Tag Archives: Seattle Mariners

What’s Next for the Seattle Mariners?

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It’s been five weeks since the Mariners went on an acquisition binge by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and trading for Logan Morrison all within a span of five days.  But since that bender, all has gone relatively silent from GM Jack Zduriencik, raising question as to whether the Mariners have exhausted their available offseason funds to make further significant moves, or are simply waiting for their next opportunity to strike?  The question looms large, as the Mariners – despite adding Cano, Hart and Morrison – find themselves still needing to address several weak points in their lineup.

The Mariners entered the offseason primarily in want of an everyday center fielder, a designated hitter, a backup catcher, and a #3 pitcher for the rotation.  Ideally, they also sought an everyday power hitting corner outfielder, and help in the bullpen.  Depending on how Hart and Morrison are used, the designated hitter position could be filled.  The Mariners reportedly signed veteran catcher John Buck to a one year deal to be the backup to Mike Zunino.  But despite these moves, the Mariners still find themselves with a fairly large to-do list.

A few big name free agents still remain on the market who could help the Mariners in 2014.   Designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, right fielder Nelson Cruz, starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka, and relief pitchers Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney are all available, would fill needs, but each would come at a fairly significant price.   If the Mariners truly are strapped for cash, and with a mostly depleted free agent market limiting their options, the Mariners will presumably have to rely on trades if they want to further upgrade their lineup.

Let’s take a look at where the Mariners stand in regard to their remaining areas of concern.

Centerfield:  Rumor is that Zduriencik and company are looking to Michael Saunders to be their everyday center fielder.  Back in 2011, Saunders appeared to be on his way to establishing himself as an above average defensive center fielder, putting up a 3.2 UZR in 44 games.  But since then, his defense has regressed as a starter.  In 2012, Saunders’ UZR as a center fielder fell to -3.7.   Last year it fell even further, to -9.6.   Not exactly what you want in a center fielder.  Perhaps the Mariners believe Saunders will rebound.  That certainly could happen. But it’s difficult to imagine any ball club, aware of such a downward defensive trend, being comfortable heading into the season with that type of uncertainty at one of their most important defensive positions, with no real backup plan.

The Mariners did resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year deal.   But injury has now reduced the former starting center fielder to being a fourth outfielder only capable of playing three – maybe four – times a week, if lucky.   During his on-the-job training last season, Dustin Ackley showed the ability to play centerfield on a regular basis, but in his limited time there (48 games) he proved to be less than good, producing a -6.3 UZR.  Ackley should improve as he acquires more innings and becomes more comfortable roaming the outfield.  The question, however, is by how much, and how quickly?  And can the Mariners afford to gamble on Ackley developing into an adequate center fielder should that need arise?

If all else fails, Abraham Almonte is another option for the Mariners in centerfield.  In his first call-up to the bigs last season after being acquired via trade with the Yankees, Almonte showed speed and promise in limited action, producing a -1.2 UZR in 25 games.  But, like Ackley, it is unknown whether Almonte can handle the grind of playing on a regular basis.

Designated Hitter: Corey Hart would appear to be the new designated hitter, the position best suited for him.  But Zduriencik has gone on record stating the intention is for Hart to see time in right field.  Hart running around the outfield would be a precarious sight for anyone’s eyes.   Besides his less than desired defensive prowess (a career -15.0 UZR in RF), Hart sat out the entire 2013 season recovering from injuries to both knees.  Although now deemed healthy, it’s absolutely impossible to know how Hart will hold up to playing on a regular basis, which is why the Mariners signed Hart to an incentive laden contract.

If Hart does find himself in right field, the Mariners could use Logan Morrison at designated hitter.  Morrison is best suited as a designated hitter or first baseman, but, like Hart, Zduriencik has said that he, too, will see time in the outfield.  Could we see Morrison and Hart roaming the corner outfield positions at the same time?  One would hope not, but if the Mariners can have Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse starting in the outfield together, then anything is possible.

Jesus Montero, if he isn’t traded, will surely be given a chance to win a roster spot this coming season.  How big of a chance remains to be seen.  After being demoted to the minors last year, and serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, questions linger whether the catcher-now-turned-designated hitter/first baseman can find that stroke that made him one of the top all-around hitting prospects in baseball?  He’ll have to if Montero wants to find his way back onto the Mariners 25-man roster.  However, Montero’s only realistic hope of making the team is as the starting designated hitter.  With Hart, Morrison, and Smoak sure to be on the opening day roster, the Mariners do not have room for a reserve player whose utility is limited to designated hitter and first base.

Starting Pitching:  At the top of their rotation, the Mariners boast two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  Last season, Hernandez and Iwakuma combined to go 26-16 with a 2.84 ERA.  At the bottom of the rotation, the Mariners have two of baseball’s best mlb-ready pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  During their late season call-up last year, Walker and Paxton combined to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA.  The problem for the Mariners is they have nothing in between.  As it stands now, the starting rotation consists of Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top, Walker and Paxton rounding out the bottom, and under achieving holdovers Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi and Brandon Maurer fighting it out for the #3 spot. As much talent as Walker and Paxton bring to the table, Zduriencik does not want to head into the season with three-fifths of his rotation relying heavily on inexperienced and untested arms.   And with Walker and Paxton most likely being limited to somewhere between 150-170 innings each in order to protect their arms in their first full season at the big league level, the Mariners lack the pitching depth when the time comes to shut them down for the year.

The acquisition of a solid #3 pitcher would allow Walker and Paxton to comfortably fill out the last two rotation spots, with Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan and/or Noesi able to step in if either struggle or reach their innings limit.  As it stands, the Mariners have several options that they could go in to acquire that mid rotation arm.  As mentioned, the Mariners could dip into free agency and sign Garza, Santana or Jimenez (Santana and Jimenez have draft pick compensation attached to them) or enter the Tanaka sweepstakes.  Of course, bringing aboard any of those players would take a financial commitment.  David Price, whom the Mariners have been linked to quite frequently this offseason, could come via trade with the Rays, giving the Mariners one of the best rotations in baseball.  Price is due to only make $10MM this season, is under team control until 2016, but would cost the Mariners a couple of top prospects, including one of Walker or Paxton.  Others like Bronson Arroyo and Chris Capuano are available, although at this stage in their respective careers, they both are closer to being #5 starters than they are solid #3 starters.

