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Seattle Mariners 2021 Preview, Offseason Plan

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The 2020 Mariners baseball campaign was intended to be one of major league development for the team’s young core.  The goal was to let the youth take the reins, absorb some bumps and bruises in the first half of the year, and then show improvement and competitive play in the second half.  A big part of that plan involved the anticipated arrivals of top prospects Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic who were expected to be called up from the minors at some point during the latter half of the season.

But with the COVID19 pandemic canceling the minor league season and reducing the regular MLB season to just 60 games, the Mariners’ young core were left with just one-third of a normal MLB season to prime themselves for the Mariners projected playoff window starting in 2021. In addition, the organization’s top prospects had to settle for a year of competing against each other through intrasquad games.   

That’s not to say the MLB season was a complete loss for a rebuilding team like the Mariners.

GM Jerry Dipoto’s crew finished the season with a 27-33 record which, by most people’s accounts, surpassed expectations. More encouraging was the fact that the Mariners went 16-14 over their final 30 games.     

Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.10 ERA/3.32 FIP) and Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA/3.17 FIP) anchored a starting rotation that ranked a respectable 15th in baseball in ERA (4.41) and FIP (4.29), and graded out as the 10th most valuable rotation overall with a 4.9 fWAR. 

The offense was not quite as effective, finishing 21st in baseball with a 5.4 fWAR.  But the strong play of Kyle Lewis (.262/.364/.437, AL Rookie of the Year Award winner), JP Crawford (255/.336/.338, Gold Glove Award winner), Dylan Moore (.255/.358/.496 playing seven different positions), and mid-season acquisition Ty France (.302/.362/.453) provided far more optimism than what the overall numbers indicated.

The bullpen, however, was a far different story. With a 6-13 record, 5.92 ERA, 5.81 FIP and -1.5 fWAR, the Mariners relief corps was one of the worst in baseball.

Dipoto has gone on record stating that the primary focus will be on upgrading his bullpen. Specifically, Dipoto will be seeking three to four relievers who will help address last season’s late game struggles.

In addition, Dipoto further stated the Mariners would continue to use a six-man rotation, signaling that a starting pitcher could be an offseason target.

Having reduced payroll significantly over the past two seasons, Dipoto and the Mariners will have plenty of money to spend. And with many teams looking to cut costs after being hit with revenue losses due to the shortened season, the Mariners could find themselves at a financial advantage this offseason when it comes to free agent spending.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2021 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Joe Kelly and IN/OF Zach McKinstry.

The Skinny: With Justin Turner a free agent, the Dodgers enter the offseason needing to find a third baseman.  Resigning Turner is still an option but, at age 36, his defense is not quite what it used to be, and injuries have become more of a concern.  Acquiring the younger Kyle Seager to play alongside his brother Corey may be the more attractive option.  Seager is due $33M over the next two seasons, but that may not be an issue given his above average defense and a .789 OPS averaged over the past two seasons.  However, with the understanding that money can always be a concern, Joe Kelly’s contract offsets the amount owed to Seager by roughly $13M, which would reduce Seager’s AAV to just $10M per year.

The Dodgers signed Kelly prior to the 2019 season to a 3 year/$21M deal, including a $12M option and $4M buyout for 2022, to serve as the team’s primary set-up man for closer Kenley Jensen. Kelly’s tenure with the Dodgers has not lived up to expectations as he posted a subpar 4.56 ERA in 2019 and spent five weeks on the injured list this past season with shoulder inflammation, as well as being suspended eight games (reduced to five) for throwing at Alex Bregman in July. Still, Kelly’s 24.4 K% and 10.4 K/9 during his time with the Dodgers would be a welcomed upgrade for a Mariners bullpen that ranked 28th in K% (20.2) and 26th in K/9 (8.29) in 2020.

Coming into 2020, Zach McKinstry was the Dodgers No. 18 rated prospect according to MLB Pipeline. McKinstry broke out in 2019 at the AA and AAA levels where he combined to slash .300/.366/.516 with 19 homeruns. That showing helped prompt a call up this past September where he slashed .286/.286/.428 in four games. McKinstry is often likened to Chris Taylor – someone who can play multiple positions with solid defense and has above average bat-to-ball skills. McKinstry’s versatility could see him challenge for time at second or third base, and/or provide depth at shortstop and in the outfield.  

