Tag Archives: Kyle Seager

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.

It’s Time for the Mariners to End the Almonte Experiment

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Last Wednesday, the Mariners finally ended their eight game losing streak by defeating the Houston Astros 5-3 on a dramatic bottom of the ninth inning 3-run homerun by Kyle Seager. The win prevented the free falling Mariners from being swept at home by the worst team in baseball, and sent the reported 13,739 fans in attendance home with a bit of long forgotten joy.

But lost in all the excitement of the Mariners’ victory and Seager’s heroics, was the continuation of another streak that has become an impossible-to-ignore predicament.  At least to anyone not named Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, that is.

Last night saw an all too familiar performance this season – a box score line of 0 for 4, two strikeouts, and no walks by Abraham Almonte. The two strikeouts marked the 11th time in 21 games that Almonte has struck out multiple times in a game, and added to his league leading 33 strikeouts this season, which are nearly double of what he totaled last season after his first 21 games.  And if the strikeouts weren’t bad enough, Almonte is now slashing a .213/.255/.326 with an OPS+ of 68. His walk rate has dropped to 5.3%, while his strikeout rate of 35.1% ranks fourth worst in all of baseball.   In the series against Houston alone – against some fairly mediocre pitching – Almonte went 2 for 12 with six strikeouts and no walks.

To be fair, Almonte’s struggles shouldn’t be unexpected. Up until last year, Almonte was a fringe prospect whose career minor league numbers were average at best. After being acquired from the Yankee’s in exchange for reliever Shawn Kelley, Almonte caught fire in the Pacific Coast League, slashing a .314/.403/.491 in 94 games. That would result in a late season call-up with the Mariners where he produced a respectable .264/.313/.403 in 25 games.   Such a performance was enough to lead many to believe Almonte could possibly vie for a backup outfielder role with the Mariners in 2014. But in 23 Cactus League games, Almonte struggled to a .178/.256/.301 to go with some shaky defense.   It was the kind of performance that would normally result in a reassignment to minor league camp.  But, somewhere within the mist of Spring Training underachievement, Zduriencik and McClendon decided Almonte would be the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. A surprising decision, to say the least, considering the fact that returning center fielder, Michael Saunders, who overcame an early season injury in 2013 to post a .790 OPS in the second half, continued his hitting with a .296/.375/.407 in 22 Cactus League games.

And while Michael Saunders has been relegated to the bench this season in favor of Logan Morrison, Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and presumably the recently promoted Cole Gillespie, the struggling and ineffective Almonte continues to get the everyday call in centerfield and as the leadoff hitter.

Despite his offensive malaise, Almonte’s play in centerfield has been passable, which perhaps explains his prolonged tenure in the starting lineup. Despite committing three fielding errors and some precarious routes taken on fly balls, Almonte’s defensive metrics – albeit a limited sample size – come in at average to above average with a 3.9 UZR in 184.2 innings. This would certainly account for why his fWAR is at 0.3 and not below replacement level. But for a player who is contributing nothing offensively, Almonte should be putting up gold glove caliber defense in centerfield – or around a 15.0 UZR – in order to justify his continued use as a poor hitting everyday player.

For comparison, Juan Lagares put up an astounding 21.5 UZR for the Mets last season. But at the plate, he produced only a .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for center fielders.   As brilliant as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcomings had the Mets, and baseball pundits alike, questioning whether he was anything more than a serviceable fourth outfielder.

So if a 21.5 UZR isnt enough to quell questions over a .242/.281/.352, what are we to think about a 3.9 UZR and a  .213/.255/.326?

All this isn’t to say that Almonte cannot become an average to above average everyday player. He probably will never be a gold glove caliber center fielder, and right about now, a .242/.281/.352 from him seems like it would be considered nothing less than a triumph. The Mariners would be happy to get above average defense and average hitting out of Almonte, and one day that may be the case. But right now, Almonte is what he is, and that’s an average defender and poor hitter. And that just isn’t good enough to justify consistent playing time, especially when the better all-around player in Saunders is available on the bench.

