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Seattle Mariners 2020 Preview, Offseason Plan

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After six months of playing pretty ghastly baseball, the Seattle Mariners concluded their first year of “stepping back” with a much clearer vision of what the future may look like, and the success that will hopefully come with it.

Despite finishing the season with a 68-94 record, the Mariners saw improvement in many key areas important to their rebuilding effort thereby providing the organization, and fans alike, encouragement that the plan is progressing in the right direction.

The minor league system received strong performances from most of the organization’s top prospects, led by Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Jake Fraley, and Evan White.  As a result, a farm system ranked as one of the worst in baseball prior to the start of the 2019 season found itself in the top ten by year’s end.

Additionally, many of the prospects being counted upon in the rebuilding effort were not only able to make the jump to the majors, but also find some success in their first exposure against the game’s top talents.

JP Crawford and Shed Long displayed the offense, defense, and teamwork to affirm their status as the Mariners’ middle infield of the future.  Kyle Lewis’ torrent start to his MLB career reminded fans why he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball before suffering a devastating knee injury in 2016.  Despite inconsistency, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn showed flashes of dominance lending credence to each player’s top prospect billing.  And Erik Swanson, Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, and Sam Tuivailala provided a glimpse into the type of young talented arms that will comprise the team’s bullpen in the years to come.

The progress and achievements made by the Mariners’ minor leaguers and young rookies receiving their first taste of major league competition was about all Dipoto could have asked for in the first year of his abridged rebuilding plan.  Now, heading into the second phase of the step-back, the plan is to let the kids play.

Describing what to expect in 2020, Dipoto explained, “We’re looking at our young group and wanting to let them run with it. That’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

Dipoto continued, “As far as the position player group, I think most of what we’re going to do has already been done…that’s our team and we’re going to let them play and provide opportunity for the young guys and see where it takes us.”

In other words, the Mariners’ roster heading into 2020 is, for the most part, already set.  That is not to say Dipoto won’t be looking to add a few pieces.  A couple veteran relievers would be welcomed additions to a bullpen that will be short on experience.  In addition, a starting pitcher or two will be needed to help fill out a rotation that returns just two starters from last season.  However, while Dipoto has stated he will be keeping his eyes open for players that can help in either of those two areas, no one should be expecting any flashy acquisitions.  With the goal to give as much playing time as possible to the younger players, any veterans added will surely be on short-term deals so as to not block the progress of prospects, and to allow those veteran acquisitions to be easily traded should/when that need arises.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2020 Mariners.  So, without further ado…

The Moves 

  • Trade 2B Dee Gordon and RHP Dan Altavilla to the Cubs for SP/RP Tyler Chatwood

The Skinny:  Three reasons make this trade is a no-brainer: 1) The Mariners will be targeting a veteran starting pitcher for their rotation; 2) Dee Gordon is currently blocking Shed Long at 2B; and 3)  The Cubs are searching for stability at 2B.  With both Gordon and Chatwood in the final years of their respective contracts that pay each player nearly the same, a Gordon-for-Chatwood swap seems primed for the making.

  • Trade OF/DH Domingo Santana to the White Sox for LHP Jace Fry and INF Danny Mendick.

The Skinny:  Domingo Santana’s year-long defensive struggles in the outfield demonstrated that the power hitter’s best position is at DH.  However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at the position, the team finds itself with the less-than-ideal prospect of having to use Santana in the outfield again in 2020.  The White Sox finished the season ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in home runs, and are faced with losing a handful of hitters to free agency, including Jose Abreu and his 33 HRs and league leading 123 RBI.

  • Trade Tom Murphy to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Patrick Weigel 

The Skinny: With Brian McCann’s retirement and Francisco Cervelli a free agent, the Braves will be in the market for someone who, at the least, can share in the starting catcher duties should they pick up Tyler Flowers’ option.  With Tom Murphy’s surprise showing in 2019 (.858 OPS, 18 HRs) the Mariners have one to offer in exchange for something all rebuilding teams desire: a high upside major league ready pitching prospect.

  • Sign SP Kendall Graveman to a one year, $2.5M deal

The Skinny:  With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone free agents, the Mariners will need to find a few arms to fill out their rotation.  Baring trades, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi should be locks for the rotation, with top pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn given every chance to win rotation jobs out of Spring Training.  Kendall Graveman missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Projected to be healthy for 2020, Gravemen presents the ideal low risk/high reward player to slot into the back of the rotation.

  • Sign RHP Pedro Strop to a one year, $6M deal

The Mariners bullpen will rely on a handful of young high-octane arms age 26 and younger.  Adding an established veteran or two would help provide balance to a relief corps that lacks experience.  One of the better set-up men in baseball, Pedro Strop struggled through an injury plagued 2019 season where he posted some of the worst numbers of his career.  Looking to bounce back in 2020, Strop offers the Mariners an experienced arm that can bridge to the 9th inning or close.

  • Sign C’s Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training

With Tom Murphy traded to Atlanta, the Mariners will need to find someone to serve as a backup catcher to Omar Narvaez.  With Jose Lobaton and Jesus Sucre, the Mariners bring back two familiar faces to battle for the backup catcher role.  The Mariners do have top catching prospect Cal Raleigh knocking on the MLB door, but a call-up may not be in the cards until September.  Austin Nola is also capable of filling the backup catcher role, but he will most likely be the starting first baseman until Evan White is ready to take over, which should be sometime after July.

The 25-Man

Infield: 1B Austin Nola ($555K); 2B Shed Long ($555K); SS JP Crawford ($555K); 3B Kyle Seager ($19.5M); C Omar Narvaez ($2.9M)

Outfield: LF Kyle Lewis ($555K); CF Mallex Smith ($2.7M); RF Mitch Haniger ($3.0M)

Designated Hitter: Daniel Vogelbach ($559M)

Bench: OF Jake Fraley ($555K); UT Danny Mendick ($555K); C Jesus Sucre/Jose Lobaton ($750K)

Rotation: Marco Gonzales ($1.0M); Yusei Kikuchi ($16.0M); Justus Sheffield ($555K); Justin Dunn ($555K); Tyler Chatwood ($13.0M)

Bullpen: Tyler Guilbeau (L) ($555K); Jace Fry (L) ($569K); Erik Swanson ($555K); Sam Tuivailala ($900K); Art Warren ($555K); Gerson Bautista ($555K); Patrick Weigel ($555K); Pedro Strop ($6.0M).

The Wrap 

With the plan to hand the reins over to the organization’s young players while filling needs in-house, the Mariners won’t be looking to add a whole lot during the offseason other than a handful of players who can supplement a youthful roster and serve as safety nets in case any struggle.  The Mariners still have a couple trade chips in Marco Gonzales and Mitch Haniger, both of whom could bring back significant returns.  But the Mariners would be best to hold onto both players as Gonzales has established himself as a quality (and affordable) starter for a rotation short on quality (and affordable) starters and, after an injury plagued 2019 season, a trade of Haniger would see the Mariners selling low(er) on the former All-Star and MVP candidate.

In assessing the Mariners needs, the first order of business is to find a taker for Dee Gordon who is blocking Shed Long at 2B.

