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Seattle Mariners 2017 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Last season, Jerry Dipoto’s first foray into the offseason as GM of the Seattle Mariners involved reconstructing an entire bullpen, finding two starting pitchers, and filling holes at first base, catcher, left field, and center field. His offseason moves translated into an 86 win season, second place in the AL West, and just missing out on the playoffs.

Heading into 2017, Dipoto still has work to do but the challenges are not near as daunting. At the top of Dipoto’s wish list are finding a right handed bat to platoon at first base with rookie Dan Vogelbach, a left-handed reliever, and a corner outfielder.

As was the case last season, Dipoto has come out of the offseason gates quickly, having already made trades for catcher Carlos Ruiz, first baseman/designated hitter Danny Valencia, and shortstop Jean Segura. Below is our offseason plan, with corresponding updates.

So, without further ado…

  • Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B/OF Stefan Romero and minor league RHP Brandon Miller to the Miami Marlins for OF Marcel Ozuna and SS Adeiny Hechavarria. 

Dipoto enters the offseason with only one everyday outfielder on his 25-man roster: center fielder Leonys Martin. With Nelson Cruz set to see even more time at designated hitter, Seth Smith strictly a platoon player, and Franklin Gutierrez most likely having played his last game wearing blue and green, the Mariners find themselves short on experienced outfielders.  Youngsters Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel showed flashes of being solid everyday players, however, the two have a total of 164 at-bats between them at the mlb level.

To address this problem, Dipoto revisits the Ozuna trade talks from last offseason, this time agreeing to part with the talented, yet inconsistent and injury-prone Walker. Last season was another up and down year for Walker, one in which he showcased stretches of pure dominance as well as looking completely lost.  Still, Walker is young, cost-controlled, and has a high ceiling.  In a market where average starting pitching commands big dollars and multi-year contracts, Walker’s young age and high ceiling still renders him a desirable asset.  In Romero, the Marlins acquire a young hitter who can compete for the team’s need for a right-handed platoon bat at first base. Romero has produced against minor league pitching throughout his career, averaging a .299/.347/.514 at Tacoma, but is out of options with the Mariners.  Romero could fill the Mariners own platoon need at first base, however, having two inexperienced players at that position is not ideal. And should Romero struggle, the Mariners would be left with no alternative but to release him.

With the addition of Ozuna, Dipoto adds another young, athletic outfielder who can hit and play superb defense. Dipoto has expressed his preference to have Ketel Marte begin 2017 in Tacoma so he can further hone his shortstop skills.  Inserting Hechavarria as the everyday shortstop will allow such a wish.  Hechavarria struggled at the plate last year, slashing a .236/.283/.311, but some of that could be attributed to a slight dip in his babip, down from his career mark of .310 to .269.  In his previous two seasons, Hechavarria averaged a .278/.311/.676 so the ability to be a league average hitter exists.  And with Hechavarria’s defense, league average offensive production would be more than enough.  All Hechavarria did defensively last season was put up an 8.3 UZR and +9 DRS.  The year before, a 15.8 UZR and +9 DRS.  Even with his dismal showing at the place, Hechavarria was still worth 0.4 fWAR in 2016.  In comparison, Marte’s value came in at -0.7 fWAR.

Update: Dipoto pulled the trigger on the biggest deal of the offseason so far, trading Walker and Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for all-star shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-handed pitcher Zac Curtis.  While we felt finding an upgrade in the outfield should be priority number one – with Walker the asset to accomplish such a need – it’s hard to argue with the addition of Segura.   

Swapping out Marte for Segura (319/.368/.499, 20 homeruns, 33 steals shortstop, 5.0 fWAR in 2016) provides an instant upgrade and a legitimate leadoff hitter to the lineup. Haniger brings defense at all three outfield positions and a right handed bat that can spell Gamel and/or Smith against left handed pitching, and Curtis provides much needed left handed pitching depth, with the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Mariners’ bullpen.   

  • Trade minor league prospects SP Zach Lee and OF Gareth Morgan to the New York Yankees for OF Brett Gardner, and 
  • Trade OF Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for RP Trevor Rosenthal. 