It’s time for the Mariners to do the right thing and end the Almonte experiment in center field and at leadoff.

 

Three Weeks Down, Mariners’ Progress Report 04/19/14

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The Seattle Mariners are nearly three weeks into the 2014 season, and what began as a promising 6-3 start that found the Mariners sitting at the top of American League West standings roughly one week ago, has quickly dissolved into a 7-9 record, fourth place in the American League West, and four games back of the division leading Oakland Athletics. The season is only 16 games young, so it’s far too early to be conclusive about anything. As we all know, the MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. But 16 games are enough to get a feeling for what’s working, and what is not.   Below is a quick look at what’s been good, what’s been bad, and what’s been downright ugly for the Mariners thus far in 2014.

The Good:

Dustin Ackley. Ackley is off to his best start since his initial call to the big leagues in 2011. Through 16 games this season, Ackley is leading the team in batting average (.291) and on-base percentage (.328), is tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and is 3rd in hits (16), slugging percentage (.455) and on-base plus slugging (.782). In addition to his hitting, Ackley has played a steady left field, reassuring management’s decision to move him from second base to the outfield.

Mike Zunino. After just 52 games in Class AAA Tacoma last season where he posted a paltry .227/.297/.478, Zunino was (surprisingly) called up by the Mariners to take over the team’s starting catching duties. While his defense and handling of the staff was solid, Zunino showed that he wasn’t ready to hit major league pitching. Over the next 52 games and 193 plate appearances, Zunino slashed a .214/.290/.329. Such a season had many thinking (including Mission Mariner) that Zunino needed more time to hone his hitting at Tacoma, and acquiring a starting catcher for 2014 should be on the to-do list. However, Zunino is proving otherwise.   Although he has drawn only one walk in 51 plate appearances, Zunino has emerged as one of the team leaders in hitting through the early season, ranking 1st for the Mariners in slugging percentage (.540), tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and 2nd in batting average (.280) and on-base plus slugging (.834).

Roenis Elias. With Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker saddled on the disabled list to begin the season, the rotation was a major concern for the Mariners. Let’s not be fooled, it still is, especially with James Paxton having now joined Iwakuma and Walker on the DL. But from the patchwork of arms assembled by GM Jack Zduriencik, Cuban rookie southpaw Elias has taken advantage of the window of opportunity granted to him by the rash of injuries and has helped keep a depleted rotation somewhat afloat. In his three starts thus far, Elias has pitched 16.2 innings with a 2.16 ERA, and a 1.020 WHIP. He’s held opposing hitters to a .196/.286/.304 and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits in any start. Elias most likely won’t be able to keep up this kind of pace, and will certainly regress closer to the mean. But he may have shown enough to keep him in the rotation once Iwakuma, Walker, and Paxton all return from injury.

Felix Hernandez. Felix is good. Really good. It’s pretty much a lifetime given, so it may be redundant and unnecessary to mention him here. But the thing is, Hernandez if off to the best early season start of his career. Through four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.741), strikeouts (39) and strikeouts per 9 innings (12.4). Hernandez is also holding opposing hitters to a .171/.209/.305 and has walked a mere three batters. As great as we all know Hernandez to be, such a start to 2014 is worth tipping our cap to.

The Bad:

The Top of the Batting Order. Finding a centerfield and a leadoff hitter were two areas of need for the Mariners entering the offseason. Somewhere along the way, Mariner management decided that rookie Abraham Almonte was the answer to fulfilling both of these wants. When that occurred exactly is difficult to pin-point. Spring training would be the logical guess, but Almonte’s play didn’t really support such a decision. Manager Lloyd McClendon praised Almonte’s speed and ability to put solid wood on the ball, but speed and making contact doesn’t account for much if the result is a failure to get on base. And all the spin in the world can’t cover the fact that Almonte failed to get on base, scuffling to a .178/.256/.301 in 23 Cactus League games. And with the start of the regular season, he hasn’t done much better, slashing a .246/.297/.377 while putting up a walk rate of 6.8% and a strikeout rate of 33.8%. Not exactly what you want in a leadoff hitter, let alone in the starting lineup. Following Almonte in the batting order is last season’s leadoff hitter, Brad Miller. Although Miller did an admirable job leading off in 2013 after being called up mid-season – slashing a .265/.318/.418 – this year has been a different story. Miller has struggled right out of the gate, putting up a .203/.247/.377 to go along with a 2.7% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

