Tag Archives: Trade Deadline

With the Trade Deadline Approaching, Mariners Should Look at Kevin Gausman

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Despite being 19 games above .500 with a record of 58-39 and in sole possession of the second wild card, the Mariners limped into the All-Star break losers of their last three series including a three game sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Now, after four days of regrouping, the Mariners will push off into the final 65 games of the season looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Part of that “regrouping” will include GM Jerry Dipoto surveying the MLB landscape in hopes of bringing aboard another pitcher prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline to help lessen the workload of his rotation.

In recent weeks, Dipoto has stated an interest in supplementing his rotation with another pitcher, whether that be a starter or reliever.

“[W]e’re not particularly looking to replace anybody because they have all been really strong contributors to what we’re doing. It’s a good group of five. If we have a chance to augment it, we will. But we’re not looking to replace anybody. They’ve all done such a nice job…The only real concern with our starting rotation is as the innings start to pile up, there’s going to be guys who go into innings thresholds and zones they’ve never been to before. We want to be conscious of that.”

Those “inning thresholds” Dipoto speaks of are primarily in regard to the Mariners’ two most inexperienced starters, Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Gonzales has already surpassed his career total in innings (113.1) while LeBlanc has tossed the most innings in a season (85.0 ) since 2010 when he started 25 games for the San Diego Padres and logged 146.0 innings.

But there is some concern regarding a couple of their veteran hurlers as well.

Last season, James Paxton set career highs in games started with 24 and innings pitched with 136.0. This year Paxton has already started 19 games and logged 118.2 innings, and will surely blow past his career highs set last year.

In a precautionary move aimed at taking advantage of the extra off days coinciding with the All-Star break, the Mariners placed Paxton on the 10-day disabled list after exiting his last start with back stiffness.

Felix Hernandez – with 19 starts and 105.1 innings pitched – has already surpassed the number of games started (16) and innings pitched (86.2) from last year’s injury riddled campaign, and is on pace to eclipse his 2016 totals.

And like Paxton, the Mariners placed Hernandez on the 10-day disabled list just before the All-Star break as a protective measure to rest a sore back.

Given the unease towards the rotation’s workload, and now the emergence of possible health issues to two of their experienced rotation pieces, the addition of another arm for the rotation would likely make the most sense for the Mariners.

With Dipoto not wanting to replace any of his current starters, the Mariners could conceivably utilize a six-man rotation allowing Gonzales and LeBlanc to share the fifth starter duties, and provide Paxton and Hernandez the ability to take a day off when needed.

Additionally, another starter would also provide insurance in case of injury and a subsequent stint on the disable list.

Of course, that begs the question: What starting pitcher is available that not only fits the Mariners needs, but is a realistic option in terms of cost?

In the past month, the Mariners have been connected to Cole Hamels of the Rangers, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Hamels and Happ are experienced pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, and either would help the Mariners.

However, both would be rentals as Happ is a free agent at the end of the season, and Hamels’ $20M team option for 2019 would surely be too expensive for the Mariners to pick up. It is difficult envisioning Dipoto spending the necessary prospects to acquire either of the veteran pitchers given the limited tenure that each bring with them.

Alternatively, Boyd would be a more attractive option as he will not be arbitration eligible until 2020, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2022 season.

But Boyd’s career 5.29 ERA (4.81 FIP), and 4.76 ERA this season (4.26 FIP) are numbers the Mariners could receive from in-house options such as Christian Bergman (career 5.54 ERA, 5.01 FIP), Roenis Elias (career 4.15 ERA, 4.33 FIP), or Erasmo Ramirez (career 4.48 FIP).

Others who have been mentioned as possible trade options for teams looking to add starting pitching are Tyson Ross of the Padres, James Shields of the White Sox, Kyle Gibson of the Twins, Matt Harvey of the Reds, Ivan Nova of the Pirates, and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rays.

All of the above-mentioned players could be helpful additions to the Mariners rotation. But questions regarding health (Ross, Eovaldi, Harvey) or production (Shields, Gibson, Nova) makes any cost-benefit analysis lean more towards doubtful than favorable.

One name that has received little trade deadline attention but who would fit nicely in the Mariners rotation is Kevin Gausman.

The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft and former No. 20 MLB prospect has been a solid fixture in the Orioles rotation since 2014.

Since joining the big league club in 2013, Gausman has produced a 4.22 ERA, (4.20 FIP, 3.95 xFIP), a 3.04 K/BB ratio and has averaged 5.7 innings per start. He is tracking those career numbers this season with a 4.33 ERA (4.46 FIP, 3.89 xFIP), 3.59 K/BB ratio, and averaging 5.9 innings per start.

While those numbers are solid, his inability to reach the expectations of becoming a Cy Young caliber ace has been a growing frustration for Orioles’ fans and organization.