In his first taste of MLB action, Long slashed a .263/.333/.454 in 42 games, including a .289/.337/.518 in 23 September games, and formed a productive keystone combination with SS JP Crawford.  Gordon has never produced with the Mariners as he did with Miami where he won a batting title and two stolen base crowns.  However, some (much?) of that can be blamed on injuries.  After his first 45 games in 2018, Gordon fractured his toe and was placed on the injured list along with a .304 batting average and league leading 16 stolen bases.  The toe never fully healed, and Gordon struggled for the rest of year as a result.  Last season Gordon, again, got off to a solid start hitting .304 with 10 stolen bases in his first 38 games.  However, a JA Happ fastball off his right wrist, again, landed Gordon on the injured list.  Then in July, Gordon found himself back on the injured list with a strained quad.

Nevertheless, when healthy, Gordon displayed the type of speed, defense, and hitting ability that saw him average a .309/.340/.384 and 49 stolen bases over three seasons with the Marlins. Gordon’s biggest drawback, of course, is a contract that owes him $14.5M for the 2020 season including a $1M buyout in 2021.  To trade him, Seattle would have to cover a large portion of the money owed to Gordon, or take on a similar contract.

The Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood to a 3 year/$38M deal as a free agent in 2017.  However, Chatwood struggled in his first year as a starter, producing a 4-6 record and a 5.16 ERA in 20 starts.  Relegated to the bullpen for most of last season, Chatwood found greater success as a reliever posting a 3.67 ERA in 33 appearances. Now in the final year of his deal, Chatwood is set to earn $13M in 2020 from a Cubs team looking to find some consistency at 2B where seven players started at least 13 games at the position in 2019.

With Gordon due $1.5M more than Chatwood, the Cubs may not be willing to take on additional money in a straight across trade, or may feel that Gordon, alone, is not enough in return for a player who did produce decent numbers as a long reliever.  In any event, the Mariners may have to include an extra piece in the deal such as Dan Altavilla who, despite a tantalizing 98 mph fastball and some success at the MLB level, is now out of options and still looking to establish himself as a major league reliever.

The Mariners acquired Domingo Santana with the hope that the slugger could revert to the offensive force he was in 2017 when he slashed .278/.371/.505 and 30 HRs.  To the delight of the Mariners, Santana was on pace to replicate those numbers with a .286/.354/.496 and 18 home runs in his first 90 games.  However, right elbow inflammation suffered in July and a subsequent month-long stint on the injured list in August derailed what had been an impressive offensive showing to that point.

While Santana’s offense was a bright spot, his defense was a different story.  Santana produced a -23.8 UZR/150 and -10 DRS in left field, and -18.1 UZR/150 and -7 DRS in right field. Now knowing these defensive shortcomings, a move to DH is in order. However, with the Mariners committed to Daniel Vogelbach at DH, getting Santana into the everyday lineup would require playing him in the field where his porous defense negates any offensive value.

The White Sox primarily employed Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, and Wellington Castillo at DH in 2019.  However, with Abreu and Castillo both free agents, and Alonso released mid season, the White Sox will be in the market for a few bats to help bolster an offense that was one of the worst in the American League.  Specifically, adding power to its lineup should be on the White Sox’s to-do list, where Santana’s bat would fit nicely into the team’s opening at DH.

In return, the Mariners would receive left-handed reliever Jace Fry.  Despite an underwhelming 4.75 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 2019, Fry still managed to carry an 11.13 K/9 and a 57% ground ball rate.  More importantly, Fry held left-handed batters to just a .193 average while producing an 11.25 K/9 and a 63% ground ball rate.  Fry would join Taylor Guilbeau as the other lefty out of the bullpen.  Additionally, the Mariners also receive utility player Danny Mendick who, prior to last season, never ranked among the White Sox’s top 30 prospects.  However, the 26 year old’s surprising .279/.368/.444 at Triple A landed him at No. 26 by year’s end.  The White Sox rewarded Mendick with a September call-up where he produced a respectable .308/.325/.462 in 16 games.  With the White Sox already having Leury Garcia in the utility role, Mendick’s ability win a roster spot in the coming seasons could be difficult. With the Mariners, Mendick would represent an upgrade over Dylan Moore who served the utility role for the team last year.

Acquiring Tom Murphy from the Giants for minor leaguer Jesus Ozoria may have been one of the top unheralded moves in baseball last year.  Failing to establish himself with Colorado over four seasons, the Rockies released Murphy prior to the 2019 season.  The Giants picked him up and promptly flipped him to Seattle where the former top prospect produced the best numbers of his career with a .273/.324/.535 and 18 HRs in 75 games.  With Omar Narvaez returning as the starting catcher, and Austin Nola capable of catching if needed, the Mariners should look to take advantage of a thin free agent catching market where several teams are searching for upgrades.

With Atlanta one of those teams, the Mariners would be wise to sell high on Murphy.  Here, the Mariners send Murphy to the Braves for the team’s No. 12 rated prospect in Patrick Weigel.  The 25-year-old was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2016 when Weigel went a combined 11-6 with a 2.47 ERA between Single-A and Double-A.  Primed to break into the Braves rotation in 2017, Weigel underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his throwing elbow.  In his first full season back last season, Weigel split time between Double-A and Triple-A where he made a combined 18 starts with a 3.20 ERA, and 10 relief appearances with a 1.35 ERA.  With a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s, Weigel projects as a middle to backend starter.  Yet, in shorter outings, Weigel can run his fastball up into the high 90’s thereby making scouts believe he could thrive in a late inning set-up role or even as a closer.

From 2015 to 2017, Kendall Graveman posted a record of 22-24 with a 4.11 ERA over 71 starts while with the Athletics.  However, in July of 2018, Graveman underwent Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his throwing arm requiring him to miss most of the 2019 season.  The Cubs signed Graveman that offseason to a league minimum one-year deal with a $3M option for 2020.  The hope was for Graveman to be able to recover by the end of last year and then help the Cubs the following season as a starter or reliever. Ultimately, however, the Cubs decided not to pick up Graveman’s option.

With Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, and Tommy Milone all free agents, the Mariners need to find a few arms to round out their rotation.  Justus Sheffield is being counted on to fill one of the spots behind returning starters Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi. And Justin Dunn will be provided every opportunity to earn another rotation job.  The proposed trades for Tyler Chatwood and Patrick Weigel could result in one or both winning spots in the rotation. Additionally, the Mariners will take long looks at prospects Logan Gilbert, Ricardo Sanchez, and Anthony Misiewicz.  Of course, any starting staff relying on a handful of untested rookies and/or veterans trying to recapture past glory should recognize the inherent risks associated with such a plan.  Therefore, adding depth  to the rotation will be important.  Graveman provides the ideal veteran to stash in Triple-A due to the fact he will need to spend some time in the minors to build up arm strength, but also has a minor league option left.  As such, the Mariners can offer Graveman a major league deal, send him to Tacoma to start the season, and then bring him up when ready and needed.

One area the Mariners could see the most improvement in during the 2020 season is the bullpen. Much of 2019 was spent auditioning young’ish relievers who, despite still offering some upside, were released by other teams.  By August, the auditioning seemingly stopped and the Mariners settled on a group of relievers that included Sam Tuivailala, Erik Swanson, Art Warren, Matt Magill, Austin Adams, and Taylor Guilbeau.  Over the last two months of the season, that group helped combine for a 4.54 ERA and 4.48 FIP ranking them 8th and 9th respectively in the American League.  While far from dazzling, those numbers proved to be an improvement over the 4.90 ERA and 5.08 FIP produced by the Mariners bullpen in the four preceding months, ranking them near the bottom in the AL.

