The Seattle Mariners entered the 2023 season picked by most experts to make the playoffs.  At season’s end, the M’s fell short of expectations, finishing one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card berth. 

President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, fell on the proverbial baseball sword, conceding he didn’t do enough during the offseason to improve the lineup. Of his four main offensive acquisitions – Teoscar Hernandez, AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong, and Tommy La Stella – only Hernandez came close to his expected production and remained with the team for the entire season.  

Pollock, acquired to crush left handed pitching, produced a woeful .135/.188/.363 against lefties and was dealt to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline for a player to be named later. The Mariners couldn’t find takers for Wong, .165/.241/.227, or La Stella, .190/.292/.238, and both were released, the latter just 31 games into the season.

While Dipoto was correct that more could have been done, a good share of the blame also rested on a veteran offensive core that failed to show for most of the first half.

Through June, the Mariners’ offense ranked 19^th in all of MLB with an underwhelming 95 wRC+.  The likes of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez posted league average or worse offensive numbers that helped contribute to a 38-42 start.  

A huge offensive turnaround in July and August (130 wRC+) saw the Mariners sitting atop the AL West as late as September 3.  However, with the Mariners in control of their playoff destiny, the offense (95 wRC+), starting pitching (4.69 FIP), and bullpen (4.90 FIP) stalled over the final month resulting in 17 losses across the team’s final 29 games.

As the Mariners head into the offseason, Dipoto has stated the team’s primary objective is to upgrade the offense with hitter’s better skilled at making contact and putting the ball in play. Among all teams in ’23, the Mariners finished with the second most strikeouts and third fewest batted balls put in play. This combination proved detrimental when it came to moving runners into scoring position and driving them in.  The front office has stated it will explore both trades and free agents to make this necessary improvement.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2024 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade SP Bryce Miller, OF Jarred Kelenic, and OF Zach DeLoach to the Rays for OF Randy Arozarena and 2B Brandon Lowe

The skinny: The Mariners are looking for offensive upgrades and would love another impact bat to pair with Julio Rodriguez. The Rays need starting pitching help and – as is their yearly tradition – are looking to cut payroll.  Here, the Mariners help the Rays out by taking a projected $18M off their books for ’24 with the acquisitions of Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe. In return, the Mariners send the Rays young fireballer Bryce Miller who posted a 3.98 FIP over 25 starts in his rookie campaign, outfielder Jarred Kelenic who produced a .746 OPS, and minor league outfielder Zach DeLoach who slashed a .286/.387/.481 and hit 23 home runs at Class AAA.    

Trade SP Emerson Hancock and OF Taylor Trammell to the Twins for OF Max Kepler and C Jair Camargo

The skinny: The Twins find themselves in the unenviable position of wanting to add starting pitching while needing to cut payroll by upwards of $25M. Max Kepler produced one of his best seasons last year by slashing .260/.332/.484 but the $10M he will earn in ’24 makes him a prime candidate to be moved. Former top prospect Emerson Hancock broke into the majors last season where he started three games and produced a 4.09 FIP. Despite being shut down for the year due to a shoulder strain, Hancock is expected to be fully recovered for the ’24 season. 

The teams also swap outfielder Taylor Trammell, who is out of options with the Mariners and catcher Jair Camargo, who is likely to be left unprotected by the Twins in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.    

Sign P Yariel Rodriguez to a 4 year, $35M deal

The skinny: After trading Miller to the Rays, the Mariners add pitching depth by signing Yariel Rodriguez who features a high-90’s fastball and an array of above average secondary pitches. The 26-year-old was a starter during his playing days in Cuba (2015-2020) but after signing to play professionally in Japan with the Chunichi Dragons, Rodriguez was used exclusively in relief where he posted a 10-10 record, 3.03 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 79 relief appearances. Rodriguez joined Team Cuba’s rotation for the ’23 World Baseball Classic, making two starts and posting a 2.45 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings pitched. 

Sign 3B Justin Turner to a 2 year, $20M deal

The skinny: Don’t let age fool you.  The 38-year-old Justin Turner showed he still has the offensive goods in 2023 by slashing a .276/.345/.455 with 23 tanks and displaying above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills.  That type of production compelled the veteran to turn down a $13.4M player option for 2024 in hopes of landing a more lucrative multi-year deal.  Turner should be able to find that with a Mariners team seeking Turner’s offensive production and skill-set.

