Tag Archives: Jerry Dipoto

An Early Look at Projecting the 2016 Mariners

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To say the New Year has brought change to the Seattle Mariners would be a drastic understatement.  A flurry of transactions this off-season by GM Jerry Dipoto has resulted in 18 players being removed from the 40-man roster inherited from Jack Zduriencik.  A Mariners squad that went a disappointing 76-86 in 2015 has been reshaped into the type of team Dipoto envisions being playoff caliber.  Gone is a manager predisposed to “old school” thinking rather than advanced analytics. Gone are players deficient in athleticism, defense, and the ability to get on base.  Gone is a starting rotation lacking depth, and a bullpen lacking versatility.

In their places come a slew of new faces, most notably first time manager Scott Servais; starting pitchers Wade Miley and Nate Karns; relievers Steve Cishek and Joaquin Benoit; and position players Adam Lind, Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin, and Chris Iannetta.

It’s been nearly three weeks of inactivity since the surprise December 18th resigning of Hisashi Iwakuma. By all accounts, Dipoto has finished making significant moves this off-season.  The question now is: are the Mariners really improved?

For many, Dipoto’s first off-season with the Mariners comes with skepticism.  No acquisition of a big bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. Nor the addition of a front line starter such as Zach Greinke or David Price.  Instead, fans saw the acquisition of players many were unfamiliar with, and a suspect bullpen becoming even weaker by dealing away Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith.

But acquiring expensive household names was never Dipoto’s plan.  Nor was investing the majority of available payroll into just one big time player. Rather, the plan was to spread the money around in order to assemble a defense better suited to the expanse of Safeco Field, to fashion a roster more athletic and consisting of a productive Plan B in case Plan A did not work out, to lengthen the starting rotation, and construct a more versatile bullpen with arms that had a propensity to miss bats.

And in that sense – at least on paper – Dipoto succeeded.

Martin and his 15.4 UZR/150 from last year should provide gold glove-caliber defense in center field, with Aoki providing plus defense in left field (7.0 UZR/150) and a solid ability to get on base (.353 OBP).  Lind and his .291/.364/.478 over that past three seasons will be a huge upgrade over Logan Morrison at first base.  Iannetta solidifies the catcher position with solid defense, excellent pitch framing abilities, and improved offensive output even if he repeats his .188/.293/.335 from last season. Miley and Karns add two solid starting rotation arms to the mix of Felix Hernandez, Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. And Cishek (2.98 ERA, 77 saves the past three seasons) and Benoit (1.98 ERA, 37 saves the past three seasons) fortify the back of a bullpen that amassed 24 blown saves in 2015.

Even wins above replacement (WAR) projections by Fangraphs’ Depth Charts (combining Steamer and ZiPS) show a marked improvement.  Last season, the Mariners finished with a team WAR of 24.4.  Depth Charts projects a team WAR of 36.1 for 2016, translating to an 84-78 record. The chart below shows positional WAR totals from 2015 and projections for the upcoming season.

C 1B 2B SS 3B LF CF RF DH SP RP
2015 -1.9 -0.7 1.6 2.2 3.9 3.2 1.1 7.4 4.6 8.7 1.1
2016 2.6 1.8 3.5 1.8 3.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 14.6 1.8

As indicated, Depth Charts projects improvements at catcher, first base, second base, center field, starting pitching, and the bullpen.  However, Depth Charts also foresees a slide at left field, right field and designated hitter.  Two interesting things to note is the fairly significant projected drop in WAR in right field and designated hitter, and the fairly significant projected increase in WAR from the starting pitching.

Depth Charts’ projections for Cruz are probably the major contributor for the decrease in WAR in right field and designated hitter where Cruz falls from 4.8 last season to a 1.6 in 2016.  This is surely based on the belief Cruz will spend the majority of time entrenched at designated hitter (546 plate appearances) and far less time in right field (70 plate appearances). Depending on how one views Cruz’s defensive prowess moving forward, keeping him off the field is probably a good thing.  But for the purposes of WAR, the lack of any defensive production at all probably accounts for the slip.  As for the starting rotation, Hernandez (5.0 WAR), Iwakuma (2.9 WAR), and Walker (2.4 WAR) lead a deep rotation that adds Miley (1.9 WAR) and Karns (1.3 WAR).  The wild card in the group is Paxton who is recovering from injury.  If healthy and able to pitch a full season, he most certainly would surpass the 0.8 WAR projected for him.