A quality veteran reliever (or two) should be targeted to bolster a projected young and inexperienced bullpen. Over the past six seasons, Pedro Strop has been one of the top relievers in baseball.  However, 2019 saw Strop turn in one of the worst seasons of his career.  Whether it was age finally catching up to the 34-year-old, or the nagging hamstring issues that landed him on the injured list twice, Strop’s 4.97 ERA was a far cry from the 2.61 ERA he had averaged over the prior five seasons. Still, Strop managed a 10.58 K/9 and induced ground balls at a 52.9% rate.  It’s not unreasonable to believe that a return to health from his leg issues should result in Strop getting back to numbers closer to his career norms. Moreover, Strop’s experience closing – where he has racked up 23 saves over the past two seasons – could prove vital for a Mariners bullpen hoping to find a closer among its many relief prospects.

Mariners’ fans may remember Jesus Sucre’s tenure with the team when he served as a backup for parts of four seasons from 2013 to 2016.  Sucre doesn’t bring much with the bat, but he has always been an above average defender. Sucre began 2019 with the Orioles big league team but after producing a .210/.269/.242 in 20 games he accepted an assignment to Triple-A.  Labaton spent most of 2019 as the starting catcher at Tacoma until traded to the Dodgers in August for cash considerations. A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Lobatan does not offer the type of defense that Sucre brings, but his bat is a bit more potent, and his ability to switch-hit offers the Mariners a left-handed compliment to the right-handed hitting Narvaez.  Either catcher would offer affordable veteran depth until top catching prospect Cal Raleigh joins the Mariners, presumably at some point during the second half of the season.

Conclusion       

The Mariners two biggest question marks heading into 2020 will be the rotation and bullpen.  Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will try to win jobs behind Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi.  Not taking any chances, the Mariners hedge their bets with the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, and Patrick Weigel, all of whom are capable of starting but could also be used in relief.   Jace Fry adds experience to a bullpen that will consist mainly of relievers with no more than one year of MLB service time to their name.  And Pedro Strop’s experience in the closer’s role could help alleviate any possible problems should the Mariners not find a closer among their group of young, high upside relievers.

Moreover, none of the acquisitions hinder prospect development, and all come with team friendly contracts that allow each to be easily traded if need be.

Dipoto has made it clear that most of the playing time in the coming season will be provided to those players who figure prominently in the organization’s foreseen 2021 launching point for playoff contention.  As such, the Mariners primary focus should be to acquire players who can support, guide, and nurture the inexperience that will seemingly saturate the 25-man roster, and the offseason moves mentioned above hopefully do just that.

Seattle Mariners 2019 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Re-imagine.

That is the word of the day.

No, not because the Mariners would like to re-imagine a 2018 season that saw the team sprint out to a 59-38 first half record giving fans visions of their first playoff appearance since 2001, only to then stumble to a 31-34 second half record that resulted in a 17th straight year of missing the post season.

Rather, re-imagine, as in GM Jerry Dipoto’s stated offseason plan heading into the 2019 season.

At the General Managers Meeting in Carlsbad, California, Dipoto talked about his offseason intentions to re-imagine the state of the Mariners.

“We’re open-minded to different ways we can get better, but what we’re hoping to achieve is to re-imagine our roster to look at it in terms of what is our quickest path to a championship club.”

Dipoto continued.

“We know what the Astros, Red Sox, A’s, Yankees and Indians look like. We don’t want to be a perpetual competitor for the second Wild Card. We want to build a championship roster…[w]hether through free agency or trade, we want to gather as much talent as we can.”

In other words, the Mariners are at a crossroads.

For the most part, Dipoto has maximized the dreadful minor league system he inherited by flipping the best of the worst prospects for a young core of MLB producers such as Ben Gamel, James Pazos, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales. And with James Paxton finally establishing himself as a true ace, Edwin Diaz transforming into an elite closer, and Robinson Cano still a very productive hitter, the Mariners have the talent to compete for a Wild Card. But Dipoto has his eyes set on being a World Series contender, and he is astute enough to know that his roster is a few pieces short of moving up to that level.

And therein lies the challenge.  With a reticence towards trading away top prospects due to the organization’s goal of rebuilding the minor league system, and the unlikelihood of being able to move any of the team’s veterans due to their hefty contracts, how does one make the necessary moves to elevate to the class of World Series contender?

The answer is to either raise payroll to allow for the acquisition of premiere free agents, or to deal off one or two of your young productive core players in exchange for a handful of highly rated MLB-ready prospects who you hope will reach their projected star potential.

Based on Dipoto’s track record and recent comments, it appears he is planning to go the route of the latter.

Last season we contended that the Mariners starting rotation merely had to stay healthy in order to provide the type of production needed for a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  And that notion held true.

In a reversal from 2017, Mariners starting pitchers avoided injury and, as a result, produced 77 quality starts, raising their near league worst number from the year before to the 8th best mark last season. With the rotation healthy and able to provide quality starts throughout the season, the starting staff was worth 11.7 fWAR, ranking them 5th in the league.  In addition, the bullpen, led by Edwin Diaz’s MLB-best 57 saves, tallied a 5.1 fWAR, also ranking them 5th in the league.

The offense, however, was a different story.

Despite receiving solid run production during the first three months of the season (4.4 runs/game through June), injuries to Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon, an 80 game PED suspension to Cano, and year-long struggles by Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino eventually became a weight too heavy to bear.  July slumps by Haniger, Segura, and Cruz would then bring the offense to its knees,  and the Mariners would go on to score just 3.3 runs/game over the  final three months of the season.

Most concerning, however, was the realization that once through the top half of the order (Haniger, Segura, Cruz and Cano) the Mariners received minimal production from the rest of the lineup.  In other words, the offense lacked length and, as a result, once an opposing pitcher worked past the first few hitters of the lineup, the rest posed little threat.

While the starting rotation and bullpen are two areas that can always benefit from another addition or two, Dipoto’s main objective heading into the offseason must be to create a more balanced batting order that will receive production throughout the entire lineup, not just from a few players.  With limited resources at his disposal, Dipoto may need to be creative in how he re-imagines his roster into one that can challenge the elite teams like Houston, Boston and New York.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for the 2019 Mariners. So, without further ado…

Trade SP James Paxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers for SP Alex Wood, OF Alex Verdugo, and SP Dustin May

The Skinny: James Paxton and Edwin Diaz are Dipoto’s two most valuable trade assets. And with Paxton being a free agent in two years, the decision is to maximize his trade value by dealing him to a team looking to win it all in 2019.  Here, the key returns for the Mariners are center fielder Alex Verdugo and starting pitcher Dustin May, the #32 and #69 rated MLB prospects coming into 2018.  Verdugo, 22, is MLB-ready and possesses all the attributes Dipoto is looking for in a young player: athleticism, pure hitting ability, zone control, and plus defense. Blocked in Los Angeles due to a crowded outfield, Verdugo would immediately be penciled in as the Mariners opening day center fielder.  May, 21, is a lanky 6’6” 21-year-old righty who contains four quality pitches including a plus fastball that touches upper 90’s. A projected frontline starter, May would require another year of development in the minors before joining the Mariners rotation. To help bridge that one-year gap while also replacing Paxton’s productivity, the Mariners acquire 27-year-old Alex Wood who will enter free agency after the 2019 season. A fixture atop the Dodgers rotation the past several years, Wood made 27 starts in 2018 and produced a 3.65 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.72 xFIP, a 3.36 K/BB ratio, and a 49.2% ground ball rate.  Despite having Wood in the rotation for just one season, the Mariners would have the option of offering Wood a qualifying offer at season’s end where they would be in position to possibly receive a compensatory first-round draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming his contract is for at least $50M).

