Tag Archives: trades

Seattle Mariners 2016 Preview, Offseason Plan

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Nearly a year after being pegged by most MLB experts as strong World Series contenders, the Mariners find themselves regrouping after a disappointing 76-86 season that resulted in the dismissal of General Manager, Jack Zduriencik.  To right the ship, President & Chief Operating Officer Kevin Mather turned the reigns over to ex-Los Angeles Angels GM, Jerry Dipoto, hoping his expertise in analytics and scouting will accomplish what Zduriencik was unable to do after seven (mostly) forgettable seasons: propel the Mariners into the post season.

Dipoto’s first step toward the playoffs was to revamp his coaching staff. Dipoto tapped Scott Servais to replace Lloyd McClendon as manager.  Dipoto then added Tim Bogar to serve as bench coach, Mel Stottlemyer Jr. as pitching coach, Manny Acta as third base coach, retained Edgar Martinez as hitting coach, and retained Chris Woodward as first base coach (Woodward has since turned down the offer in order to find a coaching position closer to his Florida home.)

Entering the offseason, Dipoto has made clear his priorities: more depth in his starting pitching, a stronger bullpen, more athletic defenders better suited to the dimensions of Safeco Field, and a better ability by hitters to get on base.  In other words, a roster completely opposite than what was previously put together under Zduriencik.

Of course, that won’t be an easy task as the Mariners are short on starting pitching, and possess an over-abundance of athletically-challenged, non-versatile, and strike-out prone position players better suited to the tidy confines of a Fenway Park rather than spacious Safeco Field.  To make matters worse, the minors fail to offer much in the way of MLB-ready pitching and position players who fit the Dipoto mold.  And with a to-do list that includes finding help at catcher, first base, all three outfield positions, a couple starting pitchers, and bullpen reinforcements, it’s no exaggeration to say Dipoto has his work cut out for him.

Which is most likely why Dipoto got an early jump to the offseason already by dealing shortstop Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison, and reliever Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for starting pitcher Nathan Karns, reliever C.J. Riefenhauser & minor league centerfielder, Boog Powell.  True to his vision, Dipoto’s first move as the Mariners GM saw him trade away a slow footed first baseman, a shortstop with glaring defensive shortcomings, and an inconsistent right handed reliever.  In return, the Mariners received a mid-rotation arm who immediately plugs into the starting rotation, left handed depth for the bullpen, and an athletic MLB-ready outfielder who can flash the leather and get on base.

Moving forward, Dipoto has much more work to do.  But as we previously wrote about, the right type of players are available in order to lift the Mariners into the playoffs.   Dipoto prefers acquiring players via trade rather than the free agent market.  But Dipoto simply does not have enough tradeable pieces to fix the Mariners through trade only.  To upgrade, Dipoto will have to dip into the free agent market.  Luckily, with a projected payroll of $130M (or more) for the 2016 season, Dipoto should have the necessary flexibility to acquire the resources he needs.

Without further ado…

  • Resign SP Hisashi Iwakuma to a three year, $33M contract.
  • Resign Franklin Gutierrez to a one year, $1M contract
  • Trade SP Roenis Elias, RP Tom Wilhelmsen, and 3B/OF Patrick Kivlehan to the New York Yankees for CF Brett Gardner.
  • Trade 1B Mark Trumbo to the Baltimore Orioles for RP Brian Matusz.
  • Sign RP Tyler Clippard to a three year, $18M contract
  • Sign OF Nori Aoki to a two year, $15M contract
  • Sign 1B Steve Pearce to a two year, $12M contract.
  • Sign C Chris Iannetta to a one year, $5M contract with an option year.
  • Sign RP Mark Lowe to a one year, $800K contract.

The Lineup

Position Players

  1. Brett Gardner, CF
  2. Nori Aoki, LF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Seth Smith, RF
  7. Steve Pearce, 1B
  8. Ketel Marte, SS
  9. Chris Iannetta, C

Bench

  1. Franklin Gutierrez, OF
  2. Chris Taylor, INF
  3. Jesus Sucre, C
  4. Jesus Montero, INF

Rotation

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. James Paxton
  3. Hisashi Iwakuma
  4. Taijuan Walker
  5. Nate Karns

Bullpen

  1. Tony Zych
  2. Mayckol Guaipe
  3. Mark Lowe
  4. Brian Matusz (L)
  5. Charlie Furbush (L)
  6. Carson Smith
  7. Tyler Clippard

Analysis

Here, Dipoto makes a series of moves to address his desire of making the Mariners a much deeper team both in starting pitching and athletic defenders who can get on base.  Last season the Mariners finished 11th in the American League in on-base percentage (OBP) and tallied the second highest strikeout totals.  The Mariners also produced the third worst ultimate zone rating (UZR ) in the American League with a -29.6. Worse, the Mariners finished dead last in defensive runs saved (DRS) with -60, while the next closest team was the White Sox with -39.

Dipoto has stated his first order of business is to resign Iwakuma for the rotation.  For the past three seasons, Iwakuma has teamed with Felix Hernandez to form one of the best pitching duos in the American League.  Iwakuma missed roughly two months last year due to a strained lat muscle, but dominated hitters after he returned by posting a 9-4 record in 17 starts, a 3.10 era, a .230 BA against, with 100 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 113.1 innings pitched.  Yes, Iwakuma will turn 35 in 2016, but even if he starts to decline from his former ace-like self, he will still serve as a valuable middle of the rotation arm.

