get into the playoffs. But there is the danger of falling into the singular mind-set that without the addition of a bona fide ace, the season is destined for failure. And statistics and history both show that such a belief isn’t necessarily true.

What follows is our “conversation” with Churchill on the subject of quality starts versus impact starts, along with annotation to illustrate some of the pros and cons of each side of the argument.

So, without further ado…

Jason Churchill: Of course, all of the above becomes 100 percent moot if the Mariners are the upstart and end up legitimate contenders in July. But this year it would be a surprise due to a lack of impact additions this winter, and the time to connect the two ends of the hoop is near.”

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “Not sure M’s need impact. Rather, just need starts from the projected rotation. 78 wins w/ last year’s staff was a feat. This year’s team is similar to the 2000 squad: great offense, good defense, solid pen. Top four SPs averaged a 4.80 ERA but 29 starts. Result: 92-70 & playoffs.”

Annotation: The gist of the initial comment is to present the question whether adding impact is as necessary as Churchill believes it is. Or, alternatively, would just an increase in mere games started actually be good enough?

The implication here is that adding an impact pitcher like Darvish or Arrieta is not necessary if the Mariners’ projected rotation could consistently take the ball every fifth day and give the team quality outings, something the Mariners did not receive last year due to the rash of injuries to the rotation. In other words, would a rotation of added quality be good enough despite lacking added impact?

The Mariners’ 2000 squad contained just one impact pitcher in Aaron Sele while the remainder of the staff – Paul Abbot, John Halama, Jaime Moyer, and Freddy Garcia – consisted of middle to back end starters. Despite that quintet of starting pitchers producing a combined (and near league average) ERA of 4.64, they tallied 69 quality starts and the team won 92 games buttressed by very good offense, strong defense, and solid relief.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “Look around. What good teams aren’t getting impact for more than 24 starts? I will save you the time: zero is the answer. Including the Twins last year, even though I wouldn’t consider them a good team.”

Annotation: Churchill responds by focusing on what the Mariners lacked last year, which was games started by impact pitchers.

Churchill tosses out the number 24, which is a reference to Paxton’s 24 starts and the inference that the Mariners ace is the only impact starting pitcher on the team. This is an interesting position to take as impact starting pitchers are those normally projected as #3 types or better, which would make Leake, and maybe even Hernandez, part of the impact pitching equation moving forward.

Nevertheless, Churchill’s estimation seems to be that impact starting pitchers are those who project no less than a #2. Which would mean that the only impact starting pitcher available in free agency is Darvish. Perhaps one could make the argument that Arrieta is a #2 starter. However, that is a tenuous position to take considering over the past few years Arrieta has seen his production regress significantly. Any team that signs Arrieta would be wise to do so under the expectation of continued decrease in production, which would make Arrieta no more valuable than Lynn or Cobb.

That aside, Churchill’s main premise here is that last year the Mariners were the only team to receive less than 25 impact starts (again, arguable given who toed the rubber for the Twins and Rockies), and therefore, are not a good team.

Put another way, Churchill is taking the position that “if a team does not receive more than 24 impact starts, then it is not a good team.”

Of course, for a premise to be true, its contraposition also has to be true. All it takes is a quick look around baseball – past and present – to know that the following is a fallacy: “if it is a good team, then it is one that receives more than 24 impact starts.”

Which brings us back to the initial question: Given the Mariners’ offense, defense and bullpen, is a Mariners rotation that provides quality, rather than impact, good enough to lead the team to the playoffs?

Seemingly, Churchill’s answer is “no” based on the limited number of starts by Paxton. Churchill does not seem to give credence to the fact that last year’s rotation received only 68 starts from its projected starters and, as a result, was forced to rely on a bevy of minor league pitchers. Churchill also does not acknowledge that last year was last year and, moving forward, ignores what full seasons from Paxton, Hernandez, Leake, and Ramirez could bring.

Instead, Churchill contends that having just one impact starter does not a good team make. Moreover, unless the Mariners sign Darvish or trade for another #1 or #2 type starter, the Mariners can essentially kiss the post-season goodbye.

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “I’m looking, & see a Mariners staff that lost 90 starts from its projected rotation due to injury. Again, the M’s didnt need to add “impact.” They just need starts from their current rotation with non-impactful league average production. Do that, and the M’s see the playoffs.”

Annotation: The intention here is to highlight the rash of injuries suffered by the rotation and to, again, question the actual need for adding impact pitching by emphasizing how an increase in games started by a mostly quality (i.e. non-impactful) rotation should be enough to propel the Mariners into the playoffs even if the rotation produced roughly league average production.

On the surface, it might a bit of a reach to predict playoffs. However, as mentioned earlier, the Mariners rotation in 2000 contained only one impact starter and the team made out pretty well.

Similarly, in 2002, the Mariners rotation included just one impact starter in Freddy Garcia, and their top five starters averaging a 4.05 ERA that was just slightly lower that the league average ERA of 4.26. Yet, that year’s rotation produced 82 quality starts and the team finished with 93 wins.

Conversely, in 2010, the Mariners rotation presented two of the best impact-starting pitchers in baseball in Hernandez and Cliff Lee. The league average ERA that season was 4.26, and at the July 4 mark the Mariners top five starters – led by Hernandez (3.03) and Lee (2.34) – combined for a 3.55 ERA. However, the Mariners’ record was an underwhelming 34-47 and the team stood 14 games out of first place. As a result, Lee was traded to the Rangers and the Mariners would go on to lose 101 games.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “And no, not ‘great’ offense… A lot of things need to happen that didn’t before in order for that to end up being true. A lot.”