Bullpen:  Last season, Mariners relievers posted a 4.59 ERA, good enough to finish 29th in all of baseball.  They also blew 23 save opportunities, seventh worst in all of baseball.  Those two statistics alone stand as reason enough that upgrading the bullpen for 2014 is desperately needed.  Despite solid performances from Charlie Furbush (3.74 ERA), Oliver Perez (3.73 ERA) Yoervis Medina (2.91 ERA) and Danny Farquhar (2.23 ERA, 16 saves in the second half), the rest of the relievers –  Beavan (5.28 ERA), Noesi (7.83 ERA), Tom Wilhelmsen (4.12 ERA), Lucas Luetge (4.86 ERA), Bobby LaFromboise (5.91 ERA), and Carter Capps (5.49 ERA) – all proved to be ineffective.  Adding to the need to bring in help, Capps was traded this offseason to the Rays in exchange for Morrison, Perez elected to explore free agency, and hard throwing set-up man, Stephen Pryor, is still recovering from torn lat and triceps injuries that saw him miss most of last season.  Yet, despite the abuse that was taken by Mariners relievers in 2013, Zduriencik has yet to make any improvements.  The addition of Balfour or Rodney – both capable of serving as closers – would strengthen a questionable bullpen, but there are no indications that Zduriencik is interested in investing the type of money needed to secure the services of either player. If the Mariners elect to stand pat, Zduriencik will most likely be banking on Farquhar continuing to perform in the closers role as he did in the second half of last season, that Pryor will be healthy and able to hold down the set-up role, Wilhelmsen will return to form, and one of Luetge or LaFromboise will emerge as a competent second left-handed specialist to go with Furbush.

Corner Outfielder:  The Mariners have let it be known that they would like to add a power hitting outfielder into the mix for 2014.  But if the season were to begin today, the probable starting lineup would consist of Ackley in left field, Saunders in center field and either Hart or Morrison in right field.  Assuming Hart would begin the season at designated hitter, an Ackley/Saunders/Morrison outfield doesn’t quite provide that sought after power.  The Mariners have been linked to free agent Nelson Cruz for most of the offseason, with rumors being that Cruz already turned down a five-year, $75MM contract from the Mariners. Signing Cruz would be the easiest solution towards fulfilling the power corner outfield void, but Cruz’s suspect defense and the fact he is coming off a PED suspension, makes his acquisition risky and possibly unwise.  The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is another possibility the Mariners could explore.  Like Cruz, Ethier is a middle-of-the-order bat.  But unlike Cruz, Ethier would provide solid defense in right field.  But Ethier carries with him a $15MM annual salary, in addition to the fact the Mariners would probably have to give up a top prospect in return.  Both of those factors could make a trade of this kind unlikely for Zduriencik.  All things considered, the most plausible acquisition (not necessarily the best, mind you) would be the Mariners continuing to wait out the Morales market, and then signing him to a “qualifying offer-reduced” two or three-year deal at around $10MM per year to be the designated hitter, and then use the power hitting Hart as the regular right fielder.  Of course, as stated earlier, Hart running around the outfield on two bad knees is just a season-ending injury waiting to happen.

Mariners Add Hart & Morrison, Position Themselves To Go After Carlos Gomez

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With Day 3 of the MLB Winter Meetings concluded, the Mariners added two more bats to their revamped lineup.  First, Jack Zduriencik signed Corey Hart to a guaranteed one-year, 6M contract with additional incentives that could push the deal to 13M.  Hart will take over the DH duties as well and spend time in the outfield and possibly at 1B.  Within an hour after signing Hart, reliever Carter Capps was sent packing to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Logan Morrison.  Morrison will replace Justin Smoak as the starting 1B.

Hart missed all of 2013 after having surgery on both knees, but he possesses big time power when healthy.  In 2012, he slashed a .270/.334/.507 to go along with 30 homeruns. From 2010 to 2012, Hart averaged a slash line of .279/.343/.514 and 29 homeruns.  That kind of production should slot nicely right behind newly acquired Robinson Cano, giving the Mariners two potent bats for the middle of their order.

Morrison was a highly rated prospect coming up through the Marlins organization, living up to expectations in his 2010 big league call-up by slashing a .283/.390/.447 in 62 games.  He followed that up the next season with a slightly lesser .247/.330/.468 despite hitting 23 homeruns.  The last two seasons, Morrison has been less than pedestrian, averaging a .236/.321/.387.  However, against RHP last season, Morrison put up a solid .261/.354/.423.   The Mariners could be looking to implement a platoon at 1B next season, with Morrison starting against RHP, and Hart against LHP.

While Hart and Morrison fill needs for the Mariners, their acquisitions may have also created an opportunity to land a needed centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Both Hart and Morrison were top targets for the Milwaukee Brewers who are looking to fill their need at 1B.  With both Hart and Morrison no longer available, the market for first basemen has thinned dramatically.  The Brewers’ current remaining options are trading for the Mets’ Ike Davis, or signing free agent James Loney.  However, the Mets are asking for top pitching prospect Tyler Thornburg in return for Davis, whom the Brewers are not willing to give up.  And Loney is seeking a three-year deal, also something the Brewers are not interested in providing.  To complicate matters even more, the Brewers are competing with both the Pirates and the Rays who are also looking to fill needs at 1B.

Enter the Mariners and newly available Justin Smoak.

By acquiring Hart and Morrsion, the Mariners not only added needed offense, but simultaneously positioned themselves for a possible trade with the Brewers.  But not just any trade.  Rather, a trade for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.  As we noted in our offseason lookout, Gomez is one of the games top up-and-coming players who would provide the Mariners with elite defense as well as production at the top of the batting order.  The Brewers have made no indication that they are willing to move Gomez, but the Mariners – via their acquisitions of Cano, Hart and Morrison – have created an abundance of tradeable pieces that could persuade the Brewers to think otherwise.

In return for Gomez, the Mariners could not only offer Smoak to fill the Brewers’ need at 1B, but also include any combination of Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, Jesus Montero, in addition to top pitching prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.  We previously suggested a package of Walker, Smoak, Saunders, and top outfield prospect Stefen Romero.  But with the signing of Cano, the Mariners are now free to add Ackley or Franklin into the mix without creating a need in their own lineup.  Could a package centered around Walker, Smoak, and Ackley entice the Brewers to part with Gomez?  Maybe swap out Ackley for Franklin?  Perhaps offer Paxton instead of Walker, but include a few more prospects in the deal?  In any scenario, the Brewers would be receiving young cost-controlled players with upside, capable of stepping right into the starting lineup, and who would fill immediate needs.