Stefen Romero: Romero probably should be in the “ugly” category, but I just can’t get myself to place him there seeing how Romero is only on the 25-man roster due to the fact that Zduriencik rolled the dice on Franklin Gutierrez staying healthy, and neglected to acquire any other viable right-handed hitting outfielders. But Zduriencik did, and Gutierrez couldn’t, and Romero – who should be marinating down at Tacoma for another season – found himself as the starting right fielder against left handed pitching. The result: a .158/.200/.211, with one extra base hit, no walks, and a 30.0% strikeout rate.  

Erasmo Ramirez: Ramirez began the season looking like he was a legitimate #2 pitcher rather than a temporary fill-in for the injured Iwakuma. In his first start, Ramirez bested the Angels by going seven innings and allowing only six hits, two earned runs, with six strikeouts and no walks. Since then, however, Ramirez lost all three of his ensuing starts. Reverting back to his old habit of not being able to locate his pitches consistently, Ramirez was abused by opposing hitters to the tune of a .383 batting average and a 1.124 OPS. Unable to go deep into games, Ramirez totaled just a mere 11 innings pitched, while allowing 18 hits, 8 walks and posting a 10.64 ERA.

The Ugly:

Logan Morrison.   Zduriencik’s acquisition of the recovering-from-knee-surgery 1B/DH Morrison was odd considering the fact that just hours before, the Mariners had just signed another recovering-from-knee-surgery(s) 1B/DH in Corey Hart. The plan seemingly was for Morrison to provide a left handed power bat off the bench to compliment the right handed power hitting Hart at DH, and the right handed power hitting outfielder that was sure to be acquired. That power hitting outfielder, as we know, was never acquired. And despite his defensive liabilities, Morrison somehow garnered the majority of innings in right field, posting a lowly .150/.227/.150, with no extra base hits, before landing back on the disabled list, this time with a right hamstring injury.

Kyle Seager. Over the last two years, Seager has been the one constant in the Mariners lineup, providing a solid bat in addition to passable defense at third base. Among the handful of young Mariner prospects rushed up to the major leagues since 2010, Seager has been the only one to make the necessary adjustments and provide consistent production at the major league level. However, so far in 2014, that has not been the case. Through the early going, Seager is slashing a .170/.302/.245, with no homeruns and just two runs batted in. However, Seager’s walk rate is up to a career high 14.3%, and his BABIP is at a career low .225, indicating that perhaps Seager’s slow start may be the result of bad luck rather than bad hitting.

Lloyd McClendon. As former Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox used to say, you have to play the cards you’re dealt. And that’s exactly what McClendon has been doing. Except, he has been playing the wrong cards. For whatever inexplicable reason, McClendon relegated Michael Saunders to the bench as the fourth outfielder, and gave Morrison the starting right fielder’s job. With Saunders arguably the better hitter, defender, and base runner, the decision to take at-bats away from Saunders in favor of the slow footed and defensively challenged Morrison is, for lack of a better word, incomprehensible. As if that wasn’t enough, McClendon’s continuous use of the struggling Almonte and Miller at the top of the batting order has been just as puzzling. As noted above, Almonte and Miller are producing respective on-base percentages of .297 and .247. And after three weeks of play, their continued inability to get on base leaves little reasonable argument as to why one, or both, shouldn’t be dropped lower in the batting order. Meanwhile, Ackley has been one of the Mariners’ top hitters, yet continues to find himself buried at the bottom of the order.  If that isn’t enough, we could address a handful of questionable non-pitching moves made by McClendon as well. But, as they say, enough is enough, and we think enough has already been said.