But Gausman’s raw abilities can’t be ignored.

His fastball averages 94 mph and is still capable of touching upper 90’s. His changeup, often recognized as one of the best in baseball, sits low 80’s and has tremendous movement. And his slider bites suddenly and sharply making it an effective out pitch.

In addition, Gausman misses bats at an above league average rate (11.5 swSTR%), and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB rate).

Furthermore, Gausman is just entering his prime at age 27, is making a team-friendly $5.6M this year, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2020 season.

There have been no indications that the Orioles are willing to move Gausman, specifically. But with an aging roster and the second worst record in all of baseball, Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM Dan Duquette has stated his team will be moving forward with a rebuild of its roster and baseball operations.

If the Orioles are seriously committed to a complete overhaul, then Gausman should be available for the right offer. But what would that “right offer” have to be?

Any trade proposal would have to start with Kyle Lewis, the Mariners top prospect. It would then have to include a couple more top organizational prospects.

A starting point could be a package consisting of Lewis, starting pitcher Max Povse, and outfielder Anthony Jimenez.

Here, the Mariners would be trading the No. 67 overall rated MLB prospect (Lewis) along with their organization’s No.7 (Povse) and No. 13 (Jimenez) prospects. That package could be tweaked by adding a young player with some MLB experience such as Daniel Vogelbach or even Guillermo Heredia.

Which is reasonable considering last season:

–The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (age 27, 2.5 years of control) from the Athletics for two top-100 MLB prospects in infielder Jorge Mateo (#85) and right-handed starting pitcher James Kaprielian (#87), as well as outfield prospect Dustin Fowler.

–The Chicago Cubs acquired Jose Quintana (age 28, 1.5 years of control) from the Chicago White Sox for two top-100 MLB rated prospects in outfielder Eloy Jimenez (#14) and starting pitcher Dylan Cease (#97), in addition to first base prospect Matt Rose, and infield prospect Bryant Flete.

–The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander (age 34, 2.5 years of control) from the Detroit Tigers for one top-100 MLB rated prospect in starting pitcher Franklin Perez (#54), outfield prospect Daz Cameron (2016’s #74 rated prospect) and catching prospect Jake Rogers.

Gausman is not on the same level as Gray, Quintana, and even Verlander, so he’s not going to command two top-100 MLB prospects like those three did. However, his age, affordability, contract status, and upside should net the Orioles one mid to lower end top-100 prospect.

Naturally, parting with Lewis would be a tough pill to swallow given the dearth of blue chip talent in the Mariners’ minor league system.

Lewis is arguably the one Mariners prospect with star potential. However, early into his professional career, Lewis has already had to deal with a serious knee injury that has not only set back his development, but has raised question whether the knee can hold up to the wear and tear of playing center field.

Many in the Mariners organization believe a move to a corner outfield position is inevitable for Lewis, especially after the Mariners’ recent selection of centerfielder Josh Stowers in the second round of this year’s amateur draft.

If such a move occurs, it will present an interesting future dilemma for the Mariners.

With right field currently occupied for the foreseeable future by All-Star Mitch Haniger, Lewis’ path to the big leagues will lead him to left field.

Then there is 17-year-old Julio Rodriguez, slashing a robust .336/.422/.518 in the Dominican Summer League, who also profiles as a future corner outfielder and middle of the order power bat, and who is projected to reach the big leagues just a year or two after Lewis.

See the predicament?

With Haniger entrenched in right field, and both Lewis and Rodriguez on a trajectory towards left field, something – or someone – is going to have to give.

Considering these factors, if the Mariners believe Rodriguez is the real deal then moving Lewis for productive and controllable pitching makes sense.

Of course, the Mariners have been down this same road before with the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard trade. So naturally, there will be wariness.

But unlike Bedard, Gausman has been durable and injury free throughout his career.

And if the Mariners can get Gausman to take that next step, they will have found what every team dreams of finding: extreme value in impact starting pitching.

Playoffs or Not, Mariners Must Be Buyers at Trade Deadline

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To be or not to be, that is the question for GM Jerry Dipoto and his Seattle Mariners. With the July 31 trade deadline just around the corner, Shakespeare’s words have never resonated more true as Dipoto and company must decide whether to be, or not to be, buyers or sellers.

The Mariners find themselves at the all-star break with a record of 43-47, a lofty 17.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West race, and 4.0 games back in a very crowded race for one of the two wild cards playoff spots. They are also trending in the wrong direction after having lost 10 of their last 14 games.

For much of the season, the Mariners have been without their top four starters in Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Drew Smyly. Minor league call-ups Ariel Miranda, Christian Bergman, and Sam Gaviglio were able to step in and somehow help keep the Mariners afloat. The prospect of a healthy return of the team’s starting rotation had Mariner executives – and fans alike – believing a strong second half playoff run was possible.

