After six months of playing pretty ghastly baseball, the Seattle Mariners concluded their first year of “stepping back” with a much clearer vision of what the future may look like, and the success that will hopefully come with it.
Despite finishing the season with a 68-94 record, the Mariners saw improvement in many key areas important to their rebuilding effort thereby providing the organization, and fans alike, encouragement that the plan is progressing in the right direction.
The minor league system received strong performances from most of the organization’s top prospects, led by Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Jake Fraley, and Evan White. As a result, a farm system ranked as one of the worst in baseball prior to the start of the 2019 season found itself in the top ten by year’s end.
Additionally, many of the prospects being counted upon in the rebuilding effort were not only able to make the jump to the majors, but also find some success in their first exposure against the game’s top talents.
JP Crawford and Shed Long displayed the offense, defense, and teamwork to affirm their status as the Mariners’ middle infield of the future. Kyle Lewis’ torrent start to his MLB career reminded fans why he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball before suffering a devastating knee injury in 2016. Despite inconsistency, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn showed flashes of dominance lending credence to each player’s top prospect billing. And Erik Swanson, Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, and Sam Tuivailala provided a glimpse into the type of young talented arms that will comprise the team’s bullpen in the years to come.
The progress and achievements made by the Mariners’ minor leaguers and young rookies receiving their first taste of major league competition was about all Dipoto could have asked for in the first year of his abridged rebuilding plan. Now, heading into the second phase of the step-back, the plan is to let the kids play.
Describing what to expect in 2020, Dipoto explained, “We’re looking at our young group and wanting to let them run with it. That’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”
Dipoto continued, “As far as the position player group, I think most of what we’re going to do has already been done…that’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”
In other words, the Mariners’ roster heading into 2020 is, for the most part, already set. That is not to say Dipoto won’t be looking to add a few pieces. A couple veteran relievers would be welcomed additions to a bullpen that will be short on experience. In addition, a starting pitcher or two will be needed to help fill out a rotation that returns just two starters from last season. However, while Dipoto has stated he will be keeping his eyes open for players that can help in either of those two areas, no one should be expecting any flashy acquisitions. With the goal to give as much playing time as possible to the younger players, any veterans added will surely be on short-term deals so as to not block the progress of prospects, and to allow those veteran acquisitions to be easily traded should/when that need arises.
What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2020 Mariners. So, without further ado…
The Moves
- Trade 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Dan Altavilla to the Cubs for SP/RP Tyler Chatwood
The Skinny: Three reasons make this trade is a no-brainer: 1) The Mariners will be targeting a veteran starting pitcher for their rotation; 2) Dee Gordon is currently blocking Shed Long at 2B; and 3) The Cubs are searching for stability at 2B. With both Gordon and Chatwood in the final years of their respective contracts that pay each player nearly the same, a Gordon-for-Chatwood swap seems primed for the making.
- Trade OF/DH Domingo Santana to the White Sox for LHP Jace Fry and INF Danny Mendick.
The Skinny: Domingo Santana’s year-long defensive struggles in the outfield demonstrated that the power hitter’s best position is at DH. However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at the position, the team finds itself with the less-than-ideal prospect of having to use Santana in the outfield again in 2020. The White Sox finished the season ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in home runs, and are faced with losing a handful of hitters to free agency, including Jose Abreu and his 33 HRs and league leading 123 RBI.
- Trade Tom Murphy to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Patrick Weigel
The Skinny: With Brian McCann’s retirement and Francisco Cervelli a free agent, the Braves will be in the market for someone who, at the least, can share in the starting catcher duties should they pick up Tyler Flowers’ option. With Tom Murphy’s surprise showing in 2019 (.858 OPS, 18 HRs) the Mariners have one to offer in exchange for something all rebuilding teams desire: a high upside major league ready pitching prospect.
- Sign SP Kendall Graveman to a one year, $2.5M deal
The Skinny: With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone free agents, the Mariners will need to find a few arms to fill out their rotation. Baring trades, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi should be locks for the rotation, with top pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn given every chance to win rotation jobs out of Spring Training. Kendall Graveman missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Projected to be healthy for 2020, Gravemen presents the ideal low risk/high reward player to slot into the back of the rotation.
