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As the Mariners Continue to Sink, Zduriencik Continues to Wait

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It’s like a scene out of the movie, Titanic.

The ship is sinking; passengers are drowning; and those few who were able to escape into the safety of life boats – knowing they need to go back and help those struggling to keep their heads above the frigid waters – are hesitant to do so for fear of a worst-case scenario taking place. And with each passing minute that goes by while those in charge debate over how and when the best time to act is, the situation simply becomes direr for those fighting to stay alive.

Unlike the Titanic, the Mariners haven’t hit a massive iceberg, quickly sinking them in their quest for the playoffs. Rather, it’s been more like a small leak in their hull since setting sail. One that the captain decided to patch with duct tape believing their destination could be reached before the situation became too critical.

But now, a little more than half-way to their terminus, it’s become apparent the duct tape isn’t holding; the good ship Mariner is quickly taking on water; and without addressing the problem, the ship and its crew will submerge before reaching port.

For most of the season, the Mariners have been carried by its pitching, where they currently rank 1st in the American League in BA against (.230), OBP against (.291), and WHIP (1.15); and 2nd in ERA (3.45) and OPS against (.644).  The Mariner offense, however, has been a far different story, ranking last in OBP (.300) and OPS (.675), and second to last in BA (.246) and RS per game (3.94).

And while the pitching continues to perform, the offense – as unfathomable as it may sound – finds itself in further decline.

As noted in a previous post, the Mariners offense this season has thrived in hitting with runners in scoring position. Upon concluding their three game series against the Astros on July 2nd, the Mariners were producing a .686 OPS and 4.2 runs per game. However, in their last 16 games since then, the Mariners have produced a .619 OPS and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. During that 16 game span, the Mariners have gone 6-10.

With such lackluster hitting, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should feel fortunate to find themselves in the position they are in, and should feel confident about their playoff chances with the addition of an offensive piece or two.   The need for more offense is no secret, as the Mariners have been linked to nearly every available hitter out there. But with the trade deadline just over a week away, the Mariners continue to wait for the “right” deal to present itself while their competitors – the Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Royals, Tigers – have already made moves to strengthen their respective teams.

While it’s understandable that Zduriencik wants to be diligent with possibly dealing away a top prospect like Taijuan Walker, or taking on an aging veteran like Marlon Byrd, the waiting game can be a dangerous endeavor. Rather than identifying a need and quickly addressing it, the decision to wait for the perfect trade scenario can allow for circumstances to change and, thus, for opportunities to be lost.

The danger that can come from waiting too long should not be foreign to Zduriencik, as last year’s decision to try and wait out the market for Josh Hamilton ended up backfiring. While the Mariners appeared to be the only team willing to come close to Hamilton’s  asking price, Zduriencik’s drawn out negotiations with Hamilton allowed the Angels to have a change of heart and sign him in response to the Dodgers unexpected acquisition of Zack Greinke. Had the Mariners acted quickly and made their four-year plus two option years offer to Hamilton much earlier in the process, Zduriencik most likely would have gotten his man.

This past offseason, Zduriencik seemed to have learned from that mistake by jumping out into the forefront of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes. Rather than trying to wait out the market or prolong the negotiations by tinkering with low-ball offers – thereby allowing time for other teams to decide whether or not to join in the bidding – Zduriencik came out fast and furious by making an offer that just didn’t beat the Yankees 7-year, $160M offer, but obliterated it by an additional 3 years and $80M. For the first time in the Zduriencik era, the Mariners recognized a need, and then addressed that need quickly without allowing money to be an obstacle.

But that “see a need and immediately address it” approach has apparently gone by the wayside. With the Mariners’ grasp on the second wild card slowly slipping, and the need for offensive help resonating louder than a fog horn blaring through a midnight haze, Zduriencik continues to wait.

And so far, it’s been to the Mariners’ detriment.

With their starting pitching still hampered by injuries, and rookie Roenis Elias showing signs of wearing down, the Mariners had interest in acquiring Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel to shore up their rotation. However, before they could formulate an offer, the Athletics – also needing to bolster a rotation hit hard by the injury bug – quickly swooped in and traded for both players.

The Mariners then turned their sights on David Price and/or Ben Zobrist but wavered on the prospect of dealing Taijuan Walker and taking on Price’s contract. Those talks are now on hold as the once fading Rays suddenly find themselves winning, and now threatening the Mariners for the second wild card.

Early on, Byrd seemed like an obvious fit for the Mariners, as acquiring the 36-year old left fielder would probably not have required the Mariners to part with their top prospects. But interest in Byrd subsided as the Mariners pondered whether to agree to Byrd’s request to have his $8M option for 2016 guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In the meantime, the Royals and Reds have emerged as strong contenders for Byrd’s services, and the Yankees recent trade for OF/3B Chase Headley has eliminated one more hitter from the pool of available bats, thereby increasing Byrd’s value as a result.

Probably the worst consequence of the Mariners’ hesitation is they have allowed the competition for offensive help amongst playoff contending teams to grow considerably. Three weeks ago, there were only 4 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Two weeks ago, there were 5 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Today, 7 teams are now within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. By the July 31 deadline, 8 teams could be within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card, assuming of course the Mariners can hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays, both of whom are just 0.5 games back.

With their stellar pitching and defense, there is no question the Mariners could make a serious run in the playoffs. However, is there is enough offense, currently, to get them into October? Right now, all signs point to no. There are players available that would help right the ship. The question, though, is whether the Mariners will act in order to keep them afloat, or do nothing and risk plummeting in the wild card standings?   With only seven days to go before the trade deadline, the answer shall be known soon enough.

Forget Giancarlo Stanton, Mariners Should Deal for Marcell Ozuna

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With the All-Star Game now concluded, the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline looms large on the horizon. The Mariners find themselves holding one of the two wild card playoff spots, and are reportedly scouring the list of possible players that could be acquired to help them in their quest to make the post season for the first time since 2001. While trading for a starting pitcher is a need, the Mariners have been offensively-challenged for most of the season, and obtaining a (right handed) hitter to go with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager should be the priority.

The outfield is the obvious area of need, and the Mariners have been linked to a handful of players who would serve as immediate upgrades. Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Matt Kemp, Josh Willingham, Dayan Viciedo and Ben Zobrist are just a few of the names the Mariners have been rumored to be showing interest in. Each of these players would be welcomed second half additions, and would provide sorely needed pop from the right side.  What the Mariners are willing to give up in return is the unknown question. It’s been reported the Mariners either want a young player who can be a part of the future, or a veteran with an expiring contract. Either way, the Mariners have the blue chip prospects – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Nick Franklin and D.J. Peterson – to land virtually any available player on the trade market.

