It’s been no secret that upon their acquisition of Robinson Cano, Nick Franklin became an expendable commodity for the Mariners.  Soon after the Cano signing, teams seeking infield help – the Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees to name a few – began surfacing as possible suitors for the highly regarded 23 year-old.   Despite the early rumblings, however, it hasn’t been until this past week that the Franklin rumor mill has started to heat up.   In the past seven days, the Mets, Rays, and now Yankees have emerged as possible landing spots for Franklin.  In fact, if not for the injury to Rays starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson, a Mariners-Rays deal was reportedly close to being finalized that would have sent the young second baseman to Tampa in exchange for one of the Rays’ starting pitchers.

With Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez both officially off the free agent market, and Ervin Santana seeking a Jimenez-like 4 year $50M contract, trade is now the likely route the Mariners will take to fill their believed needs: a mid-rotation starting pitcher and a centerfielder.  And if it’s true Jack Zduriencik is willing to part with Franklin, the Mariners could fill one – or both – of those needs by dealing Franklin to either the Mets or the Twins.

The Mets:

Lookout Landing recently did a nice piece on what the Mets have to offer as a potential trading partner, focusing much of their attention on whether young pitching prospects like Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero could be had in return for Franklin.  Both of those players would be solid returns for Franklin.  The question, however, is whether the Mariners should be targeting a young pitching prospect? It’s true that a team can never have enough young pitching talent.  And while Syndergaard or Montero meet that criteria and could be nice arms for the near future, neither help the Mariners’ current pitching needs for 2014.    The Mariners rotation will, presumably, contain two of baseball best young (and unproven) arms in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  An addition of Syndergaard or Montero would either replace one of Walker or Paxton, or simply add to the rotations expected youth and inexperience.  What the Mariners don’t have, and are in need of, is a solid veteran mid-rotation arm to slot in behind co-aces Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  As things stand now, the Mariners have to feel uncomfortable heading into the season with the prospect of having three untested and unproven young arms anchoring the back-end of the rotation.  And with Iwakuma still recovering from his finger injury and out for at least the next three weeks, the Mariners may be looking at having four young arms following Hernandez in the rotation to start the season.  Given that foreseeable abundance of youth and inexperience, a more established pitcher like Dillon Gee would be a better target for the Mariners than a Syndergaard or Montero.  Last season, Gee went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199.0 innings, posted a 1.281 WHIP, and is under team control for another three seasons.   Gee probably has reached his ceiling as a pitcher, but at just 27 years of age (Gee will turn 28 in April) he’s in the midst of his prime and should be expected keep producing those type of numbers for years to come.  That kind of production would be serviceable as a temporary #2 pitcher, and feature nicely as the Mariners’ #3 once Iwakuma returned to the rotation.

The other player Lookout Landing discussed was centerfielder Juan Lagares, whom we here at Mission Mariner believe could be a diamond in the making.  Lagares was signed by the Mets as a 17-year old amateur free agent in 2006, and began his professional career as a shortstop.   In 2009, the Mets moved him to the outfield where he logged time at all three outfield positions as he ascended through the minor league system.  Last year, after getting off to a sizzling .346/.378/.551 start at Triple-A, and after an injury to centerfielder Matt den Dekker,  Lagares was called up in late April, making his mlb debut at the age of 24.  In 121 games thereafter, Lagares would dazzle the league with his defensive range and throwing ability, posting a dWAR of 3.5, a 21.5 UZR (2^nd in mlb), and 15 outfield assists (3^rd in mlb).  Of course, it would be hard to imagine Lagares continuing to put up such astronomical defensive numbers.  But even with expected regression, Lagares would most likely still continue to provide above average defense at one of baseball’s most demanding and important positions.

While Lagares shined on defense, his offense, however, was a different story.  Lagares finished 2013 with a slash line of .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for centerfielders.  As good as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcoming is difficult to overlook for someone expected to account for 500+ plate appearances per season.  However, if there is a silver lining to take away from 2013 – perhaps a glint of potential to be found – Lagares’ offensive output was marred by early and late season swoons.  In May and September, Lagares slashed a .149/.184/.255 and .168/.216/.221 respectively.  During the three months in between, Lagares put up a respectable .288/.325/.420, highlighted by a .353/.408/.529 July.  Of course, it would be silly to make any sort of judgments or conclusions based on those numbers.  But it does beg the question whether Lagares was a below average hitter who just happened to get hot, or whether he was a potential league average hitter who got off to a slow start and then tired at the end of the season?  Truthfully, time will only tell.  But if the answer is foreseen to be closer to the latter than it is to the former, then Lagares would be a very valuable asset to have.