That belief, however, has waned slightly in recent weeks.

Hernandez returned to the mound on June 23 after being placed on the disabled list April 26 with bursitis in his throwing arm. Since his return, however, Hernandez has been far from his former Cy Young self, giving up 19 hits and 11 earned runs in four starts.  Such results have provided fodder to those who believe that the days of “King Felix” are over.

Paxton returned May 31 after missing four weeks with a forearm strain. While Paxton seemed to be on his way to supplanting Felix as the new “King” by posting a 1.43 ERA in his first six starts of the season – including four starts where he gave up zero runs – Paxton has since provided an unroyal-like 5.40 ERA in his seven starts since coming off the disabled list.

Iwakuma went on the disabled list May 10 with shoulder inflammation and was expected to be back sometime in June. However, his return has been put on hold while the club tries to figure out why Iwakuma’s velocity, normally in the 88-91 mph range, remains at 80-83 mph.

Smyly, Dipoto’s main offseason pitching acquisition, was shelved during spring training after suffering a flex strain in his throwing arm. Targeted for a July return, Smyly is now scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.

Yovani Gallardo, Dipoto’s other offseason pitching acquisition, is the only starter who has remained healthy all year long. However, an inability to consistently pitch past the fifth inning resulted in his demotion to the bullpen with rookie Andrew Moore, the organization’s top pitching prospect, taking his place in the rotation.

Add this all together and conventional wisdom would point to the Mariners being sellers.

Then again, 4.0 games back in the wild card race is not insurmountable, especially with the type of offense the Mariners put out on the field each and every game. Dipoto clearly understands that his club is just another hot streak away from taking control of the second wild card.

And whether or not the Mariners have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, one truth remains: The Mariners need starting pitching. Not just for this year, but for next and beyond.

Which, by all conventional wisdom, should necessitate the Mariners being buyers.

Looking ahead to 2018 and beyond, Iwakuma may have thrown his last pitch not just for the Mariners, but for his career. The same could be said for Smyly. At the very least, Smyly will miss a good portion of 2018 while he recovers from surgery. Gallardo will not be retained. And Felix is resembling more of a solid mid rotation arm rather than the ace he once was.  That leaves Paxton, who has shown ace-like stuff, but also a continued penchant for inconsistency and injury.

The Mariners do have the aforementioned Miranda, Gaviglio, and Bergman. But all three project more as back end starters. Moore has shown in his brief major league career that he belongs in the rotation. But at this juncture it remains unknown whether he’ll settle in as a top of the rotation starter, or just another young arm to round out the bottom half of the staff.

Dipoto could wait until the offseason to attempt to sign or trade for pitching. But the trade deadline presents a unique opportunity not necessarily found at season’s end. Unlike the offseason where most teams are competing to acquire (in this case) pitchers they believe will get them into the playoffs, the trade deadline is where half (or more) of MLB teams throw in the towel on the season and, as a result, look to sell coveted MLB assets for high end prospects.

Simply put, there is less competition at the trade deadline to acquire pitching.  So, even if the playoff odds are not in the Mariners favor, the reduced number of teams looking to invest in major league ready assets increases the odds of Dipoto being able to land a sorely needed starter to help this year and beyond.

The following is a short list of pitchers Dipoto should have his eyes on:

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox, Age: 28, 2017 Record: 4-8, 4.49 ERA, Team Control: Under contract for $30.85M over next three seasons including team options in 2019 & 2020.

  • If made available, Quintana will most likely be the most sought after pitcher. He’s young, under contract until 2021, and has top of the rotation stuff. While Quintana’s stats this season are not quite on par to last year’s when he went 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA, teams will assuredly be more inclined to assess Quintana from his five prior seasons where he has compiled 49 wins, and averaged a 3.41 ERA, 190.0 innings pitched, and holds just over a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburg Pirates, Age: 26, 2017 Record: 7-7, 4.43 ERA, Team Control: Arbitration eligible 2018 & 2019. Free agent in 2020.

  • Should the Pirates decide to dangle Cole, interest will be high. Like Quintana, Cole’s stats this year are not as good as those in past years, including two seasons ago when Cole finished with 19 wins, was selected to the All-Star team, and was fourth in the Cy Young Award voting. However, any team looking to add a pitcher who could produce ace-like results for seasons to come will be closely monitoring Cole’s availability.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves, Age: 26., 2017 Record: 7-6, 4.79 ERA, Team Control: Under contract for $31M over the next three seasons, including a $12M team option in 2020.