Of course, the biggest name out there is the Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton. The 24-year old outfielder has been the most sought-after player the past few seasons. And while the Marlins have thus far been reluctant to move him, most figure it’s just a matter of time before Stanton is traded.

Stanton, obviously, would be an incredible addition for the Mariners. A Cano-Stanton-Seager middle of the order would be one of the best hitting trios in baseball.   But Miami has made it clear that Stanton is staying put this season, and any ideas of a trade is simply wishful thinking. Even if Stanton were available, the bidding war that would surely ensue would almost certainly require the Mariners to part with most of their top prospects, and maybe a young major leaguer or two. And after spending years rebuilding their minor league system, it’s hard to imagine GM Jack Zduriencik depleting his farm for just a single player.

The Marlins, however, do have another outfielder on their roster who isn’t just a fantastic notion, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Stanton, and who is the player the Mariners should be targeting above all others. That player is centerfielder Marcell Ozuna.

For the Mariners, centerfield has been an Achilles heel this season. First, it was the failed experiment of rookie Abraham Almonte. After producing a disastrous .198/.248/.292 in his first 27 games, the Mariners demoted Almonte and called up fellow rookie James Jones to take over the centerfield duties. While Jones has been an improvement offensively, slashing a .287/.318/.352, his defensive metrics (so far) grade out to being below average to poor with a -5.8 UZR and a -10 DRS.

A quality defensive centerfielder with offensive upside should have been the first priority for Zduriencik during the offseason. At the time, we here at Mission Mariner believed there was a window of opportunity for the Mariners to try and deal for the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez. With the Brewers now leading their division, any chance of landing Gomez has vanished. But with Ozuna, the Mariners may have another opportunity to solidify centerfield and upgrade the offense with a player who could be as good as, or even better, than Gomez.

Entering 2013, the, then, 22-year old Ozuna was ranked 75th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list. He was called up near the end of April after Stanton was placed on the disabled list, and in his 70 games thereafter, Ozuna produced a respectable .265/.303/.389, a 90 wRC+, and provided above average defense in centerfield (2.7 UZR, -2 DRS) and right field (6.9 UZR, 4 DRS).

This season, Ozuna was named the starting centerfielder for the Marlins over Jake Marisnick (more on him later) and is currently slashing a .276/.323/.463, has hit 15 homeruns, and is tied for 7th among all MLB centerfielders with a 117 wRC+. Ozuna has shined on defense as well, ranking 3rd among all MLB centerfielders with a DRS of 9.

Naturally, one would have to ask why the money-conscious Marlins would want to part with a young, up-and-coming, cost-controlled player who won’t be eligible for free agency until 2020? One look would tell anyone that Miami’s outfield is set for the foreseeable future with Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton.

Enter, Marisnick.

Marisnick is a five-tool player rated as the top hitting and defensive outfield prospect in the Marlins’ minor league system. Coming into this season, the 23-year old was ranked 79th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, and is the player most within the Marlins organization consider to be the team’s centerfielder of the future. With Marisnick now ready to break into the Marlin’s starting lineup, Ozuna could be expendable especially if it means obtaining top MLB ready prospects in return. The Marlins have been said to be seeking a young, cost controlled pitcher as well as a second baseman of the same stature.  The Mariners have both at their disposal.  

To obtain Ozuna, the Mariners could put together an attractive package centered around top prospects Walker and Franklin, both of whom could contribute immediately for the Marlins. Given the fact the Athletics recently traded the #14 rated MLB prospect plus some secondary pieces to acquire Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, trading the #11 MLB prospect in Walker plus last year’s #79 rated MLB prospect in Franklin should be enough to acquire Ozuna’s services.

However, Ozuna’s age, upside, and success at the MLB level could compel the Marlins to try and leverage the Mariners to part with, say, Walker and Peterson. Is Walker and Peterson too steep a price to pay? Possibly. But with all-star Seager entrenched at 3B, Peterson will ostensibly have to move to 1B, thereby decreasing his overall value to the Mariners. If Seattle were to be reluctant to include Peterson, they could sweeten the deal by throwing in a second tier prospect such as 3B Patrick Kivlehan, or perhaps include another young MLB arm with upside like Erasmo Ramirez or Brandon Maurer to go along with Walker and Franklin.

Giving up such players may seem a bit steep.   But the Mariners would be trading from positions of organizational strength to fill an area of organizational weakness. As the old adage goes, one has to give up talent to acquire talent. And Ozuna, at a very young age, is showing to be the kind of talent that can not only help the Mariners win today, but help them win for many years to come.

And that is a price worth paying for.

Is This The End Of Justin Smoak?

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The Mariners will have a decision to make. That decision entails what to do with 1B Justin Smoak? Out since early June with a quad injury, Smoak’s rehab assignment finally came to end last Friday when he was reassigned to Class AAA Tacoma rather than be recalled to the 25-man roster.

Having your starting 1B return to the lineup wouldn’t normally be seen as a problem. But since Smoak was placed on the disabled list June 11, the Mariners went 15-10, are now 9 games over .500, and are currently holding down one of the two wild card playoff spots.   Complicating matters even more, Logan Morrison performed admirably since taking over at 1B by posting a .264/.313/.440, and Corey Hart returned from injury to resume his regular designated hitter duties.

As Crash Davis so wisely stated, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” And that bears true for a general manager and his ball club. The Mariners have that winning mojo going, and GM Jack Zduriencik decided that reinstating Smoak into the lineup wasn’t the best thing for a team now hitting their stride.  For Zduriencik, it had to be a tough call, especially considering the expectations this team has placed on Smoak over the past several years.

In 2010, the Cliff Lee-for-Justin Smoak deadline deal was regarded as the linchpin move of the Zduriencik rebuilding effort. With a few deft moves, Zduriencik dealt away a handful of second-tier prospects, acquired and elite starting pitcher, and then flipped said pitcher for what many foresaw as a Mark Teixeira-type hitter who would occupy the middle of the Mariners’ batting order for years to come.

But in the game of baseball, prospects rarely live up to expectations. And that has been the case for Smoak since his arrival in Seattle. Yes, there have been flashed of excellence. But for every hitting streak that came along, there followed an even longer hitting slump. And while the future may still see Smoak turning into a productive hitting first baseman, his tenure in Seattle has been dissapointing.  Over the past four seasons, Smoak has averaged just under a .700 OPS, well below the American League average OPS for first basemen of .784.  So far in 2014, Smoak is posting a .667 OPS, again below the current league average OPS of .748.

During spring training, Mariners management began to acknowledge Smoak was no longer seen as the power hitting bat that led to his initial acquisition. Rather, McClendon touted Smoak as a Mark Grace-type hitter capable 40+ doubles. As we stated back in March, counting on Smoak to suddenly perform like Mark Grace – one of the baseball’s best hitters of the 1990’s – was, well, pretty ridiculous. I mean, you don’t have to know much about cars to know that a Yugo isn’t going to perform like a Porsche.

