Tag Archives: Seattle Mariners

Jerry Dipoto And Mariners Setting the Offseason Bar

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If there is one thing we can say about new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, it’s that he has a vision, and he’s not wasting any time turning that vision into a reality.

Fresh off completing his fourth trade of the offseason – acquiring shortstop Luis Sardinas from the Milwaukee Brewers for minor league outfielder Ramon Flores – and sixth overall transaction since the start to free agency on November 2nd, rumors of a possible Mariners-Marlins deal involving outfielder Marcell Ozuna heading to the Mariners in exchange for one of their young starting pitchers – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Roenis Elias or Nathan Karns – is lighting up the hot stove.

Now, we here at Mission Mariner don’t need to go into great detail about our thoughts of an Ozuna acquisition. We championed that idea over a year ago, and then again at last year’s trade deadline.  So it goes without saying that the idea of Ozuna patrolling the outfield is a strongly welcomed one, even if it means parting with Walker.   And before people take to their pitchforks over the thought of trading away Walker, let me just say that yes, Walker is a talent.  And, yes, Walker might be the next coming of Felix Hernandez.  But Ozuna is also a talent, and may be the next Carlos Gomez.  And when it comes to choosing between a future Felix Hernandez or a future Carlos Gomez, one is better off acquiring the player that will be playing every day rather than the player who will play just once every five days.

That said, should an Ozuna deal go down, it would highlight an incredible first month of roster-makeover activity from Dipoto.  It would punctuate a divergence from former GM Jack Zduriencik’s deliberate “wait out the market” approach.  Dipoto’s more aggressive “know what you want and go get it” style has already resulted in the acquisition of nine new players, at least seven of whom figure to be on the 25-man roster.  So far, Dipoto is this year’s A.J. Preller, but with a bit more restraint and pragmatism.  Consider:

In contrast, it was expected for Zduriencik not to get into the offseason game until the December Winter meetings or thereafter.   While this usually had no repercussion if one was targeting a blue chip free agent, it often meant that many of the second and third tier free agents – players often in the Mariners’ targeted price range – would be off the board by then.  This often resulted in ill-advised trades (see the Pineda deal), or signing low risk players who hopefully could provide high rewards (see Jack Cust).

Below is a list of Zduriencik’s first offseason transactions in each of his seven years as GM:

Of course, not all the deals were bad.  Kendrys Morales proved to be a productive hitter, and J.A. Happ provided solid innings as a middle of the rotation arm. The rest? A mixed bag mostly of disappointing returns.

More to the point, however, is the timetable of initial deals in contrast to what we are seeing now with Dipoto.

Zduriencik’s earliest notable offseason deal happened last season with the December 3rd trade of Michael Saunders, just over one month later than Dipoto’s first deal this offseason.  In 2012, it wasn’t until January 23rd – roughly two and one half months later than this year’s first transaction – when Zduriencik made his first notable offseason deal.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, for one, its clear Dipoto has a plan and he is quickly acting upon it.  Zduriencik might have had a plan as well, but, for whatever reason, he did not have the same urgency to put it into motion.  More importantly, though, by getting a jump on the offseason, Dipoto is getting the players he wants.  Conversely, it appeared most often that Zduriencik acquired players after most had already been picked through by the rest of baseball.  This seemingly was the result of Zduriencik choosing to wait out the market and then target players left over who could be signed at a lesser cost.

For seven years, that strategy never reaped much success.

Time will only tell if Dipoto’s “fast and furious” manner will provide the success he is looking for, and the results fans are expecting.  But whatever the outcome, Dipoto’s success or failure will rest with the players he wanted, not with players he didn’t.

And that, if anything, should be a welcomed change.

Seattle Mariners 2016 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Nearly a year after being pegged by most MLB experts as strong World Series contenders, the Mariners find themselves regrouping after a disappointing 76-86 season that resulted in the dismissal of General Manager, Jack Zduriencik.  To right the ship, President & Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mather turned the reigns over to ex-Los Angeles Angels GM, Jerry Dipoto, hoping his expertise in analytics and scouting will accomplish what Zduriencik was unable to do after seven (mostly) forgettable seasons: propel the Mariners into the post season.

Dipoto’s first step toward the playoffs was to revamp his coaching staff. Dipoto tapped Scott Servais to replace Lloyd McClendon as manager.  Dipoto then added Tim Bogar to serve as bench coach, Mel Stottlemyer Jr. as pitching coach, Manny Acta as third base coach, retained Edgar Martinez as hitting coach, and retained Chris Woodward as first base coach (Woodward has since turned down the offer in order to find a coaching position closer to his Florida home.)

Entering the offseason, Dipoto has made clear his priorities: more depth in his starting pitching, a stronger bullpen, more athletic defenders better suited to the dimensions of Safeco Field, and a better ability by hitters to get on base.  In other words, a roster completely opposite than what was previously put together under Zduriencik.

Of course, that won’t be an easy task as the Mariners are short on starting pitching, and possess an over-abundance of athletically-challenged, non-versatile, and strike-out prone position players better suited to the tidy confines of a Fenway Park rather than spacious Safeco Field.  To make matters worse, the minors fail to offer much in the way of MLB-ready pitching and position players who fit the Dipoto mold.  And with a to-do list that includes finding help at catcher, first base, all three outfield positions, a couple starting pitchers, and bullpen reinforcements, it’s no exaggeration to say Dipoto has his work cut out for him.

Which is most likely why Dipoto got an early jump to the offseason already by dealing shortstop Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for starting pitcher Nathan Karns, reliever C.J. Riefenhauser & minor league centerfielder, Boog Powell.  True to his vision, Dipoto’s first move as the Mariners GM saw him trade away a slow footed first baseman, a shortstop with glaring defensive shortcomings, and an inconsistent right handed reliever.  In return, the Mariners received a mid-rotation arm who immediately plugs into the starting rotation, left handed depth for the bullpen, and an athletic MLB-ready outfielder who can flash the leather and get on base.

Moving forward, Dipoto has much more work to do.  But as we previously wrote about, the right type of players are available in order to lift the Mariners into the playoffs.   Dipoto prefers acquiring players via trade rather than the free agent market.  But Dipoto simply does not have enough tradeable pieces to fix the Mariners through trade only.  To upgrade, Dipoto will have to dip into the free agent market.  Luckily, with a projected payroll of $130M (or more) for the 2016 season, Dipoto should have the necessary flexibility to acquire the resources he needs.

