This past week marked the first full squad workouts for the Mariners this Spring Training, and unless you live off the grid, or are still mired in a post-Super Bowl depression, you know by now that most baseball news outlets and experts have Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer playoff bound for 2015. In a rare moment of togetherness, the Mariners have traditionalists and statisticians both jumping on the Mariner bandwagon and picking them as the trendy team to make some noise this upcoming season.   For example, Fangraphs projects the Mariners being the best team in the American League in 2015. ESPN has them as the second best team.   Baseball Prospectus foresees the Mariners as the third best team. Those certainly are lofty predictions – the kind the Mariners haven’t seen since the days of Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella.

Much of the ballyhoo stems from an off season that – on paper –has propelled the Mariners from just-not-quite-good-enough to one of the best in the league. Heck, even Robinson Cano has caught the “on paper” bug. But are all the accolades deserved and well placed?

Below is a quick run through of the Mariners’ major off season acquisitions; the hope for each player as seen through the eyes of the Mariners; and the red flags that each player brings with them that the Mariners hope don’t rear their ugly head.

Nelson Cruz, DH. Signed to a 4/$57M contract.

The Hope: Cruz led the A.L. in homeruns last season with 40, and provided potent cleanup hitter production with a .859 OPS and a 140 OPS+.   That type of production compelled Jack Zduriencik to commit four years to the to-be 35 year old to bat behind Cano. Moving to the power suppressing chamber known as Safeco Field, Zduriencik and McClendon surely do not expect Cruz to replicate those numbers. But 25 homeruns and an .800 OPS would be a huge and welcomed upgrade at a position that yielded a paltry .190/.266/.301 from 16 players last season.

The Red Flag: The knock on Cruz has been that his career numbers are propelled by playing in hitter friendly ball parks. The criticism bears merit, especially when looking at his overall numbers in pitcher friendly A.L. West ballparks where Cruz owns a career .749 OPS at Safeco, a .571 OPS at Oakland Coliseum, and a .654 OPS at Angel Stadium.   Those stadiums will be home to roughly 60% of Cruz’s games in 2015, and if his numbers in those parks remain near his career averages, the Mariners will have spent a lot of money for production they could have received by merely moving Michael Saunders to DH.

Seth Smith, RF. Acquired from San Diego for Brandon Maurer  

The Hope: After the perplexing Saunders saga and trade, and then the inability to sign Melky Cabrera, Zduriencik acquired Smith to be the everyday right fielder against RHP. Smith is not the defender that Saunders is, but he ostensibly brings a few key upgrades to right field, namely the ability to stay healthy, a career .800 OPS, a career .839 OPS against RHP, and the proven ability to hit in a spacious ballpark (.841 OPS hitting in Petco Park last season).

The Red Flag: The past three seasons, Smith has displayed some fairly concerning first/second half splits. Consider the following:

2014 – First Half:  .895 OPS, Second half:  .685 OPS

2013 – First Half:  .742 OPS, Second Half:  .659 OPS

2012 – First Half:  .789 OPS, Second Half:  .702 OPS

This penchant for tailing-off in the second half should be worrisome and could end up being problematic for a team relying on Smith to produce in order to contend for a playoff spot.   Smith seemingly represents an upgrade over the .721 OPS they received out of right field a year ago, but it should be noted that Saunders’ second half numbers the past three years have trumped those of Smith. Which begs the question: would one rather have an above average defensive player who starts off slow, finishes strong, but ends the year with average overall numbers? Or a below average defensive player who gets off to a hot start, fades badly in the second half, but still finishes with above average overall numbers?  According to advanced metrics, it seems the answer would be the former, as Saunders’ rWAR the past three seasons matches that of Smith’s (5.8) but tops Smith’s fWAR during this same time (5.3 to 4.9).

Justin Ruggiano, OF. Acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Matt Brazis.

 The Hope: Ruggiano’s acquisition was premised on one main attribute: his ability to mash left handed pitching. Over his career, Ruggiano owns an .836 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners hope Ruggiano continues that trend helping to form a potent platoon with Smith in right field. Defensively, Ruggiano has been adequate across all three outfield positions and will backup Dustin Ackley in left and Austin Jackson in center.

The Red Flag. Zduriencik has gone on record stating that Ruggiano is not just a part-time platoon player, but someone who could play every day if needed. That’s a fairly big leap of faith for someone who has played more than 91 games in a season just once. And when he did (128 games in 2013) Ruggiano struggled greatly against RHP, slashing a .210/.283/.347 in 322 plate appearances.

Rickie Weeks, Utility. Signed to a 1/$2M contract.

 The Hope: Weeks brings another right handed bat to the Mariners, one that has produced a career .834 OPS against lefties including an .865 OPS last season. Although never having spent a moment in the outfield, Zduriencik and the Mariners envision Weeks platooning with Ackley in left field, as well as providing a right handed alternative at 3B, 2B and 1B if needed.

The Red Flag: Did we mention that Weeks has never played the outfield before during his career? In addition, Weeks will turn 33 in 2015 and has been nothing short of a below average to poor defensive second baseman the past three seasons due to his declining ability to get to balls put in play. Those are not good signs for someone who is expected to log most of his time in left field.

J.A. Happ, SP. Acquired from Toronto for Michael Saunders.    

The Hope: An obvious need for the Mariners during the offseason was acquiring starting pitching depth, and the Mariners believe Happ’s addition adds just that. Despite being used as a reliever at times last year, Happ managed 26 starts going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and averaged close to six innings per start.  Projected as this year’s fourth starter, the Mariners would be happy to receive that type of production from Happ again.

The Red Flag: Happ represents more of a replacement for the departed Chris Young than he does added depth. More concerning, however, is Happ’s injury history. Happ missed significant time in 2012 and 2013 due to injuries including a skull fracture suffered in 2013 after being struck in the head by a line drive. A sore back then landed Happ on the disabled list to the start of 2014. With the rotation likely featuring two inexperienced rookies (James Paxton and Taijuan Walker) coming off arm injuries, and their only other viable starter (Roenis Elias) also coming off arm injury, the Mariners will need Happ to stay healthy to provide “depth” and rotation stability.