Trade 3B Kyle Seager to San Diego Padres for LF Wil Myers

The Skinny: The Mariners would love to get out from under Kyle Seager’s contract. However, without taking on most of the money still owed to him, trading Seager is a near impossibility.  In addition, the return they would receive would most likely be uninspiring.  So instead, the Mariners and Padres execute a one-for-one trade involving two historically productive players, signed to similarly bad contracts, who are both coming off down seasons.  Deals of this nature are somewhat unusual, but this one benefits both teams involved on several fronts.  With a crowded outfield and  Eric Hosmer – last year’s big free agent acquisition – entrenched at first base, the Padres no longer have to continue the Wil Myers experiment at third base as they now add a gold glover at the hot corner who is still in his prime and just a few years removed from a season where he received MVP consideration. Additionally, Seager’s remaining contract of three years/$56M is one year and $8M less than Myers’ outstanding commitment. For the Mariners, the 27-year-old Myers would be an upgrade over Gamel in left field, and although the Mariners would be taking on a contract that is slightly longer and more expensive than the one being giving up, the roster would get younger and Myers’ $3M owed in 2019 would free up $16M for Dipoto to spend elsewhere.

Trade RP Chasen Bradford & OF Guillermo Heredia to the Philadelphia Phillies for 3B Maikel Franco.

The Skinny: With Seager dealt to the Padres, the Mariners turn to Philadelphia to fill their third base vacancy. Once considered the future at third base after slashing a .280/.343/.497 his rookie season while also showing a strong arm and good range, Maikel Franco has underwhelmed since. Over the past three seasons, Franco has averaged a .250/.299/.431 and shown a propensity to chase pitches outside the strike zone. And his defense has declined from being slightly above average in 2016 (+2.5 UZR) to below average in 2018 (-5.0 UZR). With rumors circulating that the Phillies are looking to move on from their former top prospect, Franco’s young age (26), raw abilities, and control (free agent in 2022) should make him a target for the Mariners.

Sign Lonnie Chisenhall to a two year/$10M contract.

The Skinny: Can one (re)imagine what Lonnie Chisenhall could do if he just stayed healthy? To get a sense of what that could look like, one would have to go back to 2016 when Chisenhall slashed a solid .286/.328/.439 with 38 extra base hits in 418 plate appearances. Shoulder and nagging calf injuries have limited his playing time since then, but when healthy enough to step into the batter’s box (111 games, 365 at-bats) Chisenhall showed he can still wield a productive bat by putting up a rather gaudy .297/.368/.503.  With Nelson Cruz headed towards a free agent payday that will undoubtedly be too rich for the Mariners’ liking, and Dipoto hinting he would prefer to move away from a DH-only type of player, the more versatile Chisenhall can step in as the primary designated hitter where reduced field time will (hopefully) keep him off the disabled list, in addition to being able to play third base or a corner outfield position should the occasional need arise. 

Sign SP Charlie Morton to a three year, $48M contract.

The Skinny: At age 34, Charlie Morton continues to defy father time. Last year Morton produced one of the best seasons of his career by posting a record of 15-3 (30 starts) with a 3.13 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.42 xFIP and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. In addition, the right-hander continued to show impressive velocity (mid-90’s fastball) and a good ability to keep the ball on the ground (47%). While two years would be a preferred contract length for someone about to turn 35, offering three years is not unreasonable as Rich Hill, at age 36, signed a three year/$48M deal with the Dodgers just prior to the 2017 season. And with Morton showing no signs of slowing down, the Mariners should feel confident he will remain productive throughout the life of the contract.

Sign INF/OF Josh Harrison to a one year, $4M contract with a second year $4M player option and $2M team buyout.

The Skinny: Last season, veteran Andrew Romine served as the Mariners primary utility player where he saw time at every position other than catcher and pitcher. In that role, Romine played in 75 games, slashed a .210/.260/.244, struck out at a near 30% clip, and produced a woeful 44 wRC+.  Looking for more offense, the Mariners ink the versatile Josh Harrison who is capable of playing second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and right field. A career .277/.317/.408 hitter, Harrison played in 97 games last season and slashed a .250/.293/.363 with a 78 wRC+. While those numbers are a slight dip from his career numbers, Harrison is just one-year removed from producing a .272/.339/.432, 104 wRC+, and a 2.6 fWAR playing 128 games played at second base, third base, and left field.  Even if Harrison repeats his numbers from last season, such production will be a fairly significant upgrade over Romine.

The 25-Man  

Infield: 1B Robinson Cano ($24M); 2B Dee Gordon ($13.3M); SS Jean Segura ($14.85M); 3B Maikel Franco ($5.1M); C: Mike Zunino ($4.2M)

Outfield: LF Wil Myers ($5.5M); CF Alex Verdugo ($500K); RF Mitch Haniger ($600K)

Designated Hitter: Lonnie Chisenhall ($5M)

Bench: UT Josh Harrison ($4M); OF Ben Gamel ($600K); C David Freitas ($500K)

Rotation: Charlie Morton ($16M); Alex Wood ($9M); Mike Leake ($11M); Marco Gonzales ($900K); Wade LeBlanc ($2.3M)/Felix Hernandez ($27.86M)

Bullpen: Roenis Elias ($1M); James Pazos ($500K); Matt Festa ($500K); Shawn Armstrong ($500K); Juan Nicasio ($9.25M); Alex Colome ($7.3M); Edwin Diaz ($500K); LeBlanc/Hernandez

The Wrap

Our offseason plan involves six moves that total $45.1M.  Adding in players already under contract and projected arbitration figures, this would bring the opening day 25-man payroll to roughly $166M, which would be an increase of about $8M from last year.

The plan is a two-prong approach that keeps in line with how Dipoto has gone about restructuring the Mariners. On one hand, Dipoto continues to add younger controlled players like Verdugo, May and Myers who project as productive foundational pieces moving forward. On the other hand, proven veterans are also brought in on reasonable short-term deals, such as Wood, Morton, and Harrison, who will provide upgraded production to help improve upon last seasons 89 wins. 

In addition, a few of the transactions are made with the intent of not just upgrading one particular position, but triggering a domino effect that upgrades other positions as well.

For example, while Verdugo’s offensive skills project highly at the MLB level, his defense should be an immediate upgrade over both Gordon and Guillermo Heredia in center field. With Verdugo in center, Gordon can remain at second base where he is a better defender than Cano, and Cano can then move to first base where he would be a significant upgrade over Healy.

Likewise, Myers’ offense (25 doubles, 11 homeruns in 2018) and defense (3.4 UZR, +4 DRS) is not only an upgrade in left field, but would then allow Gamel to become the team’s fourth outfielder where he should prove superior to Heredia, who slashed a meager .236/.318/.342 and provided a -10 DRS in the outfield.

On the pitching front, a Charlie Morton-Alex Wood tandem at the top of the rotation represents a much stronger one-two punch over last season’s Felix Hernandez-James Paxton duo, as the former combined for 5.7 fWAR while the latter totaled 4.1 fWAR. Moreover, the additions of Morton and Wood, followed by Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales, would then provide the Mariners the ability to use either Hernandez or Wade LeBlanc in a swing role, splitting their respective time between long relief and starting.

Of course, the offseason is not without taking  few chances on players looking to reach their upside on a consistent basis.  Throughout his career, Franco has flashed moments of his projected star ceiling, none more than last year when he carried the Phillies’ offense for the entire month of July by slashing a .330/.378/.593 with seven home runs.  And Chisenhall has shown he is more than capable of being an .800 OPS hitter when healthy.

