Yesterday was a bad day for Jack Zduriencik.
During the final day of the Winter Meetings, the Mariners’ quest to land a big-ticket hitter to fill their void in right field came up empty.
The Mariners had three players in their cross-hairs: Justin Upton, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Kemp. Any one of the three would have represented an offensive upgrade. None of the three went home with the Mariners.
Rather, the Braves refused to lower their asking price of Taijuan Walker or James Paxton for just one year of Upton, Cabrera spurned the idea of a three year deal with the Mariners in lieu of the five years he is trying to secure, and Kemp was traded to the San Diego Padres for a trio of decent yet fairly insignificant prospects.
Yes, it was a very bad day.
Of course, there is still time to try and work out deals for either Upton or Cabrera. If the Braves are willing to take Walker or Paxton off the table, the Mariners surely would press hard to acquire Upton’s services. And if Cabrera would be amenable to a four year deal, the Mariners may be willing to add another year to their offer. But the likelihood of either of those deals happening becomes bleaker by the day.
The Braves understand that they are under no urgency to trade Upton and would be content to hold onto him if their asking price is not met. By doing so, the Braves would have the option of dealing Upton at the July 31 trade deadline, or just let him play out his final contract year and then attach a qualifying offer to him at season’s end. If the Braves did lower their asking price on Upton, one can be sure that the number of interested teams would increase dramatically.
After the free agent signings of Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Pablo Sandoval, Cabrera remains as the best free agent hitter left on the market. Cabrera probably will end up receiving a four year offer close to $60M from one of the handful of teams still searching for offensive upgrades. If that should happen, the Mariners would surely have to give Cabrera the five years he is looking for in order to lure him to the far reaches of the Pacific Northwest (where he initially indicated he did not want to play).
Which brings us to Kemp. The Mariners have long been linked to the all-star slugger ranging all the back to the beginning of 2014, and then during last year’s trade deadline. Prior to the Winter Meetings, the Mariners and Dodgers were reportedly close to a deal that had Kemp and $53.5M going to Seattle in exchange for Brad Miller, Michael Saunders and a prospect not named Walker or Paxton. But the Dodgers ultimately insisted on Walker or Paxton while also deciding that paying half of Kemp’s remaining salary was too much compensation. Unwilling to part with either Walker or Paxton, and reluctant to take on more than half of Kemp’s remaining salary, Zduriencik walked away from the deal.
The Mariners and Dodgers continued to try to work something out during the Winter Meetings, but the impasse over Walker or Paxton ultimately prevented such a happening. The Dodgers ended up trading Kemp, catcher Tim Federowicz and $32M to the Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal and minor league pitchers Joe Wieland and Zach Eflin.
Again, that was Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland (who?) and Zach Eflin (again, who?) for Kemp at a yearly cost of $15M.
In other words, Zduriencik and the Mariners completely missed the boat on Kemp.
Look, Grandal is a decent prospect, if you can call him that. This coming year will be Grandal’s age 27 season, and he has just 216 MLB games and 777 plate appearances to his credit. Translation: he is far from a proven entity. That said, Grandal has always been seen as someone possessing good offensive upside, but questionable defensive and receiving skills behind the plate. Think Jesus Montero, minus the ice cream sandwich, PED’s and slightly better defense. Like Montero, Grandal’s value is highest as a catcher, but most believe his future is at first base or designated hitter. The Padres were one of those believers, splitting his time at catcher and first base. With Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first, the Dodgers seemingly believe his future is at catcher.
As for Wieland and Eflin, the former is a 24 year old profiled with having “average stuff” and back of the rotation potential. Wieland missed all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but, after a solid minor league showing last year, was recalled to the big leagues where he made two starts and two relief appearances, posting a 7.15 ERA. Eflin, 20, has the higher ceiling of the two. But having spent 2014 at Class A+ where he tossed 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA, the 6-foot-4, right-hander is several years away from contributing at the major league level.
Clearly not an inspiring haul by the Dodgers considering they just parted with one of the top right handed hitters in all of baseball. And certainly a package the Mariners could have topped.
All of which begs the question: What is the love affair between Zduriencik and Walker?
Yes, Walker is a blue chip prospect. And, yes, he may one day blossom into a top of the rotation arm. But right now, reality defines Walker as an unproven player who at an early stage of his career is already experiencing the type of arm injury that should warrant some concern. Walker missed most of 2014 due to reoccurring shoulder soreness and inflammation. Moving forward, the Mariners are going to proceed cautiously with Walker, and it’s questionable whether Walker makes the starting rotation out of spring training. If he should, it’s almost a guarantee Walker won’t be allowed to pitch an entire year due to the standard innings and pitch limitations that are placed on a young pitcher coming back from injury.