But the fact that Smoak has been a disappointment with the bat is only half the concern. The Mariners are paying Smoak $2.64M this season for below replacement level production (-0.2 WAR).   In terms of money-to-performance valuation, Smoak should be making the league minimum.   Worse, Smoak’s contract calls for a $3.65M vesting option for 2015 if he reaches 525 at-bats this season. $3.65M is simply too much money to risk being guaranteed for a below average/below replacement level 1B.

In light of the above, the smart play for the Mariners was for Smoak to be reassigned to Tacoma. At this point, the Mariners have better options at 1B. McClendon should continue to keep Morrison’s bat in the lineup against right handed pitching. Morrison, of course, requires a right handed hitting platoon at 1B. McClendon has shown no problem using Willie Bloomquist in that role, but could also use one of Corey Hart or Jesus Montero. Smoak arguably could have been kept as a right handed platoon partner, except for the fact Smoak is a terrible hitter from the right side, as evidenced by his career .651 OPS. The Mariners could also use Hart at first base and utilize a L/R platoon of Morrison and Montero at designated hitter.

With the July trade deadline fast approaching, the Mariners could end up going the trade route, making a play for someone like Martin Prado. Prado is having a bit of a down year for him, slashing a .268/.313/.365. But over the last 5 seasons, Prado has averaged a .291/.340/.432 including a .282/.333/.417 last year, and a .301/.359/.438 in 2012. The versatile Prado would provide sorely needed right handed hitting, above average defense, and could play 1B or even take some innings at 3B, allowing all-star Kyle Seager to move across the diamond. Seager is posting an .819 OPS to go along with 13 homeruns, 21 doubles, and three triples. Those numbers would translate well at 1B, ranking Seager ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, James Loney, Joe Mauer, Eric Hosmer, and Nick Swisher.

With the Mariners currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, the slightest move can make the difference between playing games in October or watching them from one’s living room. The Mariners were faced with one of those moves, and Zduriencik chose correctly by showing respect for what his team has accomplished over the past month in Smoak’s absence.

Mariners Getting It Done In The Clutch

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Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh said it best when describing the feeling of playing winning baseball:

“I love winning! I fucking love winning!! You know what I’m saying? It’s, like, better than losing?!”

It was a monumental scene from the classic film Bull Durham, where the succulent highs of success finally began seeping into the souls of a once downtrodden minor league baseball team. A pinnacle moment where the young, highly prized pitching ace – blessed with a million dollar arm but plagued with a five cent head – began to understand the simplistic joys that come from winning ballgames.

And right now, the Mariners undoubtedly share in Nuke LaLoosh’s fervor. Because, for the past three weeks, the Mariners have been winning. And they surely have to be loving it. At least, loving it more than losing.

It was roughly four weeks ago that the Mariners found themselves mired in an eight game losing streak. A streak that dropped the Mariners from second place in the AL West with a 7-5 record and 1.5 games behind division leading Oakland, to fourth place, a 7-13 record, and 6 games behind division leading Oakland. A losing streak of the “here we go again” kind, and signaling the beginning of the collapse everyone had been bracing for, albeit far earlier than most expected.

But the Mariners turned the tables on their cynics and, uncharacteristically from season’s past, pulled themselves up by the stirrups and proceeded to win 13 of their next 18 games, including two of three from Texas, sweeping two from New York, and taking three of four from Oakland.   The Mariners’ rebound has them now boasting a 20-18 record, 2nd place in the AL West, and just 3.5 games behind division leading Oakland.

All of which is fairly remarkable considering their injury-riddled pitching staff has been without Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker for most of the season, and their offense has been one of the worst within the division, ranking fourth in BA (.235), OBP ( .298) and OPS (.675).

So, what gives?

In assessing the Mariners’ performance thus far, two explanations seem apparent.

First, the Mariners’ pitching – both the starters and relievers – has been strong.   Led by ace Felix Hernandez, and receiving better than expected performances from rookie Roenis Elias and veteran Chris Young, the Mariners’ starting rotation ranks 2nd in ERA (3.72), and 3rd in BA against (.246), OBP against (.304) and OPS against (.699) among it’s division rivals.   The relief corps is performing even better, ranking 2nd in ERA (3.40), BA against (.236) and OPS against (.688), and 3rd in OBP against (.334).

More significant than their pitching, however, is a Mariners’ offense that continues to produce in the clutch. That’s right, clutch. You know, the statistic that shall not be named? The word that creates more controversy than Miley Cyrus twerking, and more debate than whether The Sandlot is a cute, uninspired kids movie, or pure cinematic genius?

No matter where you stand in the whole clutch exists/does not exist conversation, what has been undeniable this season is that the Mariners’ offense – while fairly dormant thus far – has flourished with runners in scoring position. Among the AL West, the Mariners’ offense ranks 1st with a .781 OPS with RISP, which is pretty clutch, especially when compared to their lackluster .626 OPS with the bases empty, well below the league average OPS of .704.

Of course, maintaining a near .800 OPS with RISP is an unreasonable expectation for any team, and the Mariners will surely regress in that statistical category. But it is a notable improvement for a team that has averaged just a .664 OPS over the last five seasons in such situations. Then again, with the season only 38 games young, it very well could be just the by-product of small sample size. Only time will tell where the “OPS with RISP” truth lies this season. But wherever that may end up being, right now the “truth” for the Mariners is marked by their current success in getting base runners home. And that success is aiding in wins.

As Nuke LaLoosh so eloquently reminded, “This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.”

And in the case of the 2014 Mariners, sometimes you get surprising pitching and clutch hitting, both of which has kept the Mariners relevant in the AL West race.

It’s Time for the Mariners to End the Almonte Experiment

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Last Wednesday, the Mariners finally ended their eight game losing streak by defeating the Houston Astros 5-3 on a dramatic bottom of the ninth inning 3-run homerun by Kyle Seager. The win prevented the free falling Mariners from being swept at home by the worst team in baseball, and sent the reported 13,739 fans in attendance home with a bit of long forgotten joy.

But lost in all the excitement of the Mariners’ victory and Seager’s heroics, was the continuation of another streak that has become an impossible-to-ignore predicament.  At least to anyone not named Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, that is.

Last night saw an all too familiar performance this season – a box score line of 0 for 4, two strikeouts, and no walks by Abraham Almonte. The two strikeouts marked the 11th time in 21 games that Almonte has struck out multiple times in a game, and added to his league leading 33 strikeouts this season, which are nearly double of what he totaled last season after his first 21 games.  And if the strikeouts weren’t bad enough, Almonte is now slashing a .213/.255/.326 with an OPS+ of 68. His walk rate has dropped to 5.3%, while his strikeout rate of 35.1% ranks fourth worst in all of baseball.   In the series against Houston alone – against some fairly mediocre pitching – Almonte went 2 for 12 with six strikeouts and no walks.