  • Recent reports have surfaced indicating that the Braves may look to move Teheran for the right price. At first thought, this would seem unlikely, as the Braves are in rebuilding mode, and trading away a 26 year old fire-baller who has a 3.39 ERA over his first five seasons doesn’t really make much sense. Then again, the Braves current rotation already contains a few youngsters in Mike Foltynewicz (25) and Sean Newcomb (24), and their minor league system is stacked with highly regarded pitching prospects, as evidenced by their seven pitchers listed in Baseball America’s midseason top 100 prospects.

Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers, Age: 24, 2017 Record: 9-6, 3.19 ERA, Team Control: Arbitration eligible 2019-2022. Free agent in 2023.

  • The idea that the Tigers would part ways with Fulmer is impossible to fathom.  For one, the veteran-laden Tigers are in need of getting younger.  And two, Fulmer is not only “younger” but the kind of young major league talent no team want to trade away.  I mean, what GM trades away a sub 25 year old pitcher who in their first two seasons as a major leaguer is a combined 20-13 with a 3.11 ERA, won the 2016 Rookie of the Year Award,  finished 10th in the 2016 Cy Young Award voting, and was selected to this years All-Star team?  But just like the Braves and Teheran, there are whispers that the Tigers could be willing to move Fulmer for the right price.  That “price” would surely be steep, and have to entail several top shelf prospects that would end up filling multiple future needs for the Tigers.

Dan Straily, Miami Marlins, Age: 28, 2017 Record: 7-4, 3.31 ERA, Team Control: Arbitration eligible 2018-2020. Free agent in 2021.

  • Two seasons ago, Straily was a journeyman pitcher who the Reds claimed off waivers from the Padres. There must have been something in that Cincinnati water because all Straily did in 2016 was go 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA. Straily has continued that breakout success this year with Miami by going 7-4 with a 3.31 ERA. It may be still too early to claim Straily as a top end starter, especially considering not long ago that he wasn’t even considered 40-man roster material. However, many see Straily’s improvement not as an outlier, but due to his maturation and development resulting in reduced walks, upped strikeouts, and an overall increase in velocity.  At age 28, the former top 100 prospect may finally be coming into his own.

Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics, Age: 27, 2017 Record: 4-4, 4.00 ERA, Team Control: Arbitration eligible 2018 & 2019. Free agent in 2020.

  • The question for most teams concerning Gray is health. After establishing himself as one of the top young arms in baseball by averaging 11 wins and a 2.88 ERA from 2013 to 2015, including a third place finish in the 2015 Cy Young award voting, Gray endured an injury plagued 2016 campaign where he made only 22 start, went 5-11, compiled a 5.69 ERA, and landed on the disabled list twice, the final time coming August 7 where a forearm strain essentially ended his season. The beginning of the 2017 season didn’t do much to dissuade any injury concerns as Gray missed the first three weeks of the season with a strained lat. But since coming back on May 2, Gray has steadily worked himself into form, and has stayed healthy thereby lessening concerns about his health.  In Gray’s last seven starts, he has limited hitters to a .227 batting average, has an ERA of 3.45, and is averaging 6.3 innings per start. All of which could be a sign that the Gray of old is on the verge of returning.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants, Age: 31, 2017 Record: 6-7, 4.51 ERA, Team Control: Under contract for $109.4M over the next five seasons including a $22M team option in 2022.

  • Of all the pitchers listed, Cueto is the oldest at 31. But with age comes a track record of being a bonafide #1 starting pitcher. Cueto has produced seasons of 18, 19 and 20 wins. He has a career 3.31 ERA. He just missed out on the Cy Young award when he placed second to Clayton Kershaw in 2014, and finished sixth last year after going 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA. Cueto certainly would be a boost to any team that acquires him. But Cueto is also a huge risk.   Not only is Cueto owed an average of $21.8M through his age 35 season, he also has an opt-out clause in his contract that allows him to become a free agent at season’s end should he so chooses to exercise it. What this means is that any team that acquires Cueto not only risks being stuck with an albatross of a contract, but will most likely have to pay deeply for a player who could end up being just a second half rental.

This all said, the big question is whether Dipoto could even put together an enticing enough package to land a pitcher with this mix of youth, proven results, and team control. The Mariners farm system is far from loaded with coveted talent, but they do have a couple top MLB prospects in outfielders Kyle Lewis (#34) and Tyler O’Neil (#38). They could also part with one of their young MLB outfielders in Mitch Haniger, Brad Gamel, or Guillermo Heredia. And the emergence of Moore in the starting rotation could allow Dipoto to part with someone like Miranda who could immediately step into a major league rotation.

In his short tenure with the Mariners, Dipoto has proven the ability to acquire the players he wants. Let’s hope come this trade deadline, Dipoto has his sights set on a top flight starting pitcher.

A Second Chance At Marcell Ozuna? Mariners Should Take It.

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Last year about this time, we here at Mission Mariner offered our take on who Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should be targeting as the trade deadline neared.  That player was young Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna.