Clearly, at this point, a possible Gomez trade is nothing more than conjecture.  But with the Brewers looking diligently to fill their need at 1B, the Mariners suddenly find themselves with a golden opportunity to make an offer to acquire that coveted center fielder and leadoff hitter, one that could find the Brewers hard pressed to pass up.

Robinson Cano and the Mariners

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Robinson Cano.  The Seattle Mariners.

The former an elite superstar looking for a mega deal.  The latter a franchise desperate to land an elite superstar, and willing to dish out the necessary cash to do it.

A match made in free agency heaven, or simply wishful thinking by the Mariners?

As the trade rumors continue to swirl at tsunami speed regarding a possible Cano signing by the Mariners – the latest being a possible 9 year, 225M offer – reactions to this unlikely marriage have resulted in the type of mocking, jeering and disapproval last seen in 1990 when Rosanne Barr butchered the national anthem at Jack Murphy Stadium .

For example, there was this from Keith Olbermann:

The Yankees, who put out signals tonight that they are still in the market for Cano, want that market for him to deflate, so their 7 year, sub 200M deal suddenly looks wonderful to him…and there’s nothing that can make that happen faster than making it look to Cano like the only place he can go is Washington State.

Not just the Mariners, but Washington State?  Ouch.

Then there was this from Ken Rosenthal:

I’ll come right out and say it: If Cano signs with the Mariners, it will be the dumbest move by a free agent since Rodriguez signed with the Rangers after the 2000 season.

Dumbest move since Arod?  Double ouch.

But my favorite was this little nugget from Dave Cameron at USS Mariner:

Mariners, I get why you like Robinson Cano. I get why he’s pretending to like you back. Don’t fall for it, though. Don’t be the nerd doing the pretty girl’s homework in hopes that she’s going to realize that the jocks are stupid and you’re the one for her. You’re just going to end up in the friend zone. Go find someone who is actually into you for you, and not someone who wants to use you for your money.

End up in the friend zone?

Look, here’s the thing.  Yes, as Cameron points out, the Mariners are “nerds.”  But what Cameron fails to understand is that the Mariners have been in the “friend zone” for years when it comes to trying to win the affection of top free agents.

You know, Seattle, the city that has enough qualities to make it a nice place to visit – i.e. a nice stadium, pretty scenery, abundant coffee, good bars and restaurants – but just not enough of that certain je ne sais quoi to make it a place worthy of a long-term relationship?

In recent years, the Mariners have courted the likes of Mike Napoli, Nick Swisher, Prince Fielder, and Josh Hamilton, all of whom spurned the Mariners, letting them know that while they liked them, they just didn’t like them in that way.

Even when the Mariners completed a trade for Justin Upton, the slugging outfielder invoked his no trade clause, in essence saying thanks, but no thanks to the Mariners’ overtures.

Yes, the Mariners are nerds.  But make no mistake, they are in the friend zone.  And the only players that have reciprocated the same level of affection shown by the Mariners have been baseball’s version of barflys – Jack Cust, Miguel Olivo, Jason Bay, Adam Kennedy, Mike Sweeney, and Eric Byrnes to name just a few.

Fast forward to current day, and what the Mariners have seemingly figured out with their recent pursuit of Cano is that in order to get that pretty girl, the nerd has to go big and over the top.

Sure, it’s irrational.  Maybe even foolish.  But there comes a time when it becomes necessary.

I’m not sure what has led to this realization.  Maybe Jack Zduriencik spent the Thanksgiving holiday watching a marathon of 80’s teen flicks.   Maybe it was watching Eric Stoltz trading in his college savings to spend on the school’s most popular girl on the date of all dates?  Or perhaps Patrick Dempsey paying the beautiful Amanda Peterson one-thousand dollars to be his girlfriend?

In either case, the nerd went irrational, maybe even was foolish, but by doing so jettisoned himself from the geeky friend zone and catapulted himself into an aura of cool and being someone everybody wanted to hang out with.  And that, in a nutshell, is what a Cano signing would do for the Mariners.

So, Zduriencik, quit hoping the popular girl will end up liking you.  Stop settling for less simply because you are smart, awkward, unfashionable and have confidence issues.  Instead, go big and do what it takes to make that popular girl realize how cool you truly are.

Go make John Hughes proud and get yourself Robinson Cano.

Mariners Bring Back Willie Bloomquist

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According to reports, the Mariners have inked utility player Willie Bloomquist to a two year deal for somewhere in the neighborhood of 5M-6M pending a physical.  Since his departure from the Mariners after the 2008 season, Bloomquist has gone on to play for Kansas City, Cincinnati, and most recently Arizona where he slashed a .289/.328/.368 the past three seasons for the D’backs.

At first glance, Bloomquist’s signing is nothing more than obtaining a versatile bench player who can play every position on the field other than pitcher and catcher.  However, Bloomquist joining the M’s could mean something more than just adding depth.

In constructing a 25-man roster, one’s bench ideally would consist of a catcher, an outfielder, and two backup infielders, one of whom is also capable of playing an outfield position.  As of right now, the M ‘s have that duo in Dustin Ackley and Carlos Triunfel, assuming that the M’s are not content with starting 2014 with Ackley in the outfield.  So why guarantee that type of contract to a 36 year old Bloomquist who would essentially be a minor overall upgrade over Triunfel?

One answer would be if the Mariners were going to lose Ackley as that versatile infield/outfield backup. And that scenario could come true if Nick Franklin were traded, allowing Ackley to move back to second base, or if Ackley were to be traded.  With the Mariners looking to obtain an impact bat this offseason, either of those players could be moved without leaving a hole in the starting lineup.

The other reason is if the Mariners signed Bloomquist to not just be a backup, but, rather, as someone who is going to play, and play a lot.   While, career-wise, Bloomquist has carried a below average bat, his split against left handed pitching has been decent, slashing a career .283/.339/.377.  Zduriencik has made it clear the Mariners will be employing more platoons in 2014, and with Bloomquist’s versatility in the infield and outfield, Zduriencik could be looking at Bloomquist to provide platoon options for Mike Saunders, Kyle Seager, Justin Smoak, and perhaps even someone like Shin-Soo Choo if signed.