Annotation: Churchill takes issue (serious issue?) with last year’s offense referred to as “great.” Relating the current Mariners offense to the 2000 Mariners offense was not to be taken as exactitude but, rather, metaphorically.

A ballpark estimate, if you will.

Regardless, Churchill appears to have a far more negative take on the Mariners offense. Since no explanations are given, the assumption here is that Churchill is relying on something like runs scored where the Mariners finished seventh in the league. Which, admittedly, is not “great” but still good enough to put them in the same offensive neighborhood as the Red Sox, Twins and Rangers, and better than such wild card contending teams as the Orioles, Angels, Blue Jays and Rays.

While runs scored is an important statistic, it is not necessarily the best lens to look through when trying to determine the true ability and worth of an offense. Uncontrolled dynamics such as park factors (elevation, humidity, playing surface, dimensions etc.) and injuries can affect the totality of runs scored.

As such, a better path to take is to rely on statistics that assess an offense’s ability to create runs rather than just adding up how many runs actually crossed the plate.

In that endeavor, wOBA and wRC+ are better barometers of a team’s offense.

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “In the AL, the M’s finished 5th in wOBA, & 4th in wRC+. Those should only improve w/ the add of Gordon. Not “great?” We can call it “really good” then. Doesn’t change the point the M’s dont need to add “impact.” They need starts (health) from their rotation.”

Annotation: Briefly, wOBA evaluates a player’s overall offensive value or, in other words, how well a player’s offensive ability contributes to scoring runs. Similarly, wRC+ also weighs a player’s ability to create runs. However, it adjusts (or normalizes) for league and park factors. In doing so, wRC+ allows for a more accurate comparison to other players and teams when assessing the ability to create runs.

As noted, the Mariners ability to create and score runs in 2017 was good. How good? In terms of wRC+, better than every team in the league other than the Astros, Yankees and Indians. And in terms of wOBA, it was better than every team other than the Astros, Yankees, Indians and Twins.

Regardless of whether one wants to call that “great” or “really good,” having a top four or five team in run creation mitigates the necessity to field a rotation bursting with impact.

Furthermore, with the addition of Dee Gordon; the continued improvements of Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, and Ben Gamel; a return to health by Guillermo Heredia and Robinson Cano; and a bounce back season by Kyle Seager, those numbers should only improve in 2018.

Commentator A to Mission Mariner: “Even with the rise in dingers ERA in 2000 was a lot different from ERA in 2017. 4.92 average AL ERA 2000, 4.36 in 2017.”

Annotation: At this point, other people are beginning to throw their two cents into the conversation. Here, Commentator A brings up the point that, on average, ERA’s across baseball were much higher in 2000 due to the steroid infused offensive upsurge of that time. And he’s correct. Nonetheless, those Mariners teams from 1999 to 2002 consisted of just one impact pitcher in their respective rotations, yet were still good enough to post slightly better than league average numbers to help their teams produce 90+ win seasons.

Mission Mariner to Commentator A: “That’s the point. In 2000 the rotation produced roughly league average ERA. The current rotation doesn’t need “impact.” It needs starts from it’s projected SPs with around league average production which was a 4.38 ERA last year.”

Annotation: To clarify, the 4.38 ERA was incorrect as that was the combined league average ERA for starting pitchers and relievers in 2017. The average ERA for starting pitchers in 2017 was actually 4.54.

Looking at the projected top four starting pitchers for the 2018 Mariners, one will see that in 2017, Paxton (2.98), Felix (4.36), and Leake (3.92) produced ERAs well under 4.54 while Ramirez ended up just north of the league average at 4.74.

Among the two AL wild card teams, the Twins’ top four starters produced ERAs of 3.28 (Santana), 5.07 (Gibson), 3.89 (Berrios) and 4.50 (Maija) which is not all that far off from the Mariners. The Yankees top four starters were better, but not by a wide margin: 2.98 (Severino), 4.74 (Tanaka), 3.88 (Montgomery), and 3.69 (Sabathia).

The point here is not to contend that the Mariners starting rotation was better than that of the Twins or Yankees, but to simply underline the point that the major advantage gained by the Twins and Yankees’ rotations was games started, not impact.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “No, they did not lose 90 (it’s actually 84) because the rotation was injured. Maybe get that right first and then take a fresh look at it.”

Annotation: Churchill jumps back in and discerns between 90 and 84 games lost to injury. Curiously, there must be importance in Churchill’s mind about a difference of six games or else he would not make it a point to indicate that such a difference warrants a “fresh look.”

However, without Churchill providing any details, whatever point he is trying to make falls moot. Left alone, the difference between 90 and 84 games is a wash, as the overarching point is that whether 90 or 84 games, it was a lot of games. A TON of games. In fact, the Mariners top four projected starting pitchers for 2017 missed a combined 438 games due to injury. That will cripple any team’s chances of making the playoffs.

Commentator B to Churchill: “Um…don’t be a dick.”

Annotation: A different explanation for Churchill’s comment is thrown into the mix. A better explanation than “being a dick” is probably Churchill just trying to be flippant. Clearly, not everyone saw the humor in it.

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “Um, are you really quibbling over +/- a few starts (84 vs 90)? Put another way, the M’s top four projected SPs started a combined 46 games. Increase that number to, say, 110 and the rotation suddenly has a “fresh look” to it.”