At the time, Ozuna was slashing a .276/.323/.463, 15 homeruns, a 117 wRC+, and putting up solid defense with a DRS of 9.  With highly touted Jake Marisnick knocking on the centerfield door, it was a prime opportunity to nab someone whom we felt could be the next Carlos Gomez.

But instead, the Mariners dealt for the Tiger’s Austin Jackson and, well, we all know how that has worked out.  Not that Jackson has been horrible, but he has been far from the player that he was when he was with the Tigers.  And with Jackson set to leave as a free agent at the end of the year, and with no MLB-ready prospects in the pipeline to take over, the Mariners will soon find themselves in the exact situation they were in heading into the 2014 season.

Luckily, sometimes life gives you second chances.  And for the Mariners, they may have a second chance at Ozuna.

On July 5th, Ozuna was sent down to the Marlins Triple A affiliate after falling into a slump that saw him go from a .289/.362/.439 on May 11th, to just a .249/.301/.337 just 48 games later. (a .224/.260/.273 over that 48 game stretch).  And recent reports have now surfaced indicating the Marlins may be willing to deal Ozuna for young pitching.

Around this time last year, we suggested a package of Taijuan Walker and D.J. Peterson for Ozuna.  With Ozuna’s recent struggles, perhaps a straight Walker for Ozuna could get the deal done?

While Ozuna’s recent struggles may warrant some reasonable questioning, the fact is that all young players go through slumps.  For most, it’s a natural progression. Ozuna has already had success at the MLB level, and it should be expected that he will continue to do so.  Last year, we also advocated that the Mariners look into the young and talented – yet struggling – Aaron Hicks.  All Hicks has done this year is bounce back by providing solid defense and a .299/.364/.437 as the Twins’ center fielder.

There’s no reason not to believe Ozuna won’t get back to the 3.7 WAR player that he was last year.

The other day we suggested that the best trade deadline move for the Mariners was to do nothing.  But second chances don’t come around often.  As such, Zduriencik would be a fool not to grab this one while he can.

As Trade Deadline Looms, Best Move for Mariners Is To Fire Jack Zduriencik

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How disappointing has the 2015 season been for the Seattle Mariners?  Think anticipation for the release of Star Wars Episode 1, The Phantom Menace.  Then think Jar Jar Binks.  Yes, that disappointing.

The Mariners currently sit with a 46-55 record, ten games behind the division leading Angels, and seven games behind the Twins for the second wild card.  Mathematically, the Mariners are still “in it.”  But by all reasonable measures, the season is over.

We all know what has proceeded to happen.  No one needs to recap what has taken place on the field by manager Lloyd McClendon’s boys of summer.  And, yes, there is blame to go all around, from Robinson Cano’s lackluster play both in the field and at the plate, to Fernando Rodney’s inability to record outs.  But despite the poor play by almost everyone not named Nelson Cruz, the wheels for what can only be described as ghastly baseball were put in motion by GM Jack Zduriencik during the offseason and shouldn’t be surprising.   

Once again, another lost season can primarily be traced back to one thing: Zduriencik’s inability to properly construct a major league roster highlighted by his failure to make contingency plans should, say, someone like Mike Zunino fails to improve upon his lackluster 2014 season or, worse yet, regresses even further.

And in the case of Zunino, when a viable catcher was acquired in the form of Welington Castillo (who could take over for the struggling Zunino) Zduriencik did the unthinkable by flipping Castillo to Arizona for Mark Trumbo, thereby doubling down on the type of player that was already plaguing the Mariners: a slow-footed power hitter, with high strike out and low on-base ratios, and whose best position is 1B/DH but would be logging the majority of innings in the outfield.

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline just two days away, the question lingers whether the Mariners should be sellers or buyers?  The Mariners have a few viable trade chips at their disposal should they choose to sell, namely Hisashi Iwakuma, JA Happ, and Austin Jackson.  They also have a handful of players that they could use to acquire immediate help this season and reload for next in the form of James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Ketel Marte, D.J. Peterson, and Alex Jackson.

With the season virtually over, selling off assets would seem to make sense.  But with long-term deals given to Cruz, Cano, Seager and Hernandez in what has transformed into a “win now” game plan, there is an argument that acquiring players for a second half playoff push this season who can also be contributors for next season is the better move rather than acquiring B-level prospects who would not help in the foreseeable future.

Whichever road one believes is best to take, the bigger question to ask is whether Zduriencik can be trusted to execute a deal that would be to the Mariners benefit, whether for this season or for the future?  After seven years of botched trades, failing to develop a young core, and questionable free agent acquisitions, allowing Zduriencik another shot at “fixing” this team’s ailments very well could be the worst move of all.

