The Mariners head into the offseason after a Rocky-esque 2021 that saw the young title wannabe’s go the distance and nearly pull off the unthinkable. However, the team could do nothing but watch as their dream of ending a 19-year playoff drought fell short on the last day of the season as the Boston Red Sox clinched the final Wild Card berth with a victory over the Washington Nationals.

After a dramatic 12-4 run to close out the season, the Mariners near playoff miss created a buzz around the greater Puget Sound last felt since 1995. Shortly after the season concluded, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto added to the excitement by declaring the team’s rebuild had turned a corner and ownership would increase payroll “substantially” for 2022. 

If that wasn’t enough, Mitch Haniger “turned it up to eleven” with his issuance of a letter in The Players’ Tribune indicating he and his teammates were not only going to “get after it” this offseason in preparation for the 2022 season, but would also be “coming for one of those playoff spots – and more.” Haniger doubled down on the news of an increased payroll by calling for Dipoto and his front office to “go all-in” and “make some impact moves” in order to “put this group over the top.”

After three years of rebuilding, Dipoto has now sounded the bell, signaling it is time to “Win!” with Haniger channeling his inner Mickey with a “What are we waiting for?!”

Of course, the question now looming over T-Mobile Park is how much money constitutes a substantial increase?  And what does that mean in terms of players sought and acquired, especially if Dipoto heeds Haniger’s advice and looks to add impact? 

The Mariners last substantial impact signing occurred in 2013 when former GM Jack Zduriencik signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year/$240M free agent contract. Nelson Cruz, who was signed the following year, was certainly an impact player. But his 4 year/$57M contract was far more palatable than Cano’s contract.  

Dipoto has never been a fan of long-term “mega” contracts due the nature of those type of deals: paying a player a large sum of money well beyond their prime years.  As GM of the Angels, Dipoto reportedly did share in owner Arte Moreno’s insistence of signing Albert Pujols at any cost, resulting in a 10 year/$254M contract to secure the services of the star slugger. In addition, one of Dipoto’s top priorities when initiating the Mariners “step back” plan was to get out from under the remaining five years of the Cano deal.  

Given that precedent, it would seem unlikely that Dipoto shows much interest in dishing out a 10-year deal for someone like Carlos Correa who is considered the top free agent on the market.

When describing the type of offensive players the Mariners may target this offseason, manager Scott Servais provided some insight: 

“I would like to see us add a couple of players. I don’t think it’s just one big fish, so to speak; I think it’s a couple of guys to balance out the lineup, create some length of the lineup. And I think some help in the starting rotation is key.”

Dipoto also dropped a few hints as to how the Mariners may proceed when it comes to the rotation: 

“We don’t naturally want to block the young guys from having an opportunity.  But I say that, and this year is a great example of don’t plan on five guys running through the season without hitting a bump in the road, either from an effectiveness or an injury perspective. So we’re going to go out, and we’re going to see if we can stabilize or add to our starting rotation.”

Adding a couple productive hitters would be the most obvious area of need for a Mariners offense that finished near the bottom of baseball with a slash line of .226/.303/.385, .688 OPS, and a 93 wRC+.  

And with mid-season acquisition Tyler Anderson a free agent, and both the Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi declining their respective options thereby casting Kikuchi off into free agency, adding at least one, but preferably two, starting pitchers should also be near the top of the shopping list.  

On the flip side, the Mariners bullpen should be in fine shape as it was one of baseball’s best in 2021, and will see youngster Andres Munoz and veteran closer Brian Giles return from injury and join the team’s cache of hard throwing arms in 2022.  An argument exists for another left-handed reliever to either join or replace incumbent southpaw Anthony Misiewicz, although the Mariners could look within the organization for that addition.   

With the Mariners declining Kyle Seager’s $20M option, and Kikuchi entering the free agent market, the Mariners project to roll into the offseason with roughly $22M committed to payroll (including pre-arbitration and arbitration eligible players).   That payroll figure should open up many interesting options for a team that has said it will explore any and all available avenues to improve the team for 2022 and beyond.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2022 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

Trade INF/OF Dylan Moore and RHP Devin Sweet for 3B Josh Donaldson, LHP Taylor Rogers, and $15M.

Maybe the biggest question among Mariners fans has been whether the team should pick up Kyle Seager’s option for 2022?  On one hand, Seager produced career highs in homeruns (35), RBI (101) and provided his usual solid defense with a +3.7 UZR.  As a kicker, Seager also hit a robust .308/.372/.643 with runners in scoring position.  

On the other hand, Seager produced one of the worst overall offensive outputs in his career with a .212/.285/.438 and a 99 wRC+.  A bit more worrisome is the 34-year old struck out a career high 24% of the time, and his contact rate dip to a career low 72.4%, marking the first time in Seager’s career that his ability to make contact fell below the MLB average. 

