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Seattle Mariners 2025 Offseason Plan

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After the Mariners fell one game short of the playoffs in 2023, Cal Raleigh had some choice words for ownership: Go get us players for 2024.

Cal’s request was a bit more of a “where’s the commitment” shade thrown at the front office, but bringing in better players was the general theme.

“We’ve got to commit to winning, we have to commit to going and getting those players you see other teams going out and getting —  big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up…we’ve done a great job of growing some players here and within the farm system, but sometimes you’ve got to go out and you have to buy.”

The Mariners seemingly took Raleigh’s words to heart. No, they didn’t go spend $700M on Shohei Ohtani. But President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, and General Manager, Justin Hollander, did go out and acquire a handful of solid players with proven track records.

Jorge Polanco, coming off a 117 wRC+, was acquired from the Twins to take over second base. Mitch Garver was signed away from the division rival Rangers where his 140 wRC+ in ’23 looked to be the perfect fit at designated hitter. Luke Raley, fresh of a career high 129 wRC+, was acquired from the Rays to provide left-handed thump from the outfield, first base, or designated hitter. And in a swap of contracts, the Mariners parted with Robbie Ray and brought back Mitch Haniger to reclaim his spot in right field. Haniger suffered through his second straight injury-plagued season in ’23, but the Mariners hoped an injury-free Haniger would provide offense closer to his last healthy season in ’21 where he posted a 120 wRC+ across 157 games.

The additions didn’t stop with the offense. Dipoto added much needed late inning depth to the bullpen by adding 98 mph heat in the form of Gregory Santos to join fellow leverage relievers Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. The 25-year-old was coming off a season where he posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 66 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched.

Despite a slow start by the offense, the Mariners jumped out to a 10-game lead over the second place Astros in the AL West by the middle of June thanks to the M’s dominant starting pitching. However, persisting offensive struggles up and down the lineup would eventually catch up to the team.  

Polanco, Garver and Haniger never got on track, and Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and JP Crawford all struggled for the majority of the season. Even Raleigh struggled for the first three months of the year with an underwhelming .202/.289/.390 and 97 wRC+ through June.

And making matters even worse, Rodriguez, France, and Crawford all ended up missing significant time due to injuries. 

By the middle of July, that cushy 10-game lead in mid-June had been surrendered to the Astros despite a starting rotation ranking 1st in ERA (3.36) and 2nd in FIP (3.63) in the American League.

Several in-season moves were made to try and awaken a dormant offense. Among those moves:

  • May 31: Bench coach and offensive coordinator Brant Brown was fired.
  • July 30 trade deadline: Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner – two of the top hitters available – were acquired. Arozarena took over LF and Turner replaced Ty France at 1B, who was then DFA’d and traded to the Reds.
  • August 22: Manager Scott Servais and Director of Hitting Jarret DeHart were given pink slips. Former Mariners players Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over as manager and hitting coach.

After the firings of Servais and DeHart, the offense finally showed life where the team put up a 125 wRC+ over the final two months of the season, a performance good enough to rank 3rd in the MLB over that time. However, it was too little too late as the Mariners fell a game shy of making the playoffs. 

At his end of the season presser, Dipoto and Hollander spoke about their realization of the type of adjustments that need to be made in order to have a better suited roster for T-Mobile Park. It wasn’t quite clear what these adjustments were, but the inference seemed to be an offense less reliant on right-side fly ball pull hitters and more focus on contact hitters who can spray the ball from gap to gap.   

“We learned where we may be doing things the wrong way and we have to make adjustments,” Dipoto said. “Not just an approach on the field, but in how we put the roster together and maybe in some of the things we’re looking for and in how those things fit in our ballpark – maybe that’s been the greatest lesson for us this year. Hopefully, we’re able to adapt the lessons we’ve learned to building the ’25 team.”

Moments later, however, Dipoto raised a few eyebrows by suggesting any “lessons we’ve learned” may simply come from the players already on the roster.

“We’ve been a good run-scoring offense on the road,” Dipoto said. “I think we can be a good run-scoring offense both at home and on the road with a more balanced approach. … The team has shown that they are capable of doing this – that we don’t need to to go out and revamp our roster. There’s a reason we’ve had a good team for a handful of years now, and it’s because our players are good.”

As most fans know, having a “good team” hasn’t been good enough for the Mariners over the past two seasons.  The challenge facing Dipoto and Hollander will be getting a good team back to being a playoff team, and that type of task is rarely solved by relying on the status quo.  Changes in player personnel will be needed, especially for a team that will enter the offseason with question marks at third base, second base, and first base. 

Of course, any meaningful changes will be dictated by ownership’s willingness to increase payroll.  While it has been reported that spending will go up from last year, it is also believed it won’t go up significantly. Most speculation has landed on the front office having about $15M to $20M to spend.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2025 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Logan Evans and LHP Brandyn Garcia to the Cardinals for 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Brendan Donovan, and $12M

The skinny:  After falling short of the playoffs in 2024, the Cardinals have decided to undergo a “reset” with a focus on developing their next core group of young players to lead them to playoff contention starting in 2027.  Naturally, veteran Nolan Arenado should be available if he is willing to waive his no trade clause, and if any team is willing to take on all  – or a good portion of – the remaining $74M owed over the next three years. While no longer the offensive player he once was, Arenado is still a solid hitter who possesses the bat-to-ball skills the Mariners desire. He can also flash the leather at the hot corner with the best of them. Twenty-seven-year-old Brendan Donavan also possesses excellent bat skills and is a strong defender.  In return, the Mariners part with a pair of top organizational starting pitchers in No. 10 prospect Logan Evans and No. 16 prospect Brandyn Garcia. Mitch Haniger and his remaining one year and $15.5M is also sent to St. Louis to offset Arenado’s contract.

Trade C/DH Mitch Garver, LF Dominic Canzone, and RHP Hunter Cranton to the Padres for 2B Luis Arraez

The skinny:  The Mariners signed Garver last offseason to be their primary designated hitter but after struggling early on to get on track, the Mariners relegated Garver to backup catcher and went with Luke Raley and Justin Turner at designated hitter for the majority of the second half. The Padres acquired Luis Arraez mid-season to fill their need at second base.  But Arraez’s poor defense led him to being moved to first base, and then eventually to designated hitter. With the Padres in the market for a catcher and both Arraez and Garver set to make similar salaries in 2025, the stars seemed aligned for the two teams to make a swap to fill each team’s respective needs. 

Sign 1B/DH Justin Turner to a 1 year, $8M contract

The skinny:  The Mariners traded for Turner at the deadline to fill their first base and designated hitter needs and the 39-year-old responded by producing a slash line of .264/.363/.403, a 126 wRC+, and continued to display above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills.  At age 40, the question is whether Turner has another productive year left in the tank?  The Mariners seemingly believe there’s at least one more productive year as they’ve stated an interest in bringing Turner back for the ’25 season.

Sign LHP Caleb Ferguson to a 1 year, 1.5M contract

The skinny: Caleb Ferguson is coming off a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season where he posted a 4.28 FIP and allowed 1.35 HR/9 with the Yankees, but then a 2.88 FIP and 0.43 HJR/9 after getting traded to the Astros. Ferguson did see his average velo on his four-seamer drop a few ticks to 93.6 mph, but he still ranked well above average in limiting hard contact and missing bats, something the Mariners haven’t had from a southpaw since maybe Arthur Rhodes toed the rubber nearly two decades ago. 

Sign C Yasmani Grandel to 1 year, $1M contract

The skinny: The Mariners will need to restock their catching depth behind starter Cal Raleigh and the recently departed Seby Zavala.  Grandel no longer wields the bat like he once did, but he is a solid defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff well and is lauded for his leadership and ability to make in game adjustments.  It’s possible that Grandel could be had on a minor league deal, but given the dearth of viable catching options behind Raleigh, it may require a MLB deal to ensure the Mariners secure Grandel’s services.

The Wrap

The Mariners, again, find themselves heading into the offseason with the task of putting together an offensive lineup that can match their talented pitching staff.  Dipoto and Hollander believed they had accomplished that after focusing much of last year on acquiring hitter’s better skilled at not striking out. That never materialized, though, as the Mariners led the MLB last season with a 26.8% K-rate.

Dipoto and Hollander now claim to know the secret recipe for hitting at T-Mobile Park. Again, it’s uncertain what those exact adjustment are since neither went into specifics. But staying away from strikeouts will likely remain a priority. And with there no longer being a need to hit the ball over the shift, adding more contact hitters would be a good bet.

The first move in our offseason plan is nabbing Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. This is reminiscent of the Mariners acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker where the Mariners not only filled two needs, but also lowered the asking price on Winker by agreeing to take on the contract of Suarez. Assuming Arenado is willing to be traded, the $74M still owed to him over the next three years would have to be figured out for a Mariners ownership unwilling to take on that amount of money.  The Rockies are on the hook for $10M of that sum, and another $12M will be deferred to 2038. That would leave the Mariners on the hook for $21M in 2025, $16M in 2026, $15M in 2027 and then $12M in deferred money. 

Salary-wise, $52M over three years is probably still too rich for ownership. So to offset Arenado’s contract, the Mariners include Haniger who no longer appears to have a role on the team after the acquisitions of Arozarena and Robles. That would reduce the overall money owed to $36.5M over three years which is about the price ownership was willing to pay for Eugenio Suarez. The Cardinals would also chip in $12M to cover the deferred money owed in 2038.

Arenado may no longer be the yearly all-star and MVP caliber player he once was, but the eight-time all-star is still a fairly productive player.  While his power dipped a fair amount in ’24 (.394 slugging, 16 HRs) Arenado still produced a .272 average, a .325 OBP, struck out just 14.5% of the time, and sported an 84.4% contact rate.  Arenado can also still provide elite level defense where he was worth +6 defensive runs saved and +9 outs above average at the hot corner.  That all added up to Arenado being a 3.1 fWAR player last year, and if the Mariners can obtain close to that type of value in each of the next three seasons for $12M per, then they should be all over it.    

While Arenado fills the need at third base, the primary target in the trade is Donovan who slashed a .278/.342/.417 with 14 HRs, 34 doubles, and struck out just 13.5% of the time in ’24. Donovan’s contact rate of 86.6% was nearly 10% better than league average.  In addition, Donovan is a plus defender who can fill the Mariners second base needs until top prospect Cole Young is ready to be called up. When that happens, the versatile Donovan can move to another position either in the infield or outfield.  And with Donovan’s three years of control, the Mariners can take their time with Cole and move him up only when they are certain he is ready.

With the Cardinals undergoing what they call a two-year “reset,” Haniger would be able to provide a year of veteran leadership for what will be a very young lineup in ’25, with the possibility of being a movable piece at the trade deadline. The far more enticing acquisitions for the Cardinals, though, is Mariners’ No. 10 and top pitching prospect, Logan Evans, and No. 16 prospect, pitcher Brandyn Garcia. Both are viewed as future rotation arms about a year away, which perfectly fits the Cardinals competitive time-table.

Evans features a two-seamer that sits mid 90’s and is complimented by a slider that misses bats and an effective cutter against righties. The Mariners toyed with the idea of moving Evans to the bullpen last year so he could come up late in the season and add relief help. But the organization decided to keep him as a starter and the righty responded by going 6-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 22 starts and striking out 102 batters in 105.2 innings for Class AA Arkansas.

Garcia sports three plus pitches including a fastball that can amp up to 98 mph. His other offerings include a sharp cutter and a big sweeping slider. The 6′ 4″ lefty made a combined 27 starts for Class High A Everett and Class AA Arkansas and recorded a 2.01 ERA while striking out 132 batters in 116.1 innings. Some question whether the rotation is where Garcia will be most effective as a major leaguer, but so far Garcia has shown nothing to support a move to the bullpen.

Last season’s “big” free agent signing, Mitch Garver, also appears to be in a bit of positional limbo. The Mariners are banking on Garver bouncing back after producing a .172/.286/.341 and a 30.9% strikeout rate. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Garver regress closer to his career norm, but with Luke Raley now pushed into a first base/designated hitter role against right-handed pitching, and Dipoto eyeing Justin Turner to return to the first base/designated hitter role he played last year, it begs the question as to how Garver will be used in the coming season?  If the Mariners are looking to sign Turner – or perhaps Carlos Santana who is also reportedly on Dipoto’s wish list – then Garver would end up being, once again, a very pricey backup catcher. 

About a day’s drive south of Seattle, the Padres are also undergoing a similar “where to play him” situation with their second baseman turned first baseman turned designated hitter.  The Padres made an in-season trade for Luiz Arraez and plugged the (then) two-time batting champion in at second base.  However, Arraez’s defensive struggles forced the Padres to move him to first base and, when those struggles persisted, they consigned him to be their designated hitter.  

Arraez finished the year winning his third straight batting title with a .314 average to go along with a .346 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. All of which makes one question why the Padres would entertain trading Arraez?  Reportedly, the Padres would like to give Manny Machado more time at designated hitter and wouldn’t be able to do so with Arraez entrenched at that spot.  Additionally, the Padres are not fully convinced that Arraez – a singles and doubles hitter – is who they want occupying a power position.  

Garver would help fill the Padres catching needs where Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz are both free agents, and returning catcher Luis Campusano (.227/.281/.361) looks more like a part-time player rather than someone capable of everyday duty. When not catching, Garver could also provide time at designated hitter and take a few innings at first base, if needed.  

Of course, any interest in Garver from the Padres would hinge on the belief that 2024 was just an offensive outlier. A .216 BABIP would suggest a certain amount of bad luck was at play. And there have been comments from around the league – most recently by Teoscar Hernandez – about an unidentifiable uncomfortableness when hitting at T-Mobile Park. A change of scenery for Garver could result in a return to more career-type production, much like was the case for Hernandez.

With the Padres also looking for a left fielder, the Mariners part with Dominic Canzone who has shown flashes of offensive & defensive upside but just hasn’t had the opportunity to establish himself yet. With the M’s outfield already set for next year, the odds of Canzone finding more opportunity with the team is slim to none. ZiPS projections has Canzone producing a slightly better than average .242/.299/.415 and a 106 OPS+ across 402 plate appearances in 2025, which could suit the Padres just fine given Canzone is still pre-arbitration. Those saving would allow the Padres to allocate more money to filling their other needs such as shortstop and first base.

The Mariners also include their No. 30 ranked prospect in RHP Hunter Cranton. The 24-year-old made waves during his first taste of professional ball last year by showcasing a 98 mph fastball that hit triple digits. That type of heat resulted in Cranton being ranked by Baseball America as possessing the best arm in the Mariners organization. In a limited action after being drafted in the 3rd round, Cranton pitched to a 3.24 ERA and racked up 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings for Class A Modesto. Cranton is projected as future late inning reliever who shouldn’t require much time in the minors.

For the Mariners, Arraez represents what the team is sorely lacking. The 27-year-old had a 94.1% contact rate and sprayed the ball evenly to all parts of the field (32.7% LF, 37.5% CF, 29.8% RF).  Arraez’s high contact rate does come with downside as he rarely strikes out (4.3% K rate in 2024) and walks are far and few between (3.6% BB rate).  Additionally, there won’t be much in the longball department either. But Arraez would certainly provide the type of “adjustment” that Dipoto and Hollander are seemingly seeking and – kicking traditionalism out the window – the three-time batting champion could slot in nicely as the Mariners primary designated hitter.