Without further ado…

  • Resign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a three year, $33M contract.
  • Resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year, $1M contract
  • Trade SP Roenis Elias, RP Tom Wilhelmsen, and 3B/OF Patrick Kivlehan to the New York Yankees for CF Brett Gardner.
  • Trade 1B Mark Trumbo to the Baltimore Orioles for RP Brian Matusz.
  • Sign RP Tyler Clippard to a three year, $18M contract
  • Sign OF Nori Aoki to a two year, $15M contract
  • Sign 1B Steve Pearce to a two year, $12M contract.
  • Sign C Chris Iannetta to a one year, $5M contract with an option year.
  • Sign RP Mark Lowe to a one year, $800K contract.

The Lineup

Position Players

  1. Brett Gardner, CF
  2. Nori Aoki, LF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Seth Smith, RF
  7. Steve Pearce, 1B
  8. Ketel Marte, SS
  9. Chris Iannetta, C

Bench

  1. Franklin Gutierrez, OF
  2. Chris Taylor, INF
  3. Jesus Sucre, C
  4. Jesus Montero, INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Taijuan Walker
  5. Nate Karns

Bullpen

  1. Tony Zych
  2. Mayckol Guaipe
  3. Mark Lowe
  4. Brian Matusz (L)
  5. Charlie Furbush (L)
  6. Carson Smith
  7. Tyler Clippard

Analysis

Here, Dipoto makes a series of moves to address his desire of making the Mariners a much deeper team both in starting pitching and athletic defenders who can get on base.  Last season the Mariners finished 11th in the American League in on-base percentage (OBP) and tallied the second highest strikeout totals.  The Mariners also produced the third worst ultimate zone rating (UZR ) in the American League with a -29.6. Worse, the Mariners finished dead last in defensive runs saved (DRS) with -60, while the next closest team was the White Sox with -39.

Dipoto has stated his first order of business is to resign Iwakuma for the rotation.  For the past three seasons, Iwakuma has teamed with Felix Hernandez to form one of the best pitching duos in the American League.  Iwakuma missed roughly two months last year due to a strained lat muscle, but dominated hitters after he returned by posting a 9-4 record in 17 starts, a 3.10 era, a .230 BA against, with 100 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 113.1 innings pitched.  Yes, Iwakuma will turn 35 in 2016, but even if he starts to decline from his former ace-like self, he will still serve as a valuable middle of the rotation arm.

After resigning Iwakuma, Dipoto must turn his attention to two major areas of need: center field and catcher.

By acquiring Gardner, Dipoto not only finds a capable center fielder, but someone who can leadoff and allow rookie Ketel Marte to move down in the batting order.  Last season, Gardner produced a .259/.343/.399 including a .291/.373/.462 up through the end of July.  However, Gardner slumped badly the final two months of the season, producing a combined .203/.288/.290 in August and September that tempered what had been one of the best offensive outputs of his career.  Defensively, Gardner spent most of 2015 in left field where he posted a -0.9 UZR and +1 DRS.  No longer the player he was back in 2008 and 2009, Gardner still has plenty of value (2.6 WAR last year) and a move back to his natural center field position may result in numbers closer to those of his last stint as an everyday center fielder (2013) where he posted a -0.5 UZR and a +6 DRS.  The Yankees may not be keen on trading away that type of production, but with Gardner mirroring the same skill-set as Jacoby Ellsbury, and still owed $39.5M over the next three years, moving Gardner to acquire needed pitching and payroll relief makes sense.  Of course, dealing away Elias who is cost controlled and who has shown success at the MLB level, along with a late-inning reliever in Wilhelmsen who has dominating stuff, may be dangerous territory for the Mariners.  But the addition of Karns to the rotation and the emergence of Carson Smith as a viable set-up man allows Dipoto the ability to move some pitching.

With Mike Zunino set to spend 2016 in the minors trying to reinvent himself as a hitter, the Mariners are in need an everyday catcher.  Dipoto’s first move as GM of the Angels back in 2011 was to acquire Iannetta from the Rockies, so a reunion of the two would make sense.  A solid defensive player who works well with pitchers, Iannetta suffered through a down offensive year in 2015 where he slashed a .188/.293/.335 in 92 games.  However, the previous three seasons, Iannetta averaged a .238/.357/.386.  Odds are that Iannetta will revert back to something closer to those numbers, but even if he doesn’t, his 2015 numbers would still be a fairly large upgrade over the .159/.205/.258 the Mariners received out of catcher position last year.

If there was one area last season that killed the Mariners, it was the regression of the bullpen, specifically its inability to hold leads.  Upgrading the bullpen will be a must.  Here, the Mariners bring in Clippard to bolster their late inning relief corps.  A proven set-up man, Clippard also has success closing out games, as seen by his 32 saves for the Nationals in 2012, and 19 saves this past season for the Athletics and Mets.  Depending on how the Mariners use Carson Smith, Clippard will prove invaluable in the late innings either by bridging the gap to the closer, or as the closer himself.

With first baseman Mark Trumbo symbolizing everything Dipoto is not looking for in a player, dealing him to a team looking for power makes sense.  With first baseman Chris Davis a free agent and sure to land a contract out of the Orioles’ price range, the Mariners are able to offer Trumbo as a replacement for Davis at a fraction of the cost.   A former starter, Matusz has spent the last few years pitching out of the Orioles bullpen.  With the Mariners, Matusz would continue to serve that role while also offering the ability to move to the starting rotation if needed.

To fill the void at first base, the Mariners turn to Steve Pearce. Pearce lacks the raw power of Trumbo, but he provides more versatility due to his ability to play a corner outfield position as well as at second or third base.  In addition, Pearce doesn’t come with all the strikeouts that Trumbo does, and he costs half as much.  The downside is that Pearce struggled to a .218/.289/.422 last year (which, really, isn’t that far off from what Trumbo would give you).   The good new, however, is that Pearce’s track record shows much better, as seen by his .292/.373/.556 in 2014, and his .261/.362/.420 in 2013.

Lowe’s return to the Mariners last year resulted in one of his best seasons before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.   In 36 innings pitched for the Mariners, Lowe posted an impressive 1.00 ERA while striking out 47 batters and walking just 11.  Lowe made it known he wouldn’t mind returning to the Mariners in 2016. Dipoto places a great deal of value on strikeout and walk ratios.  With those numbers, the Mariners would be smart to bring the veteran reliever back.

Revamping the outfield will be an important ask for Dipoto.  Seth Smith returns as the regular right fielder against right handed pitching.  Gutiérrez showed last year that he can still wield a potent bat when healthy, producing a .292/.354/.620 and 15 home runs primarily against left handed pitching. Gutiérrez wants to return, and should the Mariners believe he can stay healthy for a second consecutive season, he would, once again, serve as the ideal compliment to Smith in right field.