Annotation: It seems self-explanatory that had the Mariners top four starters remained healthy, they would have made over twice as many starts and, therefore, most certainly given the Mariners a greater chance to add to their 78 wins.

For example, with 60-70 more quality starts, it is reasonable to believe the Mariners could have picked up, say, eight more wins. If that had been the case, the Mariners would have ended the year with 86 wins and been owners of the second wild card.

Just a few weeks ago, PECOTA came out with their 2018 projections and had the Mariners finishing second in the AL West with a record of 83-79 and missing the playoffs by just one game to the Tampa Bay Rays. One of the driving forces for the Mariners going from 78 wins to 83 wins was just the mere projection of full seasons of from Paxton, Hernandez, Leake and Ramirez. Here, PECOTA projected an average of 26 starts from each starter and a combined 50 quality starts.

Last season, 57% of the games started by Paxton, Hernandez, Leake and Ramirez ended up being quality starts. Over a full season in 2018, that would project to 11 more quality starts (73) than the Mariners received from all 17 starters used in 2017.

Commentator C to Churchill: “You know that’s not what he’s saying.”

Annotation: It’s still unclear whether Churchill’s comment regarding 90 lost starts verses 84 lost starts actually has importance, or if it was just him being pedantic. It is also possible, however, that Churchill is the type that simply becomes hyper-focused on mere technicalities.

Regardless, what is most noteworthy about this comment is the following response it elicits from Churchill.

Churchill to Commentator C: “I have no idea what he’s saying. Sounds like he’s saying it’s a 90-plus win team.”

Annotation: So at this point things begin to get a bit peculiar as Churchill starts throwing out some puzzling stuff.

First is the “I have no idea what he’s saying” comment. Either Churchill is lying, or he is a complete dolt. On four separate occasions, it is stated:

“Not sure M’s need impact. Rather, just need starts from the projected rotation.”
“Again, the M’s didnt need to add “impact.” They just need starts from their current rotation….”
Doesn’t change the point the M’s dont need to add “impact.” They need starts (health) from their rotation.
The current rotation doesn’t need “impact.” It needs starts from it’s projected SPs….”

Given the number of times the subject was stated, it is fairly nonsensical for Churchill to play possum. After all, a handful of casual observers to the discussion understood, so it is hard to believe Churchill was the only person left standing in a complete state of confusion.

Then again, maybe what Churchill was trying to say was that although he understood what was being stated, he simply disagreed. For argument’s sake, that could be a possibility. Most everyone would agree that a full season of Darvish would be a significant improvement to the rotation. However, as previously shown, that also does not mean that full seasons from Paxton, Hernandez, Leake, and Ramirez would also not be a significant improvement to the rotation.

Then there is Churchill’s “90-plus win team” claim. Nowhere is it asserted that this is a 90-plus win team. Churchill is either not paying attention, or is responding while sitting in a pub throwing back a few pints of Guinness.

If it is the latter then, I get it. If not, then it seems Churchill has gone rogue with the truth.

In trying to gauge Churchill’s angle regarding this comment, one explanation could be that he is of the opinion that to obtain the second wild card, it will take 90-plus wins to do so. That could be a valid estimation, and undoubtedly adding someone like Darvish would help in reaching that win total.

However, last year the Twins took the second wild card with just 85 wins, and most 2018 projection systems see the second wild card requiring somewhere between 84-89 wins. In addition, over the past five seasons, only once has a team needed to win more than 90 games to secure the second wild card. Moreover, the Rays, Angels, Twins and Blue Jays will most likely be the teams competing with the Mariners for second wild card, and none of those teams looks to be on the threshold of breaking the 90-win ceiling.

Commentator D to Churchill: “dude you misread that tweet.”

Annotation: Commentator D bring up another valid possibility. Churchill may have just simply misread the comment.

Commentator C to Churchill: “He basically is saying that the planned M’s rotation missed a ton of starts last year and that if they had remained healthy they would have won more games.”

Annotation: Bingo! We have a winner.

Churchill to Commentator C: “LOL. If they were healthier they would have won more games. GENIUS!”

Annotation: Maybe Churchill does not understand that the goal is to actually win more games.

Obviously, adding an impact starting pitcher would help in winning more games. But, as Churchill seemingly admits, so too would a healthy rotation. Which again begs the question: how many more wins would the Mariners have gained by simply having a healthy rotation?

Maybe Churchill’s opinion is that a healthy rotation would not win enough games to secure a playoff berth? Perhaps. However, a decimated-by-injuries rotation nearly made the playoffs last season. So, what if the Mariners had received 25-30 starts each from Paxton, Hernandez, Iwakuma, Smyly & Gallardo?

In other words, what if the Mariners had received a full season of games started by a rotation consisting of one impact pitcher, three #3 pitchers, and a #5 pitcher? Good enough to get the Mariners into the playoffs last year? I think most would agree that it would have been.

How about adding a #3 starter in Alex Cobb? Would Paxton, Hernandez, Cobb, Leake and Ramirez be good enough in 2018? Again, per Churchill, we are talking about a rotation still consisting of just one impact starter.

Then there is the fact that the Astros made a deal this offseason to acquire an impact starter in Gerrit Cole . However, Cole produced a worse ERA (4.26), and was worth the same amount of wins (3.1), as Leake, who is not considered an impact starter.

Mission Mariner to Churchill and Commentator C: “Church knows what I’m saying. He’s just being a bit obstinate. Which is somewhat surprising. No biggie. Everyone is entitled to a bad day.”

