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Seattle Mariners 2025 Offseason Plan

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After the Mariners fell one game short of the playoffs in 2023, Cal Raleigh had some choice words for ownership: Go get us players for 2024.

Cal’s request was a bit more of a “where’s the commitment” shade thrown at the front office, but bringing in better players was the general theme.

“We’ve got to commit to winning, we have to commit to going and getting those players you see other teams going out and getting —  big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up…we’ve done a great job of growing some players here and within the farm system, but sometimes you’ve got to go out and you have to buy.”

The Mariners seemingly took Raleigh’s words to heart. No, they didn’t go spend $700M on Shohei Ohtani. But President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, and General Manager, Justin Hollander, did go out and acquire a handful of solid players with proven track records.

Jorge Polanco, coming off a 117 wRC+, was acquired from the Twins to take over second base. Mitch Garver was signed away from the division rival Rangers where his 140 wRC+ in ’23 looked to be the perfect fit at designated hitter. Luke Raley, fresh of a career high 129 wRC+, was acquired from the Rays to provide left-handed thump from the outfield, first base, or designated hitter. And in a swap of contracts, the Mariners parted with Robbie Ray and brought back Mitch Haniger to reclaim his spot in right field. Haniger suffered through his second straight injury-plagued season in ’23, but the Mariners hoped an injury-free Haniger would provide offense closer to his last healthy season in ’21 where he posted a 120 wRC+ across 157 games.

The additions didn’t stop with the offense. Dipoto added much needed late inning depth to the bullpen by adding 98 mph heat in the form of Gregory Santos to join fellow leverage relievers Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. The 25-year-old was coming off a season where he posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 66 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched.

Despite a slow start by the offense, the Mariners jumped out to a 10-game lead over the second place Astros in the AL West by the middle of June thanks to the M’s dominant starting pitching. However, persisting offensive struggles up and down the lineup would eventually catch up to the team.  

Polanco, Garver and Haniger never got on track, and Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and JP Crawford all struggled for the majority of the season. Even Raleigh struggled for the first three months of the year with an underwhelming .202/.289/.390 and 97 wRC+ through June.

And making matters even worse, Rodriguez, France, and Crawford all ended up missing significant time due to injuries. 

By the middle of July, that cushy 10-game lead in mid-June had been surrendered to the Astros despite a starting rotation ranking 1st in ERA (3.36) and 2nd in FIP (3.63) in the American League.

Several in-season moves were made to try and awaken a dormant offense. Among those moves:

  • May 31: Bench coach and offensive coordinator Brant Brown was fired.
  • July 30 trade deadline: Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner – two of the top hitters available – were acquired. Arozarena took over LF and Turner replaced Ty France at 1B, who was then DFA’d and traded to the Reds.
  • August 22: Manager Scott Servais and Director of Hitting Jarret DeHart were given pink slips. Former Mariners players Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over as manager and hitting coach.

After the firings of Servais and DeHart, the offense finally showed life where the team put up a 125 wRC+ over the final two months of the season, a performance good enough to rank 3rd in the MLB over that time. However, it was too little too late as the Mariners fell a game shy of making the playoffs. 

At his end of the season presser, Dipoto and Hollander spoke about their realization of the type of adjustments that need to be made in order to have a better suited roster for T-Mobile Park. It wasn’t quite clear what these adjustments were, but the inference seemed to be an offense less reliant on right-side fly ball pull hitters and more focus on contact hitters who can spray the ball from gap to gap.   

“We learned where we may be doing things the wrong way and we have to make adjustments,” Dipoto said. “Not just an approach on the field, but in how we put the roster together and maybe in some of the things we’re looking for and in how those things fit in our ballpark – maybe that’s been the greatest lesson for us this year. Hopefully, we’re able to adapt the lessons we’ve learned to building the ’25 team.”

Moments later, however, Dipoto raised a few eyebrows by suggesting any “lessons we’ve learned” may simply come from the players already on the roster.

“We’ve been a good run-scoring offense on the road,” Dipoto said. “I think we can be a good run-scoring offense both at home and on the road with a more balanced approach. … The team has shown that they are capable of doing this – that we don’t need to to go out and revamp our roster. There’s a reason we’ve had a good team for a handful of years now, and it’s because our players are good.”

As most fans know, having a “good team” hasn’t been good enough for the Mariners over the past two seasons.  The challenge facing Dipoto and Hollander will be getting a good team back to being a playoff team, and that type of task is rarely solved by relying on the status quo.  Changes in player personnel will be needed, especially for a team that will enter the offseason with question marks at third base, second base, and first base. 

Of course, any meaningful changes will be dictated by ownership’s willingness to increase payroll.  While it has been reported that spending will go up from last year, it is also believed it won’t go up significantly. Most speculation has landed on the front office having about $15M to $20M to spend.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2025 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Logan Evans and LHP Brandyn Garcia to the Cardinals for 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Brendan Donovan, and $12M

The skinny:  After falling short of the playoffs in 2024, the Cardinals have decided to undergo a “reset” with a focus on developing their next core group of young players to lead them to playoff contention starting in 2027.  Naturally, veteran Nolan Arenado should be available if he is willing to waive his no trade clause, and if any team is willing to take on all  – or a good portion of – the remaining $74M owed over the next three years. While no longer the offensive player he once was, Arenado is still a solid hitter who possesses the bat-to-ball skills the Mariners desire. He can also flash the leather at the hot corner with the best of them. Twenty-seven-year-old Brendan Donavan also possesses excellent bat skills and is a strong defender.  In return, the Mariners part with a pair of top organizational starting pitchers in No. 10 prospect Logan Evans and No. 16 prospect Brandyn Garcia. Mitch Haniger and his remaining one year and $15.5M is also sent to St. Louis to offset Arenado’s contract.