Whatever the reason(s) that exists behind the Bloomquist signing, one thing can be said – the Mariners apparently are not worried about overpaying (even if minutely, relatively speaking) for someone whom they see as filling a need in 2014.  That, in itself, could be a good sign from a team looking to add impact bats, but who have been reluctant to pay market value to obtain such players.

Lloyd McClendon Announces Coaching Staff

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Today, Lloyd McClendon announced the remainder of his coaching staff for 2014.  A common theme with a majority of his hirings – four of the six – is their prior work with the young Mariners who are expected to play a significant part in the team’s 2014 campaign.  Whether this is any indication as to whether the Mariners are going to be serious players in free agency, or are going to rely on in-house options to fill needs, that still remains to be seen.  But judging from McClendon’s newly formed staff, surrounding the M’s young players with the coaches who have worked with them during their minor league ascension to the big league ballclub appears to have been a priority.

Joining previously named bench coach Trent Jewett, bullpen catcher Jason Phillips, and batting practice pitcher Scott Budner, McClendon has added the following to his staff:

Howard Johnson, hitting coach.  The former NL all-star spent the 2013 season serving as the Tacoma Rainiers hitting coach, where he spent time tutoring Brad Miller, Nick Franklin, and Mike Zunino.  Prior to working in the Mariners organization, HoJo spent 11 seasons in the Mets organization, including three seasons as their big league hitting instructor from 2008-2010.

Rick Waits, pitching coach.  Waits has spent the last three seasons working as the Mariners Minor League Pitching Coordinator, where he worked extensively with top pitching prospects Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, and Erasmo Ramirez.  Prior to coming to the Mariners, Waits worked in the Mets organization, spending 15 seasons in Player Development, and one season as the Mets Bullpen Coach.

John Stearns, third base coach.  Stearns spent 2013 as Seattle’s Minor League Catching Coordinator, as well as Manager of the Tacoma Rainiers, during which time he worked with many of the Mariners top prospects now on the big league club.  Prior to working in the Mariners organization, Stearns spent two seasons with the Mets serving as the team’s third base coach and catching instructor.

Chris Woodward, infield coach.  Last season, the former Mariner big leaguer received his first coaching job as the organization’s Roving Minor League Infield Coordinator.  In this capacity, Woodward spent a majority of his time working with many of the organizations top infield prospects including Franklin and Miller.

Andy Van Slyke, first base coach.  McClendon adds another former NL all star, gold glover, and fellow teammate to his roster in Van Slyke.  Away from baseball the last four seasons, Van Slyke comes to the Mariners having last coached alongside McClendon with the Detroit Tigers in 2009, serving as the team’s first base coach.

Mike Rojas, bullpen coach.  McClendon dips into the Tigers’ current coaching staff, hiring the Tigers’ bullpen coach the past 2 ½ seasons to fulfill the same duties with the Mariners.  Rojas also served time as the Tigers’ Director of Player Development, as well as Minor League Infield Coordinator.

Seattle Mariners Preview, Offseason Outlook

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The 2014 offseason is upon us, and now that the Mariners have solved their first order of business this offseason by hiring Lloyd McClendon as their new manager, GM Jack Zduriencik can now go to work addressing the team’s many on-field needs.

The most glaring holes are on offense.  Failing to address the Mariners’ lack of offense has been a constant under Zduriencik.  Last year, the Mariners scored 624 runs, fourth worst in the American League.  As bad as that seems, it was the first time since Zduriencik took over as GM that the Mariners did not produce the worst runs scored total in the league.  Finding areas to improve the offense should not be a problem, as the Mariners are currently lacking starting outfielders, a designated hitter, and a starting catcher.  On the pitching side of things, the Mariners had one of the best one-two starting duos in Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.  However, once past the top of the rotation, the Mariners struggled to get quality starts from the rest of their starters.   The Mariners relief corps was a mess in 2014, allowing the 2nd most runs, 2nd highest ERA, 2nd highest batting average against, 2nd highest WHIP, and 4th most blown saves in the league.

The offseason plan centers around the Mariners increasing payroll to $100 million for 2014.  With shrewd, aggressive moves in free agency and one bold trade, the Mariners can remake their lineup without surrendering much of their young prospects, all while staying under budget.

Without further ado…

Trade SP Taijuan Walker, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Michael Saunders and INF/OF Stefen Romero to the Milwaukee Brewers for CF Carlos Gomez

There is a lot of talk of the Mariners going out and signing free agent Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7-year, $100 million plus mega deal to take over center field and bat leadoff.  As great as Ellsbury would look patrolling the outfield for the Mariners, it will take a huge commitment from Zduriencik to land the 30-year old outfielder.  Which raises the question as to whether or not the Mariners should make that kind of long term investment on a player about to enter the backside of their career?   By trading for Gomez, the Mariners would shore up their centerfield and leadoff needs with one of the games top up-and-coming players, and at a salary much less than what it would cost to obtain Ellsbury.  In return for Gomez, the Brewers would receive an elite, young, cost-controlled rotation arm, one of the organizations top outfield prospects, and two big league players with upside who could step right into the starting lineup.

Sign OF Carlos Beltran to a 2 year, $28 million contract

The Mariners continue their search for outfield help by signing the 37-year old Beltran to man right field.  Despite his age, Beltran is coming off a productive 2013 where he posted a .296/.339/.491 and 24 homeruns.

Sign C Carlos Ruiz to a 2 year, $15 million contract

If there was one thing the Mariners should have learned from last season, it was that top prospect Mike Zunino was nowhere close to being ready to hit big league pitching.  In 52 games after being rushed up from the minors, Zunino posted a .214/.290/.329.  Ruiz is coming off a disappointing 2013 where he put up a .268/.320/.368, but would still be an upgrade offensively as well as providing solid defense behind the plate.

Sign DH/1B Corey Hart to a 1 year, $7 million contract with incentives

Along with an Ellsbury signing, the other constant heard around the hot stove is the Mariners re-signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a multi-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million per year.  Morales is a solid hitter, but he lacks the ability to play any other position, and makes Jesus Montero look like Jesse Owens on the base paths.  Hart would be a cheaper alternative to Morales, with higher upside in almost every offensive category.  Health, of course, is the big question with Hart.  But if his leg is healed, Hart could provide big numbers in the cleanup spot.

