Tag Archives: Michael Saunders

Assessing the Mariners’ Offseason Additions

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This past week marked the first full squad workouts for the Mariners this Spring Training, and unless you live off the grid, or are still mired in a post-Super Bowl depression, you know by now that most baseball news outlets and experts have Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer playoff bound for 2015. In a rare moment of togetherness, the Mariners have traditionalists and statisticians both jumping on the Mariner bandwagon and picking them as the trendy team to make some noise this upcoming season.   For example, Fangraphs projects the Mariners being the best team in the American League in 2015. ESPN has them as the second best team.   Baseball Prospectus foresees the Mariners as the third best team. Those certainly are lofty predictions – the kind the Mariners haven’t seen since the days of Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella.

Much of the ballyhoo stems from an off season that – on paper –has propelled the Mariners from just-not-quite-good-enough to one of the best in the league. Heck, even Robinson Cano has caught the “on paper” bug. But are all the accolades deserved and well placed?

Below is a quick run through of the Mariners’ major off season acquisitions; the hope for each player as seen through the eyes of the Mariners; and the red flags that each player brings with them that the Mariners hope don’t rear their ugly head.

Nelson Cruz, DH. Signed to a 4/$57M contract.

The Hope: Cruz led the A.L. in homeruns last season with 40, and provided potent cleanup hitter production with a .859 OPS and a 140 OPS+.   That type of production compelled Jack Zduriencik to commit four years to the to-be 35 year old to bat behind Cano. Moving to the power suppressing chamber known as Safeco Field, Zduriencik and McClendon surely do not expect Cruz to replicate those numbers. But 25 homeruns and an .800 OPS would be a huge and welcomed upgrade at a position that yielded a paltry .190/.266/.301 from 16 players last season.

The Red Flag: The knock on Cruz has been that his career numbers are propelled by playing in hitter friendly ball parks. The criticism bears merit, especially when looking at his overall numbers in pitcher friendly A.L. West ballparks where Cruz owns a career .749 OPS at Safeco, a .571 OPS at Oakland Coliseum, and a .654 OPS at Angel Stadium.   Those stadiums will be home to roughly 60% of Cruz’s games in 2015, and if his numbers in those parks remain near his career averages, the Mariners will have spent a lot of money for production they could have received by merely moving Michael Saunders to DH.

Seth Smith, RF. Acquired from San Diego for Brandon Maurer  

The Hope: After the perplexing Saunders saga and trade, and then the inability to sign Melky Cabrera, Zduriencik acquired Smith to be the everyday right fielder against RHP. Smith is not the defender that Saunders is, but he ostensibly brings a few key upgrades to right field, namely the ability to stay healthy, a career .800 OPS, a career .839 OPS against RHP, and the proven ability to hit in a spacious ballpark (.841 OPS hitting in Petco Park last season).

The Red Flag: The past three seasons, Smith has displayed some fairly concerning first/second half splits. Consider the following:

2014 – First Half:  .895 OPS, Second half:  .685 OPS

2013 – First Half:  .742 OPS, Second Half:  .659 OPS

2012 – First Half:  .789 OPS, Second Half:  .702 OPS

This penchant for tailing-off in the second half should be worrisome and could end up being problematic for a team relying on Smith to produce in order to contend for a playoff spot.   Smith seemingly represents an upgrade over the .721 OPS they received out of right field a year ago, but it should be noted that Saunders’ second half numbers the past three years have trumped those of Smith. Which begs the question: would one rather have an above average defensive player who starts off slow, finishes strong, but ends the year with average overall numbers? Or a below average defensive player who gets off to a hot start, fades badly in the second half, but still finishes with above average overall numbers?  According to advanced metrics, it seems the answer would be the former, as Saunders’ rWAR the past three seasons matches that of Smith’s (5.8) but tops Smith’s fWAR during this same time (5.3 to 4.9).

Justin Ruggiano, OF. Acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Matt Brazis.

 The Hope: Ruggiano’s acquisition was premised on one main attribute: his ability to mash left handed pitching. Over his career, Ruggiano owns an .836 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners hope Ruggiano continues that trend helping to form a potent platoon with Smith in right field. Defensively, Ruggiano has been adequate across all three outfield positions and will backup Dustin Ackley in left and Austin Jackson in center.

The Red Flag. Zduriencik has gone on record stating that Ruggiano is not just a part-time platoon player, but someone who could play every day if needed. That’s a fairly big leap of faith for someone who has played more than 91 games in a season just once. And when he did (128 games in 2013) Ruggiano struggled greatly against RHP, slashing a .210/.283/.347 in 322 plate appearances.

Rickie Weeks, Utility. Signed to a 1/$2M contract.