So, in terms of playoffs, what does this all mean?  Despite the overall team improvement, Depth Charts still has the Mariners finishing second in the division to the Houston Astros (39.7 WAR), and behind the Yankees (41.8 WAR) and Blue Jays (39.0 WAR) for one of the two wild card playoff spots. Does that mean Dipoto should go out and acquire a player like Cespedes and his projected 3.1 WAR?  I’m guessing most fans wouldn’t have a problem adding a player like Cespedes to the mix. But with a 15% margin of error, projecting the Mariners at a 36.1 WAR and the Astros at a 39.7 WAR could be projecting the Mariners at 41.5 WAR (+15%) and the Astros at 34.1 WAR (-15%), or somewhere in between. From an advanced analytics standpoint, a player such as Cespedes may be seen as an unnecessary expense.

Of course, all of this is really guesswork. Depth Charts is just one of many available projection systems. Others like Marcel or PECOTA may have the Mariners faring better or worse.  In addition, projected WAR totals are simply based on past production, and does not account for the myriad of unforeseen variables that can occur over the course of a regular season such as injuries.  But despite the uncertainties with WAR, it still remains a relevant (and fun) tool as every GM constructs their rosters using the same basic principal: utilizing a player’s past production to predict future success.  And if the projections for the players Dipoto has assembled hold fairly true, there’s no reason to believe the Mariners won’t find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt come the end of the season.

Jerry Dipoto And Mariners Setting the Offseason Bar

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If there is one thing we can say about new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, it’s that he has a vision, and he’s not wasting any time turning that vision into a reality.

Fresh off completing his fourth trade of the offseason – acquiring shortstop Luis Sardinas from the Milwaukee Brewers for minor league outfielder Ramon Flores – and sixth overall transaction since the start to free agency on November 2nd, rumors of a possible Mariners-Marlins deal involving outfielder Marcell Ozuna heading to the Mariners in exchange for one of their young starting pitchers – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Roenis Elias or Nathan Karns – is lighting up the hot stove.

Now, we here at Mission Mariner don’t need to go into great detail about our thoughts of an Ozuna acquisition. We championed that idea over a year ago, and then again at last year’s trade deadline.  So it goes without saying that the idea of Ozuna patrolling the outfield is a strongly welcomed one, even if it means parting with Walker.   And before people take to their pitchforks over the thought of trading away Walker, let me just say that yes, Walker is a talent.  And, yes, Walker might be the next coming of Felix Hernandez.  But Ozuna is also a talent, and may be the next Carlos Gomez.  And when it comes to choosing between a future Felix Hernandez or a future Carlos Gomez, one is better off acquiring the player that will be playing every day rather than the player who will play just once every five days.

That said, should an Ozuna deal go down, it would highlight an incredible first month of roster-makeover activity from Dipoto.  It would punctuate a divergence from former GM Jack Zduriencik’s deliberate “wait out the market” approach.  Dipoto’s more aggressive “know what you want and go get it” style has already resulted in the acquisition of nine new players, at least seven of whom figure to be on the 25-man roster.  So far, Dipoto is this year’s A.J. Preller, but with a bit more restraint and pragmatism.  Consider:

In contrast, it was expected for Zduriencik not to get into the offseason game until the December Winter meetings or thereafter.   While this usually had no repercussion if one was targeting a blue chip free agent, it often meant that many of the second and third tier free agents – players often in the Mariners’ targeted price range – would be off the board by then.  This often resulted in ill-advised trades (see the Pineda deal), or signing low risk players who hopefully could provide high rewards (see Jack Cust).

Below is a list of Zduriencik’s first offseason transactions in each of his seven years as GM:

Of course, not all the deals were bad.  Kendrys Morales proved to be a productive hitter, and J.A. Happ provided solid innings as a middle of the rotation arm. The rest? A mixed bag mostly of disappointing returns.

More to the point, however, is the timetable of initial deals in contrast to what we are seeing now with Dipoto.