Justin Turner was a player I had hoped the M’s would sign last offseason (as well as Arozarena) so I was quite pleased when Turner (and Arozarena) was acquired at the trade deadline. Not only did he produce, but Turner provided a veteran presence that had been sorely missing since Carlos Santana was let go after 2022. Turner showed to be the type of player Cal Raleigh asked the front office to go get – a “been there, done that” veteran. With both Turner and Dipoto expressing mutual interest in a reunion, it seems quite likely that a deal will get done.

Last season saw Matt Brash and Gregory Santos – two of the team’s top leverage arms – go down with injuries, forcing the Mariners to lean heavily on Andres Munoz in late inning situations. It seemed like Dan Wilson relied on Munoz to save every game down the stretch, creating anxiety among fans that Munoz’s arm would fall off at any moment. With both Brash and Santos expected to be recovered from injuries, the Mariners bullpen shouldn’t require much tinkering prior to opening day. At the same time, however, with Brash and Santos both coming back from injuries, adding one more proven relief arm wouldn’t be the worst idea.

For most of his career, Caleb Ferguson has been one of the better – and underrated – relief arms in baseball. For the first six seasons of his career, Ferguson produced a 3.43 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 10.7 K/9 serving primarily as the Dodgers’ 7th inning bridge to setup men like Pedro Baez and Blake Treinen. The Yankees acquired Ferguson last year to bolster their bullpen but Ferguson struggled to get on track, posting a 5.13 ERA and 4.29 FIP over his first 42 appearances. Ferguson was then acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline where he regressed closer to his career norms with a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 20 appearances.  

With the trade of Garver to the Padres, and Seby Zavala signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox, Cal Raleigh would enter spring training as the only catcher with any substantial MLB experience. The Mariners do have highly rated prospect Harry Ford percolating in the minors, and while Ford might see his first MLB action sometime in ’25, he is probably a year away from any sort of meaningful playing time.

To address this, the Mariners tap Yasmani Grandel to serve as Raleigh’s backup for 2025. The 35-year-old Grandel split time at catcher for the Pirates last year where he slashed an underwhelming .228/.304/.400. But Grandel still showed a solid approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate, and an above average 81.3% contact rate. Additionally, Grandel received praise for his game calling, defense, and the way he handled the pitching staff.  For a Mariners team needing just a start or two per week from their backup catcher, Grandel would adequately fill such a role.

All said and told, the above transactions would put the Mariners just over the $160M payroll mark for 2025. According to Roster Resource, the Mariners finished the 2024 season with a $144M payroll so that should fit within budget.

Seattle Mariners 2024 Offseason Plan

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The Seattle Mariners entered the 2023 season picked by most experts to make the playoffs.  At season’s end, the M’s fell short of expectations, finishing one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card berth. 

President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto, fell on the proverbial baseball sword, conceding he didn’t do enough during the offseason to improve the lineup. Of his four main offensive acquisitions – Teoscar Hernandez, AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong, and Tommy La Stella – only Hernandez came close to his expected production and remained with the team for the entire season.  

Pollock, acquired to crush left handed pitching, produced a woeful .135/.188/.363 against lefties and was dealt to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline for a player to be named later. The Mariners couldn’t find takers for Wong, .165/.241/.227, or La Stella, .190/.292/.238, and both were released, the latter just 31 games into the season.

While Dipoto was correct that more could have been done, a good share of the blame also rested on a veteran offensive core that failed to show for most of the first half.

Through June, the Mariners’ offense ranked 19th in all of MLB with an underwhelming 95 wRC+.  The likes of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez posted league average or worse offensive numbers that helped contribute to a 38-42 start.  

A huge offensive turnaround in July and August (130 wRC+) saw the Mariners sitting atop the AL West as late as September 3.  However, with the Mariners in control of their playoff destiny, the offense (95 wRC+), starting pitching (4.69 FIP), and bullpen (4.90 FIP) stalled over the final month resulting in 17 losses across the team’s final 29 games.

As the Mariners head into the offseason, Dipoto has stated the team’s primary objective is to upgrade the offense with hitter’s better skilled at making contact and putting the ball in play. Among all teams in ’23, the Mariners finished with the second most strikeouts and third fewest batted balls put in play. This combination proved detrimental when it came to moving runners into scoring position and driving them in.  The front office has stated it will explore both trades and free agents to make this necessary improvement.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2024 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade SP Bryce Miller, OF Jarred Kelenic, and OF Zach DeLoach to the Rays for OF Randy Arozarena and 2B Brandon Lowe

The skinny: The Mariners are looking for offensive upgrades and would love another impact bat to pair with Julio Rodriguez. The Rays need starting pitching help and – as is their yearly tradition – are looking to cut payroll.  Here, the Mariners help the Rays out by taking a projected $18M off their books for ’24 with the acquisitions of Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe. In return, the Mariners send the Rays young fireballer Bryce Miller who posted a 3.98 FIP over 25 starts in his rookie campaign, outfielder Jarred Kelenic who produced a .746 OPS, and minor league outfielder Zach DeLoach who slashed a .286/.387/.481 and hit 23 home runs at Class AAA.    

Trade SP Emerson Hancock and OF Taylor Trammell to the Twins for OF Max Kepler and C Jair Camargo

The skinny: The Twins find themselves in the unenviable position of wanting to add starting pitching while needing to cut payroll by upwards of $25M. Max Kepler produced one of his best seasons last year by slashing .260/.332/.484 but the $10M he will earn in ’24 makes him a prime candidate to be moved. Former top prospect Emerson Hancock broke into the majors last season where he started three games and produced a 4.09 FIP. Despite being shut down for the year due to a shoulder strain, Hancock is expected to be fully recovered for the ’24 season. 

The teams also swap outfielder Taylor Trammell, who is out of options with the Mariners and catcher Jair Camargo, who is likely to be left unprotected by the Twins in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.    

Sign P Yariel Rodriguez to a 4 year, $35M deal

The skinny: After trading Miller to the Rays, the Mariners add pitching depth by signing Yariel Rodriguez who features a high-90’s fastball and an array of above average secondary pitches. The 26-year-old was a starter during his playing days in Cuba (2015-2020) but after signing to play professionally in Japan with the Chunichi Dragons, Rodriguez was used exclusively in relief where he posted a 10-10 record, 3.03 ERA, and 188 strikeouts in 79 relief appearances. Rodriguez joined Team Cuba’s rotation for the ’23 World Baseball Classic, making two starts and posting a 2.45 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings pitched. 

Sign 3B Justin Turner to a 2 year, $20M deal

The skinny: Don’t let age fool you.  The 38-year-old Justin Turner showed he still has the offensive goods in 2023 by slashing a .276/.345/.455 with 23 tanks and displaying above average plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills.  That type of production compelled the veteran to turn down a $13.4M player option for 2024 in hopes of landing a more lucrative multi-year deal.  Turner should be able to find that with a Mariners team seeking Turner’s offensive production and skill-set.

Sign C Victor Caratini to a 2 year, $8M deal

The skinny: After producing an .879 OPS over the past two seasons, back-up catcher Tom Murphy finds himself in demand as a free agent. The Mariners would love to bring Murphy back, but retaining his services may prove too expensive and risky given Murphy’s recent struggles with health.  Rather than overpay for the 32-year-old, the Mariners pivot and sign Victor Caratini.  The switch hitter offers good plate discipline and solid contact skills where he slashed .259/.327/.383 with an 8.4% walk rate and just a 19.9% strikeout rate in 2023.  Defensively, Caratini possesses a below average arm but is solid at blocking and framing pitches, and handles a pitching staff well.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with one main goal: to improve the offense by cutting down on strikeouts and improving contact.

While the organization has embraced high strikeouts over the past few years as long as those strikeouts were accompanied by power and impact, Dipoto has decided a new direction is needed after last year’s lineup was plagued by far too many whiffs. The Mariners’ front office has not delved into all the specifics for this philosophical change, but one would have to assume the new MLB rule changes – resulting in more base hits and stolen bases – were a prominent factor. These changes have placed less importance on homeruns and more importance on putting the ball in play.

The first move in this quest is pulling off a blockbuster trade. The 28-year-old Arozarena will be entering the second of four arbitration years and the ever cost-conscience Rays will be faced with paying their star outfielder more than double of what he earned last season, and more over each of the next two seasons. Arozarena produced a .254/.364/.425, 23 home runs, a 126 wRC+ last season, and would slot nicely into left field for the Mariners.

Given the fact the team already has the recently acquired Josh Rojas as well as Dylan Moore capable of handling the keystone, second baseman Brandon Lowe is a bit of a redundant acquisition. But the Mariners need more offense and Lowe represents a potentially significant offensive boost.

Two seasons ago the former all-star put up an .863 OPS and hit 39 homeruns. Since then, however, injuries have slowed Lowe as he’s dealt with neck and lower back issues. When healthy, Lowe is a highly productive hitter, and his 117 wRC+ last year would have been fourth best among the team’s regulars. In terms of where to use Lowe, he could be moved between second base, designated hitter, and perhaps even the outfield where he has previously logged time. Or, more likely, Lowe would become the primary option at second base with Rojas moving into a super utility role. In other words, if the Rays are open to including Lowe in a cost cutting deal, the Mariners shouldn’t be afraid of adding him as there are several ways he can be utilized in a lineup.

The decision to include Kelenic along with Miller could be controversial depending on how one envisions his ongoing development and fit with the team.

Kelenic showed improved production last season but still struggled with contact (69.7%) and continued to be susceptible to off-speed and breaking pitches. Still, the 24-year-old has an all-star player ceiling and Kelenic’s progress last season (.253/.327/.419, 108 wRC+) should be taken as a sign that such upside still exists. The Mariners, though, are in win-now mode and are looking for redemption after a disappointing 2023 season. As such, including Kelenic in a deal for two established hitters is a cost worth paying.

If Miller and Kelenic are not enough, the Mariners could sweeten the deal by adding a prospect like outfielder Zach DeLoach, the team’s 25th ranked prospect. DeLoach has long been favorably looked upon by Mariners coaches, and he should be ready to challenge for MLB playing time after a strong Class AAA season. However, DeLoach has fallen in the Mariners outfield depth rankings where he now finds himself behind Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe, both of whom made their MLB debuts last season and figure to have the inside track for spots on the ’24 roster.

With an emphasis on reducing strikeouts, the Mariners opted not to offer Teoscar Hernandez a qualifying offer as reports from MLB insiders surfaced that Hernandez’s willingness to accept a 1 year, $20.3M qualifying offer was greater than first expected. Seeking better contact skills, Max Kepler presents a much better option than Hernandez. The 30-year-old Kepler has consistently been a league average or better offensive player who possesses good plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Kepler is also solid defensively at all three outfield positions. 

To acquire Kepler, the Mariners part with starting pitcher Emerson Hancock who was the No. 31 rated prospect in baseball. Hancock was considered a future top of the rotation starter when drafted, but shoulder injuries early in his career stalled his development and most scouts now peg him as a mid-rotation starter. Much like DeLoach, Hancock has been surpassed by other prospects within the Mariners organization as both Miller and Bryan Woo leap frogged Hancock last year and have established themselves in the Mariners rotation. Hancock did get called up mid season, but shoulder discomfort two innings into his third start shut him down for the remainder of the year. Hancock is expected to be ready for Spring Training and, presuming good health, he should have a strong chance of winning a spot in the Twins rotation. 

Taylor Trammell’s skill set – both offensively and defensively – has tantalized Mariners coaches since coming over in trade from the Padres, and the former top prospect did nothing to dampen those expectations in ’23 by putting up another solid year with a .260/.390/.530 at Class AAA. Trammell, however, is out of minor league options and is faced with the task of breaking into a very crowded Mariners outfield. With the Twins faced with losing starting center fielder, Michael A Taylor, to free agency, Trammell could fill a need for the Twins in the upcoming season.

Somewhat similar to Trammell’s situation is Twins prospect Jair Camargo. The 23-year-old is a free-swinger (32.3% strikeout rate in ’23) who carries some pop in his bat (.503 slugging, 21 homeruns for the Twins’ AAA affiliate last year). The Twins would ideally love to keep Camargo in their system, but a 40-man roster crunch may mean the organization will have to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft.  After the Mariners designated Bryan O’Keefe for assignment and Luis Torrens elected free agency over being reassigned to the minors, the addition of Camargo would offer the Mariners some sorely needed catching depth.     

Perhaps the biggest source of angst last year came at the designate hitter position where fans watched Tommy La Stella, AJ Pollock, and Cooper Hummel contribute to a 52 wRC+ at DH for the first two months of the season. Things stabilized a bit after Mike Ford was called up and got off to a scorching first 30 games with a .944 OPS and 157 wRC+.  But over his final 53 games Ford cooled off, producing a .709 OPS, 104 wRC+, and a 34.4% strikeout rate.      

Not wanting to repeat this mistake two years in a row, the Mariners tap Justin Turner to become their primary designated hitter.  Turner proved Father Time has yet to catch up to him as the veteran tallied an .800 OPS, 23 home runs, and 31 doubles in his 15th season in the bigs.  While Turner is no longer an every day option defensively, his glove is still good enough to garner some games at either corner infield position if the need presented itself.

Tom Murphy has been one of the most productive backup catchers in baseball where he owns a .250/.324/.460 over the past four seasons. Murphy has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching where he has a career .262/.352/.489. However, Murphy has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons and will be another year older. Additionally, his propensity for strikeouts no longer fits in with a team now looking for more contact.

That said, solid offensive production at the catcher position is a highly sought after commodity and teams will come calling for Murphy’s services.  At age 32, Murphy may see this as his best chance at leveraging a lucrative contract, possibly even as a starter, and most likely will be drawn to the highest contract offered. With Cal Raleigh set to see the majority of games behind the dish, the Mariners probably won’t engage in a bidding war for Murphy’s services, and may view the younger, healthier, and arguably more well-rounded Cartini a better fit to serve as Raleigh’s backup.       

The Mariners complete their offseason by signing the intriguing and versatile Yariel Rodriguez. The 26-year-old possesses a fastball that sits mid-90’s along with a cache of solid secondary offerings: slider, curveball, splitter and changeup. Scouts are mixed as to where Rodriguez would best be suited as an MLB pitcher. Some see Rodriguez as an effective fourth or fifth starter.  Others see Rodriguez as a dominant set-up man out of a bullpen. Such flexibility works ideally for a Mariners team who, at this point, have yet to know if Marco Gonzales will be healthy enough to reclaim a spot in the starting rotation. If, as expected, Gonzales is healthy, Rodriguez would join Matt Brash and Andres Munoz as late inning leverage arm.  However, should Gonzales need more time, the Mariners could slot Rodriguez into the rotation and then have the option of moving him to the bullpen once Gonzales is ready to go.

The Pitch Clock Could Destroy Baseball as We Know It

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The 2023 season is upon us.  The pitch clock is officially in.  And let’s be real…the pitch clock needs to go.      

No, not because “traditionalists” are resistant to change, as is often trumpeted by millennials and Gen Z’ers whose worldview is far too often skewed by bandwidth and pixels. 

And, no, it’s not because a three hour sporting event is too long and pushes fans away. 

Rather, it’s because the pitch clock is having the unintended (or intended?) effect of changing the very spirit of the game that has been the root of its generational appeal and beauty.