 The Hope: Weeks brings another right handed bat to the Mariners, one that has produced a career .834 OPS against lefties including an .865 OPS last season. Although never having spent a moment in the outfield, Zduriencik and the Mariners envision Weeks platooning with Ackley in left field, as well as providing a right handed alternative at 3B, 2B and 1B if needed.

The Red Flag: Did we mention that Weeks has never played the outfield before during his career? In addition, Weeks will turn 33 in 2015 and has been nothing short of a below average to poor defensive second baseman the past three seasons due to his declining ability to get to balls put in play. Those are not good signs for someone who is expected to log most of his time in left field.

J.A. Happ, SP. Acquired from Toronto for Michael Saunders.    

The Hope: An obvious need for the Mariners during the offseason was acquiring starting pitching depth, and the Mariners believe Happ’s addition adds just that. Despite being used as a reliever at times last year, Happ managed 26 starts going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and averaged close to six innings per start.  Projected as this year’s fourth starter, the Mariners would be happy to receive that type of production from Happ again.

The Red Flag: Happ represents more of a replacement for the departed Chris Young than he does added depth. More concerning, however, is Happ’s injury history. Happ missed significant time in 2012 and 2013 due to injuries including a skull fracture suffered in 2013 after being struck in the head by a line drive. A sore back then landed Happ on the disabled list to the start of 2014. With the rotation likely featuring two inexperienced rookies (James Paxton and Taijuan Walker) coming off arm injuries, and their only other viable starter (Roenis Elias) also coming off arm injury, the Mariners will need Happ to stay healthy to provide “depth” and rotation stability.

Melky Cabrera Makes Little Sense for Mariners

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The Winter Meetings begin tomorrow in San Diego, CA and all Mariner eyes will be on GM Jack Zduriencik as he continues his push to land a right fielder. With Michael Saunders recently traded to Toronto for starting pitcher J.A. Happ, and newly acquired Nelson Cruz slated to spend the majority of time as the team’s designated hitter, Zduriencik will undoubtedly be working the floor incessantly in order to land a second “big” bat for his offense.

The Mariners have been tied to the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp and the Braves’ Justin Upton for most of the offseason. Both players would represent huge upgrades in right field, but both also come with lofty costs as Los Angeles and Atlanta are said to be asking for blue chip prospects in return, including top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker. Complicating matters even more, Upton would be a one-year rental as he is set to hit free agency as season’s end, and Kemp is owed $107M over the next five seasons.

With the Mariners seemingly not comfortable with the current asking prices for Kemp or Upton (recent reports indicate the Mariners turned down a trade of Walker for Kemp plus $53.5M) Zduriencik is now entertaining the idea of signing free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

On the surface, Cabrera makes some sense for the Mariners. His acquisition wouldn’t require the Mariners to part with Walker or James Paxton. And coming off a 2014 season where he slashed a .301/.351/.458 with 16 homeruns, 35 doubles and 3 triples, Cabrera would seemingly fill the Mariners’ need for a right fielder who can wield a productive bat.

However, with dealing Saunders away, the intent of the Mariners presumably is to acquire a player that will significantly improve the offensive production out of right field.

Yet, when examing the numbers closer, Cabrera doesn’t really represent much of an upgrade.

Last year, Cabrera produced a 126 OPS+, a 125 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .458 slugging percentage. Saunders produced a near identical 128 OPS+, 126 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and a .450 slugging percentage. Cabrera did put up a solid .808 OPS, but his OPS was buoyed by two huge months in March/April (.935 OPS) and July (.956 OPS) while the rest of the year consisted of fairly pedestrial monthly OPS’s of .735, .751, .714, and .402.   Saunders ended the season with a lower .791 OPS but was a tad more consistent with OPS’s of .834, .862, and .952 in May, July and September/October.  Saunders’ down months, however, fared worse than Cabrera’s, with OPS’s of .600 and .651 in March/ April and June.

In considering these numbers, we can not overlook the fact that Saunders played in only 78 games last season due to injury and perplexing decisions by manager Lloyd McClendon to keep him on the bench, stemming all the way back to spring training. With that in mind, if we are to look at the numbers from the past two seasons (i.e. Cabrera’s post PED years) Saunders comes out as the more valuable player, producing a 3.2 fWAR in 731 plate appearances to Cabrera’s 1.7 fWAR in 993 plate appearances.  And in looking at 2015, Saunders’ is projected by Steamer to produce a 1.8 fWAR compared to Cabrera’s projection of 1.7 fWAR.

Given those numbers, Cabrera’s asking price is steep; 5-years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $60M-$75M. But keeping in mind the recent contracts given to fellow right fielders Cruz (4 years, $57M) and Nick Markakis (4 years, $44M), such an asking price is not unreasonable.

While Cabrera would undoubtedly bring more expected reliability to the right field position, the numbers show that when on the field, Saunders was as good, or better, than Cabrera.  In addition, the Mariners reportedly would bat Cabrera second, which seems counter-productive considering the dire need for another run producer to hit in the middle of the batting order, as well as the fact the Mariners return Dustin Ackley who produced a .765 OPS serving as the Mariners #2 hitter from July 26th until the end of the season.

