Tag Archives: Playoffs

With the Trade Deadline Approaching, Mariners Should Look at Kevin Gausman

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Despite being 19 games above .500 with a record of 58-39 and in sole possession of the second wild card, the Mariners limped into the All-Star break losers of their last three series including a three game sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Now, after four days of regrouping, the Mariners will push off into the final 65 games of the season looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Part of that “regrouping” will include GM Jerry Dipoto surveying the MLB landscape in hopes of bringing aboard another pitcher prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline to help lessen the workload of his rotation.

In recent weeks, Dipoto has stated an interest in supplementing his rotation with another pitcher, whether that be a starter or reliever.

“[W]e’re not particularly looking to replace anybody because they have all been really strong contributors to what we’re doing. It’s a good group of five. If we have a chance to augment it, we will. But we’re not looking to replace anybody. They’ve all done such a nice job…The only real concern with our starting rotation is as the innings start to pile up, there’s going to be guys who go into innings thresholds and zones they’ve never been to before. We want to be conscious of that.”

Those “inning thresholds” Dipoto speaks of are primarily in regard to the Mariners’ two most inexperienced starters, Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Gonzales has already surpassed his career total in innings (113.1) while LeBlanc has tossed the most innings in a season (85.0 ) since 2010 when he started 25 games for the San Diego Padres and logged 146.0 innings.

But there is some concern regarding a couple of their veteran hurlers as well.

Last season, James Paxton set career highs in games started with 24 and innings pitched with 136.0. This year Paxton has already started 19 games and logged 118.2 innings, and will surely blow past his career highs set last year.

In a precautionary move aimed at taking advantage of the extra off days coinciding with the All-Star break, the Mariners placed Paxton on the 10-day disabled list after exiting his last start with back stiffness.

Felix Hernandez – with 19 starts and 105.1 innings pitched – has already surpassed the number of games started (16) and innings pitched (86.2) from last year’s injury riddled campaign, and is on pace to eclipse his 2016 totals.

And like Paxton, the Mariners placed Hernandez on the 10-day disabled list just before the All-Star break as a protective measure to rest a sore back.

Given the unease towards the rotation’s workload, and now the emergence of possible health issues to two of their experienced rotation pieces, the addition of another arm for the rotation would likely make the most sense for the Mariners.

With Dipoto not wanting to replace any of his current starters, the Mariners could conceivably utilize a six-man rotation allowing Gonzales and LeBlanc to share the fifth starter duties, and provide Paxton and Hernandez the ability to take a day off when needed.

Additionally, another starter would also provide insurance in case of injury and a subsequent stint on the disable list.

Of course, that begs the question: What starting pitcher is available that not only fits the Mariners needs, but is a realistic option in terms of cost?

In the past month, the Mariners have been connected to Cole Hamels of the Rangers, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Hamels and Happ are experienced pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, and either would help the Mariners.

However, both would be rentals as Happ is a free agent at the end of the season, and Hamels’ $20M team option for 2019 would surely be too expensive for the Mariners to pick up. It is difficult envisioning Dipoto spending the necessary prospects to acquire either of the veteran pitchers given the limited tenure that each bring with them.

Alternatively, Boyd would be a more attractive option as he will not be arbitration eligible until 2020, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2022 season.

But Boyd’s career 5.29 ERA (4.81 FIP), and 4.76 ERA this season (4.26 FIP) are numbers the Mariners could receive from in-house options such as Christian Bergman (career 5.54 ERA, 5.01 FIP), Roenis Elias (career 4.15 ERA, 4.33 FIP), or Erasmo Ramirez (career 4.48 FIP).

Others who have been mentioned as possible trade options for teams looking to add starting pitching are Tyson Ross of the Padres, James Shields of the White Sox, Kyle Gibson of the Twins, Matt Harvey of the Reds, Ivan Nova of the Pirates, and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rays.

All of the above-mentioned players could be helpful additions to the Mariners rotation. But questions regarding health (Ross, Eovaldi, Harvey) or production (Shields, Gibson, Nova) makes any cost-benefit analysis lean more towards doubtful than favorable.

One name that has received little trade deadline attention but who would fit nicely in the Mariners rotation is Kevin Gausman.

The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft and former No. 20 MLB prospect has been a solid fixture in the Orioles rotation since 2014.

Since joining the big league club in 2013, Gausman has produced a 4.22 ERA, (4.20 FIP, 3.95 xFIP), a 3.04 K/BB ratio and has averaged 5.7 innings per start. He is tracking those career numbers this season with a 4.33 ERA (4.46 FIP, 3.89 xFIP), 3.59 K/BB ratio, and averaging 5.9 innings per start.

While those numbers are solid, his inability to reach the expectations of becoming a Cy Young caliber ace has been a growing frustration for Orioles’ fans and organization.

But Gausman’s raw abilities can’t be ignored.