One may have noticed no moves were made in regard to the Mariners’ bullpen.  This was by design as relievers are typically the most overpaid, yet most volatile, players on a roster and rarely live up to the contracts they are given.  Moreover, the organization’s minor league system is deep with hard throwing relievers nearing the majors, as well as the fact that the Mariners will return a bevy of solid bullpen arms who pitched for them last season.  

One decision Dipoto will have to make regarding the bullpen is whether to carry seven or eight relievers.  Such a decision will have a direct effect on what the team does with Healy and Dan Vogelbach, the latter of which is out of options.  If Dipoto chooses to carry seven relievers, then a choice will need to be made as to who to keep as a bench piece.  With Healy still having options, our preference would be to start him at Tacoma and give Vogelbach another opportunity to prove himself at the major league level.  However, the Mariners are sure to keep eight relievers meaning Vogelbach – at some point – will have to be traded, with Healy beginning the year as a Rainier.  

With the Trade Deadline Approaching, Mariners Should Look at Kevin Gausman

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Despite being 19 games above .500 with a record of 58-39 and in sole possession of the second wild card, the Mariners limped into the All-Star break losers of their last three series including a three game sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Now, after four days of regrouping, the Mariners will push off into the final 65 games of the season looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Part of that “regrouping” will include GM Jerry Dipoto surveying the MLB landscape in hopes of bringing aboard another pitcher prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline to help lessen the workload of his rotation.

In recent weeks, Dipoto has stated an interest in supplementing his rotation with another pitcher, whether that be a starter or reliever.

“[W]e’re not particularly looking to replace anybody because they have all been really strong contributors to what we’re doing. It’s a good group of five. If we have a chance to augment it, we will. But we’re not looking to replace anybody. They’ve all done such a nice job…The only real concern with our starting rotation is as the innings start to pile up, there’s going to be guys who go into innings thresholds and zones they’ve never been to before. We want to be conscious of that.”

Those “inning thresholds” Dipoto speaks of are primarily in regard to the Mariners’ two most inexperienced starters, Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Gonzales has already surpassed his career total in innings (113.1) while LeBlanc has tossed the most innings in a season (85.0 ) since 2010 when he started 25 games for the San Diego Padres and logged 146.0 innings.

But there is some concern regarding a couple of their veteran hurlers as well.

Last season, James Paxton set career highs in games started with 24 and innings pitched with 136.0. This year Paxton has already started 19 games and logged 118.2 innings, and will surely blow past his career highs set last year.

In a precautionary move aimed at taking advantage of the extra off days coinciding with the All-Star break, the Mariners placed Paxton on the 10-day disabled list after exiting his last start with back stiffness.

Felix Hernandez – with 19 starts and 105.1 innings pitched – has already surpassed the number of games started (16) and innings pitched (86.2) from last year’s injury riddled campaign, and is on pace to eclipse his 2016 totals.

And like Paxton, the Mariners placed Hernandez on the 10-day disabled list just before the All-Star break as a protective measure to rest a sore back.

Given the unease towards the rotation’s workload, and now the emergence of possible health issues to two of their experienced rotation pieces, the addition of another arm for the rotation would likely make the most sense for the Mariners.

With Dipoto not wanting to replace any of his current starters, the Mariners could conceivably utilize a six-man rotation allowing Gonzales and LeBlanc to share the fifth starter duties, and provide Paxton and Hernandez the ability to take a day off when needed.

Additionally, another starter would also provide insurance in case of injury and a subsequent stint on the disable list.

Of course, that begs the question: What starting pitcher is available that not only fits the Mariners needs, but is a realistic option in terms of cost?

In the past month, the Mariners have been connected to Cole Hamels of the Rangers, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Hamels and Happ are experienced pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, and either would help the Mariners.

However, both would be rentals as Happ is a free agent at the end of the season, and Hamels’ $20M team option for 2019 would surely be too expensive for the Mariners to pick up. It is difficult envisioning Dipoto spending the necessary prospects to acquire either of the veteran pitchers given the limited tenure that each bring with them.

Alternatively, Boyd would be a more attractive option as he will not be arbitration eligible until 2020, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2022 season.

But Boyd’s career 5.29 ERA (4.81 FIP), and 4.76 ERA this season (4.26 FIP) are numbers the Mariners could receive from in-house options such as Christian Bergman (career 5.54 ERA, 5.01 FIP), Roenis Elias (career 4.15 ERA, 4.33 FIP), or Erasmo Ramirez (career 4.48 FIP).

Others who have been mentioned as possible trade options for teams looking to add starting pitching are Tyson Ross of the Padres, James Shields of the White Sox, Kyle Gibson of the Twins, Matt Harvey of the Reds, Ivan Nova of the Pirates, and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rays.

All of the above-mentioned players could be helpful additions to the Mariners rotation. But questions regarding health (Ross, Eovaldi, Harvey) or production (Shields, Gibson, Nova) makes any cost-benefit analysis lean more towards doubtful than favorable.

One name that has received little trade deadline attention but who would fit nicely in the Mariners rotation is Kevin Gausman.

The fourth overall pick of the 2012 draft and former No. 20 MLB prospect has been a solid fixture in the Orioles rotation since 2014.

Since joining the big league club in 2013, Gausman has produced a 4.22 ERA, (4.20 FIP, 3.95 xFIP), a 3.04 K/BB ratio and has averaged 5.7 innings per start. He is tracking those career numbers this season with a 4.33 ERA (4.46 FIP, 3.89 xFIP), 3.59 K/BB ratio, and averaging 5.9 innings per start.

While those numbers are solid, his inability to reach the expectations of becoming a Cy Young caliber ace has been a growing frustration for Orioles’ fans and organization.

But Gausman’s raw abilities can’t be ignored.

His fastball averages 94 mph and is still capable of touching upper 90’s. His changeup, often recognized as one of the best in baseball, sits low 80’s and has tremendous movement. And his slider bites suddenly and sharply making it an effective out pitch.

In addition, Gausman misses bats at an above league average rate (11.5 swSTR%), and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB rate).

Furthermore, Gausman is just entering his prime at age 27, is making a team-friendly $5.6M this year, and won’t hit the free agent market until after the 2020 season.

There have been no indications that the Orioles are willing to move Gausman, specifically. But with an aging roster and the second worst record in all of baseball, Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM Dan Duquette has stated his team will be moving forward with a rebuild of its roster and baseball operations.

If the Orioles are seriously committed to a complete overhaul, then Gausman should be available for the right offer. But what would that “right offer” have to be?

Any trade proposal would have to start with Kyle Lewis, the Mariners top prospect. It would then have to include a couple more top organizational prospects.

A starting point could be a package consisting of Lewis, starting pitcher Max Povse, and outfielder Anthony Jimenez.

Here, the Mariners would be trading the No. 67 overall rated MLB prospect (Lewis) along with their organization’s No.7 (Povse) and No. 13 (Jimenez) prospects. That package could be tweaked by adding a young player with some MLB experience such as Daniel Vogelbach or even Guillermo Heredia.

Which is reasonable considering last season:

–The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (age 27, 2.5 years of control) from the Athletics for two top-100 MLB prospects in infielder Jorge Mateo (#85) and right-handed starting pitcher James Kaprielian (#87), as well as outfield prospect Dustin Fowler.