Trade C/DH Mitch Garver, LF Dominic Canzone, and RHP Hunter Cranton to the Padres for 2B Luis Arraez

The skinny:  The Mariners signed Garver last offseason to be their primary designated hitter but after struggling early on to get on track, the Mariners relegated Garver to backup catcher and went with Luke Raley and Justin Turner at designated hitter for the majority of the second half. The Padres acquired Luis Arraez mid-season to fill their need at second base.  But Arraez’s poor defense led him to being moved to first base, and then eventually to designated hitter. With the Padres in the market for a catcher and both Arraez and Garver set to make similar salaries in 2025, the stars seemed aligned for the two teams to make a swap to fill each team’s respective needs. 

Sign 1B/DH Justin Turner to a 1 year, $8M contract

The skinny:  The Mariners traded for Turner at the deadline to fill their first base and designated hitter needs and the 39-year-old responded by producing a slash line of .264/.363/.403, a 126 wRC+, and continued to display above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills.  At age 40, the question is whether Turner has another productive year left in the tank?  The Mariners seemingly believe there’s at least one more productive year as they’ve stated an interest in bringing Turner back for the ’25 season.

Sign LHP Caleb Ferguson to a 1 year, 1.5M contract

The skinny: Caleb Ferguson is coming off a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season where he posted a 4.28 FIP and allowed 1.35 HR/9 with the Yankees, but then a 2.88 FIP and 0.43 HJR/9 after getting traded to the Astros. Ferguson did see his average velo on his four-seamer drop a few ticks to 93.6 mph, but he still ranked well above average in limiting hard contact and missing bats, something the Mariners haven’t had from a southpaw since maybe Arthur Rhodes toed the rubber nearly two decades ago. 

Sign C Yasmani Grandel to 1 year, $1M contract

The skinny: The Mariners will need to restock their catching depth behind starter Cal Raleigh and the recently departed Seby Zavala.  Grandel no longer wields the bat like he once did, but he is a solid defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff well and is lauded for his leadership and ability to make in game adjustments.  It’s possible that Grandel could be had on a minor league deal, but given the dearth of viable catching options behind Raleigh, it may require a MLB deal to ensure the Mariners secure Grandel’s services.

The Wrap

The Mariners, again, find themselves heading into the offseason with the task of putting together an offensive lineup that can match their talented pitching staff.  Dipoto and Hollander believed they had accomplished that after focusing much of last year on acquiring hitter’s better skilled at not striking out. That never materialized, though, as the Mariners led the MLB last season with a 26.8% K-rate.

Dipoto and Hollander now claim to know the secret recipe for hitting at T-Mobile Park. Again, it’s uncertain what those exact adjustment are since neither went into specifics. But staying away from strikeouts will likely remain a priority. And with there no longer being a need to hit the ball over the shift, adding more contact hitters would be a good bet.

The first move in our offseason plan is nabbing Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. This is reminiscent of the Mariners acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker where the Mariners not only filled two needs, but also lowered the asking price on Winker by agreeing to take on the contract of Suarez. Assuming Arenado is willing to be traded, the $74M still owed to him over the next three years would have to be figured out for a Mariners ownership unwilling to take on that amount of money.  The Rockies are on the hook for $10M of that sum, and another $12M will be deferred to 2038. That would leave the Mariners on the hook for $21M in 2025, $16M in 2026, $15M in 2027 and then $12M in deferred money. 

Salary-wise, $52M over three years is probably still too rich for ownership. So to offset Arenado’s contract, the Mariners include Haniger who no longer appears to have a role on the team after the acquisitions of Arozarena and Robles. That would reduce the overall money owed to $36.5M over three years which is about the price ownership was willing to pay for Eugenio Suarez. The Cardinals would also chip in $12M to cover the deferred money owed in 2038.

Arenado may no longer be the yearly all-star and MVP caliber player he once was, but the eight-time all-star is still a fairly productive player.  While his power dipped a fair amount in ’24 (.394 slugging, 16 HRs) Arenado still produced a .272 average, a .325 OBP, struck out just 14.5% of the time, and sported an 84.4% contact rate.  Arenado can also still provide elite level defense where he was worth +6 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average at the hot corner.  That all added up to Arenado being a 3.1 fWAR player last year, and if the Mariners can obtain close to that type of value in each of the next three seasons for $12M per, then they should be all over it.    

While Arenado fills the need at third base, the primary target in the trade is Donovan who slashed a .278/.342/.417 with 14 HRs, 34 doubles, and struck out just 13.5% of the time in ’24. Donovan’s contact rate of 86.6% was nearly 10% better than league average.  In addition, Donovan is a plus defender who can fill the Mariners second base needs until top prospect Cole Young is ready to be called up. When that happens, the versatile Donovan can move to another position either in the infield or outfield.  And with Donovan’s three years of control, the Mariners can take their time with Cole and move him up only when they are certain he is ready.

With the Cardinals undergoing what they call a two-year “reset,” Haniger would be able to provide a year of veteran leadership for what will be a very young lineup in ’25, with the possibility of being a movable piece at the trade deadline. The far more enticing acquisitions for the Cardinals, though, is Mariners’ No. 10 and top pitching prospect, Logan Evans, and No. 16 prospect, pitcher Brandyn Garcia. Both are viewed as future rotation arms about a year away, which perfectly fits the Cardinals competitive time-table.

Evans features a two-seamer that sits mid 90’s and is complimented by a slider that misses bats and an effective cutter against righties. The Mariners toyed with the idea of moving Evans to the bullpen last year so he could come up late in the season and add relief help. But the organization decided to keep him as a starter and the righty responded by going 6-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 22 starts and striking out 102 batters in 105.2 innings for Class AA Arkansas.

Garcia sports three plus pitches including a fastball that can amp up to 98 mph. His other offerings include a sharp cutter and a big sweeping slider. The 6′ 4″ lefty made a combined 27 starts for Class High A Everett and Class AA Arkansas and recorded a 2.01 ERA while striking out 132 batters in 116.1 innings. Some question whether the rotation is where Garcia will be most effective as a major leaguer, but so far Garcia has shown nothing to support a move to the bullpen.