Annotation: Time to throw some snark back at Churchill. Given how the issues have been spelled out for him, and the fact others easily clued in on the questions being asked, one can assume Churchill clearly understands. Oddly, though, Churchill is reluctant to address the issue. No counter facts, rebuttals, or explanations. Rather, just a lot of redirection.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “Lol. Literally had no idea what you were trying to say. But go ahead and blame me for it. It had nothing to do with the way you worded it, not at all you were perfect.”

Annotation: Churchill does not take the snark well. Moreover, while his response indicates that he now understands, Churchill still avoids the issue and, instead, decides to take the fallacious path of ad hominem.

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “Given the comments, you seem to be the only one who didn’t understand. Again, the Mariners top 4 projected SPs in ’17 started a combined 46 games. Increase that number to, say, 105-110 starts, & there’s that “impact” you say the M’s didn’t go get. It’s not difficult.”

Annotation: Churchill is kindly reminded that the only person who outwardly voiced any confusion was he while a handful of others seemed to quickly understand the question(s) being presented.

More pertinent to the discusssion, however, is the fact that the Mariners received just 46 combined starts from Paxton, Hernandez, Iwakuma, and Smyly in 2017. The inference, again, being that receiving a significant increase in games started (i.e. health) from the Mariners’ projected rotation in 2018 would – by itself – produce “impact.” (See what was done there?)

In 2017, Paxton made 24 starts, tallied 14 quality starts, and the Mariners won 10 of those quality starts. Hernandez made 16 starts, had seven quality starts, and the team won four of those quality starts. How about Ramirez? He made 11 starts, produced seven quality starts, and the Mariners won three of those quality starts. Leake, you ask? Five starts, four quality starts, and the team winning two of those quality starts.

(Note: For the season, Leake made a combined 31 starts, had 18 quality starts, and his teams won 11 of those quality starts. Compare that to Darvish who made 31 combined starts, tallied 19 quality starts, and his teams won 11 of those quality starts.)

So, what does that all mean?

Combined, that is 56 starts, 38 quality starts, and 19 quality start wins. Over a full season with Paxton, Hernandez, Ramirez and Leake each making 25 starts in the rotation, the Mariners would project 61 quality starts and 33 quality start wins just from their top four starters. That is not only a substantial upgrade over 2017 which would result in a lot more wins, but it would also reduce a great deal of wear and tear on the bullpen.

Commentator E to Mission Mariner: “But the pitching on the roster isn’t good. Hasn’t been good for a few years. If the thought is youre ok with Felix. Paxton. Kuma. Ramirez. Gonzo. Leake. Miranda. And Moore. You have two 3s and a bunch of 4-5s. It’s a big ask for Kuma and felix to last and bounce back.”

Annotation: Commentator E brings up three points of concern: 1) The pitching has not been very good the past few years, 2) The Mariners do not have a #1 starter, and 3) It’s hard to believe that Iwakuma and Felix can stay healthy and bounce back to their respective previous form.

While the concerns are all valid, health (or lack thereof) rather than ability seemingly sits at the epicenter of resolving all three points of worry.

While the pitching has not been very good the past few years, the biggest reason for that has been injuries.

In 2016, Hernandez, Paxton and Taijuan Walker all struggled with injuries. And despite Paxton showing the stuff and makeup of a true #1, his inability to stay off the disabled list has hindered his stature of being a bona fide ace.

As for Iwakuma and Hernandez, the issue of “bouncing back” has less to do with rediscovering their former ability, but more to do with regaining their health. If they can do that, both Iwakuma and Hernandez should still be able to produce solid numbers.

Mission Mariner to Commentator E: “The question is whether the Mariners rotation is good enough? What Church misses on is that rotations don’t require impact 1 thru 5 when there is impact in the pen, the offense, & solid defense. Getting 25+ starts from our 1, two 3s, 4 and 5 will be a huge upgrade.”

Annotation: The point here is that the Mariners have a lot of talent on offense, defense and in the bullpen. As such, would that type of support behind a healthy Mariners rotation be good enough to result in seeing the playoffs in 2018?

Again, over a full season with the Mariners’ top four starters each making 25 starts, the foursome would project 61 quality starts and 33 quality start wins. That nearly matches what all of the Mariners starting pitchers tallied last year, and would certainly prove significant in the win column.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “OK. You’re 100% right. That good enough for you to STOP trying to convince me?”

Annotation: Churchill is amiss in his approach to the interchange. The objective is not for him to be “convinced.” Rather, it is for Churchill to try and “convince” others of his position via fact, proof, or some other form of validation. Or, at the least, to provide some substantiation for why he believes the way he does. Whether one is convinced or not is unimportant. There is no shame in agreeing to disagree.

Unfortunately, Churchill seems to be of the notion that his opinion is unquestionable.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “Also, clearly you do NOT understand what impact means within this conversation. Even if every projected starter made all 32-33 starts, they’d lack impact in the rotation, because they’re a group of 3-5 starters after Paxton.”

Annotation: I guess Churchill did not “see what was done there?” when placing quotation marks around the word impact.

In addition, rather than address the merits of the discussion, Churchill again chooses more ad hominem. Interestingly, however, Churchill’s response presents the exact premise repeatedly expressed indicating why the Mariners current rotation is actually good enough to lead the team to the playoffs if healthy and able to make a full season of starts.

Which brings us to the irony in the entire discord – does Churchill actually understand what impact starting pitching is?

As stated earlier, impact starting pitching is generally considered as #3 type starters or better. Even a quick glance over at Fangraphs and one can find impact starting pitching defined as “being a third starter or better.”