–The Chicago Cubs acquired Jose Quintana (age 28, 1.5 years of control) from the Chicago White Sox for two top-100 MLB rated prospects in outfielder Eloy Jimenez (#14) and starting pitcher Dylan Cease (#97), in addition to first base prospect Matt Rose, and infield prospect Bryant Flete.

–The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander (age 34, 2.5 years of control) from the Detroit Tigers for one top-100 MLB rated prospect in starting pitcher Franklin Perez (#54), outfield prospect Daz Cameron (2016’s #74 rated prospect) and catching prospect Jake Rogers.

Gausman is not on the same level as Gray, Quintana, and even Verlander, so he’s not going to command two top-100 MLB prospects like those three did. However, his age, affordability, contract status, and upside should net the Orioles one mid to lower end top-100 prospect.

Naturally, parting with Lewis would be a tough pill to swallow given the dearth of blue chip talent in the Mariners’ minor league system.

Lewis is arguably the one Mariners prospect with star potential. However, early into his professional career, Lewis has already had to deal with a serious knee injury that has not only set back his development, but has raised question whether the knee can hold up to the wear and tear of playing center field.

Many in the Mariners organization believe a move to a corner outfield position is inevitable for Lewis, especially after the Mariners’ recent selection of centerfielder Josh Stowers in the second round of this year’s amateur draft.

If such a move occurs, it will present an interesting future dilemma for the Mariners.

With right field currently occupied for the foreseeable future by All-Star Mitch Haniger, Lewis’ path to the big leagues will lead him to left field.

Then there is 17-year-old Julio Rodriguez, slashing a robust .336/.422/.518 in the Dominican Summer League, who also profiles as a future corner outfielder and middle of the order power bat, and who is projected to reach the big leagues just a year or two after Lewis.

See the predicament?

With Haniger entrenched in right field, and both Lewis and Rodriguez on a trajectory towards left field, something – or someone – is going to have to give.

Considering these factors, if the Mariners believe Rodriguez is the real deal then moving Lewis for productive and controllable pitching makes sense.

Of course, the Mariners have been down this same road before with the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard trade. So naturally, there will be wariness.

But unlike Bedard, Gausman has been durable and injury free throughout his career.

And if the Mariners can get Gausman to take that next step, they will have found what every team dreams of finding: extreme value in impact starting pitching.

Seattle Mariners 2018 Preview, Offseason Plan

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For GM Jerry Dipoto, the 2017 season didn’t go exactly as planned. 

Fresh off a 2016 campaign that saw the Mariners finish 87-75 and eliminated from playoff contention on the second to last day of the regular season, Dipoto had visions of ending baseball’s longest playoff drought by bolstering the team’s starting pitching. To accomplish this, Dipoto boldly dealt away the talented, yet, inconsistent and long ball-prone Taijuan Walker; swiftly added Drew Smyly via a series of trades; swapped a pair of one-year contracts to acquire Yovani Gallardo; and added Christian Bergman, Chris Heston, and Chase De Jong to Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio as Triple A depth pieces. 

With expectations that ace James Paxton and former ace Felix Hernandez would be fully healthy, and Hisashi Iwakuma had at least one more season left in his arm that could produce something close to the 16 wins, 4.12 ERA, and 199 innings that he provided the year before, the Mariners felt pretty confident about their rotation heading into the new season. 

But that optimism was short lived, and came crashing down faster than pulling the wrong block in a game of Jenga.  

By the end of May, the rotation Dipoto assembled had been completely decimated by injuries.

Smyly’s season came to an end before it ever started as he was lost for the year during  Spring Training. Paxton was placed on the disabled list for four weeks just after his fifth start.  He would land there again in August for another five weeks.  

Hernandez promptly followed suit, being placed on the disabled list for two months after his fifth start.  And like Paxton, he would end up there again in July for six more weeks.  

Even the ever-reliable Iwakuma wasn’t immune to what was occurring to the starting staff.  After his sixth start, Iwakuma was placed on the disabled list and never returned.   

To really understand the dire nature of things, consider that Gallardo – acquired in hopes he could bounce back from his 6-8 record and a 5.82 ERA in 2016 – suddenly went from fifth starter to staff ace.  And as if all that wasn’t bad enough, Gallardo was replaced by rookie Andrew Moore in June due to ineffectiveness.

DEFCON level 1, anyone?

All said and told, the opening day rotation combined to start a total of just 68 games in 2017.  

Dipoto now heads into the offseason tasked with the same job as last offseason: upgrade the starting rotation.  Presumably, Iwakuma, Smyly, and Gallardo will not be back (although Iwakuma or Smyly could return on a minor league deal) leaving Dipoto the responsibility of finding three starting pitchers to join Paxton and Hernandez.  Dipoto got a head start in this endeavor by acquiring Mike Leake from the Cardinals at the end of August, who now heads into 2018 as the Mariners’ #3 starter.  Dipoto also made moves to acquire Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Albers, and Marco Gonzales, all of whom will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.

In addition to addressing the starting pitching, the Mariners will need to find a first baseman to replace departing free agents Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso.  Dipoto will also need to find a replacement for Jarrod Dyson who split time with Guillermo Heredia in center field. 

Dipoto has shown a preference – perhaps obsession – for filling needs via trade. However, with most of Dipoto’s draft picks still developing in the lower minors, and most of the “better” prospects left over from the Jack Zduriencik era having already been traded for players now at the major league level, Dipoto may have to bite the bullet and go the route of free agency to fill his team needs.

What transpires below is our offseason plan for 2018 that we believe can land the Mariners in the playoffs.  So, without further ado…

  • Trade CL Edwin Diaz and OF Guillermo Heredia to the Atlanta Braves for SP Julio Teheran and OF Christain Pache.

Did we actually say the Mariners may have to go the route of free agency rather than trade to fill needs?  Scratch that.

Yes, dealing Diaz is a bold move, and one that would essentially create two needs at the cost of filling just one. But being able to acquire a #2 caliber pitcher at just $31M over the next three years is a bargain in today’s market.  Plus, there is no sense in retaining a young electric closer if you lack a rotation that can pitch well enough to help you win games.  Teheran is a #2/#3 type starter who over the past five seasons owns a 57-52 record, a 3.55 ERA, an average of 197.0 innings tossed, and a near 40% ground ball rate.   The two time All-Star struggled a bit in 2017, recording an 11-13 record with a 4.49 ERA, the highest of his career.  However, those numbers may be attributed to hitter-friendly SunTrust Stadium where Teheran went 3-10 with a 5.86 ERA.  On the road, Teheran profiled much closer to his career numbers by going 8-3 with a 3.14 ERA.  That kind of production would make the 27 year old Teheran the perfect fit right behind Paxton in the rotation.

The Mariners also acquire Atlanta’s #10 prospect in Pache.  Known for speed, defense, and athleticism, Pache is a younger version of Heredia.  Pache spent 2017 in Class A where he hit .281, produced a .335 on base percentage, and swiped 32 bases.  Pache is still a few seasons away from making the jump to the majors, but profiles as an everyday centerfielder.  However his current path is blocked by the presence of Atlanta’s top prospect (and baseball’s #10 overall rated prospect), center fielder Ronald Acuna, who slashed a .344/.393/.548 at Class AAA last season and is primed to break into the majors.  With Acuna projected to be Atlanta’s centerfielder for the foreseeable future, Pache would have to move to a corner outfield position where his lack of power (.343 slugging percentage in 2017) would diminish his overall value. 