Last season’s “big” free agent signing, Mitch Garver, also appears to be in a bit of positional limbo. The Mariners are banking on Garver bouncing back after producing a .172/.286/.341 and a 30.9% strikeout rate. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Garver regress closer to his career norm, but with Luke Raley now pushed into a first base/designated hitter role against right-handed pitching, and Dipoto eyeing Justin Turner to return to the first base/designated hitter role he played last year, it begs the question as to how Garver will be used in the coming season?  If the Mariners are looking to sign Turner – or perhaps Carlos Santana who is also reportedly on Dipoto’s wish list – then Garver would end up being, once again, a very pricey backup catcher. 

About a day’s drive south of Seattle, the Padres are also undergoing a similar “where to play him” situation with their second baseman turned first baseman turned designated hitter.  The Padres made an in-season trade for Luiz Arraez and plugged the (then) two-time batting champion in at second base.  However, Arraez’s defensive struggles forced the Padres to move him to first base and, when those struggles persisted, they consigned him to be their designated hitter.  

Arraez finished the year winning his third straight batting title with a .314 average to go along with a .346 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. All of which makes one question why the Padres would entertain trading Arraez?  Reportedly, the Padres would like to give Manny Machado more time at designated hitter and wouldn’t be able to do so with Arraez entrenched at that spot.  Additionally, the Padres are not fully convinced that Arraez – a singles and doubles hitter – is who they want occupying a power position.  

Garver would help fill the Padres catching needs where Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz are both free agents, and returning catcher Luis Campusano (.227/.281/.361) looks more like a part-time player rather than someone capable of everyday duty. When not catching, Garver could also provide time at designated hitter and take a few innings at first base, if needed.  

Of course, any interest in Garver from the Padres would hinge on the belief that 2024 was just an offensive outlier. A .216 BABIP would suggest a certain amount of bad luck was at play. And there have been comments from around the league – most recently by Teoscar Hernandez – about an unidentifiable uncomfortableness when hitting at T-Mobile Park. A change of scenery for Garver could result in a return to more career-type production, much like was the case for Hernandez.

With the Padres also looking for a left fielder, the Mariners part with Dominic Canzone who has shown flashes of offensive & defensive upside but just hasn’t had the opportunity to establish himself yet. With the M’s outfield already set for next year, the odds of Canzone finding more opportunity with the team is slim to none. ZiPS projections has Canzone producing a slightly better than average .242/.299/.415 and a 106 OPS+ across 402 plate appearances in 2025, which could suit the Padres just fine given Canzone is still pre-arbitration. Those saving would allow the Padres to allocate more money to filling their other needs such as shortstop and first base.

The Mariners also include their No. 30 ranked prospect in RHP Hunter Cranton. The 24-year-old made waves during his first taste of professional ball last year by showcasing a 98 mph fastball that hit triple digits. That type of heat resulted in Cranton being ranked by Baseball America as possessing the best arm in the Mariners organization. In a limited action after being drafted in the 3rd round, Cranton pitched to a 3.24 ERA and racked up 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings for Class A Modesto. Cranton is projected as future late inning reliever who shouldn’t require much time in the minors.

For the Mariners, Arraez represents what the team is sorely lacking. The 27-year-old had a 94.1% contact rate and sprayed the ball evenly to all parts of the field (32.7% LF, 37.5% CF, 29.8% RF).  Arraez’s high contact rate does come with downside as he rarely strikes out (4.3% K rate in 2024) and walks are far and few between (3.6% BB rate).  Additionally, there won’t be much in the longball department either. But Arraez would certainly provide the type of “adjustment” that Dipoto and Hollander are seemingly seeking and – kicking traditionalism out the window – the three-time batting champion could slot in nicely as the Mariners primary designated hitter.

Justin Turner was a player I had hoped the M’s would sign last offseason (as well as Arozarena) so I was quite pleased when Turner (and Arozarena) was acquired at the trade deadline. Not only did he produce, but Turner provided a veteran presence that had been sorely missing since Carlos Santana was let go after 2022. Turner showed to be the type of player Cal Raleigh asked the front office to go get – a “been there, done that” veteran. With both Turner and Dipoto expressing mutual interest in a reunion, it seems quite likely that a deal will get done.

Last season saw Matt Brash and Gregory Santos – two of the team’s top leverage arms – go down with injuries, forcing the Mariners to lean heavily on Andres Munoz in late inning situations. It seemed like Dan Wilson relied on Munoz to save every game down the stretch, creating anxiety among fans that Munoz’s arm would fall off at any moment. With both Brash and Santos expected to be recovered from injuries, the Mariners bullpen shouldn’t require much tinkering prior to opening day. At the same time, however, with Brash and Santos both coming back from injuries, adding one more proven relief arm wouldn’t be the worst idea.

For most of his career, Caleb Ferguson has been one of the better – and underrated – relief arms in baseball. For the first six seasons of his career, Ferguson produced a 3.43 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 10.7 K/9 serving primarily as the Dodgers’ 7th inning bridge to setup men like Pedro Baez and Blake Treinen. The Yankees acquired Ferguson last year to bolster their bullpen but Ferguson struggled to get on track, posting a 5.13 ERA and 4.29 FIP over his first 42 appearances. Ferguson was then acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline where he regressed closer to his career norms with a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 20 appearances.  

With the trade of Garver to the Padres, and Seby Zavala signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox, Cal Raleigh would enter spring training as the only catcher with any substantial MLB experience. The Mariners do have highly rated prospect Harry Ford percolating in the minors, and while Ford might see his first MLB action sometime in ’25, he is probably a year away from any sort of meaningful playing time.

To address this, the Mariners tap Yasmani Grandel to serve as Raleigh’s backup for 2025. The 35-year-old Grandel split time at catcher for the Pirates last year where he slashed an underwhelming .228/.304/.400. But Grandel still showed a solid approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate, and an above average 81.3% contact rate. Additionally, Grandel received praise for his game calling, defense, and the way he handled the pitching staff.  For a Mariners team needing just a start or two per week from their backup catcher, Grandel would adequately fill such a role.