- Sign RHP Pedro Strop to a one year, $6M deal
The Mariners bullpen will rely on a handful of young high-octane arms age 26 and younger. Adding an established veteran or two would help provide balance to a relief corps that lacks experience. One of the better set-up men in baseball, Pedro Strop struggled through an injury plagued 2019 season where he posted some of the worst numbers of his career. Looking to bounce back in 2020, Strop offers the Mariners an experienced arm that can bridge to the 9th inning or close.
- Sign C’s Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training
With Tom Murphy traded to Atlanta, the Mariners will need to find someone to serve as a backup catcher to Omar Narvaez. With Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre, the Mariners bring back two familiar faces to battle for the backup catcher role. The Mariners do have top catching prospect Cal Raleigh knocking on the MLB door, but a call-up may not be in the cards until September. Austin Nola is also capable of filling the backup catcher role, but he will most likely be the starting first baseman until Evan White is ready to take over, which should be sometime after July.
The 25-Man
Infield: 1B Austin Nola ($555K); 2B Shed Long ($555K); SS JP Crawford ($555K); 3B Kyle Seager ($19.5M); C Omar Narvaez ($2.9M)
Outfield: LF Kyle Lewis ($555K); CF Mallex Smith ($2.7M); RF Mitch Haniger ($3.0M)
Designated Hitter: Daniel Vogelbach ($559M)
Bench: OF Jake Fraley ($555K); UT Danny Mendick ($555K); C Jesus Sucre/Jose Lobaton ($750K)
Rotation: Marco Gonzales ($1.0M); Yusei Kikuchi ($16.0M); Justus Sheffield ($555K); Justin Dunn ($555K); Tyler Chatwood ($13.0M)
Bullpen: Tyler Guilbeau (L) ($555K); Jace Fry (L) ($569K); Erik Swanson ($555K); Sam Tuivailala ($900K); Art Warren ($555K); Gerson Bautista ($555K); Patrick Weigel ($555K); Pedro Strop ($6.0M).
The Wrap
With the plan to hand the reins over to the organization’s young players while filling needs in-house, the Mariners won’t be looking to add a whole lot during the offseason other than a handful of players who can supplement a youthful roster and serve as safety nets in case any struggle. The Mariners still have a couple trade chips in Marco Gonzales and Mitch Haniger, both of whom could bring back significant returns. But the Mariners would be best to hold onto both players as Gonzales has established himself as a quality (and affordable) starter for a rotation short on quality (and affordable) starters and, after an injury plagued 2019 season, a trade of Haniger would see the Mariners selling low(er) on the former All-Star and MVP candidate.
In assessing the Mariners needs, the first order of business is to find a taker for Dee Gordon who is blocking Shed Long at 2B.
In his first taste of MLB action, Long slashed a .263/.333/.454 in 42 games, including a .289/.337/.518 in 23 September games, and formed a productive keystone combination with SS JP Crawford. Gordon has never produced with the Mariners as he did with Miami where he won a batting title and two stolen base crowns. However, some (much?) of that can be blamed on injuries. After his first 45 games in 2018, Gordon fractured his toe and was placed on the injured list along with a .304 batting average and league leading 16 stolen bases. The toe never fully healed, and Gordon struggled for the rest of year as a result. Last season Gordon, again, got off to a solid start hitting .304 with 10 stolen bases in his first 38 games. However, a JA Happ fastball off his right wrist, again, landed Gordon on the injured list. Then in July, Gordon found himself back on the injured list with a strained quad.
Nevertheless, when healthy, Gordon displayed the type of speed, defense, and hitting ability that saw him average a .309/.340/.384 and 49 stolen bases over three seasons with the Marlins. Gordon’s biggest drawback, of course, is a contract that owes him $14.5M for the 2020 season including a $1M buyout in 2021. To trade him, Seattle would have to cover a large portion of the money owed to Gordon, or take on a similar contract.
The Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood to a 3 year/$38M deal as a free agent in 2017. However, Chatwood struggled in his first year as a starter, producing a 4-6 record and a 5.16 ERA in 20 starts. Relegated to the bullpen for most of last season, Chatwood found greater success as a reliever posting a 3.67 ERA in 33 appearances. Now in the final year of his deal, Chatwood is set to earn $13M in 2020 from a Cubs team looking to find some consistency at 2B where seven players started at least 13 games at the position in 2019.