The Mariners round out their outfield with the underrated Aoki.  While not a power hitter, all Aoki did last year was put up a solid .287/.353/.380 along with a 3.6 UZR in left field.  With Dipoto looking for defense, athleticism, and the ability to get on base, he’ll find all three with Aoki.

Conclusion

With the additions of Iwakuma, Clippard, Matusz and Lowe, the Mariners keep their starting pitching in tact while upgrading their bullpen.  Clippard would provide a closer option, thereby allowing Carson Smith to set-up in the 7th or 8th innings, and Matusz would provide added insurance for the starting rotation.  Dealing Elias and Wilhelmsen could prove risky considering the issues that took place with the starting rotation and bullpen in 2015. But the addition of Gardner in center field and Aoki in left field drastically upgrades an outfield that has been plagued defensively by the likes of Trumbo, Raul Ibanez, Logan Morrison and Nelson Cruz in years past.   While far from flashy, Iannetta and Pearce provide steady play at catcher and first base, with Gutierrez providing right handed thump against left handed pitching for below market cost.

Offseason Primer:  As the Mariners Plan Ahead for 2016, They Should Look Back to 1999

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With the conclusion of the World Series, the quest to find players who can transform the Mariners into a playoff caliber team is officially under way for new General Manager, Jerry Dipoto. That task won’t be an easy one as Dipoto’s offseason “to-do” list includes finding a first baseman, catcher, left fielder, center fielder, front end starting pitcher, bullpen arm(s), and a closer.

Stepping into such a hot-seat environment is never an ideal beginning.  And it’s not just finding any old players to fill those spots, but, rather, players that will immediately propel the Mariners into late October. Unlike the Jack Zduriencik era, there will be no five-year plan to hide behind for Dipoto. There won’t be extra time afforded to see if prospect A, B and/or C pan out. With an ownership group and fan base expecting immediate results, Dipoto’s worth and effectiveness (and fate) as the Mariners’ GM will be tested without delay.  

But here’s the good news. It can be done. And has been done before.  And, coincidently, with nearly the exact same challenges, and accomplished by a newly hired Mariners GM.

The 1999 season was one that saw the Mariners go a disappointing 78-83, resulting in GM Woody Woodward’s “retirement.” The Mariners headed into the offseason not only needing to fill its GM vacancy, but to address its 25-man roster and, most importantly, deal with Ken Griffey Jr.’s demand to be traded to a team closer to his Florida home. With no GM, numerous roster holes to fill, and the impending loss of Seattle’s franchise icon, the stars were seemingly aligned for a disastrous offseason. 

Enter, Pat GIllick.

Much like Dipoto, Gillick inherited a team full of needs, namely: first base, third base, left field, center field, a top of the rotation starting pitcher, arms for the bullpen, and a closer.

Gillick’s first order of business was to handle the Griffey situation, and he did so by trading the future hall of famer to Cincinnati for centerfielder Mike Cameron, reliever/spot starter Brett Tomko, and minor leaguers Jake Meyer and Antonio Perez.

Gillick then went out and deftly signed a handful of free agents that would meet the rest of the team’s needs for the 2000 season and beyond.  

Gillick signed the sweet swinging John Olerud to play first base, and when the Baltimore Orioles hesitated in signing Aaron Sele, Gillick swooped in and lured the veteran to Seattle to be the ace of the pitching staff.

Gillick continued his mastery with the signings of Mark McLemore to play second base (thereby pushing David Bell to third base), Stan Javier to play left field, and south paw Arthur Rhodes to help bridge the gap to newly acquired closer, Kazuhiro Sasaki.

In one spectacular off-season makeover, Gillick filled four positional needs and revamped his starting rotation and bullpen, all the while creating a deep, versatile, balanced and athletic roster.

Sixteen years later, Dipoto and his staff find themselves facing the same challenges as Gillick, and will endeavor to find similar success. So far, Dipoto has said all the right things by emphasizing pitching and defense, and wanting to make the roster deeper, more athletic, and better suited to Safeco Field.  

As we’ll discuss further in the weeks to follow, the right type of players are available for Dipoto to pull off a 1999/2000 offseason redux. With payroll rumored to remain the same as last season, the $130 million dollar question is whether Dipoto can parlay his talk into productive results?

We will soon find out as Dipoto and company are now on the clock.   

A Second Chance At Marcell Ozuna? Mariners Should Take It.

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Last year about this time, we here at Mission Mariner offered our take on who Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should be targeting as the trade deadline neared.  That player was young Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna.

At the time, Ozuna was slashing a .276/.323/.463, 15 homeruns, a 117 wRC+, and putting up solid defense with a DRS of 9.  With highly touted Jake Marisnick knocking on the centerfield door, it was a prime opportunity to nab someone whom we felt could be the next Carlos Gomez.

But instead, the Mariners dealt for the Tiger’s Austin Jackson and, well, we all know how that has worked out.  Not that Jackson has been horrible, but he has been far from the player that he was when he was with the Tigers.  And with Jackson set to leave as a free agent at the end of the year, and with no MLB-ready prospects in the pipeline to take over, the Mariners will soon find themselves in the exact situation they were in heading into the 2014 season.

Luckily, sometimes life gives you second chances.  And for the Mariners, they may have a second chance at Ozuna.

On July 5th, Ozuna was sent down to the Marlins Triple A affiliate after falling into a slump that saw him go from a .289/.362/.439 on May 11th, to just a .249/.301/.337 just 48 games later. (a .224/.260/.273 over that 48 game stretch).  And recent reports have now surfaced indicating the Marlins may be willing to deal Ozuna for young pitching.

Around this time last year, we suggested a package of Taijuan Walker and D.J. Peterson for Ozuna.  With Ozuna’s recent struggles, perhaps a straight Walker for Ozuna could get the deal done?

While Ozuna’s recent struggles may warrant some reasonable questioning, the fact is that all young players go through slumps.  For most, it’s a natural progression. Ozuna has already had success at the MLB level, and it should be expected that he will continue to do so.  Last year, we also advocated that the Mariners look into the young and talented – yet struggling – Aaron Hicks.  All Hicks has done this year is bounce back by providing solid defense and a .299/.364/.437 as the Twins’ center fielder.

There’s no reason not to believe Ozuna won’t get back to the 3.7 WAR player that he was last year.

The other day we suggested that the best trade deadline move for the Mariners was to do nothing.  But second chances don’t come around often.  As such, Zduriencik would be a fool not to grab this one while he can.

As Trade Deadline Looms, Best Move for Mariners Is To Fire Jack Zduriencik

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How disappointing has the 2015 season been for the Seattle Mariners?  Think anticipation for the release of Star Wars Episode 1, The Phantom Menace.  Then think Jar Jar Binks.  Yes, that disappointing.