All said and told, the above transactions would put the Mariners just over the $160M payroll mark for 2025. According to Roster Resource, the Mariners finished the 2024 season with a $144M payroll so that should fit within budget.

Seattle Mariners 2023 Offseason Plan

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The only thing that could have gone better for the Mariners in 2022 was figuring out a way to defeat the Houston Astros in the American League Divisional Series playoffs. And let’s be real, the challenge was figuring out how to beat Yordan Alvarez. Outside of that one gigantic slugging unsolved mystery, the season couldn’t have been scripted any better.

The Mariners finally ended the longest active playoff drought among the four major North American sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA NHL) that had been dogging them since 2001. And in doing so they captured the attention (and hearts?) of fans nationwide. From the play of their charismatic rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez; to stringing together a 14-win streak that catapulted the team from 10 games below .500 in late June to 18 game above .500 at seasons end; to sweeping the Blue Jays out of the playoffs in the 3-game Wild Card series…the Mariners took their faithful on the type of ride last experienced in 1995. 

Heading into the offseason, the Mariners will be focused on closing the gap with their AL West champion rivals, who finished 16 games ahead of them in the standings and swept them in the ALDS en route to winning their second World Series title in the past six seasons. To help accomplish that feat, the Mariners will need to lengthen their lineup and add another high leverage arm, specifically a left-hander.  As was exposed during the playoffs, the Mariners far too often struggled to manufacture runs from the bottom half of their lineup which, in turn, caused the top part of their order to rely too heavily on the long ball.  And not having that go-to lefty in their stable of hard throwing arms to come in and face someone in a high leverage moment like, oh, say…Alvarez in the 9th?  Yeah.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2023 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Sign OF Brandon Nimmo to a 5 year/$120M contract

The M’s need to add offense and corner outfield is one place they can do that. While Aaron Judge is available and would look marvelous roaming the T-Mobile outfield grass, the idea of the Mariners adding another $300M+ contract to their payroll is simply not going to happen. Not when the M’s will surely be looking to lock up several more of their notable young players like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Ty France.   

As great as Judge is, Brandon Nimmo arguably represents the type of hitter the M’s value and need most: patient and disciplined, high on-base abilities, and good bat-to-ball skills.  Yes, Nimmo isn’t going to provide the kind of power someone like Judge will but the Mariners already have power with the likes of Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Julio, and even France. Rather, Nimmo’s value for the Mariners is his ability to put the ball in play and get on base (.384 OBP average over the past three seasons), a component sorely lacking from the team’s offense last year.  In 2022, Nimmo slashed .274/.367/.433, which was considered a “down” year for him.  Over the prior two seasons, Nimmo averaged a .288/.402/.454.  Again, that’s a .402 on base average! His 5.4 fWAR would have led the team, and Nimmo’s 134 wRC+ would have been just below Julio’s 146. As a bonus, Nimmo is also a solid defender who can play all three outfield positions. 

Sign LHP Andrew Chafin to a 2 year/$20M contract

The Mariners boasted one of the best bullpens in the American League last season, but the one weakness within their formidable cache of arms was the absence of a reliable left-handed reliever. Anthony Misiewicz started the year as the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, but was eventually demoted to the minors and then traded to Kansas City for cash. Tommy Milone and Ryan Borucki each tried to fill the void but neither were successful. The Mariners acquired Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline – who was coming off the IL for a torn flexor tendon – hoping he could transition from starter to reliever.  Although Boyd showed better by posting a 1.35 ERA and 3.19 FIP, he was used sparingly (trust? health?) by manager Scott Servais.      

With Boyd now a free agent and reportedly looking for a rotation job, the Mariners find themselves again seeking a proven left-hander for their pen.  Veteran Andrew Chafin has been one of the better left-handed relievers throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, Chafin has averaged a 2.59 ERA and 3.14 FIP including a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP with the Tigers last year. Chafin doesn’t have the same velocity (91-92 mph) as fellow free agent lefty Taylor Rogers (95-96 mph) so it’s possible the Mariners could choose to go after the better power arm. But Chafin’s ability to tunnel his sinker/slider combo results in missing bats (87th percentile) and limiting hard contact (81st percentile). Additionally, Chafin keeps the ball on the ground where he produced a 51.3% ground ball rate in 2022 and has a 50.9% ground ball rate for his career.  Perhaps most important, Chafin rocks an epic 80’s mustache.  Done deal.       

Trade RHP Chris Flexen, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Emerson Hancock, and SS Michael Arroyo to the Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds

Since the end of the season, the Mariners and Mitch Haniger have publicly stated their mutual desire to work out a new contract to keep the veteran outfielder in Seattle for the 2023 season and beyond. However, statements by President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto indicating Haniger has “earned the right” to explore free agency throws into question whether the right fielder will be returning. One would think that if the mutual interest was as strong as both sides have presented it to be, then a deal would have been completed by now.  Or, at the least, there would be reports that the two sides were working on a new agreement. However, it appears both sides are exploring other options first.

Should Haniger sign elsewhere, a second outfielder will need to be acquired, and the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds should be near the top of the list. The Mariners looked into trading for Reynolds at the 2021 trade deadline but those talks quickly ended after the Pirates insisted on Julio being included in any potential deal. Reynolds’ 2022 numbers were not quite at the level of last season when he produced a .912 OPS and was worth 6.1 fWAR. But they were still solid ( 807 OPS, 2.9 fWAR) and with three seasons of team control left, the price will still be high to acquire the outfielder’s services.

With the Pirates reportedly seeking starting pitching help, the Mariners have the rotation pieces that should be able to meet that need: Chris Flexen and Emerson Hancock. Flexen is a solid mid-rotation starter who is durable, eats innings, and can immediately slot into the starting rotation. Since signing with Seattle two seasons ago, Flexen has averaged a 3.66 ERA and 4.15 FIP.  