Sign OF’s Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth to respective 2 year, $10 million contracts

Here, the Mariners fill their LF need via platoon.  Last season Davis posted a .319/.383/.474 against LHP while McLouth produced a .272/.342/.411 against RHP.  Both players are above average defenders, can play all three outfield positions, and are adept base runners.  While free agent Shin-Soo Choo will command upwards to $20 million per year, the Mariners would receive the same production from a Davis/McLouth platoon, but at a fraction of the cost.

Sign SP Phil Hughes to a 2 year, $15 million contract

With Joe Saunders’ option not being picked up, the Mariners are in search of a #3 starter to slot in behind Felix and Iwakuma and Hughes offers the best upside to fill that need.   Last year, Hughes was battered at Yankee Stadium allowing a .909 OPS against, 17 homeruns, and a 6.32 ERA.  But on the road, Hughes allowed a far better .735 OPS,  7 homeruns, and a 3.88 ERA.  Moving out of Yankee Stadium and into a the more pitcher friendly Safeco Field would likely see Hughes’ overall number regress closer to last season’s road numbers.  And unlike most of the rotation arms available, Hughes is on the right side of 30, turning only 28 during the upcoming season.

Resign OF/DH/1B Raul Ibanez to a 1 year, $5 million contract

Last season, Ibanez showed he still had plenty of offense left in the tank, belting 29 homeruns and putting up a .487 slugging percentage.  But his poor outfield defense nearly negated his offensive contributions.  With Smoak departed to Milwaukee as part of the Gomez deal, Ibanez would take over as the starting 1B where his defensive shortcomings would be limited.  Ibanez has played 1B before in his career, so the position would be familiar territory.  And if health permitted, the Mariners could have Hart take some innings at 1B with Ibanez moving to DH.

Re-sign RP Oliver Perez to a 2 year, $6 million contract

Perez had a solid 2014 season, limiting LH hitters to a .238 average, a .288 slugging percentage, while striking out nearly a third of the batters faced.  Perez, however, struggled in the walk department, issuing 14 free passes to left handed hitters, accounting for his .358 OBP against.

Starting Lineup

  1. Carlos Gomez (R) CF
  2. Brad Miller (L) SS
  3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
  4. Corey Hart (R) DH
  5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
  6. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
  7. Raul Ibanez (L) 1B
  8. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth LF
  9. Nick Franklin (S) 2B

Bench

  1. Mike Zunino (L) C
  2. Dustin Ackley (L) INF/OF
  3. Rajai Davis/Nate McLouth OF
  4. Carlos Triunfel (R) INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez (R)
  2. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
  3. Phil Hughes (R)
  4. James Paxton (L)
  5. Erasmo Ramirez (R)

Relief

  1. Charlie Furbush (L)
  2. Stephen Pryor (R)
  3. Yoervis Medina (R)
  4. Carter Capps (R)
  5. Oliver Perez (L)
  6. Danny Farquhar (R)
  7. Tom Wilhelmsen (R)

Conclusion

With the additions of Gomez, Beltran, Davis and McClouth, the Mariners would field one of the top defensive outfields in the American League.   Hart would provide a legitimate cleanup hitter, while Ruiz would allow Zunino to move to the backup catching role where he could more comfortably ease into the starting catchers role.  Ibanez would provide a short term solution at 1B until D.J Peterson is ready to make the jump to the big leagues, or until the Mariners were able to find a more suitable long term solution.  The bench would be deep and flexible, with Ackley able to play the infield or the outfield, Triunfel able to play 2B, SS, and 3B, and Davis and McLouth able to handle any of the outfield positions.  Hughes would serve as a legitimate #3 starter, while the back end of the rotation – relying on youngsters James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez – would be an upgrade over Brandon Maurer, Blake Beaven, and Aaron Harang.   With improved starting pitching, a return to form from closer Wilhelmsen, and full seasons from Medina and Farquhar, the bullpen should be an improvement over last year.

All said and done, total payroll for 2014 would come in at $98.9 million

Mariners Need to Emulate Red Sox, Invest Wisely in Free Agency

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One can only imagine that while the Boston Red Sox were celebrating their 2013 World Series championship, there alone sitting in a dark corner office was Jack Zduriencik, astonished from what he was seeing transpire on the TV.

Because that night, Zduriencik had to witness a Red Sox team – one that finished 69-93 just a year ago – be crowned the best team in all of baseball for 2013.

And as second year Boston GM Ben Cherington conveyed to the world that he simply was “just happy to be along for the ride,” one can be sure at that very moment, Zduriencik’s blood pressure began to rise ever so slightly, realizing that, entering his sixth year as GM of the Seattle Mariners, he had yet to put together a team that has allowed him to feel – even for just a moment – “happy to be along for the ride.”

2013 was supposed to be that type of season for Zduriencik and the Mariners.  No, not one that would be punctuated with a World Series Championship.  But one that would see the Mariners continue to grow and reach expectations of surpassing the .500 mark and even possibly contend for a playoff spot.  The type of season that would validate the prolonged rebuilding plan that Zduriencik and Howard Lincoln have vowed was the right path to winning.

But 2013 ended up being quite the opposite.  And the Red Sox World Series championship season only provided further testimony that perhaps Zduriencik needs to re-evaluate the Mariners’ rebuild approach, and maybe take some notes from the Red Sox’s second year GM.

Unlike Zduriencik and the Mariners, Cherington utilizes a develop and contend at the same time approach by placing an importance upon both cultivating homegrown talent, and investing in quality free agents who can facilitate winning in the immediate and in the years to come .

Cherington’s belief, of course, should be nothing new to the Mariners.  It was the same method used by former GM Pat Gillick who dipped heavily into free agency while refraining from trading away top prospects.  But despite the string of 90+ win seasons and playoff appearances accomplished during the Gillick years, these days what is heard from Mariners headquarters is that developing from within, while acquiring cheap disposable stopgap free agents, is the smarter approach.   The theory being that if a low cost veteran acquisition doesn’t pan out, the team can simply cut them mid-season and eat the remaining money owed without being hamstrung by multi-year contract obligations.   Of course, if and when that happens, what truly has occurred is wasted valuable payroll, and a team struggling as a result of poor veteran acquisitions.  And as Mariner fans can attest to the past five seasons, wasted payroll and poor veteran acquisitions has summed up the Mariners and their free agent acquisitions.

What the Mariners need to remember is that if a team goes about free agency with intelligence, the cost-benefit analysis will play to the investor’s favor despite the money spent up front.

The 2013 Boston Red Sox were a prime example of this, and one way this is revealed is via team WAR.

