Tag Archives: Mariners Offseason Outlook

Seattle Mariners Preview, Offseason Outlook

The 2014 offseason is upon us, and now that the Mariners have solved their first order of business this offseason by hiring Lloyd McClendon as their new manager, GM Jack Zduriencik can now go to work addressing the team’s many on-field needs.

The most glaring holes are on offense.  Failing to address the Mariners’ lack of offense has been a constant under Zduriencik.  Last year, the Mariners scored 624 runs, fourth worst in the American League.  As bad as that seems, it was the first time since Zduriencik took over as GM that the Mariners did not produce the worst runs scored total in the league.  Finding areas to improve the offense should not be a problem, as the Mariners are currently lacking starting outfielders, a designated hitter, and a starting catcher.  On the pitching side of things, the Mariners had one of the best one-two starting duos in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  However, once past the top of the rotation, the Mariners struggled to get quality starts from the rest of their starters.   The Mariners relief corps was a mess in 2014, allowing the 2nd most runs, 2nd highest ERA, 2nd highest batting average against, 2nd highest WHIP, and 4th most blown saves in the league.

The offseason plan centers around the Mariners increasing payroll to $100 million for 2014.  With shrewd, aggressive moves in free agency and one bold trade, the Mariners can remake their lineup without surrendering much of their young prospects, all while staying under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Michael Saunders and INF/OF Stefen Romero to the Milwaukee Brewers for CF Carlos Gomez

There is a lot of talk of the Mariners going out and signing free agent Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7-year, $100 million plus mega deal to take over center field and bat leadoff.  As great as Ellsbury would look patrolling the outfield for the Mariners, it will take a huge commitment from Zduriencik to land the 30-year old outfielder.  Which raises the question as to whether or not the Mariners should make that kind of long term investment on a player about to enter the backside of their career?   By trading for Gomez, the Mariners would shore up their centerfield and leadoff needs with one of the games top up-and-coming players, and at a salary much less than what it would cost to obtain Ellsbury.  In return for Gomez, the Brewers would receive an elite, young, cost-controlled rotation arm, one of the organizations top outfield prospects, and two big league players with upside who could step right into the starting lineup.

Sign OF Carlos Beltran to a 2 year, $28 million contract

The Mariners continue their search for outfield help by signing the 37-year old Beltran to man right field.  Despite his age, Beltran is coming off a productive 2013 where he posted a .296/.339/.491 and 24 homeruns.

Sign C Carlos Ruiz to a 2 year, $15 million contract

If there was one thing the Mariners should have learned from last season, it was that top prospect Mike Zunino was nowhere close to being ready to hit big league pitching.  In 52 games after being rushed up from the minors, Zunino posted a .214/.290/.329.  Ruiz is coming off a disappointing 2013 where he put up a .268/.320/.368, but would still be an upgrade offensively as well as providing solid defense behind the plate.

Sign DH/1B Corey Hart to a 1 year, $7 million contract with incentives

Along with an Ellsbury signing, the other constant heard around the hot stove is the Mariners re-signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a multi-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million per year.  Morales is a solid hitter, but he lacks the ability to play any other position, and makes Jesus Montero look like Jesse Owens on the base paths.  Hart would be a cheaper alternative to Morales, with higher upside in almost every offensive category.  Health, of course, is the big question with Hart.  But if his leg is healed, Hart could provide big numbers in the cleanup spot.

Sign OF’s Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth to respective 2 year, $10 million contracts

Here, the Mariners fill their LF need via platoon.  Last season Davis posted a .319/.383/.474 against LHP while McLouth produced a .272/.342/.411 against RHP.  Both players are above average defenders, can play all three outfield positions, and are adept base runners.  While free agent Shin-Soo Choo will command upwards to $20 million per year, the Mariners would receive the same production from a Davis/McLouth platoon, but at a fraction of the cost.

Sign SP Phil Hughes to a 2 year, $15 million contract

With Joe Saunders’ option not being picked up, the Mariners are in search of a #3 starter to slot in behind Felix and Iwakuma and Hughes offers the best upside to fill that need.   Last year, Hughes was battered at Yankee Stadium allowing a .909 OPS against, 17 homeruns, and a 6.32 ERA.  But on the road, Hughes allowed a far better .735 OPS,  7 homeruns, and a 3.88 ERA.  Moving out of Yankee Stadium and into a the more pitcher friendly Safeco Field would likely see Hughes’ overall number regress closer to last season’s road numbers.  And unlike most of the rotation arms available, Hughes is on the right side of 30, turning only 28 during the upcoming season.

Resign OF/DH/1B Raul Ibanez to a 1 year, $5 million contract

Last season, Ibanez showed he still had plenty of offense left in the tank, belting 29 homeruns and putting up a .487 slugging percentage.  But his poor outfield defense nearly negated his offensive contributions.  With Smoak departed to Milwaukee as part of the Gomez deal, Ibanez would take over as the starting 1B where his defensive shortcomings would be limited.  Ibanez has played 1B before in his career, so the position would be familiar territory.  And if health permitted, the Mariners could have Hart take some innings at 1B with Ibanez moving to DH.

Re-sign RP Oliver Perez to a 2 year, $6 million contract

Perez had a solid 2014 season, limiting LH hitters to a .238 average, a .288 slugging percentage, while striking out nearly a third of the batters faced.  Perez, however, struggled in the walk department, issuing 14 free passes to left handed hitters, accounting for his .358 OBP against.

Starting Lineup

  1. Carlos Gomez (R) CF
  2. Brad Miller (L) SS
  3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
  4. Corey Hart (R) DH
  5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
  6. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
  7. Raul Ibanez (L) 1B
  8. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth LF
  9. Nick Franklin (S) 2B

Bench

  1. Mike Zunino (L) C
  2. Dustin Ackley (L) INF/OF
  3. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth OF
  4. Carlos Triunfel (R) INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez (R)
  2. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
  3. Phil Hughes (R)
  4. James Paxton (L)
  5. Erasmo Ramirez (R)

Relief

  1. Charlie Furbush (L)
  2. Stephen Pryor (R)
  3. Yoervis Medina (R)
  4. Carter Capps (R)
  5. Oliver Perez (L)
  6. Danny Farquhar (R)
  7. Tom Wilhelmsen (R)

Conclusion

With the additions of Gomez, Beltran, Davis and McClouth, the Mariners would field one of the top defensive outfields in the American League.   Hart would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter, while Ruiz would allow Zunino to move to the backup catching role where he could more comfortably ease into the starting catchers role.  Ibanez would provide a short term solution at 1B until D.J Peterson is ready to make the jump to the big leagues, or until the Mariners were able to find a more suitable long term solution.  The bench would be deep and flexible, with Ackley able to play the infield or the outfield, Triunfel able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and Davis and McLouth able to handle any of the outfield positions.  Hughes would serve as a legitimate #3 starter, while the back end of the rotation – relying on youngsters James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez – would be an upgrade over Brandon Maurer, Blake Beaven, and Aaron Harang.   With improved starting pitching, a return to form from closer Wilhelmsen, and full seasons from Medina and Farquhar, the bullpen should be an improvement over last year.

All said and done, total payroll for 2014 would come in at $98.9 million