Zduriencik’s earliest notable offseason deal happened last season with the December 3rd trade of Michael Saunders, just over one month later than Dipoto’s first deal this offseason.  In 2012, it wasn’t until January 23rd – roughly two and one half months later than this year’s first transaction – when Zduriencik made his first notable offseason deal.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, for one, its clear Dipoto has a plan and he is quickly acting upon it.  Zduriencik might have had a plan as well, but, for whatever reason, he did not have the same urgency to put it into motion.  More importantly, though, by getting a jump on the offseason, Dipoto is getting the players he wants.  Conversely, it appeared most often that Zduriencik acquired players after most had already been picked through by the rest of baseball.  This seemingly was the result of Zduriencik choosing to wait out the market and then target players left over who could be signed at a lesser cost.

For seven years, that strategy never reaped much success.

Time will only tell if Dipoto’s “fast and furious” manner will provide the success he is looking for, and the results fans are expecting.  But whatever the outcome, Dipoto’s success or failure will rest with the players he wanted, not with players he didn’t.

And that, if anything, should be a welcomed change.

Offseason Primer:  As the Mariners Plan Ahead for 2016, They Should Look Back to 1999

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With the conclusion of the World Series, the quest to find players who can transform the Mariners into a playoff caliber team is officially under way for new General Manager, Jerry Dipoto. That task won’t be an easy one as Dipoto’s offseason “to-do” list includes finding a first baseman, catcher, left fielder, center fielder, front end starting pitcher, bullpen arm(s), and a closer.

Stepping into such a hot-seat environment is never an ideal beginning.  And it’s not just finding any old players to fill those spots, but, rather, players that will immediately propel the Mariners into late October. Unlike the Jack Zduriencik era, there will be no five-year plan to hide behind for Dipoto. There won’t be extra time afforded to see if prospect A, B and/or C pan out. With an ownership group and fan base expecting immediate results, Dipoto’s worth and effectiveness (and fate) as the Mariners’ GM will be tested without delay.  

But here’s the good news. It can be done. And has been done before.  And, coincidently, with nearly the exact same challenges, and accomplished by a newly hired Mariners GM.

The 1999 season was one that saw the Mariners go a disappointing 78-83, resulting in GM Woody Woodward’s “retirement.” The Mariners headed into the offseason not only needing to fill its GM vacancy, but to address its 25-man roster and, most importantly, deal with Ken Griffey Jr.’s demand to be traded to a team closer to his Florida home. With no GM, numerous roster holes to fill, and the impending loss of Seattle’s franchise icon, the stars were seemingly aligned for a disastrous offseason. 

Enter, Pat GIllick.

Much like Dipoto, Gillick inherited a team full of needs, namely: first base, third base, left field, center field, a top of the rotation starting pitcher, arms for the bullpen, and a closer.

Gillick’s first order of business was to handle the Griffey situation, and he did so by trading the future hall of famer to Cincinnati for centerfielder Mike Cameron, reliever/spot starter Brett Tomko, and minor leaguers Jake Meyer and Antonio Perez.

Gillick then went out and deftly signed a handful of free agents that would meet the rest of the team’s needs for the 2000 season and beyond.  

Gillick signed the sweet swinging John Olerud to play first base, and when the Baltimore Orioles hesitated in signing Aaron Sele, Gillick swooped in and lured the veteran to Seattle to be the ace of the pitching staff.

Gillick continued his mastery with the signings of Mark McLemore to play second base (thereby pushing David Bell to third base), Stan Javier to play left field, and south paw Arthur Rhodes to help bridge the gap to newly acquired closer, Kazuhiro Sasaki.

In one spectacular off-season makeover, Gillick filled four positional needs and revamped his starting rotation and bullpen, all the while creating a deep, versatile, balanced and athletic roster.

Sixteen years later, Dipoto and his staff find themselves facing the same challenges as Gillick, and will endeavor to find similar success. So far, Dipoto has said all the right things by emphasizing pitching and defense, and wanting to make the roster deeper, more athletic, and better suited to Safeco Field.  

As we’ll discuss further in the weeks to follow, the right type of players are available for Dipoto to pull off a 1999/2000 offseason redux. With payroll rumored to remain the same as last season, the $130 million dollar question is whether Dipoto can parlay his talk into productive results?

We will soon find out as Dipoto and company are now on the clock.