Instead, a better move would be for the Mariners to stand pat, let the rest of the season play out, and then excuse Zduriencik from his GM duties at the conclusion of the season.  Then, to bring in someone with a high baseball pedigree to tweak this roster into a playoff contender.

After three lackluster prequels, even Disney was smart enough to remove George Lucas from the director’s chair and, instead, bring in the more capable and relevant JJ Abrams to lead the next cinematic installment of the Star Wars franchise.

After seven years of mostly disappointment, it’s well past time for the Mariners to do the same.  

Mariners Acquire Kendrys Morales, Try to Trade for Drew Stubbs

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GM Jack Zduriencik’s ears must have been burning. That, or he is an avid follower of Mission Mariner.

Just hours after we questioned why the Mariners were waiting so long to acquire a desperately needed bat before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, Zduriencik promptly went out and traded for former Mariner Kendrys Morales to take over the designated hitter duties.

Coincidence?

All kidding aside, the Mariners made a deft move by picking up the switch hitting Morales. Not only did they acquire a bona fide hitter that is proven at Safeco Field (.811 OPS at home for the Mariners last season) but Zduriencik only had to part with relief pitcher Stephen Pryor, who has been recovering from an arm injury all season. When healthy, Pryor is a solid bullpen arm, but his departure had no adverse effect on the Mariners relief corps.  And by not having to give up any of their top prospects, the Mariners retain the ability to pursue additional trades.

Morales will join the Mariners tonight for the second of four game series against the Baltimore Orioles. And none too soon. The Mariners offense has been struggling the past month, averaging a mere 2 runs per game.  They have lost 12 of their last 19, including last nights 4-0 loss to the Orioles.   The Mariners managed just 5 hits, and were shut out for the 12th time this season, second most in the American League.  Worse, the loss dropped the Mariners out of sole possession of the second wild card – a spot they’ve held since June 24 – and now find themselves 0.5 games behind both the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

Adding another hitter appears to be on the agenda for Zduriencik, as recent reports indicate the Mariners made a formal trade offer to Colorado for centerfielder Drew Stubbs. The former top prospect for the Cincinnati Reds has resurrected his career with the Rockies this season, slashing a .297/.335/.498. However, Colorado’s thin air is notorious for inflating offensive numbers, and that appears to be the case with Stubbs. At Coors Field this season, Stubbs is slashing a monstrous .351/.379/.619. But away from Coors, Stubbs is putting up a meager .229/.277/.343.   With those kinds of home/road splits, one would have to wonder why Zduriencik would be interested in acquiring Stubbs? Yes, Stubbs would provide manager Lloyd McClendon another right handed hitter who could provide above average defense in the outfield. But for a team needing offense, such drastic splits should be a gigantic red flag.

While other teams find themselves gaining momentum, the wind has left the Mariners sails. The Mariners finally added some offensive help, and Morales is a definite upgrade. But the addition of another hitter or two will be needed if the Mariners have any hope of keeping pace with their competition. With six days still to go before the deadline, there is time for the Mariners add more offensive pieces.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t take as long to do so as it did for Zduriencik to add Morales.

As the Mariners Continue to Sink, Zduriencik Continues to Wait

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It’s like a scene out of the movie, Titanic.

The ship is sinking; passengers are drowning; and those few who were able to escape into the safety of life boats – knowing they need to go back and help those struggling to keep their heads above the frigid waters – are hesitant to do so for fear of a worst-case scenario taking place. And with each passing minute that goes by while those in charge debate over how and when the best time to act is, the situation simply becomes direr for those fighting to stay alive.

Unlike the Titanic, the Mariners haven’t hit a massive iceberg, quickly sinking them in their quest for the playoffs. Rather, it’s been more like a small leak in their hull since setting sail. One that the captain decided to patch with duct tape believing their destination could be reached before the situation became too critical.

But now, a little more than half-way to their terminus, it’s become apparent the duct tape isn’t holding; the good ship Mariner is quickly taking on water; and without addressing the problem, the ship and its crew will submerge before reaching port.

For most of the season, the Mariners have been carried by its pitching, where they currently rank 1st in the American League in BA against (.230), OBP against (.291), and WHIP (1.15); and 2nd in ERA (3.45) and OPS against (.644).  The Mariner offense, however, has been a far different story, ranking last in OBP (.300) and OPS (.675), and second to last in BA (.246) and RS per game (3.94).

And while the pitching continues to perform, the offense – as unfathomable as it may sound – finds itself in further decline.

As noted in a previous post, the Mariners offense this season has thrived in hitting with runners in scoring position. Upon concluding their three game series against the Astros on July 2nd, the Mariners were producing a .686 OPS and 4.2 runs per game. However, in their last 16 games since then, the Mariners have produced a .619 OPS and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. During that 16 game span, the Mariners have gone 6-10.