The Mariners currently sit with a 46-55 record, ten games behind the division leading Angels, and seven games behind the Twins for the second wild card.  Mathematically, the Mariners are still “in it.”  But by all reasonable measures, the season is over.

We all know what has proceeded to happen.  No one needs to recap what has taken place on the field by manager Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer.  And, yes, there is blame to go all around, from Robinson Cano’s lackluster play both in the field and at the plate, to Fernando Rodney’s inability to record outs.  But despite the poor play by almost everyone not named Nelson Cruz, the wheels for what can only be described as ghastly baseball were put in motion by GM Jack Zduriencik during the offseason and shouldn’t be surprising.   

Once again, another lost season can primarily be traced back to one thing: Zduriencik’s inability to properly construct a major league roster highlighted by his failure to make contingency plans should, say, someone like Mike Zunino fails to improve upon his lackluster 2014 season or, worse yet, regresses even further.

And in the case of Zunino, when a viable catcher was acquired in the form of Welington Castillo (who could take over for the struggling Zunino) Zduriencik did the unthinkable by flipping Castillo to Arizona for Mark Trumbo, thereby doubling down on the type of player that was already plaguing the Mariners: a slow-footed power hitter, with high strike out and low on-base ratios, and whose best position is 1B/DH but would be logging the majority of innings in the outfield.

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline just two days away, the question lingers whether the Mariners should be sellers or buyers?  The Mariners have a few viable trade chips at their disposal should they choose to sell, namely Hisashi Iwakuma, JA Happ, and Austin Jackson.  They also have a handful of players that they could use to acquire immediate help this season and reload for next in the form of James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Ketel Marte, D.J. Peterson, and Alex Jackson.

With the season virtually over, selling off assets would seem to make sense.  But with long-term deals given to Cruz, Cano, Seager and Hernandez in what has transformed into a “win now” game plan, there is an argument that acquiring players for a second half playoff push this season who can also be contributors for next season is the better move rather than acquiring B-level prospects who would not help in the foreseeable future.

Whichever road one believes is best to take, the bigger question to ask is whether Zduriencik can be trusted to execute a deal that would be to the Mariners benefit, whether for this season or for the future?  After seven years of botched trades, failing to develop a young core, and questionable free agent acquisitions, allowing Zduriencik another shot at “fixing” this team’s ailments very well could be the worst move of all.

Instead, a better move would be for the Mariners to stand pat, let the rest of the season play out, and then excuse Zduriencik from his GM duties at the conclusion of the season.  Then, to bring in someone with a high baseball pedigree to tweak this roster into a playoff contender.

After three lackluster prequels, even Disney was smart enough to remove George Lucas from the director’s chair and, instead, bring in the more capable and relevant JJ Abrams to lead the next cinematic installment of the Star Wars franchise.

After seven years of mostly disappointment, it’s well past time for the Mariners to do the same.  

Assessing the Mariners’ Offseason Additions

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This past week marked the first full squad workouts for the Mariners this Spring Training, and unless you live off the grid, or are still mired in a post-Super Bowl depression, you know by now that most baseball news outlets and experts have Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer playoff bound for 2015. In a rare moment of togetherness, the Mariners have traditionalists and statisticians both jumping on the Mariner bandwagon and picking them as the trendy team to make some noise this upcoming season.   For example, Fangraphs projects the Mariners being the best team in the American League in 2015. ESPN has them as the second best team.   Baseball Prospectus foresees the Mariners as the third best team. Those certainly are lofty predictions – the kind the Mariners haven’t seen since the days of Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella.

Much of the ballyhoo stems from an off season that – on paper –has propelled the Mariners from just-not-quite-good-enough to one of the best in the league. Heck, even Robinson Cano has caught the “on paper” bug. But are all the accolades deserved and well placed?

Below is a quick run through of the Mariners’ major off season acquisitions; the hope for each player as seen through the eyes of the Mariners; and the red flags that each player brings with them that the Mariners hope don’t rear their ugly head.

Nelson Cruz, DH. Signed to a 4/$57M contract.

The Hope: Cruz led the A.L. in homeruns last season with 40, and provided potent cleanup hitter production with a .859 OPS and a 140 OPS+.   That type of production compelled Jack Zduriencik to commit four years to the to-be 35 year old to bat behind Cano. Moving to the power suppressing chamber known as Safeco Field, Zduriencik and McClendon surely do not expect Cruz to replicate those numbers. But 25 homeruns and an .800 OPS would be a huge and welcomed upgrade at a position that yielded a paltry .190/.266/.301 from 16 players last season.

The Red Flag: The knock on Cruz has been that his career numbers are propelled by playing in hitter friendly ball parks. The criticism bears merit, especially when looking at his overall numbers in pitcher friendly A.L. West ballparks where Cruz owns a career .749 OPS at Safeco, a .571 OPS at Oakland Coliseum, and a .654 OPS at Angel Stadium.   Those stadiums will be home to roughly 60% of Cruz’s games in 2015, and if his numbers in those parks remain near his career averages, the Mariners will have spent a lot of money for production they could have received by merely moving Michael Saunders to DH.

Seth Smith, RF. Acquired from San Diego for Brandon Maurer  

The Hope: After the perplexing Saunders saga and trade, and then the inability to sign Melky Cabrera, Zduriencik acquired Smith to be the everyday right fielder against RHP. Smith is not the defender that Saunders is, but he ostensibly brings a few key upgrades to right field, namely the ability to stay healthy, a career .800 OPS, a career .839 OPS against RHP, and the proven ability to hit in a spacious ballpark (.841 OPS hitting in Petco Park last season).

The Red Flag: The past three seasons, Smith has displayed some fairly concerning first/second half splits. Consider the following:

2014 – First Half:  .895 OPS, Second half:  .685 OPS

2013 – First Half:  .742 OPS, Second Half:  .659 OPS

2012 – First Half:  .789 OPS, Second Half:  .702 OPS

This penchant for tailing-off in the second half should be worrisome and could end up being problematic for a team relying on Smith to produce in order to contend for a playoff spot.   Smith seemingly represents an upgrade over the .721 OPS they received out of right field a year ago, but it should be noted that Saunders’ second half numbers the past three years have trumped those of Smith. Which begs the question: would one rather have an above average defensive player who starts off slow, finishes strong, but ends the year with average overall numbers? Or a below average defensive player who gets off to a hot start, fades badly in the second half, but still finishes with above average overall numbers?  According to advanced metrics, it seems the answer would be the former, as Saunders’ rWAR the past three seasons matches that of Smith’s (5.8) but tops Smith’s fWAR during this same time (5.3 to 4.9).

Justin Ruggiano, OF. Acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Matt Brazis.