This past week, the Mariners made it official they would not be retaining Seager’s services for one more season, electing instead to allow the long-time Mariner to seek employment elsewhere as a free agent.   

The move signals that the front office believes there are better options available at third base to invest $20M into.  But who?

The most obvious fit is Kris Bryant who the Mariners reportedly tried to acquire at the trade deadline. Bryant could not only take over at third base, but he has also added left and center field to his defensive resume.  Eduardo Escobar is another option.  Escobar does not come with the same offensive pop as Bryant, but he would cost less and has the ability to play second base as well.   A few of the marque shortstops, such as Correa, Trevor Story or Marcus Semein, have all mentioned at one point they would be willing to move to third base, so the Mariners could look into those options as well. 

While all of the aforementioned would upgrade the hot corner, the Mariners best option may be to acquire Josh Donaldson from the Minnesota Twins.

Granted, this could be a bit of a risky move for the Mariners due to the money still owed to the veteran third baseman ($51.5M over the next two years) along with Donaldson’s age (35) and injury history.  

The risk, however, could pay off big as the former MVP slashed a .247/.352/.475, hit 26 home runs, and produced a 124 wRC+ in 135 games in 2021.  Donaldson also finished in the 92^nd percentile or better in exit velocity, hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, walk rate, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage.   

If the Mariners believe Donaldson can continue to stay healthy – as he mostly did this past season – Donaldson would be a huge offensive presence in the middle of the lineup, yet would cost a fraction of what it would take to land one of the available free agents who could produce similar offensive numbers.

And with Donaldson under contract for two more years, he would serve as a perfect stop gap until top prospect Noelvi Marte arrives sometime in 2023.   

In addition to Donaldson, the Mariners also snag lefty reliever Taylor Rogers who is due to earn $6.7M in his final year of arbitration. Rogers missed the second half last year due to a finger injury on his throwing hand, but he was quite effective prior to that, producing a 3.35 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 13.2 K/9, and limiting opposing batters to a .247/.280/.370 over 40 appearances.  The addition of Rogers would give the Mariners a sorely needed second lefty option, and serve as an upgrade over Anthony Misiewisz who produced so-so results with a 4.61 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.7 K/9, and a .280/.328/.431 against.

In exchange for Donaldson, Rogers, and a kicker of $15M in salary relief, the Mariners send the Twins infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore and minor league pitching prospect Devin Sweet. 

Moore, 29, has played every position other than pitcher and catcher for the Mariners. He has teased with his speed/power combo potential, with the Mariners finally believing Moore was tapping into that promise in 2020 when he slashed a .255/.358/.496.  But after being given the starting gig at second base for 2021, Moore could not capitalize on the opportunity as he posted a .181/.276/.334 and eventually lost his job to mid-season acquisition Abraham Toro.

While Moore can provide immediate utility, the main attraction for the Twins is Devin Sweet. With a fastball that continues to increase in velocity – currently sitting in the 93-95 mph range – along with a wipeout changeup, the Twins add an intriguing young arm who has turned heads of late as both a starter and reliever.  In 2019, Sweet posted a 2.26 ERA over 15 starts at Class A.  In 2021, Sweet was promoted to Class AA where as a reliever, Sweet posted a 0.63 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 12 relief appearances.  

Trade OF Kyle Lewis and RP Casey Sadler for 2B/OF Whit Merrifield.

If there is one thing that may be more reliable in Kansas City than finding really good barbeque, it is hearing the Royals announce each season that they will not trade Whit Merrifield.  Yet, every season, Merrifield’s name comes up in trade discussions.

This past trade deadline saw, again, Merrifield’s name spun through the rumor mill and, most notably, connected to the Mariners.  Days before the trade deadline were reports indicating the Mariners were “making a push” to acquire the versatile infielder/outfielder.  However, the trade deadline passed with no deal struck between the two teams.

The 2021 all-star finished the season batting .277/.317/.395 with 10 homeruns and 40 stolen bases.  In the field, Merrifield saw time at second base and both corner outfield positions where he produced solid defensive marks at three positions, and where he was named a gold glove finalist at second base.   

The Mariners attraction to Merrifield is understandable.  The life-long Royal is under contract for two more seasons, and brings a skill set valued by Dipoto and his front office: good bat-to-ball skills, ability to hit to all fields, speed, and defensive versatility.  And while the Mariners like the upside of Abraham Toro, who they acquired at the trade deadline, Merrifield would offer a clear upgrade at second base while also improving the team’s bench options as Toro would move into a reserve role.  The Mariners could also utilize Merrifield in either corner outfield position, thereby affording the team a good deal of lineup flexibility.

