Tag Archives: Seth Smith

Mariners Make Mistake by Keeping Seth Smith over Nori Aoki

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Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners made their first substantial off-season moves by picking up Seth Smith’s $7 million option, declining Chris Iannetta’s $4.25 million option, and waiving Nori Aoki, who was immediately claimed by the Houston Astros.

All three players were inconsistent in 2016, with Iannetta and Smith fading badly in the second half, and Aoki taking a full first half before delivering the type of production that was envisioned when initially signed.

Dipoto previously stated that Mike Zunino would be penciled in as the starting catcher for 2017, that he planned on retaining Smith, and that Iannetta’s option was too pricey for a backup catcher.  So none of these moves were surprising.

But did Dipoto error by keeping Smith and discarding Aoki?

Both Smith and Aoki fit the mold of Dipoto’s preferred type of offensive player: contact hitters who can control the zone and draw a walk.  And both players put up similar numbers, with Smith slashing a .249/.342/.415 in 2016, and Aoki a .283/.349/.388.

However, once getting past the slash line, Aoki begins to distance himself as the more valuable player.

For starters, Aoki is more athletic than Smith, and far more fleet of foot on the bases, both of which are qualities Dipoto favors.

Production-wise, Smith is used primarily against right handed pitching.  And in this role, Smith was solid, producing a .256/.351/.431.  But against right handed pitching, the switch hitting Aoki was better, slashing a .300/.364/.428.

Aoki is also much better at making contact. In 2016, Aoki put bat-to-ball at a 89.3% clip with a strike-out rate of just 9%.  Smith’s contact rate was 79% while striking out 20% of the time.

Turning to defense, neither Aoki or Smith are close to being gold glove caliber players. Yet, as uninspiring as Aoki was on defense, Smith was far worse.

Aoki produced a -8.0 UZR/150 and a -4 DRS in the OF last season, which is not good. But Smith was nearly twice as bad, posting a -16.6 UZR/150 and a -7 DRS.

And then there is that second half drop off in offensive production that taints Smith each and every season. This was a concern of ours way back when Smith was first acquired.  This concern has yet to go away.

In 2016, Smith produced a .277/.366/.450 in the first half. In the second half, those numbers plummeted to a .222/.312/.361.   In 2015, Smith’s first half numbers were .268/.338/.477.  In the second half those numbers dropped to .219/.319/.394.   What about 2014 you ask? .283/.387/.508 in the first half, .243/.340/.346 in the second.

For his career, Smith has averaged a .276/.359/.471 in the first half, and a .240/.323/.414 in the second half.

Aoki was the opposite of Smith in 2016, producing an underwhelming .245/.323/.313 in the first half.  But after a brief stint in Tacoma, Aoki returned to destroy AL pitching in the second half to the tune of a .339/.390/.500.

This drastic split in 2016 was, for the most part, an anomaly for Aoki as his career first/second half marks are faily even, with a .289/.352/.366 in the first half, and a .289/.353/.414 in the second.

Add all of this up, and Aoki was worth 1.2 fWAR in 2016 while Smith was worth 0.5 fWAR.

Given all of these factors, its hard to imagine the reason for keeping Smith over Aoki, especially since Aoki would have cost less.  Perhaps Dipoto did so in order to retain Smith as a trade piece in to fill other needs, much akin to the San Diego Padres picking up Joaquin Benoit’s option last off-season with the intent to trade him.

Smith did hit 16 homeruns last season so, in a league that still values the long ball, Dipoto may feel Smith would appeal more to other teams looking to upgrade their offense.

Dipoto has repeatedly stated that no single transaction should be viewed in isolation.  Let’s hope picking up Smith’s option is just the first step in a series of connected future moves to improve the team for 2017.

Assessing the Mariners’ Offseason Additions

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This past week marked the first full squad workouts for the Mariners this Spring Training, and unless you live off the grid, or are still mired in a post-Super Bowl depression, you know by now that most baseball news outlets and experts have Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer playoff bound for 2015. In a rare moment of togetherness, the Mariners have traditionalists and statisticians both jumping on the Mariner bandwagon and picking them as the trendy team to make some noise this upcoming season.   For example, Fangraphs projects the Mariners being the best team in the American League in 2015. ESPN has them as the second best team.   Baseball Prospectus foresees the Mariners as the third best team. Those certainly are lofty predictions – the kind the Mariners haven’t seen since the days of Pat Gillick and Lou Piniella.

Much of the ballyhoo stems from an off season that – on paper –has propelled the Mariners from just-not-quite-good-enough to one of the best in the league. Heck, even Robinson Cano has caught the “on paper” bug. But are all the accolades deserved and well placed?

Below is a quick run through of the Mariners’ major off season acquisitions; the hope for each player as seen through the eyes of the Mariners; and the red flags that each player brings with them that the Mariners hope don’t rear their ugly head.

Nelson Cruz, DH. Signed to a 4/$57M contract.