 The Hope: Ruggiano’s acquisition was premised on one main attribute: his ability to mash left handed pitching. Over his career, Ruggiano owns an .836 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners hope Ruggiano continues that trend helping to form a potent platoon with Smith in right field. Defensively, Ruggiano has been adequate across all three outfield positions and will backup Dustin Ackley in left and Austin Jackson in center.

The Red Flag. Zduriencik has gone on record stating that Ruggiano is not just a part-time platoon player, but someone who could play every day if needed. That’s a fairly big leap of faith for someone who has played more than 91 games in a season just once. And when he did (128 games in 2013) Ruggiano struggled greatly against RHP, slashing a .210/.283/.347 in 322 plate appearances.

Rickie Weeks, Utility. Signed to a 1/$2M contract.

 The Hope: Weeks brings another right handed bat to the Mariners, one that has produced a career .834 OPS against lefties including an .865 OPS last season. Although never having spent a moment in the outfield, Zduriencik and the Mariners envision Weeks platooning with Ackley in left field, as well as providing a right handed alternative at 3B, 2B and 1B if needed.

The Red Flag: Did we mention that Weeks has never played the outfield before during his career? In addition, Weeks will turn 33 in 2015 and has been nothing short of a below average to poor defensive second baseman the past three seasons due to his declining ability to get to balls put in play. Those are not good signs for someone who is expected to log most of his time in left field.

J.A. Happ, SP. Acquired from Toronto for Michael Saunders.    

The Hope: An obvious need for the Mariners during the offseason was acquiring starting pitching depth, and the Mariners believe Happ’s addition adds just that. Despite being used as a reliever at times last year, Happ managed 26 starts going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and averaged close to six innings per start.  Projected as this year’s fourth starter, the Mariners would be happy to receive that type of production from Happ again.

The Red Flag: Happ represents more of a replacement for the departed Chris Young than he does added depth. More concerning, however, is Happ’s injury history. Happ missed significant time in 2012 and 2013 due to injuries including a skull fracture suffered in 2013 after being struck in the head by a line drive. A sore back then landed Happ on the disabled list to the start of 2014. With the rotation likely featuring two inexperienced rookies (James Paxton and Taijuan Walker) coming off arm injuries, and their only other viable starter (Roenis Elias) also coming off arm injury, the Mariners will need Happ to stay healthy to provide “depth” and rotation stability.

Melky Cabrera Makes Little Sense for Mariners

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The Winter Meetings begin tomorrow in San Diego, CA and all Mariner eyes will be on GM Jack Zduriencik as he continues his push to land a right fielder. With Michael Saunders recently traded to Toronto for starting pitcher J.A. Happ, and newly acquired Nelson Cruz slated to spend the majority of time as the team’s designated hitter, Zduriencik will undoubtedly be working the floor incessantly in order to land a second “big” bat for his offense.

The Mariners have been tied to the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp and the Braves’ Justin Upton for most of the offseason. Both players would represent huge upgrades in right field, but both also come with lofty costs as Los Angeles and Atlanta are said to be asking for blue chip prospects in return, including top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker. Complicating matters even more, Upton would be a one-year rental as he is set to hit free agency as season’s end, and Kemp is owed $107M over the next five seasons.

With the Mariners seemingly not comfortable with the current asking prices for Kemp or Upton (recent reports indicate the Mariners turned down a trade of Walker for Kemp plus $53.5M) Zduriencik is now entertaining the idea of signing free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

On the surface, Cabrera makes some sense for the Mariners. His acquisition wouldn’t require the Mariners to part with Walker or James Paxton. And coming off a 2014 season where he slashed a .301/.351/.458 with 16 homeruns, 35 doubles and 3 triples, Cabrera would seemingly fill the Mariners’ need for a right fielder who can wield a productive bat.

However, with dealing Saunders away, the intent of the Mariners presumably is to acquire a player that will significantly improve the offensive production out of right field.

Yet, when examing the numbers closer, Cabrera doesn’t really represent much of an upgrade.

Last year, Cabrera produced a 126 OPS+, a 125 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .458 slugging percentage. Saunders produced a near identical 128 OPS+, 126 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and a .450 slugging percentage. Cabrera did put up a solid .808 OPS, but his OPS was buoyed by two huge months in March/April (.935 OPS) and July (.956 OPS) while the rest of the year consisted of fairly pedestrial monthly OPS’s of .735, .751, .714, and .402.   Saunders ended the season with a lower .791 OPS but was a tad more consistent with OPS’s of .834, .862, and .952 in May, July and September/October.  Saunders’ down months, however, fared worse than Cabrera’s, with OPS’s of .600 and .651 in March/ April and June.

In considering these numbers, we can not overlook the fact that Saunders played in only 78 games last season due to injury and perplexing decisions by manager Lloyd McClendon to keep him on the bench, stemming all the way back to spring training. With that in mind, if we are to look at the numbers from the past two seasons (i.e. Cabrera’s post PED years) Saunders comes out as the more valuable player, producing a 3.2 fWAR in 731 plate appearances to Cabrera’s 1.7 fWAR in 993 plate appearances.  And in looking at 2015, Saunders’ is projected by Steamer to produce a 1.8 fWAR compared to Cabrera’s projection of 1.7 fWAR.

Given those numbers, Cabrera’s asking price is steep; 5-years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $60M-$75M. But keeping in mind the recent contracts given to fellow right fielders Cruz (4 years, $57M) and Nick Markakis (4 years, $44M), such an asking price is not unreasonable.

While Cabrera would undoubtedly bring more expected reliability to the right field position, the numbers show that when on the field, Saunders was as good, or better, than Cabrera.  In addition, the Mariners reportedly would bat Cabrera second, which seems counter-productive considering the dire need for another run producer to hit in the middle of the batting order, as well as the fact the Mariners return Dustin Ackley who produced a .765 OPS serving as the Mariners #2 hitter from July 26th until the end of the season.

All of which begs the question: Is reliability worth paying Cabrera $12M-$15M per year over the next five years to be the Mariners #2 hitter when Saunders would have cost the Mariners merely $3M in arbitration?

If the Mariners are truly looking for a substantial upgrade in right field, Kemp or Upton should be the preferred targets.

Because when you consider that a player like Kemp – who posted an .800+ OPS in all but one month of the season last year, as well as a wRC+ of 140 – could be had for $10M per year over the next five years, even if it requires trading Walker, the idea of signing Cabrera for far more money in order to receive far less offensive production, over the exact same time span, is simply nonsensical.

Seattle Mariners 2015 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Question: How do the Mariners pick up six more wins?

That was the inquiry posed by ownership in the afterglow of missing the playoffs by one game.  Not the standard boiler plate spin from years past such as “we made positive strides forward” and “our young players received valuable experience.”

