Question: How do the Mariners pick up six more wins?

That was the inquiry posed by ownership in the afterglow of missing the playoffs by one game.  Not the standard boiler plate spin from years past such as “we made positive strides forward” and “our young players received valuable experience.”

No hinting towards payroll cuts.

No, this time, it was about wins, and how to get more.  Specifically, it was about finding two more bats for the middle of the order and raising payroll to accomplish that goal.

How GM Jack Zduriencik goes about addressing the need for offense is another big question, with the answer predicated upon where payroll will be set.

For the purposes of our projected 25-man roster for 2015, we’re raising payroll to $125M.   Why $125M, you ask?  Simple. The Mariners can afford it.  Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano are the team’s only two long-term contracts.  And the revenues from their own Regional Sports Network and MLB’s profit sharing is undoubtedly enough to allow for upwards to a $150M payroll. But even without the RSN and profit sharing, the increase in attendance alone last season – roughly 300,000 – amounts to around $30M in additional revenue from gate and concession receipts.  The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game sporting a $107M payroll for the second half.  If the Mariners are truly intent about raising payroll in order to pick up more wins, it’s logical that payroll should increase from the $107M they ended the season with.  Of course, ownership’s intent could be to increase from the $91M they broke camp with.  Which one they will use as their starting point, no one really knows.  But ownership expressed a desire to pick up six more wins, and in terms of win values – where teams are paying roughly $6M per win – that would mean a bump of $36M, or a $127M or $143M payroll. For the sake of erroring on the safe side, we are using the season starting payroll as our launch point, and come in $2M under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, C John Hicks, and RP Tom Wilhelmsen to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and $30M.

The Skinny:  The Mariners are in the market for a “big” bat. Someone who can provide pop from the right side, play a corner outfield position, and hit cleanup behind Robinson Cano. The Dodgers are looking to clear room in their uber-crowded outfield, and have needs in their rotation, bullpen and at catcher. Can you say match made in heaven?

Trade OF Michael Saunders and SS Chris Taylor to the Mets for SP Dillon Gee and OF Matt den Dekker

The Skinny:  Saunders has mysteriously fallen out of favor with Zduriencik, Brad Miller and  Taylor are redundant, and the Mariners need a mid-rotation arm and fourth outfielder.  The Met’s desire ground ball and strikeout type pitchers, both of which Gee is not, seek a young shortstop and corner outfielder with pop, and have an excess of young center fielders. The stars seem aligned for a Mariners-Mets deal.

Sign DH/1B Billy Butler to a 3/$24M contract

The Skinny: Every year Zduriencik looks into trading for Butler. And every year the Royals hang on to him. Not this year. The Royals declined Butler’s $12.5M option, casting him out into the free agency pool ripe for Zduriencik’s picking.

Sign SP/RP Chris Capuano to a 1/$2M contract

The Skinny: Last season the Mariners learned the hard way that you shouldn’t  rely on and expect untested rookies and reclamation projects to pitch a full season. Lesson learned.   Capuano serves as the perfect safety net: a reliable arm that can pitch out of the bullpen and transition seemlessly into the rotation if needed.

Sign 3B Kyle Seager to a 5/$60 extension with an option for a sixth year.

The Skinny: Seager has emerged as the game’s top all-around third basemen not named Beltre. And he’s just entering his prime.  Locking him up for the foreseeable future is a no-brainer.

The Lineup

Position Players
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Matt Kemp, RF
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Billy Butler, DH
7. Logan Morrison, 1B
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller, SS

Bench
1. Matt den Dekker, OF
2. Willie Bloomquist, INF/OF
3. Jesus Sucre, C
4. Carlos Rivera, INF

Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Hisashi Iwakuma
3. Dillon Gee
4. James Paxton
5. Roenis Elias

Bullpen
1. Charlie Furbush (L)
2. Chris Capuano (L)
3. Brandon Maurer
4. Danny Farquhar
5. Yoervis Medina
6. Dominic Leone
7. Fernando Rodney

Analysis

The Mariners need offense, and they need a big time run producer to hit behind Robinson Cano.  Kemp fills that need in every way: a cleanup hitter with right handed power, capable of slotting into a corner outfield position, and a proven track record against mlb pitching. Yes, trading away one of the top pitching prospects in baseball may seem steep. Let alone the team’s most effective reliever from last season as well as the Mariners’ top mlb-ready catching prospect. But the key to this deal is getting the Dodgers to kick in enough money to get Kemp’s annual average salary down to $15M. And the Dodgers aren’t going to do that for nothing. While Walker, Hicks and Wilhelmsen seem like a lot to give up, all three come from organizational positions of strength, thereby minimizing their ill-effect on depth. Yes, there is some risk with Kemp due to his injury history and remaining length of contract. But Kemp’s relatively young age (just turned 30 in September) and last season’s return to form (.287/.346/.506 and 25 home runs) should relieve any anxiety as to whether or not Kemp is worth acquiring. That said, the Dodgers have made no firm indication they are still in the market of trading one of their most productive hitters. But with Andrew Friedman now in control of things, you can bet the Dodgers will be looking to trade payroll for prospects. And if the Dodgers are intent on retaining Hanley Ramirez, freeing up $75M over the next five years may help in accomplishing that.