Sign SP Marcus Stroman to a 4 year/ $64M deal.

The Skinny: Adding a frontline starting pitcher as one of the final pieces to the “step-back” would occur, ideally, after the 2021 season where the Mariners would have a better idea about the futures of Justin Dunn, Nick Marjevicius, Ljay Newsome, and Logan Gilbert.  However, the 2021 class of free agent starting pitchers does not leave much to be desired. There’s Noah Syndergaard, and then a handful of past-their-prime starters in Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke, to name a few. Of course, there still may be one or even two decent years left in one of those aforementioned names.  But if one is looking to add a front line pitcher in the next year or so who is still in their prime, this offseason may be the time to do that.

Stroman sat out the 2020 season due to COVID19 concerns but has always been one of the better starting pitchers throughout his career.  Over the past three seasons, Stroman has averaged a 3.65 ERA and 3.83 FIP.  In 2019 Stroman produced a 3.22 ERA/3.72 FIP across 32 starts and 184.1 innings for Blue Jays and Mets.  Stroman would slide right in between left-handers Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield as the Mariners No. 2 starter.

Sign RP Trevor May to a 3 year/$16M deal.

The Skinny: Among all the relievers available on the free agent market, Trevor May is probably the one guy who checks the most boxes for Dipoto and the Mariners.  A power pitcher who touches upper 90’s with good command, May’s strikeout rates (top 2%), whiff rates (top 1%) spin rates (top 25%) and velocity (top 11%) are among the best in baseball and, therefore, should draw a great deal interest from Dipoto and his analytics-driven team.   

While May does have a tendency to give up the long ball due to an exit velocity and barrel% not near as shiny as his missed bats rates, he has been highly effective since making the switch from starting pitcher to full-time reliever in 2016.  Since that time, May has produced a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP and 12.3 K/9.  This past season, May produced a 3.86 ERA/3.62 FIP and 14.7 K/9. 

Sign OF Robbie Grossman to a 1 year/$4M deal

The Skinny: By the end of June, the Mariners expect to be running out a starting outfield of Kelenic, Lewis, and Mitch Haniger. However, the question needing to be answered by the start of the season is who will be holding down left field until Kelenic is ready?

A switch hitter, Grossman has consistently been one of the more underrated players in the game. Grossman is not going to challenge for any homerun or batting titles, but he will do what he has done throughout his career: get on base.  Since 2016, Grossman has averaged a .257/.359/.395.  In 2020 alone, he slashed a .241/.344/.482.  Grossman can play all three outfield positions, but is best suited in the corners where he provides average to above-average defense.  

The 26-Man

Infield: 1B Evan White; 2B Dylan Moore; SS JP Crawford; 3B Ty France; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Robbie Grossman; CF Kyle Lewis; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Jake Fraley

Bench: C Luis Torrens; IN/OF Shed Long; IN/OF Tim Lopes; IN/OF Zach McKinstry

Rotation: Marco Gonzales; Marcus Stroman; Yusei Kikuchi; Justus Sheffield; Justin Dunn; Logan Gilbert

Bullpen: Kendall Graveman; Joe Kelly; Trevor May; Yohan Ramirez; Joey Gerber; Nick Margevicius; Anthony Misiewicz.   

The Wrap

In the expanded playoff format of 2020, the Mariners finished just two games behind the Astros for the AL West’s second best record and a berth into the playoffs. At the same time, the Mariners bullpen tallied nine blown saves.

See what we are getting at?     

Dipoto has already taken the first step at renovating the bullpen by resigning Kendall Graveman to a $1.5M incentive laden contract for next season. Graveman moved from the rotation to the bullpen last year after discovering a benign bone tumor in his neck.  After making that switch, Graveman made nine relief appearances and produced a 3.60 ERA/3.09 FIP and a 55.2% ground ball rate. A return to that role for an entire season should be a nice boost for the Mariners.

Joining Graveman in the bullpen will be right-handers Joe Kelly and Trevor May.  Kelly and May bring upper 90’s heat, miss bats, and do a good job of limiting hard contact.  Most importantly, both Kelly and May have experience (and success) bridging to the ninth inning and either (as well as Graveman) could be utilized as the team’s closer. The trio of Graveman, Kelly and May should provide manager Scott Servais with sufficient late inning options, something he did not have in 2020.