With Ozuna set as the new right fielder, the Mariners turn their focus towards left field. Gamel is slated to start in one of the corner outfield positions, but the to-be 25 year old rookie has only 33 major league games under his belt and a .188/.278/.292 to show for it.  Given those facts, it would be difficult to believe Dipoto wouldn’t go with someone better if available.

That “someone better” would be Gardner, as it is reported the Yankees are listening to offers for the veteran outfielder. In Gardner, Dipoto is able to fill two glaring needs: finding an established left fielder and someone to hit at the top of the batting order.  Last year, Gardner split time with Jacoby Ellsbury at the leadoff spot, slashing a 261/.351/.362 with 16 stolen bases.  Gardner still possesses one of the better hitter’s eyes in baseball, posting a 0.66 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  And the former center fielder showed he can still flash the leather, producing a 5.7 UZR/150 while winning his first gold glove.

In exchange, the Mariners part with minor league pitcher Zach Lee and outfielder Gareth Morgan. Lee, 25, a former first round draft pick and top 100 prospect, came to the Mariners in last year’s trade that sent Chris Taylor to the Dodgers and should be able to compete for a spot in the Yankees rotation.   Lee struggled some in 2016 going a combined 7-14 with a 6.14 ERA with Triple-A Oklahoma City and Tacoma.  His 2015 season with Oklahoma City was much more akin to his top prospect billing as he went 11-6 with a 2.70 ERA, 81 strikeouts and only 19 walks.  The 6’4, 220 pound Morgan, 20, was a second round pick in 2014 and possesses a quick bat and impressive power.  Morgan’s swing and miss tendencies have hurt his overall ability as a hitter. However, scouts believe should Morgan improve his contact ability, he profiles as a legitimate middle of the order bat.

With Gardner and Ozuna set in the corner outfield positions, the Mariners look to deal from their excess of outfielders, sending Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for reliever Trevor Rosenthal.   Smith, used primarily against right handed pitching, produced a .758 OPS with 16 homeruns in 2016.  Rosenthal served as the Cardinals closer in 2014 and 2015, averaging 46 saves and a 2.65 ERA.  But last season Rosenthal struggled with his command in save situations, issuing 14 walks in 16 innings and four blown saves to start the season.  Rosenthal eventually lost his closer role to Seung Hwan Oh who went on to save 19 games with a 1.92 ERA.  With Oh set to be Cardinal closer in 2017, and Smith and Rosenthal due to make roughly the same amount in salary ($7M), the two teams swap contracts allowing the Mariners to add another high octane arm to their bullpen, and the Cardinals filling their need for a productive outfielder.   

  • Trade UT Mike Freeman to the San Diego Padres for LHR Brad Hand. 

Last season’s deadline deal sending Mike Montgomery to the Chicago Cubs for Vogelbach left Vidal Nuno as the lone left hander in the Mariners’ bullpen. In his quest to find a replacement, Dipoto turns to San Diego left-hander Brad Hand.  Claimed off waivers from the Miami Marlins at the beginning of last season, Hand proceeded to go 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA for the Padres and limited lefty swingers to just a .125/.221/.200.   In exchange for Hand, the Mariners send the Padres utility infielder Mike Freeman who saw time at second base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions between stops in Arizona and Seattle last year.  With former Mariner Luis Sardinas in line to be the Padres opening day starter at shortstop, the addition of Freeman adds extra depth and insurance in case Sardinas struggles.

  • Sign 1B/OF Steve Pearce to a 2 year/$11M contract.

The Mariners’ search for a right-handed bat to pair with Vogelbach at first base brings them to a player we advocated for last year. As we profiled in our 2016 offseason plan, Pearce lacks the traditional homerun power normally desired from the position, but brings with him a productive bat that put up a .288/.374/.492 last season as well as a track record of success against left-handed pitching. For his career, Pearce owns an .852 OPS against southpaws, including a 1.028 OPS last season. In addition, Pearce’s ability to play both corner outfield positions as well as second and third base provides valuable versatility.  At the end of the season, Pearce underwent surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm and may not be ready by the beginning of the season. So health is a consideration for any team interested in his services. However, all indications are that Pearce will be fully recovered by the first month of the season.