As author Edward Abbey penned in 1990 regarding his take of America’s great pastime: 

“Baseball is a slow, sluggish game, with frequent and trivial interruptions, offering the spectator many opportunities to reflect at leisure upon the situation on the field: This is what a fan loves most about the game.”

For someone who spent most of their time voicing controversial takes on environmental issues, Abbey’s observation of baseball is a notable and astute precis. Unlike the three other major North American professional sports leagues (NFL, NBA, NHL) Major League Baseball has been the lone game not bound by time or duration.  Clock management has never been a thing.  No one has ever reflected back on the outcome of a baseball game wishing, “If only there had been a more time.” 

Yet, those running baseball are suddenly fixated on their excel spreadsheets showing the average MLB fan is now in their mid to late 50’s, thereby sending up warning flares of potential viewership decline among younger generations.

The belief is that in a day and age where younger viewers – who live and breathe in a hyper-fast tech world dominated by information just a click away – do not have the attention span for the leisurely nature of baseball and, therefore, the game must not only be sped up, but reduced significantly in run time.

Entertainment now moves at a much faster pace than ever before, and major league baseball has determined that their F-14 product cannot compete against fifth-generation competition, and all the aging Maverick’s in the world won’t save the day.   

Repose vs. youthful fan hastiness.  While three-hour contests are fine in the NFL and NHL, baseball no longer can stomach it.  As a result, the 2023 season will now see a 15-second pitch clock that extends to 20 seconds with runners on base.  Any pitcher who does not start his windup before the clock hits zero is charged with a ball. Any batter who is not in the box ready to hit with eight seconds remaining (signaled by the hitter looking at the pitcher) is penalized with a strike.  

What played out over spring training is exactly what MLB hoped would occur.  The lag time in-between pitches was essentially abolished, and games were routinely finished in two and a half hours or less.  All of which reportedly thrilled the suits at MLB headquarters.

Clinking champagne glasses could be heard from New York to Seattle as Rob Manfred and his staff toasted what they envisioned as changes to the game that would magically draw young professionals away from Coachella and, instead, to major league ballparks and TV broadcasts. 

However, while Manfred and Co. were patting themselves on their backs for mission accomplished, actual games were fraught with pitchers and hitters visibly rushed, and game sequences and outcomes decided not by the actual performance, but by the semantics of time management. 

Balls and strikes being called with never a pitch even thrown.  Plays on the field nullified. Games ending due to time violations.

Perhaps even worse, however, the implementation of the pitch clock has removed the mental chess match that often occurs between pitcher and hitter.  Gone is “the game within the game” that has made baseball so unique throughout it’s history.

No longer is there enough time for pitchers and hitters to engage in mind games such as shaking off a long string of catcher signals, or stepping out of the batter’s box at the last moment, in order to try and “ice” the other player and gain the mental edge. 

Rather, it’s pitch ball, receive ball back, pitch ball again.  Wash, rinse, repeat.   

Yes, this tango can contribute to the increase of overall game length. But do fans *actually* care?  Does anyone even remember that Game 5 of the 1995 American League Divisional Series lasted over four hours? 

Or is all that one remembers is the battle between Edgar Martinez and Jack McDowell, and “The Double” by Martinez that propelled the Mariners past the New York Yankees and into the American League Championship Series?

I mean, could one fathom a pitch clock in play during Kirk Gibson’s Roy Hobbs-esque performance against Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series?

As the recent World Baseball Classic showed, it’s all about the performance and excitement on the field that draws fans of all ages.  Not how quickly the game can be completed.  

Fans who want constant movement and non-stop action will gravitate towards the NBA. Fans drawn to violence will find their way to the NFL and NHL.  However, unlike those sports, baseball is, and always has been, a different breed of entertainment. 

As Abbey theorized over 30 years ago, baseball is a game you watch, in part, for the slower pace.  The sport you can attend while simultaneously working on one’s tan while enjoying an ice cold beer. The game you have running in the background while cooking, working in the yard, or cleaning the house. 

Of course, the irony (and humor) in all of this is the fact that MLB is essentially fighting against its own natural progress.  A major contributing factor to the game’s increased run time is due in large part to the advent of technology-driven advanced metrics that has shaped strategy and performance.   

Here, advanced data has shown, for example, that taking a few extra seconds between each pitch has been proven to be advantageous for both pitcher and hitter performance.  Additionally, strategies such as seeing more pitches, running up pitch counts, and no longer pitching to contact are just some of the tactics that have become central components to today’s game strategy, all of which have increased game length.

All of this is not to say there isn’t a place for the pitch clock in today’s game.  There is. But rather than use it as a tool that creates reasonable rules to prevent unreasonable delay, it is being deployed as a vehicle to speed up and condense professional baseball, essentially turning it into a live version of “MLB The Show 23.”

Instead of reinventing the game into something it’s never been, perhaps those responsible for running baseball should implement changes that embrace and celebrate the game’s long historic allure of being an escape from the hustle and stress of every day life?

And maybe, just maybe, Manfred and his band of merry workers should throw some vinyl on the turntable, pour themselves a glass or red, and realize that analog is, sometimes, simply better than digital.

Seattle Mariners 2023 Offseason Plan

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The only thing that could have gone better for the Mariners in 2022 was figuring out a way to defeat the Houston Astros in the American League Divisional Series playoffs. And let’s be real, the challenge was figuring out how to beat Yordan Alvarez. Outside of that one gigantic slugging unsolved mystery, the season couldn’t have been scripted any better.

The Mariners finally ended the longest active playoff drought among the four major North American sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA NHL) that had been dogging them since 2001. And in doing so they captured the attention (and hearts?) of fans nationwide. From the play of their charismatic rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez; to stringing together a 14-win streak that catapulted the team from 10 games below .500 in late June to 18 game above .500 at seasons end; to sweeping the Blue Jays out of the playoffs in the 3-game Wild Card series…the Mariners took their faithful on the type of ride last experienced in 1995. 

Heading into the offseason, the Mariners will be focused on closing the gap with their AL West champion rivals, who finished 16 games ahead of them in the standings and swept them in the ALDS en route to winning their second World Series title in the past six seasons. To help accomplish that feat, the Mariners will need to lengthen their lineup and add another high leverage arm, specifically a left-hander.  As was exposed during the playoffs, the Mariners far too often struggled to manufacture runs from the bottom half of their lineup which, in turn, caused the top part of their order to rely too heavily on the long ball.  And not having that go-to lefty in their stable of hard throwing arms to come in and face someone in a high leverage moment like, oh, say…Alvarez in the 9th?  Yeah.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2023 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Sign OF Brandon Nimmo to a 5 year/$120M contract

The M’s need to add offense and corner outfield is one place they can do that. While Aaron Judge is available and would look marvelous roaming the T-Mobile outfield grass, the idea of the Mariners adding another $300M+ contract to their payroll is simply not going to happen. Not when the M’s will surely be looking to lock up several more of their notable young players like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Ty France.   

As great as Judge is, Brandon Nimmo arguably represents the type of hitter the M’s value and need most: patient and disciplined, high on-base abilities, and good bat-to-ball skills.  Yes, Nimmo isn’t going to provide the kind of power someone like Judge will but the Mariners already have power with the likes of Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Julio, and even France. Rather, Nimmo’s value for the Mariners is his ability to put the ball in play and get on base (.384 OBP average over the past three seasons), a component sorely lacking from the team’s offense last year.  In 2022, Nimmo slashed .274/.367/.433, which was considered a “down” year for him.  Over the prior two seasons, Nimmo averaged a .288/.402/.454.  Again, that’s a .402 on base average! His 5.4 fWAR would have led the team, and Nimmo’s 134 wRC+ would have been just below Julio’s 146. As a bonus, Nimmo is also a solid defender who can play all three outfield positions. 

Sign LHP Andrew Chafin to a 2 year/$20M contract

The Mariners boasted one of the best bullpens in the American League last season, but the one weakness within their formidable cache of arms was the absence of a reliable left-handed reliever. Anthony Misiewicz started the year as the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, but was eventually demoted to the minors and then traded to Kansas City for cash. Tommy Milone and Ryan Borucki each tried to fill the void but neither were successful. The Mariners acquired Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline – who was coming off the IL for a torn flexor tendon – hoping he could transition from starter to reliever.  Although Boyd showed better by posting a 1.35 ERA and 3.19 FIP, he was used sparingly (trust? health?) by manager Scott Servais.      

With Boyd now a free agent and reportedly looking for a rotation job, the Mariners find themselves again seeking a proven left-hander for their pen.  Veteran Andrew Chafin has been one of the better left-handed relievers throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, Chafin has averaged a 2.59 ERA and 3.14 FIP including a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP with the Tigers last year. Chafin doesn’t have the same velocity (91-92 mph) as fellow free agent lefty Taylor Rogers (95-96 mph) so it’s possible the Mariners could choose to go after the better power arm. But Chafin’s ability to tunnel his sinker/slider combo results in missing bats (87th percentile) and limiting hard contact (81st percentile). Additionally, Chafin keeps the ball on the ground where he produced a 51.3% ground ball rate in 2022 and has a 50.9% ground ball rate for his career.  Perhaps most important, Chafin rocks an epic 80’s mustache.  Done deal.       

Trade RHP Chris Flexen, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Emerson Hancock, and SS Michael Arroyo to the Pirates for OF Bryan Reynolds

Since the end of the season, the Mariners and Mitch Haniger have publicly stated their mutual desire to work out a new contract to keep the veteran outfielder in Seattle for the 2023 season and beyond. However, statements by President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto indicating Haniger has “earned the right” to explore free agency throws into question whether the right fielder will be returning. One would think that if the mutual interest was as strong as both sides have presented it to be, then a deal would have been completed by now.  Or, at the least, there would be reports that the two sides were working on a new agreement. However, it appears both sides are exploring other options first.

Should Haniger sign elsewhere, a second outfielder will need to be acquired, and the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds should be near the top of the list. The Mariners looked into trading for Reynolds at the 2021 trade deadline but those talks quickly ended after the Pirates insisted on Julio being included in any potential deal. Reynolds’ 2022 numbers were not quite at the level of last season when he produced a .912 OPS and was worth 6.1 fWAR. But they were still solid ( 807 OPS, 2.9 fWAR) and with three seasons of team control left, the price will still be high to acquire the outfielder’s services.

With the Pirates reportedly seeking starting pitching help, the Mariners have the rotation pieces that should be able to meet that need: Chris Flexen and Emerson Hancock. Flexen is a solid mid-rotation starter who is durable, eats innings, and can immediately slot into the starting rotation. Since signing with Seattle two seasons ago, Flexen has averaged a 3.66 ERA and 4.15 FIP.  

Hancock, the Mariners No. 2 organizational prospect as well as top pitching prospect, possesses top-of-the rotation stuff. Hancock was the 6th player chosen in the 2020 draft and entered 2021 as the No. 57 ranked prospect in all of baseball. Early arm issues limited Hancock to just 12 games in 2021 causing him to fall off several top prospect lists. However, with those arm issues resolved in 2022, Hancock was back to form and posted a 3.75 ERA in 21 games at Class AA. Hancock is projected to join the Mariners rotation some time in 2023.  

In addition to Flexen and Hancock, the Mariners include outfielder Jarred Kelenic, the former No. 4 MLB prospect. Kelenic has yet to establish himself at the MLB level, but at the young age of 23 and just 147 MLB games under his belt, the Mariners believe it is just a matter of needing a bit more time at the MLB level before Kelenic starts to fulfill his lofty projections.  Kelenic could turn the corner next season, or it may not be until 2024. Although the Mariners still believe in Kelenic, the team is firmly in “win-now” mode and one has to question how long the organization can afford to wait? Finishing at 62-100 last season, the Pirates are still a few seasons away from being playoff contenders. Kelenic would be able to step right into the everyday lineup – joining fellow youngsters Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Calvin Mitchel – and continue his development while not being faced with the pressure of having to produce immediately.

Lastly, the Mariners include their No. 12 organizational prospect, Michael Arroyo, who was one of the top shortstops of this past international signing period. Arroyo was considered one of the more advanced pure hitters of his class and projects as a future five-tool player with above average power and hit skills. The Mariners thought highly enough of Arroyo to sign him for $1.3M and in his first taste of professional ball, the 17-year old did not disappoint, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, 2 triples and 4 home runs in the Dominican Summer League.   

Trade RHP Diego Castillo and OF Jesse Winker to the New York Yankees for 2B Gleyber Torres and RHP Randy Vasquez

With Adam Frazier leaving as a free agent, second base becomes another position where the Mariners can upgrade offensively. While much speculation has been about the Mariners signing Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaert or Dansby Swanson to play shortstop and then moving JP Crawford to 2B, the reality is that the Mariners are unlikely to offer the required 7 to 9 year contract to land any of the four aforementioned players.  Rather, the Mariners will look to acquire a second baseman from a team that has a surplus at that position.  One of those teams is the New York Yankees who have Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and top prospect Oswald Peraza all capable of playing second base. 

Torres has yet to live up to the high expectations that made him the No. 6 MLB prospect entering 2018. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2019 with a .278/.337/.535 and 38 home runs, causing many to believe he was the next great Yankees superstar.  But since then, Torres has averaged a .256/.325/.406 and just 12 home runs. Most of the issues and frustrations regarding Torres since that breakout season have revolved around swing and miss tendencies resulting in high strikeouts and low walks. For all his talent and ability, Torres just hasn’t been able to find consistency with the bat. Reportedly, the Yankees were prepared to move on from Torres at last year’s trade deadline with a deal in place to acquire Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. For whatever reason, the Yankees nixed the deal at the last moment.

Despite the concerns, however, there is still much to like about Torres.  First is the .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs he produced in 2022, which would represent a significant upgrade over the .238/.301/.311 and three home runs the Mariners received from Adam Frazier. Additionally, Torres showed significant improvement in hitting the ball hard last season – evidenced by an average exit velocity, hard hit%, and barrel% that ranked in the 75th percentile or better. Exit velocity has become the golden measurement in today’s game when projecting future outcomes, and Torres’ average exit velocity last season was 90.4 mph which was above the major league average. Lastly, Torres produced a 4.1 UZR and 9 defensive runs saved playing the key stone last year.  With the shift going away in 2023, the Mariners have stated a priority on acquiring a second baseman who has the range and defensive chops of a shortstop. Torres, whose natural position is shortstop, seemingly fits that requirement. 

The Mariners also receive right-handed pitcher Randy Vazquez, New York’s No. 14 organizational prospect. Projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, Vasquez possesses a mid-90’s fastball along with a curveball whose high spin rate results in wicked drop. He also utilizes a lower arm slot that results in above average vertical break. That latter quality is something the Mariners would seemingly love to get their hands on and tinker with, much like how they did with Paul Sewald where they lowered his arm slot to increase his vertical approach angle. Vasquez lacks experience pitching in the upper minors, having logged just 21.1 innings at Class AA. But the Mariners have the depth to bring along Vasquez as they did with Matt Brash last year – spending the first few months in the minors transitioning him to a reliever, and then moving him up into their bullpen by mid-season.