The cost to pry Merrifield away from Kansas City would be fairly steep.  The Royals are still in a win-now mode, so they will presumably want MLB ready or near ready players in return. 

To accommodate this need, the Mariners offer up former top prospect and 2020 Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis as the centerpiece.  Lewis’ quick and powerful bat has already resulted in a .258/.343/.450 (.792 OPS) and 22 home runs in just 464 plate appearances over parts of three seasons.

If this were 2019 or 2020, Lewis would surely be off limits for the Mariners.  But last season’s injury to Lewis’ knee could change that outlook in the eyes of the Mariners.  While Lewis expects to be healthy and ready for the 2022 season, it is unknown how much time Lewis can be expected to play in the field.  Most see Lewis’ days in centerfield now over, with his likely destination to be in a corner outfield position with the occasional game in center.   At worst, Lewis is a designated hitter who can play an occasional outfield.  Lewis most likely will fall somewhere in between, but where that is cannot be known for sure until he is back out on the field playing regularly.      

With Ken Giles and Andres Munoz expected to join the bullpen after spending last season rehabbing from injury, the Mariners are able to deal from an area of strength by including reliever Casey Sadler in the package for Merrifield.  Relying on a 94 mph cutter and one of the better curveballs in the league, Sadler had a breakout 2021 season where he appeared in 40 games and posted a 0.67 ERA/2.48 FIP and a 0.719 WHIP, including a franchise record 29 consecutive scoreless appearances to close out the season. 

It could be possible that the Royals may want a bit more in return, in which case the Mariners could also throw in someone like minor league reliever Will Vest who has an electric arm and some experience pitching at the MLB level.  But it’s difficult to imagine that acquiring two players who could immediately slot into the Royals’ lineup and produce, and who are under team control for three (Sadler) and four (Lewis) more years wouldn’t be enough to get the deal done. 

Sign SP Max Scherzer to a 3 year/$125M contract.

In an interview with 710 ESPN last September, MLB analyst Jeff Passan offered his take on what the Mariners should do to push them to being a playoff team in 2022:

“Listen, I don’t think they’re going to do this, but is there a better person than Max Scherzer for this team (the Mariners) right now?”

Passon continued: 

“If you want to build, to me there’s no better guy to build around than Max Scherzer at this point. You’re not going to be hemmed into a super long-term deal. Yeah, you’re going to have to pay $40 something million dollars a year, which is hefty, but can you imagine a rotation that starts with Scherzer and goes to (Chris) Flexen and continues with Marco Gonzales and then have Logan Gilbert and then you can slowly bring along (George) Kirby and (Emerson) Hancock or whoever else there is? I don’t know, man, I love the idea, and you have the money to go out and do it.”

You know what, Jeff?  We love the idea too.

The free agent starting pitching market offers a handful of quality rotation arms such as Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, and Eduardo Rodriguez.  However, let’s cut right to the chase.  None are aces.  None are stoppers. 

Conversely, Scherzer is.

Even at age 37, Scherzer has shown no signs of slowing down.  He still sits mid 90’s with his fastball, and is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award (his fourth) after posting a 15-4 record, a 2.46 ERA/2.97 FIP, and a 0.864 WHIP. 

The Mariners have not had that kind of pitcher leading their starting staff since the days of Randy Johnson.  And if Scherzer is on the same path as the Big Unit was at this same stage of his career, then one can expect Scherzer to continue putting up Cy Young caliber for several more years.

Yes, Scherzer will be incredibly pricey.  But he will not command the length of contract that other free agent pitchers will.  And let’s be real – if you have $125M to spend on a pitcher, would you rather give that to Scherzer over 3 years or someone like Gausman over 6 years?  Yeah, us too.  

Sign INF/OF Chris Taylor to a 4 year/$60M deal.

After Kyle Lewis was lost for the year with a knee injury, the Mariners went primarily with an outfield of Haniger in right, Jarred Kelenic in center, and a Jake Fraley/Dylan Moore/Jake Bauers/Shed Long/Jose Marmolejos rotation in left.  That merry-go-round in left field resulted in an offensive output of ugly proportions: .191/.285/.333 (.617 OPS) and a 76 wRC+.  

If the Mariners are serious about the playoffs in 2022, they will have to do something to address that malaise.  

Their approach in doing so will require working around the arrival of top prospect Julio Rodriguez who is expected to make his debut sometime around midseason, and will surely be given a good deal of playing time.

With the potential of Rodriguez joining the outfield mix at some point during the season, acquiring an outfielder with positional flexibility would make a great deal of sense.  And who better than the player Dipoto traded away and calls “the worst deal I’ve ever made.”

Last season Taylor slashed .254/.344/.438 (.782 OPS) and hit 20 home runs while covering six positions for the Dodgers: second base, shortstop, third base, and all three outfield positions.   That production and versatility would be vital as it would allow the Mariners to use Taylor at a number of positions both in the outfield and the infield.

