Tag Archives: Justin Smoak

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.

Jack Zduriencik And His Baffling Roster Construction

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Usually during this stretch of Spring Training, optimism runs fairly high within me. As I previously wrote about, it’s around this time where I’m habitually stricken with an unchecked case of sanguinity, causing the unabated belief that that the Mariners will most certainly be playoff bound. And simply believing is never enough. Rather, the fervor becomes so prodigious it’s necessary to enlighten everyone within earshot. But as is the normal course of development, the Mariners will tail-spin out of contention, and I will then spend long hours trying to rationalize why another season failed to extend beyond September.

It’s a vicious cycle I fall prey to each year. My own form of personal purgatory. My Sisyphus, if you will.

But this year is different. This year, even after landing one of the top five hitters in all of baseball, I won’t be overcome with such delusions. This year, I’ve been reminded that I’m better than that.

The other day I was browsing through the Mariner’s blog section at the Seattle Times and came across this interesting snippet from a March 10 article regarding first baseman, Justin Smoak:

“But it’s the hitting that will define Smoak, and he knows it. You can’t be a light hitting first baseman. McClendon isn’t asking him to be Prince Fielder type, but he’d settle for Mark Grace….”

The comment was written by Times’ beat writer Ryan Divish, and was in reference to manager Lloyd McClendon’s announcement that Smoak would be his starting first baseman for the 2014 season. It wasn’t clear whether this was something derived from Divish’s own thoughts, or if he was simply paraphrasing McClendon. But considering the dearth of personal opinion found in any of Divish’s reporting, one can pretty much surmise this was born from McClendon himself.

What makes the statement interesting isn’t the fact that McClendon’s expectations for Smoak are no longer of the prototypical power hitting first baseman that GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners have touted Smoak as being since his acquisition from Texas (well, that is interesting, but a discussion for another day). Rather, its McClendon’s temperament and apparent willingness to, instead, settle for Smoak being Mark Grace.

That’s right, settle for Mark Grace.

The same Mark Grace who finished second in the rookie of the year voting in 1988, was a three time all-star, a three time gold glover, a four time MVP candidate, and one of the top hitters in all of baseball during the 1990’s, averaging a slash line of .311/.392/.462 from 1992 to 2001. Call me crazy, but I’m not sure there are many teams today that would look at that type of production as something to settle for.

Now, McClendon’s reconciliation with Smoak has to do with his willingness to trade homeruns for doubles. In fact, a lot more doubles. Forty to forty-five doubles to be exact. But seeing how Smoak’s career high in doubles is 24, as well as the fact he hit only 19 last year, jumping to 40-45 doubles in 2014 would be nothing less than a major achievement. Perhaps even a miracle.

But in the eyes of the Mariners, Grace-like production from Smoak would be settling. And it’s with this one singular verb where clairvoyance materializes, cutting through my haze of romanticism like a Felix Hernandez fastball burning through the night time air. For it’s a stark reminder that much of the Mariners’ success in 2014 teeters on hope and overcoming odds rather than meeting expectations. It’s a memorandum on the fact that although Zduriencik and the Mariners like to tout the possible, the 25-man roster is governed by the plausible.

And since 2009, the “possible” taking precedent over the “plausible” has been the modus operandi of Zduriencik’s roster construction. Whether it has been an undying faith in the progression of the youth, or relying on the rebirth of veterans two or three years past their last productive season, the assemblage of the 25-man roster has consistently been built on the backs of players expected to perform well beyond any sort of reasonableness. And nothing represents the kind of Hail-Mary hopefulness that has long defined Zduriencik’s roster formation than McClendon’s belief that Smoak can be a Grace-like .300/.390/.460, 45 doubles and 20 homerun hitter.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Such an evolution by Smoak is possible, and would pair very nicely with Robinson Cano in the middle of the batting order. And yes, it would be a huge boost for this team.

But so would Corey Hart being able to stay healthy enough to play a decent right field regularly, rookie Abraham Almonte proving to be a solid everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, and veteran pitchers Scott Baker and Randy Wolf regaining their old form and solidifying the middle of the rotation, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker out with injuries for at least the first month of the season.    And, of course, questions still remain whether a bullpen that ranked as one of the worst in 2013 can improve despite losing two of their best arms in Oliver Perez and Stephen Pryor, whether Mike Zunino can show he doesn’t warrant further time in Tacoma, whether Brad Miller can prove he has what it takes defensively to stick at shortstop, and whether Dustin Ackley can continue hitting in 2014 like he did during the second half of 2013.

All of which is possible, but, realistically speaking, not plausible. And if the Mariners hope to make any noise in a tough AL West division, they will need most of these possibilities to become realities. But with Zduriencik choosing to once again lean on untested youth and affordable free agent veterans looking to find the fountain of youth and good health, the results have been less than reassuring so far this spring.