Stroman has generally been considered a top of the rotation starter throughout his career. However, unlike his counterparts tagged with the same designation, he is not a strikeout pitcher and, instead, is a ground ball specialist who relies on his defense.  That’s not to say Stroman can’t bring some heat. Stroman sits 92-93 with his fastball and can occasionally crank it up to 95. But his success comes from his sinker/slider combo that limits hard contact and results in a lot of ground ball outs. 

With so much focus nowadays placed on pitchers who tally big strikeout numbers – combined with the fact Stroman has been tagged with a qualifying offer – teams looking for rotation upgrades may be drawn more to the likes of Gausman, Tanaka, or even James Paxton. That bodes well for the Mariners who have the defense to support Stroman’s ground ball ways, and whose right arm would slot in nicely between lefties Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield.

Outside of the bullpen, the one area that will see the most change in 2021 is the outfield.  The Mariners used Jose Marmolejos and Philip Ervin in the outfield corners on most nights in 2020. However, neither player impressed as Marmolejos produced a .206/.261/.411 and Ervin a .205/.340/.282.  With both players out of options, Haniger slated to return to right field, and Kelenic expected to move into the starting outfield sometime in June, it is difficult to see Marmolejos and Ervin being with the team next year.

The Mariners have a handful of in-house options like Jake Fraley, Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, and Braden Bishop who can be plugged into the outfield as needed. McKinstry could also figure into the outfield mix. But with uncertainties surrounding Haniger’s ability to stay healthy, and Kelenic’s timeframe to adjust to MLB competition, adding someone who is proven and can play every day should be on Dipoto’s to-do list.

Grossman would serve as a reliable placeholder until Kelenic is ready to be called up and take a spot in the Mariners outfield. If and when that occurs, Grossman could then move into the designated hitter role, and occasionally spell Haniger and Kelenic as needed.  More importantly, Grossman would serve as an fallback plan should something happen to either Haniger or Kelenic, and the Mariners find themselves needing an everyday outfielder. 

Seattle Mariners 2017 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Last season, Jerry Dipoto’s first foray into the offseason as GM of the Seattle Mariners involved reconstructing an entire bullpen, finding two starting pitchers, and filling holes at first base, catcher, left field, and center field. His offseason moves translated into an 86 win season, second place in the AL West, and just missing out on the playoffs.

Heading into 2017, Dipoto still has work to do but the challenges are not near as daunting. At the top of Dipoto’s wish list are finding a right handed bat to platoon at first base with rookie Dan Vogelbach, a left-handed reliever, and a corner outfielder.

As was the case last season, Dipoto has come out of the offseason gates quickly, having already made trades for catcher Carlos Ruiz, first baseman/designated hitter Danny Valencia, and shortstop Jean Segura. Below is our offseason plan, with corresponding updates.

So, without further ado…

  • Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B/OF Stefan Romero and minor league RHP Brandon Miller to the Miami Marlins for OF Marcel Ozuna and SS Adeiny Hechavarria. 

Dipoto enters the offseason with only one everyday outfielder on his 25-man roster: center fielder Leonys Martin. With Nelson Cruz set to see even more time at designated hitter, Seth Smith strictly a platoon player, and Franklin Gutierrez most likely having played his last game wearing blue and green, the Mariners find themselves short on experienced outfielders.  Youngsters Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel showed flashes of being solid everyday players, however, the two have a total of 164 at-bats between them at the mlb level.

To address this problem, Dipoto revisits the Ozuna trade talks from last offseason, this time agreeing to part with the talented, yet inconsistent and injury-prone Walker. Last season was another up and down year for Walker, one in which he showcased stretches of pure dominance as well as looking completely lost.  Still, Walker is young, cost-controlled, and has a high ceiling.  In a market where average starting pitching commands big dollars and multi-year contracts, Walker’s young age and high ceiling still renders him a desirable asset.  In Romero, the Marlins acquire a young hitter who can compete for the team’s need for a right-handed platoon bat at first base. Romero has produced against minor league pitching throughout his career, averaging a .299/.347/.514 at Tacoma, but is out of options with the Mariners.  Romero could fill the Mariners own platoon need at first base, however, having two inexperienced players at that position is not ideal. And should Romero struggle, the Mariners would be left with no alternative but to release him.