Update: Dipoto filled his need for a right-handed bat at first base by trading minor league pitcher Paul Blackburn to the Oakland Athletics for Danny Valencia. Like Pearce, Valencia lacks the traditional power of a first baseman but is productive against left-handed pitching and can play first, second and third base, as well as both corner outfield positions. For his career, Valencia has produced an .873 OPS against left-handed pitching, including a .924 OPS in 2016. Valencia is third year arbitration eligible and projected to make $5.3M this season, so his acquisition most likely saves Dipoto from having to lock into a multi-year deal for a near-equivalent type of player in Pearce. 

  • Sign SP Jon Niese to a 1 year/$5M contract with incentives. 

With Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda all returning to the rotation, Dipoto reaches out to former Mets’ opening day starter, Jon Niese, in order to add depth to a rotation thinned by the trade of Walker to Miami. Niese, 30, struggled in 2016 going 8-7 with a 5.50 ERA with the Pirates and Mets before landing on the disabled list with a torn meniscus in his left knee.  Much of Niese’s struggles were attributed to a sudden spike in home runs allowed where he served up a career high 25 long balls.  Niese’s track record, though, shows much better as he averaged a 3.65 ERA and 174 innings pitched from 2012 to 2015.  Niese is projected to be healthy for the start of 2017, and should his 2016 simply be an outlier, the Mariners will have acquired a solid mid rotation arm that can eat up innings for well below market cost. It would also allow the hard throwing Miranda to be moved to the bullpen as the second left-handed reliever.

  • Sign C Dioner Navarro to a 1 year/$4M contract. 

Having spent most of 2016 at Tacoma fine tuning his hitting mechanics, Mike Zunino will enter spring training as the starting catcher. After being recalled in July, Zunino showed improved plate discipline (.318 OBP) and power (.470 SLG) to go along with his usual strong defense.  However, Zunino ended the season batting just .207 with an astonishing 33.9% strikeout rate.  Those latter two stats remain as red flags heading into the new season, and should compel the Mariners to seek a backup catcher capable of stepping into the everyday role should Zunino struggle.  Navarro played in 101 games last season, but hasn’t done much with the bat since he put up an .856 OPS in 2013.  However, he’s still a solid defender who brings with him a track record of durability and veteran leadership in the clubhouse.

Update: The Mariners acquired veteran backup catcher Carlos Ruiz from the Dodgers in exchange for Vidal Nuno.  Ruiz played in 62 games last season producing a .264/.365/.34, and, like Navarro, is a solid defender and bring with him strong leadership qualities.   

The Lineup

Position Players 

  1. Brett Gardner, LF
  2. Steve Pearce, 1B
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Marcel Ozuna, RF
  7. Mike Zunino, C
  8. Leonys Martin, CF
  9. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Bench

  1. Dioner Navarro, C
  2. Dan Vogelbach, INF
  3. Shawn O’Malley, UT
  4. Ben Gamel/Guillermo Heredia, OF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton (L)
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Jon Niese (L)
  5. Nate Karns/ Ariel Miranda (L)

Bullpen

  1. Brad Hand (L)
  2. Vidal Nuno (L)
  3. Dan Altavilla
  4. Evan Scribner
  5. Steve Cishek
  6. Trevor Rosenthal
  7. Edwin Diaz (CL)

Seattle Mariners 2016 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Nearly a year after being pegged by most MLB experts as strong World Series contenders, the Mariners find themselves regrouping after a disappointing 76-86 season that resulted in the dismissal of General Manager, Jack Zduriencik.  To right the ship, President & Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mather turned the reigns over to ex-Los Angeles Angels GM, Jerry Dipoto, hoping his expertise in analytics and scouting will accomplish what Zduriencik was unable to do after seven (mostly) forgettable seasons: propel the Mariners into the post season.

Dipoto’s first step toward the playoffs was to revamp his coaching staff. Dipoto tapped Scott Servais to replace Lloyd McClendon as manager.  Dipoto then added Tim Bogar to serve as bench coach, Mel Stottlemyer Jr. as pitching coach, Manny Acta as third base coach, retained Edgar Martinez as hitting coach, and retained Chris Woodward as first base coach (Woodward has since turned down the offer in order to find a coaching position closer to his Florida home.)