Sign C Victor Caratini to a 2 year, $8M deal

The skinny: After producing an .879 OPS over the past two seasons, back-up catcher Tom Murphy finds himself in demand as a free agent. The Mariners would love to bring Murphy back, but retaining his services may prove too expensive and risky given Murphy’s recent struggles with health.  Rather than overpay for the 32-year-old, the Mariners pivot and sign Victor Caratini.  The switch hitter offers good plate discipline and solid contact skills where he slashed .259/.327/.383 with an 8.4% walk rate and just a 19.9% strikeout rate in 2023.  Defensively, Caratini possesses a below average arm but is solid at blocking and framing pitches, and handles a pitching staff well.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with one main goal: to improve the offense by cutting down on strikeouts and improving contact.

While the organization has embraced high strikeouts over the past few years as long as those strikeouts were accompanied by power and impact, Dipoto has decided a new direction is needed after last year’s lineup was plagued by far too many whiffs. The Mariners’ front office has not delved into all the specifics for this philosophical change, but one would have to assume the new MLB rule changes – resulting in more base hits and stolen bases – were a prominent factor. These changes have placed less importance on homeruns and more importance on putting the ball in play.

The first move in this quest is pulling off a blockbuster trade. The 28-year-old Arozarena will be entering the second of four arbitration years and the ever cost-conscience Rays will be faced with paying their star outfielder more than double of what he earned last season, and more over each of the next two seasons. Arozarena produced a .254/.364/.425, 23 home runs, a 126 wRC+ last season, and would slot nicely into left field for the Mariners.

Given the fact the team already has the recently acquired Josh Rojas as well as Dylan Moore capable of handling the keystone, second baseman Brandon Lowe is a bit of a redundant acquisition. But the Mariners need more offense and Lowe represents a potentially significant offensive boost.

Two seasons ago the former all-star put up an .863 OPS and hit 39 homeruns. Since then, however, injuries have slowed Lowe as he’s dealt with neck and lower back issues. When healthy, Lowe is a highly productive hitter, and his 117 wRC+ last year would have been fourth best among the team’s regulars. In terms of where to use Lowe, he could be moved between second base, designated hitter, and perhaps even the outfield where he has previously logged time. Or, more likely, Lowe would become the primary option at second base with Rojas moving into a super utility role. In other words, if the Rays are open to including Lowe in a cost cutting deal, the Mariners shouldn’t be afraid of adding him as there are several ways he can be utilized in a lineup.

The decision to include Kelenic along with Miller could be controversial depending on how one envisions his ongoing development and fit with the team.

Kelenic showed improved production last season but still struggled with contact (69.7%) and continued to be susceptible to off-speed and breaking pitches. Still, the 24-year-old has an all-star player ceiling and Kelenic’s progress last season (.253/.327/.419, 108 wRC+) should be taken as a sign that such upside still exists. The Mariners, though, are in win-now mode and are looking for redemption after a disappointing 2023 season. As such, including Kelenic in a deal for two established hitters is a cost worth paying.

If Miller and Kelenic are not enough, the Mariners could sweeten the deal by adding a prospect like outfielder Zach DeLoach, the team’s 25th ranked prospect. DeLoach has long been favorably looked upon by Mariners coaches, and he should be ready to challenge for MLB playing time after a strong Class AAA season. However, DeLoach has fallen in the Mariners outfield depth rankings where he now finds himself behind Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe, both of whom made their MLB debuts last season and figure to have the inside track for spots on the ’24 roster.

With an emphasis on reducing strikeouts, the Mariners opted not to offer Teoscar Hernandez a qualifying offer as reports from MLB insiders surfaced that Hernandez’s willingness to accept a 1 year, $20.3M qualifying offer was greater than first expected. Seeking better contact skills, Max Kepler presents a much better option than Hernandez. The 30-year-old Kepler has consistently been a league average or better offensive player who possesses good plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Kepler is also solid defensively at all three outfield positions. 