No hinting towards payroll cuts.

No, this time, it was about wins, and how to get more.  Specifically, it was about finding two more bats for the middle of the order and raising payroll to accomplish that goal.

How GM Jack Zduriencik goes about addressing the need for offense is another big question, with the answer predicated upon where payroll will be set.

For the purposes of our projected 25-man roster for 2015, we’re raising payroll to $125M.   Why $125M, you ask?  Simple. The Mariners can afford it.  Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano are the team’s only two long-term contracts.  And the revenues from their own Regional Sports Network and MLB’s profit sharing is undoubtedly enough to allow for upwards to a $150M payroll. But even without the RSN and profit sharing, the increase in attendance alone last season – roughly 300,000 – amounts to around $30M in additional revenue from gate and concession receipts.  The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game sporting a $107M payroll for the second half.  If the Mariners are truly intent about raising payroll in order to pick up more wins, it’s logical that payroll should increase from the $107M they ended the season with.  Of course, ownership’s intent could be to increase from the $91M they broke camp with.  Which one they will use as their starting point, no one really knows.  But ownership expressed a desire to pick up six more wins, and in terms of win values – where teams are paying roughly $6M per win – that would mean a bump of $36M, or a $127M or $143M payroll. For the sake of erroring on the safe side, we are using the season starting payroll as our launch point, and come in $2M under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, C John Hicks, and RP Tom Wilhelmsen to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and $30M.

The Skinny:  The Mariners are in the market for a “big” bat. Someone who can provide pop from the right side, play a corner outfield position, and hit cleanup behind Robinson Cano. The Dodgers are looking to clear room in their uber-crowded outfield, and have needs in their rotation, bullpen and at catcher. Can you say match made in heaven?

Trade OF Michael Saunders and SS Chris Taylor to the Mets for SP Dillon Gee and OF Matt den Dekker

The Skinny:  Saunders has mysteriously fallen out of favor with Zduriencik, Brad Miller and  Taylor are redundant, and the Mariners need a mid-rotation arm and fourth outfielder.  The Met’s desire ground ball and strikeout type pitchers, both of which Gee is not, seek a young shortstop and corner outfielder with pop, and have an excess of young center fielders. The stars seem aligned for a Mariners-Mets deal.

Sign DH/1B Billy Butler to a 3/$24M contract

The Skinny: Every year Zduriencik looks into trading for Butler. And every year the Royals hang on to him. Not this year. The Royals declined Butler’s $12.5M option, casting him out into the free agency pool ripe for Zduriencik’s picking.

Sign SP/RP Chris Capuano to a 1/$2M contract

The Skinny: Last season the Mariners learned the hard way that you shouldn’t  rely on and expect untested rookies and reclamation projects to pitch a full season. Lesson learned.   Capuano serves as the perfect safety net: a reliable arm that can pitch out of the bullpen and transition seemlessly into the rotation if needed.

Sign 3B Kyle Seager to a 5/$60 extension with an option for a sixth year.

The Skinny: Seager has emerged as the game’s top all-around third basemen not named Beltre. And he’s just entering his prime.  Locking him up for the foreseeable future is a no-brainer.

The Lineup

Position Players
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Matt Kemp, RF
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Billy Butler, DH
7. Logan Morrison, 1B
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller, SS

Bench
1. Matt den Dekker, OF
2. Willie Bloomquist, INF/OF
3. Jesus Sucre, C
4. Carlos Rivera, INF

Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Hisashi Iwakuma
3. Dillon Gee
4. James Paxton
5. Roenis Elias

Bullpen
1. Charlie Furbush (L)
2. Chris Capuano (L)
3. Brandon Maurer
4. Danny Farquhar
5. Yoervis Medina
6. Dominic Leone
7. Fernando Rodney

Analysis

The Mariners need offense, and they need a big time run producer to hit behind Robinson Cano.  Kemp fills that need in every way: a cleanup hitter with right handed power, capable of slotting into a corner outfield position, and a proven track record against mlb pitching. Yes, trading away one of the top pitching prospects in baseball may seem steep. Let alone the team’s most effective reliever from last season as well as the Mariners’ top mlb-ready catching prospect. But the key to this deal is getting the Dodgers to kick in enough money to get Kemp’s annual average salary down to $15M. And the Dodgers aren’t going to do that for nothing. While Walker, Hicks and Wilhelmsen seem like a lot to give up, all three come from organizational positions of strength, thereby minimizing their ill-effect on depth. Yes, there is some risk with Kemp due to his injury history and remaining length of contract. But Kemp’s relatively young age (just turned 30 in September) and last season’s return to form (.287/.346/.506 and 25 home runs) should relieve any anxiety as to whether or not Kemp is worth acquiring. That said, the Dodgers have made no firm indication they are still in the market of trading one of their most productive hitters. But with Andrew Friedman now in control of things, you can bet the Dodgers will be looking to trade payroll for prospects. And if the Dodgers are intent on retaining Hanley Ramirez, freeing up $75M over the next five years may help in accomplishing that.

The next step is to find a replacement for Walker, ideally someone who can slot behind Hernandez and Iwakuma and give the team 200 innings.   With Citi Field being reconfigured into a more hitter friendly park, reports are that Gee and his fly ball pitching ways no longer fit in with the Mets’ rotation plans.  We profiled Gee last year as a target for the Mariners after he went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA, tossed 199 innings, and struck out 142 batters while walking only 47.   Gee struggled in 2014 after suffering a lat injury, but is again healthy and should benefit greatly from the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco.  The Mets continue to seek a young shortstop with offensive upside whom they can plug into their everyday lineup, as well as a right fielder with some power.  Saunders’ .800+ OPS potential should be enticing and could be a perfect fit in right field for the Mets.  And Taylor, while not projected to be a star, would certainly meet their wish for a young shortstop with plus potential.  The Mets may prefer Brad Miller, who some feel projects higher both offensively and defensively.  If that was the case, swapping out Taylor for Miller shouldn’t be a deal breaker.  With Ketel Marte perhaps just a year away, both Miller and Taylor are expendable.   As for den Dekker, the emergence of Juan Lagares has blocked his path to centerfield, relegating den Dekker, instead, to backup duties. A solid defender and line drive hitter, den Dekker lacks the power to fulfill the Mets’ everyday corner outfielder need.  And with Kirk Nieuwenhuis on the roster, the Mets already have a left handed hitting outfielder to backup left, center and right fields. With his ability to also play all three outfield positions, den Dekkar would provide the Mariners with an ideal left handed compliment in center and right fields, as well as someone who could step into the everyday lineup should someone go down with injury.