Entering the offseason, Dipoto has made clear his priorities: more depth in his starting pitching, a stronger bullpen, more athletic defenders better suited to the dimensions of Safeco Field, and a better ability by hitters to get on base.  In other words, a roster completely opposite than what was previously put together under Zduriencik.

Of course, that won’t be an easy task as the Mariners are short on starting pitching, and possess an over-abundance of athletically-challenged, non-versatile, and strike-out prone position players better suited to the tidy confines of a Fenway Park rather than spacious Safeco Field.  To make matters worse, the minors fail to offer much in the way of MLB-ready pitching and position players who fit the Dipoto mold.  And with a to-do list that includes finding help at catcher, first base, all three outfield positions, a couple starting pitchers, and bullpen reinforcements, it’s no exaggeration to say Dipoto has his work cut out for him.

Which is most likely why Dipoto got an early jump to the offseason already by dealing shortstop Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for starting pitcher Nathan Karns, reliever C.J. Riefenhauser & minor league centerfielder, Boog Powell.  True to his vision, Dipoto’s first move as the Mariners GM saw him trade away a slow footed first baseman, a shortstop with glaring defensive shortcomings, and an inconsistent right handed reliever.  In return, the Mariners received a mid-rotation arm who immediately plugs into the starting rotation, left handed depth for the bullpen, and an athletic MLB-ready outfielder who can flash the leather and get on base.

Moving forward, Dipoto has much more work to do.  But as we previously wrote about, the right type of players are available in order to lift the Mariners into the playoffs.   Dipoto prefers acquiring players via trade rather than the free agent market.  But Dipoto simply does not have enough tradeable pieces to fix the Mariners through trade only.  To upgrade, Dipoto will have to dip into the free agent market.  Luckily, with a projected payroll of $130M (or more) for the 2016 season, Dipoto should have the necessary flexibility to acquire the resources he needs.

Without further ado…

  • Resign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a three year, $33M contract.
  • Resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year, $1M contract
  • Trade SP Roenis Elias, RP Tom Wilhelmsen, and 3B/OF Patrick Kivlehan to the New York Yankees for CF Brett Gardner.
  • Trade 1B Mark Trumbo to the Baltimore Orioles for RP Brian Matusz.
  • Sign RP Tyler Clippard to a three year, $18M contract
  • Sign OF Nori Aoki to a two year, $15M contract
  • Sign 1B Steve Pearce to a two year, $12M contract.
  • Sign C Chris Iannetta to a one year, $5M contract with an option year.
  • Sign RP Mark Lowe to a one year, $800K contract.

The Lineup

Position Players

  1. Brett Gardner, CF
  2. Nori Aoki, LF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Seth Smith, RF
  7. Steve Pearce, 1B
  8. Ketel Marte, SS
  9. Chris Iannetta, C

Bench

  1. Franklin Gutierrez, OF
  2. Chris Taylor, INF
  3. Jesus Sucre, C
  4. Jesus Montero, INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Taijuan Walker
  5. Nate Karns

Bullpen

  1. Tony Zych
  2. Mayckol Guaipe
  3. Mark Lowe
  4. Brian Matusz (L)
  5. Charlie Furbush (L)
  6. Carson Smith
  7. Tyler Clippard

Analysis

Here, Dipoto makes a series of moves to address his desire of making the Mariners a much deeper team both in starting pitching and athletic defenders who can get on base.  Last season the Mariners finished 11th in the American League in on-base percentage (OBP) and tallied the second highest strikeout totals.  The Mariners also produced the third worst ultimate zone rating (UZR ) in the American League with a -29.6. Worse, the Mariners finished dead last in defensive runs saved (DRS) with -60, while the next closest team was the White Sox with -39.