For Atlanta, Diaz allows the Braves the option of moving Arodys Vizcaino back to his setup role after taking over the closer role from 34 year old Jim Johnson, who struggled with eight blown saves and a 5.56 ERA.  Heredia provides the Braves youth, speed, defense, and athleticism to an aging outfield that saw 32 year old Matt Kemp (115 games) and 33 year old Nick Markakis (160 games) handle most of the duties in left and right fields.  

  • Sign 1B Carlos Santana to a 4 year/$56M contract.

The Mariners haven’t been able to find a long(ish) term solution at first base since Richie Sexson played the position from 2005 to 2008. In the nine seasons since the Sexson era, the Mariners have seen six different players start a season at first base, including last year’s starter, Danny Valencia, who slashed a .256/.314/.411 with 15 home runs.  The Mariners did pick up Yonder Alonso in the second half in an attempt to increase production at the position, and were rewarded with a .265/.353/.439 and six home runs in 42 games.  With both Valencia and Alonso free agents, the Mariners end the revolving door at first base by signing the switch hitting 31 year old Santana to a four year deal. Over the past five seasons, Santana has averaged a .250/.366/.447, 25 home runs, and gold glove type defense.  Last year alone, Santana slashed a .259/.363/.455 and 23 home runs. 

  • Sign OF Jon Jay to a 2 year/$15M contract. 

With the trade of Heredia to the Braves, and Jarrod Dyson’s pending departure via free agent, the Mariners turn to Jay for outfield help.  Jay, 32, is no longer an every day player, and cannot cover the same amount of ground he once did in his younger days. However, Jay is still capable of providing average defense at all three outfield positions. And with Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel both capable of playing center, the Mariners have the option of utilizing a rotation at the position to alleviate the need for any one person to play there full time.  While Jay would be a step down from Heredia and Dyson in terms of defense and speed, he would be an offensive upgrade over both players.  Jay slashed a .296/.374/.375 in 141 games in 2017, and because he doesn’t carry significant hitting splits, Jay can be used against left and right handed pitching.

  • Sign SP Jaime Garcia to a 2 year/$20M contract with $12M option.

Dipoto has developed an appetite for ground ball pitchers.  After the 2016 season, Dipoto flipped the script by announcing that Safeco Field is actually not a good home for fly ball pitchers.  Under this new assessment, Dipoto focused his attention on ground ball pitchers, picking up Leake and his career 51.1% ground ball rate, as well as Ramirez and his 44.8% ground ball rate.  With trips to the disabled list by Paxton and/or Hernandez a likely possibility in 2018, adding some more rotation should be on Dipoto’s to-do list.  The 31 year old Garcia brings with him a career 56.2% ground ball rate, and fits right in with Dipoto’s growing number of starters who can keep the ball on the ground.  While Garcia’s past has seen him deal with his fair share of injuries, he’s been a model of good health for the past two seasons, averaging 29 starts and 164 innings pitched. 

  • Trade SP Oliver Jaskie and OF Chuck Taylor to Kansas City for RP Joakim Soria.

With Diaz gone to Atlanta, Dipoto must find someone to anchor the back of the bullpen.  Several in-house candidates do exist for Dipoto to choose from.  Veteran setup men David Phelps and Nick Vincent could slide into the closers role.  The hard throwing James Pazos, who tallied a 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings last year, is a viable option, as are fellow fire ballers Tony Zych, Dan Altavilla, and Shae Simmons.  But rather than weaken a strong setup tandem, or roll the dice that one of his young high-octane relievers can suddenly step in and handle the pressures that comes with the closer’s gig, Dipoto opts to trade for the veteran Soria to stabilize the back of the bullpen.  With one year and $9M remaining on his contract (plus a $10M mutual option for 2018) Soria provides the Mariners another proven veteran arm at the back end of the bullpen with plenty of closing experience.  After solidifying himself as one of baseball’s dominant closers during his first nine seasons, averaging 25 saves and a 2.57 ERA, Soria served as the Royals’ late inning setup man to closers Wade Davis (2016) and Kelvin Herrera (2017) the past two years where he averaged a 3.89 ERA and 9.7 strikeouts per 9 innings. 

  • Sign OF Leonys Martin to a 1 year/$1M contract.

Yes, we know that Martin hit a horrendous .174/.221/.287 with the Mariners last year.  And, yes, we know he was released as a result.  And double yes, we realize Martin hit even worse after being picked up by the Cubs.  But we’re not eyeing Martin as a starting outfielder.  Rather, we’re talking fourth outfielder here.  One who can spell Gamel, Jay, or Haniger.  And even though Martin was pretty atrocious at the plate in 2017, the guy plays all three outfield positions, can flash the leather, and runs the bases well.  Those attributes alone make Martin a decent (and affordable) option as a late inning defensive replacement, a pinch runner, and occasional starter even if his bat should remain dormant for s second straight year.  But with 2018 being just his age 30 season, odds are Martin’s offense will return closer to his career .247/.300/.360 numbers, which isn’t great by any means, but more than fine given what the rest of his game brings.

The Ohtani Factor

We should let it be understood that our offseason plan excludes the possibility of winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.  Why?  Well, because Ohtani is a complete wild card.  Since money is not an issue (Ohtani is subject to the league minimum) every team is a possible destination thereby making the answer to where Ohtani will end up anyone’s guess.  With the final decision completely out of the control of the teams wanting him and, instead, resting solely with Ohtani himself, for reasons that are only known to him, we decided it best to just eliminate Ohtani altogether.  To include him in our offseason plan would be like formulating a Seahawks offseason plan for the 1988 season centered around the acquisition of Brian Bosworth even though the supplemental draft lottery hadn’t taken place yet.  A bit nonsensical, to say the least. 

The 25-Man

Infield:  1B Carlos Santana ($14M); 2B Robinson Cano ($24M); SS Jean Segura ($9.5M); 3B Kyle Seager ($19M); C Mike Zunino ($3.2M)

Outfield:  LF Ben Gamel ($.50M); CF Jon Jay ( $7.5M); RF Mitch Haniger ($.50M) 

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz ($14.25M)

Bench:  UT Andrew Romine ($1.9M); OF Leonys Martin ($1M); C Mike Marjama ($.50M)

Rotation:  James Paxton ($5.6M); Julio Teheran ($8M); Mike Leake ($11M); Felix Hernandez ($26.8M); Jaime Garcia ($10M)

Bullpen: Marco Gonzales ($.50M); James Pazos ($.50M); Marc Rzepczynski ($5.5M); Erasmo Ramirez ($4.7M); Tony Zych ($.50M); David Phelps ($5.8M); Nick Vincent ($2.7M); Joakim Soria ($9.0M)

The Wrap 

Our offseason plan involves six moves that come in at a total cost of $49.5M.  This brings the total payroll to $186.45M, which would be an increase of just over $31M from last year.  That’s a pretty lofty jump in payroll, one that would have made the Mariners the fifth highest payroll team entering 2017.  But with roughly $42M coming off the books in the next two seasons due to the looming free agencies of Nelson Cruz and Felix Hernandez, the increase in payroll is manageable as the Mariners will have the option to bring that number down beginning in 2019 without having to drastically alter their roster.  

The big move, of course, was to acquire Teheran in order to pair another young top flight arm with Paxton.  With there still being some volatility with the rotation, adding a top shelf pitcher was a priority.  The other big move was the signing of Santana to a four year deal, which surpasses any other free agent deal handed out by Dipoto during his tenure as Mariners GM by two years.  In acquiring the switch hitter, the Mariners add another hitter who fits in with the team’s emphasis on controlling the hitting zone and getting on base.  In addition, Santana brings some power, evidenced by his 57 home runs and .477 slugging percentage the past two seasons.  And with his ability to hit from both sides of the plate eliminates the need to use a platoon at first base, thereby freeing up a bench spot for someone with a bit more versatility. 