 

Mariners Bring Back Willie Bloomquist

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According to reports, the Mariners have inked utility player Willie Bloomquist to a two year deal for somewhere in the neighborhood of 5M-6M pending a physical.  Since his departure from the Mariners after the 2008 season, Bloomquist has gone on to play for Kansas City, Cincinnati, and most recently Arizona where he slashed a .289/.328/.368 the past three seasons for the D’backs.

At first glance, Bloomquist’s signing is nothing more than obtaining a versatile bench player who can play every position on the field other than pitcher and catcher.  However, Bloomquist joining the M’s could mean something more than just adding depth.

In constructing a 25-man roster, one’s bench ideally would consist of a catcher, an outfielder, and two backup infielders, one of whom is also capable of playing an outfield position.  As of right now, the M ‘s have that duo in Dustin Ackley and Carlos Triunfel, assuming that the M’s are not content with starting 2014 with Ackley in the outfield.  So why guarantee that type of contract to a 36 year old Bloomquist who would essentially be a minor overall upgrade over Triunfel?

One answer would be if the Mariners were going to lose Ackley as that versatile infield/outfield backup. And that scenario could come true if Nick Franklin were traded, allowing Ackley to move back to second base, or if Ackley were to be traded.  With the Mariners looking to obtain an impact bat this offseason, either of those players could be moved without leaving a hole in the starting lineup.

The other reason is if the Mariners signed Bloomquist to not just be a backup, but, rather, as someone who is going to play, and play a lot.   While, career-wise, Bloomquist has carried a below average bat, his split against left handed pitching has been decent, slashing a career .283/.339/.377.  Zduriencik has made it clear the Mariners will be employing more platoons in 2014, and with Bloomquist’s versatility in the infield and outfield, Zduriencik could be looking at Bloomquist to provide platoon options for Mike Saunders, Kyle Seager, Justin Smoak, and perhaps even someone like Shin-Soo Choo if signed.

Whatever the reason(s) that exists behind the Bloomquist signing, one thing can be said – the Mariners apparently are not worried about overpaying (even if minutely, relatively speaking) for someone whom they see as filling a need in 2014.  That, in itself, could be a good sign from a team looking to add impact bats, but who have been reluctant to pay market value to obtain such players.

Revisiting Zduriencik’s Infamous 2010 Letter

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As the Mariners begin their search for their third manager in five seasons, we at Mission Mariner are reminded of the letter Jack Zduriencik e-mailed to season ticket holders the last time the Mariners found themselves in this very position.

The letter written after the fateful 2010 season, which saw the Mariners lose 101 games, and was highlighted by the firing of manager Don Wakamatsu midway through the season.

The letter where Zduriencik stood tall and defied all those know-it-all arm chair general managers by confidently assuring everyone that there were “plenty of reasons to believe that our long-term plan is working.”

It’s now been three years since that bold assertion made by Zduriencik. An assertion that teetered   on arrogance considering the calamity that transpired both on and off the field that season. Nonetheless, it served as a direct response to the cynics who now had 2010 to use as confirmation for their dissension, while providing reason, for those thinking of jumping ship, to stay on board a little while longer.

First, the farm system.

“We’ve got a flock of top-rated prospects on their way to the big club. These include position players Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Carlos Peguero, Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Johermyn Chavez, Greg Halman and Matt Mangini, along with hard-throwing pitchers like Michael Pineda, Blake Beavan, Dan Cortes, Mauricio Robles, Maikel Cleto and Anthony Varvaro. Many of our best prospects are headed for winter ball and the fall instructional league – they’re driven to improve and play at the next level.

Some of these youngsters will develop faster than others, but we’ve got a rich pipeline of talent. Impressive, considering how thin our minor league system was just a couple of years ago. Plus there are more top prospects coming: We have the #2 pick in the 2011 June draft and we continue to scout and sign top international players.”

Now, fourteen “top prospects” and a top draft pick – eventual selection Danny Hultzen – coming down a “rich pipeline” all of whom are “driven to improve and play at the next level” is pretty impressive.  Most every franchise would be lucky to have such talent in their farm system.