With the Yankees looking to bolster their bullpen while also seeking a left fielder, the Mariners part with Diego Castillo and Jesse Winker.  Castillo still possesses above average stuff, and produced solid numbers last season with a 3.64 ERA and 3.68 FIP over 59 appearances. However, Castillo never seemed to fully settle in with the Mariners “closer by committee” scheme where the team deployed their high leverage relievers anywhere from the 7th to 9th innings depending on matchups. Every so often, Castillo struggled in situations where the game was not necessarily on the line. A switch back to a more defined 8th inning setup and/or 9th inning closer role would arguably be a better fit for Castillo. 

One of the biggest disappointments for the Mariners last season was Jesse Winker’s sudden drop in offense. Winker still got on base (.344 OBP) and showed high plate discipline (15.4% walk rate), but he struggled to drive the ball. It was a highly unexpected and perplexing turn of events for a player who came to Seattle as a career .288/.385/.504 hitter. The Mariners recently disclosed Winker dealt with neck and knee injuries throughout the season which may explain the sudden fall in production. Having already undergone minor surgeries to address both issues, the Mariners believe Winker’s bat will rebound next year. If that belief holds true, then moving on from Winker may not be the wisest move for a team needing more offense.  However, with the spacious Seattle outfield amplifying Winker’s defensive shortcomings last year, the Mariners are looking to improve their left field defense and have stated Winker will see the majority of time at designated hitter, which is counter to the team’s preference of not carrying a full-time designated hitter.  With Yankee Stadium being the fifth-smallest outfield in all of baseball, Winker’s defensive flaws would not be as big of a factor.   

Trade RHP Prelander Berroa and C Luis Torrens to the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Jake McCarthy

With Jarred Kelenic included in the trade for Bryan Reynolds, the Mariners will need to determine who their fourth outfielder will be. They could stay in-house with Taylor Trammell who has all the tools but is still trying to put it all together at the MLB level.  Another option is Jake McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks who finds himself in a log jam of young talented outfielders.  Despite not having the same prospect pedigree as others within the Arizona farm system, McCarthy produced an encouraging .283/.342/.427, eight home runs, and 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts in his first extended stint at the MLB level. Despite that, though, the Diamondback will presumably head into 2023 with top prospect Corbin Carroll joining former top prospects Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho in the Arizona outfield. That would leave McCarthy fighting for playing time with another former top prospect, Pavin Smith. 

With the Diamondbacks seeking bullpen help in addition to a backup catcher, the Mariners alleviate the outfield bottleneck by sending pitcher Prelander Berroa and catcher Luis Torrens to Arizona for McCarthy.  Across three levels in 2022 that ended in Class AA, Berroa posted a 2.86 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings as a starter. His fastball sits mid-90s and touches 99, along with a plus slider.  Like many young starting pitchers, Berroa needs to develop a reliable third pitch before landing in a MLB rotation. But his fastball/slider arsenal is considered major league ready. Berroa would probably need a bit of time to transition from starting pitcher to reliever, but by mid-season he could be a highly effective arm out of the Diamondbacks bullpen.   

Torrens has logged 181 games primarily as the team’s backup catcher over the past few seasons, but with veteran Tom Murphy expected back in 2023 after missing most of last season to injury, Torrens appears to not have a roster spot for 2023. The Mariners like Torrens’ potential with the bat, and with his defense continuing to improve they could carry three catchers as they have in the past.  But with Torrens out of minor league options, the smarter move would be to move Torrens in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Wrap

The Mariners enter the offseason with much of the same goals as last year: find a way to lengthen the lineup. The Mariners thought they had accomplished that by adding Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, but underperformance by Frazier and Winker, and yet another injury to Haniger, that cost him most of the season, left the offense far too reliant on the top half of the lineup to score runs.

With Brandon Nimmo and Bryan Reynolds added to the outfield, and Gleyber Torres sliding in at second base, the Mariners add three players who combined for 11 fWAR last season, an 8.7 fWAR upgrade over the three players they will be replacing in Haniger, Winker and Frazier.  Additionally, the Mariners significantly boost their on base abilities where Nimmo, Reynolds and Torres averaged a combined .340 OBP in 2022.  Nimmo and Reynolds could also be penciled into the top two spots of the lineup thereby pushing both Julio and France down in the order where they would have more opportunities to drive in runs.

The Mariners will go with the same five starting pitchers they ended the season with last year.  In a bit of an aberration, the Mariners were able to get through the entire season without a starting pitcher going down with injury.  That occurrence should not be counted on this year, and the team will turn to highly regarded prospects Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller in case of injury. The Mariners will also have the option of moving Matt Brash back into the rotation if that need presents itself.

While the bullpen was again a huge reason for the team’s success, the Mariners lacked a steadfast left-handed reliever.  The addition Andrew Chafin gives the team that proven high-leverage arm from the left side.  Randy Vasquez presents depth and a possible mid-season boost much like how Brash did last year.  An argument could be made that one more reliever needs to be added, especially with the trading away of Diego Castillo. But reports are that the Mariners are super high on Isaiah Campbell’s mid-season transition from starter to reliever last year, where after moving to the bullpen Campbell flashed a 95 to 98 mph fastball and an elite slider resulting in a 1.61 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 28 relief innings.  Look for Campbell to play a major role in the Mariners bullpen in 2023.

Seattle Mariners 2022 Preview, Offseason Plan

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The Mariners head into the offseason after a Rocky-esque 2021 that saw the young title wannabe’s go the distance and nearly pull off the unthinkable. However, the team could do nothing but watch as their dream of ending a 19-year playoff drought fell short on the last day of the season as the Boston Red Sox clinched the final Wild Card berth with a victory over the Washington Nationals.

After a dramatic 12-4 run to close out the season, the Mariners near playoff miss created a buzz around the greater Puget Sound last felt since 1995. Shortly after the season concluded, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto added to the excitement by declaring the team’s rebuild had turned a corner and ownership would increase payroll “substantially” for 2022. 

If that wasn’t enough, Mitch Haniger “turned it up to eleven” with his issuance of a letter in The Players’ Tribune indicating he and his teammates were not only going to “get after it” this offseason in preparation for the 2022 season, but would also be “coming for one of those playoff spots – and more.” Haniger doubled down on the news of an increased payroll by calling for Dipoto and his front office to “go all-in” and “make some impact moves” in order to “put this group over the top.”

After three years of rebuilding, Dipoto has now sounded the bell, signaling it is time to “Win!” with Haniger channeling his inner Mickey with a “What are we waiting for?!”

Of course, the question now looming over T-Mobile Park is how much money constitutes a substantial increase?  And what does that mean in terms of players sought and acquired, especially if Dipoto heeds Haniger’s advice and looks to add impact? 

The Mariners last substantial impact signing occurred in 2013 when former GM Jack Zduriencik signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year/$240M free agent contract. Nelson Cruz, who was signed the following year, was certainly an impact player. But his 4 year/$57M contract was far more palatable than Cano’s contract.  

Dipoto has never been a fan of long-term “mega” contracts due the nature of those type of deals: paying a player a large sum of money well beyond their prime years.  As GM of the Angels, Dipoto reportedly did share in owner Arte Moreno’s insistence of signing Albert Pujols at any cost, resulting in a 10 year/$254M contract to secure the services of the star slugger. In addition, one of Dipoto’s top priorities when initiating the Mariners “step back” plan was to get out from under the remaining five years of the Cano deal.  

Given that precedent, it would seem unlikely that Dipoto shows much interest in dishing out a 10-year deal for someone like Carlos Correa who is considered the top free agent on the market.

When describing the type of offensive players the Mariners may target this offseason, manager Scott Servais provided some insight: 

“I would like to see us add a couple of players. I don’t think it’s just one big fish, so to speak; I think it’s a couple of guys to balance out the lineup, create some length of the lineup. And I think some help in the starting rotation is key.”

Dipoto also dropped a few hints as to how the Mariners may proceed when it comes to the rotation: 

“We don’t naturally want to block the young guys from having an opportunity.  But I say that, and this year is a great example of don’t plan on five guys running through the season without hitting a bump in the road, either from an effectiveness or an injury perspective. So we’re going to go out, and we’re going to see if we can stabilize or add to our starting rotation.”

Adding a couple productive hitters would be the most obvious area of need for a Mariners offense that finished near the bottom of baseball with a slash line of .226/.303/.385, .688 OPS, and a 93 wRC+.  

And with mid-season acquisition Tyler Anderson a free agent, and both the Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi declining their respective options thereby casting Kikuchi off into free agency, adding at least one, but preferably two, starting pitchers should also be near the top of the shopping list.  

On the flip side, the Mariners bullpen should be in fine shape as it was one of baseball’s best in 2021, and will see youngster Andres Munoz and veteran closer Brian Giles return from injury and join the team’s cache of hard throwing arms in 2022.  An argument exists for another left-handed reliever to either join or replace incumbent southpaw Anthony Misiewicz, although the Mariners could look within the organization for that addition.   

With the Mariners declining Kyle Seager’s $20M option, and Kikuchi entering the free agent market, the Mariners project to roll into the offseason with roughly $22M committed to payroll (including pre-arbitration and arbitration eligible players).   That payroll figure should open up many interesting options for a team that has said it will explore any and all available avenues to improve the team for 2022 and beyond.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2022 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade INF/OF Dylan Moore and RHP Devin Sweet for 3B Josh Donaldson, LHP Taylor Rogers, and $15M.

Maybe the biggest question among Mariners fans has been whether the team should pick up Kyle Seager’s option for 2022?  On one hand, Seager produced career highs in homeruns (35), RBI (101) and provided his usual solid defense with a +3.7 UZR.  As a kicker, Seager also hit a robust .308/.372/.643 with runners in scoring position.  

On the other hand, Seager produced one of the worst overall offensive outputs in his career with a .212/.285/.438 and a 99 wRC+.  A bit more worrisome is the 34-year old struck out a career high 24% of the time, and his contact rate dip to a career low 72.4%, marking the first time in Seager’s career that his ability to make contact fell below the MLB average. 

This past week, the Mariners made it official they would not be retaining Seager’s services for one more season, electing instead to allow the long-time Mariner to seek employment elsewhere as a free agent.   

The move signals that the front office believes there are better options available at third base to invest $20M into.  But who?

The most obvious fit is Kris Bryant who the Mariners reportedly tried to acquire at the trade deadline. Bryant could not only take over at third base, but he has also added left and center field to his defensive resume.  Eduardo Escobar is another option.  Escobar does not come with the same offensive pop as Bryant, but he would cost less and has the ability to play second base as well.   A few of the marque shortstops, such as Correa, Trevor Story or Marcus Semein, have all mentioned at one point they would be willing to move to third base, so the Mariners could look into those options as well. 

While all of the aforementioned would upgrade the hot corner, the Mariners best option may be to acquire Josh Donaldson from the Minnesota Twins.

Granted, this could be a bit of a risky move for the Mariners due to the money still owed to the veteran third baseman ($51.5M over the next two years) along with Donaldson’s age (35) and injury history.  

The risk, however, could pay off big as the former MVP slashed a .247/.352/.475, hit 26 home runs, and produced a 124 wRC+ in 135 games in 2021.  Donaldson also finished in the 92nd percentile or better in exit velocity, hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, walk rate, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage.   

If the Mariners believe Donaldson can continue to stay healthy – as he mostly did this past season – Donaldson would be a huge offensive presence in the middle of the lineup, yet would cost a fraction of what it would take to land one of the available free agents who could produce similar offensive numbers.

And with Donaldson under contract for two more years, he would serve as a perfect stop gap until top prospect Noelvi Marte arrives sometime in 2023.   

In addition to Donaldson, the Mariners also snag lefty reliever Taylor Rogers who is due to earn $6.7M in his final year of arbitration. Rogers missed the second half last year due to a finger injury on his throwing hand, but he was quite effective prior to that, producing a 3.35 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 13.2 K/9, and limiting opposing batters to a .247/.280/.370 over 40 appearances.  The addition of Rogers would give the Mariners a sorely needed second lefty option, and serve as an upgrade over Anthony Misiewisz who produced so-so results with a 4.61 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.7 K/9, and a .280/.328/.431 against.

In exchange for Donaldson, Rogers, and a kicker of $15M in salary relief, the Mariners send the Twins infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore and minor league pitching prospect Devin Sweet. 

Moore, 29, has played every position other than pitcher and catcher for the Mariners. He has teased with his speed/power combo potential, with the Mariners finally believing Moore was tapping into that promise in 2020 when he slashed a .255/.358/.496.  But after being given the starting gig at second base for 2021, Moore could not capitalize on the opportunity as he posted a .181/.276/.334 and eventually lost his job to mid-season acquisition Abraham Toro.

While Moore can provide immediate utility, the main attraction for the Twins is Devin Sweet. With a fastball that continues to increase in velocity – currently sitting in the 93-95 mph range – along with a wipeout changeup, the Twins add an intriguing young arm who has turned heads of late as both a starter and reliever.  In 2019, Sweet posted a 2.26 ERA over 15 starts at Class A.  In 2021, Sweet was promoted to Class AA where as a reliever, Sweet posted a 0.63 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 12 relief appearances.  

Trade OF Kyle Lewis and RP Casey Sadler for 2B/OF Whit Merrifield.

If there is one thing that may be more reliable in Kansas City than finding really good barbeque, it is hearing the Royals announce each season that they will not trade Whit Merrifield.  Yet, every season, Merrifield’s name comes up in trade discussions.

This past trade deadline saw, again, Merrifield’s name spun through the rumor mill and, most notably, connected to the Mariners.  Days before the trade deadline were reports indicating the Mariners were “making a push” to acquire the versatile infielder/outfielder.  However, the trade deadline passed with no deal struck between the two teams.

The 2021 all-star finished the season batting .277/.317/.395 with 10 homeruns and 40 stolen bases.  In the field, Merrifield saw time at second base and both corner outfield positions where he produced solid defensive marks at three positions, and where he was named a gold glove finalist at second base.   

The Mariners attraction to Merrifield is understandable.  The life-long Royal is under contract for two more seasons, and brings a skill set valued by Dipoto and his front office: good bat-to-ball skills, ability to hit to all fields, speed, and defensive versatility.  And while the Mariners like the upside of Abraham Toro, who they acquired at the trade deadline, Merrifield would offer a clear upgrade at second base while also improving the team’s bench options as Toro would move into a reserve role.  The Mariners could also utilize Merrifield in either corner outfield position, thereby affording the team a good deal of lineup flexibility.

The cost to pry Merrifield away from Kansas City would be fairly steep.  The Royals are still in a win-now mode, so they will presumably want MLB ready or near ready players in return. 

To accommodate this need, the Mariners offer up former top prospect and 2020 Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis as the centerpiece.  Lewis’ quick and powerful bat has already resulted in a .258/.343/.450 (.792 OPS) and 22 home runs in just 464 plate appearances over parts of three seasons.

If this were 2019 or 2020, Lewis would surely be off limits for the Mariners.  But last season’s injury to Lewis’ knee could change that outlook in the eyes of the Mariners.  While Lewis expects to be healthy and ready for the 2022 season, it is unknown how much time Lewis can be expected to play in the field.  Most see Lewis’ days in centerfield now over, with his likely destination to be in a corner outfield position with the occasional game in center.   At worst, Lewis is a designated hitter who can play an occasional outfield.  Lewis most likely will fall somewhere in between, but where that is cannot be known for sure until he is back out on the field playing regularly.      