Dipoto has stated his first order of business is to resign Iwakuma for the rotation.  For the past three seasons, Iwakuma has teamed with Felix Hernandez to form one of the best pitching duos in the American League.  Iwakuma missed roughly two months last year due to a strained lat muscle, but dominated hitters after he returned by posting a 9-4 record in 17 starts, a 3.10 era, a .230 BA against, with 100 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 113.1 innings pitched.  Yes, Iwakuma will turn 35 in 2016, but even if he starts to decline from his former ace-like self, he will still serve as a valuable middle of the rotation arm.

After resigning Iwakuma, Dipoto must turn his attention to two major areas of need: center field and catcher.

By acquiring Gardner, Dipoto not only finds a capable center fielder, but someone who can leadoff and allow rookie Ketel Marte to move down in the batting order.  Last season, Gardner produced a .259/.343/.399 including a .291/.373/.462 up through the end of July.  However, Gardner slumped badly the final two months of the season, producing a combined .203/.288/.290 in August and September that tempered what had been one of the best offensive outputs of his career.  Defensively, Gardner spent most of 2015 in left field where he posted a -0.9 UZR and +1 DRS.  No longer the player he was back in 2008 and 2009, Gardner still has plenty of value (2.6 WAR last year) and a move back to his natural center field position may result in numbers closer to those of his last stint as an everyday center fielder (2013) where he posted a -0.5 UZR and a +6 DRS.  The Yankees may not be keen on trading away that type of production, but with Gardner mirroring the same skill-set as Jacoby Ellsbury, and still owed $39.5M over the next three years, moving Gardner to acquire needed pitching and payroll relief makes sense.  Of course, dealing away Elias who is cost controlled and who has shown success at the MLB level, along with a late-inning reliever in Wilhelmsen who has dominating stuff, may be dangerous territory for the Mariners.  But the addition of Karns to the rotation and the emergence of Carson Smith as a viable set-up man allows Dipoto the ability to move some pitching.

With Mike Zunino set to spend 2016 in the minors trying to reinvent himself as a hitter, the Mariners are in need an everyday catcher.  Dipoto’s first move as GM of the Angels back in 2011 was to acquire Iannetta from the Rockies, so a reunion of the two would make sense.  A solid defensive player who works well with pitchers, Iannetta suffered through a down offensive year in 2015 where he slashed a .188/.293/.335 in 92 games.  However, the previous three seasons, Iannetta averaged a .238/.357/.386.  Odds are that Iannetta will revert back to something closer to those numbers, but even if he doesn’t, his 2015 numbers would still be a fairly large upgrade over the .159/.205/.258 the Mariners received out of catcher position last year.

If there was one area last season that killed the Mariners, it was the regression of the bullpen, specifically its inability to hold leads.  Upgrading the bullpen will be a must.  Here, the Mariners bring in Clippard to bolster their late inning relief corps.  A proven set-up man, Clippard also has success closing out games, as seen by his 32 saves for the Nationals in 2012, and 19 saves this past season for the Athletics and Mets.  Depending on how the Mariners use Carson Smith, Clippard will prove invaluable in the late innings either by bridging the gap to the closer, or as the closer himself.

With first baseman Mark Trumbo symbolizing everything Dipoto is not looking for in a player, dealing him to a team looking for power makes sense.  With first baseman Chris Davis a free agent and sure to land a contract out of the Orioles’ price range, the Mariners are able to offer Trumbo as a replacement for Davis at a fraction of the cost.   A former starter, Matusz has spent the last few years pitching out of the Orioles bullpen.  With the Mariners, Matusz would continue to serve that role while also offering the ability to move to the starting rotation if needed.

To fill the void at first base, the Mariners turn to Steve Pearce. Pearce lacks the raw power of Trumbo, but he provides more versatility due to his ability to play a corner outfield position as well as at second or third base.  In addition, Pearce doesn’t come with all the strikeouts that Trumbo does, and he costs half as much.  The downside is that Pearce struggled to a .218/.289/.422 last year (which, really, isn’t that far off from what Trumbo would give you).   The good new, however, is that Pearce’s track record shows much better, as seen by his .292/.373/.556 in 2014, and his .261/.362/.420 in 2013.