His fastball averages 94 mph and is still capable of touching upper 90’s. His changeup, often recognized as one of the best in baseball, sits low 80’s and has tremendous movement. And his slider bites suddenly and sharply making it an effective out pitch.

In addition, Gausman misses bats at an above league average rate (11.5 swSTR%), and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB rate).

Furthermore, Gausman is just entering his prime at age 27, is making a team-friendly $5.6M this year, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2020 season.

There have been no indications that the Orioles are willing to move Gausman, specifically. But with an aging roster and the second worst record in all of baseball, Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM Dan Duquette has stated his team will be moving forward with a rebuild of its roster and baseball operations.

If the Orioles are seriously committed to a complete overhaul, then Gausman should be available for the right offer. But what would that “right offer” have to be?

Any trade proposal would have to start with Kyle Lewis, the Mariners top prospect. It would then have to include a couple more top organizational prospects.

A starting point could be a package consisting of Lewis, starting pitcher Max Povse, and outfielder Anthony Jimenez.

Here, the Mariners would be trading the No. 67 overall rated MLB prospect (Lewis) along with their organization’s No.7 (Povse) and No. 13 (Jimenez) prospects. That package could be tweaked by adding a young player with some MLB experience such as Daniel Vogelbach or even Guillermo Heredia.

Which is reasonable considering last season:

–The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (age 27, 2.5 years of control) from the Athletics for two top-100 MLB prospects in infielder Jorge Mateo (#85) and right-handed starting pitcher James Kaprielian (#87), as well as outfield prospect Dustin Fowler.

–The Chicago Cubs acquired Jose Quintana (age 28, 1.5 years of control) from the Chicago White Sox for two top-100 MLB rated prospects in outfielder Eloy Jimenez (#14) and starting pitcher Dylan Cease (#97), in addition to first base prospect Matt Rose, and infield prospect Bryant Flete.

–The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander (age 34, 2.5 years of control) from the Detroit Tigers for one top-100 MLB rated prospect in starting pitcher Franklin Perez (#54), outfield prospect Daz Cameron (2016’s #74 rated prospect) and catching prospect Jake Rogers.

Gausman is not on the same level as Gray, Quintana, and even Verlander, so he’s not going to command two top-100 MLB prospects like those three did. However, his age, affordability, contract status, and upside should net the Orioles one mid to lower end top-100 prospect.

Naturally, parting with Lewis would be a tough pill to swallow given the dearth of blue chip talent in the Mariners’ minor league system.

Lewis is arguably the one Mariners prospect with star potential. However, early into his professional career, Lewis has already had to deal with a serious knee injury that has not only set back his development, but has raised question whether the knee can hold up to the wear and tear of playing center field.

Many in the Mariners organization believe a move to a corner outfield position is inevitable for Lewis, especially after the Mariners’ recent selection of centerfielder Josh Stowers in the second round of this year’s amateur draft.

If such a move occurs, it will present an interesting future dilemma for the Mariners.

With right field currently occupied for the foreseeable future by All-Star Mitch Haniger, Lewis’ path to the big leagues will lead him to left field.

Then there is 17-year-old Julio Rodriguez, slashing a robust .336/.422/.518 in the Dominican Summer League, who also profiles as a future corner outfielder and middle of the order power bat, and who is projected to reach the big leagues just a year or two after Lewis.

See the predicament?

With Haniger entrenched in right field, and both Lewis and Rodriguez on a trajectory towards left field, something – or someone – is going to have to give.

Considering these factors, if the Mariners believe Rodriguez is the real deal then moving Lewis for productive and controllable pitching makes sense.

Of course, the Mariners have been down this same road before with the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard trade. So naturally, there will be wariness.

But unlike Bedard, Gausman has been durable and injury free throughout his career.

And if the Mariners can get Gausman to take that next step, they will have found what every team dreams of finding: extreme value in impact starting pitching.

Mariners on Verge of Playoffs, McClendon Possibly Manager of Year

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With one game remaining in the regular season, the Mariners find themselves still in the fight for playoff contention.  With last night’s 2-1 extra inning victory over the Anaheim Angels, coupled with the Oakland Athletics’ 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers, Seattle sits just one game behind the A’s for the second wild card.  A Seattle win today along with an Oakland loss will force a one game playoff between the two teams to see which one goes on to play the Kansas City Royals in the wild card loser-out game.

What once looked like a plausible – perhaps even likely -playoff appearance by a red hot Mariners club fresh off a 17-10 August, quickly dissipated as Seattle sputtered down the stretch to a 13-13 September.  But after losing 2 of 3 games from the Houston Astros and then the first 3 of 4 games against the Toronto Blue Jays last week – all but eliminating any hope of the playoffs – the Mariners rattled off three straight wins to keep alive their mathematical chance of extending their season into October.

And despite his team fading down the stretch faster than bleach on denim, manager Lloyd McClendon is garnering Manager of the Year recognition, with some forecasting that he may, in fact, even win it.