To be fair, Almonte’s struggles shouldn’t be unexpected. Up until last year, Almonte was a fringe prospect whose career minor league numbers were average at best. After being acquired from the Yankee’s in exchange for reliever Shawn Kelley, Almonte caught fire in the Pacific Coast League, slashing a .314/.403/.491 in 94 games. That would result in a late season call-up with the Mariners where he produced a respectable .264/.313/.403 in 25 games.   Such a performance was enough to lead many to believe Almonte could possibly vie for a backup outfielder role with the Mariners in 2014. But in 23 Cactus League games, Almonte struggled to a .178/.256/.301 to go with some shaky defense.   It was the kind of performance that would normally result in a reassignment to minor league camp.  But, somewhere within the mist of Spring Training underachievement, Zduriencik and McClendon decided Almonte would be the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. A surprising decision, to say the least, considering the fact that returning center fielder, Michael Saunders, who overcame an early season injury in 2013 to post a .790 OPS in the second half, continued his hitting with a .296/.375/.407 in 22 Cactus League games.

And while Michael Saunders has been relegated to the bench this season in favor of Logan Morrison, Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and presumably the recently promoted Cole Gillespie, the struggling and ineffective Almonte continues to get the everyday call in centerfield and as the leadoff hitter.

Despite his offensive malaise, Almonte’s play in centerfield has been passable, which perhaps explains his prolonged tenure in the starting lineup. Despite committing three fielding errors and some precarious routes taken on fly balls, Almonte’s defensive metrics – albeit a limited sample size – come in at average to above average with a 3.9 UZR in 184.2 innings. This would certainly account for why his fWAR is at 0.3 and not below replacement level. But for a player who is contributing nothing offensively, Almonte should be putting up gold glove caliber defense in centerfield – or around a 15.0 UZR – in order to justify his continued use as a poor hitting everyday player.

For comparison, Juan Lagares put up an astounding 21.5 UZR for the Mets last season. But at the plate, he produced only a .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for center fielders.   As brilliant as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcomings had the Mets, and baseball pundits alike, questioning whether he was anything more than a serviceable fourth outfielder.

So if a 21.5 UZR isnt enough to quell questions over a .242/.281/.352, what are we to think about a 3.9 UZR and a  .213/.255/.326?

All this isn’t to say that Almonte cannot become an average to above average everyday player. He probably will never be a gold glove caliber center fielder, and right about now, a .242/.281/.352 from him seems like it would be considered nothing less than a triumph. The Mariners would be happy to get above average defense and average hitting out of Almonte, and one day that may be the case. But right now, Almonte is what he is, and that’s an average defender and poor hitter. And that just isn’t good enough to justify consistent playing time, especially when the better all-around player in Saunders is available on the bench.

It’s time for the Mariners to do the right thing and end the Almonte experiment in center field and at leadoff.

 

Three Weeks Down, Mariners’ Progress Report 04/19/14

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The Seattle Mariners are nearly three weeks into the 2014 season, and what began as a promising 6-3 start that found the Mariners sitting at the top of American League West standings roughly one week ago, has quickly dissolved into a 7-9 record, fourth place in the American League West, and four games back of the division leading Oakland Athletics. The season is only 16 games young, so it’s far too early to be conclusive about anything. As we all know, the MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. But 16 games are enough to get a feeling for what’s working, and what is not.   Below is a quick look at what’s been good, what’s been bad, and what’s been downright ugly for the Mariners thus far in 2014.

The Good:

Dustin Ackley. Ackley is off to his best start since his initial call to the big leagues in 2011. Through 16 games this season, Ackley is leading the team in batting average (.291) and on-base percentage (.328), is tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and is 3rd in hits (16), slugging percentage (.455) and on-base plus slugging (.782). In addition to his hitting, Ackley has played a steady left field, reassuring management’s decision to move him from second base to the outfield.

Mike Zunino. After just 52 games in Class AAA Tacoma last season where he posted a paltry .227/.297/.478, Zunino was (surprisingly) called up by the Mariners to take over the team’s starting catching duties. While his defense and handling of the staff was solid, Zunino showed that he wasn’t ready to hit major league pitching. Over the next 52 games and 193 plate appearances, Zunino slashed a .214/.290/.329. Such a season had many thinking (including Mission Mariner) that Zunino needed more time to hone his hitting at Tacoma, and acquiring a starting catcher for 2014 should be on the to-do list. However, Zunino is proving otherwise.   Although he has drawn only one walk in 51 plate appearances, Zunino has emerged as one of the team leaders in hitting through the early season, ranking 1st for the Mariners in slugging percentage (.540), tied for 1st in runs batted in (9), and 2nd in batting average (.280) and on-base plus slugging (.834).

Roenis Elias. With Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker saddled on the disabled list to begin the season, the rotation was a major concern for the Mariners. Let’s not be fooled, it still is, especially with James Paxton having now joined Iwakuma and Walker on the DL. But from the patchwork of arms assembled by GM Jack Zduriencik, Cuban rookie southpaw Elias has taken advantage of the window of opportunity granted to him by the rash of injuries and has helped keep a depleted rotation somewhat afloat. In his three starts thus far, Elias has pitched 16.2 innings with a 2.16 ERA, and a 1.020 WHIP. He’s held opposing hitters to a .196/.286/.304 and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits in any start. Elias most likely won’t be able to keep up this kind of pace, and will certainly regress closer to the mean. But he may have shown enough to keep him in the rotation once Iwakuma, Walker, and Paxton all return from injury.

Felix Hernandez. Felix is good. Really good. It’s pretty much a lifetime given, so it may be redundant and unnecessary to mention him here. But the thing is, Hernandez if off to the best early season start of his career. Through four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.741), strikeouts (39) and strikeouts per 9 innings (12.4). Hernandez is also holding opposing hitters to a .171/.209/.305 and has walked a mere three batters. As great as we all know Hernandez to be, such a start to 2014 is worth tipping our cap to.