With Ken Giles and Andres Munoz expected to join the bullpen after spending last season rehabbing from injury, the Mariners are able to deal from an area of strength by including reliever Casey Sadler in the package for Merrifield.  Relying on a 94 mph cutter and one of the better curveballs in the league, Sadler had a breakout 2021 season where he appeared in 40 games and posted a 0.67 ERA/2.48 FIP and a 0.719 WHIP, including a franchise record 29 consecutive scoreless appearances to close out the season. 

It could be possible that the Royals may want a bit more in return, in which case the Mariners could also throw in someone like minor league reliever Will Vest who has an electric arm and some experience pitching at the MLB level.  But it’s difficult to imagine that acquiring two players who could immediately slot into the Royals’ lineup and produce, and who are under team control for three (Sadler) and four (Lewis) more years wouldn’t be enough to get the deal done. 

Sign SP Max Scherzer to a 3 year/$125M contract.

In an interview with 710 ESPN last September, MLB analyst Jeff Passan offered his take on what the Mariners should do to push them to being a playoff team in 2022:

“Listen, I don’t think they’re going to do this, but is there a better person than Max Scherzer for this team (the Mariners) right now?”

Passon continued: 

“If you want to build, to me there’s no better guy to build around than Max Scherzer at this point. You’re not going to be hemmed into a super long-term deal. Yeah, you’re going to have to pay $40 something million dollars a year, which is hefty, but can you imagine a rotation that starts with Scherzer and goes to (Chris) Flexen and continues with Marco Gonzales and then have Logan Gilbert and then you can slowly bring along (George) Kirby and (Emerson) Hancock or whoever else there is? I don’t know, man, I love the idea, and you have the money to go out and do it.”

You know what, Jeff?  We love the idea too.

The free agent starting pitching market offers a handful of quality rotation arms such as Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, and Eduardo Rodriguez.  However, let’s cut right to the chase.  None are aces.  None are stoppers. 

Conversely, Scherzer is.

Even at age 37, Scherzer has shown no signs of slowing down.  He still sits mid 90’s with his fastball, and is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award (his fourth) after posting a 15-4 record, a 2.46 ERA/2.97 FIP, and a 0.864 WHIP. 

The Mariners have not had that kind of pitcher leading their starting staff since the days of Randy Johnson.  And if Scherzer is on the same path as the Big Unit was at this same stage of his career, then one can expect Scherzer to continue putting up Cy Young caliber for several more years.

Yes, Scherzer will be incredibly pricey.  But he will not command the length of contract that other free agent pitchers will.  And let’s be real – if you have $125M to spend on a pitcher, would you rather give that to Scherzer over 3 years or someone like Gausman over 6 years?  Yeah, us too.  

Sign INF/OF Chris Taylor to a 4 year/$60M deal.

After Kyle Lewis was lost for the year with a knee injury, the Mariners went primarily with an outfield of Haniger in right, Jarred Kelenic in center, and a Jake Fraley/Dylan Moore/Jake Bauers/Shed Long/Jose Marmolejos rotation in left.  That merry-go-round in left field resulted in an offensive output of ugly proportions: .191/.285/.333 (.617 OPS) and a 76 wRC+.  

If the Mariners are serious about the playoffs in 2022, they will have to do something to address that malaise.  

Their approach in doing so will require working around the arrival of top prospect Julio Rodriguez who is expected to make his debut sometime around midseason, and will surely be given a good deal of playing time.

With the potential of Rodriguez joining the outfield mix at some point during the season, acquiring an outfielder with positional flexibility would make a great deal of sense.  And who better than the player Dipoto traded away and calls “the worst deal I’ve ever made.”

Last season Taylor slashed .254/.344/.438 (.782 OPS) and hit 20 home runs while covering six positions for the Dodgers: second base, shortstop, third base, and all three outfield positions.   That production and versatility would be vital as it would allow the Mariners to use Taylor at a number of positions both in the outfield and the infield.

Sign INF/OF Leury Garcia to a 2 year/$10M deal.

With Moore traded to the Twins, the Mariners will need to find his utility replacement.  And even if Moore were not traded to the Twins, the Mariners should find his utility replacement. 

While most of the attention this offseason will be drawn towards finding upgrades for the starting lineup, the Mariners would be amiss if they failed to give their bench a little love as well.  Besides Moore, the Mariners bench last season comprised some combination of Sam Haggerty (.186/.247/.291), Donovan Walton (.206/.254/.365), Bauers (.220/.297/.275) and Marmolejos (.160/.262/.311). 

With a far from stellar collection of reserves to pick from, Mariners treat themselves to the versatile Garcia, 30, who hit .267/.335/.376 in 126 games last year for the White Sox while being penciled in at every position except first base, catcher and pitcher.  

 Resign Tyler Anderson to a 2 year/$12M deal

The Mariners picked up Tyler Anderson at the trade deadline to help stabilize the back end of their rotation after Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield were lost for the season with injuries.  Using a spasmodic motion and a variety of different arm angles, Anderson lived up to expectations and more through his first 10 starts, producing a 3.38 ERA/3.92 FIP.  However, the wheels would then come off as Anderson allowed 13 earned runs over his final three turns through the rotation. That dreadful number can be mitigated by the fact that the majority of those runs came in one outing against the Angels where Anderson surrendered 9 earned runs over 2.0 innings. Absent that one outing, Anderson posted a solid 3.68 ERA for the Mariners.

There isn’t much upside (or mystery) when it comes Anderson.  He is who he is: a savvy veteran pitcher who does not miss many bats, but does not walk a lot of people, and has the ability to keep his team in a game for five to six innings each time out.  For any team looking to fill out the back end of their rotation, Anderson is that perfect fit. And with Servais indicating he would like Anderson to come back, and Anderson stating he would like to return, it seems like the stars are aligned on this one. 

The 26-Man

Infield:  1B:  Ty France; 2B Whit Merrifield; SS: JP Crawford; 3B Josh Donaldson; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Chris Taylor; CF Jarred Kelenic; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Luis Torrens

Bench: C Cal Raleigh; INF/OF Leury Garcia; OF Jake Fraley; INF Abraham Toro

Rotation: SP1 Max Scherzer; SP2 Marco Gonzales; SP3 Chris Flexen; SP4 Logan Gilbert; SP5 Tyler Anderson

Bullpen: LHP Taylor Rogers; LHP Anthony Misiewicz; RHP Erik Swanson; RHP Andres Munoz; RHP Drew Steckenrider; RHP Paul Sewald; RHP Diego Castillo; RHP Ken Giles

The Wrap

The goal for the 2022 season seems to be unanimous: find a way to lengthen the lineup. “Top heavy” would be an understatement when describing the Mariner’s batting lineup in 2021 where the majority of the team’s runs came by way of their first four hitters – Crawford, France, Seager, and Haniger.  In fact, outside of those four players, only one other Mariner with at least least 300 plate appearances tallied a 100 wRC+ or better (Luis Torrens).

If the Mariners intend to play meaningful games in October, then expanding their offensive attack will be a must.  Far too often last year did the Mariners have to wait for the top of the order to roll back around for there to be any chance at putting some runs on the scoreboard.  By adding Donaldson, Merrifield and Taylor, the Mariners do just that, allowing Servais to fill out a lineup card that will contain six proven run producers. And with the expected progression of Kelenic and perhaps even Torrens, the lineup has the potential to get even longer.  

In addition, Taylor, Merrifield, and Garcia will provide the Mariners a great deal of positional flexibility.  Having a multitude of players who can play several positions will not only provide the Mariners the advantage of being better able to mix and match their lineups, but also make more frequent in-game switches and be able to more easily cover positions when injuries occur.    On the pitching side of things, the Mariners return just three regular starters in Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, and Logan Gilbert, with the latter of the three being the only one who has the ceiling of a true top of the rotation starter. Expecting Gilbert to reach the ceiling on a consistent basis in 2022 may be a bit of a stretch. The addition of Scherzer adds a bona fide ace to the pitching staff while retaining Anderson shores up the back end of the rotation.  Scherzer and Anderson also create pitching depth as they allow the Mariners to start the year with Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield in Tacoma. A bullpen that was one of the best in baseball will return most all of their top arms from 2021. However – and with apologies to Hector Santiago and “rosin gate” – the one missing ingredient from the relief corp was a reliable second lefthander to pair with Misiewicz. The addition of Taylor Rogers fills that need.   

Seattle Mariners 2021 Preview, Offseason Plan

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The 2020 Mariners baseball campaign was intended to be one of major league development for the team’s young core.  The goal was to let the youth take the reins, absorb some bumps and bruises in the first half of the year, and then show improvement and competitive play in the second half.  A big part of that plan involved the anticipated arrivals of top prospects Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic who were expected to be called up from the minors at some point during the latter half of the season.

But with the COVID19 pandemic canceling the minor league season and reducing the regular MLB season to just 60 games, the Mariners’ young core were left with just one-third of a normal MLB season to prime themselves for the Mariners projected playoff window starting in 2021. In addition, the organization’s top prospects had to settle for a year of competing against each other through intrasquad games.   

That’s not to say the MLB season was a complete loss for a rebuilding team like the Mariners.

GM Jerry Dipoto’s crew finished the season with a 27-33 record which, by most people’s accounts, surpassed expectations. More encouraging was the fact that the Mariners went 16-14 over their final 30 games.     

Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.10 ERA/3.32 FIP) and Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA/3.17 FIP) anchored a starting rotation that ranked a respectable 15th in baseball in ERA (4.41) and FIP (4.29), and graded out as the 10th most valuable rotation overall with a 4.9 fWAR. 

The offense was not quite as effective, finishing 21st in baseball with a 5.4 fWAR.  But the strong play of Kyle Lewis (.262/.364/.437, AL Rookie of the Year Award winner), JP Crawford (255/.336/.338, Gold Glove Award winner), Dylan Moore (.255/.358/.496 playing seven different positions), and mid-season acquisition Ty France (.302/.362/.453) provided far more optimism than what the overall numbers indicated.

The bullpen, however, was a far different story. With a 6-13 record, 5.92 ERA, 5.81 FIP and -1.5 fWAR, the Mariners relief corps was one of the worst in baseball.

Dipoto has gone on record stating that the primary focus will be on upgrading his bullpen. Specifically, Dipoto will be seeking three to four relievers who will help address last season’s late game struggles.

In addition, Dipoto further stated the Mariners would continue to use a six-man rotation, signaling that a starting pitcher could be an offseason target.

Having reduced payroll significantly over the past two seasons, Dipoto and the Mariners will have plenty of money to spend. And with many teams looking to cut costs after being hit with revenue losses due to the shortened season, the Mariners could find themselves at a financial advantage this offseason when it comes to free agent spending.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2021 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Joe Kelly and IN/OF Zach McKinstry.

The Skinny: With Justin Turner a free agent, the Dodgers enter the offseason needing to find a third baseman.  Resigning Turner is still an option but, at age 36, his defense is not quite what it used to be, and injuries have become more of a concern.  Acquiring the younger Kyle Seager to play alongside his brother Corey may be the more attractive option.  Seager is due $33M over the next two seasons, but that may not be an issue given his above average defense and a .789 OPS averaged over the past two seasons.  However, with the understanding that money can always be a concern, Joe Kelly’s contract offsets the amount owed to Seager by roughly $13M, which would reduce Seager’s AAV to just $10M per year.

The Dodgers signed Kelly prior to the 2019 season to a 3 year/$21M deal, including a $12M option and $4M buyout for 2022, to serve as the team’s primary set-up man for closer Kenley Jensen. Kelly’s tenure with the Dodgers has not lived up to expectations as he posted a subpar 4.56 ERA in 2019 and spent five weeks on the injured list this past season with shoulder inflammation, as well as being suspended eight games (reduced to five) for throwing at Alex Bregman in July. Still, Kelly’s 24.4 K% and 10.4 K/9 during his time with the Dodgers would be a welcomed upgrade for a Mariners bullpen that ranked 28th in K% (20.2) and 26th in K/9 (8.29) in 2020.

Coming into 2020, Zach McKinstry was the Dodgers No. 18 rated prospect according to MLB Pipeline. McKinstry broke out in 2019 at the AA and AAA levels where he combined to slash .300/.366/.516 with 19 homeruns. That showing helped prompt a call up this past September where he slashed .286/.286/.428 in four games. McKinstry is often likened to Chris Taylor – someone who can play multiple positions with solid defense and has above average bat-to-ball skills. McKinstry’s versatility could see him challenge for time at second or third base, and/or provide depth at shortstop and in the outfield.  

Sign SP Marcus Stroman to a 4 year/ $64M deal.

The Skinny: Adding a frontline starting pitcher as one of the final pieces to the “step-back” would occur, ideally, after the 2021 season where the Mariners would have a better idea about the futures of Justin Dunn, Nick Marjevicius, Ljay Newsome, and Logan Gilbert.  However, the 2021 class of free agent starting pitchers does not leave much to be desired. There’s Noah Syndergaard, and then a handful of past-their-prime starters in Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke, to name a few. Of course, there still may be one or even two decent years left in one of those aforementioned names.  But if one is looking to add a front line pitcher in the next year or so who is still in their prime, this offseason may be the time to do that.

Stroman sat out the 2020 season due to COVID19 concerns but has always been one of the better starting pitchers throughout his career.  Over the past three seasons, Stroman has averaged a 3.65 ERA and 3.83 FIP.  In 2019 Stroman produced a 3.22 ERA/3.72 FIP across 32 starts and 184.1 innings for Blue Jays and Mets.  Stroman would slide right in between left-handers Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield as the Mariners No. 2 starter.

Sign RP Trevor May to a 3 year/$16M deal.

The Skinny: Among all the relievers available on the free agent market, Trevor May is probably the one guy who checks the most boxes for Dipoto and the Mariners.  A power pitcher who touches upper 90’s with good command, May’s strikeout rates (top 2%), whiff rates (top 1%) spin rates (top 25%) and velocity (top 11%) are among the best in baseball and, therefore, should draw a great deal interest from Dipoto and his analytics-driven team.   

While May does have a tendency to give up the long ball due to an exit velocity and barrel% not near as shiny as his missed bats rates, he has been highly effective since making the switch from starting pitcher to full-time reliever in 2016.  Since that time, May has produced a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP and 12.3 K/9.  This past season, May produced a 3.86 ERA/3.62 FIP and 14.7 K/9. 

Sign OF Robbie Grossman to a 1 year/$4M deal

The Skinny: By the end of June, the Mariners expect to be running out a starting outfield of Kelenic, Lewis, and Mitch Haniger. However, the question needing to be answered by the start of the season is who will be holding down left field until Kelenic is ready?

A switch hitter, Grossman has consistently been one of the more underrated players in the game. Grossman is not going to challenge for any homerun or batting titles, but he will do what he has done throughout his career: get on base.  Since 2016, Grossman has averaged a .257/.359/.395.  In 2020 alone, he slashed a .241/.344/.482.  Grossman can play all three outfield positions, but is best suited in the corners where he provides average to above-average defense.  

The 26-Man

Infield: 1B Evan White; 2B Dylan Moore; SS JP Crawford; 3B Ty France; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Robbie Grossman; CF Kyle Lewis; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Jake Fraley

Bench: C Luis Torrens; IN/OF Shed Long; IN/OF Tim Lopes; IN/OF Zach McKinstry

Rotation: Marco Gonzales; Marcus Stroman; Yusei Kikuchi; Justus Sheffield; Justin Dunn; Logan Gilbert

Bullpen: Kendall Graveman; Joe Kelly; Trevor May; Yohan Ramirez; Joey Gerber; Nick Margevicius; Anthony Misiewicz.   