Last season, the Mariners produced just a .190/.266/.301 from their designated hitter position.  Unquestionably, Zduriencik will be looking for an upgrade here.  And possibly a big one.  Victor Martinez seems to be the perfect candidate.  But Martinez is reportedly looking for a deal starting in the three year, $15M per season range, and is attached to a compensation pick.  The Mariners would probably have to guarantee at least four years and upwards to $20M per year to land Martinez, not to mention surrending this years first round draft pick to the Tigers.   And that is a pretty risky commitment to give for someone who will be 36 at the start of the season.  Another option is Cuban sensation Yasmany Tomas. Only 24, Tomas has big power from the right side, and can also play a corner outfield position.  But Tomas is looking to break the seven year, $72.5M deal signed last season by fellow county man Rusney Castillo, and that price is probably too rich for the Mariners considering Tomas has never faced mlb pitching.

As for Butler, there’s no denying he had a down year in 2014. Butler produced just a .271/.323/.379, managed only nine home runs, and struggled against right handed pitching with a .255/.301/.352. But Butler’s BABIP against right handed pitching of .292 was well below his career mark of .322, suggesting he’s a candidate to return to something closer to his career norm. And despite his overall drop in offensive production, Butler still mashed lefties to the tune of .321/.387/.460. Butler is young (28), healthy, and provides power from the right side. He fills the void at DH, can take some innings at 1B, isn’t attached to a compensation pick, and should come at a much more reasonable price than either Martinez or Tomas.  For the Mariners, that checks all the boxes on the wish list.

If there was one area that hurt the Mariners playoff push more than anything season last year, it was a lack of pitching depth.  During the last part of the season, the Mariners’ starting rotation simply fell apart.  Hernandez fell into a three game slump, going 0-2, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and a .948 OPS against.  Iwakuma went winless during a four game stretch, allowing 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings.   And Roenis Elias simply ran out of gas and had to be shut down. Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer tried to salvage a sinking rotation, but both were erratic and ineffective. With playoff hopes teetering, set-up man Tom Wilhelmsen took the ball on the second to last game of the season hoping to give the Mariners a much needed quality start.  He lasted only two innings.  As a result, Zduriencik has stated acquiring greater pitching depth will be an importance this offseason.  The Mariners will almost certainly try to find some veteran reclamation arms that they can stash in Tacoma. But another option that should be explored is finding a reliable arm that can swing between the bullpen and rotation. Over the past two seasons, Capuano has 32 starts and 32 relief appearances to his credit. In 2014, Capuano pitched out of the pen for Red Sox, and then moved into the Yankees’ starting rotation after being dealt at the trade deadline.

In 2014, Seager slashed a .268/.334/.454, hit 25 home runs, and won his first Gold Glove award. Of all the hoopla over Zduriencik’s ability to evaluate and acquire young talent, Seager is the only position player drafted during the Zduriencik era to have established themselves as a productive everyday player.  With free agency looming in 2018 and offensive production becoming a rare premium, locking up Seager should be near the top of Zduriencik’s to-do list.  A five year, $60M contract with an option for a sixth year should be welcomed with open arms. The yearly payout: $5M; $8M; $12M; $17M; $18M; $21M option.

Conclusion

With the additions of Kemp and Butler to join Cano and Seager, the Mariners would dramatically upgrade their middle of the batting order.  Kemp would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter behind Cano, and Butler would be a solid hitter to slot behind Seager.  Dealing Walker to the Dodgers would be a hard and unpopular decision, but with Hernandez and Iwakuma again at the top of the rotation, and the emergence of Paxton and Elias to anchor the back end, Gee would fill the need for a #3 pitcher who can eat innings.   Capuano would provide flexibility and depth for the pitching staff, as would den Dekker for the outfield.   The bench would be deep and flexible, with Bloomquist able to play the infield or outfield, Rivera able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and den Dekkar able to fill in at any  outfield position.

Mariners’ Ownership Ready to Spend for Offense

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If anyone is wondering where the Mariners fell short in 2014, look no further than this.

The Seattle Mariners lost 17 games in which the other team scored two runs or less.  Of those 17 losses, the Mariners were shut out 11 times.  Of those 11 shut outs, the Mariners lost five games where the opposing team scored just once.

Those numbers should haunt GM Jack Zduriencik all off season.  They should cause Zduriencik to wake up in the middle of the night, covered in a cold sweat, wondering what could have been had he constructed a mere below average offense rather than the horrid one that took the field game in and game out.  The haunt of a “what if” had Zduriencik addressed, say, the teams need in center field rather than handing the position on a silver platter to rookie Abraham Almonte.   Or, perhaps, acquired one more productive bat to be inserted into a corner outfield position.   Maybe played a healthy Michael Saunders every day during the first part of the season rather than relegating him to fifth outfielder duties.  Or – and this one hurts the most – had Zduriencik not allowed ownership to squash the Nelson Cruz deal?

Ok, that last one probably was out of Zduriencik’s control, but you get the idea.

Ostensibly, any one of the above-mentioned could have resulted in just one more run scored, and thus one more win.  Feasibly, any one of the above-mentioned could have resulted in the Mariners first playoff appearance since 2001.

With the off season now upon us, clearly offense is the priority.  And from all accounts, this time around, Zduriencik, manager Lloyd McClendon, and team President and Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mathers all understand the importance of acquiring middle of the order run producers.

At least they say they do.

Zduriencik and McClendon are already on record stating two bats will be sought in the off season.  And Mathers is on record stating payroll will be increased.  So far, all the right things are being said by all the right people.  But how do we know this isn’t just more hot air being exhausted like in seasons past?  We don’t.

Except, consider this.

The other week I was frequenting my friend’s bar where, low and behold, Mariners’ “majority” minority owner Chris Larson happened to be taking in a few drinks.  Long story short, my buddy asked Larson straight up, “What are the Mariners going to do to address the offense?”

Reciprocating the candor of the question posed, Larson responded, “Don’t worry, ownership is prepared to bring in two big bats.”

That’s right, not one, but two big bats.

I don’t know about you, but hearing this straight from an owner’s mouth not only brought about a jolt of adrenaline and excitement for the upcoming season, but seemingly legitimized everything that’s been reported concerning the Mariners’ off season plans.

I mean, you have the general manager and manager both saying they want two bats to hit in the middle of the order.  You have the team’s President and Chief Operating Office saying the organization is going to raise payroll to accommodate the off season needs.  And now you have a majority owner saying the ownership group is prepared to spend the necessary means to carry out the Zduriencik’s off season wish list.