Predictably, Hart and his knees have not shown the ability to play the outfield (or anywhere for that matter) regularly. Almonte’s defense in center field has been so-so while his bat at the top of the order has been meager, producing a .174/.237/.304.  And Baker and Wolf have both been released, leaving the Mariners with a questionable opening day rotation consisting of Hernandez, Erasmo Ramirez, rookie James Paxton, rookie Roneis Elias, and one of Blake Beavan or Hector Noesi.

However, recognizing the fragility of their pitching staff, the Mariners promptly went out today and bolstered their rotation by signing soon-to-be 35 year old veteran pitcher Chris Young who was released by the Nationals. Young is coming off shoulder surgery on his throwing arm, hasn’t pitched at the major league level since 2012, and whose last full season as a starter was in 2007 where he made 30 starts for the Padres.

Wait, did I say bolster? Scratch that.

The Mariners entered the offseason needing to address the starting pitching, the outfield and the bullpen. Outside of signing closer Fernando Rodney to replace closer Danny Farquhar, the Mariners elected to ignore all three areas, believing instead that somehow, something will transpire and provide resolution. Perhaps Zduriencik and the Mariners see something the rest of the baseball world cannot?

It’s possible.

Mariners Add Hart & Morrison, Position Themselves To Go After Carlos Gomez

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With Day 3 of the MLB Winter Meetings concluded, the Mariners added two more bats to their revamped lineup.  First, Jack Zduriencik signed Corey Hart to a guaranteed one-year, 6M contract with additional incentives that could push the deal to 13M.  Hart will take over the DH duties as well and spend time in the outfield and possibly at 1B.  Within an hour after signing Hart, reliever Carter Capps was sent packing to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Logan Morrison.  Morrison will replace Justin Smoak as the starting 1B.

Hart missed all of 2013 after having surgery on both knees, but he possesses big time power when healthy.  In 2012, he slashed a .270/.334/.507 to go along with 30 homeruns. From 2010 to 2012, Hart averaged a slash line of .279/.343/.514 and 29 homeruns.  That kind of production should slot nicely right behind newly acquired Robinson Cano, giving the Mariners two potent bats for the middle of their order.

Morrison was a highly rated prospect coming up through the Marlins organization, living up to expectations in his 2010 big league call-up by slashing a .283/.390/.447 in 62 games.  He followed that up the next season with a slightly lesser .247/.330/.468 despite hitting 23 homeruns.  The last two seasons, Morrison has been less than pedestrian, averaging a .236/.321/.387.  However, against RHP last season, Morrison put up a solid .261/.354/.423.   The Mariners could be looking to implement a platoon at 1B next season, with Morrison starting against RHP, and Hart against LHP.

While Hart and Morrison fill needs for the Mariners, their acquisitions may have also created an opportunity to land a needed centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Both Hart and Morrison were top targets for the Milwaukee Brewers who are looking to fill their need at 1B.  With both Hart and Morrison no longer available, the market for first basemen has thinned dramatically.  The Brewers’ current remaining options are trading for the Mets’ Ike Davis, or signing free agent James Loney.  However, the Mets are asking for top pitching prospect Tyler Thornburg in return for Davis, whom the Brewers are not willing to give up.  And Loney is seeking a three-year deal, also something the Brewers are not interested in providing.  To complicate matters even more, the Brewers are competing with both the Pirates and the Rays who are also looking to fill needs at 1B.

Enter the Mariners and newly available Justin Smoak.

By acquiring Hart and Morrsion, the Mariners not only added needed offense, but simultaneously positioned themselves for a possible trade with the Brewers.  But not just any trade.  Rather, a trade for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.  As we noted in our offseason lookout, Gomez is one of the games top up-and-coming players who would provide the Mariners with elite defense as well as production at the top of the batting order.  The Brewers have made no indication that they are willing to move Gomez, but the Mariners – via their acquisitions of Cano, Hart and Morrison – have created an abundance of tradeable pieces that could persuade the Brewers to think otherwise.

In return for Gomez, the Mariners could not only offer Smoak to fill the Brewers’ need at 1B, but also include any combination of Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, Jesus Montero, in addition to top pitching prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  We previously suggested a package of Walker, Smoak, Saunders, and top outfield prospect Stefen Romero.  But with the signing of Cano, the Mariners are now free to add Ackley or Franklin into the mix without creating a need in their own lineup.  Could a package centered around Walker, Smoak, and Ackley entice the Brewers to part with Gomez?  Maybe swap out Ackley for Franklin?  Perhaps offer Paxton instead of Walker, but include a few more prospects in the deal?  In any scenario, the Brewers would be receiving young cost-controlled players with upside, capable of stepping right into the starting lineup, and who would fill immediate needs.

Clearly, at this point, a possible Gomez trade is nothing more than conjecture.  But with the Brewers looking diligently to fill their need at 1B, the Mariners suddenly find themselves with a golden opportunity to make an offer to acquire that coveted center fielder and leadoff hitter, one that could find the Brewers hard pressed to pass up.