After resigning Iwakuma, Dipoto must turn his attention to two major areas of need: center field and catcher.

By acquiring Gardner, Dipoto not only finds a capable center fielder, but someone who can leadoff and allow rookie Ketel Marte to move down in the batting order.  Last season, Gardner produced a .259/.343/.399 including a .291/.373/.462 up through the end of July.  However, Gardner slumped badly the final two months of the season, producing a combined .203/.288/.290 in August and September that tempered what had been one of the best offensive outputs of his career.  Defensively, Gardner spent most of 2015 in left field where he posted a -0.9 UZR and +1 DRS.  No longer the player he was back in 2008 and 2009, Gardner still has plenty of value (2.6 WAR last year) and a move back to his natural center field position may result in numbers closer to those of his last stint as an everyday center fielder (2013) where he posted a -0.5 UZR and a +6 DRS.  The Yankees may not be keen on trading away that type of production, but with Gardner mirroring the same skill-set as Jacoby Ellsbury, and still owed $39.5M over the next three years, moving Gardner to acquire needed pitching and payroll relief makes sense.  Of course, dealing away Elias who is cost controlled and who has shown success at the MLB level, along with a late-inning reliever in Wilhelmsen who has dominating stuff, may be dangerous territory for the Mariners.  But the addition of Karns to the rotation and the emergence of Carson Smith as a viable set-up man allows Dipoto the ability to move some pitching.

With Mike Zunino set to spend 2016 in the minors trying to reinvent himself as a hitter, the Mariners are in need an everyday catcher.  Dipoto’s first move as GM of the Angels back in 2011 was to acquire Iannetta from the Rockies, so a reunion of the two would make sense.  A solid defensive player who works well with pitchers, Iannetta suffered through a down offensive year in 2015 where he slashed a .188/.293/.335 in 92 games.  However, the previous three seasons, Iannetta averaged a .238/.357/.386.  Odds are that Iannetta will revert back to something closer to those numbers, but even if he doesn’t, his 2015 numbers would still be a fairly large upgrade over the .159/.205/.258 the Mariners received out of catcher position last year.

If there was one area last season that killed the Mariners, it was the regression of the bullpen, specifically its inability to hold leads.  Upgrading the bullpen will be a must.  Here, the Mariners bring in Clippard to bolster their late inning relief corps.  A proven set-up man, Clippard also has success closing out games, as seen by his 32 saves for the Nationals in 2012, and 19 saves this past season for the Athletics and Mets.  Depending on how the Mariners use Carson Smith, Clippard will prove invaluable in the late innings either by bridging the gap to the closer, or as the closer himself.

With first baseman Mark Trumbo symbolizing everything Dipoto is not looking for in a player, dealing him to a team looking for power makes sense.  With first baseman Chris Davis a free agent and sure to land a contract out of the Orioles’ price range, the Mariners are able to offer Trumbo as a replacement for Davis at a fraction of the cost.   A former starter, Matusz has spent the last few years pitching out of the Orioles bullpen.  With the Mariners, Matusz would continue to serve that role while also offering the ability to move to the starting rotation if needed.

To fill the void at first base, the Mariners turn to Steve Pearce. Pearce lacks the raw power of Trumbo, but he provides more versatility due to his ability to play a corner outfield position as well as at second or third base.  In addition, Pearce doesn’t come with all the strikeouts that Trumbo does, and he costs half as much.  The downside is that Pearce struggled to a .218/.289/.422 last year (which, really, isn’t that far off from what Trumbo would give you).   The good new, however, is that Pearce’s track record shows much better, as seen by his .292/.373/.556 in 2014, and his .261/.362/.420 in 2013.

Lowe’s return to the Mariners last year resulted in one of his best seasons before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.   In 36 innings pitched for the Mariners, Lowe posted an impressive 1.00 ERA while striking out 47 batters and walking just 11.  Lowe made it known he wouldn’t mind returning to the Mariners in 2016. Dipoto places a great deal of value on strikeout and walk ratios.  With those numbers, the Mariners would be smart to bring the veteran reliever back.

Revamping the outfield will be an important ask for Dipoto.  Seth Smith returns as the regular right fielder against right handed pitching.  Gutiérrez showed last year that he can still wield a potent bat when healthy, producing a .292/.354/.620 and 15 home runs primarily against left handed pitching. Gutiérrez wants to return, and should the Mariners believe he can stay healthy for a second consecutive season, he would, once again, serve as the ideal compliment to Smith in right field.

The Mariners round out their outfield with the underrated Aoki.  While not a power hitter, all Aoki did last year was put up a solid .287/.353/.380 along with a 3.6 UZR in left field.  With Dipoto looking for defense, athleticism, and the ability to get on base, he’ll find all three with Aoki.

Conclusion

With the additions of Iwakuma, Clippard, Matusz and Lowe, the Mariners keep their starting pitching in tact while upgrading their bullpen.  Clippard would provide a closer option, thereby allowing Carson Smith to set-up in the 7th or 8th innings, and Matusz would provide added insurance for the starting rotation.  Dealing Elias and Wilhelmsen could prove risky considering the issues that took place with the starting rotation and bullpen in 2015. But the addition of Gardner in center field and Aoki in left field drastically upgrades an outfield that has been plagued defensively by the likes of Trumbo, Raul Ibanez, Logan Morrison and Nelson Cruz in years past.   While far from flashy, Iannetta and Pearce provide steady play at catcher and first base, with Gutierrez providing right handed thump against left handed pitching for below market cost.