With the addition of Ozuna, Dipoto adds another young, athletic outfielder who can hit and play superb defense. Dipoto has expressed his preference to have Ketel Marte begin 2017 in Tacoma so he can further hone his shortstop skills.  Inserting Hechavarria as the everyday shortstop will allow such a wish.  Hechavarria struggled at the plate last year, slashing a .236/.283/.311, but some of that could be attributed to a slight dip in his babip, down from his career mark of .310 to .269.  In his previous two seasons, Hechavarria averaged a .278/.311/.676 so the ability to be a league average hitter exists.  And with Hechavarria’s defense, league average offensive production would be more than enough.  All Hechavarria did defensively last season was put up an 8.3 UZR and +9 DRS.  The year before, a 15.8 UZR and +9 DRS.  Even with his dismal showing at the place, Hechavarria was still worth 0.4 fWAR in 2016.  In comparison, Marte’s value came in at -0.7 fWAR.

Update: Dipoto pulled the trigger on the biggest deal of the offseason so far, trading Walker and Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for all-star shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-handed pitcher Zac Curtis.  While we felt finding an upgrade in the outfield should be priority number one – with Walker the asset to accomplish such a need – it’s hard to argue with the addition of Segura.   

Swapping out Marte for Segura (319/.368/.499, 20 homeruns, 33 steals shortstop, 5.0 fWAR in 2016) provides an instant upgrade and a legitimate leadoff hitter to the lineup. Haniger brings defense at all three outfield positions and a right handed bat that can spell Gamel and/or Smith against left handed pitching, and Curtis provides much needed left handed pitching depth, with the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Mariners’ bullpen.   

  • Trade minor league prospects SP Zach Lee and OF Gareth Morgan to the New York Yankees for OF Brett Gardner, and 
  • Trade OF Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for RP Trevor Rosenthal. 

With Ozuna set as the new right fielder, the Mariners turn their focus towards left field. Gamel is slated to start in one of the corner outfield positions, but the to-be 25 year old rookie has only 33 major league games under his belt and a .188/.278/.292 to show for it.  Given those facts, it would be difficult to believe Dipoto wouldn’t go with someone better if available.

That “someone better” would be Gardner, as it is reported the Yankees are listening to offers for the veteran outfielder. In Gardner, Dipoto is able to fill two glaring needs: finding an established left fielder and someone to hit at the top of the batting order.  Last year, Gardner split time with Jacoby Ellsbury at the leadoff spot, slashing a 261/.351/.362 with 16 stolen bases.  Gardner still possesses one of the better hitter’s eyes in baseball, posting a 0.66 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  And the former center fielder showed he can still flash the leather, producing a 5.7 UZR/150 while winning his first gold glove.

In exchange, the Mariners part with minor league pitcher Zach Lee and outfielder Gareth Morgan. Lee, 25, a former first round draft pick and top 100 prospect, came to the Mariners in last year’s trade that sent Chris Taylor to the Dodgers and should be able to compete for a spot in the Yankees rotation.   Lee struggled some in 2016 going a combined 7-14 with a 6.14 ERA with Triple-A Oklahoma City and Tacoma.  His 2015 season with Oklahoma City was much more akin to his top prospect billing as he went 11-6 with a 2.70 ERA, 81 strikeouts and only 19 walks.  The 6’4, 220 pound Morgan, 20, was a second round pick in 2014 and possesses a quick bat and impressive power.  Morgan’s swing and miss tendencies have hurt his overall ability as a hitter. However, scouts believe should Morgan improve his contact ability, he profiles as a legitimate middle of the order bat.