With Gordon due $1.5M more than Chatwood, the Cubs may not be willing to take on additional money in a straight across trade, or may feel that Gordon, alone, is not enough in return for a player who did produce decent numbers as a long reliever. In any event, the Mariners may have to include an extra piece in the deal such as Dan Altavilla who, despite a tantalizing 98 mph fastball and some success at the MLB level, is now out of options and still looking to establish himself as a major league reliever.
The Mariners acquired Domingo Santana with the hope that the slugger could revert to the offensive force he was in 2017 when he slashed .278/.371/.505 and 30 HRs. To the delight of the Mariners, Santana was on pace to replicate those numbers with a .286/.354/.496 and 18 home runs in his first 90 games. However, right elbow inflammation suffered in July and a subsequent month-long stint on the injured list in August derailed what had been an impressive offensive showing to that point.
While Santana’s offense was a bright spot, his defense was a different story. Santana produced a -23.8 UZR/150 and -10 DRS in left field, and -18.1 UZR/150 and -7 DRS in right field. Now knowing these defensive shortcomings, a move to DH is in order. However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at DH, getting Santana into the everyday lineup would require playing him in the field where his porous defense negates any offensive value.
The White Sox primarily employed Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, and Wellington Castillo at DH in 2019. However, with Abreu and Castillo both free agents, and Alonso released mid season, the White Sox will be in the market for a few bats to help bolster an offense that was one of the worst in the American League. Specifically, adding power to its lineup should be on the White Sox’s to-do list, where Santana’s bat would fit nicely into the team’s opening at DH.
In return, the Mariners would receive left-handed reliever Jace Fry. Despite an underwhelming 4.75 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 2019, Fry still managed to carry an 11.13 K/9 and a 57% ground ball rate. More importantly, Fry held left-handed batters to just a .193 average while producing an 11.25 K/9 and a 63% ground ball rate. Fry would join Taylor Guilbeau as the other lefty out of the bullpen. Additionally, the Mariners also receive utility player Danny Mendick who, prior to last season, never ranked among the White Sox’s top 30 prospects. However, the 26 year old’s surprising .279/.368/.444 at Triple A landed him at No. 26 by year’s end. The White Sox rewarded Mendick with a September call-up where he produced a respectable .308/.325/.462 in 16 games. With the White Sox already having Leury Garcia in the utility role, Mendick’s ability win a roster spot in the coming seasons could be difficult. With the Mariners, Mendick would represent an upgrade over Dylan Moore who served the utility role for the team last year.
Acquiring Tom Murphy from the Giants for minor leaguer Jesus Ozoria may have been one of the top unheralded moves in baseball last year. Failing to establish himself with Colorado over four seasons, the Rockies released Murphy prior to the 2019 season. The Giants picked him up and promptly flipped him to Seattle where the former top prospect produced the best numbers of his career with a .273/.324/.535 and 18 HRs in 75 games. With Omar Narvaez returning as the starting catcher, and Austin Nola capable of catching if needed, the Mariners should look to take advantage of a thin free agent catching market where several teams are searching for upgrades.
With Atlanta one of those teams, the Mariners would be wise to sell high on Murphy. Here, the Mariners send Murphy to the Braves for the team’s No. 12 rated prospect in Patrick Weigel. The 25-year-old was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2016 when Weigel went a combined 11-6 with a 2.47 ERA between Single-A and Double-A. Primed to break into the Braves rotation in 2017, Weigel underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his throwing elbow. In his first full season back last season, Weigel split time between Double-A and Triple-A where he made a combined 18 starts with a 3.20 ERA, and 10 relief appearances with a 1.35 ERA. With a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s, Weigel projects as a middle to backend starter. Yet, in shorter outings, Weigel can run his fastball up into the high 90’s thereby making scouts believe he could thrive in a late inning set-up role or even as a closer.
From 2015 to 2017, Kendall Graveman posted a record of 22-24 with a 4.11 ERA over 71 starts while with the Athletics. However, in July of 2018, Graveman underwent Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his throwing arm requiring him to miss most of the 2019 season. The Cubs signed Graveman that offseason to a league minimum one-year deal with a $3M option for 2020. The hope was for Graveman to be able to recover by the end of last year and then help the Cubs the following season as a starter or reliever. Ultimately, however, the Cubs decided not to pick up Graveman’s option.