Oddly, the rationale of the Mariners’ reluctance to part with any of its pitching is Zduriencik’s concerns surrounding the health of Walker, Paxton and fellow starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Roenis Elias, and his trepidations than one or more of the aforementioned may not be able to pitch a complete season next year. The possibility of such an occurrence has Zduriencik believing that trading away Walker (or Paxton) would be foolish.
I get that Walker has immense potential. I understand today’s “value” placed on team control. But I also recognize that the Mariners are fairly deep in pitching prospects; have a shortage of quality hitters both in the minors and at the MLB level; and that if the Mariners truly have concerns over Walker’s health and ability to pitch an entire season, trading him would actually be the opposite of foolish.
I also understand that the Mariners have created a five-year window for themselves to make as many runs at the World Series as possible before age begins to take an ill-effect on Robinson Cano, Cruz, Hernandez and Iwakuma .
Knowing all of this, the question Zduriencik and the Mariners should be asking themselves is who makes this team better over the next five years: Kemp or Walker?
Now let’s remember, this isn’t a Walker for one year of Upton type of situation. That would be foolish. Rather, this is Walker for five years of one of the elite hitters in the game who – with Cano, Cruz, and Kyle Seager – would have helped form arguably the most potent offensive lineup in the game.
Last year, all Kemp did was produce a .287/.346/.506 with a 140 wRC+. In a division that contains three of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball, Kemp dismissed adverse park factors, lighting up Dodger Stadium, Petco and AT&T with OPS’s of.850, .780 and 1.069, respectively.
If the goal is to take advantage of the remaining prime years of Cano, Cruz, Hernandez and Iwakuma, hanging onto Walker doesn’t make a ton of sense if he could be used to acquire a player like Kemp who would substantially help the Mariners make a serious run at a World Series during the next four to five years. Walker may become a top notch starter three to four years from now. But by that time, the Mariners will be flush with in-house pitching options.
By then, Paxton should be pitching from the top of the rotation with Elias settled in as a decent back end starter. Top prospect, Danny Hultzen, ought to be recovered from arm surgery and serving as a mid-rotation arm. And current prospects Jordan Pries and Edwin Diaz (the organization’s co-pitchers of the year in 2014) along with top organizational hurlers Forest Snow, Victor Sanchez, Luiz Gohara and Tyler Pike, will all be vying for a chance to break into the starting rotation. And let’s not forget the many free agent pitchers that will be available during the coming seasons, and the fact the Mariners will still have Hernandez pitching in his prime.
That’s a solid list of projected top, middle and back end starters. It’s a sound mix of talent already at the MLB level and in the minor leagues just a few years away. Had the Mariners chosen to trade Walker, his absence presumably would not have been felt all that much. At least not to the point where it would cripple the starting rotation, like so many argue it would.
Of course the biggest knock on Kemp is his defense, or lack thereof. And most cynics point to Kemp’s WAR and UZR totals to try and theorize that Kemp should not be in the outfield. But Kemp’s WAR and UZR are indicative of his play in center field which, indeed, has reached levels of despair. But that wouldn’t be the case in right field, where his deficiencies would be greatly reduced.
Last season, Kemp’s UZR/150 playing center field was -33.8. That type of defense would surely negate any type of offense that Kemp would provide. But after shifting to right field, Kemp improved to a -8.8 UZR/150. Still not great, but not nearly as bad as when patrolling the middle of the outfield.
Given more time to adjust to right field, Kemp’s defense probably would “improve” to below average range – somewhere between a 0 and -5 UZR. But if Kemp can produce a 130 to 140 wRC+ offensively, his defense becomes passable. In fact, it would ostensibly make Kemp a 3.0 WAR player. Maybe even a bit more. And seeing how teams are paying roughly $6.5M per WAR, $15M per year would have been a financial bargain considering the skyrocketing costs of offense.
A recent article by Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello offers similar projections of Kemp as a corner outfielder. Albeit far from a glowing recommendation, Petriello weighed Kemp’s defensive abilities, injury history and age, and concluded “given a full year of data and health in a corner, Kemp couldn’t be at least adequate as relates to the offense he provides, because he’s still got that arm and being slower isn’t the same as being slow.”
Yes, the Mariners passed on a rare opportunity to dramatically upgrade their offense. And they did so by idealizing the future of an unproven, injury prone prospect while, at the same time, taking a worst case approach towards one of the game’s elite right handed hitter. But luckily, there are still options available. But with one less viable hitter on the board, the price for acquiring a Cabrera or Upton has now gone up. And come next year, the cost for top free agents such as Upton, Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes will be even greater than it is today.
But hey, at least the Mariners still have Walker. Even if he might spend 2015 in Tacoma.
Mission:Mariner 