With Gardner and Ozuna set in the corner outfield positions, the Mariners look to deal from their excess of outfielders, sending Seth Smith to the St. Louis Cardinals for reliever Trevor Rosenthal.   Smith, used primarily against right handed pitching, produced a .758 OPS with 16 homeruns in 2016.  Rosenthal served as the Cardinals closer in 2014 and 2015, averaging 46 saves and a 2.65 ERA.  But last season Rosenthal struggled with his command in save situations, issuing 14 walks in 16 innings and four blown saves to start the season.  Rosenthal eventually lost his closer role to Seung Hwan Oh who went on to save 19 games with a 1.92 ERA.  With Oh set to be Cardinal closer in 2017, and Smith and Rosenthal due to make roughly the same amount in salary ($7M), the two teams swap contracts allowing the Mariners to add another high octane arm to their bullpen, and the Cardinals filling their need for a productive outfielder.   

  • Trade UT Mike Freeman to the San Diego Padres for LHR Brad Hand. 

Last season’s deadline deal sending Mike Montgomery to the Chicago Cubs for Vogelbach left Vidal Nuno as the lone left hander in the Mariners’ bullpen. In his quest to find a replacement, Dipoto turns to San Diego left-hander Brad Hand.  Claimed off waivers from the Miami Marlins at the beginning of last season, Hand proceeded to go 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA for the Padres and limited lefty swingers to just a .125/.221/.200.   In exchange for Hand, the Mariners send the Padres utility infielder Mike Freeman who saw time at second base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions between stops in Arizona and Seattle last year.  With former Mariner Luis Sardinas in line to be the Padres opening day starter at shortstop, the addition of Freeman adds extra depth and insurance in case Sardinas struggles.

  • Sign 1B/OF Steve Pearce to a 2 year/$11M contract.

The Mariners’ search for a right-handed bat to pair with Vogelbach at first base brings them to a player we advocated for last year. As we profiled in our 2016 offseason plan, Pearce lacks the traditional homerun power normally desired from the position, but brings with him a productive bat that put up a .288/.374/.492 last season as well as a track record of success against left-handed pitching. For his career, Pearce owns an .852 OPS against southpaws, including a 1.028 OPS last season. In addition, Pearce’s ability to play both corner outfield positions as well as second and third base provides valuable versatility.  At the end of the season, Pearce underwent surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm and may not be ready by the beginning of the season. So health is a consideration for any team interested in his services. However, all indications are that Pearce will be fully recovered by the first month of the season.

Update: Dipoto filled his need for a right-handed bat at first base by trading minor league pitcher Paul Blackburn to the Oakland Athletics for Danny Valencia. Like Pearce, Valencia lacks the traditional power of a first baseman but is productive against left-handed pitching and can play first, second and third base, as well as both corner outfield positions. For his career, Valencia has produced an .873 OPS against left-handed pitching, including a .924 OPS in 2016. Valencia is third year arbitration eligible and projected to make $5.3M this season, so his acquisition most likely saves Dipoto from having to lock into a multi-year deal for a near-equivalent type of player in Pearce. 

  • Sign SP Jon Niese to a 1 year/$5M contract with incentives. 

With Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda all returning to the rotation, Dipoto reaches out to former Mets’ opening day starter, Jon Niese, in order to add depth to a rotation thinned by the trade of Walker to Miami. Niese, 30, struggled in 2016 going 8-7 with a 5.50 ERA with the Pirates and Mets before landing on the disabled list with a torn meniscus in his left knee.  Much of Niese’s struggles were attributed to a sudden spike in home runs allowed where he served up a career high 25 long balls.  Niese’s track record, though, shows much better as he averaged a 3.65 ERA and 174 innings pitched from 2012 to 2015.  Niese is projected to be healthy for the start of 2017, and should his 2016 simply be an outlier, the Mariners will have acquired a solid mid rotation arm that can eat up innings for well below market cost. It would also allow the hard throwing Miranda to be moved to the bullpen as the second left-handed reliever.

  • Sign C Dioner Navarro to a 1 year/$4M contract. 

Having spent most of 2016 at Tacoma fine tuning his hitting mechanics, Mike Zunino will enter spring training as the starting catcher. After being recalled in July, Zunino showed improved plate discipline (.318 OBP) and power (.470 SLG) to go along with his usual strong defense.  However, Zunino ended the season batting just .207 with an astonishing 33.9% strikeout rate.  Those latter two stats remain as red flags heading into the new season, and should compel the Mariners to seek a backup catcher capable of stepping into the everyday role should Zunino struggle.  Navarro played in 101 games last season, but hasn’t done much with the bat since he put up an .856 OPS in 2013.  However, he’s still a solid defender who brings with him a track record of durability and veteran leadership in the clubhouse.