Despite the addition of Teheran, the potential of injury to Paxton and/or Hernandez has us add further depth to the rotation with Garcia.  A proven veteran starter, Garcia would also allow Dipoto to use Erasmo Ramirez and/or Marco Gonzales out of the bullpen, where their respective abilities to toss multiple innings will help ease the burden of the rotation and bullpen.  (More on that later)

The outfield will see Jon Jay take over as the primary starting center fielder, although both Gamel and Haniger can see time there as well.  Leonys Martin returns to take over the fourth outfielder duties.  And utility man Andrew Romine, picked up off waives from Detroit after the season, will be able to slot in at a corner outfield position as well.  If the Mariners go with a four man bench, fellow utility man Taylor Motter could make the team again and see time in the outfield.  However, we’re guessing Dipoto goes with a three man bench in order to utilize an eight man bullpen during the season.

Ok, so it’s not really a “guess” that the Mariners may go with and eight man bullpen.  Dipoto has already stated that next year’s starters may be limited to going through a batting lineup just three times in an attempt to prevent wear and tear.  It has also been  indicated that relievers will be looked upon to toss multiple innings.  With all signs pointing to a bullpen expected to work more innings than it has in the past, carrying an additional reliever seems like the logical move.  And the acquisition of Joakim Soria not only adds a proven closer to replace Diaz, but someone who has had success in a set-up role as well.

So there you have it.  Six moves, a bump of $31M in payroll, and a team that is even deeper and more versatile than the one Dipoto put on the field in 2017.  Is it good enough to see the playoffs?   We believe so.   

 

As the Mariners Continue to Sink, Zduriencik Continues to Wait

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It’s like a scene out of the movie, Titanic.

The ship is sinking; passengers are drowning; and those few who were able to escape into the safety of life boats – knowing they need to go back and help those struggling to keep their heads above the frigid waters – are hesitant to do so for fear of a worst-case scenario taking place. And with each passing minute that goes by while those in charge debate over how and when the best time to act is, the situation simply becomes direr for those fighting to stay alive.

Unlike the Titanic, the Mariners haven’t hit a massive iceberg, quickly sinking them in their quest for the playoffs. Rather, it’s been more like a small leak in their hull since setting sail. One that the captain decided to patch with duct tape believing their destination could be reached before the situation became too critical.

But now, a little more than half-way to their terminus, it’s become apparent the duct tape isn’t holding; the good ship Mariner is quickly taking on water; and without addressing the problem, the ship and its crew will submerge before reaching port.

For most of the season, the Mariners have been carried by its pitching, where they currently rank 1st in the American League in BA against (.230), OBP against (.291), and WHIP (1.15); and 2nd in ERA (3.45) and OPS against (.644).  The Mariner offense, however, has been a far different story, ranking last in OBP (.300) and OPS (.675), and second to last in BA (.246) and RS per game (3.94).

And while the pitching continues to perform, the offense – as unfathomable as it may sound – finds itself in further decline.

As noted in a previous post, the Mariners offense this season has thrived in hitting with runners in scoring position. Upon concluding their three game series against the Astros on July 2nd, the Mariners were producing a .686 OPS and 4.2 runs per game. However, in their last 16 games since then, the Mariners have produced a .619 OPS and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. During that 16 game span, the Mariners have gone 6-10.

With such lackluster hitting, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners should feel fortunate to find themselves in the position they are in, and should feel confident about their playoff chances with the addition of an offensive piece or two.   The need for more offense is no secret, as the Mariners have been linked to nearly every available hitter out there. But with the trade deadline just over a week away, the Mariners continue to wait for the “right” deal to present itself while their competitors – the Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Royals, Tigers – have already made moves to strengthen their respective teams.

While it’s understandable that Zduriencik wants to be diligent with possibly dealing away a top prospect like Taijuan Walker, or taking on an aging veteran like Marlon Byrd, the waiting game can be a dangerous endeavor. Rather than identifying a need and quickly addressing it, the decision to wait for the perfect trade scenario can allow for circumstances to change and, thus, for opportunities to be lost.

The danger that can come from waiting too long should not be foreign to Zduriencik, as last year’s decision to try and wait out the market for Josh Hamilton ended up backfiring. While the Mariners appeared to be the only team willing to come close to Hamilton’s  asking price, Zduriencik’s drawn out negotiations with Hamilton allowed the Angels to have a change of heart and sign him in response to the Dodgers unexpected acquisition of Zack Greinke. Had the Mariners acted quickly and made their four-year plus two option years offer to Hamilton much earlier in the process, Zduriencik most likely would have gotten his man.

This past offseason, Zduriencik seemed to have learned from that mistake by jumping out into the forefront of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes. Rather than trying to wait out the market or prolong the negotiations by tinkering with low-ball offers – thereby allowing time for other teams to decide whether or not to join in the bidding – Zduriencik came out fast and furious by making an offer that just didn’t beat the Yankees 7-year, $160M offer, but obliterated it by an additional 3 years and $80M. For the first time in the Zduriencik era, the Mariners recognized a need, and then addressed that need quickly without allowing money to be an obstacle.

But that “see a need and immediately address it” approach has apparently gone by the wayside. With the Mariners’ grasp on the second wild card slowly slipping, and the need for offensive help resonating louder than a fog horn blaring through a midnight haze, Zduriencik continues to wait.

And so far, it’s been to the Mariners’ detriment.

With their starting pitching still hampered by injuries, and rookie Roenis Elias showing signs of wearing down, the Mariners had interest in acquiring Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel to shore up their rotation. However, before they could formulate an offer, the Athletics – also needing to bolster a rotation hit hard by the injury bug – quickly swooped in and traded for both players.

The Mariners then turned their sights on David Price and/or Ben Zobrist but wavered on the prospect of dealing Taijuan Walker and taking on Price’s contract. Those talks are now on hold as the once fading Rays suddenly find themselves winning, and now threatening the Mariners for the second wild card.

Early on, Byrd seemed like an obvious fit for the Mariners, as acquiring the 36-year old left fielder would probably not have required the Mariners to part with their top prospects. But interest in Byrd subsided as the Mariners pondered whether to agree to Byrd’s request to have his $8M option for 2016 guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. In the meantime, the Royals and Reds have emerged as strong contenders for Byrd’s services, and the Yankees recent trade for OF/3B Chase Headley has eliminated one more hitter from the pool of available bats, thereby increasing Byrd’s value as a result.

Probably the worst consequence of the Mariners’ hesitation is they have allowed the competition for offensive help amongst playoff contending teams to grow considerably. Three weeks ago, there were only 4 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Two weeks ago, there were 5 teams within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. Today, 7 teams are now within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card. By the July 31 deadline, 8 teams could be within 6 games of the Mariners and the second wild card, assuming of course the Mariners can hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays, both of whom are just 0.5 games back.

With their stellar pitching and defense, there is no question the Mariners could make a serious run in the playoffs. However, is there is enough offense, currently, to get them into October? Right now, all signs point to no. There are players available that would help right the ship. The question, though, is whether the Mariners will act in order to keep them afloat, or do nothing and risk plummeting in the wild card standings?   With only seven days to go before the trade deadline, the answer shall be known soon enough.