With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone all free agents, the Mariners need to find a few arms to round out their rotation. Justus Sheffield is being counted on to fill one of the spots behind returning starters Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi. And Justin Dunn will be provided every opportunity to earn another rotation job. The proposed trades for Tyler Chatwood and Patrick Weigel could result in one or both winning spots in the rotation. Additionally, the Mariners will take long looks at prospects Logan Gilbert, Ricardo Sanchez, and Anthony Misiewicz. Of course, any starting staff relying on a handful of untested rookies and/or veterans trying to recapture past glory should recognize the inherent risks associated with such a plan. Therefore, adding depth to the rotation will be important. Graveman provides the ideal veteran to stash in Triple-A due to the fact he will need to spend some time in the minors to build up arm strength, but also has a minor league option left. As such, the Mariners can offer Graveman a major league deal, send him to Tacoma to start the season, and then bring him up when ready and needed.
One area the Mariners could see the most improvement in during the 2020 season is the bullpen. Much of 2019 was spent auditioning young’ish relievers who, despite still offering some upside, were released by other teams. By August, the auditioning seemingly stopped and the Mariners settled on a group of relievers that included Sam Tuivailala, Erik Swanson, Art Warren, Matt Magill, Austin Adams, and Taylor Guilbeau. Over the last two months of the season, that group helped combine for a 4.54 ERA and 4.48 FIP ranking them 8th and 9th respectively in the American League. While far from dazzling, those numbers proved to be an improvement over the 4.90 ERA and 5.08 FIP produced by the Mariners bullpen in the four preceding months, ranking them near the bottom in the AL.
A quality veteran reliever (or two) should be targeted to bolster a projected young and inexperienced bullpen. Over the past six seasons, Pedro Strop has been one of the top relievers in baseball. However, 2019 saw Strop turn in one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether it was age finally catching up to the 34-year-old, or the nagging hamstring issues that landed him on the injured list twice, Strop’s 4.97 ERA was a far cry from the 2.61 ERA he had averaged over the prior five seasons. Still, Strop managed a 10.58 K/9 and induced ground balls at a 52.9% rate. It’s not unreasonable to believe that a return to health from his leg issues should result in Strop getting back to numbers closer to his career norms. Moreover, Strop’s experience closing – where he has racked up 23 saves over the past two seasons – could prove vital for a Mariners bullpen hoping to find a closer among its many relief prospects.
Mariners’ fans may remember Jesus Sucre’s tenure with the team when he served as a backup for parts of four seasons from 2013 to 2016. Sucre doesn’t bring much with the bat, but he has always been an above average defender. Sucre began 2019 with the Orioles big league team but after producing a .210/.269/.242 in 20 games he accepted an assignment to Triple-A. Labaton spent most of 2019 as the starting catcher at Tacoma until traded to the Dodgers in August for cash considerations. A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Lobatan does not offer the type of defense that Sucre brings, but his bat is a bit more potent, and his ability to switch-hit offers the Mariners a left-handed compliment to the right-handed hitting Narvaez. Either catcher would offer affordable veteran depth until top catching prospect Cal Raleigh joins the Mariners, presumably at some point during the second half of the season.
Conclusion
The Mariners two biggest question marks heading into 2020 will be the rotation and bullpen. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will try to win jobs behind Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi. Not taking any chances, the Mariners hedge their bets with the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, and Patrick Weigel, all of whom are capable of starting but could also be used in relief. Jace Fry adds experience to a bullpen that will consist mainly of relievers with no more than one year of MLB service time to their name. And Pedro Strop’s experience in the closer’s role could help alleviate any possible problems should the Mariners not find a closer among their group of young, high upside relievers.
Moreover, none of the acquisitions hinder prospect development, and all come with team friendly contracts that allow each to be easily traded if need be.
Dipoto has made it clear that most of the playing time in the coming season will be provided to those players who figure prominently in the organization’s foreseen 2021 launching point for playoff contention. As such, the Mariners primary focus should be to acquire players who can support, guide, and nurture the inexperience that will seemingly saturate the 25-man roster, and the offseason moves mentioned above hopefully do just that.
Mission:Mariner 