The Wrap

In the expanded playoff format of 2020, the Mariners finished just two games behind the Astros for the AL West’s second best record and a berth into the playoffs. At the same time, the Mariners bullpen tallied nine blown saves.

See what we are getting at?     

Dipoto has already taken the first step at renovating the bullpen by resigning Kendall Graveman to a $1.5M incentive laden contract for next season. Graveman moved from the rotation to the bullpen last year after discovering a benign bone tumor in his neck.  After making that switch, Graveman made nine relief appearances and produced a 3.60 ERA/3.09 FIP and a 55.2% ground ball rate. A return to that role for an entire season should be a nice boost for the Mariners.

Joining Graveman in the bullpen will be right-handers Joe Kelly and Trevor May.  Kelly and May bring upper 90’s heat, miss bats, and do a good job of limiting hard contact.  Most importantly, both Kelly and May have experience (and success) bridging to the ninth inning and either (as well as Graveman) could be utilized as the team’s closer. The trio of Graveman, Kelly and May should provide manager Scott Servais with sufficient late inning options, something he did not have in 2020.

Stroman has generally been considered a top of the rotation starter throughout his career. However, unlike his counterparts tagged with the same designation, he is not a strikeout pitcher and, instead, is a ground ball specialist who relies on his defense.  That’s not to say Stroman can’t bring some heat. Stroman sits 92-93 with his fastball and can occasionally crank it up to 95. But his success comes from his sinker/slider combo that limits hard contact and results in a lot of ground ball outs. 

With so much focus nowadays placed on pitchers who tally big strikeout numbers – combined with the fact Stroman has been tagged with a qualifying offer – teams looking for rotation upgrades may be drawn more to the likes of Gausman, Tanaka, or even James Paxton. That bodes well for the Mariners who have the defense to support Stroman’s ground ball ways, and whose right arm would slot in nicely between lefties Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield.

Outside of the bullpen, the one area that will see the most change in 2021 is the outfield.  The Mariners used Jose Marmolejos and Philip Ervin in the outfield corners on most nights in 2020. However, neither player impressed as Marmolejos produced a .206/.261/.411 and Ervin a .205/.340/.282.  With both players out of options, Haniger slated to return to right field, and Kelenic expected to move into the starting outfield sometime in June, it is difficult to see Marmolejos and Ervin being with the team next year.

The Mariners have a handful of in-house options like Jake Fraley, Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, and Braden Bishop who can be plugged into the outfield as needed. McKinstry could also figure into the outfield mix. But with uncertainties surrounding Haniger’s ability to stay healthy, and Kelenic’s timeframe to adjust to MLB competition, adding someone who is proven and can play every day should be on Dipoto’s to-do list.

Grossman would serve as a reliable placeholder until Kelenic is ready to be called up and take a spot in the Mariners outfield. If and when that occurs, Grossman could then move into the designated hitter role, and occasionally spell Haniger and Kelenic as needed.  More importantly, Grossman would serve as an fallback plan should something happen to either Haniger or Kelenic, and the Mariners find themselves needing an everyday outfielder. 

Seattle Mariners 2020 Preview, Offseason Plan

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After six months of playing pretty ghastly baseball, the Seattle Mariners concluded their first year of “stepping back” with a much clearer vision of what the future may look like, and the success that will hopefully come with it.

Despite finishing the season with a 68-94 record, the Mariners saw improvement in many key areas important to their rebuilding effort thereby providing the organization, and fans alike, encouragement that the plan is progressing in the right direction.

The minor league system received strong performances from most of the organization’s top prospects, led by Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Jake Fraley, and Evan White.  As a result, a farm system ranked as one of the worst in baseball prior to the start of the 2019 season found itself in the top ten by year’s end.

Additionally, many of the prospects being counted upon in the rebuilding effort were not only able to make the jump to the majors, but also find some success in their first exposure against the game’s top talents.

JP Crawford and Shed Long displayed the offense, defense, and teamwork to affirm their status as the Mariners’ middle infield of the future.  Kyle Lewis’ torrent start to his MLB career reminded fans why he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball before suffering a devastating knee injury in 2016.  Despite inconsistency, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn showed flashes of dominance lending credence to each player’s top prospect billing.  And Erik Swanson, Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, and Sam Tuivailala provided a glimpse into the type of young talented arms that will comprise the team’s bullpen in the years to come.

The progress and achievements made by the Mariners’ minor leaguers and young rookies receiving their first taste of major league competition was about all Dipoto could have asked for in the first year of his abridged rebuilding plan.  Now, heading into the second phase of the step-back, the plan is to let the kids play.

Describing what to expect in 2020, Dipoto explained, “We’re looking at our young group and wanting to let them run with it. That’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

Dipoto continued, “As far as the position player group, I think most of what we’re going to do has already been done…that’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

In other words, the Mariners’ roster heading into 2020 is, for the most part, already set.  That is not to say Dipoto won’t be looking to add a few pieces.  A couple veteran relievers would be welcomed additions to a bullpen that will be short on experience.  In addition, a starting pitcher or two will be needed to help fill out a rotation that returns just two starters from last season.  However, while Dipoto has stated he will be keeping his eyes open for players that can help in either of those two areas, no one should be expecting any flashy acquisitions.  With the goal to give as much playing time as possible to the younger players, any veterans added will surely be on short-term deals so as to not block the progress of prospects, and to allow those veteran acquisitions to be easily traded should/when that need arises.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2020 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

The Moves 

  • Trade 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Dan Altavilla to the Cubs for SP/RP Tyler Chatwood

The Skinny:  Three reasons make this trade is a no-brainer: 1) The Mariners will be targeting a veteran starting pitcher for their rotation; 2) Dee Gordon is currently blocking Shed Long at 2B; and 3)  The Cubs are searching for stability at 2B.  With both Gordon and Chatwood in the final years of their respective contracts that pay each player nearly the same, a Gordon-for-Chatwood swap seems primed for the making.

  • Trade OF/DH Domingo Santana to the White Sox for LHP Jace Fry and INF Danny Mendick.

The Skinny:  Domingo Santana’s year-long defensive struggles in the outfield demonstrated that the power hitter’s best position is at DH.  However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at the position, the team finds itself with the less-than-ideal prospect of having to use Santana in the outfield again in 2020.  The White Sox finished the season ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in home runs, and are faced with losing a handful of hitters to free agency, including Jose Abreu and his 33 HRs and league leading 123 RBI.

  • Trade Tom Murphy to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Patrick Weigel 

The Skinny: With Brian McCann’s retirement and Francisco Cervelli a free agent, the Braves will be in the market for someone who, at the least, can share in the starting catcher duties should they pick up Tyler Flowers’ option.  With Tom Murphy’s surprise showing in 2019 (.858 OPS, 18 HRs) the Mariners have one to offer in exchange for something all rebuilding teams desire: a high upside major league ready pitching prospect.

  • Sign SP Kendall Graveman to a one year, $2.5M deal

The Skinny:  With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone free agents, the Mariners will need to find a few arms to fill out their rotation.  Baring trades, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi should be locks for the rotation, with top pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn given every chance to win rotation jobs out of Spring Training.  Kendall Graveman missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Projected to be healthy for 2020, Gravemen presents the ideal low risk/high reward player to slot into the back of the rotation.

  • Sign RHP Pedro Strop to a one year, $6M deal

The Mariners bullpen will rely on a handful of young high-octane arms age 26 and younger.  Adding an established veteran or two would help provide balance to a relief corps that lacks experience.  One of the better set-up men in baseball, Pedro Strop struggled through an injury plagued 2019 season where he posted some of the worst numbers of his career.  Looking to bounce back in 2020, Strop offers the Mariners an experienced arm that can bridge to the 9th inning or close.

  • Sign C’s Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training

With Tom Murphy traded to Atlanta, the Mariners will need to find someone to serve as a backup catcher to Omar Narvaez.  With Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre, the Mariners bring back two familiar faces to battle for the backup catcher role.  The Mariners do have top catching prospect Cal Raleigh knocking on the MLB door, but a call-up may not be in the cards until September.  Austin Nola is also capable of filling the backup catcher role, but he will most likely be the starting first baseman until Evan White is ready to take over, which should be sometime after July.

The 25-Man

Infield: 1B Austin Nola ($555K); 2B Shed Long ($555K); SS JP Crawford ($555K); 3B Kyle Seager ($19.5M); C Omar Narvaez ($2.9M)

Outfield: LF Kyle Lewis ($555K); CF Mallex Smith ($2.7M); RF Mitch Haniger ($3.0M)

Designated Hitter: Daniel Vogelbach ($559M)

Bench: OF Jake Fraley ($555K); UT Danny Mendick ($555K); C Jesus Sucre/Jose Lobaton ($750K)

Rotation: Marco Gonzales ($1.0M); Yusei Kikuchi ($16.0M); Justus Sheffield ($555K); Justin Dunn ($555K); Tyler Chatwood ($13.0M)

Bullpen: Tyler Guilbeau (L) ($555K); Jace Fry (L) ($569K); Erik Swanson ($555K); Sam Tuivailala ($900K); Art Warren ($555K); Gerson Bautista ($555K); Patrick Weigel ($555K); Pedro Strop ($6.0M).

The Wrap 

With the plan to hand the reins over to the organization’s young players while filling needs in-house, the Mariners won’t be looking to add a whole lot during the offseason other than a handful of players who can supplement a youthful roster and serve as safety nets in case any struggle.  The Mariners still have a couple trade chips in Marco Gonzales and Mitch Haniger, both of whom could bring back significant returns.  But the Mariners would be best to hold onto both players as Gonzales has established himself as a quality (and affordable) starter for a rotation short on quality (and affordable) starters and, after an injury plagued 2019 season, a trade of Haniger would see the Mariners selling low(er) on the former All-Star and MVP candidate.

In assessing the Mariners needs, the first order of business is to find a taker for Dee Gordon who is blocking Shed Long at 2B.

In his first taste of MLB action, Long slashed a .263/.333/.454 in 42 games, including a .289/.337/.518 in 23 September games, and formed a productive keystone combination with SS JP Crawford.  Gordon has never produced with the Mariners as he did with Miami where he won a batting title and two stolen base crowns.  However, some (much?) of that can be blamed on injuries.  After his first 45 games in 2018, Gordon fractured his toe and was placed on the injured list along with a .304 batting average and league leading 16 stolen bases.  The toe never fully healed, and Gordon struggled for the rest of year as a result.  Last season Gordon, again, got off to a solid start hitting .304 with 10 stolen bases in his first 38 games.  However, a JA Happ fastball off his right wrist, again, landed Gordon on the injured list.  Then in July, Gordon found himself back on the injured list with a strained quad.

Nevertheless, when healthy, Gordon displayed the type of speed, defense, and hitting ability that saw him average a .309/.340/.384 and 49 stolen bases over three seasons with the Marlins. Gordon’s biggest drawback, of course, is a contract that owes him $14.5M for the 2020 season including a $1M buyout in 2021.  To trade him, Seattle would have to cover a large portion of the money owed to Gordon, or take on a similar contract.

The Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood to a 3 year/$38M deal as a free agent in 2017.  However, Chatwood struggled in his first year as a starter, producing a 4-6 record and a 5.16 ERA in 20 starts.  Relegated to the bullpen for most of last season, Chatwood found greater success as a reliever posting a 3.67 ERA in 33 appearances. Now in the final year of his deal, Chatwood is set to earn $13M in 2020 from a Cubs team looking to find some consistency at 2B where seven players started at least 13 games at the position in 2019.

With Gordon due $1.5M more than Chatwood, the Cubs may not be willing to take on additional money in a straight across trade, or may feel that Gordon, alone, is not enough in return for a player who did produce decent numbers as a long reliever.  In any event, the Mariners may have to include an extra piece in the deal such as Dan Altavilla who, despite a tantalizing 98 mph fastball and some success at the MLB level, is now out of options and still looking to establish himself as a major league reliever.

The Mariners acquired Domingo Santana with the hope that the slugger could revert to the offensive force he was in 2017 when he slashed .278/.371/.505 and 30 HRs.  To the delight of the Mariners, Santana was on pace to replicate those numbers with a .286/.354/.496 and 18 home runs in his first 90 games.  However, right elbow inflammation suffered in July and a subsequent month-long stint on the injured list in August derailed what had been an impressive offensive showing to that point.

While Santana’s offense was a bright spot, his defense was a different story.  Santana produced a -23.8 UZR/150 and -10 DRS in left field, and -18.1 UZR/150 and -7 DRS in right field. Now knowing these defensive shortcomings, a move to DH is in order. However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at DH, getting Santana into the everyday lineup would require playing him in the field where his porous defense negates any offensive value.

The White Sox primarily employed Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, and Wellington Castillo at DH in 2019.  However, with Abreu and Castillo both free agents, and Alonso released mid season, the White Sox will be in the market for a few bats to help bolster an offense that was one of the worst in the American League.  Specifically, adding power to its lineup should be on the White Sox’s to-do list, where Santana’s bat would fit nicely into the team’s opening at DH.

In return, the Mariners would receive left-handed reliever Jace Fry.  Despite an underwhelming 4.75 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 2019, Fry still managed to carry an 11.13 K/9 and a 57% ground ball rate.  More importantly, Fry held left-handed batters to just a .193 average while producing an 11.25 K/9 and a 63% ground ball rate.  Fry would join Taylor Guilbeau as the other lefty out of the bullpen.  Additionally, the Mariners also receive utility player Danny Mendick who, prior to last season, never ranked among the White Sox’s top 30 prospects.  However, the 26 year old’s surprising .279/.368/.444 at Triple A landed him at No. 26 by year’s end.  The White Sox rewarded Mendick with a September call-up where he produced a respectable .308/.325/.462 in 16 games.  With the White Sox already having Leury Garcia in the utility role, Mendick’s ability win a roster spot in the coming seasons could be difficult. With the Mariners, Mendick would represent an upgrade over Dylan Moore who served the utility role for the team last year.

Acquiring Tom Murphy from the Giants for minor leaguer Jesus Ozoria may have been one of the top unheralded moves in baseball last year.  Failing to establish himself with Colorado over four seasons, the Rockies released Murphy prior to the 2019 season.  The Giants picked him up and promptly flipped him to Seattle where the former top prospect produced the best numbers of his career with a .273/.324/.535 and 18 HRs in 75 games.  With Omar Narvaez returning as the starting catcher, and Austin Nola capable of catching if needed, the Mariners should look to take advantage of a thin free agent catching market where several teams are searching for upgrades.

With Atlanta one of those teams, the Mariners would be wise to sell high on Murphy.  Here, the Mariners send Murphy to the Braves for the team’s No. 12 rated prospect in Patrick Weigel.  The 25-year-old was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2016 when Weigel went a combined 11-6 with a 2.47 ERA between Single-A and Double-A.  Primed to break into the Braves rotation in 2017, Weigel underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his throwing elbow.  In his first full season back last season, Weigel split time between Double-A and Triple-A where he made a combined 18 starts with a 3.20 ERA, and 10 relief appearances with a 1.35 ERA.  With a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s, Weigel projects as a middle to backend starter.  Yet, in shorter outings, Weigel can run his fastball up into the high 90’s thereby making scouts believe he could thrive in a late inning set-up role or even as a closer.