Update: The Mariners acquired veteran backup catcher Carlos Ruiz from the Dodgers in exchange for Vidal Nuno.  Ruiz played in 62 games last season producing a .264/.365/.34, and, like Navarro, is a solid defender and bring with him strong leadership qualities.   

The Lineup

Position Players 

  1. Brett Gardner, LF
  2. Steve Pearce, 1B
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Marcel Ozuna, RF
  7. Mike Zunino, C
  8. Leonys Martin, CF
  9. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Bench

  1. Dioner Navarro, C
  2. Dan Vogelbach, INF
  3. Shawn O’Malley, UT
  4. Ben Gamel/Guillermo Heredia, OF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton (L)
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Jon Niese (L)
  5. Nate Karns/ Ariel Miranda (L)

Bullpen

  1. Brad Hand (L)
  2. Vidal Nuno (L)
  3. Dan Altavilla
  4. Evan Scribner
  5. Steve Cishek
  6. Trevor Rosenthal
  7. Edwin Diaz (CL)

Seattle Mariners Preview, Offseason Outlook

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The 2014 offseason is upon us, and now that the Mariners have solved their first order of business this offseason by hiring Lloyd McClendon as their new manager, GM Jack Zduriencik can now go to work addressing the team’s many on-field needs.

The most glaring holes are on offense.  Failing to address the Mariners’ lack of offense has been a constant under Zduriencik.  Last year, the Mariners scored 624 runs, fourth worst in the American League.  As bad as that seems, it was the first time since Zduriencik took over as GM that the Mariners did not produce the worst runs scored total in the league.  Finding areas to improve the offense should not be a problem, as the Mariners are currently lacking starting outfielders, a designated hitter, and a starting catcher.  On the pitching side of things, the Mariners had one of the best one-two starting duos in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  However, once past the top of the rotation, the Mariners struggled to get quality starts from the rest of their starters.   The Mariners relief corps was a mess in 2014, allowing the 2nd most runs, 2nd highest ERA, 2nd highest batting average against, 2nd highest WHIP, and 4th most blown saves in the league.

The offseason plan centers around the Mariners increasing payroll to $100 million for 2014.  With shrewd, aggressive moves in free agency and one bold trade, the Mariners can remake their lineup without surrendering much of their young prospects, all while staying under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Michael Saunders and INF/OF Stefen Romero to the Milwaukee Brewers for CF Carlos Gomez

There is a lot of talk of the Mariners going out and signing free agent Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7-year, $100 million plus mega deal to take over center field and bat leadoff.  As great as Ellsbury would look patrolling the outfield for the Mariners, it will take a huge commitment from Zduriencik to land the 30-year old outfielder.  Which raises the question as to whether or not the Mariners should make that kind of long term investment on a player about to enter the backside of their career?   By trading for Gomez, the Mariners would shore up their centerfield and leadoff needs with one of the games top up-and-coming players, and at a salary much less than what it would cost to obtain Ellsbury.  In return for Gomez, the Brewers would receive an elite, young, cost-controlled rotation arm, one of the organizations top outfield prospects, and two big league players with upside who could step right into the starting lineup.

Sign OF Carlos Beltran to a 2 year, $28 million contract

The Mariners continue their search for outfield help by signing the 37-year old Beltran to man right field.  Despite his age, Beltran is coming off a productive 2013 where he posted a .296/.339/.491 and 24 homeruns.

Sign C Carlos Ruiz to a 2 year, $15 million contract

If there was one thing the Mariners should have learned from last season, it was that top prospect Mike Zunino was nowhere close to being ready to hit big league pitching.  In 52 games after being rushed up from the minors, Zunino posted a .214/.290/.329.  Ruiz is coming off a disappointing 2013 where he put up a .268/.320/.368, but would still be an upgrade offensively as well as providing solid defense behind the plate.