And why not?  All McClendon has done is guide the Mariners to an 86-75 record, a 17 game improvement in the win column from just a year ago.  Which, to say, is pretty remarkable considering the Mariners entered the season with only two proven starting pitchers, a questionable bullpen, and a lineup void of a legitimate center fielder, a leadoff hitter, and one more needed middle of the order bat to compliment  Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.   And if that wasn’t enough, starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, along with sluggers Corey Hart and Logan Morrison, all spent significant time on the disabled list during the early part of the year.

And yet, despite all the setbacks, the Mariners find themselves on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

But this isn’t to say McClendon hasn’t made mistakes along the way.  Like all managers, gaffes have occurred.  But McClendon’s miscues have not just been of the customary kind that you find all managers guilty of.  They haven’t merely been of the “leaving a pitching in one batter too long” variety, or letting a hitter swing away rather than lay down a sacrifice bunt.   Rather, they’ve been odd and unorthodox decisions that – in a tight wild card race – can make the difference between a team watching the playoffs from the couch rather than from the field.

We’ve previously covered most of the questionable early season decisions by McClendon, namely: giving rookie Abraham Almonte the starting center field and lead off jobs at the start of Spring Training, believing Justin Smoak was the next coming of Mark Grace at first base, and choosing to play Logan Morrison over Michael Saunders in right field. The negligible offensive production and diminished defensive capabilities resulting from those decisions would contribute to the team’s tepid 11-14 start.

After displacing Almonte with fellow rookie James Jones in center field, and replacing Smoak at first base with Morrison, the Mariners would find their groove, going 62-48 over the next four months and inserting themselves into the playoff conversation.  McClendon was quick to deflect all credit to his players, repeatedly describing his managerial style as a hands-off, game by game “players make out the lineup card” approach.

But come the middle of August, that style would change.  Come mid August, McClendon would begin to tinker.

The hands-off approach that worked miracles to get the Mariners into playoff contention suddenly was replaced by “managing for October,” McClendon’s plan of resting his starting pitchers by skipping starts and using spot-starters to fill in.   Despite admitting that juggling his rotation in this manner could have an ill-effect on the routines of his pitchers, McClendon was adamant doing so would keep his pitchers fresh for the end of September stretch drive, and (as a side benefit) align his pitchers accordingly for the playoffs.

Now, rotation maneuvering of this kind is not uncommon, and is usually a smart thing to do.  That is, a smart thing to do for teams already having secured a spot in the playoffs.  But with nearly six weeks of the season remaining and both wild cards still up for grabs between five teams, managing with an eye fixated so far down the road is, well, puzzling.  Some might even say it breaks one of the basic tenets of managing.

At first, the plan seemed to work.  McClendon pushed back Hernandez to face the wild card contending Blue Jays on August 11th, and used Erasmo Ramirez to spot-start against the White Sox.  Despite a shaky four innings from Ramirez, the Mariners would defeat Chicago, and Hernandez would dominate Toronto and spark a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays.

But McClendon’s fears about the extra days rest began to bear fruit.

Despite the win, Hernandez would fall into a slump over his next three starts, going 0-2, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and a .948 OPS against.

Hernandez’s struggles didn’t stop McClendon from juggling his rotation once more, pushing Hernandez back to face the Nationals on August 29th and, again, using Ramirez to spot-start against the Rangers.   Unlike before, however, Seattle would lose both games.  Compounding matters, Chris Young would labor with his release point in the proceeding series opener against the Athletics, lasting less than an inning in route to a 6-1 loss, and Iwakuma would go winless in his next four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings and attributing his poor pitching to feeling “off-balance” with his mechanics.

McClendon’s tinkering wasn’t just limited to his starting rotation.  The September call-ups saw the return of Smoak, Jones, and Stefan Romero to the big leagues.  All three players had been demoted to Class AAA earlier in the season: Smoak for losing his starting job to Morrison, and rookies Romero and Jones for showing neither was ready to face major league pitching.  Yet, shortly after being recalled, Smoak, Jones and Romero would find themselves in the starting lineup, raising eye brows among many as to how three players previously not worthy enough to be on the 25-man roster were now starting in the heat of the playoff chase.  The decision failed to pay dividends as all three remained offensive liabilities, and an offense that had scored an average of 4.6 runs per game in August slipped to 3.5 runs per game in September.

As Bert Lance famously stated, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  And that probably would have been sage advice for McClendon to have followed with merely 6 weeks remaining in the season and his team playing its best baseball of the season.  Arguably, several of McClendon’s atypical decisions cost his team wins they could not afford to lose.

But McClendon has guided his team beyond expectations, and the fact the Mariners remain in contention on the final day of the season speaks volumes towards the job he has done in his first year at the helm.   At the same time, however, his unorthodox managing – especially down the stretch – may have cost his team a chance at playing in October.  And that, rightfully so or not, may prevent McClendon from taking home the hardware for Manager of the Year.