In assessing the trade availability of Gee and Lagares, the Mets have not let it be known whether either are available.  With the recent injury scare to opening day starter Jon Niese, and Lagares showing flashes of offensive potential, the Mets may have no intention of trading either player.   But with the likes of Syndergaard, Montero, Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zach Wheeler, Jenrry Meiji, and Jon Lannon all vying for rotation jobs in 2014, and with ace Matt Harvey expected back from injury next season, someone like Gee could be seen as a soon-to-be odd man out and therefore available.  As for Lagares, the Mets already have a handful of capable centerfielders in den Dekker, Chris Young, and Eric Young, Jr.  Prospect Cesar Puello, despite his connection to the Biogenesis scandal, is also an up-and-coming centerfielder who put up a .950 OPS last year at Double-A.   With center field seemingly covered, Lagares, like Dee, may be seen as an expendable commodity.  If both were to be true of Dee and Lagares, the Mariners could try and deal for both, possibly offering up a package of Franklin and one of Blake Beavan, Brandon Maurer, or Erasmo Ramirez, all of whom could be serviceable arms out of the Met’s bullpen and/or capable of filling in as back-end starters.

The Twins:

The other possibility for the Mariners is centerfielder Aaron Hicks of the Twins.  Hicks is a five-tool player taken 14^th overall in the 2008 draft, and the player the Mariners tried to get Minnesota to include with catcher Wilson Ramos back in 2010 when Cliff Lee was being dangled at the trade deadline.   Hicks started off his pro career by scorching Gulf Coast League pitching to the tune of .318/.409/491 in 45 games, and giving Twins’ management early validation that Hicks was indeed a future star.  But over the next three seasons, Hicks’ star would dim a bit, posting OPS’s of .735 and .829 during two years at the Class A, and then a .722 OPS at Advanced Class A.  Promoted to Double-A in 2012, Hicks lit up the Eastern League with a .285/.382/.459, 13 homeruns and 32 stolen bases.  Hicks would carry that hot hitting over to the Twins’ 2013 Spring Training, where he blistered the Grapefruit League with a .370/.407/.644, four homeruns, and gold glove caliber defense.  That encore led Twins management to believe that Hicks had arrived, and named him the starting centerfielder.  But come the start of the regular season, Hicks struggled right out of the gate, seemingly never being able to get comfortable at the mlb level.  In 81 games, Hicks struggled to a .192/.259/.338.  His strikeouts were steep (26.8%) and his walks scant (7.7%).  And most surprising, Hicks’ vaunted defense was shaky, making the difficult play look routine, and the routine play look difficult.  After five disappointing months, Hicks was demoted to Triple-A.

Naturally, 81 games at the mlb level does not a career make.  And it’s certainly not enough time to warrant giving up on a player, especially a player with great upside.  But Hicks’ future with the Twins seems to be unclear.  With Hicks’ demotion back to the minors, the Twins went out and traded for Alex Presley, who is now slated to be the Twins starting centerfielder.  Presley, though, is merely keeping center field warm until highly touted Byron Buxton arrives in a few years, at which point Presley will move to whichever corner outfield spot is not being occupied by Oswaldo Arcia.  That ostensibly leaves Hicks on the outs, or at least in an up hill fight with Presley or Acia to win back an outfield job.  And if top power hitting prospect Miguel Sano is moved from third base to the outfield, that could make it even tougher for Hicks to work his way back into the starting lineup.

In assessing a possible trade, the question is whether Hicks would be enough of a return in the eyes of the Mariners?  Both Hicks and Franklin were highly rated prospects, both are under team control for similar amount of years, and both would be obtained to play elite positions.  But because of Hicks’ underachieving 2013, questions now surround his future prognosis as a mlb regular.  Fangraphs’ Oliver projects a five-year WAR of 17.5 for Franklin, but only a  12.3 for Hicks.  For 2014 alone, Oliver projects a 3.1 WAR for Franklin and a 2.4 WAR for Hicks.  In addition, Zduriencik’s penchant for valuing quantity over quality may make a one-for-one trade not so appealing to the Mariners.

Despite what the numbers say, though, its difficult to ignore the huge upside that Hicks possesses.  Like the Mets’ Lagares, Hicks would provide – at a minimum – above average defense in center field, something sorely needed for the Mariners especially if Corey Hart and/or Logan Morrison end up in the outfield.  But unlike Lagares, Hicks would offer considerable offensive upside, including the ability to get on base (career 14.7% walk rate, .376 OBP in the minors).  If his minor league walk rate and OBP are anywhere close to being indicative of what it would be at the mlb level, Hicks would fill another huge need for the Mariners as a leadoff hitter capable of swiping a base or two.

Franklin for Hicks?  Another interesting possibility.  And one the Mariners would be fools not to explore.