Sign DH/1B Corey Hart to a 1 year, $7 million contract with incentives

Along with an Ellsbury signing, the other constant heard around the hot stove is the Mariners re-signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a multi-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million per year.  Morales is a solid hitter, but he lacks the ability to play any other position, and makes Jesus Montero look like Jesse Owens on the base paths.  Hart would be a cheaper alternative to Morales, with higher upside in almost every offensive category.  Health, of course, is the big question with Hart.  But if his leg is healed, Hart could provide big numbers in the cleanup spot.

Sign OF’s Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth to respective 2 year, $10 million contracts

Here, the Mariners fill their LF need via platoon.  Last season Davis posted a .319/.383/.474 against LHP while McLouth produced a .272/.342/.411 against RHP.  Both players are above average defenders, can play all three outfield positions, and are adept base runners.  While free agent Shin-Soo Choo will command upwards to $20 million per year, the Mariners would receive the same production from a Davis/McLouth platoon, but at a fraction of the cost.

Sign SP Phil Hughes to a 2 year, $15 million contract

With Joe Saunders’ option not being picked up, the Mariners are in search of a #3 starter to slot in behind Felix and Iwakuma and Hughes offers the best upside to fill that need.   Last year, Hughes was battered at Yankee Stadium allowing a .909 OPS against, 17 homeruns, and a 6.32 ERA.  But on the road, Hughes allowed a far better .735 OPS,  7 homeruns, and a 3.88 ERA.  Moving out of Yankee Stadium and into a the more pitcher friendly Safeco Field would likely see Hughes’ overall number regress closer to last season’s road numbers.  And unlike most of the rotation arms available, Hughes is on the right side of 30, turning only 28 during the upcoming season.

Resign OF/DH/1B Raul Ibanez to a 1 year, $5 million contract

Last season, Ibanez showed he still had plenty of offense left in the tank, belting 29 homeruns and putting up a .487 slugging percentage.  But his poor outfield defense nearly negated his offensive contributions.  With Smoak departed to Milwaukee as part of the Gomez deal, Ibanez would take over as the starting 1B where his defensive shortcomings would be limited.  Ibanez has played 1B before in his career, so the position would be familiar territory.  And if health permitted, the Mariners could have Hart take some innings at 1B with Ibanez moving to DH.

Re-sign RP Oliver Perez to a 2 year, $6 million contract

Perez had a solid 2014 season, limiting LH hitters to a .238 average, a .288 slugging percentage, while striking out nearly a third of the batters faced.  Perez, however, struggled in the walk department, issuing 14 free passes to left handed hitters, accounting for his .358 OBP against.

Starting Lineup

  1. Carlos Gomez (R) CF
  2. Brad Miller (L) SS
  3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
  4. Corey Hart (R) DH
  5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
  6. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
  7. Raul Ibanez (L) 1B
  8. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth LF
  9. Nick Franklin (S) 2B

Bench

  1. Mike Zunino (L) C
  2. Dustin Ackley (L) INF/OF
  3. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth OF
  4. Carlos Triunfel (R) INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez (R)
  2. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
  3. Phil Hughes (R)
  4. James Paxton (L)
  5. Erasmo Ramirez (R)

Relief

  1. Charlie Furbush (L)
  2. Stephen Pryor (R)
  3. Yoervis Medina (R)
  4. Carter Capps (R)
  5. Oliver Perez (L)
  6. Danny Farquhar (R)
  7. Tom Wilhelmsen (R)

Conclusion

With the additions of Gomez, Beltran, Davis and McClouth, the Mariners would field one of the top defensive outfields in the American League.   Hart would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter, while Ruiz would allow Zunino to move to the backup catching role where he could more comfortably ease into the starting catchers role.  Ibanez would provide a short term solution at 1B until D.J Peterson is ready to make the jump to the big leagues, or until the Mariners were able to find a more suitable long term solution.  The bench would be deep and flexible, with Ackley able to play the infield or the outfield, Triunfel able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and Davis and McLouth able to handle any of the outfield positions.  Hughes would serve as a legitimate #3 starter, while the back end of the rotation – relying on youngsters James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez – would be an upgrade over Brandon Maurer, Blake Beaven, and Aaron Harang.   With improved starting pitching, a return to form from closer Wilhelmsen, and full seasons from Medina and Farquhar, the bullpen should be an improvement over last year.

All said and done, total payroll for 2014 would come in at $98.9 million