The Bad:

The Top of the Batting Order. Finding a centerfield and a leadoff hitter were two areas of need for the Mariners entering the offseason. Somewhere along the way, Mariner management decided that rookie Abraham Almonte was the answer to fulfilling both of these wants. When that occurred exactly is difficult to pin-point. Spring training would be the logical guess, but Almonte’s play didn’t really support such a decision. Manager Lloyd McClendon praised Almonte’s speed and ability to put solid wood on the ball, but speed and making contact doesn’t account for much if the result is a failure to get on base. And all the spin in the world can’t cover the fact that Almonte failed to get on base, scuffling to a .178/.256/.301 in 23 Cactus League games. And with the start of the regular season, he hasn’t done much better, slashing a .246/.297/.377 while putting up a walk rate of 6.8% and a strikeout rate of 33.8%. Not exactly what you want in a leadoff hitter, let alone in the starting lineup. Following Almonte in the batting order is last season’s leadoff hitter, Brad Miller. Although Miller did an admirable job leading off in 2013 after being called up mid-season – slashing a .265/.318/.418 – this year has been a different story. Miller has struggled right out of the gate, putting up a .203/.247/.377 to go along with a 2.7% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

Stefen Romero: Romero probably should be in the “ugly” category, but I just can’t get myself to place him there seeing how Romero is only on the 25-man roster due to the fact that Zduriencik rolled the dice on Franklin Gutierrez staying healthy, and neglected to acquire any other viable right-handed hitting outfielders. But Zduriencik did, and Gutierrez couldn’t, and Romero – who should be marinating down at Tacoma for another season – found himself as the starting right fielder against left handed pitching. The result: a .158/.200/.211, with one extra base hit, no walks, and a 30.0% strikeout rate.  

Erasmo Ramirez: Ramirez began the season looking like he was a legitimate #2 pitcher rather than a temporary fill-in for the injured Iwakuma. In his first start, Ramirez bested the Angels by going seven innings and allowing only six hits, two earned runs, with six strikeouts and no walks. Since then, however, Ramirez lost all three of his ensuing starts. Reverting back to his old habit of not being able to locate his pitches consistently, Ramirez was abused by opposing hitters to the tune of a .383 batting average and a 1.124 OPS. Unable to go deep into games, Ramirez totaled just a mere 11 innings pitched, while allowing 18 hits, 8 walks and posting a 10.64 ERA.

The Ugly:

Logan Morrison.   Zduriencik’s acquisition of the recovering-from-knee-surgery 1B/DH Morrison was odd considering the fact that just hours before, the Mariners had just signed another recovering-from-knee-surgery(s) 1B/DH in Corey Hart. The plan seemingly was for Morrison to provide a left handed power bat off the bench to compliment the right handed power hitting Hart at DH, and the right handed power hitting outfielder that was sure to be acquired. That power hitting outfielder, as we know, was never acquired. And despite his defensive liabilities, Morrison somehow garnered the majority of innings in right field, posting a lowly .150/.227/.150, with no extra base hits, before landing back on the disabled list, this time with a right hamstring injury.

Kyle Seager. Over the last two years, Seager has been the one constant in the Mariners lineup, providing a solid bat in addition to passable defense at third base. Among the handful of young Mariner prospects rushed up to the major leagues since 2010, Seager has been the only one to make the necessary adjustments and provide consistent production at the major league level. However, so far in 2014, that has not been the case. Through the early going, Seager is slashing a .170/.302/.245, with no homeruns and just two runs batted in. However, Seager’s walk rate is up to a career high 14.3%, and his BABIP is at a career low .225, indicating that perhaps Seager’s slow start may be the result of bad luck rather than bad hitting.

Lloyd McClendon. As former Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox used to say, you have to play the cards you’re dealt. And that’s exactly what McClendon has been doing. Except, he has been playing the wrong cards. For whatever inexplicable reason, McClendon relegated Michael Saunders to the bench as the fourth outfielder, and gave Morrison the starting right fielder’s job. With Saunders arguably the better hitter, defender, and base runner, the decision to take at-bats away from Saunders in favor of the slow footed and defensively challenged Morrison is, for lack of a better word, incomprehensible. As if that wasn’t enough, McClendon’s continuous use of the struggling Almonte and Miller at the top of the batting order has been just as puzzling. As noted above, Almonte and Miller are producing respective on-base percentages of .297 and .247. And after three weeks of play, their continued inability to get on base leaves little reasonable argument as to why one, or both, shouldn’t be dropped lower in the batting order. Meanwhile, Ackley has been one of the Mariners’ top hitters, yet continues to find himself buried at the bottom of the order.  If that isn’t enough, we could address a handful of questionable non-pitching moves made by McClendon as well. But, as they say, enough is enough, and we think enough has already been said.

 

For Better or Worse, Mariners Ready to Open 2014 Season

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With just hours to go before the Mariner’s 2014 season opener, I thought I would quickly post the 25-man roster with corresponding payroll. As shown below, the Mariners will begin the year with a guaranteed payroll of $89.22M. If Logan Morrison, Corey Hart, Chris Young, and Fernando Rodney all reach their respective incentives, payroll will settle at $98.22M.

Injuries to outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, and starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker created a few notable surprises to the 25-man roster. Rookie outfielder Abraham Almonte, expected to battle for a bench spot, will be the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. Fellow rookie outfielder Stefan Romero, considered a long-shot to make the club, will begin the season as the fourth outfielder. Rookie pitcher Roenis Elias will make the jump from Class AA and serve as the Mariners’ fourth starter in the rotation. Soon-to-be 35 year old veteran pitcher Chris Young, having logged only 4 2/3 innings for the Mariners this Spring after being picked up from the Washington Nationals, will anchor the rotation as the fifth starter. And underachieving starting pitcher Hector Noesi was assigned to the bullpen.

We here at Mission Mariner have more than adequately addressed our concerns with this year’s roster, so I will refrain from doing so again. But one look at the opening day lineup card and it is safe to say that the team GM Jack Zduriencik has put together is rife with questions and concerns. If the stars and planets somehow align, 82 wins might be attainable. But as things stand now, it’s doubtful the Mariners will be much improved over last season’s 71 win team. I do think the Mariners are good enough to avoid 90 losses, so a 73-89 season sounds about right.

Anyway, without further ado, your 2014 Seattle Mariners:

Position

Player

Salary

 

Position

Player

Salary

C

Zunino

$.500

SP

Hernandez

$22.587

1B

Smoak

$2.6375

SP

Ramirez

$.500

2B

Cano

$24.00

SP

Paxton

$.500

SS

Miller

$.500

SP

Elias

$.500

3B

Seager

$.500

SP

Young

$1.25/$4.725*

LF

Ackley

$1.70

CF

Almonte

$.500

RH

Medina

$.500

RF

Saunders

$2.30

RH

Noesi

$.500

DH

Morrison

$1.75/$2.125*

RH

Farquhar

$.500

RH

Wilhelmsen

$.500

Bench

Hart

$6.0/$10.65*

LH

Furbush

$.500

Bench

Buck

$1.00

LH

Beimel

$.500

Bench

Romero

$.500

CL

Rodney

$7.00/$7.50*

Bench

Bloomquist

$2.80

SP

Iwakuma

$6.50**

SP

Walker

$.500**

SP

Hultzen

$1.70^

RH

Pryor

$.500**

Total:

$44.6875/$49.7125

Total:

$44.537/$48.512

Total Payroll:

$89.2245/$98.2245

* Guaranteed salary/Salary based on reaching all performance incentives.  **Player to start season on Disabled List.  ^Player to miss season with injury.