Hancock, the Mariners No. 2 organizational prospect as well as top pitching prospect, possesses top-of-the rotation stuff. Hancock was the 6th player chosen in the 2020 draft and entered 2021 as the No. 57 ranked prospect in all of baseball. Early arm issues limited Hancock to just 12 games in 2021 causing him to fall off several top prospect lists. However, with those arm issues resolved in 2022, Hancock was back to form and posted a 3.75 ERA in 21 games at Class AA. Hancock is projected to join the Mariners rotation some time in 2023.  

In addition to Flexen and Hancock, the Mariners include outfielder Jarred Kelenic, the former No. 4 MLB prospect. Kelenic has yet to establish himself at the MLB level, but at the young age of 23 and just 147 MLB games under his belt, the Mariners believe it is just a matter of needing a bit more time at the MLB level before Kelenic starts to fulfill his lofty projections.  Kelenic could turn the corner next season, or it may not be until 2024. Although the Mariners still believe in Kelenic, the team is firmly in “win-now” mode and one has to question how long the organization can afford to wait? Finishing at 62-100 last season, the Pirates are still a few seasons away from being playoff contenders. Kelenic would be able to step right into the everyday lineup – joining fellow youngsters Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Calvin Mitchel – and continue his development while not being faced with the pressure of having to produce immediately.

Lastly, the Mariners include their No. 12 organizational prospect, Michael Arroyo, who was one of the top shortstops of this past international signing period. Arroyo was considered one of the more advanced pure hitters of his class and projects as a future five-tool player with above average power and hit skills. The Mariners thought highly enough of Arroyo to sign him for $1.3M and in his first taste of professional ball, the 17-year old did not disappoint, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, 2 triples and 4 home runs in the Dominican Summer League.   

Trade RHP Diego Castillo and OF Jesse Winker to the New York Yankees for 2B Gleyber Torres and RHP Randy Vasquez

With Adam Frazier leaving as a free agent, second base becomes another position where the Mariners can upgrade offensively. While much speculation has been about the Mariners signing Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaert or Dansby Swanson to play shortstop and then moving JP Crawford to 2B, the reality is that the Mariners are unlikely to offer the required 7 to 9 year contract to land any of the four aforementioned players.  Rather, the Mariners will look to acquire a second baseman from a team that has a surplus at that position.  One of those teams is the New York Yankees who have Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and top prospect Oswald Peraza all capable of playing second base. 

Torres has yet to live up to the high expectations that made him the No. 6 MLB prospect entering 2018. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2019 with a .278/.337/.535 and 38 home runs, causing many to believe he was the next great Yankees superstar.  But since then, Torres has averaged a .256/.325/.406 and just 12 home runs. Most of the issues and frustrations regarding Torres since that breakout season have revolved around swing and miss tendencies resulting in high strikeouts and low walks. For all his talent and ability, Torres just hasn’t been able to find consistency with the bat. Reportedly, the Yankees were prepared to move on from Torres at last year’s trade deadline with a deal in place to acquire Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. For whatever reason, the Yankees nixed the deal at the last moment.

Despite the concerns, however, there is still much to like about Torres.  First is the .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs he produced in 2022, which would represent a significant upgrade over the .238/.301/.311 and three home runs the Mariners received from Adam Frazier. Additionally, Torres showed significant improvement in hitting the ball hard last season – evidenced by an average exit velocity, hard hit%, and barrel% that ranked in the 75th percentile or better. Exit velocity has become the golden measurement in today’s game when projecting future outcomes, and Torres’ average exit velocity last season was 90.4 mph which was above the major league average. Lastly, Torres produced a 4.1 UZR and 9 defensive runs saved playing the key stone last year.  With the shift going away in 2023, the Mariners have stated a priority on acquiring a second baseman who has the range and defensive chops of a shortstop. Torres, whose natural position is shortstop, seemingly fits that requirement. 

The Mariners also receive right-handed pitcher Randy Vazquez, New York’s No. 14 organizational prospect. Projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, Vasquez possesses a mid-90’s fastball along with a curveball whose high spin rate results in wicked drop. He also utilizes a lower arm slot that results in above average vertical break. That latter quality is something the Mariners would seemingly love to get their hands on and tinker with, much like how they did with Paul Sewald where they lowered his arm slot to increase his vertical approach angle. Vasquez lacks experience pitching in the upper minors, having logged just 21.1 innings at Class AA. But the Mariners have the depth to bring along Vasquez as they did with Matt Brash last year – spending the first few months in the minors transitioning him to a reliever, and then moving him up into their bullpen by mid-season.

With the Yankees looking to bolster their bullpen while also seeking a left fielder, the Mariners part with Diego Castillo and Jesse Winker.  Castillo still possesses above average stuff, and produced solid numbers last season with a 3.64 ERA and 3.68 FIP over 59 appearances. However, Castillo never seemed to fully settle in with the Mariners “closer by committee” scheme where the team deployed their high leverage relievers anywhere from the 7th to 9th innings depending on matchups. Every so often, Castillo struggled in situations where the game was not necessarily on the line. A switch back to a more defined 8th inning setup and/or 9th inning closer role would arguably be a better fit for Castillo. 

One of the biggest disappointments for the Mariners last season was Jesse Winker’s sudden drop in offense. Winker still got on base (.344 OBP) and showed high plate discipline (15.4% walk rate), but he struggled to drive the ball. It was a highly unexpected and perplexing turn of events for a player who came to Seattle as a career .288/.385/.504 hitter. The Mariners recently disclosed Winker dealt with neck and knee injuries throughout the season which may explain the sudden fall in production. Having already undergone minor surgeries to address both issues, the Mariners believe Winker’s bat will rebound next year. If that belief holds true, then moving on from Winker may not be the wisest move for a team needing more offense.  However, with the spacious Seattle outfield amplifying Winker’s defensive shortcomings last year, the Mariners are looking to improve their left field defense and have stated Winker will see the majority of time at designated hitter, which is counter to the team’s preference of not carrying a full-time designated hitter.  With Yankee Stadium being the fifth-smallest outfield in all of baseball, Winker’s defensive flaws would not be as big of a factor.   