Lowe’s return to the Mariners last year resulted in one of his best seasons before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.   In 36 innings pitched for the Mariners, Lowe posted an impressive 1.00 ERA while striking out 47 batters and walking just 11.  Lowe made it known he wouldn’t mind returning to the Mariners in 2016. Dipoto places a great deal of value on strikeout and walk ratios.  With those numbers, the Mariners would be smart to bring the veteran reliever back.

Revamping the outfield will be an important ask for Dipoto.  Seth Smith returns as the regular right fielder against right handed pitching.  Gutiérrez showed last year that he can still wield a potent bat when healthy, producing a .292/.354/.620 and 15 home runs primarily against left handed pitching. Gutiérrez wants to return, and should the Mariners believe he can stay healthy for a second consecutive season, he would, once again, serve as the ideal compliment to Smith in right field.

The Mariners round out their outfield with the underrated Aoki.  While not a power hitter, all Aoki did last year was put up a solid .287/.353/.380 along with a 3.6 UZR in left field.  With Dipoto looking for defense, athleticism, and the ability to get on base, he’ll find all three with Aoki.

Conclusion

With the additions of Iwakuma, Clippard, Matusz and Lowe, the Mariners keep their starting pitching in tact while upgrading their bullpen.  Clippard would provide a closer option, thereby allowing Carson Smith to set-up in the 7th or 8th innings, and Matusz would provide added insurance for the starting rotation.  Dealing Elias and Wilhelmsen could prove risky considering the issues that took place with the starting rotation and bullpen in 2015. But the addition of Gardner in center field and Aoki in left field drastically upgrades an outfield that has been plagued defensively by the likes of Trumbo, Raul Ibanez, Logan Morrison and Nelson Cruz in years past.   While far from flashy, Iannetta and Pearce provide steady play at catcher and first base, with Gutierrez providing right handed thump against left handed pitching for below market cost.

Mariners Need to Emulate Red Sox, Invest Wisely in Free Agency

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One can only imagine that while the Boston Red Sox were celebrating their 2013 World Series championship, there alone sitting in a dark corner office was Jack Zduriencik, astonished from what he was seeing transpire on the TV.

Because that night, Zduriencik had to witness a Red Sox team – one that finished 69-93 just a year ago – be crowned the best team in all of baseball for 2013.

And as second year Boston GM Ben Cherington conveyed to the world that he simply was “just happy to be along for the ride,” one can be sure at that very moment, Zduriencik’s blood pressure began to rise ever so slightly, realizing that, entering his sixth year as GM of the Seattle Mariners, he had yet to put together a team that has allowed him to feel – even for just a moment – “happy to be along for the ride.”

2013 was supposed to be that type of season for Zduriencik and the Mariners.  No, not one that would be punctuated with a World Series Championship.  But one that would see the Mariners continue to grow and reach expectations of surpassing the .500 mark and even possibly contend for a playoff spot.  The type of season that would validate the prolonged rebuilding plan that Zduriencik and Howard Lincoln have vowed was the right path to winning.

But 2013 ended up being quite the opposite.  And the Red Sox World Series championship season only provided further testimony that perhaps Zduriencik needs to re-evaluate the Mariners’ rebuild approach, and maybe take some notes from the Red Sox’s second year GM.

Unlike Zduriencik and the Mariners, Cherington utilizes a develop and contend at the same time approach by placing an importance upon both cultivating homegrown talent, and investing in quality free agents who can facilitate winning in the immediate and in the years to come .

Cherington’s belief, of course, should be nothing new to the Mariners.  It was the same method used by former GM Pat Gillick who dipped heavily into free agency while refraining from trading away top prospects.  But despite the string of 90+ win seasons and playoff appearances accomplished during the Gillick years, these days what is heard from Mariners headquarters is that developing from within, while acquiring cheap disposable stopgap free agents, is the smarter approach.   The theory being that if a low cost veteran acquisition doesn’t pan out, the team can simply cut them mid-season and eat the remaining money owed without being hamstrung by multi-year contract obligations.   Of course, if and when that happens, what truly has occurred is wasted valuable payroll, and a team struggling as a result of poor veteran acquisitions.  And as Mariner fans can attest to the past five seasons, wasted payroll and poor veteran acquisitions has summed up the Mariners and their free agent acquisitions.