Yet, Churchill presumably is of the position that impact starting pitching is that of a #2 starter or better.

Maybe this is just Churchill’s own personal opinion. Which would make some sense given Churchill’s condition of “within this conversation” thereby suggesting the existence of a different understanding of “impact” beyond the boundaries of this exchange.

If one is to accept the customary understanding of what an impact starting pitcher is, then the Mariners will enter 2018 with arguably three impact starting pitchers in the form of Paxton, Leake and Hernandez. And if one is to believe Ramirez will produce like he did in 2015 when he started 27 games, produced a 3.51 ERA, and averaged roughly six innings per start, then the Mariners will begin the 2018 campaign with possibly four impact starting pitchers in its rotation.

Mission Mariner to Churchill: “Holy Christ, that’s the point. The Mariners don’t need so-called “impact.” They simply need starts (aka health) from their current projected rotation. Not sure how much clearer – or how many more times – it can be stated.”

Annotation: In a nutshell, it is about quality starts versus impact starts.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “You’ve made it very clear you don’t understand what impact starting pitching is. But feel free to dig the hole a little deeper. You know, because you don’t know how to shut the fuck up for your own good.”

Annotation: Some colorful word choices from Churchill. And some projection from Churchill regarding impact starting pitching. But, ultimately, just more ad hominem rather than addressing the merits of the discussion.

Commentator F to Churchill: “Why dont you stop being so tongue in cheek Jason and be a professional and explain to this poor fan exactly what impact pitching is?”

Annotation: Commentator F brings up a very good point. No, not the part about Churchill being a professional. Rather, the idea that if Churchill actually believes there is a non-understanding as to impact pitching, then explain what it is he is trying to convey.

In other words, by providing some facts and reason as to why Churchill believes the Mariners’ rotation needs added impact, the analysis might be found interesting, informative, and actually persuasive. Which, again, should be the desired outcome of any interaction.

Commentator G to Churchill: “Jason I think you have a general idea of the point he’s trying to make. No need to be a dick about it. You’re just being rude and disrespectful.”

Annotation: Churchill’s entire interaction summed up in three short sentences.

Churchill to Mission Mariner: “You’re Blocked. You can’t follow or see @ProspectInsider’s Tweets.”

Annotation: Well, to say the least, being “blocked” by Churchill was a somewhat surprising and disappointing ending. Especially considering that nothing offensive was ever stated.

Nevertheless, it was a stark reminder that people who think their shit don’t stink, do not like to be reminded that their shit actually does stink.

Truth be told, though, one won’t know how the rotation will perform or what the effect an increase in quality starts will have until the season is in full swing.

Yet, if Dipoto stays true to his word and does not add to his current projected rotation, what we do know is that the Mariners starting staff will consist not only of one of the best pitchers in the American League, but a #2 starter who finished seventh in the Cy Young Award just two seasons ago; a #3 starter who produced a 3.92 ERA last year; a #4 starter who owns a 4.25 ERA over 82 career games started; and a #5 starter once considered the #50 rated prospect in all of baseball prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Will that type of rotation be good enough help lead the Mariners to the playoffs? Hard to say.

But impact or not, if health remains on the Mariners side, then no one should be all that surprised if the Mariners find themselves knocking down the door to the playoffs.

I’m pretty sure Dipoto won’t be.

R.A. Dickey Could Be The Pitcher The Mariners Need

Leave a reply

With pitchers and catchers set to report to camp in roughly three weeks, the Mariners continue to keep an eye on the free agent market for the possibility of adding one more pitcher to their starting rotation.

GM Jerry Dipoto has gone on record to say he is “confident” with his current rotation. If that notion holds true, the Mariners will stroll into the 2018 season with James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez occupying the top four rotation positions, with the final spot being filled by Ariel Miranda, Andrew Moore, Marco Gonzales, or Max Povse.

While we have detailed how holding firm on the current state of the rotation could have merit, it is still our opinion that adding one more proven starting pitcher would be the prudent move to make.

Someone who could give the Mariners around 30 starts, close to 200 innings, and not go too far north of a 4.00 ERA would be the ideal candidate.

Certainly any one of the big four – Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – would be capable of meeting such wants. However, with those four pitchers having dealt with recent arm injuries and looking to sign four or five year deals for upwards of $100M or more, making that type of commitment to a 30-somethings pitcher with health concerns is a risky endeavor.

Jaime Garcia is someone whose asking price should be a bit more economical, and he comes close to meeting the criterion after having averaged 28 starts, 164 innings, and a 4.55 ERA over the past two seasons.

However, while a deal for Garcia should probably not exceed two years, Tyler Chatwood’s three-year deal with the Cubs still remains the market bench mark for starting pitching. As a result, the much more experienced Garcia is surely looking for a similar type contract, if not better. A three-year deal might be too much for a soon-to-be 32 year old pitcher who has already undergone the holy trinity of arm surgeries: Tommy John, rotator cuff, and thoracic outlet.

Outside of Garcia, there isn’t much left to choose from. Ostensibly, the Mariners would have to take a flyer on a bounce back candidate such as Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, or even Andrew Cashner. Yet, after enduring the not-so-good Yovanni Gallardo experiment, it would be difficult to see Dipoto dip back into that well again.

But what about R.A. Dickey?

Now, before you go all Jackie Moon on me, consider what the knuckle baller accomplished in 2017.