While Zduriencik and the Mariners were busy offering up a king’s ransom for Josh Hamilton, the Red Sox went out and focused their efforts on second-tier free agents. Among those that they signed were Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and David Ross – two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher.  The foursome would fill holes in the Red Sox lineup at a cost of 34.1 million for 2013.

Now, before we go any further, there is the argument that the Mariners were unable to spend 34.1 million on free agents, which would have raised payroll upwards to 100 million.  But let’s not forget that the Mariners were prepared to drop 20 million on Hamilton.  Such a signing would have put payroll around 95 million assuming that a Hamilton acquisition would have eliminated the need to trade for Michael Morse.  As the attempted Hamilton signing illustrates, the money is there to spend.  It’s just a matter of how the Mariners choose to spend it.

After the Mariner’s all-or-nothing pursuit of Hamilton came up empty, Zduriencik – like the Red Sox – acquired two outfielders, a DH/1B, and a backup catcher to fill holes for 2013. Morse, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Kelly Shoppach would end up costing half as much as the Red Sox’s four acquisitions; 16.25 million for the upcoming season.

According to Baseball-Reference, Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach wound up combining for a dismal 1.8 WAR for the Mariners in 2013. Shoppach ended up being designated for assignment mid-season, and Morse lived up to his can’t-stay-healthy reputation by spending much of the time on the disabled list before being traded to the Orioles.   Despite paying out less than half as much as Boston, Zduriencik spent a whopping 9 million per WAR produced from his veteran acquisitions.

Conversely, Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross would become central players for the Red Sox, combining for 12.1 WAR.  Despite spending over twice as much as the Mariners, Cherington not only received better production, but ended up paying a mere 2.8 million per WAR produced.

The Mariners’ investment costs may have been considerably less, but their returns were practically non-existent.  As the old saying goes, the Mariners got what they paid for.

The Mariners 2013 payroll landed somewhere in the neighborhood of 82 million and finished with a team WAR of 23.2, resulting in a 3.53 million spent per WAR produced.  If, say, the Mariners had acquired Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, and Ross instead of Morse, Ibanez, Morales and Shoppach, their payroll would have been 99 million, their team WAR would have increased to 33.5, and their per WAR expenditure would have dropped to 2.96 million.

Yes, the Mariners would have needed to spend more money, but in the end, a far better return on their investment would have been achieved.  And any successfully run business will place more importance on returns than on investment costs.

Now, a team WAR of 33.5 would not have been enough to expect a playoff berth.  Normally playoff-caliber teams produce a team WAR of 40 or more.  The average team WAR of the five American League playoff teams this year was 47.12, with Cleveland coming in at the lowest with a team WAR of 39.3.

But a team WAR or 30 or better should result in a .500 or better season.  If we look at the four teams that didn’t make the American League playoffs but who finished with an above .500 record – the Rangers, Orioles, Yankees and Royals – their average team WAR was 38.65 with the Yankees coming in with the lowest team WAR of 30.3 and finishing 85-77.

Accordingly, it can be fairly surmised that if the Mariners had produced a 33.5 team WAR, they would have finished 2013 with at least 81 wins.  With a solid core of returning veterans and expected growth from their blossoming group young players, the Mariners would seemingly be in good position to take the next step towards playoff contention.  But instead, the Mariners went the opposite direction, and ended up distancing themselves as a playoff caliber contender.

There’s no question that the Mariners have a lot of areas that need to be fixed, heading into 2014.  The Mariners currently have no manager, are riddled with holes throughout their starting lineup, rotation, and bullpen, and are being led by a GM whose future with the Mariners is, at best, questionable.

But one area that should be easily corrected entering 2014 is the methodology behind Zduriencik’s veteran acquisitions.  Cheap and safe have not delivered.  It’s time the Mariners take a page out of the Red Sox financial playbook, and begin making shrewd intellectual investments that will generate cost-effective results rather than acquisitions premised primarily on reduced risk, minimal contract obligations, and lowered payroll.

Mariners Go Back to the Well, Interview Chip Hale

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Since the resignation of Eric Wedge, Oakland Athletics bench coach Chip Hale has long been rumored to be on Zduriencik’s radar as a possible replacement.  Today, the rumors became true as Hale met with Mariners officials, kicking off the Mariners latest managerial search.

For those that need a refresher, Hale was a candidate to fill the Mariners’ vacant managerial seat in 2008.  Back then, Hale brought with him six years experience as a minor league manager, and two years experience as a third base coach, all of which fit nicely into Zduriencik’s “no major league managing experience” requirement.  However, when the interviewing process was completed, Zduriencik found his “crown jewel” manager in A’s bench coach Don Wakamatsu.

When the Wakamatsu experiment came to a crashing halt in 2010, Zduriencik put together his next list of managerial candidates.  Unlike before, this time prior managing experience was a must.  Zduriencik would interview Bobby Valentine, Lloyd McClendon, John Gibbons, and Cecil Cooper before finally settling upon Eric Wedge.

Now, five years after Zduriencik’s initial managerial hiring, he’s again looking for another manager.  And this time around, it’s back to “no experienced required” with Hale being mentioned as one of the leading contenders.  Others whose names have surfaced as potential candidates:  Matt Williams, Torey Lovullo, Ron Wotus, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Joey Cora, and Dave Martinez.

Now, I am not going to pretend to know whether or not someone like Chip Hale would make a good manager.  My own personal opinion is that first time managers are best suited on veteran teams –teams that know how to manage themselves – and experienced and war-tested managers are most effective for young unproven ball clubs thirsting for direction.  But truthfully, managerial success comes in all shapes, sizes, experience levels and ages.  Hale’s resume lacks experience, but certainly warrants consideration within the parameters of first time managerial candidates.  But whether an inexperienced manager will end up being the the right fit for an inexperienced Mariners club is simply anybody’s guess.

But here are two things we do know:

First, the last time Zduriencik and the Mariners hired an A’s bench coach with no prior big league managerial experience, and whose resume included time as a big league third base coach, a minor league manager, and a graduate of an Arizona college, the outcome ended up being far from ideal.  In fact, it ended up being a huge black eye for the organization.

Second, the past three managerial searches under Zduriencik have gone from not wanting experience, to requiring experience, to now back to not needing experience.   While the Mariners rebuilding plan has remained constant and will again feature another season of mostly young unproven players, the prerequisites for what it takes to manage the rebuild effort continues to be in flux.  Consistency in Zduriencik’s vision of a manager to lead the Mariners has been all but nonexistent.  And that is not good.