Sign INF/OF Leury Garcia to a 2 year/$10M deal.

With Moore traded to the Twins, the Mariners will need to find his utility replacement.  And even if Moore were not traded to the Twins, the Mariners should find his utility replacement. 

While most of the attention this offseason will be drawn towards finding upgrades for the starting lineup, the Mariners would be amiss if they failed to give their bench a little love as well.  Besides Moore, the Mariners bench last season comprised some combination of Sam Haggerty (.186/.247/.291), Donovan Walton (.206/.254/.365), Bauers (.220/.297/.275) and Marmolejos (.160/.262/.311). 

With a far from stellar collection of reserves to pick from, Mariners treat themselves to the versatile Garcia, 30, who hit .267/.335/.376 in 126 games last year for the White Sox while being penciled in at every position except first base, catcher and pitcher.  

 Resign Tyler Anderson to a 2 year/$12M deal

The Mariners picked up Tyler Anderson at the trade deadline to help stabilize the back end of their rotation after Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield were lost for the season with injuries.  Using a spasmodic motion and a variety of different arm angles, Anderson lived up to expectations and more through his first 10 starts, producing a 3.38 ERA/3.92 FIP.  However, the wheels would then come off as Anderson allowed 13 earned runs over his final three turns through the rotation. That dreadful number can be mitigated by the fact that the majority of those runs came in one outing against the Angels where Anderson surrendered 9 earned runs over 2.0 innings. Absent that one outing, Anderson posted a solid 3.68 ERA for the Mariners.

There isn’t much upside (or mystery) when it comes Anderson.  He is who he is: a savvy veteran pitcher who does not miss many bats, but does not walk a lot of people, and has the ability to keep his team in a game for five to six innings each time out.  For any team looking to fill out the back end of their rotation, Anderson is that perfect fit. And with Servais indicating he would like Anderson to come back, and Anderson stating he would like to return, it seems like the stars are aligned on this one. 

The 26-Man

Infield:  1B:  Ty France; 2B Whit Merrifield; SS: JP Crawford; 3B Josh Donaldson; C Tom Murphy

Outfield: LF Chris Taylor; CF Jarred Kelenic; RF Mitch Haniger

Designated Hitter: Luis Torrens

Bench: C Cal Raleigh; INF/OF Leury Garcia; OF Jake Fraley; INF Abraham Toro

Rotation: SP1 Max Scherzer; SP2 Marco Gonzales; SP3 Chris Flexen; SP4 Logan Gilbert; SP5 Tyler Anderson

Bullpen: LHP Taylor Rogers; LHP Anthony Misiewicz; RHP Erik Swanson; RHP Andres Munoz; RHP Drew Steckenrider; RHP Paul Sewald; RHP Diego Castillo; RHP Ken Giles

The Wrap

The goal for the 2022 season seems to be unanimous: find a way to lengthen the lineup. “Top heavy” would be an understatement when describing the Mariner’s batting lineup in 2021 where the majority of the team’s runs came by way of their first four hitters – Crawford, France, Seager, and Haniger.  In fact, outside of those four players, only one other Mariner with at least least 300 plate appearances tallied a 100 wRC+ or better (Luis Torrens).

If the Mariners intend to play meaningful games in October, then expanding their offensive attack will be a must.  Far too often last year did the Mariners have to wait for the top of the order to roll back around for there to be any chance at putting some runs on the scoreboard.  By adding Donaldson, Merrifield and Taylor, the Mariners do just that, allowing Servais to fill out a lineup card that will contain six proven run producers. And with the expected progression of Kelenic and perhaps even Torrens, the lineup has the potential to get even longer.  

In addition, Taylor, Merrifield, and Garcia will provide the Mariners a great deal of positional flexibility.  Having a multitude of players who can play several positions will not only provide the Mariners the advantage of being better able to mix and match their lineups, but also make more frequent in-game switches and be able to more easily cover positions when injuries occur.    On the pitching side of things, the Mariners return just three regular starters in Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, and Logan Gilbert, with the latter of the three being the only one who has the ceiling of a true top of the rotation starter. Expecting Gilbert to reach the ceiling on a consistent basis in 2022 may be a bit of a stretch. The addition of Scherzer adds a bona fide ace to the pitching staff while retaining Anderson shores up the back end of the rotation.  Scherzer and Anderson also create pitching depth as they allow the Mariners to start the year with Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield in Tacoma. A bullpen that was one of the best in baseball will return most all of their top arms from 2021. However – and with apologies to Hector Santiago and “rosin gate” – the one missing ingredient from the relief corp was a reliable second lefthander to pair with Misiewicz. The addition of Taylor Rogers fills that need.