Trade RHP Prelander Berroa and C Luis Torrens to the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Jake McCarthy

With Jarred Kelenic included in the trade for Bryan Reynolds, the Mariners will need to determine who their fourth outfielder will be. They could stay in-house with Taylor Trammell who has all the tools but is still trying to put it all together at the MLB level.  Another option is Jake McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks who finds himself in a log jam of young talented outfielders.  Despite not having the same prospect pedigree as others within the Arizona farm system, McCarthy produced an encouraging .283/.342/.427, eight home runs, and 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts in his first extended stint at the MLB level. Despite that, though, the Diamondback will presumably head into 2023 with top prospect Corbin Carroll joining former top prospects Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho in the Arizona outfield. That would leave McCarthy fighting for playing time with another former top prospect, Pavin Smith. 

With the Diamondbacks seeking bullpen help in addition to a backup catcher, the Mariners alleviate the outfield bottleneck by sending pitcher Prelander Berroa and catcher Luis Torrens to Arizona for McCarthy.  Across three levels in 2022 that ended in Class AA, Berroa posted a 2.86 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings as a starter. His fastball sits mid-90s and touches 99, along with a plus slider.  Like many young starting pitchers, Berroa needs to develop a reliable third pitch before landing in a MLB rotation. But his fastball/slider arsenal is considered major league ready. Berroa would probably need a bit of time to transition from starting pitcher to reliever, but by mid-season he could be a highly effective arm out of the Diamondbacks bullpen.   

Torrens has logged 181 games primarily as the team’s backup catcher over the past few seasons, but with veteran Tom Murphy expected back in 2023 after missing most of last season to injury, Torrens appears to not have a roster spot for 2023. The Mariners like Torrens’ potential with the bat, and with his defense continuing to improve they could carry three catchers as they have in the past.  But with Torrens out of minor league options, the smarter move would be to move Torrens in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with much of the same goals as last year: find a way to lengthen the lineup. The Mariners thought they had accomplished that by adding Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, but underperformance by Frazier and Winker, and yet another injury to Haniger, that cost him most of the season, left the offense far too reliant on the top half of the lineup to score runs.

With Brandon Nimmo and Bryan Reynolds added to the outfield, and Gleyber Torres sliding in at second base, the Mariners add three players who combined for 11 fWAR last season, an 8.7 fWAR upgrade over the three players they will be replacing in Haniger, Winker and Frazier.  Additionally, the Mariners significantly boost their on base abilities where Nimmo, Reynolds and Torres averaged a combined .340 OBP in 2022.  Nimmo and Reynolds could also be penciled into the top two spots of the lineup thereby pushing both Julio and France down in the order where they would have more opportunities to drive in runs.

The Mariners will go with the same five starting pitchers they ended the season with last year.  In a bit of an aberration, the Mariners were able to get through the entire season without a starting pitcher going down with injury.  That occurrence should not be counted on this year, and the team will turn to highly regarded prospects Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller in case of injury. The Mariners will also have the option of moving Matt Brash back into the rotation if that need presents itself.

While the bullpen was again a huge reason for the team’s success, the Mariners lacked a steadfast left-handed reliever.  The addition Andrew Chafin gives the team that proven high-leverage arm from the left side.  Randy Vasquez presents depth and a possible mid-season boost much like how Brash did last year.  An argument could be made that one more reliever needs to be added, especially with the trading away of Diego Castillo. But reports are that the Mariners are super high on Isaiah Campbell’s mid-season transition from starter to reliever last year, where after moving to the bullpen Campbell flashed a 95 to 98 mph fastball and an elite slider resulting in a 1.61 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 28 relief innings.  Look for Campbell to play a major role in the Mariners bullpen in 2023.

With the Trade Deadline Approaching, Mariners Should Look at Kevin Gausman

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Despite being 19 games above .500 with a record of 58-39 and in sole possession of the second wild card, the Mariners limped into the All-Star break losers of their last three series including a three game sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Now, after four days of regrouping, the Mariners will push off into the final 65 games of the season looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Part of that “regrouping” will include GM Jerry Dipoto surveying the MLB landscape in hopes of bringing aboard another pitcher prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline to help lessen the workload of his rotation.

In recent weeks, Dipoto has stated an interest in supplementing his rotation with another pitcher, whether that be a starter or reliever.

“[W]e’re not particularly looking to replace anybody because they have all been really strong contributors to what we’re doing. It’s a good group of five. If we have a chance to augment it, we will. But we’re not looking to replace anybody. They’ve all done such a nice job…The only real concern with our starting rotation is as the innings start to pile up, there’s going to be guys who go into innings thresholds and zones they’ve never been to before. We want to be conscious of that.”

Those “inning thresholds” Dipoto speaks of are primarily in regard to the Mariners’ two most inexperienced starters, Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Gonzales has already surpassed his career total in innings (113.1) while LeBlanc has tossed the most innings in a season (85.0 ) since 2010 when he started 25 games for the San Diego Padres and logged 146.0 innings.

But there is some concern regarding a couple of their veteran hurlers as well.

Last season, James Paxton set career highs in games started with 24 and innings pitched with 136.0. This year Paxton has already started 19 games and logged 118.2 innings, and will surely blow past his career highs set last year.

In a precautionary move aimed at taking advantage of the extra off days coinciding with the All-Star break, the Mariners placed Paxton on the 10-day disabled list after exiting his last start with back stiffness.

Felix Hernandez – with 19 starts and 105.1 innings pitched – has already surpassed the number of games started (16) and innings pitched (86.2) from last year’s injury riddled campaign, and is on pace to eclipse his 2016 totals.

And like Paxton, the Mariners placed Hernandez on the 10-day disabled list just before the All-Star break as a protective measure to rest a sore back.

Given the unease towards the rotation’s workload, and now the emergence of possible health issues to two of their experienced rotation pieces, the addition of another arm for the rotation would likely make the most sense for the Mariners.

With Dipoto not wanting to replace any of his current starters, the Mariners could conceivably utilize a six-man rotation allowing Gonzales and LeBlanc to share the fifth starter duties, and provide Paxton and Hernandez the ability to take a day off when needed.