What the Mariners need to remember is that if a team goes about free agency with intelligence, the cost-benefit analysis will play to the investor’s favor despite the money spent up front.

The 2013 Boston Red Sox were a prime example of this, and one way this is revealed is via team WAR.

While Zduriencik and the Mariners were busy offering up a king’s ransom for Josh Hamilton, the Red Sox went out and focused their efforts on second-tier free agents. Among those that they signed were Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and David Ross – two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher.  The foursome would fill holes in the Red Sox lineup at a cost of 34.1 million for 2013.

Now, before we go any further, there is the argument that the Mariners were unable to spend 34.1 million on free agents, which would have raised payroll upwards to 100 million.  But let’s not forget that the Mariners were prepared to drop 20 million on Hamilton.  Such a signing would have put payroll around 95 million assuming that a Hamilton acquisition would have eliminated the need to trade for Michael Morse.  As the attempted Hamilton signing illustrates, the money is there to spend.  It’s just a matter of how the Mariners choose to spend it.

After the Mariner’s all-or-nothing pursuit of Hamilton came up empty, Zduriencik – like the Red Sox – acquired two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher to fill holes for 2013. Morse, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Kelly Shoppach would end up costing half as much as the Red Sox’s four acquisitions; 16.25 million for the upcoming season.

According to Baseball-Reference, Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach wound up combining for a dismal 1.8 WAR for the Mariners in 2013. Shoppach ended up being designated for assignment mid-season, and Morse lived up to his can’t-stay-healthy reputation by spending much of the time on the disabled list before being traded to the Orioles.   Despite paying out less than half as much as Boston, Zduriencik spent a whopping 9 million per WAR produced from his veteran acquisitions.

Conversely, Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross would become central players for the Red Sox, combining for 12.1 WAR.  Despite spending over twice as much as the Mariners, Cherington not only received better production, but ended up paying a mere 2.8 million per WAR produced.

The Mariners’ investment costs may have been considerably less, but their returns were practically non-existent.  As the old saying goes, the Mariners got what they paid for.

The Mariners 2013 payroll landed somewhere in the neighborhood of 82 million and finished with a team WAR of 23.2, resulting in a 3.53 million spent per WAR produced.  If, say, the Mariners had acquired Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross instead of Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach, their payroll would have been 99 million, their team WAR would have increased to 33.5, and their per WAR expenditure would have dropped to 2.96 million.

Yes, the Mariners would have needed to spend more money, but in the end, a far better return on their investment would have been achieved.  And any successfully run business will place more importance on returns than on investment costs.

Now, a team WAR of 33.5 would not have been enough to expect a playoff berth.  Normally playoff-caliber teams produce a team WAR of 40 or more.  The average team WAR of the five American League playoff teams this year was 47.12, with Cleveland coming in at the lowest with a team WAR of 39.3.

But a team WAR or 30 or better should result in a .500 or better season.  If we look at the four teams that didn’t make the American League playoffs but who finished with an above .500 record – the Rangers, Orioles, Yankees and Royals – their average team WAR was 38.65 with the Yankees coming in with the lowest team WAR of 30.3 and finishing 85-77.

Accordingly, it can be fairly surmised that if the Mariners had produced a 33.5 team WAR, they would have finished 2013 with at least 81 wins.  With a solid core of returning veterans and expected growth from their blossoming group young players, the Mariners would seemingly be in good position to take the next step towards playoff contention.  But instead, the Mariners went the opposite direction, and ended up distancing themselves as a playoff caliber contender.

There’s no question that the Mariners have a lot of areas that need to be fixed, heading into 2014.  The Mariners currently have no manager, are riddled with holes throughout their starting lineup, rotation, and bullpen, and are being led by a GM whose future with the Mariners is, at best, questionable.

But one area that should be easily corrected entering 2014 is the methodology behind Zduriencik’s veteran acquisitions.  Cheap and safe have not delivered.  It’s time the Mariners take a page out of the Red Sox financial playbook, and begin making shrewd intellectual investments that will generate cost-effective results rather than acquisitions premised primarily on reduced risk, minimal contract obligations, and lowered payroll.