Except, today, eight of those top prospects are no longer with the team (Chavez, Halman, Mangini, Pineda, Cortes, Robles, Cleto and Varvaro), one is still in the minors (Peguero), one is dealing with a serious rotator injury (Hultzen), and four are still trying to prove they should stick on a big league roster (Smoak, Ackley, Franklin and Beavan).

Of that group of fourteen, only one has solidified himself as a productive everyday major league player (Seager).

So, the minor league talent hasn’t panned out as Zduriencik projected back in 2010.  No problem. There’s talent on the big league club, right?

“At the big league level, Mariners pitchers tied for the third best ERA in the American League in 2010. Felix Hernandez has fulfilled his potential as a perennial Cy Young candidate. Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Luke French made major strides in 2010. We like our pitching; our staff is young, developing and hungry.

Two young players, catcher Adam Moore and outfielder Michael Saunders, got valuable playing time and impressed scouts around the league. Meanwhile, our four core players – Ichiro, Felix, Guti and Chone Figgins  – are signed to long-term deals.”

This time, Zduriencik names nine major league players, four of whom he specifically labels as “core” players, as well as group of pitchers singled out as essentially young, developing, top flight rotation arms.

And what franchise wouldn’t want that?   Not knowing any better, one would surmise the Mariners were sporting a solid core group of players to build around, two young impressive up-the-middle defenders, and one of the best young rotations in baseball.

Unfortunately, of those nine players named, six are no longer with the team (Vargas, Fister, French, Moore, Ichiro, Figgins), one spends more time on the DL than on the field (Guti), and one is still struggling to show he belongs on a big league roster (Saunders).

Of the four deemed “core” players, only Felix has lived up to the billing.  Regarding those Mariners pitchers who tied for the third best ERA in the American League?  Just Felix remains.

So, what does all this mean?

It means you can crumble up that letter from 2010 and throw it into the recycle bin.  Because all that’s really remaining from all of those “top prospects” and “core” major league players that Zduriencik boasted about is Seager, Felix and, um, well…that’s about it.

Seager and Felix.

It also means that for as much hope and excitement the Mariners want you to feel with the newest wave of top prospects to have reached the big leagues – Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Nick Franklin – the 2010 season and the Zduriencik letter is a yet another stark reminder that prospect rankings are meaningless as it relates to future MLB success.

Because when the 2013 season kicked off, the Mariners started four of the top 30 prospects from 2010 – Montero (4), Ackley (11), Smoak (13) and Saunders (30).

All of whom were collectively ranked higher than the next subsequent catcher/infielder/first baseman/outfielder quartet ranked on that list – Buster Posey (7), Alceides Escobar (12), Logan Morrison (20) and Todd Frazier (43).  A group of players that every GM in baseball today would probably take over the foursome the Mariners had accumulated.

And if we are keeping it real, most every GM in baseball would probably just take Posey over Montero, Ackley, Smoak and Saunders

Which isn’t to say that those four can’t eventually live up to expectations.  Or that Zunino, Miller, Walker, Paxton, or Franklin won’t end up being productive major league players.  Rather, audacious boasting of unproven players will prove foolhardy more often than not, no matter what number precedes a player’s name on some prospect rankings list.

Which is probably why Howard Lincoln talked strictly about baseball operations instead of player evaluations when recently asked his personal thoughts on the current state of the team.  And considering how Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team has seemingly adopted a dormant approach when it comes to expounding on organizational decision making, it’s not really surprising that Lincoln quickly side-stepped the opportunity to offer his opinion regarding the young players on the big league roster.

Or maybe Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team learned their lesson from 2010, and are not prepared to make the same mistake twice.

Because Zduriencik’s 2010 letter – that infamous letter meant to show season ticket holders that the Mariners were, in fact, doing things right despite losing 101 games – now stands as a glaring beacon of irony, warning the baseball world of the dangers that come from prognosticating the future of prospects, especially by a franchise who’s successful return to playing competitive and meaningful baseball hinges on an uncompromising prospect-only rebuild methodology.