With such lackluster hitting, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should feel fortunate to find themselves in the position they are in, and should feel confident about their playoff chances with the addition of an offensive piece or two.   The need for more offense is no secret, as the Mariners have been linked to nearly every available hitter out there. But with the trade deadline just over a week away, the Mariners continue to wait for the “right” deal to present itself while their competitors – the Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Royals, Tigers – have already made moves to strengthen their respective teams.

While it’s understandable that Zduriencik wants to be diligent with possibly dealing away a top prospect like Taijuan Walker, or taking on an aging veteran like Marlon Byrd, the waiting game can be a dangerous endeavor. Rather than identifying a need and quickly addressing it, the decision to wait for the perfect trade scenario can allow for circumstances to change and, thus, for opportunities to be lost.

The danger that can come from waiting too long should not be foreign to Zduriencik, as last year’s decision to try and wait out the market for Josh Hamilton ended up backfiring. While the Mariners appeared to be the only team willing to come close to Hamilton’s  asking price, Zduriencik’s drawn out negotiations with Hamilton allowed the Angels to have a change of heart and sign him in response to the Dodgers unexpected acquisition of Zack Greinke. Had the Mariners acted quickly and made their four-year plus two option years offer to Hamilton much earlier in the process, Zduriencik most likely would have gotten his man.

This past offseason, Zduriencik seemed to have learned from that mistake by jumping out into the forefront of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes. Rather than trying to wait out the market or prolong the negotiations by tinkering with low-ball offers – thereby allowing time for other teams to decide whether or not to join in the bidding – Zduriencik came out fast and furious by making an offer that just didn’t beat the Yankees 7-year, $160M offer, but obliterated it by an additional 3 years and $80M. For the first time in the Zduriencik era, the Mariners recognized a need, and then addressed that need quickly without allowing money to be an obstacle.

But that “see a need and immediately address it” approach has apparently gone by the wayside. With the Mariners’ grasp on the second wild card slowly slipping, and the need for offensive help resonating louder than a fog horn blaring through a midnight haze, Zduriencik continues to wait.

And so far, it’s been to the Mariners’ detriment.

With their starting pitching still hampered by injuries, and rookie Roenis Elias showing signs of wearing down, the Mariners had interest in acquiring Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel to shore up their rotation. However, before they could formulate an offer, the Athletics – also needing to bolster a rotation hit hard by the injury bug – quickly swooped in and traded for both players.

The Mariners then turned their sights on David Price and/or Ben Zobrist but wavered on the prospect of dealing Taijuan Walker and taking on Price’s contract. Those talks are now on hold as the once fading Rays suddenly find themselves winning, and now threatening the Mariners for the second wild card.

Early on, Byrd seemed like an obvious fit for the Mariners, as acquiring the 36-year old left fielder would probably not have required the Mariners to part with their top prospects. But interest in Byrd subsided as the Mariners pondered whether to agree to Byrd’s request to have his $8M option for 2016 guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In the meantime, the Royals and Reds have emerged as strong contenders for Byrd’s services, and the Yankees recent trade for OF/3B Chase Headley has eliminated one more hitter from the pool of available bats, thereby increasing Byrd’s value as a result.

Probably the worst consequence of the Mariners’ hesitation is they have allowed the competition for offensive help amongst playoff contending teams to grow considerably. Three weeks ago, there were only 4 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Two weeks ago, there were 5 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Today, 7 teams are now within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. By the July 31 deadline, 8 teams could be within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card, assuming of course the Mariners can hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays, both of whom are just 0.5 games back.

With their stellar pitching and defense, there is no question the Mariners could make a serious run in the playoffs. However, is there is enough offense, currently, to get them into October? Right now, all signs point to no. There are players available that would help right the ship. The question, though, is whether the Mariners will act in order to keep them afloat, or do nothing and risk plummeting in the wild card standings?   With only seven days to go before the trade deadline, the answer shall be known soon enough.

Forget Giancarlo Stanton, Mariners Should Deal for Marcell Ozuna

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With the All-Star Game now concluded, the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline looms large on the horizon. The Mariners find themselves holding one of the two wild card playoff spots, and are reportedly scouring the list of possible players that could be acquired to help them in their quest to make the post season for the first time since 2001. While trading for a starting pitcher is a need, the Mariners have been offensively-challenged for most of the season, and obtaining a (right handed) hitter to go with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager should be the priority.

The outfield is the obvious area of need, and the Mariners have been linked to a handful of players who would serve as immediate upgrades. Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Matt Kemp, Josh Willingham, Dayan Viciedo and Ben Zobrist are just a few of the names the Mariners have been rumored to be showing interest in. Each of these players would be welcomed second half additions, and would provide sorely needed pop from the right side.  What the Mariners are willing to give up in return is the unknown question. It’s been reported the Mariners either want a young player who can be a part of the future, or a veteran with an expiring contract. Either way, the Mariners have the blue chip prospects – Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Nick Franklin and D.J. Peterson – to land virtually any available player on the trade market.