The Hope: Cruz led the A.L. in homeruns last season with 40, and provided potent cleanup hitter production with a .859 OPS and a 140 OPS+.   That type of production compelled Jack Zduriencik to commit four years to the to-be 35 year old to bat behind Cano. Moving to the power suppressing chamber known as Safeco Field, Zduriencik and McClendon surely do not expect Cruz to replicate those numbers. But 25 homeruns and an .800 OPS would be a huge and welcomed upgrade at a position that yielded a paltry .190/.266/.301 from 16 players last season.

The Red Flag: The knock on Cruz has been that his career numbers are propelled by playing in hitter friendly ball parks. The criticism bears merit, especially when looking at his overall numbers in pitcher friendly A.L. West ballparks where Cruz owns a career .749 OPS at Safeco, a .571 OPS at Oakland Coliseum, and a .654 OPS at Angel Stadium.   Those stadiums will be home to roughly 60% of Cruz’s games in 2015, and if his numbers in those parks remain near his career averages, the Mariners will have spent a lot of money for production they could have received by merely moving Michael Saunders to DH.

Seth Smith, RF. Acquired from San Diego for Brandon Maurer  

The Hope: After the perplexing Saunders saga and trade, and then the inability to sign Melky Cabrera, Zduriencik acquired Smith to be the everyday right fielder against RHP. Smith is not the defender that Saunders is, but he ostensibly brings a few key upgrades to right field, namely the ability to stay healthy, a career .800 OPS, a career .839 OPS against RHP, and the proven ability to hit in a spacious ballpark (.841 OPS hitting in Petco Park last season).

The Red Flag: The past three seasons, Smith has displayed some fairly concerning first/second half splits. Consider the following:

2014 – First Half:  .895 OPS, Second half:  .685 OPS

2013 – First Half:  .742 OPS, Second Half:  .659 OPS

2012 – First Half:  .789 OPS, Second Half:  .702 OPS

This penchant for tailing-off in the second half should be worrisome and could end up being problematic for a team relying on Smith to produce in order to contend for a playoff spot.   Smith seemingly represents an upgrade over the .721 OPS they received out of right field a year ago, but it should be noted that Saunders’ second half numbers the past three years have trumped those of Smith. Which begs the question: would one rather have an above average defensive player who starts off slow, finishes strong, but ends the year with average overall numbers? Or a below average defensive player who gets off to a hot start, fades badly in the second half, but still finishes with above average overall numbers?  According to advanced metrics, it seems the answer would be the former, as Saunders’ rWAR the past three seasons matches that of Smith’s (5.8) but tops Smith’s fWAR during this same time (5.3 to 4.9).

Justin Ruggiano, OF. Acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Matt Brazis.

 The Hope: Ruggiano’s acquisition was premised on one main attribute: his ability to mash left handed pitching. Over his career, Ruggiano owns an .836 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners hope Ruggiano continues that trend helping to form a potent platoon with Smith in right field. Defensively, Ruggiano has been adequate across all three outfield positions and will backup Dustin Ackley in left and Austin Jackson in center.

The Red Flag. Zduriencik has gone on record stating that Ruggiano is not just a part-time platoon player, but someone who could play every day if needed. That’s a fairly big leap of faith for someone who has played more than 91 games in a season just once. And when he did (128 games in 2013) Ruggiano struggled greatly against RHP, slashing a .210/.283/.347 in 322 plate appearances.

Rickie Weeks, Utility. Signed to a 1/$2M contract.

 The Hope: Weeks brings another right handed bat to the Mariners, one that has produced a career .834 OPS against lefties including an .865 OPS last season. Although never having spent a moment in the outfield, Zduriencik and the Mariners envision Weeks platooning with Ackley in left field, as well as providing a right handed alternative at 3B, 2B and 1B if needed.

The Red Flag: Did we mention that Weeks has never played the outfield before during his career? In addition, Weeks will turn 33 in 2015 and has been nothing short of a below average to poor defensive second baseman the past three seasons due to his declining ability to get to balls put in play. Those are not good signs for someone who is expected to log most of his time in left field.

J.A. Happ, SP. Acquired from Toronto for Michael Saunders.    

The Hope: An obvious need for the Mariners during the offseason was acquiring starting pitching depth, and the Mariners believe Happ’s addition adds just that. Despite being used as a reliever at times last year, Happ managed 26 starts going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and averaged close to six innings per start.  Projected as this year’s fourth starter, the Mariners would be happy to receive that type of production from Happ again.

The Red Flag: Happ represents more of a replacement for the departed Chris Young than he does added depth. More concerning, however, is Happ’s injury history. Happ missed significant time in 2012 and 2013 due to injuries including a skull fracture suffered in 2013 after being struck in the head by a line drive. A sore back then landed Happ on the disabled list to the start of 2014. With the rotation likely featuring two inexperienced rookies (James Paxton and Taijuan Walker) coming off arm injuries, and their only other viable starter (Roenis Elias) also coming off arm injury, the Mariners will need Happ to stay healthy to provide “depth” and rotation stability.