Jack Zduriencik And His Baffling Roster Construction

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Usually during this stretch of Spring Training, optimism runs fairly high within me. As I previously wrote about, it’s around this time where I’m habitually stricken with an unchecked case of sanguinity, causing the unabated belief that that the Mariners will most certainly be playoff bound. And simply believing is never enough. Rather, the fervor becomes so prodigious it’s necessary to enlighten everyone within earshot. But as is the normal course of development, the Mariners will tail-spin out of contention, and I will then spend long hours trying to rationalize why another season failed to extend beyond September.

It’s a vicious cycle I fall prey to each year. My own form of personal purgatory. My Sisyphus, if you will.

But this year is different. This year, even after landing one of the top five hitters in all of baseball, I won’t be overcome with such delusions. This year, I’ve been reminded that I’m better than that.

The other day I was browsing through the Mariner’s blog section at the Seattle Times and came across this interesting snippet from a March 10 article regarding first baseman, Justin Smoak:

“But it’s the hitting that will define Smoak, and he knows it. You can’t be a light hitting first baseman. McClendon isn’t asking him to be Prince Fielder type, but he’d settle for Mark Grace….”

The comment was written by Times’ beat writer Ryan Divish, and was in reference to manager Lloyd McClendon’s announcement that Smoak would be his starting first baseman for the 2014 season. It wasn’t clear whether this was something derived from Divish’s own thoughts, or if he was simply paraphrasing McClendon. But considering the dearth of personal opinion found in any of Divish’s reporting, one can pretty much surmise this was born from McClendon himself.

What makes the statement interesting isn’t the fact that McClendon’s expectations for Smoak are no longer of the prototypical power hitting first baseman that GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners have touted Smoak as being since his acquisition from Texas (well, that is interesting, but a discussion for another day). Rather, its McClendon’s temperament and apparent willingness to, instead, settle for Smoak being Mark Grace.

That’s right, settle for Mark Grace.

The same Mark Grace who finished second in the rookie of the year voting in 1988, was a three time all-star, a three time gold glover, a four time MVP candidate, and one of the top hitters in all of baseball during the 1990’s, averaging a slash line of .311/.392/.462 from 1992 to 2001. Call me crazy, but I’m not sure there are many teams today that would look at that type of production as something to settle for.

Now, McClendon’s reconciliation with Smoak has to do with his willingness to trade homeruns for doubles. In fact, a lot more doubles. Forty to forty-five doubles to be exact. But seeing how Smoak’s career high in doubles is 24, as well as the fact he hit only 19 last year, jumping to 40-45 doubles in 2014 would be nothing less than a major achievement. Perhaps even a miracle.

But in the eyes of the Mariners, Grace-like production from Smoak would be settling. And it’s with this one singular verb where clairvoyance materializes, cutting through my haze of romanticism like a Felix Hernandez fastball burning through the night time air. For it’s a stark reminder that much of the Mariners’ success in 2014 teeters on hope and overcoming odds rather than meeting expectations. It’s a memorandum on the fact that although Zduriencik and the Mariners like to tout the possible, the 25-man roster is governed by the plausible.

And since 2009, the “possible” taking precedent over the “plausible” has been the modus operandi of Zduriencik’s roster construction. Whether it has been an undying faith in the progression of the youth, or relying on the rebirth of veterans two or three years past their last productive season, the assemblage of the 25-man roster has consistently been built on the backs of players expected to perform well beyond any sort of reasonableness. And nothing represents the kind of Hail-Mary hopefulness that has long defined Zduriencik’s roster formation than McClendon’s belief that Smoak can be a Grace-like .300/.390/.460, 45 doubles and 20 homerun hitter.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Such an evolution by Smoak is possible, and would pair very nicely with Robinson Cano in the middle of the batting order. And yes, it would be a huge boost for this team.

But so would Corey Hart being able to stay healthy enough to play a decent right field regularly, rookie Abraham Almonte proving to be a solid everyday centerfielder and leadoff hitter, and veteran pitchers Scott Baker and Randy Wolf regaining their old form and solidifying the middle of the rotation, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker out with injuries for at least the first month of the season.    And, of course, questions still remain whether a bullpen that ranked as one of the worst in 2013 can improve despite losing two of their best arms in Oliver Perez and Stephen Pryor, whether Mike Zunino can show he doesn’t warrant further time in Tacoma, whether Brad Miller can prove he has what it takes defensively to stick at shortstop, and whether Dustin Ackley can continue hitting in 2014 like he did during the second half of 2013.

All of which is possible, but, realistically speaking, not plausible. And if the Mariners hope to make any noise in a tough AL West division, they will need most of these possibilities to become realities. But with Zduriencik choosing to once again lean on untested youth and affordable free agent veterans looking to find the fountain of youth and good health, the results have been less than reassuring so far this spring.

Predictably, Hart and his knees have not shown the ability to play the outfield (or anywhere for that matter) regularly. Almonte’s defense in center field has been so-so while his bat at the top of the order has been meager, producing a .174/.237/.304.  And Baker and Wolf have both been released, leaving the Mariners with a questionable opening day rotation consisting of Hernandez, Erasmo Ramirez, rookie James Paxton, rookie Roneis Elias, and one of Blake Beavan or Hector Noesi.

However, recognizing the fragility of their pitching staff, the Mariners promptly went out today and bolstered their rotation by signing soon-to-be 35 year old veteran pitcher Chris Young who was released by the Nationals. Young is coming off shoulder surgery on his throwing arm, hasn’t pitched at the major league level since 2012, and whose last full season as a starter was in 2007 where he made 30 starts for the Padres.

Wait, did I say bolster? Scratch that.

The Mariners entered the offseason needing to address the starting pitching, the outfield and the bullpen. Outside of signing closer Fernando Rodney to replace closer Danny Farquhar, the Mariners elected to ignore all three areas, believing instead that somehow, something will transpire and provide resolution. Perhaps Zduriencik and the Mariners see something the rest of the baseball world cannot?

It’s possible.

Two Trade Possibilites for Nick Franklin and the Mariners

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It’s been no secret that upon their acquisition of Robinson Cano, Nick Franklin became an expendable commodity for the Mariners.  Soon after the Cano signing, teams seeking infield help – the Mets, Blue Jays, and Yankees to name a few – began surfacing as possible suitors for the highly regarded 23 year-old.   Despite the early rumblings, however, it hasn’t been until this past week that the Franklin rumor mill has started to heat up.   In the past seven days, the Mets, Rays, and now Yankees have emerged as possible landing spots for Franklin.  In fact, if not for the injury to Rays starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson, a Mariners-Rays deal was reportedly close to being finalized that would have sent the young second baseman to Tampa in exchange for one of the Rays’ starting pitchers.

With Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez both officially off the free agent market, and Ervin Santana seeking a Jimenez-like 4 year $50M contract, trade is now the likely route the Mariners will take to fill their believed needs: a mid-rotation starting pitcher and a centerfielder.  And if it’s true Jack Zduriencik is willing to part with Franklin, the Mariners could fill one – or both – of those needs by dealing Franklin to either the Mets or the Twins.

The Mets:

Lookout Landing recently did a nice piece on what the Mets have to offer as a potential trading partner, focusing much of their attention on whether young pitching prospects like Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero could be had in return for Franklin.  Both of those players would be solid returns for Franklin.  The question, however, is whether the Mariners should be targeting a young pitching prospect? It’s true that a team can never have enough young pitching talent.  And while Syndergaard or Montero meet that criteria and could be nice arms for the near future, neither help the Mariners’ current pitching needs for 2014.    The Mariners rotation will, presumably, contain two of baseball best young (and unproven) arms in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  An addition of Syndergaard or Montero would either replace one of Walker or Paxton, or simply add to the rotations expected youth and inexperience.  What the Mariners don’t have, and are in need of, is a solid veteran mid-rotation arm to slot in behind co-aces Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  As things stand now, the Mariners have to feel uncomfortable heading into the season with the prospect of having three untested and unproven young arms anchoring the back-end of the rotation.  And with Iwakuma still recovering from his finger injury and out for at least the next three weeks, the Mariners may be looking at having four young arms following Hernandez in the rotation to start the season.  Given that foreseeable abundance of youth and inexperience, a more established pitcher like Dillon Gee would be a better target for the Mariners than a Syndergaard or Montero.  Last season, Gee went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199.0 innings, posted a 1.281 WHIP, and is under team control for another three seasons.   Gee probably has reached his ceiling as a pitcher, but at just 27 years of age (Gee will turn 28 in April) he’s in the midst of his prime and should be expected keep producing those type of numbers for years to come.  That kind of production would be serviceable as a temporary #2 pitcher, and feature nicely as the Mariners’ #3 once Iwakuma returned to the rotation.

The other player Lookout Landing discussed was centerfielder Juan Lagares, whom we here at Mission Mariner believe could be a diamond in the making.  Lagares was signed by the Mets as a 17-year old amateur free agent in 2006, and began his professional career as a shortstop.   In 2009, the Mets moved him to the outfield where he logged time at all three outfield positions as he ascended through the minor league system.  Last year, after getting off to a sizzling .346/.378/.551 start at Triple-A, and after an injury to centerfielder Matt den Dekker,  Lagares was called up in late April, making his mlb debut at the age of 24.  In 121 games thereafter, Lagares would dazzle the league with his defensive range and throwing ability, posting a dWAR of 3.5, a 21.5 UZR (2nd in mlb), and 15 outfield assists (3rd in mlb).  Of course, it would be hard to imagine Lagares continuing to put up such astronomical defensive numbers.  But even with expected regression, Lagares would most likely still continue to provide above average defense at one of baseball’s most demanding and important positions.

While Lagares shined on defense, his offense, however, was a different story.  Lagares finished 2013 with a slash line of .242/.281/.352, markedly below the league average of .261/.328/.402 for centerfielders.  As good as Lagares’ defense was, his offensive shortcoming is difficult to overlook for someone expected to account for 500+ plate appearances per season.  However, if there is a silver lining to take away from 2013 – perhaps a glint of potential to be found – Lagares’ offensive output was marred by early and late season swoons.  In May and September, Lagares slashed a .149/.184/.255 and .168/.216/.221 respectively.  During the three months in between, Lagares put up a respectable .288/.325/.420, highlighted by a .353/.408/.529 July.  Of course, it would be silly to make any sort of judgments or conclusions based on those numbers.  But it does beg the question whether Lagares was a below average hitter who just happened to get hot, or whether he was a potential league average hitter who got off to a slow start and then tired at the end of the season?  Truthfully, time will only tell.  But if the answer is foreseen to be closer to the latter than it is to the former, then Lagares would be a very valuable asset to have.

In assessing the trade availability of Gee and Lagares, the Mets have not let it be known whether either are available.  With the recent injury scare to opening day starter Jon Niese, and Lagares showing flashes of offensive potential, the Mets may have no intention of trading either player.   But with the likes of Syndergaard, Montero, Niese, Bartolo Colon, Zach Wheeler, Jenrry Meiji, and Jon Lannon all vying for rotation jobs in 2014, and with ace Matt Harvey expected back from injury next season, someone like Gee could be seen as a soon-to-be odd man out and therefore available.  As for Lagares, the Mets already have a handful of capable centerfielders in den Dekker, Chris Young, and Eric Young, Jr.  Prospect Cesar Puello, despite his connection to the Biogenesis scandal, is also an up-and-coming centerfielder who put up a .950 OPS last year at Double-A.   With center field seemingly covered, Lagares, like Dee, may be seen as an expendable commodity.  If both were to be true of Dee and Lagares, the Mariners could try and deal for both, possibly offering up a package of Franklin and one of Blake Beavan, Brandon Maurer, or Erasmo Ramirez, all of whom could be serviceable arms out of the Met’s bullpen and/or capable of filling in as back-end starters.

The Twins:

The other possibility for the Mariners is centerfielder Aaron Hicks of the Twins.  Hicks is a five-tool player taken 14th overall in the 2008 draft, and the player the Mariners tried to get Minnesota to include with catcher Wilson Ramos back in 2010 when Cliff Lee was being dangled at the trade deadline.   Hicks started off his pro career by scorching Gulf Coast League pitching to the tune of .318/.409/491 in 45 games, and giving Twins’ management early validation that Hicks was indeed a future star.  But over the next three seasons, Hicks’ star would dim a bit, posting OPS’s of .735 and .829 during two years at the Class A, and then a .722 OPS at Advanced Class A.  Promoted to Double-A in 2012, Hicks lit up the Eastern League with a .285/.382/.459, 13 homeruns and 32 stolen bases.  Hicks would carry that hot hitting over to the Twins’ 2013 Spring Training, where he blistered the Grapefruit League with a .370/.407/.644, four homeruns, and gold glove caliber defense.  That encore led Twins management to believe that Hicks had arrived, and named him the starting centerfielder.  But come the start of the regular season, Hicks struggled right out of the gate, seemingly never being able to get comfortable at the mlb level.  In 81 games, Hicks struggled to a .192/.259/.338.  His strikeouts were steep (26.8%) and his walks scant (7.7%).  And most surprising, Hicks’ vaunted defense was shaky, making the difficult play look routine, and the routine play look difficult.  After five disappointing months, Hicks was demoted to Triple-A.