All of which begs the question: Is reliability worth paying Cabrera $12M-$15M per year over the next five years to be the Mariners #2 hitter when Saunders would have cost the Mariners merely $3M in arbitration?

If the Mariners are truly looking for a substantial upgrade in right field, Kemp or Upton should be the preferred targets.

Because when you consider that a player like Kemp – who posted an .800+ OPS in all but one month of the season last year, as well as a wRC+ of 140 – could be had for $10M per year over the next five years, even if it requires trading Walker, the idea of signing Cabrera for far more money in order to receive far less offensive production, over the exact same time span, is simply nonsensical.

It’s Time for the Mariners to End the Almonte Experiment

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Last Wednesday, the Mariners finally ended their eight game losing streak by defeating the Houston Astros 5-3 on a dramatic bottom of the ninth inning 3-run homerun by Kyle Seager. The win prevented the free falling Mariners from being swept at home by the worst team in baseball, and sent the reported 13,739 fans in attendance home with a bit of long forgotten joy.

But lost in all the excitement of the Mariners’ victory and Seager’s heroics, was the continuation of another streak that has become an impossible-to-ignore predicament.  At least to anyone not named Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, that is.

Last night saw an all too familiar performance this season – a box score line of 0 for 4, two strikeouts, and no walks by Abraham Almonte. The two strikeouts marked the 11th time in 21 games that Almonte has struck out multiple times in a game, and added to his league leading 33 strikeouts this season, which are nearly double of what he totaled last season after his first 21 games.  And if the strikeouts weren’t bad enough, Almonte is now slashing a .213/.255/.326 with an OPS+ of 68. His walk rate has dropped to 5.3%, while his strikeout rate of 35.1% ranks fourth worst in all of baseball.   In the series against Houston alone – against some fairly mediocre pitching – Almonte went 2 for 12 with six strikeouts and no walks.

To be fair, Almonte’s struggles shouldn’t be unexpected. Up until last year, Almonte was a fringe prospect whose career minor league numbers were average at best. After being acquired from the Yankee’s in exchange for reliever Shawn Kelley, Almonte caught fire in the Pacific Coast League, slashing a .314/.403/.491 in 94 games. That would result in a late season call-up with the Mariners where he produced a respectable .264/.313/.403 in 25 games.   Such a performance was enough to lead many to believe Almonte could possibly vie for a backup outfielder role with the Mariners in 2014. But in 23 Cactus League games, Almonte struggled to a .178/.256/.301 to go with some shaky defense.   It was the kind of performance that would normally result in a reassignment to minor league camp.  But, somewhere within the mist of Spring Training underachievement, Zduriencik and McClendon decided Almonte would be the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. A surprising decision, to say the least, considering the fact that returning center fielder, Michael Saunders, who overcame an early season injury in 2013 to post a .790 OPS in the second half, continued his hitting with a .296/.375/.407 in 22 Cactus League games.

And while Michael Saunders has been relegated to the bench this season in favor of Logan Morrison, Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and presumably the recently promoted Cole Gillespie, the struggling and ineffective Almonte continues to get the everyday call in centerfield and as the leadoff hitter.

Despite his offensive malaise, Almonte’s play in centerfield has been passable, which perhaps explains his prolonged tenure in the starting lineup. Despite committing three fielding errors and some precarious routes taken on fly balls, Almonte’s defensive metrics – albeit a limited sample size – come in at average to above average with a 3.9 UZR in 184.2 innings. This would certainly account for why his fWAR is at 0.3 and not below replacement level. But for a player who is contributing nothing offensively, Almonte should be putting up gold glove caliber defense in centerfield – or around a 15.0 UZR – in order to justify his continued use as a poor hitting everyday player.

For comparison, Juan Lagares put up an astounding 21.5 UZR for the Mets last season. But at the plate, he produced only a .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for center fielders.   As brilliant as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcomings had the Mets, and baseball pundits alike, questioning whether he was anything more than a serviceable fourth outfielder.

So if a 21.5 UZR isnt enough to quell questions over a .242/.281/.352, what are we to think about a 3.9 UZR and a  .213/.255/.326?

All this isn’t to say that Almonte cannot become an average to above average everyday player. He probably will never be a gold glove caliber center fielder, and right about now, a .242/.281/.352 from him seems like it would be considered nothing less than a triumph. The Mariners would be happy to get above average defense and average hitting out of Almonte, and one day that may be the case. But right now, Almonte is what he is, and that’s an average defender and poor hitter. And that just isn’t good enough to justify consistent playing time, especially when the better all-around player in Saunders is available on the bench.

It’s time for the Mariners to do the right thing and end the Almonte experiment in center field and at leadoff.