Additionally, another starter would also provide insurance in case of injury and a subsequent stint on the disable list.

Of course, that begs the question: What starting pitcher is available that not only fits the Mariners needs, but is a realistic option in terms of cost?

In the past month, the Mariners have been connected to Cole Hamels of the Rangers, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Hamels and Happ are experienced pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, and either would help the Mariners.

However, both would be rentals as Happ is a free agent at the end of the season, and Hamels’ $20M team option for 2019 would surely be too expensive for the Mariners to pick up. It is difficult envisioning Dipoto spending the necessary prospects to acquire either of the veteran pitchers given the limited tenure that each bring with them.

Alternatively, Boyd would be a more attractive option as he will not be arbitration eligible until 2020, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2022 season.

But Boyd’s career 5.29 ERA (4.81 FIP), and 4.76 ERA this season (4.26 FIP) are numbers the Mariners could receive from in-house options such as Christian Bergman (career 5.54 ERA, 5.01 FIP), Roenis Elias (career 4.15 ERA, 4.33 FIP), or Erasmo Ramirez (career 4.48 FIP).

Others who have been mentioned as possible trade options for teams looking to add starting pitching are Tyson Ross of the Padres, James Shields of the White Sox, Kyle Gibson of the Twins, Matt Harvey of the Reds, Ivan Nova of the Pirates, and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rays.

All of the above-mentioned players could be helpful additions to the Mariners rotation. But questions regarding health (Ross, Eovaldi, Harvey) or production (Shields, Gibson, Nova) makes any cost-benefit analysis lean more towards doubtful than favorable.

One name that has received little trade deadline attention but who would fit nicely in the Mariners rotation is Kevin Gausman.

The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft and former No. 20 MLB prospect has been a solid fixture in the Orioles rotation since 2014.

Since joining the big league club in 2013, Gausman has produced a 4.22 ERA, (4.20 FIP, 3.95 xFIP), a 3.04 K/BB ratio and has averaged 5.7 innings per start. He is tracking those career numbers this season with a 4.33 ERA (4.46 FIP, 3.89 xFIP), 3.59 K/BB ratio, and averaging 5.9 innings per start.

While those numbers are solid, his inability to reach the expectations of becoming a Cy Young caliber ace has been a growing frustration for Orioles’ fans and organization.

But Gausman’s raw abilities can’t be ignored.

His fastball averages 94 mph and is still capable of touching upper 90’s. His changeup, often recognized as one of the best in baseball, sits low 80’s and has tremendous movement. And his slider bites suddenly and sharply making it an effective out pitch.

In addition, Gausman misses bats at an above league average rate (11.5 swSTR%), and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB rate).

Furthermore, Gausman is just entering his prime at age 27, is making a team-friendly $5.6M this year, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2020 season.

There have been no indications that the Orioles are willing to move Gausman, specifically. But with an aging roster and the second worst record in all of baseball, Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM Dan Duquette has stated his team will be moving forward with a rebuild of its roster and baseball operations.

If the Orioles are seriously committed to a complete overhaul, then Gausman should be available for the right offer. But what would that “right offer” have to be?

Any trade proposal would have to start with Kyle Lewis, the Mariners top prospect. It would then have to include a couple more top organizational prospects.

A starting point could be a package consisting of Lewis, starting pitcher Max Povse, and outfielder Anthony Jimenez.

Here, the Mariners would be trading the No. 67 overall rated MLB prospect (Lewis) along with their organization’s No.7 (Povse) and No. 13 (Jimenez) prospects. That package could be tweaked by adding a young player with some MLB experience such as Daniel Vogelbach or even Guillermo Heredia.

Which is reasonable considering last season:

–The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (age 27, 2.5 years of control) from the Athletics for two top-100 MLB prospects in infielder Jorge Mateo (#85) and right-handed starting pitcher James Kaprielian (#87), as well as outfield prospect Dustin Fowler.

–The Chicago Cubs acquired Jose Quintana (age 28, 1.5 years of control) from the Chicago White Sox for two top-100 MLB rated prospects in outfielder Eloy Jimenez (#14) and starting pitcher Dylan Cease (#97), in addition to first base prospect Matt Rose, and infield prospect Bryant Flete.

–The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander (age 34, 2.5 years of control) from the Detroit Tigers for one top-100 MLB rated prospect in starting pitcher Franklin Perez (#54), outfield prospect Daz Cameron (2016’s #74 rated prospect) and catching prospect Jake Rogers.

Gausman is not on the same level as Gray, Quintana, and even Verlander, so he’s not going to command two top-100 MLB prospects like those three did. However, his age, affordability, contract status, and upside should net the Orioles one mid to lower end top-100 prospect.

Naturally, parting with Lewis would be a tough pill to swallow given the dearth of blue chip talent in the Mariners’ minor league system.

Lewis is arguably the one Mariners prospect with star potential. However, early into his professional career, Lewis has already had to deal with a serious knee injury that has not only set back his development, but has raised question whether the knee can hold up to the wear and tear of playing center field.

Many in the Mariners organization believe a move to a corner outfield position is inevitable for Lewis, especially after the Mariners’ recent selection of centerfielder Josh Stowers in the second round of this year’s amateur draft.

If such a move occurs, it will present an interesting future dilemma for the Mariners.

With right field currently occupied for the foreseeable future by All-Star Mitch Haniger, Lewis’ path to the big leagues will lead him to left field.

Then there is 17-year-old Julio Rodriguez, slashing a robust .336/.422/.518 in the Dominican Summer League, who also profiles as a future corner outfielder and middle of the order power bat, and who is projected to reach the big leagues just a year or two after Lewis.

See the predicament?

With Haniger entrenched in right field, and both Lewis and Rodriguez on a trajectory towards left field, something – or someone – is going to have to give.

Considering these factors, if the Mariners believe Rodriguez is the real deal then moving Lewis for productive and controllable pitching makes sense.

Of course, the Mariners have been down this same road before with the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard trade. So naturally, there will be wariness.