The 43-year-old Dickey started 31 games and tossed 190.0 innings for an average of 6.12 innings per start. In addition, Dickey produced a solid 4.26 ERA, struck out over twice as many batters than he walked, and kept the ball on the ground 46.9% of the time.

Not bad, right? Well, it gets better.

Digging into his game logs, Dickey managed to pitch at least six innings in 22 of his 31 starts, including seven or more innings in 11 of his starts.

Zoom out even more, and Dickey went at least five innings in 29 of his 31 starts, and allowed four earned runs or less in 26 of his 31 games.

Don’t look now, but that’s the type of return on investment one would expect from Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn.

And it would cost just a fraction of the price. Say, a one-year deal for $10M.

Such reliable production would be a huge stabilizer to a somewhat precarious Mariners rotation.

In addition, it would give Dipoto options, such as moving Ramirez to the bullpen, thereby adding another solid multi-inning reliever to Dipoto’s “wolfpack” relief corps. It would also take some of the pressure off a less experienced arm like Gonzales should he emerge from Spring Training as the fifth starter.

That all said, Dickey has hinted at retiring in order to spend more time with his family. Moreover, even if Dickey did decide to post-pone retirement for another season, would he even consider a team that is over 2,300 miles away from his home in Nashville?

Dickey has stated that any team he decides to play for in 2018 would have to present the “ideal situation” for him and his family. One would have to assume close proximity to Nashville would be a factor. If that were the case, it would be very hard to envision Dickey coming to Seattle.

Then again, Dickey is familiar with the Mariners organization after spending a season with them back in 2008. Perhaps Dickey misses the fresh ocean air and abundance of coffee houses, and would be interested in spending another year in the Pacific Northwest?

I mean, what could be better than riding off into the retirement sunset after having helped lead the Mariners to their first playoff appearance since 2001?

Sounds like it could be a pretty ideal situation for not only Dickey, but the Mariners as well.

Is GM Jerry Dipoto Correct – the Mariners Rotation is Good Enough?

Leave a reply

When it comes to discussions about the most urgent priority for Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners this offseason, it is to upgrade the starting rotation.

Everywhere one looks, and at every corner one turns, there seems to be a universal agreement that finding at least one, and maybe even two, proven starting pitchers is a necessity.

We even wrote about such a need in our offseason plan, advocating for the acquisitions of Julio Teheran and Jaime Garcia.

Nevertheless, for every article or interview informing Mariners fans of the need for rotation help, there sits Dipoto, telling us that the starting staff is more than capable of being successful.

Such was the case earlier this week when Dipoto sat down for an interview on 710 ESPN’s Bob, Groz, & Tom Show. Here, Dipoto described how he was more than “comfortable” heading into the 2018 season with a rotation led by James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and Erasmo Ramirez.

Hearing such indication that there may be no further additions made to the starting rotation, I suddenly sensed pain and outcry as if there had been a great disturbance in the force.

I could feel coldness, despair, and my soul being consumed, as if in the presence of a Dementor.

As I sat there listening, I prayed to the baseball gods that Dipoto would say something – anything- to give fans reassurance that rotation help was on the way.

I waited for Dipoto to cast his petronus and whisk away the suffering and torment.

Nothing.

Instead, an interesting phenomenon took place. As I listened to Dipoto make his case for possibly sticking with the status quo, his words actually began to make some sense.

Blasphemy, you say?

To paraphrase Dipoto, his pitch about the starting rotation went something like this:

“Paxton was one of the best pitchers in the league last year despite the time he missed. Even if he can only give us 24 starts again, that would be more than welcomed production. Hernandez is just a few years removed from garnering Cy Young votes. He just needs to be healthy, and he will be. In addition, he is 32 years old, which is the same age as most of the free agent pitchers coming off recent injuries that our fans want me to dish out a mega contract for. Do all you fans see what I am saying? Leake has been in the league for seven years and consistently ranks in the top 50 for starting pitchers. Again, that is top 50. Do the math here. With 30 teams in baseball, and five starters per team, the math says that Leake ranks in the top third of all starting pitchers. Pretty darn good. And Ramirez? Well, Ramirez is a really sneaky pitcher. I’m not sure what I mean when I say that, but I like sneaky. And for his career, Ramirez has started a ton of games in his career while averaging five plus innings with a sub 4.00 ERA. So, what does this all mean, you ask? Due to the rash of injuries last year, we were forced to rely on minor league arms and we somehow still finished with 78 wins. If Paxton can give us what he gave us last year, Felix gets healthy, and with full seasons from Leake and Ramirez, our rotation should be much improved.”

Okay, I could buy some of that. I mean, looking back at who was toeing the rubber every fifth day, reaching 78 wins was, indeed, quite remarkable. In that regard, getting another season from Paxton like the one he produced last year, in addition to full seasons from Leake and Ramirez, would definitely be a boost.

Then again, a lot of what Dipoto was projecting came across as the glass half full talking. Realistically speaking, no one has any idea what Paxton and Felix are going to bring in terms of health. And, as for Ramirez, he has only one year under his belt as a full time starter, which was back in 2015.

Dipoto would continue on, this time addressing the bullpen. Again, to paraphrase:

“Our bullpen rocks! We have a really deep and versatile pen. We have the league’s best young closer in Diaz. In addition, we were the only team in the league last year to have three relievers with 20 or more holds. Those are really important things because, if you remember what I said earlier, I believe the league is headed towards using a six-man rotation with starters going only five plus innings, and there definitely will be times during the upcoming season that we will utilize that strategy in order to reduce the amount of innings for our starting pitchers.”