Of course, the biggest name out there is the Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton. The 24-year old outfielder has been the most sought-after player the past few seasons. And while the Marlins have thus far been reluctant to move him, most figure it’s just a matter of time before Stanton is traded.

Stanton, obviously, would be an incredible addition for the Mariners. A Cano-Stanton-Seager middle of the order would be one of the best hitting trios in baseball.   But Miami has made it clear that Stanton is staying put this season, and any ideas of a trade is simply wishful thinking. Even if Stanton were available, the bidding war that would surely ensue would almost certainly require the Mariners to part with most of their top prospects, and maybe a young major leaguer or two. And after spending years rebuilding their minor league system, it’s hard to imagine GM Jack Zduriencik depleting his farm for just a single player.

The Marlins, however, do have another outfielder on their roster who isn’t just a fantastic notion, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Stanton, and who is the player the Mariners should be targeting above all others. That player is centerfielder Marcell Ozuna.

For the Mariners, centerfield has been an Achilles heel this season. First, it was the failed experiment of rookie Abraham Almonte. After producing a disastrous .198/.248/.292 in his first 27 games, the Mariners demoted Almonte and called up fellow rookie James Jones to take over the centerfield duties. While Jones has been an improvement offensively, slashing a .287/.318/.352, his defensive metrics (so far) grade out to being below average to poor with a -5.8 UZR and a -10 DRS.

A quality defensive centerfielder with offensive upside should have been the first priority for Zduriencik during the offseason. At the time, we here at Mission Mariner believed there was a window of opportunity for the Mariners to try and deal for the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez. With the Brewers now leading their division, any chance of landing Gomez has vanished. But with Ozuna, the Mariners may have another opportunity to solidify centerfield and upgrade the offense with a player who could be as good as, or even better, than Gomez.

Entering 2013, the, then, 22-year old Ozuna was ranked 75th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list. He was called up near the end of April after Stanton was placed on the disabled list, and in his 70 games thereafter, Ozuna produced a respectable .265/.303/.389, a 90 wRC+, and provided above average defense in centerfield (2.7 UZR, -2 DRS) and right field (6.9 UZR, 4 DRS).

This season, Ozuna was named the starting centerfielder for the Marlins over Jake Marisnick (more on him later) and is currently slashing a .276/.323/.463, has hit 15 homeruns, and is tied for 7th among all MLB centerfielders with a 117 wRC+. Ozuna has shined on defense as well, ranking 3rd among all MLB centerfielders with a DRS of 9.

Naturally, one would have to ask why the money-conscious Marlins would want to part with a young, up-and-coming, cost-controlled player who won’t be eligible for free agency until 2020? One look would tell anyone that Miami’s outfield is set for the foreseeable future with Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton.

Enter, Marisnick.

Marisnick is a five-tool player rated as the top hitting and defensive outfield prospect in the Marlins’ minor league system. Coming into this season, the 23-year old was ranked 79th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, and is the player most within the Marlins organization consider to be the team’s centerfielder of the future. With Marisnick now ready to break into the Marlin’s starting lineup, Ozuna could be expendable especially if it means obtaining top MLB ready prospects in return. The Marlins have been said to be seeking a young, cost controlled pitcher as well as a second baseman of the same stature.  The Mariners have both at their disposal.  

To obtain Ozuna, the Mariners could put together an attractive package centered around top prospects Walker and Franklin, both of whom could contribute immediately for the Marlins. Given the fact the Athletics recently traded the #14 rated MLB prospect plus some secondary pieces to acquire Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, trading the #11 MLB prospect in Walker plus last year’s #79 rated MLB prospect in Franklin should be enough to acquire Ozuna’s services.

However, Ozuna’s age, upside, and success at the MLB level could compel the Marlins to try and leverage the Mariners to part with, say, Walker and Peterson. Is Walker and Peterson too steep a price to pay? Possibly. But with all-star Seager entrenched at 3B, Peterson will ostensibly have to move to 1B, thereby decreasing his overall value to the Mariners. If Seattle were to be reluctant to include Peterson, they could sweeten the deal by throwing in a second tier prospect such as 3B Patrick Kivlehan, or perhaps include another young MLB arm with upside like Erasmo Ramirez or Brandon Maurer to go along with Walker and Franklin.

Giving up such players may seem a bit steep.   But the Mariners would be trading from positions of organizational strength to fill an area of organizational weakness. As the old adage goes, one has to give up talent to acquire talent. And Ozuna, at a very young age, is showing to be the kind of talent that can not only help the Mariners win today, but help them win for many years to come.

And that is a price worth paying for.