But unlike Bedard, Gausman has been durable and injury free throughout his career.

And if the Mariners can get Gausman to take that next step, they will have found what every team dreams of finding: extreme value in impact starting pitching.

Hisashi Iwakuma and the Cy Young Award

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After a season like the one the Mariners just completed, I often feel like a part of me has been ripped from my core, tarred and feathered, and then thrown over a telephone wire for all to see.  Because at the beginning of every season, despite knowing better, I will lock away rational thought and say to anyone who will listen, “this is the year the Mariners could make some noise!”  And because I never learn my lesson, today after a 91 loss campaign, all I’m left with is the annual walk-of-shame where I offer up a “my bad” to all those who dared to not see the Mariners playing in October.

But in the midst of this shame, there comes a sliver of light in the form of post-season awards.  Because no matter how awful one’s team played, there is always the chance that someone will rise above the fog of ineptitude and actually perform their god-given talent better than anyone else.  And while it doesn’t change the past or necessarily offer hope for the future, it does something much more important.  It recoups a bit of lost dignity. It resurrects buried pride, even if for just a moment.

And that’s big.  It’s huge.

Because the next time you’re at a party, and your friends are giving you grief over Henry Blanco, or Aaron Harang, or any of the numerous choices the Mariners have to offer as examples of how to achieve 91 losses, you can hold your head high, stick out your chest, and utter the words Hisashi Iwakuma.  Because by doing so, I can almost guarantee you the room will suddenly go silent, your friends will take a step back, and that beautiful blonde you’ve been eyeing from across the room will finally take notice.

In a season full of disappointment, Kuma was anything but.  He not only established himself as a bona fide ace for a team that already had one in the form of King Felix, but he also proved to be one of the best pitchers in league.  Arguably, he was the lone bright spot for the Mariners this season.  Sure, Felix also had a good season.  But Felix wasn’t quite Felix.  And Kuma, this year, was simply better.

Which brings us to the Cy Young Award.  Now, I’m under no delusions that Kuma will actually win it.  Nor do I believe he should win it.  He certainly deserves to be mentioned, but there really is no sensible argument that would support Kuma winning the award.

But over at USS Mariner, Jeff Sullivan takes a stab at trying to convince otherwise.  Before I go any further, let me just say I enjoy Sullivan’s writing and analysis on the Mariners.  Lookout Landing has always been in my radius of interesting reads.  USSM? Well, that’s a discussion for another day.  But certainly LL.

In a nutshell, Sullivan relies on RA/9 to make his case for Kuma and the Cy Young.  And specifically, he focuses much of the attention on wOBA.   Now, I love wOBA.  It’s the stat I normally turn to first when evaluating players, especially from an offensive standpoint.  And it certainly is an important stat when evaluating pitching.  So I understand why Sullivan chose to go with it.

Sullivan assures us that there is an argument to be made for Kuma winning the Cy Young based on RA/9 and wOBA.  And I don’t necessarily doubt that.  The problem, though, is that an argument can be made for just about anything.  Just ask my 10-year-old daughter.  She does a fantastic job of making arguments…in regard to just about everything.  This is not to say Sullivan is on equal footing as my daughter, but, more to the point, just because an argument can be made, doesn’t really mean there is an actual argument to be made.

Sullivan’s position is that preventing runners from scoring is a pitcher’s most important job.  And a pitcher does that by preventing batters from getting on base, especially when runners are already occupying the base paths.

And clearly Kuma excelled in this category in 2013.  As Sullivan points out, Kuma’s RA/9 was a league best 2.83, buoyed by a wOBA with runners on base of .248.  And if RA/9 and wOBA were the sole criteria to be used in judging the Cy Young Award, then Kuma should win it.  By a landslide.

And this is where Sullivan goes a bit astray – by relying solely on RA/9 and, more narrowly, wOBA with runners on base, to make his case.

Now, if you are familiar with the guys over at USSM, they like to pride themselves of being objective via their focus on advanced metrics.  Try and infuse debate that isn’t premised in advanced metrics?  It’s a sure way to get mocked and laughed at.

Or banned.

Don’t believe me?  Just go over there and argue for something like, say, lineup protection. Or clutch hitting.  Or the importance of wins by a pitcher.

You’ll become enemy #1 faster than Pat Gillick can put together a playoff caliber MLB roster.

Which is why I’m surprised at how Sullivan chose to approach his position.  Because unless my liberal studies degree has failed me, I’m pretty sure looking at just one – or even two – statistical measures is anything but objective analysis.  Especially when it comes to an award given to the best overall pitcher in each league.  And I say best overall pitcher because the award should be based on multiple factors, not just one, regardless of how important you believe that one factor is.

If we look at Kuma’s wOBA with the bases empty, he falls to 10th in the league at .287.  Not that 10th in the league is horrible, but it’s also not stellar.  Clearly Kuma’s elevated wOBA with the bases empty is attributed to his serving up 19 home runs – 7th most in the league (also, not stellar).  But Kuma also gave up 124 hits in 139.2 innings pitched.  If we look at, say, Max Scherzer – who ranked 1st in wOBA with the bases empty, he gave up 19 fewer hits while pitching only one less inning.

Broaden the voting criteria a little bit and Kuma ranks 5th in OPS against (not bad), 9th in Quality Starts Percentage (uh oh), 11th in SLG against (yikes), and 12th in WAR (ouch).

Still think Kuma should win the Cy?

Scherzer led the league in WHIP, OBP against, OPS against, and WAR, while finishing 2nd in Quality Starts Percentage, BA against, and SLG against.

Which isn’t to say Scherzer should win the Cy.  But, rather, the more you add to the equation, the less Kuma looks like a Cy Young Award winner, even with his league leading RA/9.

So, with the whole wOBA discussion, perhaps it’s just best to say that Kuma excelled at cleaning up his own mess.  Which is still fantastic.  Just maybe not ideal.  And probably not enough to try to convince anyone that Kuma should win the Cy Young.

Because, personally, one walk-of-shame this season is enough.