The next step is to find a replacement for Walker, ideally someone who can slot behind Hernandez and Iwakuma and give the team 200 innings.   With Citi Field being reconfigured into a more hitter friendly park, reports are that Gee and his fly ball pitching ways no longer fit in with the Mets’ rotation plans.  We profiled Gee last year as a target for the Mariners after he went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199 innings, and struck out 142 batters while walking only 47.   Gee struggled in 2014 after suffering a lat injury, but is again healthy and should benefit greatly from the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco.  The Mets continue to seek a young shortstop with offensive upside whom they can plug into their everyday lineup, as well as a right fielder with some power.  Saunders’ .800+ OPS potential should be enticing and could be a perfect fit in right field for the Mets.  And Taylor, while not projected to be a star, would certainly meet their wish for a young shortstop with plus potential.  The Mets may prefer Brad Miller, who some feel projects higher both offensively and defensively.  If that was the case, swapping out Taylor for Miller shouldn’t be a deal breaker.  With Ketel Marte perhaps just a year away, both Miller and Taylor are expendable.   As for den Dekker, the emergence of Juan Lagares has blocked his path to centerfield, relegating den Dekker, instead, to backup duties. A solid defender and line drive hitter, den Dekker lacks the power to fulfill the Mets’ everyday corner outfielder need.  And with Kirk Nieuwenhuis on the roster, the Mets already have a left handed hitting outfielder to backup left, center and right fields. With his ability to also play all three outfield positions, den Dekkar would provide the Mariners with an ideal left handed compliment in center and right fields, as well as someone who could step into the everyday lineup should someone go down with injury.

Last season, the Mariners produced just a .190/.266/.301 from their designated hitter position.  Unquestionably, Zduriencik will be looking for an upgrade here.  And possibly a big one.  Victor Martinez seems to be the perfect candidate.  But Martinez is reportedly looking for a deal starting in the three year, $15M per season range, and is attached to a compensation pick.  The Mariners would probably have to guarantee at least four years and upwards to $20M per year to land Martinez, not to mention surrending this years first round draft pick to the Tigers.   And that is a pretty risky commitment to give for someone who will be 36 at the start of the season.  Another option is Cuban sensation Yasmany Tomas. Only 24, Tomas has big power from the right side, and can also play a corner outfield position.  But Tomas is looking to break the seven year, $72.5M deal signed last season by fellow county man Rusney Castillo, and that price is probably too rich for the Mariners considering Tomas has never faced mlb pitching.

As for Butler, there’s no denying he had a down year in 2014. Butler produced just a .271/.323/.379, managed only nine home runs, and struggled against right handed pitching with a .255/.301/.352. But Butler’s BABIP against right handed pitching of .292 was well below his career mark of .322, suggesting he’s a candidate to return to something closer to his career norm. And despite his overall drop in offensive production, Butler still mashed lefties to the tune of .321/.387/.460. Butler is young (28), healthy, and provides power from the right side. He fills the void at DH, can take some innings at 1B, isn’t attached to a compensation pick, and should come at a much more reasonable price than either Martinez or Tomas.  For the Mariners, that checks all the boxes on the wish list.

If there was one area that hurt the Mariners playoff push more than anything season last year, it was a lack of pitching depth.  During the last part of the season, the Mariners’ starting rotation simply fell apart.  Hernandez fell into a three game slump, going 0-2, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and a .948 OPS against.  Iwakuma went winless during a four game stretch, allowing 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings.   And Roenis Elias simply ran out of gas and had to be shut down. Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer tried to salvage a sinking rotation, but both were erratic and ineffective. With playoff hopes teetering, set-up man Tom Wilhelmsen took the ball on the second to last game of the season hoping to give the Mariners a much needed quality start.  He lasted only two innings.  As a result, Zduriencik has stated acquiring greater pitching depth will be an importance this offseason.  The Mariners will almost certainly try to find some veteran reclamation arms that they can stash in Tacoma. But another option that should be explored is finding a reliable arm that can swing between the bullpen and rotation. Over the past two seasons, Capuano has 32 starts and 32 relief appearances to his credit. In 2014, Capuano pitched out of the pen for Red Sox, and then moved into the Yankees’ starting rotation after being dealt at the trade deadline.

In 2014, Seager slashed a .268/.334/.454, hit 25 home runs, and won his first Gold Glove award. Of all the hoopla over Zduriencik’s ability to evaluate and acquire young talent, Seager is the only position player drafted during the Zduriencik era to have established themselves as a productive everyday player.  With free agency looming in 2018 and offensive production becoming a rare premium, locking up Seager should be near the top of Zduriencik’s to-do list.  A five year, $60M contract with an option for a sixth year should be welcomed with open arms. The yearly payout: $5M; $8M; $12M; $17M; $18M; $21M option.

Conclusion

With the additions of Kemp and Butler to join Cano and Seager, the Mariners would dramatically upgrade their middle of the batting order.  Kemp would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter behind Cano, and Butler would be a solid hitter to slot behind Seager.  Dealing Walker to the Dodgers would be a hard and unpopular decision, but with Hernandez and Iwakuma again at the top of the rotation, and the emergence of Paxton and Elias to anchor the back end, Gee would fill the need for a #3 pitcher who can eat innings.   Capuano would provide flexibility and depth for the pitching staff, as would den Dekker for the outfield.   The bench would be deep and flexible, with Bloomquist able to play the infield or outfield, Rivera able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and den Dekkar able to fill in at any  outfield position.