The upcoming 2014 season will mark the beginning of year six of the Jack Zduriencik era.  If the Mariners want to avoid dragging this rebuild effort out for another six to ten years, they have to get this managerial hiring right.   Whether it’s Chip Hale, or Torey Lovullo, or someone else like Lloyd McClendon, there is no more room for error.  Whichever road Zduriencik chooses to take, wasting three to four more years on another failed manager is no longer an option.

Time for the Seattle Mariners to Hire Dusty Baker

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It’s been 3 weeks since Eric Wedge abruptly resigned as the manager of the Seattle Mariners. And while Mariners officials have stayed the usual course of remaining silent when it comes to what might be stirring within their think tank, they have been vocal in their efforts to explain – from their perspective – what really transpired during that final week of the season that caused Wedge to reverse his public statements of wanting to stay with the Mariners, made just one week prior to his resignation.

And when I say “explain” I mean paint Wedge as someone who couldn’t get his top prospects to produce at the big league level, had lost the confidence of almost everyone who had a hand in running this team, and, therefore, as someone who had the audacity to ask for a multi-year contract extension after a season in which the Mariners regressed rather than take further steps forward.

Of course, it’s impossible to know what truly happened.  The Mariners are saying one thing, Wedge is saying another thing, and Jack Zduriencik remains silent, choosing to sit on his hands and not comment on any of the claims being made by the people that work for him.

But what is clear is that the Mariners are in damage control.  Entering an offseason needing one or two bats in the outfield, a DH, a #3 starter, at least one arm for the bullpen, and now a manager, the Mariners are trying to quickly sweep away the bitter residue left behind from yet another managerial hiring gone bad.

And although the Mariner brooms are at terminal velocity, the rest of the baseball world is left gawking at an organization moving at a pace only Rip Van Winkle could appreciate.

An organization that has become the MLB version of Groundhogs Day, with Zduriencik playing the part of Phil Connors, desperately trying to piece together the right combination of changes to cease the nightmare of reliving the same failures over and over again.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  This isn’t to say that Eric Wedge leaving the Mariners is some tragic loss.  Believe me, it’s not.

For the record, I was never a fan of Eric Wedge. Back in October of 2010, I was highly critical of his hiring despite the Mariners PR machine working overtime to tout Wedge as some great prospect developer.  A persona the Mariners derived from his Cleveland Indians managerial days, during which time a handful of players made the transition from minor league prospects to major league all-stars.  But as most understand, the prospect game is tricky business.  Some organizations will hit the jack pot with their highly-ranked prospects like Cleveland did during the early 2000’s.  But others, like the Mariners and their top prospects, will not.  And realistically speaking, seldom does such a group of talented young prospects all successfully emerge at the same time like they did with Cleveland.  That anomaly  should have raised question within the Mariner brain trust as to whether Wedge really did contain some magical touch that transformed prospects into all-stars, or if he was just the beneficiary of being in the right place at the right time?  And if it was the latter, which it most likely was, then there really was no upside to his hiring other than the fact he was cheap and willing to buy into Howard Lincoln’s and Jack Zduriencik’s blueprint for rebuilding.

No, Wedge’s departure is not a setback. Rather, it’s an opportunity.  And a golden opportunity, at that.  Because at a time when the Mariners desperately need to find someone who can help save a sinking ship, standing in the managerial unemployment line is someone whose resume is filled with a track record of transforming stagnant, underachieving teams into playoff contending teams.

Jack Zduriencik and Howard Lincoln:  Meet Dusty Baker.

That’s right, Dusty Baker.  The manager who supposedly cannot handle young pitchers, and who is allegedly responsible for burning out the arms of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior;  who plays favorites; prefers veterans to rookies; and supposedly rejects advanced metrics by his suggestion that clogging up the base paths with the sluggish and the slow-footed can sometimes be more of a detriment than beneficial.

You know, the manager accused of being the second gunman on the grassy knoll.

Look, I won’t argue that Baker doesn’t have his detractors.  What manager doesn’t?  I mean, there is no such thing as the “perfect” manager.  But his critics, by and large, are from the arm chair GM variety.  And regardless of the myriad of criticisms that get thrown his way by those that do not play the game, one undeniable truth remains constant: those that do play the game love playing for Baker.  They buy into his philosophies, and play hard for him.  Heck, Baker was fired for sticking up for his hitting coach.  He took a bullet for someone who helped him be successful.  What player wouldn’t want to go to war with that type of manager?

If his managerial track record is any indication, not many.  Baker has gone to the playoffs with every team he has managed – three times with the Giants, including the World Series; once with the Cubs; and three times with the Reds.  In his 20 seasons as a manager, Baker has achieved twelve .500+ seasons, including seven seasons of 90 or more wins.  Baker’s managerial success has resulted in him being voted NL Manager of the Year three times.

Simply put, Baker wins wherever he goes.  He turns teams into winners.  He is the Pat Gillick of managers.

And for a team like the Mariners, that’s huge.  Because entering an offseason where the Mariners are in need of a whole lot of help, Baker does what no other first year manager can do: he brings instant credibility to an organization that currently has none.

You want Jacoby Ellsbury? Perhaps Shin-Soo Choo?  Well, let me be the first to tell you that the hiring of the Chip Hales’ or Joey Cora’s of the bench coaching world aren’t going to do anything for the Mariners in that endeavor.

But bring Baker aboard, sit him across from Ellsbury or Choo, have Baker look either player square in the eyes, and tell them that things are about to change in Mariner Nation or else he (Baker) wouldn’t be here if they weren’t?  Well, I can pretty much guarantee you an Ellsbury or Choo is going to listen.  And although either player still might not sign with the Mariners, you can be sure that they and agent Scott Boras will walk away from the negotiating table convinced the Mariners are, indeed, serious.

And that, alone, would be a huge step forward for an organization that was turned down by Josh Hamilton, stating afterwards that the Mariners were never serious players in their attempt at signing the free agent slugger.  And who were also rejected by Justin Upton in the trade that would have brought the gifted outfielder to Seattle for 2013 and beyond.