If my math skills are still up to par, all the players necessary to landing two big bats seem to be in-sync and on the same page.  And that bodes well heading into the off season.  Because whether two bats are acquired via free agency or trade, the Mariners will need to act quickly considering the dearth of quality hitters available in this year’s free agent class coupled with the number of teams looking to upgrade offensively.  And acting quickly during the off season has been something Zduriencik and the Mariners have not been very good at.  Rather, their modus operandi has been to proceed with caution, leisurely measuring each and every possibility to the point where when a decision is finally ready to be made, all that is left are the free agent bar flys.

If the Mariners are indeed planning on being major players in the off season, then they will be tied to such free agents as Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis, and Yasmany Tomas.  Possible trades for players like Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Starling Marte, Billy Butler or Justin Upton will also fill the rumor mill.

These are all distinct possibilities, and we will discuss these options in the days to follow.  But for now, the wheels seem to be in motion  for a consequential off season.

 

 

 

 

Mariners on Verge of Playoffs, McClendon Possibly Manager of Year

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With one game remaining in the regular season, the Mariners find themselves still in the fight for playoff contention.  With last night’s 2-1 extra inning victory over the Anaheim Angels, coupled with the Oakland Athletics’ 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers, Seattle sits just one game behind the A’s for the second wild card.  A Seattle win today along with an Oakland loss will force a one game playoff between the two teams to see which one goes on to play the Kansas City Royals in the wild card loser-out game.

What once looked like a plausible – perhaps even likely -playoff appearance by a red hot Mariners club fresh off a 17-10 August, quickly dissipated as Seattle sputtered down the stretch to a 13-13 September.  But after losing 2 of 3 games from the Houston Astros and then the first 3 of 4 games against the Toronto Blue Jays last week – all but eliminating any hope of the playoffs – the Mariners rattled off three straight wins to keep alive their mathematical chance of extending their season into October.

And despite his team fading down the stretch faster than bleach on denim, manager Lloyd McClendon is garnering Manager of the Year recognition, with some forecasting that he may, in fact, even win it.

And why not?  All McClendon has done is guide the Mariners to an 86-75 record, a 17 game improvement in the win column from just a year ago.  Which, to say, is pretty remarkable considering the Mariners entered the season with only two proven starting pitchers, a questionable bullpen, and a lineup void of a legitimate center fielder, a leadoff hitter, and one more needed middle of the order bat to compliment  Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.   And if that wasn’t enough, starting pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, along with sluggers Corey Hart and Logan Morrison, all spent significant time on the disabled list during the early part of the year.

And yet, despite all the setbacks, the Mariners find themselves on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

But this isn’t to say McClendon hasn’t made mistakes along the way.  Like all managers, gaffes have occurred.  But McClendon’s miscues have not just been of the customary kind that you find all managers guilty of.  They haven’t merely been of the “leaving a pitching in one batter too long” variety, or letting a hitter swing away rather than lay down a sacrifice bunt.   Rather, they’ve been odd and unorthodox decisions that – in a tight wild card race – can make the difference between a team watching the playoffs from the couch rather than from the field.

We’ve previously covered most of the questionable early season decisions by McClendon, namely: giving rookie Abraham Almonte the starting center field and lead off jobs at the start of Spring Training, believing Justin Smoak was the next coming of Mark Grace at first base, and choosing to play Logan Morrison over Michael Saunders in right field. The negligible offensive production and diminished defensive capabilities resulting from those decisions would contribute to the team’s tepid 11-14 start.

After displacing Almonte with fellow rookie James Jones in center field, and replacing Smoak at first base with Morrison, the Mariners would find their groove, going 62-48 over the next four months and inserting themselves into the playoff conversation.  McClendon was quick to deflect all credit to his players, repeatedly describing his managerial style as a hands-off, game by game “players make out the lineup card” approach.

But come the middle of August, that style would change.  Come mid August, McClendon would begin to tinker.

The hands-off approach that worked miracles to get the Mariners into playoff contention suddenly was replaced by “managing for October,” McClendon’s plan of resting his starting pitchers by skipping starts and using spot-starters to fill in.   Despite admitting that juggling his rotation in this manner could have an ill-effect on the routines of his pitchers, McClendon was adamant doing so would keep his pitchers fresh for the end of September stretch drive, and (as a side benefit) align his pitchers accordingly for the playoffs.

Now, rotation maneuvering of this kind is not uncommon, and is usually a smart thing to do.  That is, a smart thing to do for teams already having secured a spot in the playoffs.  But with nearly six weeks of the season remaining and both wild cards still up for grabs between five teams, managing with an eye fixated so far down the road is, well, puzzling.  Some might even say it breaks one of the basic tenets of managing.

At first, the plan seemed to work.  McClendon pushed back Hernandez to face the wild card contending Blue Jays on August 11th, and used Erasmo Ramirez to spot-start against the White Sox.  Despite a shaky four innings from Ramirez, the Mariners would defeat Chicago, and Hernandez would dominate Toronto and spark a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays.

But McClendon’s fears about the extra days rest began to bear fruit.

Despite the win, Hernandez would fall into a slump over his next three starts, going 0-2, allowing 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings, and a .948 OPS against.

Hernandez’s struggles didn’t stop McClendon from juggling his rotation once more, pushing Hernandez back to face the Nationals on August 29th and, again, using Ramirez to spot-start against the Rangers.   Unlike before, however, Seattle would lose both games.  Compounding matters, Chris Young would labor with his release point in the proceeding series opener against the Athletics, lasting less than an inning in route to a 6-1 loss, and Iwakuma would go winless in his next four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings and attributing his poor pitching to feeling “off-balance” with his mechanics.

McClendon’s tinkering wasn’t just limited to his starting rotation.  The September call-ups saw the return of Smoak, Jones, and Stefan Romero to the big leagues.  All three players had been demoted to Class AAA earlier in the season: Smoak for losing his starting job to Morrison, and rookies Romero and Jones for showing neither was ready to face major league pitching.  Yet, shortly after being recalled, Smoak, Jones and Romero would find themselves in the starting lineup, raising eye brows among many as to how three players previously not worthy enough to be on the 25-man roster were now starting in the heat of the playoff chase.  The decision failed to pay dividends as all three remained offensive liabilities, and an offense that had scored an average of 4.6 runs per game in August slipped to 3.5 runs per game in September.

As Bert Lance famously stated, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  And that probably would have been sage advice for McClendon to have followed with merely 6 weeks remaining in the season and his team playing its best baseball of the season.  Arguably, several of McClendon’s atypical decisions cost his team wins they could not afford to lose.

But McClendon has guided his team beyond expectations, and the fact the Mariners remain in contention on the final day of the season speaks volumes towards the job he has done in his first year at the helm.   At the same time, however, his unorthodox managing – especially down the stretch – may have cost his team a chance at playing in October.  And that, rightfully so or not, may prevent McClendon from taking home the hardware for Manager of the Year.