From 2015 to 2017, Kendall Graveman posted a record of 22-24 with a 4.11 ERA over 71 starts while with the Athletics.  However, in July of 2018, Graveman underwent Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his throwing arm requiring him to miss most of the 2019 season.  The Cubs signed Graveman that offseason to a league minimum one-year deal with a $3M option for 2020.  The hope was for Graveman to be able to recover by the end of last year and then help the Cubs the following season as a starter or reliever. Ultimately, however, the Cubs decided not to pick up Graveman’s option.

With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone all free agents, the Mariners need to find a few arms to round out their rotation.  Justus Sheffield is being counted on to fill one of the spots behind returning starters Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi. And Justin Dunn will be provided every opportunity to earn another rotation job.  The proposed trades for Tyler Chatwood and Patrick Weigel could result in one or both winning spots in the rotation. Additionally, the Mariners will take long looks at prospects Logan Gilbert, Ricardo Sanchez, and Anthony Misiewicz.  Of course, any starting staff relying on a handful of untested rookies and/or veterans trying to recapture past glory should recognize the inherent risks associated with such a plan.  Therefore, adding depth  to the rotation will be important.  Graveman provides the ideal veteran to stash in Triple-A due to the fact he will need to spend some time in the minors to build up arm strength, but also has a minor league option left.  As such, the Mariners can offer Graveman a major league deal, send him to Tacoma to start the season, and then bring him up when ready and needed.

One area the Mariners could see the most improvement in during the 2020 season is the bullpen. Much of 2019 was spent auditioning young’ish relievers who, despite still offering some upside, were released by other teams.  By August, the auditioning seemingly stopped and the Mariners settled on a group of relievers that included Sam Tuivailala, Erik Swanson, Art Warren, Matt Magill, Austin Adams, and Taylor Guilbeau.  Over the last two months of the season, that group helped combine for a 4.54 ERA and 4.48 FIP ranking them 8th and 9th respectively in the American League.  While far from dazzling, those numbers proved to be an improvement over the 4.90 ERA and 5.08 FIP produced by the Mariners bullpen in the four preceding months, ranking them near the bottom in the AL.

A quality veteran reliever (or two) should be targeted to bolster a projected young and inexperienced bullpen. Over the past six seasons, Pedro Strop has been one of the top relievers in baseball.  However, 2019 saw Strop turn in one of the worst seasons of his career.  Whether it was age finally catching up to the 34-year-old, or the nagging hamstring issues that landed him on the injured list twice, Strop’s 4.97 ERA was a far cry from the 2.61 ERA he had averaged over the prior five seasons. Still, Strop managed a 10.58 K/9 and induced ground balls at a 52.9% rate.  It’s not unreasonable to believe that a return to health from his leg issues should result in Strop getting back to numbers closer to his career norms. Moreover, Strop’s experience closing – where he has racked up 23 saves over the past two seasons – could prove vital for a Mariners bullpen hoping to find a closer among its many relief prospects.

Mariners’ fans may remember Jesus Sucre’s tenure with the team when he served as a backup for parts of four seasons from 2013 to 2016.  Sucre doesn’t bring much with the bat, but he has always been an above average defender. Sucre began 2019 with the Orioles big league team but after producing a .210/.269/.242 in 20 games he accepted an assignment to Triple-A.  Labaton spent most of 2019 as the starting catcher at Tacoma until traded to the Dodgers in August for cash considerations. A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Lobatan does not offer the type of defense that Sucre brings, but his bat is a bit more potent, and his ability to switch-hit offers the Mariners a left-handed compliment to the right-handed hitting Narvaez.  Either catcher would offer affordable veteran depth until top catching prospect Cal Raleigh joins the Mariners, presumably at some point during the second half of the season.

Conclusion       

The Mariners two biggest question marks heading into 2020 will be the rotation and bullpen.  Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will try to win jobs behind Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi.  Not taking any chances, the Mariners hedge their bets with the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, and Patrick Weigel, all of whom are capable of starting but could also be used in relief.   Jace Fry adds experience to a bullpen that will consist mainly of relievers with no more than one year of MLB service time to their name.  And Pedro Strop’s experience in the closer’s role could help alleviate any possible problems should the Mariners not find a closer among their group of young, high upside relievers.

Moreover, none of the acquisitions hinder prospect development, and all come with team friendly contracts that allow each to be easily traded if need be.

Dipoto has made it clear that most of the playing time in the coming season will be provided to those players who figure prominently in the organization’s foreseen 2021 launching point for playoff contention.  As such, the Mariners primary focus should be to acquire players who can support, guide, and nurture the inexperience that will seemingly saturate the 25-man roster, and the offseason moves mentioned above hopefully do just that.

Seattle Mariners 2019 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Re-imagine.

That is the word of the day.

No, not because the Mariners would like to re-imagine a 2018 season that saw the team sprint out to a 59-38 first half record giving fans visions of their first playoff appearance since 2001, only to then stumble to a 31-34 second half record that resulted in a 17th straight year of missing the post season.

Rather, re-imagine, as in GM Jerry Dipoto’s stated offseason plan heading into the 2019 season.

At the General Managers Meeting in Carlsbad, California, Dipoto talked about his offseason intentions to re-imagine the state of the Mariners.

“We’re open-minded to different ways we can get better, but what we’re hoping to achieve is to re-imagine our roster to look at it in terms of what is our quickest path to a championship club.”

Dipoto continued.

“We know what the Astros, Red Sox, A’s, Yankees and Indians look like. We don’t want to be a perpetual competitor for the second Wild Card. We want to build a championship roster…[w]hether through free agency or trade, we want to gather as much talent as we can.”

In other words, the Mariners are at a crossroads.

For the most part, Dipoto has maximized the dreadful minor league system he inherited by flipping the best of the worst prospects for a young core of MLB producers such as Ben Gamel, James Pazos, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales. And with James Paxton finally establishing himself as a true ace, Edwin Diaz transforming into an elite closer, and Robinson Cano still a very productive hitter, the Mariners have the talent to compete for a Wild Card. But Dipoto has his eyes set on being a World Series contender, and he is astute enough to know that his roster is a few pieces short of moving up to that level.

And therein lies the challenge.  With a reticence towards trading away top prospects due to the organization’s goal of rebuilding the minor league system, and the unlikelihood of being able to move any of the team’s veterans due to their hefty contracts, how does one make the necessary moves to elevate to the class of World Series contender?

The answer is to either raise payroll to allow for the acquisition of premiere free agents, or to deal off one or two of your young productive core players in exchange for a handful of highly rated MLB-ready prospects who you hope will reach their projected star potential.

Based on Dipoto’s track record and recent comments, it appears he is planning to go the route of the latter.

Last season we contended that the Mariners starting rotation merely had to stay healthy in order to provide the type of production needed for a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  And that notion held true.

In a reversal from 2017, Mariners starting pitchers avoided injury and, as a result, produced 77 quality starts, raising their near league worst number from the year before to the 8th best mark last season. With the rotation healthy and able to provide quality starts throughout the season, the starting staff was worth 11.7 fWAR, ranking them 5th in the league.  In addition, the bullpen, led by Edwin Diaz’s MLB-best 57 saves, tallied a 5.1 fWAR, also ranking them 5th in the league.

The offense, however, was a different story.

Despite receiving solid run production during the first three months of the season (4.4 runs/game through June), injuries to Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon, an 80 game PED suspension to Cano, and year-long struggles by Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino eventually became a weight too heavy to bear.  July slumps by Haniger, Segura, and Cruz would then bring the offense to its knees,  and the Mariners would go on to score just 3.3 runs/game over the  final three months of the season.

Most concerning, however, was the realization that once through the top half of the order (Haniger, Segura, Cruz and Cano) the Mariners received minimal production from the rest of the lineup.  In other words, the offense lacked length and, as a result, once an opposing pitcher worked past the first few hitters of the lineup, the rest posed little threat.

While the starting rotation and bullpen are two areas that can always benefit from another addition or two, Dipoto’s main objective heading into the offseason must be to create a more balanced batting order that will receive production throughout the entire lineup, not just from a few players.  With limited resources at his disposal, Dipoto may need to be creative in how he re-imagines his roster into one that can challenge the elite teams like Houston, Boston and New York.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2019 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade SP James Paxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers for SP Alex Wood, OF Alex Verdugo, and SP Dustin May

The Skinny: James Paxton and Edwin Diaz are Dipoto’s two most valuable trade assets. And with Paxton being a free agent in two years, the decision is to maximize his trade value by dealing him to a team looking to win it all in 2019.  Here, the key returns for the Mariners are center fielder Alex Verdugo and starting pitcher Dustin May, the #32 and #69 rated MLB prospects coming into 2018.  Verdugo, 22, is MLB-ready and possesses all the attributes Dipoto is looking for in a young player: athleticism, pure hitting ability, zone control, and plus defense. Blocked in Los Angeles due to a crowded outfield, Verdugo would immediately be penciled in as the Mariners opening day center fielder.  May, 21, is a lanky 6’6” 21-year-old righty who contains four quality pitches including a plus fastball that touches upper 90’s. A projected frontline starter, May would require another year of development in the minors before joining the Mariners rotation. To help bridge that one-year gap while also replacing Paxton’s productivity, the Mariners acquire 27-year-old Alex Wood who will enter free agency after the 2019 season. A fixture atop the Dodgers rotation the past several years, Wood made 27 starts in 2018 and produced a 3.65 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.72 xFIP, a 3.36 K/BB ratio, and a 49.2% ground ball rate.  Despite having Wood in the rotation for just one season, the Mariners would have the option of offering Wood a qualifying offer at season’s end where they would be in position to possibly receive a compensatory first-round draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming his contract is for at least $50M).

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to San Diego Padres for LF Wil Myers

The Skinny: The Mariners would love to get out from under Kyle Seager’s contract. However, without taking on most of the money still owed to him, trading Seager is a near impossibility.  In addition, the return they would receive would most likely be uninspiring.  So instead, the Mariners and Padres execute a one-for-one trade involving two historically productive players, signed to similarly bad contracts, who are both coming off down seasons.  Deals of this nature are somewhat unusual, but this one benefits both teams involved on several fronts.  With a crowded outfield and  Eric Hosmer – last year’s big free agent acquisition – entrenched at first base, the Padres no longer have to continue the Wil Myers experiment at third base as they now add a gold glover at the hot corner who is still in his prime and just a few years removed from a season where he received MVP consideration. Additionally, Seager’s remaining contract of three years/$56M is one year and $8M less than Myers’ outstanding commitment. For the Mariners, the 27-year-old Myers would be an upgrade over Gamel in left field, and although the Mariners would be taking on a contract that is slightly longer and more expensive than the one being giving up, the roster would get younger and Myers’ $3M owed in 2019 would free up $16M for Dipoto to spend elsewhere.

Trade RP Chasen Bradford & OF Guillermo Heredia to the Philadelphia Phillies for 3B Maikel Franco.

The Skinny: With Seager dealt to the Padres, the Mariners turn to Philadelphia to fill their third base vacancy. Once considered the future at third base after slashing a .280/.343/.497 his rookie season while also showing a strong arm and good range, Maikel Franco has underwhelmed since. Over the past three seasons, Franco has averaged a .250/.299/.431 and shown a propensity to chase pitches outside the strike zone. And his defense has declined from being slightly above average in 2016 (+2.5 UZR) to below average in 2018 (-5.0 UZR). With rumors circulating that the Phillies are looking to move on from their former top prospect, Franco’s young age (26), raw abilities, and control (free agent in 2022) should make him a target for the Mariners.

Sign Lonnie Chisenhall to a two year/$10M contract.

The Skinny: Can one (re)imagine what Lonnie Chisenhall could do if he just stayed healthy? To get a sense of what that could look like, one would have to go back to 2016 when Chisenhall slashed a solid .286/.328/.439 with 38 extra base hits in 418 plate appearances. Shoulder and nagging calf injuries have limited his playing time since then, but when healthy enough to step into the batter’s box (111 games, 365 at-bats) Chisenhall showed he can still wield a productive bat by putting up a rather gaudy .297/.368/.503.  With Nelson Cruz headed towards a free agent payday that will undoubtedly be too rich for the Mariners’ liking, and Dipoto hinting he would prefer to move away from a DH-only type of player, the more versatile Chisenhall can step in as the primary designated hitter where reduced field time will (hopefully) keep him off the disabled list, in addition to being able to play third base or a corner outfield position should the occasional need arise. 

Sign SP Charlie Morton to a three year, $48M contract.

The Skinny: At age 34, Charlie Morton continues to defy father time. Last year Morton produced one of the best seasons of his career by posting a record of 15-3 (30 starts) with a 3.13 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.42 xFIP and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. In addition, the right-hander continued to show impressive velocity (mid-90’s fastball) and a good ability to keep the ball on the ground (47%). While two years would be a preferred contract length for someone about to turn 35, offering three years is not unreasonable as Rich Hill, at age 36, signed a three year/$48M deal with the Dodgers just prior to the 2017 season. And with Morton showing no signs of slowing down, the Mariners should feel confident he will remain productive throughout the life of the contract.

Sign INF/OF Josh Harrison to a one year, $4M contract with a second year $4M player option and $2M team buyout.

The Skinny: Last season, veteran Andrew Romine served as the Mariners primary utility player where he saw time at every position other than catcher and pitcher. In that role, Romine played in 75 games, slashed a .210/.260/.244, struck out at a near 30% clip, and produced a woeful 44 wRC+.  Looking for more offense, the Mariners ink the versatile Josh Harrison who is capable of playing second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and right field. A career .277/.317/.408 hitter, Harrison played in 97 games last season and slashed a .250/.293/.363 with a 78 wRC+. While those numbers are a slight dip from his career numbers, Harrison is just one-year removed from producing a .272/.339/.432, 104 wRC+, and a 2.6 fWAR playing 128 games played at second base, third base, and left field.  Even if Harrison repeats his numbers from last season, such production will be a fairly significant upgrade over Romine.

The 25-Man  

Infield: 1B Robinson Cano ($24M); 2B Dee Gordon ($13.3M); SS Jean Segura ($14.85M); 3B Maikel Franco ($5.1M); C: Mike Zunino ($4.2M)

Outfield: LF Wil Myers ($5.5M); CF Alex Verdugo ($500K); RF Mitch Haniger ($600K)

Designated Hitter: Lonnie Chisenhall ($5M)

Bench: UT Josh Harrison ($4M); OF Ben Gamel ($600K); C David Freitas ($500K)

Rotation: Charlie Morton ($16M); Alex Wood ($9M); Mike Leake ($11M); Marco Gonzales ($900K); Wade LeBlanc ($2.3M)/Felix Hernandez ($27.86M)

Bullpen: Roenis Elias ($1M); James Pazos ($500K); Matt Festa ($500K); Shawn Armstrong ($500K); Juan Nicasio ($9.25M); Alex Colome ($7.3M); Edwin Diaz ($500K); LeBlanc/Hernandez

The Wrap

Our offseason plan involves six moves that total $45.1M.  Adding in players already under contract and projected arbitration figures, this would bring the opening day 25-man payroll to roughly $166M, which would be an increase of about $8M from last year.