To acquire Kepler, the Mariners part with starting pitcher Emerson Hancock who was the No. 31 rated prospect in baseball. Hancock was considered a future top of the rotation starter when drafted, but shoulder injuries early in his career stalled his development and most scouts now peg him as a mid-rotation starter. Much like DeLoach, Hancock has been surpassed by other prospects within the Mariners organization as both Miller and Bryan Woo leap frogged Hancock last year and have established themselves in the Mariners rotation. Hancock did get called up mid season, but shoulder discomfort two innings into his third start shut him down for the remainder of the year. Hancock is expected to be ready for Spring Training and, presuming good health, he should have a strong chance of winning a spot in the Twins rotation. 

Taylor Trammell’s skill set – both offensively and defensively – has tantalized Mariners coaches since coming over in trade from the Padres, and the former top prospect did nothing to dampen those expectations in ’23 by putting up another solid year with a .260/.390/.530 at Class AAA. Trammell, however, is out of minor league options and is faced with the task of breaking into a very crowded Mariners outfield. With the Twins faced with losing starting center fielder, Michael A Taylor, to free agency, Trammell could fill a need for the Twins in the upcoming season.

Somewhat similar to Trammell’s situation is Twins prospect Jair Camargo. The 23-year-old is a free-swinger (32.3% strikeout rate in ’23) who carries some pop in his bat (.503 slugging, 21 homeruns for the Twins’ AAA affiliate last year). The Twins would ideally love to keep Camargo in their system, but a 40-man roster crunch may mean the organization will have to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft.  After the Mariners designated Bryan O’Keefe for assignment and Luis Torrens elected free agency over being reassigned to the minors, the addition of Camargo would offer the Mariners some sorely needed catching depth.     

Perhaps the biggest source of angst last year came at the designate hitter position where fans watched Tommy La Stella, AJ Pollock, and Cooper Hummel contribute to a 52 wRC+ at DH for the first two months of the season. Things stabilized a bit after Mike Ford was called up and got off to a scorching first 30 games with a .944 OPS and 157 wRC+.  But over his final 53 games Ford cooled off, producing a .709 OPS, 104 wRC+, and a 34.4% strikeout rate.      

Not wanting to repeat this mistake two years in a row, the Mariners tap Justin Turner to become their primary designated hitter.  Turner proved Father Time has yet to catch up to him as the veteran tallied an .800 OPS, 23 home runs, and 31 doubles in his 15th season in the bigs.  While Turner is no longer an every day option defensively, his glove is still good enough to garner some games at either corner infield position if the need presented itself.

Tom Murphy has been one of the most productive backup catchers in baseball where he owns a .250/.324/.460 over the past four seasons. Murphy has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching where he has a career .262/.352/.489. However, Murphy has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons and will be another year older. Additionally, his propensity for strikeouts no longer fits in with a team now looking for more contact.

That said, solid offensive production at the catcher position is a highly sought after commodity and teams will come calling for Murphy’s services.  At age 32, Murphy may see this as his best chance at leveraging a lucrative contract, possibly even as a starter, and most likely will be drawn to the highest contract offered. With Cal Raleigh set to see the majority of games behind the dish, the Mariners probably won’t engage in a bidding war for Murphy’s services, and may view the younger, healthier, and arguably more well-rounded Cartini a better fit to serve as Raleigh’s backup.       

The Mariners complete their offseason by signing the intriguing and versatile Yariel Rodriguez. The 26-year-old possesses a fastball that sits mid-90’s along with a cache of solid secondary offerings: slider, curveball, splitter and changeup. Scouts are mixed as to where Rodriguez would best be suited as an MLB pitcher. Some see Rodriguez as an effective fourth or fifth starter.  Others see Rodriguez as a dominant set-up man out of a bullpen. Such flexibility works ideally for a Mariners team who, at this point, have yet to know if Marco Gonzales will be healthy enough to reclaim a spot in the starting rotation. If, as expected, Gonzales is healthy, Rodriguez would join Matt Brash and Andres Munoz as late inning leverage arm.  However, should Gonzales need more time, the Mariners could slot Rodriguez into the rotation and then have the option of moving him to the bullpen once Gonzales is ready to go.