Of course, all of this begs the question of whether or not Zduriencik and Lincoln have the gumption to hire Dusty Baker?  Realistically, Zduriencik and Lincoln won’t even interview him.  Because hiring someone like Baker would require Lincoln and Zduriencik to give up – or at least share in – a bit of the decision making process when it comes to player personnel and roster construction.  That is something quality veteran managers of Baker’s stature normally require.  And that is something this organization has been reluctant to give up ever since Lou Piniella left town.  But, hey, one can hope, right?

Because, you know, despite continually making the same mistakes over and over again, even Phil Connors eventually figured out how to stop the endless cycle of madness.

Let’s just hope Lincoln and Zduriencik can do the same.

Revisiting Zduriencik’s Infamous 2010 Letter

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As the Mariners begin their search for their third manager in five seasons, we at Mission Mariner are reminded of the letter Jack Zduriencik e-mailed to season ticket holders the last time the Mariners found themselves in this very position.

The letter written after the fateful 2010 season, which saw the Mariners lose 101 games, and was highlighted by the firing of manager Don Wakamatsu midway through the season.

The letter where Zduriencik stood tall and defied all those know-it-all arm chair general managers by confidently assuring everyone that there were “plenty of reasons to believe that our long-term plan is working.”

It’s now been three years since that bold assertion made by Zduriencik. An assertion that teetered   on arrogance considering the calamity that transpired both on and off the field that season. Nonetheless, it served as a direct response to the cynics who now had 2010 to use as confirmation for their dissension, while providing reason, for those thinking of jumping ship, to stay on board a little while longer.

First, the farm system.

“We’ve got a flock of top-rated prospects on their way to the big club. These include position players Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Carlos Peguero, Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Johermyn Chavez, Greg Halman and Matt Mangini, along with hard-throwing pitchers like Michael Pineda, Blake Beavan, Dan Cortes, Mauricio Robles, Maikel Cleto and Anthony Varvaro. Many of our best prospects are headed for winter ball and the fall instructional league – they’re driven to improve and play at the next level.

Some of these youngsters will develop faster than others, but we’ve got a rich pipeline of talent. Impressive, considering how thin our minor league system was just a couple of years ago. Plus there are more top prospects coming: We have the #2 pick in the 2011 June draft and we continue to scout and sign top international players.”

Now, fourteen “top prospects” and a top draft pick – eventual selection Danny Hultzen – coming down a “rich pipeline” all of whom are “driven to improve and play at the next level” is pretty impressive.  Most every franchise would be lucky to have such talent in their farm system.

Except, today, eight of those top prospects are no longer with the team (Chavez, Halman, Mangini, Pineda, Cortes, Robles, Cleto and Varvaro), one is still in the minors (Peguero), one is dealing with a serious rotator injury (Hultzen), and four are still trying to prove they should stick on a big league roster (Smoak, Ackley, Franklin and Beavan).

Of that group of fourteen, only one has solidified himself as a productive everyday major league player (Seager).

So, the minor league talent hasn’t panned out as Zduriencik projected back in 2010.  No problem. There’s talent on the big league club, right?

“At the big league level, Mariners pitchers tied for the third best ERA in the American League in 2010. Felix Hernandez has fulfilled his potential as a perennial Cy Young candidate. Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Luke French made major strides in 2010. We like our pitching; our staff is young, developing and hungry.

Two young players, catcher Adam Moore and outfielder Michael Saunders, got valuable playing time and impressed scouts around the league. Meanwhile, our four core players – Ichiro, Felix, Guti and Chone Figgins  – are signed to long-term deals.”

This time, Zduriencik names nine major league players, four of whom he specifically labels as “core” players, as well as group of pitchers singled out as essentially young, developing, top flight rotation arms.

And what franchise wouldn’t want that?   Not knowing any better, one would surmise the Mariners were sporting a solid core group of players to build around, two young impressive up-the-middle defenders, and one of the best young rotations in baseball.

Unfortunately, of those nine players named, six are no longer with the team (Vargas, Fister, French, Moore, Ichiro, Figgins), one spends more time on the DL than on the field (Guti), and one is still struggling to show he belongs on a big league roster (Saunders).

Of the four deemed “core” players, only Felix has lived up to the billing.  Regarding those Mariners pitchers who tied for the third best ERA in the American League?  Just Felix remains.

So, what does all this mean?

It means you can crumble up that letter from 2010 and throw it into the recycle bin.  Because all that’s really remaining from all of those “top prospects” and “core” major league players that Zduriencik boasted about is Seager, Felix and, um, well…that’s about it.

Seager and Felix.

It also means that for as much hope and excitement the Mariners want you to feel with the newest wave of top prospects to have reached the big leagues – Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Nick Franklin – the 2010 season and the Zduriencik letter is a yet another stark reminder that prospect rankings are meaningless as it relates to future MLB success.

Because when the 2013 season kicked off, the Mariners started four of the top 30 prospects from 2010 – Montero (4), Ackley (11), Smoak (13) and Saunders (30).

All of whom were collectively ranked higher than the next subsequent catcher/infielder/first baseman/outfielder quartet ranked on that list – Buster Posey (7), Alceides Escobar (12), Logan Morrison (20) and Todd Frazier (43).  A group of players that every GM in baseball today would probably take over the foursome the Mariners had accumulated.

And if we are keeping it real, most every GM in baseball would probably just take Posey over Montero, Ackley, Smoak and Saunders

Which isn’t to say that those four can’t eventually live up to expectations.  Or that Zunino, Miller, Walker, Paxton, or Franklin won’t end up being productive major league players.  Rather, audacious boasting of unproven players will prove foolhardy more often than not, no matter what number precedes a player’s name on some prospect rankings list.

Which is probably why Howard Lincoln talked strictly about baseball operations instead of player evaluations when recently asked his personal thoughts on the current state of the team.  And considering how Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team has seemingly adopted a dormant approach when it comes to expounding on organizational decision making, it’s not really surprising that Lincoln quickly side-stepped the opportunity to offer his opinion regarding the young players on the big league roster.

Or maybe Lincoln, Zduriencik and the rest of the Mariners’ upper management team learned their lesson from 2010, and are not prepared to make the same mistake twice.

Because Zduriencik’s 2010 letter – that infamous letter meant to show season ticket holders that the Mariners were, in fact, doing things right despite losing 101 games – now stands as a glaring beacon of irony, warning the baseball world of the dangers that come from prognosticating the future of prospects, especially by a franchise who’s successful return to playing competitive and meaningful baseball hinges on an uncompromising prospect-only rebuild methodology.