The plan is a two-prong approach that keeps in line with how Dipoto has gone about restructuring the Mariners. On one hand, Dipoto continues to add younger controlled players like Verdugo, May and Myers who project as productive foundational pieces moving forward. On the other hand, proven veterans are also brought in on reasonable short-term deals, such as Wood, Morton, and Harrison, who will provide upgraded production to help improve upon last seasons 89 wins. 

In addition, a few of the transactions are made with the intent of not just upgrading one particular position, but triggering a domino effect that upgrades other positions as well.

For example, while Verdugo’s offensive skills project highly at the MLB level, his defense should be an immediate upgrade over both Gordon and Guillermo Heredia in center field. With Verdugo in center, Gordon can remain at second base where he is a better defender than Cano, and Cano can then move to first base where he would be a significant upgrade over Healy.

Likewise, Myers’ offense (25 doubles, 11 homeruns in 2018) and defense (3.4 UZR, +4 DRS) is not only an upgrade in left field, but would then allow Gamel to become the team’s fourth outfielder where he should prove superior to Heredia, who slashed a meager .236/.318/.342 and provided a -10 DRS in the outfield.

On the pitching front, a Charlie Morton-Alex Wood tandem at the top of the rotation represents a much stronger one-two punch over last season’s Felix Hernandez-James Paxton duo, as the former combined for 5.7 fWAR while the latter totaled 4.1 fWAR. Moreover, the additions of Morton and Wood, followed by Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales, would then provide the Mariners the ability to use either Hernandez or Wade LeBlanc in a swing role, splitting their respective time between long relief and starting.

Of course, the offseason is not without taking  few chances on players looking to reach their upside on a consistent basis.  Throughout his career, Franco has flashed moments of his projected star ceiling, none more than last year when he carried the Phillies’ offense for the entire month of July by slashing a .330/.378/.593 with seven home runs.  And Chisenhall has shown he is more than capable of being an .800 OPS hitter when healthy.

One may have noticed no moves were made in regard to the Mariners’ bullpen.  This was by design as relievers are typically the most overpaid, yet most volatile, players on a roster and rarely live up to the contracts they are given.  Moreover, the organization’s minor league system is deep with hard throwing relievers nearing the majors, as well as the fact that the Mariners will return a bevy of solid bullpen arms who pitched for them last season.  

One decision Dipoto will have to make regarding the bullpen is whether to carry seven or eight relievers.  Such a decision will have a direct effect on what the team does with Healy and Dan Vogelbach, the latter of which is out of options.  If Dipoto chooses to carry seven relievers, then a choice will need to be made as to who to keep as a bench piece.  With Healy still having options, our preference would be to start him at Tacoma and give Vogelbach another opportunity to prove himself at the major league level.  However, the Mariners are sure to keep eight relievers meaning Vogelbach – at some point – will have to be traded, with Healy beginning the year as a Rainier.  

With the Trade Deadline Approaching, Mariners Should Look at Kevin Gausman

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Despite being 19 games above .500 with a record of 58-39 and in sole possession of the second wild card, the Mariners limped into the All-Star break losers of their last three series including a three game sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Now, after four days of regrouping, the Mariners will push off into the final 65 games of the season looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Part of that “regrouping” will include GM Jerry Dipoto surveying the MLB landscape in hopes of bringing aboard another pitcher prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline to help lessen the workload of his rotation.

In recent weeks, Dipoto has stated an interest in supplementing his rotation with another pitcher, whether that be a starter or reliever.

“[W]e’re not particularly looking to replace anybody because they have all been really strong contributors to what we’re doing. It’s a good group of five. If we have a chance to augment it, we will. But we’re not looking to replace anybody. They’ve all done such a nice job…The only real concern with our starting rotation is as the innings start to pile up, there’s going to be guys who go into innings thresholds and zones they’ve never been to before. We want to be conscious of that.”

Those “inning thresholds” Dipoto speaks of are primarily in regard to the Mariners’ two most inexperienced starters, Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Gonzales has already surpassed his career total in innings (113.1) while LeBlanc has tossed the most innings in a season (85.0 ) since 2010 when he started 25 games for the San Diego Padres and logged 146.0 innings.

But there is some concern regarding a couple of their veteran hurlers as well.

Last season, James Paxton set career highs in games started with 24 and innings pitched with 136.0. This year Paxton has already started 19 games and logged 118.2 innings, and will surely blow past his career highs set last year.

In a precautionary move aimed at taking advantage of the extra off days coinciding with the All-Star break, the Mariners placed Paxton on the 10-day disabled list after exiting his last start with back stiffness.

Felix Hernandez – with 19 starts and 105.1 innings pitched – has already surpassed the number of games started (16) and innings pitched (86.2) from last year’s injury riddled campaign, and is on pace to eclipse his 2016 totals.

And like Paxton, the Mariners placed Hernandez on the 10-day disabled list just before the All-Star break as a protective measure to rest a sore back.

Given the unease towards the rotation’s workload, and now the emergence of possible health issues to two of their experienced rotation pieces, the addition of another arm for the rotation would likely make the most sense for the Mariners.

With Dipoto not wanting to replace any of his current starters, the Mariners could conceivably utilize a six-man rotation allowing Gonzales and LeBlanc to share the fifth starter duties, and provide Paxton and Hernandez the ability to take a day off when needed.

Additionally, another starter would also provide insurance in case of injury and a subsequent stint on the disable list.

Of course, that begs the question: What starting pitcher is available that not only fits the Mariners needs, but is a realistic option in terms of cost?

In the past month, the Mariners have been connected to Cole Hamels of the Rangers, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Hamels and Happ are experienced pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, and either would help the Mariners.

However, both would be rentals as Happ is a free agent at the end of the season, and Hamels’ $20M team option for 2019 would surely be too expensive for the Mariners to pick up. It is difficult envisioning Dipoto spending the necessary prospects to acquire either of the veteran pitchers given the limited tenure that each bring with them.

Alternatively, Boyd would be a more attractive option as he will not be arbitration eligible until 2020, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2022 season.

But Boyd’s career 5.29 ERA (4.81 FIP), and 4.76 ERA this season (4.26 FIP) are numbers the Mariners could receive from in-house options such as Christian Bergman (career 5.54 ERA, 5.01 FIP), Roenis Elias (career 4.15 ERA, 4.33 FIP), or Erasmo Ramirez (career 4.48 FIP).

Others who have been mentioned as possible trade options for teams looking to add starting pitching are Tyson Ross of the Padres, James Shields of the White Sox, Kyle Gibson of the Twins, Matt Harvey of the Reds, Ivan Nova of the Pirates, and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rays.

All of the above-mentioned players could be helpful additions to the Mariners rotation. But questions regarding health (Ross, Eovaldi, Harvey) or production (Shields, Gibson, Nova) makes any cost-benefit analysis lean more towards doubtful than favorable.

One name that has received little trade deadline attention but who would fit nicely in the Mariners rotation is Kevin Gausman.

The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft and former No. 20 MLB prospect has been a solid fixture in the Orioles rotation since 2014.

Since joining the big league club in 2013, Gausman has produced a 4.22 ERA, (4.20 FIP, 3.95 xFIP), a 3.04 K/BB ratio and has averaged 5.7 innings per start. He is tracking those career numbers this season with a 4.33 ERA (4.46 FIP, 3.89 xFIP), 3.59 K/BB ratio, and averaging 5.9 innings per start.

While those numbers are solid, his inability to reach the expectations of becoming a Cy Young caliber ace has been a growing frustration for Orioles’ fans and organization.

But Gausman’s raw abilities can’t be ignored.

His fastball averages 94 mph and is still capable of touching upper 90’s. His changeup, often recognized as one of the best in baseball, sits low 80’s and has tremendous movement. And his slider bites suddenly and sharply making it an effective out pitch.

In addition, Gausman misses bats at an above league average rate (11.5 swSTR%), and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB rate).

Furthermore, Gausman is just entering his prime at age 27, is making a team-friendly $5.6M this year, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2020 season.

There have been no indications that the Orioles are willing to move Gausman, specifically. But with an aging roster and the second worst record in all of baseball, Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM Dan Duquette has stated his team will be moving forward with a rebuild of its roster and baseball operations.

If the Orioles are seriously committed to a complete overhaul, then Gausman should be available for the right offer. But what would that “right offer” have to be?

Any trade proposal would have to start with Kyle Lewis, the Mariners top prospect. It would then have to include a couple more top organizational prospects.

A starting point could be a package consisting of Lewis, starting pitcher Max Povse, and outfielder Anthony Jimenez.

Here, the Mariners would be trading the No. 67 overall rated MLB prospect (Lewis) along with their organization’s No.7 (Povse) and No. 13 (Jimenez) prospects. That package could be tweaked by adding a young player with some MLB experience such as Daniel Vogelbach or even Guillermo Heredia.

Which is reasonable considering last season:

–The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (age 27, 2.5 years of control) from the Athletics for two top-100 MLB prospects in infielder Jorge Mateo (#85) and right-handed starting pitcher James Kaprielian (#87), as well as outfield prospect Dustin Fowler.

–The Chicago Cubs acquired Jose Quintana (age 28, 1.5 years of control) from the Chicago White Sox for two top-100 MLB rated prospects in outfielder Eloy Jimenez (#14) and starting pitcher Dylan Cease (#97), in addition to first base prospect Matt Rose, and infield prospect Bryant Flete.

–The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander (age 34, 2.5 years of control) from the Detroit Tigers for one top-100 MLB rated prospect in starting pitcher Franklin Perez (#54), outfield prospect Daz Cameron (2016’s #74 rated prospect) and catching prospect Jake Rogers.

Gausman is not on the same level as Gray, Quintana, and even Verlander, so he’s not going to command two top-100 MLB prospects like those three did. However, his age, affordability, contract status, and upside should net the Orioles one mid to lower end top-100 prospect.

Naturally, parting with Lewis would be a tough pill to swallow given the dearth of blue chip talent in the Mariners’ minor league system.

Lewis is arguably the one Mariners prospect with star potential. However, early into his professional career, Lewis has already had to deal with a serious knee injury that has not only set back his development, but has raised question whether the knee can hold up to the wear and tear of playing center field.

Many in the Mariners organization believe a move to a corner outfield position is inevitable for Lewis, especially after the Mariners’ recent selection of centerfielder Josh Stowers in the second round of this year’s amateur draft.

If such a move occurs, it will present an interesting future dilemma for the Mariners.

With right field currently occupied for the foreseeable future by All-Star Mitch Haniger, Lewis’ path to the big leagues will lead him to left field.

Then there is 17-year-old Julio Rodriguez, slashing a robust .336/.422/.518 in the Dominican Summer League, who also profiles as a future corner outfielder and middle of the order power bat, and who is projected to reach the big leagues just a year or two after Lewis.

See the predicament?

With Haniger entrenched in right field, and both Lewis and Rodriguez on a trajectory towards left field, something – or someone – is going to have to give.

Considering these factors, if the Mariners believe Rodriguez is the real deal then moving Lewis for productive and controllable pitching makes sense.

Of course, the Mariners have been down this same road before with the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard trade. So naturally, there will be wariness.

But unlike Bedard, Gausman has been durable and injury free throughout his career.

And if the Mariners can get Gausman to take that next step, they will have found what every team dreams of finding: extreme value in impact starting pitching.

The Mariners Have An Outfielder Problem. And It’s Not Ichiro.

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The Mariners find themselves with an outfielder problem.

And despite the passionate opinion of a vocal segment of fans, no, it’s not Ichiro.

After being called up from Tacoma at the end of April last year to fill in for the injured Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel introduced himself to opposing pitchers by blistering the baseball to the tune of .348/.405/.489 in his first 55 games. However, Gamel finished out the remainder of his 2017 season by slashing a sub par .219/.255/.354 over the final 77 contests.

Ostensibly, the Mariners hoped that their projected starting left fielder for 2018 would shake off that 77 game slump in spring training and start the new season closer to how he began it in 2017. However, that did not happen as Gamel missed most all of spring training (and the first two weeks of the regular season) due to a right oblique strain suffered at the beginning of March.

After five weeks on the disabled list, Gamel returned April 18 but the results, so far, have been more of how he ended last year.

In his nine games since returning to the starting lineup, Gamel is slashing a lowly .125/.192/.250 with a .198 wOBA, 22 wRC+, and a -0.2 WAR.

Of course, one must point out the fact this is just a sample size of 24 at-bats in 2018. But when added to that 77 game slash line of .219/.255/.354. (.271 wOBA and a 68 wRC+ during that second half of play) the sample size becomes much more worrisome.

Making matters worse, Gamel’s continuing struggles seem to be affecting how the Mariners are managing their 25-man roster.

With Gamel’s injury, the Mariners brought Ichiro back on a near league-minimum one year deal to temporarily serve as a fill-in. As anyone who has spent any amount of time on social media can tell you, the signing of Ichiro caused much skepticism among certain fans.

That skepticism quickly turned to anger last week when the Mariners decided to demote Gamel’s platoon partner, Guillermo Heredia, along with his .968 OPS, to Tacoma in favor of keeping Ichiro with team.

The Mariners rationalized the move by explaining how the abundance of right-handed starters coming up over the next 10 games would limit Heredia’s playing time.

In baseball reasoning, the move made some sense.

However, while the initial plan was for Ichiro to platoon with Heredia in left field until Gamel returned, at which point the Mariners would then provide Ichiro his walking papers, Gamel’s continuing struggles – at least in part – seem to be causing the Mariners some reluctance to cut ties with the future Hall of Famer.

Ichiro is slashing just a .250/.289/.250 in 38 plate appearances in 2018, but over his last 20 at-bats Ichiro is hitting .300 with a .364 OBP, which is akin to what he produced in the second half of last season when he slashed a .299/.384/.379 with a 108 wRC+.

Although the Mariners surely still see the 25-year-old Gamel as the long-term plan in left field, complicating matters is the fact that at some point Jerry Dipoto is going to have to decide whether continuing to pencil the struggling Gamel into the everyday lineup is not just in Gamel’s best interests, but the Mariners’ best interests as well.

And if Dipoto does choose to, say, send Gamel down to Tacoma to work on his swing much like he did with Mike Zunino last season, the Mariners will need a left-handed hitting outfielder to pair with Heredia.

Hence, Ichiro still being on the roster as insurance.

The wild card factor in all of this comes in the form of the all-star and four-time MVP candidate the Mariners have percolating down in the Rainiers outfield.

Before suffering a series of injuries last season that sidelined him for roughly three months, Jayson Werth was slashing a .262/.367/.446 (.814 OPS) as the everyday left fielder for the Washington Nationals.

Despite being 38 years of age, the Mariners are hoping there is still some of that production left in Werth’s bat shown last season.

With Gamel laboring, Ichiro seemingly on borrowed time, and Heredia not yet showing his is capable of playing every day, it would not be a surprise to see the right-handed hitting Werth eventually up with the Mariners as their everyday starter in left field.

One would surmise that Heredia would then serve as the team’s fourth outfelder, with Ichrio being released and Gamel demoted to Tacoma.

But, then again, if Werth is playing everyday, the Mariners may elect to have both Gamel and Heredia getting everyday at-bats in Tacoma rather than having either one sitting on the bench with the big league club.

And if that ended up being the case, one shouldn’t be surprised to still find Ichiro lingering on the roster serving as Werth’s back-up.