I took a moment to let sink in all of what Dipoto was trying to sell.

Without a doubt, Paxton was one of the best pitchers in the AL last season. In 24 starts, he posted a 2.98 ERA, averaged 5.7 innings, 10.3 SO/9, and a 4.22 SO/W. Not to mention a 12-5 record, including six no decisions where he allowed three earned runs or less.

Two years ago King Felix was Cy Young material, finishing seventh in the voting after making 31 starts, tallying over 200 innings pitched, and going 18-9 with a 3.53 ERA. The following season, however, was very un-King like, with Felix making just 25 starts, tossing 153.1 innings, and producing an 11-8 record with a 3.82 ERA. It might be a pipe dream to think Felix can return to his Cy Young ways of two years ago. However, is it all that far-fetched to believe Felix can still take the ball 25 times, average close to six innings per start, and produce a sub 4.00 ERA like he did in 2016?

For his career, Leake has averaged 30 starts, a 3.98 ERA, and 181.0 innings per season. Last season alone, the eighth of his career, was no different as Leake produced a 3.92 ERA and 186.0 innings over 31 games started. Top 50 type numbers? You bet. Moreover, unless Leake suffers his first major injury of his career, there is nothing to indicate that Leake shouldn’t continue to put up similar numbers in 2018.

In 2015, Ramirez served as the #3 starter for the Tampa Bay Rays, making 27 starts, producing a 3.51 ERA and tossing 151.1 innings. Since then, he’s been used mostly as a reliever. However, after being traded to the Mariners last year, Ramirez started 11 games and posted a 3.92 ERA. I’m not quite sure what Dipoto meant when he called Ramirez “sneaky” but perhaps it had something to do with the fact that Ramirez has quietly put together a pretty solid track record as a starting pitcher. In 82 total games started, Ramirez owns a 23-23 record with a 4.25 ERA, and has averaged 5.4 innings per start.

To put that type of production into perspective, Ramirez’s numbers are very equivalent to those of Tyler Chatwood, who is not only five months older than Ramirez, but who also just signed a three year deal with the Cubs for a guaranteed $38M to be their #4 starter.

Okay, so there are some possibilities with the rotation. But what about that “wolfpack” bullpen?

With the addition of Juan Nicasio (2.61 ERA), as well as having David Phelps (3.40 ERA) for an entire season, Dipoto has added two lights out relievers capable of throwing multiple innings. Add them to a bullpen already featuring Nick Vincent (3.20 ERA), James Pazos (3.86 ERA), Tony Zych (2.66 ERA), and closer Diaz (34 saves, 3.27 ERA), Dipoto may very well be correct when he says he has a bullpen capable of chewing up quite a few innings.

If Dipoto has in fact created that “wolfpack” bullpen he keeps talking about, then the need to garner upwards of 200 innings from his starting pitchers is no longer the necessity is has historically been. Rather, solid but reduced production could undoubtedly help allow the rotation to stay healthy which, in turn, would result in a pretty big upgrade over last season’s projected starting five that managed to combine for only 68 starts.

Looking at recent history, receiving the following numbers from the Mariners top four starters doesn’t seem all that unrealistic:

Paxton: 25 starts, 160.0 innings, 2.80 ERA.
Hernandez: 25 starts, 145.0 innings, 3.80 ERA.
Leake: 30 starts, 185.0 innings, 3.90 ERA.
Ramirez: 28 starts, 160.0 innings, 4.20 ERA.

With that, Dipoto would just have to figure out a way to divvy up the remaining 55 starts. Ostensibly, the leading candidates would be Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Andrew Moore.

Miranda is the only one of the aforementioned who has proven he can take the ball every fifth day, as evidence by his 29 starts last season. Granted, he produced an underwhelming 4.90 ERA over those 29 starts, but Miranda was a tale of two pitchers.

For the first three months of the season (17 starts), Miranda went 7-4 with 3.82 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start. However, in his remaining 12 starts, Miranda went 1-3 with a 6.71 ERA, and averaged under five innings per start.

It is difficult to say what the cause was for his second half demise, but a strong possibility is that – due to 2017 being his first full season in the rotation – Miranda simply wore down. Assuming that was the case, Miranda could be looked upon (at the very least) to serve as an effective starter for 20 games.

That would leave 34 starts for Gonzales and Moore. Arguably, 34 games could be too many to leave for a couple of unproven rookies. However, the wild card in this whole thing is Hisashi Iwakuma. If Iwakuma returns in May as projected, he could end up taking the ball 20 times (maybe even more) which would then just leave Gonzales and/or Moore to handle the remaining 15 starts.

Under this hypothetical, the rotation’s season ending stat line regarding games started could end up looking like this:

Paxton: 25 starts
Hernandez: 25 starts
Leake: 30 starts
Ramirez: 28 starts
Iwakuma: 20 starts
Miranda: 20 starts
Gonzales/Moore: 15 starts

To say the least, that is a lot of moving parts. Eight moving parts to be exact.

Nevertheless, it may be more of a reality than people first think, especially when one looks at what the Houston Astros did last season.

The Astros top five pitchers started 28, 25, 23, 22 and 21 games, respectively. Two others started 15 and 12 games, while four more combined to pick up the remaining 16.

The most innings pitched by any starter was Mike Fiers’ 153.1. In addition, as a collective unit, Astros starters averaged about 5.5 innings per start while depending upon a bullpen that – led by Chris Devenski –was capable of pitching multiple innings.

Sounds eerily similar to what Dipoto is talking about, right?