Naturally, 81 games at the mlb level does not a career make.  And it’s certainly not enough time to warrant giving up on a player, especially a player with great upside.  But Hicks’ future with the Twins seems to be unclear.  With Hicks’ demotion back to the minors, the Twins went out and traded for Alex Presley, who is now slated to be the Twins starting centerfielder.  Presley, though, is merely keeping center field warm until highly touted Byron Buxton arrives in a few years, at which point Presley will move to whichever corner outfield spot is not being occupied by Oswaldo Arcia.  That ostensibly leaves Hicks on the outs, or at least in an up hill fight with Presley or Acia to win back an outfield job.  And if top power hitting prospect Miguel Sano is moved from third base to the outfield, that could make it even tougher for Hicks to work his way back into the starting lineup.

In assessing a possible trade, the question is whether Hicks would be enough of a return in the eyes of the Mariners?  Both Hicks and Franklin were highly rated prospects, both are under team control for similar amount of years, and both would be obtained to play elite positions.  But because of Hicks’ underachieving 2013, questions now surround his future prognosis as a mlb regular.  Fangraphs’ Oliver projects a five-year WAR of 17.5 for Franklin, but only a  12.3 for Hicks.  For 2014 alone, Oliver projects a 3.1 WAR for Franklin and a 2.4 WAR for Hicks.  In addition, Zduriencik’s penchant for valuing quantity over quality may make a one-for-one trade not so appealing to the Mariners.

Despite what the numbers say, though, its difficult to ignore the huge upside that Hicks possesses.  Like the Mets’ Lagares, Hicks would provide – at a minimum – above average defense in center field, something sorely needed for the Mariners especially if Corey Hart and/or Logan Morrison end up in the outfield.  But unlike Lagares, Hicks would offer considerable offensive upside, including the ability to get on base (career 14.7% walk rate, .376 OBP in the minors).  If his minor league walk rate and OBP are anywhere close to being indicative of what it would be at the mlb level, Hicks would fill another huge need for the Mariners as a leadoff hitter capable of swiping a base or two.

Franklin for Hicks?  Another interesting possibility.  And one the Mariners would be fools not to explore.

Injuries May Have Seattle Mariners Rethinking Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana

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With pitchers and catchers reporting to Peoria, the Nelson Cruz “will he or won’t he be a Mariner” saga still has yet to reach a conclusion.  Rumors continue to swirl around the blogosphere that it’s only a matter of time before Cruz will be donning Mariner blue.  Recent reports indicate that a deal between the Mariners and Cruz is close, with only a difference in contract years standing in the way of a completed deal.  The Mariners seemingly do not want to go more than two guaranteed years, with a third vesting year being a possibility.  Cruz – initially looking for a five year deal at the beginning of the offseason – purportedly is looking for three or more guaranteed years.

The discourse over a possible Cruz acquisition continues to be one of heavy debate.  And the debate is noteworthy.  On one hand, Cruz represents that right-handed power hitting outfield bat the Mariners covet (career .823 OPS, 32 hr/season average). Not only would he help balance out a predominantly left-handed hitting lineup but would slot in nicely behind Robinson Cano and Corey Hart providing the Mariners with a potentially lethal middle of the order batting lineup.  On the other hand, Cruz brings with him some fairly heavy concerns, namely his questionable hitting outside of hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark, (a career road OPS of .734, compared to a career .912 OPS at home), his 50 game suspension in connection to the Biogenesis scandal, and his defensive regression in the outfield (-14.1 UZR in 3055.3 innings the past three seasons).

Both sides of the Cruz examination bring merit to the sign/don’t sign Cruz dialogue.  There’s no arguing that Cruz would be a risky signing for all the reasons mentioned above.  But at the same time, concerns over his career OPS away from Rangers Ballpark may be overblown, as his road OPS+ indicates above average production in three of the past five seasons.  Still, it’s a gamble that GM Jack Zduriencik has to make, and one he appears willing to roll the dice on if the number of years falls to his favor, thereby minimizing the long-term risk while maximizing the possible short-term benefits.

However, by waiting so long to address their outfield needs, the Mariners now find themselves – barring a trade – with really one of two options; sign Cruz, or go with what’s in-house.  And outside of prospect Abraham Almonte, there isn’t a ton of viable outfield options that are mlb ready within the Mariners organization.

So now, at this juncture, it’s Cruz or nothing.  It’s shopping for a tree on Christmas Eve, with Cruz akin to the best of the remaining mangled up and dried out Douglas Firs that no one really wants. Despite seriously questioning whether the tree would last through the New Year, you need something.  And you know coming home empty handed would most likely end up being more problematic than coming home with something.

Complicating the decision, however, is the recent rash of injuries to players expected to play a prominent role for the Mariners during the upcoming season.

Yesterday, Mariners officials announced that starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will miss 4-6 weeks with a strained tendon in his middle finger of his pitching hand.  Having your No. 2 pitcher sidelined with injury is never welcomed news.  But for a pitching staff trying to find viable arms to compete for the last three pitching spots in the rotation, losing Iwakuma couldn’t have come at a worse time. This setback may now force Zduriencik to reassess how he wants to allocate the team’s remaining offseason funds, opting to abandon his pursuit of Cruz in favor of acquiring one of the remaining top free agent pitchers in Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Mariners also announced today that outfielder Franklin Gutierrez will miss the 2014 season due to a relapse of the gastrointestinal issues that sidelined him for most of last season.  Although Gutierrez was looked upon as only a reserve outfielder, he was one of the few right handed hitters the team had, and was a potential platoon partner for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders, Logan Morrison, and/or Dustin Ackley, all of whom figure to be in the mix for at least two of the starting outfield jobs.  Gutierrez’s absence ostensibly increases the need to add another right handed hitting outfielder.  Cruz would fill that need, and the Mariners may now feel the need to compromise their previous position and give Cruz the three plus guaranteed years he’s looking for.

The Mariners now find themselves in a pickle of a situation.  And it’s one that the Mariners could have avoided had they been more proactive in free agency when affordable free agents outfielders such as Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, David Murphy and Chris Young, as well as starting pitchers Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir were all readily available for the signing.

Where the Mariners go from here is anyone’s guess.  But one thing is for sure; the Mariners will have to do something.  Heading into the season with a starting outfield of Morrison, Ackley and Saunders, with rookie Almonte serving as the fourth outfielder, and a starting rotation of Felix Hernandez followed by four from a selection of Scott Baker, Randy Wolf, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, Taijuan Walker, Hector Noesi, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, and Zach Minor is simply – to put it kindly – underperformance waiting to happen.