This all said, it wouldn’t surprise to see Dipoto add an “innings eater” to the rotation thereby making much of this kind of a moot point.

However, if he doesn’t, it may be because Dipoto’s foresight regarding the changing nature of rotations and bullpen usage is something the rest of us are not quite capable of envisioning yet.

Let’s not forget that it wasn’t all too long ago the baseball world was blind to the idea of a 9^th inning closer. That is, until Tony LaRussa and Dennis Eckersley came along and showed everyone otherwise, thereby changing bullpen usage over the past three decades.

Perhaps 2018 will be the year starting rotations are transformed for the foreseeable future, with much of the credit for that transformation going to Dipoto.

Mariners Make Mistake by Keeping Seth Smith over Nori Aoki

Leave a reply

Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners made their first substantial off-season moves by picking up Seth Smith’s $7 million option, declining Chris Iannetta’s $4.25 million option, and waiving Nori Aoki, who was immediately claimed by the Houston Astros.

All three players were inconsistent in 2016, with Iannetta and Smith fading badly in the second half, and Aoki taking a full first half before delivering the type of production that was envisioned when initially signed.

Dipoto previously stated that Mike Zunino would be penciled in as the starting catcher for 2017, that he planned on retaining Smith, and that Iannetta’s option was too pricey for a backup catcher. So none of these moves were surprising.

But did Dipoto error by keeping Smith and discarding Aoki?

Both Smith and Aoki fit the mold of Dipoto’s preferred type of offensive player: contact hitters who can control the zone and draw a walk. And both players put up similar numbers, with Smith slashing a .249/.342/.415 in 2016, and Aoki a .283/.349/.388.

However, once getting past the slash line, Aoki begins to distance himself as the more valuable player.

For starters, Aoki is more athletic than Smith, and far more fleet of foot on the bases, both of which are qualities Dipoto favors.

Production-wise, Smith is used primarily against right handed pitching. And in this role, Smith was solid, producing a .256/.351/.431. But against right handed pitching, the switch hitting Aoki was better, slashing a .300/.364/.428.

Aoki is also much better at making contact. In 2016, Aoki put bat-to-ball at a 89.3% clip with a strike-out rate of just 9%. Smith’s contact rate was 79% while striking out 20% of the time.

Turning to defense, neither Aoki or Smith are close to being gold glove caliber players. Yet, as uninspiring as Aoki was on defense, Smith was far worse.

Aoki produced a -8.0 UZR/150 and a -4 DRS in the OF last season, which is not good. But Smith was nearly twice as bad, posting a -16.6 UZR/150 and a -7 DRS.

And then there is that second half drop off in offensive production that taints Smith each and every season. This was a concern of ours way back when Smith was first acquired. This concern has yet to go away.

In 2016, Smith produced a .277/.366/.450 in the first half. In the second half, those numbers plummeted to a .222/.312/.361. In 2015, Smith’s first half numbers were .268/.338/.477. In the second half those numbers dropped to .219/.319/.394. What about 2014 you ask? .283/.387/.508 in the first half, .243/.340/.346 in the second.

For his career, Smith has averaged a .276/.359/.471 in the first half, and a .240/.323/.414 in the second half.

Aoki was the opposite of Smith in 2016, producing an underwhelming .245/.323/.313 in the first half. But after a brief stint in Tacoma, Aoki returned to destroy AL pitching in the second half to the tune of a .339/.390/.500.

This drastic split in 2016 was, for the most part, an anomaly for Aoki as his career first/second half marks are faily even, with a .289/.352/.366 in the first half, and a .289/.353/.414 in the second.

Add all of this up, and Aoki was worth 1.2 fWAR in 2016 while Smith was worth 0.5 fWAR.

Given all of these factors, its hard to imagine the reason for keeping Smith over Aoki, especially since Aoki would have cost less. Perhaps Dipoto did so in order to retain Smith as a trade piece in to fill other needs, much akin to the San Diego Padres picking up Joaquin Benoit’s option last off-season with the intent to trade him.

Smith did hit 16 homeruns last season so, in a league that still values the long ball, Dipoto may feel Smith would appeal more to other teams looking to upgrade their offense.

Dipoto has repeatedly stated that no single transaction should be viewed in isolation. Let’s hope picking up Smith’s option is just the first step in a series of connected future moves to improve the team for 2017.

	Jerry Dipoto And Mar… on A Second Chance At Marcell Ozu…
	Jerry Dipoto And Mar… on Forget Giancarlo Stanton, Mari…
	A Second Chance At M… on Two Trade Possibilites for Nic…
	A Second Chance At M… on Forget Giancarlo Stanton, Mari…
	missionmariner on Seattle Mariners 2015 Preview,…

Mission:Mariner

Seattle Mariners Analysis & Water Cooler Chit Chat

Tag Archives: Jerry Dipoto

Seattle Mariners 2025 Offseason Plan

Seattle Mariners 2024 Offseason Plan

Seattle Mariners 2023 Offseason Plan

Seattle Mariners 2022 Preview, Offseason Plan

The Mariners Have An Outfielder Problem. And It’s Not Ichiro.

Mariners Benefitting from a “Good Enough” Rotation, and a Resilient Bullpen

The Mariners’ Rotation, Jason A. Churchill, and Quality vs. Impact Starts

R.A. Dickey Could Be The Pitcher The Mariners Need

Is GM Jerry Dipoto Correct – the Mariners Rotation is Good Enough?

Mariners Make Mistake by Keeping Seth Smith over Nori Aoki

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: